WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

Saldana as a target, especially after knowing he's down money-wise after spending the extra cash on a vote makes little sense on the face of it. I certainly see the logic against hoops in his suggestions that sal be scanned -- however, those suggestions were made in thread, so obviously the cutthroats saw them also and might have seen an opportunity to frame.

It's crucial for the cutthroats not to be caught. If any of them are and are bankrupted, then we've got to have a money edge for day 4. So maybe either buying the scans or directing them to targets is a prime goal of theirs.

I guess what I'm saying is that I could go either way on hoops right now, but he's definitely on the short list for a vote today.

And crap, I need to name a new beneficiary now.

So I assume Schmidty is on your shortlist, then? I don't think I've ever been in a game where he's a wolf, but it is an interesting ploy -- he buys the seer, kills sal, then pushes the blame to hoops for it.

[hoopsguy]

I'm around and happy to answer questions.

Telecomm bid - I had a fair amount of money tied up in CDs, so I didn't have unlimited cash. 20K wasn't the total amount I had to work with, but it was close in terms of capital I had for yesterday.

Here is how the money worked, with some info withheld. I'll add the additional info if people think it makes sense.
1.) Lathum and I both started with 30K (=60K)
2.) We both cast a Day 1 vote, total 30K (=90K)
3.) I spent 10K to name a new beneficiary after Swaggs was lynched (back to 80K)
4.) I "gifted" 6K yesterday to Arles and DaddyTorgo (=74K)
5.) Lathum didn't have 7.5K, which could have been either spent on the seer (I think) or money he had on hand that was claimed by the Cutthroats on killing him (=66.5K)
6.) Both Lathum and I had invested money in CDs that were not available yesterday (=good portion of remaining 66.5K). That money may or may not be available today. I think it is bad for our team for me to reveal this with 100% certainty if I can't give away CDs before being lynched
7.) I got another 6.5K from Mauboy at the deadline yesterday, did not factor into my bid decision

So the 20K bid represented most of my available money. I figured if they were going to go above 30K that I wasn't going to be able to stop them, but I did want to make sure they were going to put out a legitimate bid to win the service.

[Passacaglia]

5.) Lathum didn't have 7.5K, which could have been either spent on the seer (I think) or money he had on hand that was claimed by the Cutthroats on killing him (=66.5K)

hoops, when you say that he "didn't have" 7.5K, do you mean that he had exactly 37.5K?

[hoopsguy]

Yes, Lathum had 37.5K between assets in the bank and CDs. That value is based upon the value of the money deposited, not upon the money to be realized upon maturity.

[Tyrith]

Hey, a lurker :P

[Alan T]

Hoops.. here is my problem with your action. I am hoping you can help clear it up for me. The main reason I bid on the service was that it seemed pretty obvious in the thread yesterday that you were going to be the village's bidder for the service. So your choices are then to either bluff and go elsewhere or go big (which 20k is not big) to make sure the wolves didn't get it.

Since I wasn't sure I could trust you, I figured I would back that up just in case. So since the bids were revealed I have been trying to put myself in your shoes and figure out what your direction was.. To me yesterday it felt like you were one of the possible wolf targets as we all knew that you had received Lathum's inheritance. So if you wern't going to bid on the Telecommunications, and you are a good guy, why didn't you bid on the bodyguard service to make sure you and the money you gained stayed on the good side? The bodyguard service is much cheaper it appears and very doable for you.

The way you revealed that you did not get the service, and instantly throwing out the idea that the wolves did seemed a little "forced" as well. Part of me feels that you are a wolf who was making people think you would protect the bid, thus having it available for a lower price which you tried to get it for.. I just am having a hard time finding how you bid only 20k for that as a good guy.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Yes, Lathum had 37.5K between assets in the bank and CDs. That value is based upon the value of the money deposited, not upon the money to be realized upon maturity.

Right, the money deposited is what I meant. Was there something that didn't want you to say it like that in the first place? I figured that's what caused you to think Lathum bid on the seer, but you never know..

[hoopsguy]

The bodyguard service does not prevent a bribe, per Barkeep's answer yesterday. I would be much more interested in that service otherwise.

In terms of keeping money from them, I have minimized my on-hand cash in the event that they night kill me. I hope that the person I've selected as my beneficiary is on the right side.

That is what I thought I could do to keep the Cutthroats from claiming my money yesterday.

As far as assuming that the wolves got the service, I did not see an announcement on PM rights. I posed the question to BK, but had to get going to work before getting an answer. I made an assumption that looks to have been incorrect if you obtained the service as a member of the Rich and are telling the truth about using it to prevent their communications.

