09-13-2006, 03:16 PM | #601 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Blade, it takes awhile to change a rep. That said, I like you better when you are more active - it tends to lead to more creative collaboration when we are on the same team and when (more like a very big IF) I can finally earn your trust.
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09-13-2006, 03:19 PM | #602 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Appleton, WI
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Well folks, I am about to leave for the evening so I'll have to make a vote. I'm going to vote for someone that has been fairly quiet and who has voted for me twice. It isn't really much to go on but I have to vote for someone so...
Vote Bek |
09-13-2006, 03:29 PM | #603 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Frankenstein game(2 games ago) and some key notes about roles:
14. greyroofoo - killed, night 5 COUNT DRACULA 10. Bulletsponge - wolf 7. Chief Rum - wolf 4. tanglewood - Dr. Reimann The four bad guys, with the first 3 being the ones doing the night kills(and the key of why i went back, they choose to kill saldana on night one as well) 22. saldana - killed, Night 1 villager 6. Alan T - killed, night 2, villager 8. Lathum - staked, day 3, villager(by Reimann swap) Those are the first 3 deaths caused the by the bad guys(night 3 was GE, but hes not dead so i didnt feel it was relevant yet). So the 2 they have killed this game so far were 2 of the first 3 gone there. Of the bad guys, only greyroofoo is still alive(though bullet was, which may be noteworthy if you think we got a bad guy). Of the good ones, alan is still alive, which may speak badly of him. Overall, since we have nothing to go on, and i know this is really pulling at strings: VOTE GREYROOFOO
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Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
09-13-2006, 03:31 PM | #604 | ||
High School JV
Join Date: Aug 2005
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Quote:
Quote:
maybe he just wasnt sure who he wanted to attack and therefore held off...with only his first kill having a 90% chance you would want to make sure you make it count...because after that you are only 50/50 |
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09-13-2006, 03:31 PM | #605 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
I dont want to change my rep. I just want to live longer. Im just testing out different play styles to keep me alive long enough to enjoy the game. I dont have fun being killed in the first 3 days. Dont worry, ill be my regular self later in the game...im just trying to make it there first
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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09-13-2006, 03:32 PM | #606 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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After path's comment i doubt it highly now matt, so either he got really unlucky or is dead in my mind. I wouldnt hold off if i were him.
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
09-13-2006, 03:33 PM | #607 | |
High School JV
Join Date: Aug 2005
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Quote:
well...hope everything goes well with that adventure |
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09-13-2006, 03:33 PM | #608 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: here
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Quote:
wow, Blade. For once, I really like your analysis. I'll add that grey switched his vote last yesterday, which seemed suspicious to me and caused me to switch my vote to bullet, and may have caused Latham's switch too. |
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09-13-2006, 03:37 PM | #609 | |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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Quote:
ROFL, is this the wild scenario you spoke of yesterday? LOL, I gotta hand it to you Blade, you're very creative and I can't help but to find your research amusing. But you're right, at this point we have absolutely nothing and why the heck not. |
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09-13-2006, 03:38 PM | #610 |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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dola,
I'm not saying it's bad at all so I hope you don't take it the wrong way... it's totally meant as a compliment It keeps us talking though. |
09-13-2006, 03:39 PM | #611 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
No, this has nothing to do with my wild scenario...this is something i came up with after re-reading saldana complaining about dying on day 1 2 of the last 3 games. When i saw lathum died early there too i just let my imagination do the rest. The scenario i have in my head basically includes every player in the game somehow plotting against me, and some plotting against each other just as set-ups to plot against me
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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09-13-2006, 03:51 PM | #612 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Path, we know that Pilkington knows the identity of a Revolutionary. But does that Revolutionary know Pilkington? I don't think so, but want to be sure on this point.
Theory #1: Pilkington no night kill on N2, so he is dead (proposed by Hoops) Theory #2: Grey was trying to protect Bullet by moving his vote (alluded to by RealDeal in Post #608 just now) If the Revolutionaries do not know who Pilkington is, then how could Grey have been trying to save Pilkington (if it is Bullet)? I'm not yet prepared to think we have gotten both a Revolutionary and Pilkington (would be great, but statistically unlikely), which makes me skeptical of the idea that Grey was trying to save an evil teammate when he moved his vote late yesterday. |
09-13-2006, 03:51 PM | #613 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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OG run later tonight(like 7 or 8)?
