Werewolf CXXIV - Watchmen (Game Over, Wolves Win!, endpost:704)

[EagleFan]

Wolves party too much for the Super Bowl and not get an attack in?

[EagleFan]

They could be playing a numbers game but I'll wait to see if anything special happened this morning before going into that.

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to go back through some Saldana posts now, but one thing that I did see is that Saldana was pretty eager to go after EF for his role reveal.

This is nudging me a little closer to trusting EF. Not quite there yet, but closer than I was before the lynch on Friday.

[jeff061]

I'm waiting for Chief's reveal, expecting confirmation on me/Darth or J23. For cunning I'm about 70% on Eagle. 20% on Hoops. 10% on Danny.

[hoopsguy]

Day 2:

Originally Posted by The Jackal
ntn - 6 - (DV 194, CR 197, J23 227, PF 238, saldana 241, Lathum 244)
saldana - 5 - (EF 195, jeff 199, Danny 223, hoops 232, DT 234)
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)

Day 2 Saldana vote - he was saved by villagers, as has been previously pointed out by Chief. But that also suggests that they were either willing to discard him on D2 or that they were already locked earlier.

Even if we think J23 is the brutal, I think we are at the point where we are voting for him today. DV has a vouch from Jeff, and Jeff has a good vote on the Saldana vote to help generate additional trust.

Will wait to see what Chief Rum has for results today, but J23 seems like the vote today.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by jeff061

I'm waiting for Chief's reveal, expecting confirmation on me/Darth or J23. For cunning I'm about 70% on Eagle. 20% on Hoops. 10% on Danny.

I would move those percentages to include the possibility that all 3 of us are good and that the cunning has not been scanned. I don't know how much you should move the numbers, but it should be at least a 1% chance.

[jeff061]

Even if we think J23 is the brutal, I think we are at the point where we are voting for him today. DV has a vouch from Jeff, and Jeff has a good vote on the Saldana vote to help generate additional trust.

I disagree with that completely. We take out Brutal they take 3 out before tomorrow. We need to get cunning now.

I would move those percentages to include the possibility that all 3 of us are good and that the cunning has not been scanned. I don't know how much you should move the numbers, but it should be at least a 1% chance.

Who's left to be scanned? Are you including me and Darth?

[jeff061]

As a side note, quite honestly I could care less about the voting patterns the first few days. Friday and today is crunch time and is where the important info is. First few days it's just worthless information, Wolves just generating confusion without much pressure.

Pressure's on now and they need to affect an outcome, not just confuse. This is real information. This included your first few posts so far today hoops .

[hoopsguy]

Jeff, there is a possibility that there is only one wolf left - that Ozy has cunning/brutal to go with his other powers.

I'm up for other candidates than J23, but the numbers strongly suggest he is a wolf and we have varying degrees of trust for most of the remaining players in the game. I would take the wolf in hand with the potential for ending the game if it was my call.

[jeff061]

True on the unknown powers, overlooked that. Going to wait for Chief.

[EagleFan]

Putting this out as a place holder, subject to change is anything dramatic happened last night.

vote J23

[EagleFan]

Kind of quiet in here this morning. I'll check back in here when I can, but will be tied up most of the afternoon (unless meetings change). Will probably be online for a while tonight (need to run another NFL WC game for that dynasty thread but will be in and out of this thread as well).

[hoopsguy]

I know Chief's work schedule means that his time @ FOFC can be a little bit erratic, but obviously a lot of us are waiting to see what results he might be able to share.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I'm getting bored waiting for Chief to check in. Not blaming him, as I know what his work schedule can be like but we still have a game to play today even if he doesn't arrive.

I'll revisit this if new information emerges, but for now,
VOTE J23

[hoopsguy]

Also hoping PF shows up to say if he had a role in the "no kill" last night.

[jeff061]

Still questioning logic of killing J23 tonight.

What are people's thoughts in a potential conversion power for Ozy?

[Chief Rum]

Hey everyone, sorry for the wait. I unfortunately can't use an excuse; I am off of work today for work reasons (yeah, try to figure that out, company's trying to give out these "days off" in lieu of laying people off, ugh...). I was running some scans on my computer over night and they weren't finished when I got up, so I just read a book for a bit until they finished.

