02-19-2008, 10:46 AM | #601 |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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Pretty compelling "evidence" Lathum, but I'm sure it's so you can save your own skin.
Think about it, Lathum was against Grey's plan, was a proponent for No Lynch, and now half the people that scanned him came out as a wolf. C'mon. I'm not gonna try to defend myself, everytime I do no one listens, but vote for whomever you want, I don't care. Vote Lathum |
02-19-2008, 10:47 AM | #602 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Bethlehem, Pa
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dola, i totally agree with your analysis of her regarding the defense of the slip of the tounge
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02-19-2008, 10:48 AM | #603 |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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02-19-2008, 10:48 AM | #604 |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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(_X_)
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02-19-2008, 10:51 AM | #605 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Hometown of Canada
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I scanned clap as planned. He came up as wolf.
I don't know if we should take night 0 as hard evidence, but I did have Grey as a villager too. |
02-19-2008, 10:57 AM | #606 | ||||
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
Well considering the nature of the game those numbers probably add up. I think the thing we should be looking at are the people who scanned me despite claiming they were going with the plan. |
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02-19-2008, 10:58 AM | #607 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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my replies are in italics above, it came out jacked up
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02-19-2008, 10:58 AM | #608 |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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Alright, I submitted my PM and I'm scanning Lathum, should I survive the lynch.
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02-19-2008, 11:00 AM | #609 |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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dola,
when i come up villager, you guys know who to gun for. |
02-19-2008, 11:02 AM | #610 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
While I have no problem with you scanning me why would you submit this so early? We haven't even gotten everyone's results from last night and no one should be submitting their scans until we find out the results of the lynch. |
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02-19-2008, 11:03 AM | #611 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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02-19-2008, 11:04 AM | #612 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Hometown of Canada
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So Lathum is thinking nfg and DC are wolves right?
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02-19-2008, 11:07 AM | #613 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Regarding the 50/50 split on Lathum: Yes that's what we'd expect on the aggregate to have things be evenly split. BUT on the individual level this isn't necessarily going to be true. Figuring out who tends to be more accurate is going to be important in the late game so we know who to give weight to in listening to scans, and how much weight to give to them. Not all scans are equal. Our job needs to figure out whose scans are better than others, otherwise we're going to have to just play a traditional game of WW. And in a traditional game of WW, I like the the logic Lathum has presented today against DC. But I'm not resigned yet to that style of play. I think we can do better.
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02-19-2008, 11:07 AM | #614 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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02-19-2008, 11:09 AM | #615 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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To summarize my somewhat meandering point above:
We have two options: 1. Ignore the scan info, play a traditional game of WW based on intuition, post analysis, and voting analysis 2. Try to make sense of the scans. Find out the people who are above average in accuracy (good because we can vote with them), below average in accuracy (good because we do the opposite), and in the middle in accuracy (information we have to ignore). I'm trying to make 2 a reality, but think there is nothing wrong with playing via style 1. |
02-19-2008, 11:10 AM | #616 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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02-19-2008, 11:11 AM | #617 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Hometown of Canada
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I think we have to use the scan info more as the game progresses, as long as it's fairly obvious who an accurate scanner is.
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02-19-2008, 11:12 AM | #618 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
Obviously my opinion is going to be somewhat skewed but I think playing the first way is the smart move until we have a couple of days worth of scans to go by. |
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02-19-2008, 11:12 AM | #619 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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I think we need to play 1 untill we find more info out...
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02-19-2008, 11:19 AM | #620 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Clap and lathum: You both suggest that we start with style 1 and move into style 2. How do you propose we do this?
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02-19-2008, 11:22 AM | #621 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
Honestly. I think everyone should scan the same person they scanned tonight. as for option 1 I laid out my argument why I am suspiscous of DC, the fact I scanned her as a wolf is an added bonus. |
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02-19-2008, 11:26 AM | #622 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Hometown of Canada
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We can scan the same person as last night, I'm ok with that. But I think we have to lynch someone tonight?
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02-19-2008, 11:26 AM | #623 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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I woudl play as normal... and once we had enough scans to say with a reasonable success who was a good seer and who was a crappy seer then we can use their scans.
For example, if we can figure out who the class clown is.. then we know 100% that whatever they say is wrong... so if someone turns up as a student then they are a wolf...
__________________
Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!! |
02-19-2008, 11:32 AM | #624 | ||||||
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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OK< I pulled up some stuff from yesterday
Quote:
If I was a wolf there is no way I reveal this information this early. At the time we had no idea everyone was going to come back scanned as a villager. If I was a wolf I would be concerned someone would have had a succesful scan of me. I would have sat on my scan info to use as a possible defense until later. Quote:
As a wolf I would have jumped on the lets lynch heinze for being inactive. It's the easiest day 1 vote excuse there is. Quote:
I would never suggest no lynch as a wolf, ever. If someone else suggests it I may go along, but as a wolf I would never be the first to breach the topic. Especially since at the time it would have been easy to gt JHeinze lynched. Quote:
again, I advocate no lynch and use our info from night 1 scans. If I am a wolf I know I am gonna be scanned, why would I suggest this if that was the case. Quote:
Anyone who has played a number of games with me knows I always want a lynch. IIRC I am the first person to come out and say go ahead and scan me. Quote:
Why would I suggest anything to hurt the wolves if I was one of them? |
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02-19-2008, 11:34 AM | #625 | ||
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
Quote:
As mentioned above: Unvote Lathum |
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02-19-2008, 11:38 AM | #626 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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lets not forget the wolves can easily mess with us if we scan the same people tonight so it is far from perfect.
