WW - Nightmare Before Christmas (Game Over - Wolves Win!!!)

[Danny]

Didn't read Coffee as Santa, but I figured both he and Martin were villagers. I feel very strong about Autumn being a wolf. He made strong effort to link CW to Jackal and has tried to piggy back on others sticking their neck out while laying under the radar himself.

[Danny]

Just a note here, but we are at en end game scenario now. There are three players we should not vote tonight. DT (cleared) and Juggler and I. There is at least one wolf (and possibly two) out of the other three players. Those players are

Lathum
Autumn
Raiders Army

Votes should only be for those players to increase our chances of getting a wolf.

[Danny]

If we happen to a hit a wolf tonight that is not the cunning, then Juggler and I get thrown back into the mix with everyone else for finding the last wolf.

[thejuggler3]

Looked over all the posts from today. Gotta go with:

Vote Raiders Army

His actions are just way too suspicious. Can't believe I spent the last two days on the freaking seer. Anyway, who I would consider my best suspect is Danny, but with him passing the scan, he's either the cunning or safe. I'll go with a surer bet.

Since he came in, RA put the capstone on PackerFanatic, tried to start an early run on Chief the day the wolves took him out, went with sal instead of Jackal when this didn't pan out, and then went with Martin (to be fair, on this one both the prime suspects were villagers). Some of that is excusable for him coming in late to the game, but either he's the unluckiest guy or something is just wrong. I can't help but see the wolves using his late entry to try to get some more obvious votes in. I just can't write off all the misteps. He's hit #1 on my list.

Have more detailed thoughts, but head says it's sleepy. We'll see where things come up tomorrow.

G'night folks.

[Danny]

Just to see if my gut is right, my guess is the last two wolves are juggler and Autumn. I wont be voting Juggler today for the reasons I posted, but throwing this out there in case I end up right

[thejuggler3]

Didn't catch the new page, Danny. It'd sure be nice to get the cunning today . That would pretty much be the nail in the coffin, but that's just my positive attitude.

Agree that we need to go with one of the three non-scanned, non-guaranteed villagers.

Open to some discussion if there's something I'm missing, but I still think RA is the best bet of the bunch.

That early Chief vote and switch when it went nowhere sells it for me.

Gnight folks!

[Lathum]

what is the plan for weekend play?

[Raiders Army]

Well, that didn't go well.

[Raiders Army]

Well then, in my mind I'm convinced. There are six players left. DT, Juggler, and Danny are all cleared. I know I'm good, so that means that Lathum and Autumn are the remaining wolves.

[Raiders Army]

Wait...okay. Only DT is cleared right? Juggler and Danny could be the cunning.

Being that I don't think Lathum is a wolf...I'll have to go with Autumn for today.

VOTE AUTUMN

[Autumn]

I'll be out most of the morning, gotta take my youngest to get his stitches out. I'm not sure who I'll vote, but obviously it won't be me. I will argue against myself when I have time, since I think a vote for me ends the game, but I'll have to do that later. All I can say is that a vote like Raider's, picking me over Lathum for no reason, isn't going to win us the game.

It's entirely possible we have two wolves out of the three of us, something I'll be keeping in mind as I look that over. Also possible Juggler's playing the quiet wolf and I'm barking up the wrong tree with Danny. I certainly haven't done too good so far. Though I have to say Danny's strange play makes a lot more sense if he's the cunning looking for a scan. That's the only explanation that's made sense to me so far.

Lathum and RA are two players I don't have a strong read on right now, so I'll have to come back to this later.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

what is the plan for weekend play?

No weekend deadline. Monday will be the next day.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

life will never be the same

Word.

[Autumn]

I guess I haven't missed much. My time will be limited today, customer's are breathing down my neck and so are the kids.

I hate being targeted as I'm not sure Raider's Army is where I'd want to go with a vote, and I don't want to be forced into the wrong vote just because I'm on the block. The place I feel surest about is Danny, who's been pinging me all game, and him being cunning makes a lot of sense. That feels the highest percentage play for me, versus choosing randomly between Lathum and Raider's Army, neither of whom have struck me as wolf-like.

