Werewolf 108, The Gang Wars of 1929 GAME OVER - North Siders Win - Page 13

Danny · 02-12-2010, 07:27 PM

I am defining high risk as within the two scenarios. I don't believe not voting voting is a higher risk than voting him, but it has a higher reward.

But yes, either way we still don't have a great chance of winning.

Chief Rum · 02-12-2010, 07:30 PM

Sorry, Danny, I appreciate the thought you have put into it, but I just don't like this move. Too many factors to consider, especially since you yourself are not clear. In the end, you may be right that your move is the right play, but I don't think circumstances right now are right to do this. If we had more time (way too late in the day for this and on a Friday too), if we had a really good wolf candidate, if you were clear, if we were certain Telle is actually the seer (although I don't really doubt that last), we would be in a better spot. But right now, given the way things have gone for the village, I would rather take out Poli now and roll the dice on analytical/post reading skills for Monday.

Danny · 02-12-2010, 07:30 PM

One last thing about the possibility of a fake reveal, if that were the case both Telle and Autumn would have to be wolves and since neither role has had a counter claim I think we can safely assume they are telling the truth.

Danny · 02-12-2010, 07:32 PM

I do agree that the timing is not great. I wish I had been on earlier to present this case when it would have made more of a difference. We'll just have to be perfect from here on out

.

Chief Rum · 02-12-2010, 07:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

One last thing about the possibility of a fake reveal, if that were the case both Telle and Autumn would have to be wolves and since neither role has had a counter claim I think we can safely assume they are telling the truth.

Yeah, that's the primary reason I essentially chalk that one up as good. But that was the least of my concerns of the circumstances I was pointing out.

Chief Rum · 02-12-2010, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

I do agree that the timing is not great. I wish I had been on earlier to present this case when it would have made more of a difference. We'll just have to be perfect from here on out

.

You're welcome to keep trying, or if you have to go, hope that your argument here bears fruit in your absence. Just saying, unfortunately, I can't make the switch, so it will have to be someone else. FWIW, I think Autumn's laying out of a case against PB is as good as any, and I would vote PB if I didn't vote Polu.

Autumn · 02-12-2010, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

One last thing about the possibility of a fake reveal, if that were the case both Telle and Autumn would have to be wolves and since neither role has had a counter claim I think we can safely assume they are telling the truth.

Not true, as I think the wolves were well aware who I was before she revealed. I think it remains in the realm of possibility.

Autumn · 02-12-2010, 07:57 PM

I am not likely to go along with Danny's plan. Frankly, Danny, you're not high on my trust list. And while I feel good about voting PB next, you being willing to put the vote in my hand after I put my thoughts on him out there makes me worry that I've got it wrong, and that you're a wolf engineering a way to buy yourselves time and a win.

GoldenEagle · 02-12-2010, 08:11 PM

Results may be delayed tonight. I am working on a home project that may or may not screw up my internet. I also plan on drinking a little.

PurdueBrad · 02-12-2010, 08:28 PM

I didn't kill EF, that would be a death sentence for me (which it looks like it is so well done somebody). There are three people I trust: Autumn, Telle (assuming all turns out), and KWhit for his vote on Poli (also assuming all turns out). After that, it's a complete crapshoot. I could try to turn this on Danny for his moves today or RD for being UTR but my DT push shows I don't know crap. If not knowing crap gets me lynched then so be it, it looks like it'll be a wasted day Monday. But I am telling you, you are looking in the wrong place.

EagleFan · 02-12-2010, 08:59 PM

Quiet in here...

Danny · 02-12-2010, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

I am not likely to go along with Danny's plan. Frankly, Danny, you're not high on my trust list. And while I feel good about voting PB next, you being willing to put the vote in my hand after I put my thoughts on him out there makes me worry that I've got it wrong, and that you're a wolf engineering a way to buy yourselves time and a win.

I said to put it in your hands tomorrow, not today. I have no idea who you'd plan on going after tomorrow if we decided to lynch PB today.

Autumn from your previous post it sounds like you were targeted by the wolves night 2 but were protected by Lathum. Did you get notification of this? If it is, I think PB looks even worse because he was the one who just assumed that to be the case before CR and I presented the other argument.

