werewolf LIV! Terror at the country club (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN)

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

RPI-Fan- 5 Hoopsguy (82), Telle (107), St.Cronin (296) Path12 (298) MrBug (301)
AlanT 3 MrDNA (143), Neon Chaos (292), PerdueBrad (297)
DaddyTorgo 3- alanT (299), Barkeep (302), render (313)
ChiefRum- 1 Passacaglia (115)
EagleFan-1 RaidersArmy (140)
MrDNA- 1 ArlingtonColt
HoopsGuy -1 EagleFan (167),
Path12- 1 Crim (308)
Neon_Chaos- 1 Oliegirl (199)
St.Cronin- 2 Molson (148) RPIFan (291)


Final vote count. Writeup coming

Here is the final vote count from yesterday - given the late flurry of votes and the number of candidates, I'm guessing we didn't end up with wolves on Neon yesterday unless he was the convert. So Oliegirl moves up the trust list a bit for me.

Early trust list -
Some:
Crim (for reasons outlined before deadline yesterday)
DaddyTorgo (I believe he is who he says he is)
Oliegirl (vote on a wolf yesterday - although she wasn't around to move it if it was an early placeholder)

I think those are a decent place to start at this point in the game as a villager and would be interested in hearing what others think as we move into Day 3.

[molson]

Ya, Olliegirl checked out early yesterday, when the vote was still in doubt. It wouldn't make sense for her to leave her vote with a wolf, if she was a wolf.

Unless NC was the goth and was converted in the non-kill last night. Can we rule that out somehow?

As someone else said yesterday, lynching our seer on day 1 turned out to be a good turn of events. If that hadn't happened, NC would have been fake scanning until we caught up to him.

[Lathum]

You all awake in the morning feeling great about the events of last night. You look around and realize AlanT is missing!

You all rush to his room and see he has been savegaly ripped to shreads! A quick search reveals he was an ordinary villager.

During the shock of it all you notice someone else is missing. Suddenly you hear a blood curling scream and notice Barkeep is missing. You all rush to his room and see a kitchen knif sticking out of his chest, he has been murdered!!!

A quick search of his quarters reveal he was a villager.


Day 3 has begun

[RendeR]

ACK!

[PurdueBrad]

WE LOST TWO?!?

[hoopsguy]

Interesting choices - time for a quick check of the rules.

[Telle]

Gah.. what a freaking turn for the worse.

[PurdueBrad]

Does that mean that Neon was the brutal wolf?

[hoopsguy]

Kitchen knife: Allows you to perform a one time night kill on any player

Looks like this is how they got the 2nd kill - question is was it a wolf with the item or a villager taking a shot at a player they thought was suspicious?

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, will we learn if a player was the Goth/convert when they die? Or do they show up as a straight wolf?

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Does that mean that Neon was the brutal wolf?

I don't think so, the knife is a random item that someone had and generally when teh brutal wolf takes someone down with him there is a specific write up that gives you that bit of info in the night actions summary.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I don't think so, the knife is a random item that someone had and generally when teh brutal wolf takes someone down with him there is a specific write up that gives you that bit of info in the night actions summary.

My bad, assumed the knife was details like the tees, hadn't realized it was one of the tools. TY RendeR.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, will we learn if a player was the Goth/convert when they die? Or do they show up as a straight wolf?

if the goth has not been converted you will be told it was the goth, otherwise it will show up as a wolf

[molson]

So the knife allows a one-night kill. If it randomly ended up in the hands of a wolf to start the game, it makes sense to use it for a double kill earlier rather than later, ESPECIALLY if the goth is off the board - which I guess we don't know, and especially when one of your own had just been killed (and the NC vote has been obvious all day)

[EagleFan]

I haven't been in one of these before so I may be way off but I think I have an idea on another wolf, there just seems to be a bit too much William Shatner type over-acting coming from him.

I'll have to see how a few more of his posts go.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I haven't been in one of these before so I may be way off but I think I have an idea on another wolf, there just seems to be a bit too much William Shatner type over-acting coming from him.

I'll have to see how a few more of his posts go.

I know you, can't possibly be......talking about...ME....can you?

[hoopsguy]

Bummer - would have really helped to understand Day 1 if we had confirm/deny on Neon as the Goth.

FWIW, I think there is a pretty good chance that he was the Goth. Based on the non-kill last night, the wolves not knowing who the Valet was because RPI didn't dispute him. Neon would have absolutely, positively not wanted to die by lynch with that role. It would have given him just as much motivation to fake reveal as a wolf position.