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
09-13-2006, 03:52 PM | #614 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
2 Things...first of all, im not saying both are bad guys, becuase if they were again(they were in my example) that would be crazy...secondly, in your theory, why can both be plain wolves? Why must one be pilkington?
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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09-13-2006, 03:55 PM | #615 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Blade, if both are plain wolves then Pilkington is around to make his kill last night and we see two deaths this morning.
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09-13-2006, 03:57 PM | #616 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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Quote:
As stated in the rules, the revolutionaries know their own identity(ies) and also the identity of the Sympathizer. That is all.
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We have always been at war with Eastasia. |
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09-13-2006, 03:57 PM | #617 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
St. Cronin, Saldana, Lathum...all could have been pilkington as well...his kill is processed after the wolves kill, so all 3 kills occured before his kill would of last night. Not just bullet, note that please
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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09-13-2006, 03:59 PM | #618 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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Current vote totals:
Dodgerchick 1 -- RealDeal (556) BrianD 1 -- Alan T (567) Greyroofoo 1 -- Blade (603) Bek 1 -- BrianD (602)
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We have always been at war with Eastasia. |
09-13-2006, 04:02 PM | #619 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
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Did Grey ever come forward and say why he tried to save bullet at the last second? I know Blade speculated, but I am not sure if that was ever confirmed.
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09-13-2006, 04:05 PM | #620 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Blade, I'm just having a hard time believing that we have been lucky enough to
1.) Kill Pilkington 2.) Identify and kill one wolf (Bulletsponge) and identify another wolf trying to protect him (Greyroofoo) I would love to be wrong on this point, because if it is true we are rapidly closing in on winning the game. But I doubt we are running that lucky. |
09-13-2006, 04:09 PM | #621 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
I never said bullet was bad...others might have made that jump, i didnt. Im discussing solely the canidacy of greyroofoo for lynch. He had made 6 posts since the start of the game, 4 of which were serious posts. For me he seems to be playing a very similar game to what he played 2 games ago when he was the head bad guy. Killing saldana only aided my opinion. Now if we knew who the dead were, good or bad or whatever, then maybe i wouldnt be on grey. But since i have no knowledge except that swaggs is the duke, i must view grey in an unbiased light based on his play this game and his play is previous games.
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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09-13-2006, 04:12 PM | #622 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Catonsville, MD
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Quote:
The obvious Lathum strategy is that he is a very good, understated veteran.
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09-13-2006, 04:15 PM | #623 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Blade, I agree we cannot assume that Grey was bad. Nor am I suggesting that you created the linkage with his vote. Back in Post #612 I cited RealDeal for making this connection.
I found myself getting excited about the two theories together, then realized that I was heading down what I considered a bad path because a wolf would not know to protect Pilkerton since he would not have his identity. |
09-13-2006, 04:17 PM | #624 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
With pilkerton not killing, you have to assume he is either dead, or got blocked by the bodyguard(or got unlucky with the 90%). Whatever you think, i feel it has no basis for how you view grey. What do you think of grey, disregarding other victims since we do not know the roles of the dead?
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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09-13-2006, 04:18 PM | #625 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Catonsville, MD
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I don't like this at all Blade, it's too metagame for my tastes.
Quote:
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09-13-2006, 04:19 PM | #626 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Anxiety, I agree with you on Lathum. I got around to alluding to this in Post #592 as well although there I talk about it in the context of Saldana/Lathum as the night kills.
By the way, why did my trust level in your eyes dip from "trusted" to "somewhat trusted" from day 2 to 3? Just curious ... |
09-13-2006, 04:20 PM | #627 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
Basically, go look at brians vote for bek...my vote is exactly the same, i just spiced it up with some previous game facts. If you have better evidence against anyone, by all means lets hear it. I have none, so i followed my gut on someone and dug up enough evidence to sway some votes. If you have something better, im all ears. So far though, ive heared a whole lot of nothing.