I'm not going to have a lot of time to pore over votes. I'd love to hear people's arguments for Raider, those who are voting him. Those who are voting me I'd love to hear your arguments too, as I feel I've played the way I always do. I know I usually get heat as I talk a lot in thread. Other guys slide by without saying much and somehow that makes me more wolfish than them.

Certainly if I was a wolf I would have piled onto Jackal along with Chief and Danny. I didn't in order to keep it closer and see if we could draw a wolf out. No wolf is going to stick their neck out like that when there's a simple play that can draw them trust.

Raider's Army just doesn't have much evidence either way, having come in late and essentially missed two day's voting. Lathum I would be more likely to vote. He's been quieter than usual at spots, playing the helpful villager other spots with his analysis. I'd have to look back at it to see whether I still would trust it or whether it's a wolf guiding us.

[Lathum]

Vote count?

[EagleFan]

As of post 615:

Autumn 2 - Danny (600), Raiders Army (610)
Raiders Army 1 - thejuggler3 (604)

[Lathum]

I have to ask myself why would Autumn not want to vote RA and instead look at me. Either he and RA are both wolves and he wants to push it my way, or RA is a wolf.

If Autumn is a wolf why not just vote RA and be done with it?

I am thinking maybe they are both wolves but don't want to tip their hands but RA is the more likely choice.

VOTE RA

[Lathum]

I hope someone is around at deadline to break ties

[Autumn]

In before dinner and kids. I know I should just vote RA to save myself, and maybe I will. But I'd like to make an educated choice - not being sure who the wolves are, I don't know if they're the ones encouraging the RA vote. I haven't had time today to sit and look at things myself, and I hate to be led by the nose to voting him instead of you, Lathum.

I'll be back after the kids are in bed.

[EagleFan]

As of post 619:

Autumn 2 - Danny (600), Raiders Army (610)
Raiders Army 2 - thejuggler3 (604), Lathum (617)

[Autumn]

All right, the rest of the family went out for a bit so I have a couple moments to post something. And I had the time doing dishes to think things through. Unfortunately I can't read posts while I do the dishes, but I realized I don't need to if I just examine the end game scenarios. We know the situation, know what the wolves have to do and so we should be able to ID them. I did this thinking for my own benefit so you'll have to excuse me leaving myself out of the analysis.

I have two scenarios to examine. One is if there is one cunning wolf among the scanned and one among the rest of us. The other is that there are two wolves among the non-scanned. In either case the wolves just need to escape today and they win. If they get caught today then they have to escape one more lynch vote tomorrow. We have to factor in that they're playing for the end game then: hopefully escape lynch tomorrow, but if not make sure that the last wolf is out of the running tomorrow.

Let's take the first: either Danny or Juggler3 is a wolf, and then one of Raider's Army or Lathum. Both Danny and Raider's Army have had a lot of attention before today, they would both be likely targets, Lathum and Juggler are more under the radar. The wolf strategy here depends mostly on whether the wolf is Lathum or RA. If Lathum is the wolf, then all they have to do is avoid attention today, keep the vote focused on me and RA. Danny went into the day saying he was heading my direction. Lathum expressed an intention to vote RA last night. Juggler voted RA fairly early. So everything matches there.

If RA was the wolf, not Lathum, then the wolf strategy would be to have the scanned wolf vote RA, but try to lean things to me. They can always switch their vote last minute to swap the lynch if possible - if not they go into tomorrow looking clear for voting for a wolf. If the scanned wolf votes me but RA gets lynched and is a wolf, the scanned wolf looks bad and goes down the second day. Here, Juggler voted RA, so could be following this scenario. Danny however voting me would stand out tomorrow if RA gets lynched, and probably get himself lynched. Danny/RA seems an unlikely combination.

Now let's assume both Danny and Juggler are good guys. Lathum and RA are the last two wolves. They're in a tighter position - they have to get me lynched today to win, but RA is a likely target. If RA gets lynched, Lathum's got to look good enough tomorrow to deflect the vote to Danny or Juggler. So obviously Lathum votes RA, RA votes me, and if they can Lathum switches later. Again this matches with what's happening.

So the vote situation we're in now matches either Danny and Lathum as the wolves, Juggler and RA or Lathum and RA. I'm not sure which of those is the most likely, but 2/3 of them involve Lathum, so it makes more sense for me to vote Lathum than RA.