PurdueBrad · 02-12-2010, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Rio somehow manages to get in front the bullets aimed for the boss.

Seriously, I don't see any other way to read this line then how I initially did. Danny, I'll give you credit for this, if you're a wolf, you're not bullying me, just trying to put every single nail in my coffin. On the flip side, if you're good there are a couple of wolves having a field day. Vote me and nightfall me then I guess but I am telling you the result will not be what you want.

PurdueBrad · 02-12-2010, 09:38 PM

In fact, once Poli is dead, it'll probably be 5-2 so you can make the mistake of voting me out and still win so I guess there is no reason even being melodramatic because it doesn't cost us much anyway.

Danny · 02-12-2010, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Seriously, I don't see any other way to read this line then how I initially did. Danny, I'll give you credit for this, if you're a wolf, you're not bullying me, just trying to put every single nail in my coffin. On the flip side, if you're good there are a couple of wolves having a field day. Vote me and nightfall me then I guess but I am telling you the result will not be what you want.

Except that Cavanaugh was the shooter according to the flavor text not Willie, so it wouldnt have added up for it to be an attack on Autumn with Lathum guarding him from the text. I am not interested in a night fall or runaway vote. And actually since Poli is the brutal we will lose if we lynch you tomorrow. The three people I'll be looking at tomorrow will be you. Chief Rum and J23. Its certainly possible Kwhit or Realdeal are wolves, but I'll have to limit the focus somewhat. And then of course for others I could be in that group as well.

Autumn · 02-12-2010, 10:53 PM

Well, I can't wait any longer. bummer that we went from possibly two lynches today to heading into weekend play.

KWhit · 02-12-2010, 11:11 PM

Danny's push to get us to go elsewhere with the lynch worries me. It could be that we were at endgame if we lynched a villager and he was pushing for that to win the game for the wolves. I need to re-read some stuff tomorrow and be sure, but I don't like his theory of passing up a wolf to go after an unknown.

GoldenEagle · 02-13-2010, 01:34 AM

"Mr. Capone, Mr. Capone!!"

"What kid?" The boss was obviously not in a mood for small talk.

"There is a situation at City Hall, I think you need to get down there immediately." Capone could tell in the kid's voice that it was something urgent.

He hopped into his Cadillac but arrived too late. He stopped a nearby officer and asked him what the situation was.

"Bugs Moran snuck into the Mayor's Office and shot him. Fortunately, security managed to kill Bugs, but the Mayor did not survive."
The lump in Capone's throat grew. He no longer was connected with the most powerful position in the city.

Poli was Bugs Moran and Telle was Williams "Big Bill" Hale Thompson.

Danny · 02-13-2010, 04:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Danny's push to get us to go elsewhere with the lynch worries me. It could be that we were at endgame if we lynched a villager and he was pushing for that to win the game for the wolves. I need to re-read some stuff tomorrow and be sure, but I don't like his theory of passing up a wolf to go after an unknown.

Impossible, to be at end game it would have to be 5-4 and if that was the case a wolf would simply go along with the plan and we would lose as soon as a night kill is made.

And pushing for different logic when a vote is 9-0 is a nice way to call attention to yourself with very little chance of making a difference. I absolutely would not have done that as a wolf. I believed not voting Poli was the right move and still do.

Autumn · 02-13-2010, 09:17 AM

I expect I'll be dead momentarily. Good luck village. My best lead is what I wrote about PB before. The wolves targeted me on night two, and presumably figured out that I was Capone. If they went elsewhere night three after the BG was dead, they presumably were going seer hunting. Look back at EF's posts and see what would make them think that.

Might be a ruse, but it's all I've got.

KWhit · 02-13-2010, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

I expect I'll be dead momentarily. Good luck village. My best lead is what I wrote about PB before. The wolves targeted me on night two, and presumably figured out that I was Capone. If they went elsewhere night three after the BG was dead, they presumably were going seer hunting. Look back at EF's posts and see what would make them think that.

Might be a ruse, but it's all I've got.