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02-19-2008, 11:38 AM | #627 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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I am off to school now. Be back later, hopefully everyone has checked on by then
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02-19-2008, 11:38 AM | #628 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Stuck in Yinzerville, PA
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I am thinking the same thing. Last night I threw my vote on NTN just because I thought there could be a potential wolf in a group where more than 1 scans showed up villager. nfg has been on my radar since the beginning, now DC coming to his aid really has me suspicious of her. Also add to it that why would a wolf want a No Lynch vote...why would he even suggest it? It doesn't make any sense. It's scary how after the jawing that Lathum and I went through the last game I played in, I am starting to see his ways now. Since I am torn between two...I am going with my initial gut feeling.. VOTE NFG |
02-19-2008, 11:39 AM | #629 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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I'm pickin' up what Lathum is puttin' down, moreso on voting DC than his innocence really (a lot of those statements can be used for exactly this purpose).
DC just seems to be playing very strangely. First she says wait, then she votes Lathum, then the whole "I won't defend myself and there I've submitted my PM"-thing. Just seems like she was trying to peek through the door and then nail it shut and never have to look back. Strange. I'd be leaning towards her, then "the field". I like what MikeVic is saying (his scan of GFR was correct, and now he's scanned a wolf). Something to look at for later. |
02-19-2008, 11:39 AM | #630 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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I am around today, but will not be checking in as often because our net traffic is being monitored for a few days and I don't want to risk losing access because of getting on here 15 times a day. Feel free to PM or leave questions in thread and I'll check back in a few hours.
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We have always been at war with Eastasia. Last edited by path12 : 02-19-2008 at 11:39 AM. |
02-19-2008, 11:43 AM | #631 |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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Sorry I'm late...I slept in this morning, and have training until 4:30 today, so although I'll be online, I'll be coming in and out as we get breaks/I get bored/etc...
I scanned CR last night and he came back a student. As for BK's "options" on how to play the game, I'm playing mostly as a regular game, but am definitely paying attention to the scanning patterns/results. I just think that we need more than 2 nights of scans (esp. as one of those were "involuntary" scans) before I start basing decisions more on scans than on anything else. |
02-19-2008, 11:47 AM | #632 |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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02-19-2008, 11:48 AM | #633 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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I'm here for a little bit today. Gotta work later but hopefully will still have access to the forums. My submission for a scan was Dodger Chick but I obviously don't get a scan since I didn't vote yesterday.
So who am I going to be scanning tonight according to that list again? |
02-19-2008, 11:50 AM | #634 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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I'm scanning Clap according to that list from earlier... if he was a bodyguard, why not protect yourself, especially on night 1. Ah, well.
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02-19-2008, 11:50 AM | #635 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Hometown of Canada
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My gut yesterday was nfg, but I don't remember why now. My plans right now are to lynch either nfg or DC. But that can change. Not sure who to scan either, but I'd like someone else to scan clap too. Was I the only one?
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02-19-2008, 11:50 AM | #636 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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I think we can learn a little bit from the scans we have, and we might as well parse this now, just in case everyone scans the same people again, and it gets lost in the shuffle: Neither CR nor Mr. Wednesday are the Teacher's Pet, nor are they the fool. In fact, they're more likely than any of us to have a 50% ratio, which means they're worthless as seers. I'm not going to vote for Mr. Wednesday, since he scanned me.
VOTE CHIEF RUM |
02-19-2008, 11:52 AM | #637 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
If you're interested, you're one of my nominees for the person who should suggest how we vote today. |
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02-19-2008, 11:53 AM | #638 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Damnit I meant scan!!
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02-19-2008, 12:05 PM | #639 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Hometown of Canada
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I don't know how we should scan yet. I liked Lathum's plan, but that allows wolves to mess with us too.
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02-19-2008, 12:10 PM | #640 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Pass how did you deduce that CR and Mr. W and neither teacher's pet or class clown?
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02-19-2008, 12:14 PM | #641 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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yeah im fooled on this as well
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02-19-2008, 12:15 PM | #642 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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my thought would be since they each came up with different reslts for thee same person... but since we all came up sutdent night 0 I just ingnroe it... cuz there is NO way it could have been random.
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02-19-2008, 12:20 PM | #643 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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02-19-2008, 12:22 PM | #644 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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I think all the night 0 scans were worht less. the chance that all 20 of us would come back as vilegars is like 0.0000000000003 (esitmate) so I just write off night 0. now if it happens between 1 and 2.....
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Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!! |
02-19-2008, 12:23 PM | #645 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
I'm not saying it was random, but I can't imagine that whatever game mechanic was working N0 would allow the teacher's pet to scan a wolf, yet have him come up as villager. That's insane. |
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02-19-2008, 12:24 PM | #646 |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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You're right Lathum, i don't have a vote on me, I just get really frustrated when I add something to the discussion and it's used against me. I really fuckin' hate it, especially when accusations are being made against me. I might as well keep my mouth shut and stay UTR, these people seem to make it pretty far.
I can't remember who asked, but I did say we should hold off on voting until we have more information and my vote on Lathum was instinctual as I was frustrated as shit. |
02-19-2008, 12:29 PM | #647 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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then how do you explain all 20 of us beign students? I think its just worth ignorning.....
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Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!! |
02-19-2008, 12:30 PM | #648 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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02-19-2008, 12:30 PM | #649 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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02-19-2008, 12:32 PM | #650 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
I get ya, but that's WW yo. Think of it as being permanently Mirandized but without the attorney. |
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