On the 20K, if you work backwards on the numbers you can more or less figure out what I had for my assets yesterday. I thought it was going to take a number above 30K, which I didn't have. So I tried to bluff at it in the thread, with the idea of driving the price tag up higher for the wolves if they wanted to chase this service.

[Tyrith]

Sigh, and I hadn't even thought about the telecomm service issue. And it strikes me as altogther too possible that if hoops is bad the wolves set up a fairly detailed scheme for today and that he never had any intention of winning the service, and just let us throw money down a hole.

There are just too many things adding up right now in my mind, and it doesn't seem like we're going to get other evidence today. Feel free to try to talk me down off the ledge.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Right, the money deposited is what I meant. Was there something that didn't want you to say it like that in the first place? I figured that's what caused you to think Lathum bid on the seer, but you never know..

I did say it, but in a more roundabout manner.
Starting money + vote money - 7.5K

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

So I assume Schmidty is on your shortlist, then? I don't think I've ever been in a game where he's a wolf, but it is an interesting ploy -- he buys the seer, kills sal, then pushes the blame to hoops for it.

You're mental if you can't find a better candidate than me. No offense.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

You're mental if you can't find a better candidate than me. No offense.

Your vote this morning was far too schmidty to be used for or against you

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Sigh, and I hadn't even thought about the telecomm service issue. And it strikes me as altogther too possible that if hoops is bad the wolves set up a fairly detailed scheme for today and that he never had any intention of winning the service, and just let us throw money down a hole.

There are just too many things adding up right now in my mind, and it doesn't seem like we're going to get other evidence today. Feel free to try to talk me down off the ledge.

Tyrith, I've already got one vote on me and have had Chief voting on me for two days now. Everyone else in the thread is questioning me. Do what you feel you have to do.

I don't have any value other than my money, which is right now 100% on the side of the Rich. I'll move the money before I die, with the hope that I'm keeping as much of it as possible in the hands of the Rich.

You guys are going down the wrong path, and it isn't going to get a Cutthroat today. I'll answer every question you guys have, and if you don't believe me then I'm clearly not doing a very good job this game and not adding value in terms of winning. I can accept that, and I'll try to figure out what to do differently for next game.

At some point today, however, I'm going to have to figure out what is a better direction with the vote. Because if I am lynched, and it is revealed that I am "Rich" and not "Cutthroat", then I would like for there to be some avenue to pursue for future days.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

The bodyguard service does not prevent a bribe, per Barkeep's answer yesterday. I would be much more interested in that service otherwise.

In terms of keeping money from them, I have minimized my on-hand cash in the event that they night kill me. I hope that the person I've selected as my beneficiary is on the right side.

That is what I thought I could do to keep the Cutthroats from claiming my money yesterday.

As far as assuming that the wolves got the service, I did not see an announcement on PM rights. I posed the question to BK, but had to get going to work before getting an answer. I made an assumption that looks to have been incorrect if you obtained the service as a member of the Rich and are telling the truth about using it to prevent their communications.

On the 20K, if you work backwards on the numbers you can more or less figure out what I had for my assets yesterday. I thought it was going to take a number above 30K, which I didn't have. So I tried to bluff at it in the thread, with the idea of driving the price tag up higher for the wolves if they wanted to chase this service.

It is kind of hard for me to go backwards to see what you had for assets since we don't know how much you have tied up in CDs (if anything). The way you came out supposedly bidding just below what I did made that (and still makes it) feel like a made up amount.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I know that I would be a heck of a lot happier if I had bid every cent I had on the service right now because I would have won the service. That doesn't change the fact that my bid is exactly as I indicated it was.

What would be my incentive to make up a number, rather than to suggest that I didn't bid on it at all?

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Your vote this morning was far too schmidty to be used for or against you

I'm just bad, and I'm the only one who can say that, so when I obviously get screwed out in public, I get mad. I have low self-esteem in WW.

Love me.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

You're mental if you can't find a better candidate than me. No offense.

None taken, since I didn't say I can't find a better candidate than you. Anyway, can you find a better candidate than you? I just blew my mind!

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

None taken, since I didn't say I can't find a better candidate than you. Anyway, can you find a better candidate than you? I just blew my mind!

I already did find a better candidate!!!! Hoops!!!!!!