But why come out as Capone when you did? You implied yesterday that you knew something or had a reason to do so. If you can tell us before you're killed that would be nice.

Autumn · 02-13-2010, 10:44 AM

Oh wow, didn't realize, night deadline Monday night. Guess I get to linger for a while.

I came out particularly because I was afraid PB is a wolf. If so, he could pull off a pretty convincing fake Capone reveal. The fact that PB was saved, and DT was killed, would make it pretty easy for him to make a case for it. If Telle was already dead and couldn't confirm that I was Capone we could be stuck in an impasse, near endgame, with you guys having to vote one of us (most likely me) out before realizing what happened.

I had previously been keeping mum because I didn't know if the wolves were 100% certain that I was Capone. I was informed that they had targeted me night 2, but presumably because they and Lathum believed I was the seer. If I could keep them wondering about that I figured we might keep the seer alive a bit longer. Once Telle came out I continued keeping mum just in case Telle was fake revealing. When I started worrying about a fake Capone reveal later, I decided to come out.

KWhit · 02-13-2010, 11:01 AM

Okay. I see your point. I still think it would have been better to wait, but at least now I see why you did it (should have seen it immediately, I guess, but I didn't).

Thanks.

Autumn · 02-13-2010, 12:13 PM

It was only holding information from the villagers, basically, as I was 95% certain the wolves knew I was Capone. It was worth the 5% chance of making them wonder about the seer, but then with Telle revealing it was only whatever % chance that it was a fake reveal, plus that 5%. Not really worth it.

EagleFan · 02-13-2010, 03:33 PM

Poli · 02-13-2010, 03:35 PM

Danny · 02-13-2010, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

I was informed that they had targeted me night 2, but presumably because they and Lathum believed I was the seer.

This is important information as the only two people who 100% assumed this was the case after the write up from that night were you and PB. In fact PB posted that Willie did the killing even though the writeup said Cavanaugh. You had inside info obviously and I'm thinking PB did as well.

Danny · 02-13-2010, 04:55 PM

Day 1 - CrimsonFox - Danny (77)
5 - Passacaglia - PurdueBrad (43), Telle (78), DaddyTorgo (86), EagleFan (115), Lathum (117)
1 - Telle - Poli (51)
4 - Lathum - CrimsonFox (81), Chief Rum (87), RealDeal (93), KWhit (113)
1 - Chief Rum - Darth Vilus (62)

Did not vote: J23, Passacaglia, Autumn (unvoted to avoid tie)

Day 2

6 - CrimsonFox - KWhit (201), Telle (224), Lathum (227), Poli (229), Danny (273) DT (313)
3- Lathum - Chief Rum (185), EagleFan (192), RealDeal (244)
3 - DaddyTorgo - Autumn (195), J23 (232), PurdeBrad (256)

Danny · 02-13-2010, 04:55 PM

Forgot Poli in red, but thats the run down from days 1 and 2. Although it didn't work last game, interesting to note that all other players from day 1 who votes for Pass are confirmed villagers except for PB.

Danny · 02-13-2010, 04:57 PM

Day 3

PurdueBrad 5 - Danny (372), Poli (416), EagleFan (451), Daddy Torgo (468), J23 (486)
Poli 1 - KWhit (381)
Chief Rum 3 - Autumn (419), Telle (431), PurdueBrad (455)
Autumn 1 - Chief Rum (437)

Danny · 02-13-2010, 04:59 PM

Slight alterations after re-reading, but Autumn was the one who suggested Willie did the killing initially, PB just agreed.

PurdueBrad · 02-13-2010, 06:36 PM

I was wrong about something else. Assuming there are 2 wolves left (if there are three we're screwed anyway), it'll be 4-2 after a nightkill so lynching me is not the best idea because there is no margin of error.

J23 · 02-13-2010, 07:16 PM

I see what Danny was trying to do, and I honestly agree with the reasoning. I tried to make a similar point a few games back and took a good bit of heat for advocating that we leave a wolf alive while we looked for another.

hoopsguy · 02-15-2010, 10:50 AM

Bump?