[PurdueBrad]

Off to watch the Saints get finished off. Later guys.

[molson]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

FWIW, I think there is a pretty good chance that he was the Goth. Based on the non-kill last night, the wolves not knowing who the Valet was because RPI didn't dispute him. Neon would have absolutely, positively not wanted to die by lynch with that role. It would have given him just as much motivation to fake reveal as a wolf position.

I'm trying to figure out how it makes any sense for a wolf to do what he did on day 1, but I can't.

A goth though, I can see pretty clearly. As long as the villagers don't lynch the real valet day 1, you're in pretty good shape. The real valet might be too afraid to reveal himself, so you can spread misinformation throughout the game. The wolves will be able to tell that you're spreading BS, and they'll kill you before the villagers have a chance too, giving you what you want.

[EagleFan]

Vote PurdueBrad


Tomorrow is poker night so there is a chance I may not get online between work and leaving so I want to get my vote in now.

[Raiders Army]

Gah, two villegers died...although I think Alan T was a good kill for them (Neon's vote).

[DaddyTorgo]

son of a poo-poo. We lost alan + barkeep?

yikes

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Reason for the near 0 is we had a million people around at deadline yesterday and so I have to think one of them was a wolf and would've submitted an action at that point if none of the others had.

Catching up. I'd agree with this thought, especially in a game this size I can't imagine the wolves not putting an order in.

[EagleFan]

Either someone passed the knife to Neon and he passed it along to another one of his wolf buddies or someone thought they had guessed right on Barkeep. Either way.... Someone's got some splainin' to do....

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Vote PurdueBrad


Tomorrow is poker night so there is a chance I may not get online between work and leaving so I want to get my vote in now.

Eagle, that's cool. I'm new too (second game) so I get it. I'm not going to throw my vote at you though because you aren't the person I suspect but you've put me up for the tie break if I recall correctly from my last game. Anyway, I'm a villager. My voting record should back it up.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Eagle, that's cool. I'm new too (second game) so I get it. I'm not going to throw my vote at you though because you aren't the person I suspect but you've put me up for the tie break if I recall correctly from my last game. Anyway, I'm a villager. My voting record should back it up.

Maybe 27 put you up for a tie break. This is my first WW game.

The only thing I had a strong feeling about is that Neon had to go, from there I have no idea what I'm doing yet.

[path12]

Originally Posted by molson

I mean, everyone's on NC's ass, but geez, the way DT revealed was pretty ridiculous.

Which in large part was why I voted for him. I think Neon's case appears more cut and dried though. I know I plan to consider him again tomorrow.

[EagleFan]

dola: nothing personal about he vote, your immediate responses to the outcome just got me a little suspicious.

[Raiders Army]

I'd be willing to bet that Alan T was killed by the wolves (that was Neon's vote on day 1, so it's logical that he's a villager and would be trusted by us). Barkeep may/or may not have been killed by the wolves. I'd give it a 75% chance that he was if Neon passed something to them...then again, he was a liar.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

dola: nothing personal about he vote, your immediate responses to the outcome just got me a little suspicious.

It's cool, having a student teacher has left me really freakin' bored as my wife can attest to.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Maybe 27 put you up for a tie break. This is my first WW game.

The only thing I had a strong feeling about is that Neon had to go, from there I have no idea what I'm doing yet.

I trust you as well since you put a quick vote on Neon yesterday at a time when there were few votes on anyone else.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

if the goth has not been converted you will be told it was the goth, otherwise it will show up as a wolf

So he could well have been the Goth. Interesting.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I'd be willing to bet that Alan T was killed by the wolves (that was Neon's vote on day 1, so it's logical that he's a villager and would be trusted by us). Barkeep may/or may not have been killed by the wolves. I'd give it a 75% chance that he was if Neon passed something to them...then again, he was a liar.

Meant that Neon was a liar.

[path12]

Originally Posted by molson

I'm trying to figure out how it makes any sense for a wolf to do what he did on day 1, but I can't.

A goth though, I can see pretty clearly. As long as the villagers don't lynch the real valet day 1, you're in pretty good shape. The real valet might be too afraid to reveal himself, so you can spread misinformation throughout the game. The wolves will be able to tell that you're spreading BS, and they'll kill you before the villagers have a chance too, giving you what you want.