Frankly, I assumed I would be dead here, so didn't rush back.

Okay, now's the news you have been waiting for: J23 is a wolf.

VOTE J23

[Chief Rum]

As for the problem of killing the brutal, which, presumably, J23 is, the issue there is that no matter what we do, I find it unlikely we can save Darth. He was probably protected last night by PF, which means he can't be protected tonight. So even if we stay away from J23 and his brutal power in the lynch, we're still looking at losing Darth and jeff at once with a night kill.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Still questioning logic of killing J23 tonight.

What are people's thoughts in a potential conversion power for Ozy?

There is nothing in the rules about that. Not saying it then can't exist, but I would imagine any unknown powers wouldn't be of the game-changing variety like that.

For instance, PF's unknown power seems to have been to inherit the BG's powers. Well, we knew the BG's powers were in the game; the only thing we didn't know was that they could transfer.

[jeff061]

So it comes down to do we lynch J23 tonight and likely be short by 3 villagers tomorrow. Everyone seems to be siding with this line of thinking.

So tomorrow we'll most likely have:
Packer
Danny
Eagle
Hoops
Chief

Say, and I'm only picking this at random, we Lynch Eagle tomorrow

Then left with the following for a 2nd try:
Packer
Danny
Hoops

So 2 tries to find the remaining. People confident in that? I'm leaning towards being ok with hit. Mostly becuase I'm more and more torn on Hoops and Eagle.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Still questioning logic of killing J23 tonight.

What are people's thoughts in a potential conversion power for Ozy?

I'm pretty sure our moderator has stated that conversions are not part of this game. Can go hunting in thread to confirm it.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

There is nothing in the rules about that. Not saying it then can't exist, but I would imagine any unknown powers wouldn't be of the game-changing variety like that.

For instance, PF's unknown power seems to have been to inherit the BG's powers. Well, we knew the BG's powers were in the game; the only thing we didn't know was that they could transfer.

Precisely the kind of feedback I was looking for, I'll take your word on that.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

(There are no conversions in this game, the Cultist merely wins with the wolves, should he be in the game)

There it is, in ugly purple font

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

As for the problem of killing the brutal, which, presumably, J23 is, the issue there is that no matter what we do, I find it unlikely we can save Darth. He was probably protected last night by PF, which means he can't be protected tonight. So even if we stay away from J23 and his brutal power in the lynch, we're still looking at losing Darth and jeff at once with a night kill.

Well not matter what I and Darth are likely dead tonight. Pending anything unexpected from Packer. Only question is if we lose a third as well, which is what killed the brutal would do.

Brutal kills Darth and I, then a third lost to night kill. Alternative being Darth and I for the night kill and nothing else.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by jeff061

So it comes down to do we lynch J23 tonight and likely be short by 3 villagers tomorrow. Everyone seems to be siding with this line of thinking.

So tomorrow we'll most likely have:
Packer
Danny
Eagle
Hoops
Chief

Say, and I'm only picking this at random, we Lynch Eagle tomorrow

Then left with the following for a 2nd try:
Packer
Danny
Hoops

So 2 tries to find the remaining. People confident in that? I'm leaning towards being ok with hit. Mostly becuase I'm more and more torn on Hoops and Eagle.

Math in my head has us at 6-2 today. If we kill J23 today and he takes Darth and then you with Darth, that puts us at 4-1. Then if the wolves get their nightkill, 3-1 going into tomorrow.

So tomorrow will actually be the only chance.

[Chief Rum]

If that happens, it will probably come down to Eagle versus hoops.

I am actually leaning toward making that discussion happen today. Let me crunch the numbers...

[Chief Rum]

If we lynch EF or hoops today and whichever one we lynch is a villager, then we go to 5-2. Then the wolves kill Darth and jeff, and we go to 3-2 tomorrow.

So we're in end game there, also. If we kill J23 there, he takes a villager and it's 2-1. The cunning takes out a villager and the wolves win.

So either way, we have one more day after today, barring a PF BG protect.

[Chief Rum]

The question becomes do we want to decide the cunning among us today or wait until tomorrow? I would actually recommend today, while there are more of us villagers. We will be less open to manipulation.