Autumn · 02-15-2010, 11:34 AM

I've posted most of my thoughts. We're in a tight spot. Everyone left could very well be a wolf. If RealDeal's one he's going to keep quiet as a mouse and squeak out of this thing alive most likely. Danny has latched on fairly well to my suggestion of PB, so I would guess that not both of them are wolves, but it could go either way with them. I'm not particularly skilled at sniffing out wolves so I could be wrong on PB.

J23, Kwhit and Chief Rum. Chief had my vote earlier in the game for gut reasons. If I lived long enough I'd probably vote him after PB. But I don't have anything solid on any of these guys.

GoldenEagle · 02-15-2010, 12:26 PM

Sorry for the delay. I overslept and had to hustle to get to work.

Chicago is in a state of panic. Not only has the mayor recently been assassinated for his corrupt ways, but the city’s top gangster was found dead today. Al Capone was found dead this morning. Details of his death have not been disclosed. The Chicago Outfit has promised revenge.

Al Capone was Autumn.

Deadline is 9PM EST.

J23 · 02-15-2010, 12:41 PM

So much for thinking the wolves might have forgotten to send in their kill order.

Autumn · 02-15-2010, 12:45 PM

*gurgle*

PurdueBrad · 02-15-2010, 02:34 PM

I honestly don't have an argument to put onto someone else and me spinning one would *likely* hurt us since I only have a 40% chance of being right any way. Before we get into math, there are 2 of the 5 of you that are wolves, meaning I have a 40% chance.

Actually, the one decent argument of anything is IF you are a villager and can trust or at least think that I'm a villager, then you have a 2 in 4 chance of hitting a wolf, or 50/50, which at this point is better than nothing or my 40%. I've made several end games lately, I hate losing, and don't plan on losing here so before you start a mad rush to lynch me, look at other options you've considered, honestly.

Chief Rum · 02-15-2010, 05:40 PM

I understand it's a holiday, but where is everyone? Sheesh...

Okay, I have to decide on a vote because I am leaving shortly until well after deadline.

The obvious candidate is PB, as he was fingered by Autumn, known to be good, and Autumn's argument was not without its case (although I would say it was also far from foolproof).

My other candidate is Danny, but I'll admit that's a personal gut thing. JUst reading his wolfs, I get a bit of a wolf vibe. He's not as gungho in this game as I have seen him in the past. And I felt this before he came with that odd plan on Friday, which I still consider to have been way too risky on an innocent level, and at worst an attempt to prolong the lynching of a known wolf.

I am going to take care of another errand online right now, and then I'll come back and put in a vote.

PurdueBrad · 02-15-2010, 05:47 PM

CR, I'm actually afraid there is a lot of holding back of votes to see who the wolves can lynch. I will admit upfront to holding mine back for self-defense but yeah, I keep checking in for any kind of discussion and there is none.

I honestly can't tell you to vote Danny, he hasn't bullied me the way a wolf might but he has done a good job of putting a case together. So I'm uncertain, uncertain enough that I can't endorse a push against him if it saves me but not the game overall. Yeah, I'm being a pansy here and don't want to lead (another, see the whole DT thing) bad lynch because this is end game time.

PurdueBrad · 02-15-2010, 05:48 PM

Yay, somebody is here! Hi Danny!

Danny · 02-15-2010, 05:54 PM

Hey PB, I'm torn with this vote a bit.

Danny · 02-15-2010, 05:56 PM

I will not be voting Kwhit because out of all of us I feel has the best case for a villager. I will not be voting RealDeal even though he could very well be a wolf.

My choices are PB, J23 and Chief Rum.

Danny · 02-15-2010, 05:58 PM

I find the lack of voting very interesting and I am sure the two wolves are holding back hoping a villager sets a villager candidate and can hop on. I think the best case can be made against PB, but my gut is saying to vote for Chief Rum.

Danny · 02-15-2010, 06:00 PM

Vote Chief Rum

Danny · 02-15-2010, 06:01 PM

We have a low chance of winning here, so I am going by gut, but I have read something from him over the last couple days almost identical to several games back when he was a wolf.