I tend to agree with you and hoops and think it was likely he was the goth. What surprises me about that is that you'd think the bodyguard would have been on him (since it wasn't learned about RPI until after deadline), so it was kind of a risky hit. That's what I find interesting about it.

[molson]

I find it hard to believe a villager would take a shot with the knife like that at this point.

[path12]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Either someone passed the knife to Neon and he passed it along to another one of his wolf buddies or someone thought they had guessed right on Barkeep. Either way.... Someone's got some splainin' to do....

Which reminds me -- did Neon actually ever give any items away to anyone? I know I didn't get anything.

[hoopsguy]

FWIW, earlier in the game DT made a comment about being upset if we voted him off Day 1 again. I jokingly posted that this made me want to vote for him. His response was pretty laid back, something like "go for it" - it didn't make me think he was the Duke at the time, but that exchange stuck in my mind when he did suggest he was the Duke.

Was the reveal done well? I don't think he would argue that it was, but the voting at the end of Day 1 looked pretty chaotic based on my catch-up reading. Bottom line is that I believe him until I have a reason not to, and with that in mind I didn't feel a need to force the action to him instead of voting for someone that I had strong suspicions of nefarious motivations in Neon.

In future days when I feel like there is less certainty I might be more inclined to allow DT to demonstrate his duke status. If the wolves let him live long enough, I might start questioning the reveal a little more as well - don't know for sure, but there is a chance if they want to play chicken with a more trusted figure.

[hoopsguy]

There are items in this game? Huh, wouldn't know it from my lack of PMs from the moderator.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

There are items in this game? Huh, wouldn't know it from my lack of PMs from the moderator.

Mine either. It's like Charlie Brown on Valentines Day.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by molson

I find it hard to believe a villager would take a shot with the knife like that at this point.

You shouldn't.


I admit it, I killed BK with the kitchen knife. I was certain he was using our own obvious-logic against us. He's that good! I was wrong.


Sorry BK.

[path12]

Sigh. I don't think this could have been a worse start if we tried.

[hoopsguy]

Well, I'm closing in on bed time here. It looks like I'll have some PC issues again tomorrow as I have to head back to the same client in the morning.

Path and Chief - if you guys want to try and chat for a few minutes I'm game. I'm not normally around for the late-night skull sessions with the west coast crowd.

[hoopsguy]

Guess not.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

FWIW, earlier in the game DT made a comment about being upset if we voted him off Day 1 again. I jokingly posted that this made me want to vote for him. His response was pretty laid back, something like "go for it" - it didn't make me think he was the Duke at the time, but that exchange stuck in my mind when he did suggest he was the Duke.

picked that up hmm? excellent

Was the reveal done well? I don't think he would argue that it was, but the voting at the end of Day 1 looked pretty chaotic based on my catch-up reading. Bottom line is that I believe him until I have a reason not to, and with that in mind I didn't feel a need to force the action to him instead of voting for someone that I had strong suspicions of nefarious motivations in Neon.

nope. It was horribly done. The end of day 1 was chaotic and I was really distracted and aggrivated too. But that's not an excuse. But as alan pointed out, the real duke could quite easily kill me now if I was a wolf.

[Crim]

Back from work, checking in. Hope I ain't dead.

[molson]

One more random thought for the night.

The vote was a NC runaway. Obviously, the wolves at some point (wisely) threw in the towel rather than defend him too much. But the landslide wasn't always obvious. As some point it was DT/NC neck-and-neck. Now, obviously, DT claimed to be the club member (duke), and told us he planned to hit NC if we hit him. So maybe this is all a moot point, but you'd think if there was a close race between a wolf and a non-wolf, there'd be SOME attempt by the wolves to save their own. So here's the order of votes:

-DT Votes for NC (1-0)
-Purduebrad votes for NC (2-0)
-DT offers to take the vote, and duke NC
-Lathum reveals no-kill
-Crim votes for DT (2-1)
-Telle votes for NC (3-1)
-EagleFan votes for DT (3-2)
-St. Cronin votes for NC (4-2)
-Mr. Bug votes for DT (4-3)
-Path votes for DT (4-4)
-Chief Rum votes for NC (5-4)
-Hoopsguy votes for NC (6-4)
-Oilliegirl votes for NC (7-4)
-Arlington votes for NC (8-4)
-Mr. Bug unvotes DT (8-3)
-Passacaglia votes for NC (9-3)
-Raiders Army votes for NC (10-4)
-AlanT votes for NC (11-4)
-RenderR votes for NC (12-4)
-Eaglefan unvotes DT (12-3)
-Barkeet votes for DT (12-4)
-Eaglefan votes for NC (13-4)
-Mr. Bug votes for DT (13-5)
-molson votes for NC (14-5)
-Mr. DNA votes for NC (15-5)

-Eaglefan, Mr. Bug, and path made this a pretty close race in the beginning, by voting for DT. Then Cheif Rum, Hoopsguy, Olliegirl, and Arlington start the landslide.