BTW, not that there was any doubt, but we can now confirm the cunning is in the game. The brutal was always going to be in the game; the question was whether the brutal and cunning would be one in the same. Since J23 is almost certainly the brutal, given what was happening on Friday, but I was able to scan him as evil (so he's not the cunning), that certainly means the cunning is present.

[hoopsguy]

I'm fine with that discussion today, if everyone thinks it is the way to go. But I also think it leads us back to a discussion on what the starting numbers would look like for this game.

14 players, do you think 3 wolves + cultist would be realistic?

I'm coming around to the idea that both me + EF (and Danny) might be good, and that it started with 2 wolves + cultist.

I don't know either way, but I do know I'll be interested in seeing the game balance at the end when knowing what roles were in/out for this one, as well as the "unknown" capabilities of the two top guys.

2 wolves + cultist feels like a bit mountain to climb, with the powers available to Dr. Manhatten. But 3 wolves + cultist has potential to be a very quick game with a couple of bad early lynches. Again, no idea how this sorts out but this is what I've been mulling over the weekend and while considering what to do about the cunning wolf.

[Chief Rum]

BTW, while I don't think he should say where he's going with his protection, I would recommend PF use his protective ability on some he's not expected to need to protect tomorrow, like jeff for instance. This way, he will have complete protective powers, even on himself, if it comes down to a nightkill for the game, and give the wolves that much more difficulty in winning it, should they get the lynches they want the next two days.

[hoopsguy]

Ah, Chief - guess post #628 answers the stuff that I was bandying about with potential for cunning/brutal to be one and the same.

Well, I'm not really sure how to argue my villagerness but if there is a case to be made against EF I can start looking at the voting records and see where Saldana + J23 fell relative to him.

I would be careful about giving Danny a 100% free pass, even though I've been leaning towards EF all game long.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm fine with that discussion today, if everyone thinks it is the way to go. But I also think it leads us back to a discussion on what the starting numbers would look like for this game.

14 players, do you think 3 wolves + cultist would be realistic?

I'm coming around to the idea that both me + EF (and Danny) might be good, and that it started with 2 wolves + cultist.

I don't know either way, but I do know I'll be interested in seeing the game balance at the end when knowing what roles were in/out for this one, as well as the "unknown" capabilities of the two top guys.

2 wolves + cultist feels like a bit mountain to climb, with the powers available to Dr. Manhatten. But 3 wolves + cultist has potential to be a very quick game with a couple of bad early lynches. Again, no idea how this sorts out but this is what I've been mulling over the weekend and while considering what to do about the cunning wolf.

I'll leave that discussion for you guys, I don't have much of a feel for these numbers.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm fine with that discussion today, if everyone thinks it is the way to go. But I also think it leads us back to a discussion on what the starting numbers would look like for this game.

14 players, do you think 3 wolves + cultist would be realistic?

I'm coming around to the idea that both me + EF (and Danny) might be good, and that it started with 2 wolves + cultist.

I don't know either way, but I do know I'll be interested in seeing the game balance at the end when knowing what roles were in/out for this one, as well as the "unknown" capabilities of the two top guys.

2 wolves + cultist feels like a bit mountain to climb, with the powers available to Dr. Manhatten. But 3 wolves + cultist has potential to be a very quick game with a couple of bad early lynches. Again, no idea how this sorts out but this is what I've been mulling over the weekend and while considering what to do about the cunning wolf.

There are a lot of villager roles in this one, though, which also had the potential to become cleared villagers. Plus, one of the two most powerful villager roles, essentially survives a death.

I think 14 was a tricky number for The Jackal to balance, but if I had to guess with what we know now, I would say it's far more likely to have three wolves & cultist over two wolves & cultist. And that's even besides the fact I could scan J23 as a wolf (see previous post).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Ah, Chief - guess post #628 answers the stuff that I was bandying about with potential for cunning/brutal to be one and the same.

Well, I'm not really sure how to argue my villagerness but if there is a case to be made against EF I can start looking at the voting records and see where Saldana + J23 fell relative to him.

I would be careful about giving Danny a 100% free pass, even though I've been leaning towards EF all game long.

Actually, I would be very unlikely to vote for you.