He's as bad as an apple with clymidia.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I did say it, but in a more roundabout manner.
Starting money + vote money - 7.5K

Right. It's just that the roundabout matter led me not to be sure if you were doing it right. Remember, we had people thinking that the most you could put in a CD was 10K!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I already did find a better candidate!!!! Hoops!!!!!!

He's as bad as an apple with clymidia.

Good point. Consider my mind unblown.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

What would be my incentive to make up a number, rather than to suggest that I didn't bid on it at all?

We would be even more on your case if you hadn't bid at all. Pretty much the only lie we would have bought would be that you bid 20k on the seer and lost, but that would have also brought heat from us about the fact that we considered, by consensus, that the telecomm was more important.

[hoopsguy]

Schmidty, your vote is cast and I understand that. But as you have stepped away from the decision do you really think that I was trying to influence the seer only to kill the person that night?

The fact that Saldana isn't here already demonstrates that yesterday's vote was pretty worthless. That was my major hope with the scan, to either catch a wolf or tell us that we were off-track yesterday. The wolves, in killing Saldana, provided that information for us.

Sure, there is frustration in "wasting" a scan, but at least I personally feel like I got the information that I was looking for and won't bother wasting much time today dredging through votes yesterday as definitive proof of guilt/innocence.

[Tyrith]

Oh Schmidty, what would we do without you.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Schmidty, your vote is cast and I understand that. But as you have stepped away from the decision do you really think that I was trying to influence the seer only to kill the person that night?

The fact that Saldana isn't here already demonstrates that yesterday's vote was pretty worthless. That was my major hope with the scan, to either catch a wolf or tell us that we were off-track yesterday. The wolves, in killing Saldana, provided that information for us.

Sure, there is frustration in "wasting" a scan, but at least I personally feel like I got the information that I was looking for and won't bother wasting much time today dredging through votes yesterday as definitive proof of guilt/innocence.

Yeah, but we need people we can trust, or at least whose allegiance we know _alive_ so we can trust them with money and/or use their statements as a source of information. A body can tell some tales, but it doesn't tell any new tales, and the old tales really weren't that interesting.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Oh Schmidty, what would we do without you.

Have a more productive WW player?

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Have a more productive WW player?

Hey now, a warm body is better than nobody. And you're useful for stirring up the hornet's nest.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

We would be even more on your case if you hadn't bid at all. Pretty much the only lie we would have bought would be that you bid 20k on the seer and lost, but that would have also brought heat from us about the fact that we considered, by consensus, that the telecomm was more important.

For what little it is worth, I didn't think there was any way the inflation on the seer would be that great. I had thought about putting an offer of 10-15K out on the seer, thinking that would get the job done.

I don't see where there is a problem with stockpiling money as a strategy rather than bidding on services. The uncomfortable part about it for me, up to this point, is that everyone knew that I inherited money so I had more of it than others. I certainly started the game with the notion of stockpiling money, while letting others bid for services. But once the inheritance was announced I was concerned about being a bribe target because it would be a sound economic play for them. So I positioned that I would have less money, making a bribe a bad financial play. Note that I didn't comment on services last night, but waited until this morning to do so.

So where does that leave me today? Well, more or less waiting to see how votes shake out. If people are determined to vote me out then I won't be bidding on services - I'll focus on giving money away and trying to manage risk as best I can. If it looks like I'm going to live to see the night cycle, then I'll probably take a hard look at services. I've got enough free money today to make a substantially larger bid than yesterday, if I believe there is value in doing so.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think Saldana is Lathum's ex-girlfriend or something like that.

dick

[SnDvls]

Way off topic, but

ok I have a problem with Arles still being in this game.
He was on here viewing just after lynch and nothing was said.
Yes he's probally a villager, but a worthless one at that right now to us as a village.

Barkeep is this being addressed or will it be today to have a replacement named well before deadline?


sorry had to get that off my chest.

[Alan T]

Hoops.. how did you come down to the conclusion that yesterday was Mau vs Saldana vs Tyrith, and Mauboy being good leads to needing information about Saldana and Tyrith? Since you seemed to give the impression that Saldana being good means we don't need to look at yesterday's vote at all, I decided maybe I should dig in a bit.