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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09-13-2006, 04:21 PM | #628 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Blade, this is the first game I have ever played with Grey so my impression of him right now is of a pretty quiet player. He is not giving much surface area in his posts to judge him, although I'm dying to know Bullet's role from yesterday so I can better understand his vote switch.
From reading the last game, I felt like Grey and GE held their cards pretty tightly during the day that you ended up getting lynched as the bodyguard. |
09-13-2006, 04:27 PM | #629 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
Just checked the facts, when grey was the head bad guy two games ago he averaged 2.98 posts per lynch period over the first 4 days. So far he is averaging 2 per lynch period. And of those comments, they were basically all either 1 line comments or a vote with no explanation. Its my vote, im happy with it until i see some real evidence.
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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09-13-2006, 04:44 PM | #630 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
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Quote:
But with such little information to go on at this point, what other choice do we have? I have soccer practice and while I think I will be back before the deadline, I am going to go ahead and throw a vote out just in case. VOTE Greyroofoo
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Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 |
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09-13-2006, 04:45 PM | #631 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Anxiety..i understand you dont like it...so give me something to work with. Just blasting ideas doesnt help, give me a plausible idea and lets work.
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
09-13-2006, 04:52 PM | #632 |
High School JV
Join Date: Aug 2005
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09-13-2006, 04:58 PM | #633 | |
High School JV
Join Date: Aug 2005
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Quote:
i love the math you are doing here...stats is paying off for you...i would have to agree with you on this and your other research you did earlier... Vote Greyroofoo |
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09-13-2006, 05:01 PM | #634 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Tennessee
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Without the role reveal upon death, we are forced to speculate without any real information. This is obviously difficult. I See Swaggs as the Duke and therefore my only trusted player. I see the most harmful actions against the village to be not voting. The two players who have not voted are GE and AE. I will stick with the only thing I have to go on and vote one of those.
VOTE ARDENT ENTHUSIAST I realize in our WW games there seems to be a big move towards an apologist attitude towards non-voting. That is fine if it is your belief. Personally if non-voting was rewarded with a lynch consistently, everyone would vote religiously. |
09-13-2006, 05:03 PM | #635 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
If thats your idea, why ardent(who is well documented as being in africa and having a terrible time trying to get in a vote during our time period) over GE(who got saved yesterday from a lynch at the last second)? Wondering if ardent made you more suspicious or something..
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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09-13-2006, 05:06 PM | #636 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Tennessee
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Hoops, regarding your questions about Pilkington. I tend to think that Pilkington is still in the game, just from the point of playing the odds. I would think he would act and use his kill. I would think he would have targeted Swaggs.
A secondary option would be, he assumed Swaggs was either guarded or being targeted by the wolves so he chose someone else. That person was either guarded and he was blocked or that person was Lathum and both Pilington and the wolves picked the same target, causing one kill. Third option is he held off on his kill afraid of killing a wolf. I can’t imagine why he would hold off though. |
09-13-2006, 05:09 PM | #637 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Tennessee
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Quote:
No greater level of suspicion. AE was on line and posted elsewhere (he stated that himself). I mean if you are having trouble getting in and you finally get through, then wouldn't you go vote, knowing you may not get back on? Anyway, I already layed a vote on GE for the same reason. I guess I could just keep voting him until a better reason came along, just a toss up and AE is the most recent. |
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09-13-2006, 05:17 PM | #638 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Gram, I'm still working on the assumption that Pilkington is still in the game for now, but if he skips kills two nights in a row then I think he is throwing away too much of an edge for that to make any sense - can only do it every three days and I would expect him to thin the herd as much as possible.
In terms of Swaggs, I agree that I'm surprised that he is still with us today and we have not heard about a bodyguard block. N1 - wolf attack N2 - wolf attack, Pilkington option Now maybe the wolves get clever on Night 1 and bypass Swaggs (we saw Saldana killed, so obviously they took this approach), but how long do you let the known good live? The rules don't list any options besides killing at night for the wolves - they keep their kill even if the Sympathizer is invoked, based on Path's response to my earlier question. So I have to believe that the wolves (and not Pilkington) killed last night. But again not Swaggs. The most likely reason for the bad guys let Swaggs continue to live is if they don't feel he is remotely close to applying heat on them. Only other thing I can think of is that they place a very high value on hitting the seer types compared to the known good who can't hurt them through night actions. And who may pull in the bodyguard, freeing them to target others with less risk. |
09-13-2006, 05:18 PM | #639 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Alabama
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All I can say as for why I'm playing quiet so far this game is that I have no real clue what is going on, as in the first game I played. In the warhammer game information was freely flowing especially by day 2 and it was easy to form opinions/suspicions.