-Interestingly, Eaglefan and Mr. Bug then withdraw their votes for DT, without immediately voting for someone else. (Were they throwing in the towel?) After some time passes, they split their vote, Eaglefan for NC, and Mr. Bug right back to DT. Suspicious to me.

-I'm not saying I figured anything out, just a theory, perhaps others can see things in the voting sequence.

[molson]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

picked that up hmm? excellent



nope. It was horribly done. The end of day 1 was chaotic and I was really distracted and aggrivated too. But that's not an excuse. But as alan pointed out, the real duke could quite easily kill me now if I was a wolf.

If things were that chaotic, you were that distracted and aggravated, why not wait 2 minutes to confirm you counted right?

Alan T's logic (as always) is sound, but I wonder if there's a wild card here we're not considering.

[Crim]

Okay, caught up. I tell ya what, I'm disappointed that we lost two, but as far as RendeR making BK into a pincushion, I get it. I had no faith in BK either, and have been "on" him since day 1, but had nothing concrete to base it on, so kept quiet. Then with his shenanigans before today's deadline about Neon being innocent-but-misguided, my spidey senses were buzzing.

So, all's I'm sayin is, I can't really blame RendeR. Glad I wasn't given a knife by Lathum, or you guys might be mad at me instead!

[Crim]

Originally Posted by molson

One more random thought for the night.

The vote was a NC runaway. Obviously, the wolves at some point (wisely) threw in the towel rather than defend him too much. But the landslide wasn't always obvious. As some point it was DT/NC neck-and-neck. Now, obviously, DT claimed to be the club member (duke), and told us he planned to hit NC if we hit him. So maybe this is all a moot point, but you'd think if there was a close race between a wolf and a non-wolf, there'd be SOME attempt by the wolves to save their own. So here's the order of votes:

-DT Votes for NC (1-0)
-Purduebrad votes for NC (2-0)
-DT offers to take the vote, and duke NC
-Lathum reveals no-kill
-Crim votes for DT (2-1)
-Telle votes for NC (3-1)
-EagleFan votes for DT (3-2)
-St. Cronin votes for NC (4-2)
-Mr. Bug votes for DT (4-3)
-Path votes for DT (4-4)
-Chief Rum votes for NC (5-4)
-Hoopsguy votes for NC (6-4)
-Oilliegirl votes for NC (7-4)
-Arlington votes for NC (8-4)
-Mr. Bug unvotes DT (8-3)
-Passacaglia votes for NC (9-3)
-Raiders Army votes for NC (10-4)
-AlanT votes for NC (11-4)
-RenderR votes for NC (12-4)
-Eaglefan unvotes DT (12-3)
-Barkeet votes for DT (12-4)
-Eaglefan votes for NC (13-4)
-Mr. Bug votes for DT (13-5)
-molson votes for NC (14-5)
-Mr. DNA votes for NC (15-5)

-Eaglefan, Mr. Bug, and path made this a pretty close race in the beginning, by voting for DT. Then Cheif Rum, Hoopsguy, Olliegirl, and Arlington start the landslide.

-Interestingly, Eaglefan and Mr. Bug then withdraw their votes for DT, without immediately voting for someone else. (Were they throwing in the towel?) After some time passes, they split their vote, Eaglefan for NC, and Mr. Bug right back to DT. Suspicious to me.

-I'm not saying I figured anything out, just a theory, perhaps others can see things in the voting sequence.

This is nice work, molson, thx for posting it. I don't know if there's anything in there that I can see. Hopefully some of our big brain guys can see through the clutter to something important in it.

Your theory makes some sense to me, as Mr. Bug has been giving me the creeps. So has Cronin. I'll re-check, but I think Alan had these guys and one other on his "hmmm" list as well, and his instincts are pretty dang good.

[path12]

I don't have a problem with him using the knife. I don't like the fact it was so early. A little patience might have saved us a good villager.