PurdueBrad · 02-15-2010, 06:01 PM

Danny, you've done a nice job laying out a case for me so I understand not swaying your vote and I purposely haven't tried to. Same token, I have a minor wolf vibe from you(mainly from your case probably, but the lack of you really pushing has me completely willing to give you the benefit of the doubt here) but not nearly enough to vote for you. Mainly because I think you're too helpful a villager in this case to be bad. So you and KWhit are the only two people I won't vote. I'm still impressed by KWhit's Poli vote the day before we lynched Poli.

Danny · 02-15-2010, 06:03 PM

I agree about Kwhit completely. He may be a wolf, but his case to be a villager is stronger than any of us and if he is a wolf then I'll say good job.

PurdueBrad · 02-15-2010, 06:04 PM

I'm strongly torn between Real Deal (but is it a vote for not being around or an UTR wolf?), J23 (his last vote on me prior to Autumn's duke sits horribly with me because he buried me as a villager), and Chief Rum (the path we went down a couple days ago but I don't see much else there).

As I said earlier, I'm surprised there are no votes out yet (except Danny's) so I'm holding out some hope but also think there are two people out there waiting to bury one of us.

02-12-2010, 07:30 PM	#602
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Sorry, Danny, I appreciate the thought you have put into it, but I just don't like this move. Too many factors to consider, especially since you yourself are not clear. In the end, you may be right that your move is the right play, but I don't think circumstances right now are right to do this. If we had more time (way too late in the day for this and on a Friday too), if we had a really good wolf candidate, if you were clear, if we were certain Telle is actually the seer (although I don't really doubt that last), we would be in a better spot. But right now, given the way things have gone for the village, I would rather take out Poli now and roll the dice on analytical/post reading skills for Monday. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

02-12-2010, 08:11 PM	#609
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	Results may be delayed tonight. I am working on a home project that may or may not screw up my internet. I also plan on drinking a little. __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

02-13-2010, 01:34 AM	#618
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	"Mr. Capone, Mr. Capone!!" "What kid?" The boss was obviously not in a mood for small talk. "There is a situation at City Hall, I think you need to get down there immediately." Capone could tell in the kid's voice that it was something urgent. He hopped into his Cadillac but arrived too late. He stopped a nearby officer and asked him what the situation was. "Bugs Moran snuck into the Mayor's Office and shot him. Fortunately, security managed to kill Bugs, but the Mayor did not survive." The lump in Capone's throat grew. He no longer was connected with the most powerful position in the city. Poli was Bugs Moran and Telle was Williams "Big Bill" Hale Thompson. __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

02-13-2010, 03:35 PM	#626
Poli FOFC Survivor Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Wentzville, MO	__________________ Cheer for a walk on quarterback! Ardent leads the Vols in the dynasty forum.

02-15-2010, 12:26 PM	#636
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	Sorry for the delay. I overslept and had to hustle to get to work. Chicago is in a state of panic. Not only has the mayor recently been assassinated for his corrupt ways, but the city’s top gangster was found dead today. Al Capone was found dead this morning. Details of his death have not been disclosed. The Chicago Outfit has promised revenge. Al Capone was Autumn. Deadline is 9PM EST. __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

02-12-2010, 07:27 PM	#601
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I am defining high risk as within the two scenarios. I don't believe not voting voting is a higher risk than voting him, but it has a higher reward. But yes, either way we still don't have a great chance of winning.

02-12-2010, 07:30 PM	#603
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	One last thing about the possibility of a fake reveal, if that were the case both Telle and Autumn would have to be wolves and since neither role has had a counter claim I think we can safely assume they are telling the truth.

02-12-2010, 07:32 PM	#604
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I do agree that the timing is not great. I wish I had been on earlier to present this case when it would have made more of a difference. We'll just have to be perfect from here on out .

02-12-2010, 07:57 PM	#608
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I am not likely to go along with Danny's plan. Frankly, Danny, you're not high on my trust list. And while I feel good about voting PB next, you being willing to put the vote in my hand after I put my thoughts on him out there makes me worry that I've got it wrong, and that you're a wolf engineering a way to buy yourselves time and a win.