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09-13-2006, 05:21 PM | #640 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
This is my opinion, by far. Swaggs is not a threat in any way. 4 roles can hurt them, hes not one of them. They are taking shots and hoping to get lucky. Knowing swaggs is good has done us a wole lot of nothing so far. Killing swaggs would have been a mistake in my mind, so i respect the wolves for making what i believe is the smart play by leaving him out there.
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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09-13-2006, 05:22 PM | #641 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Blade, if you think the wolves are making a smart decision, then does that impact your thought processes on who may be a wolf?
I'm working under the assumption that they are a committee of two players, three players max. But I'm guessing two, with the Sympathizer joining to keep their number at two if/when the first wolf dies. |
09-13-2006, 05:27 PM | #642 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
Yes and no...2 games ago they proved they could make the smart decision by killing saldana and alan nights 1/2. Those 3 wolves were bullet and 2 rookies(grey and chief). Grey went on to use his side kill on anxiety, another smart kill if you ask me. That was one of the least experienced wolf groups ive seen, and they played a great game. After that, i wouldnt put it past grey to do it again.
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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09-13-2006, 05:29 PM | #643 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Another thought on the night kills - if they target the bodyguard there is only a 25% of killing him and a 50% chance of being identified. So I'm guessing the wolves are trying hard to identify Boxer from the posts in this thread to avoid him as a night target.
Quote:
If I'm reading this correctly, the bodyguard never needs to protect himself at night (hope he has not done this so far) because the role is different here than many other games. So he can freely try to figure out the bad guys without worrying about guarding himself 1/2 the time even though the rule says he can guard himself. Thoughts? |
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09-13-2006, 05:29 PM | #644 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Alabama
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Quote:
A huge flaw in this argument is that I had nothing to do with the nightly killings. As dracula I only had 1 night kill, which I think I used on Anxiety. I also had no communication with the wolves, as evidenced by the fact that they killed me. |
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09-13-2006, 05:32 PM | #645 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
I did not notice that...bravo for catching it. You did pull the smart move on anxiety with you kill though, as he was on to you guys. This lowers my suspicion, but you have still be highly UTR this game, and your moves have piqued my interest.
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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09-13-2006, 05:32 PM | #646 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Hey guys...kind of a hectic afternoon for me...I've skimmed all the stuff, and I'm not saying its without merit (yet), but none of it sways me from my choice of Anxiety (yet). So for today...
VOTE ANXIETY |
09-13-2006, 05:34 PM | #647 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Tennessee
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Quote:
I can't imagine Pilkington holding off either. But I guess different people may see it otherwise. I can see the wolves keeping Swaggs as he no longer has a special role and they want to get other special roles. But they also risk wacking Squealer the Propagandist (their seer). The other big issue is the wolves have a 50% of being id'd if they attacked Swaggs and he was protected. They may well stay away from him and go for others as a safer option. For the wolves risking a 50% id versus a 1 in 15 or whatever chance of hitting your evil seer is likely not the route you would go as a wolf. I could see the wolves leaving Swaggs for Pilkington who only has a 90% of getting id'd on a protected hit. |
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09-13-2006, 05:35 PM | #648 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
Still catching up, but on Pilkington, it is possible that he or the revolutionaries were blocked by the bodyguard. |
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09-13-2006, 05:46 PM | #649 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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I think you guys are overlooking one huge value that I, as the only known good guy, have.
My suspects tonight are Golden Eagle, Blade, and Passacaglia. |
09-13-2006, 05:48 PM | #650 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
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Quote:
Might i ask what that is?
__________________
Underachievement The tallest blade of grass is the first to be cut by the lawnmower. Despair It's always darkest just before it goes pitch black. Demotivation Sometimes the best solution to morale problems is just to fire all of the unhappy people. http://www.despair.com/viewall.html |
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