Here is the vote map from yesterday:

Hoops 1 (276)
Hoops 1 Chief 1 (374)
Hoops 1 Chief 1 Mauboy 1 (388)
Hoops 1 Chief 1 Mauboy 1 Sndvls 1 (394)
Hoops 1 Chief 1 Mauboy 1 Sndvls 2 (396)
Hoops 1 Chief 1 Mauboy 2 Sndvls 2 (401)
Hoops 1 Chief 1 Mauboy 2 Sndvls 2 Claphasma 1 (406)
Hoops 1 Chief 1 Mauboy 3 Sndvls 2 Claphasma 1 (411)
Hoops 1 Chief 1 Mauboy 3 Sndvls 2 Claphasma 1 Saldana 1 (414)
Hoops 1 Chief 1 Mauboy 3 Sndvls 2 Claphasma 2 Saldana 1 (417)
Hoops 1 Chief 1 Mauboy 4 Sndvls 2 Claphasma 2 Saldana 1 (419)
Hoops 1 Chief 1 Mauboy 4 Sndvls 2 Claphasma 2 Saldana 2 (428)
Hoops 1 Chief 1 Mauboy 5 Sndvls 2 Claphasma 2 Saldana 2 (473)



Tyrith's vote (411) was indeed the winner as it was the third vote on Mauboy, but at the time it was 3-2 between Mauboy and Sndvls with several people having 1 vote. Saldana's vote (401) was the 2nd on Mauboy which tied him with Sndvls whom had been leading the vote.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Yeah, but we need people we can trust, or at least whose allegiance we know _alive_ so we can trust them with money and/or use their statements as a source of information. A body can tell some tales, but it doesn't tell any new tales, and the old tales really weren't that interesting.

Alive means that you trust them for that day, based on this format. You can trust every statement Saldana has made over the first two days of the game.

Trust with money - I don't think that is a great idea in terms of moving money to them, naming them as beneficiaries with the bribe option in the game.

I would rather have Saldana alive than dead for a couple of reasons. One, I like playing WW with him and respect his thought process. Two, it would give us slightly better odds with our selection today. But I don't really buy off on the ideas you are listing as the biggest reasons to want the seer scan instead of the corpse. Someone had to die last night, barring a bodyguard block. We got more information from Saldana dying (without the context of him being the seer scan) than we would have from just about anyone else.

[Tyrith]

And hoops, I can agree with you on that strategy for the villagers. And burning money on services is really antitheical to our end game strategy...but we desperately need seer scans. Even though 25k surprised the heck out of me, too.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alive means that you trust them for that day, based on this format. You can trust every statement Saldana has made over the first two days of the game.

Trust with money - I don't think that is a great idea in terms of moving money to them, naming them as beneficiaries with the bribe option in the game.

I would rather have Saldana alive than dead for a couple of reasons. One, I like playing WW with him and respect his thought process. Two, it would give us slightly better odds with our selection today. But I don't really buy off on the ideas you are listing as the biggest reasons to want the seer scan instead of the corpse. Someone had to die last night, barring a bodyguard block. We got more information from Saldana dying (without the context of him being the seer scan) than we would have from just about anyone else.

If we have one alive clear then that means we can eventually get more. At some point we have to actually trust someone, and with the bribe option, as you said, we can't really trust the first person immediately. But that problem continues to loom over our head until we get past the first cleared person onto more, and that's not going to happen until we kill a wolf or we get multiple seer scans.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Tyrith's vote (411) was indeed the winner as it was the third vote on Mauboy, but at the time it was 3-2 between Mauboy and Sndvls with several people having 1 vote. Saldana's vote (401) was the 2nd on Mauboy which tied him with Sndvls whom had been leading the vote.

Thus are the woes of having to vote when I did -- it was unavoidable that my vote was going to be the one under scruntity, and I'll deal with that.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Thus are the woes of having to vote when I did -- it was unavoidable that my vote was going to be the one under scruntity, and I'll deal with that.

Well I guess that is what I am getting at.. why is your vote under scrutiny? If Hoops is good and he thinks you may have been bad, why vote that way there? Were you trying to save Sndvls? If that is the case, why wouldn't Hoops have mentioned Sndvls name last night too? I'm just trying to figure out his thought process on whom he named.. if there was some logical progression or if he was trying to throw out names to keep from getting scanned himself.

[claphamsa]

and this makes even more curious....

Originally Posted by saldana

dick

[hoopsguy]

Actually, you can trust that first person immediately - but that diminishes each day.

I'm not thrilled that we haven't had a seer scan go through yet. I think we all would like to have that to help with our decision process. I'm equally worried about the fact that our voting records seem pretty worthless.