On the pivotal vote of Day Two between saldana and ntndeacon, when they were tied 3-3, in the last hour, DT voted sal up 4-3. You then shortly after voted sal up to 5-3. 4-3 was very much in doubt; saldana had not yet even vote switched to protect himself. 5-3, and it looks like the wolves needed help to protect sal.

I find that to be a very unlikely vote for you to have made if you are the cunning.

Pretty much all of our evidence points to EF as the cunning. I am fine testing that theory.

UNVOTE J23
VOTE EAGLEFAN

[hoopsguy]

I just double-checked to make sure we've got a role claim from everyone, and we do for all except Danny who is Rum-cleared.

Since we've got two wolves left, and more or less everyone has claimed something (I've claimed vanilla, in my very first post after the game started, for those scoring at home) I'm all for going after the cunning now if we have two shots.

UNVOTE J23
VOTE EAGLEFAN

[jeff061]

Vote EagleFan

I pinned Saldana as a non-brutal yesterday almost solely based off how I would expect Eagle to behave as a wolf. Strong enough evidence for me right now.

[J23]

Clearly Chief is a wolf and the real seer role didn't make it into the game. I mean, the wolves know who the villagers are and what roles aren't in the game, so it's easy to fake. I was just minding my own business basking in the glory of the Liverpool v. Chelsea game this past weekend and I come back to this assault on my character.

vote Chief Rum

[jeff061]

lol. I was wondering how you'd respond. Good show .

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by J23

Clearly Chief is a wolf and the real seer role didn't make it into the game. I mean, the wolves know who the villagers are and what roles aren't in the game, so it's easy to fake. I was just minding my own business basking in the glory of the Liverpool v. Chelsea game this past weekend and I come back to this assault on my character.

vote Chief Rum

[saldana]

Originally Posted by J23

I was just minding my own business basking in the glory of the Liverpool v. Chelsea game this past weekend and I come back to this assault on my character.

hey jackal, can i please vote for J23 based on this post.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by saldana

hey jackal, can i please vote for J23 based on this post.

I'm an arsenal fan, you two can beat each other up for all I care!

[J23]

Saldana, don't tell me you're a Chelski fan like Hoops.

Jackal, I'll just try to pretend Arsenal didn't play this last weekend for your sake.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by J23

Clearly Chief is a wolf and the real seer role didn't make it into the game. I mean, the wolves know who the villagers are and what roles aren't in the game, so it's easy to fake. I was just minding my own business basking in the glory of the Liverpool v. Chelsea game this past weekend and I come back to this assault on my character.

vote Chief Rum

Can I vote for him a 2nd time?

[hoopsguy]

Oops, voting for the cunning instead of the brutal. Very solid attempt to goad me into voting for you

[EagleFan]

Thee wolves actually turned the numbers game to them a little better with no kill last night. If they had a kill and it gets to 2-1 with myself, hoops and Danny they can then only win if I am the choice for a lynch.

You're making a stupid move by going after me but it you want to lose the game go for it. I'm an Eagles fan so I am used to seeing my team choke in the end...

Ask yourself why the heat turned up on me after my reveal. Because the wolves can't afford to have me around at the end and they are backed into a corner where they can't night kill me. Then ask yourself who turned that heat up. saldana and hoops.

[EagleFan]

If we want to win this thing we might as well go this route.

unvote J23

vote hoops

[Danny]

Catching up

[EagleFan]

Numbers to think about...

6-2 now...

If you go vote me out it will be 3-2 after the morning and then you have to nail the cunning or it's game over.

6-2 now and if we vote hoops out it will either be 4-1 or 3-2. Obviously with it 4-1 we win as we have J23 next.

If it's 3-2 we can still win by voting J23 out. If he brutals me it will be 2-1 against Danny and game over for the village. If he brutals the "lovers" it will be 1-1 and my role comes into play, a no win situation for them.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

You wake up and once more find all of your numbers intact. Divine providence? Luck? Or something sinister?

Day five begins!

Nice!

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I just double-checked to make sure we've got a role claim from everyone, and we do for all except Danny who is Rum-cleared.

Since we've got two wolves left, and more or less everyone has claimed something (I've claimed vanilla, in my very first post after the game started, for those scoring at home) I'm all for going after the cunning now if we have two shots.

UNVOTE J23
VOTE EAGLEFAN

Pretty obvious, but I am vanilla.