02-12-2010, 08:28 PM	#610
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	I didn't kill EF, that would be a death sentence for me (which it looks like it is so well done somebody). There are three people I trust: Autumn, Telle (assuming all turns out), and KWhit for his vote on Poli (also assuming all turns out). After that, it's a complete crapshoot. I could try to turn this on Danny for his moves today or RD for being UTR but my DT push shows I don't know crap. If not knowing crap gets me lynched then so be it, it looks like it'll be a wasted day Monday. But I am telling you, you are looking in the wrong place.

02-12-2010, 08:59 PM	#611
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Quiet in here...

02-12-2010, 09:38 PM	#614
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	In fact, once Poli is dead, it'll probably be 5-2 so you can make the mistake of voting me out and still win so I guess there is no reason even being melodramatic because it doesn't cost us much anyway.

02-12-2010, 10:53 PM	#616
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Well, I can't wait any longer. bummer that we went from possibly two lynches today to heading into weekend play.

02-12-2010, 11:11 PM	#617
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	Danny's push to get us to go elsewhere with the lynch worries me. It could be that we were at endgame if we lynched a villager and he was pushing for that to win the game for the wolves. I need to re-read some stuff tomorrow and be sure, but I don't like his theory of passing up a wolf to go after an unknown.

02-13-2010, 09:17 AM	#620
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I expect I'll be dead momentarily. Good luck village. My best lead is what I wrote about PB before. The wolves targeted me on night two, and presumably figured out that I was Capone. If they went elsewhere night three after the BG was dead, they presumably were going seer hunting. Look back at EF's posts and see what would make them think that. Might be a ruse, but it's all I've got.

02-13-2010, 10:44 AM	#622
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Oh wow, didn't realize, night deadline Monday night. Guess I get to linger for a while. I came out particularly because I was afraid PB is a wolf. If so, he could pull off a pretty convincing fake Capone reveal. The fact that PB was saved, and DT was killed, would make it pretty easy for him to make a case for it. If Telle was already dead and couldn't confirm that I was Capone we could be stuck in an impasse, near endgame, with you guys having to vote one of us (most likely me) out before realizing what happened. I had previously been keeping mum because I didn't know if the wolves were 100% certain that I was Capone. I was informed that they had targeted me night 2, but presumably because they and Lathum believed I was the seer. If I could keep them wondering about that I figured we might keep the seer alive a bit longer. Once Telle came out I continued keeping mum just in case Telle was fake revealing. When I started worrying about a fake Capone reveal later, I decided to come out.

02-13-2010, 11:01 AM	#623
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	Okay. I see your point. I still think it would have been better to wait, but at least now I see why you did it (should have seen it immediately, I guess, but I didn't). Thanks.

02-13-2010, 12:13 PM	#624
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	It was only holding information from the villagers, basically, as I was 95% certain the wolves knew I was Capone. It was worth the 5% chance of making them wonder about the seer, but then with Telle revealing it was only whatever % chance that it was a fake reveal, plus that 5%. Not really worth it.

02-13-2010, 03:33 PM	#625
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA

02-13-2010, 04:55 PM	#628
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Day 1 - CrimsonFox - Danny (77) 5 - Passacaglia - PurdueBrad (43), Telle (78), DaddyTorgo (86), EagleFan (115), Lathum (117) 1 - Telle - Poli (51) 4 - Lathum - CrimsonFox (81), Chief Rum (87), RealDeal (93), KWhit (113) 1 - Chief Rum - Darth Vilus (62) Did not vote: J23, Passacaglia, Autumn (unvoted to avoid tie) Day 2 6 - CrimsonFox - KWhit (201), Telle (224), Lathum (227), Poli (229), Danny (273) DT (313) 3- Lathum - Chief Rum (185), EagleFan (192), RealDeal (244) 3 - DaddyTorgo - Autumn (195), J23 (232), PurdeBrad (256)

02-13-2010, 04:55 PM	#629
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Forgot Poli in red, but thats the run down from days 1 and 2. Although it didn't work last game, interesting to note that all other players from day 1 who votes for Pass are confirmed villagers except for PB.