I can tell you guys that Saldana dead = Hoops Cutthroat is a red herring, but it is up to you (collectively) to believe it. You either do or you don't. Similarly, I can tell you that I won't speculate on the proper seer scan during the night section going forward if that will make people feel better. Ultimately, I don't know if that helps or hurts, as it is still up to the person with the service to make the call on where to go with it. And that includes directing it at me, if that makes the most sense to them.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well I guess that is what I am getting at.. why is your vote under scrutiny? If Hoops is good and he thinks you may have been bad, why vote that way there? Were you trying to save Sndvls? If that is the case, why wouldn't Hoops have mentioned Sndvls name last night too? I'm just trying to figure out his thought process on whom he named.. if there was some logical progression or if he was trying to throw out names to keep from getting scanned himself.

Ahhh, I get your point. Hm. Seems like it goes back to that day one comment? That'd be a really weird basis. And if he's bad a scan on me would turn up good...honestly, I don't know, because I don't see the logical progression there either.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I didn't understand the case on Mauboy. So I looked at the people voting on him and tried to figure out where I stood on those people in terms of trust.

SnDvls - 1st vote, repeat vote from previous day. Not much read
Tyrith - 2nd vote, didn't understand why he picked him out of list at the time after barely mentioning him up to that point in the game
Saldana - 3rd vote, didn't buy his "inexperienced wolf team" slant, and was already working on my theory tying him to Lathum's death (clearly wrong, but it was the theory at the time)

By this point, Mauboy was the leading vote getter and in a game without unvotes he was going to be one of the two main candidates. I went after Saldana to make him the 2nd candidate with my vote, as Tyrith had no votes.

[hoopsguy]

Sigh ... I wasn't trying to keep from being scanned myself. Not anymore than any villager who knows they are a villager believes scans are better spent trying to identify a wolf.

[Tyrith]

My vote was because of the problem path mentioned before me -- it was time to make a choice and stop throwing random votes out there. Path pretty much took away my capacity to duck the choice by going with another candidate...hm, that's a fact to store away. But the fact that I had barely mentioned him is why I voted for him -- tiebreaker is always kill the quiet one, burned into my skull back from the good old days.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

So I assume Schmidty is on your shortlist, then? I don't think I've ever been in a game where he's a wolf, but it is an interesting ploy -- he buys the seer, kills sal, then pushes the blame to hoops for it.

Truth be told, you're much higher on my list than Schmidty is.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

We would be even more on your case if you hadn't bid at all. Pretty much the only lie we would have bought would be that you bid 20k on the seer and lost, but that would have also brought heat from us about the fact that we considered, by consensus, that the telecomm was more important.

We don't know whether he bid or not. Alan won the telecomm apparently (though technically we don't know that either for 100% sure). But there's no way I can see to know for sure who's actually done anything.

I think I just now see the benefit of the Friend of the Bank.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by path12

We don't know whether he bid or not. Alan won the telecomm apparently (though technically we don't know that either for 100% sure). But there's no way I can see to know for sure who's actually done anything.

I think I just now see the benefit of the Friend of the Bank.

Wolves don't have a disincentive to keep cash on hand, though, so they can rig it to confuse us with no cost to themselves.

[hoopsguy]

Just as I said yesterday, I'm happy to have any kind of conversation with the Friend of the Bank that they would like to pursue.

However, the wolves do have an incentive to invest money in CDs to grow those assets as long as they can still pass that along to other players if they are in a pinch with the vote.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Barkeep, how long are the wolves silenced until? Is it just today, or today and tonight?

My hope is that it is a full 24 hours, that way they can not pair up and get both the thief and friend at the bank services. That alone could pay for the costs of those services if they did.

The service is good only during the day cycle.

[path12]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

and this makes even more curious....

They're friends from way back. We like to pretend saldana is a chick.

[Tyrith]

I'm gone till after 2, when I'll be back for around an hour and then be gone until after lynch.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

My vote was because of the problem path mentioned before me -- it was time to make a choice and stop throwing random votes out there. Path pretty much took away my capacity to duck the choice by going with another candidate...hm, that's a fact to store away. But the fact that I had barely mentioned him is why I voted for him -- tiebreaker is always kill the quiet one, burned into my skull back from the good old days.

I had mentioned earlier I had to have my vote in by 4 Pacific/7 Eastern. I had no idea before I voted that you had to vote early also.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Wolves don't have a disincentive to keep cash on hand, though, so they can rig it to confuse us with no cost to themselves.

Sure, but it still gives us a starting point to verify peoples stories about what they have/had available to bid. And if the wolves are really silenced today they won't be able to coordinate very well for tomorrow.

Offhand was there anyone Sal was really going after yesterday? There's always the kill the guy who's onto me angle.