02-13-2010, 04:57 PM	#630
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Day 3 PurdueBrad 5 - Danny (372), Poli (416), EagleFan (451), Daddy Torgo (468), J23 (486) Poli 1 - KWhit (381) Chief Rum 3 - Autumn (419), Telle (431), PurdueBrad (455) Autumn 1 - Chief Rum (437)

02-13-2010, 04:59 PM	#631
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Slight alterations after re-reading, but Autumn was the one who suggested Willie did the killing initially, PB just agreed.

02-13-2010, 06:36 PM	#632
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	I was wrong about something else. Assuming there are 2 wolves left (if there are three we're screwed anyway), it'll be 4-2 after a nightkill so lynching me is not the best idea because there is no margin of error.

02-13-2010, 07:16 PM	#633
J23 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jul 2009	I see what Danny was trying to do, and I honestly agree with the reasoning. I tried to make a similar point a few games back and took a good bit of heat for advocating that we leave a wolf alive while we looked for another.

02-15-2010, 10:50 AM	#634
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Bump?

02-15-2010, 11:34 AM	#635
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I've posted most of my thoughts. We're in a tight spot. Everyone left could very well be a wolf. If RealDeal's one he's going to keep quiet as a mouse and squeak out of this thing alive most likely. Danny has latched on fairly well to my suggestion of PB, so I would guess that not both of them are wolves, but it could go either way with them. I'm not particularly skilled at sniffing out wolves so I could be wrong on PB. J23, Kwhit and Chief Rum. Chief had my vote earlier in the game for gut reasons. If I lived long enough I'd probably vote him after PB. But I don't have anything solid on any of these guys.

02-15-2010, 12:41 PM	#637
J23 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jul 2009	So much for thinking the wolves might have forgotten to send in their kill order.

02-15-2010, 12:45 PM	#638
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	gurgle

02-15-2010, 02:34 PM	#639
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	I honestly don't have an argument to put onto someone else and me spinning one would likely hurt us since I only have a 40% chance of being right any way. Before we get into math, there are 2 of the 5 of you that are wolves, meaning I have a 40% chance. Actually, the one decent argument of anything is IF you are a villager and can trust or at least think that I'm a villager, then you have a 2 in 4 chance of hitting a wolf, or 50/50, which at this point is better than nothing or my 40%. I've made several end games lately, I hate losing, and don't plan on losing here so before you start a mad rush to lynch me, look at other options you've considered, honestly.

02-15-2010, 05:40 PM	#640
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	I understand it's a holiday, but where is everyone? Sheesh... Okay, I have to decide on a vote because I am leaving shortly until well after deadline. The obvious candidate is PB, as he was fingered by Autumn, known to be good, and Autumn's argument was not without its case (although I would say it was also far from foolproof). My other candidate is Danny, but I'll admit that's a personal gut thing. JUst reading his wolfs, I get a bit of a wolf vibe. He's not as gungho in this game as I have seen him in the past. And I felt this before he came with that odd plan on Friday, which I still consider to have been way too risky on an innocent level, and at worst an attempt to prolong the lynching of a known wolf. I am going to take care of another errand online right now, and then I'll come back and put in a vote. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

02-15-2010, 05:47 PM	#641
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	CR, I'm actually afraid there is a lot of holding back of votes to see who the wolves can lynch. I will admit upfront to holding mine back for self-defense but yeah, I keep checking in for any kind of discussion and there is none. I honestly can't tell you to vote Danny, he hasn't bullied me the way a wolf might but he has done a good job of putting a case together. So I'm uncertain, uncertain enough that I can't endorse a push against him if it saves me but not the game overall. Yeah, I'm being a pansy here and don't want to lead (another, see the whole DT thing) bad lynch because this is end game time.

02-15-2010, 05:48 PM	#642
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Yay, somebody is here! Hi Danny!

02-15-2010, 05:54 PM	#643
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Hey PB, I'm torn with this vote a bit.

02-15-2010, 05:56 PM	#644
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I will not be voting Kwhit because out of all of us I feel has the best case for a villager. I will not be voting RealDeal even though he could very well be a wolf. My choices are PB, J23 and Chief Rum.