VOTE LATHUM

[Raiders Army]

I'm not sure how you can vote Lathum being that he was key to bagging a wolf (IIRC).

I'm sorry I'm not more help right now, but to be honest if I were voting for someone, it'd probably be me. My voting record is beyond abysmal. I don't really have anything in my defense other than I'm a vanilla villager, which isn't anything at all.

I think we'll have to hit a wolf tonight and it'll be hard to root out the cunning.

[Autumn]

Well, again I haven't been able to look back at voting history, this is all based on endgame stuff. I don't recall how Jackal's lynch went down. If someone has voting history? I'll look at it but i think we all know wolves sometimes have great voting histories. This seems to me a way to get around that.

And frankly in one of those three scenarios you and Lathum are pack mates ;-)

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK, so going off this list

Saldana-Casts first stone on DT D1, D2 switches off Darth and onto PF, both known villagers. Don't really see a point in a wolf doing this since either way they get a villager lynched.

Martin D-D1 casts an early second vote for DT, D2 casts 3rd vote for PF, putting him 2 votes ahead of RA and breaking a tie with DV, who at the time Could it be a ploy to protect RA and set up an early DV/ PF showdown?

Chief Rum-D1 CR puts out a "self preservation" vote even though there were only 4 total votes cast but he had to leave for the day. He pushed DT up by 2 at that point over PF, both villagers. Don't see a wolf pulling that move early D1. D2 votes DV creating a tie with PF and DV, both villagers. This move looks bad considering both are villagers, any way you slice it you can spin that move to look bad. Leaning towards trusting CR for now

Lathum- LAte vote on DT D1, late vote on PF D2. Could be wolfy based on the late votes.

theJuggler-Votes DT late D1 putting it pretty much out of reach using the argumenthe didn't want a tie. D2 unvotes PAss and votes PF, putting more distance between PF and DV. Don't see a wolf making this move, really no point there since he knows as a wolf they both are villagers and it makes him look bad.

CoffeeWarlord-D1 unvotes Saldana and votes PF, kind of a strange move, especially since we know PF is now a villager and Sal and CW are both unknowns. Could the D1 Sal vote be to attempt to buy trust? D2 early jump on PF and leaves it there. Something doesn't sit right with me about him. It also seems like he was trying to play the helpful villager early.

RA-no D1 vote-D2 late vote on PF doesn't give us much to go with. The connection that interests me is a potential one between him and MartinD

So that is all the people with votes on known villagers both days.

The others

Danny- D1 casts vote for Saldana, making him the 4th candidate. Claims he isn't a fan of voting DT because he has 3 votes already. Also doesn't want to vote CR or PF, no idea why not. Instead he goes Saldana. Now we know PF and DT are both villagers, could he possible have been protecting CR? Or was he bringing in Sal, confident he likely doesn't get lynched but can buy trust down the road? D2 he goes Saldana and sticks with it despite there being no traction. Not sure if he came back to the thread prior to deadline. all in all not looking like great moves from Danny.

The Jackal- Late vote on Sal D1 bringing us closer to a tie, a very bad thing. If Sal and Jackal are both wolves this is actually a brilliant move for Jackal. A tie ensures Sal isn't lynched, and eithre PF or CR are. A DT lynch and Jackals vote is completely justifiable, a Sal lynch would require a come from behing and would make Jackal very trusted. D2 votes DV, claiming he doesn't want to nail PF, and brings DV a notch closer. At that time RA, Pass and Sal also had votes. Something about him doesn't seem right to me.


Autumn- D1 vote on an unknown Sal after unvoting DV. I don't see this as a wolf play, why switch your vote from a known villager when you could easily leave it buried there. D2 casts an early vote for PF, a known villager and leaves it there. Nothing to fishy here.

Originally Posted by Lathum

Going off my analysis the people who look worst are JAckal, CW, Danny, and MartinD.

Now of that group they were all on eithe DT or Sal D1 except CW. I have to wonder if the wolves would leave him on an island like that or if all the wolves were on DT/Sal D1.

For now I am tossing CW out.

Based on my analysis I am gpoing to

VOTE JACKAL

These two. He stayed on Jackal the whole time when CW could've been a viable lynch.

[Raiders Army]

I'm not sure why I'm defending him either.

[Autumn]

That does look pretty good, doesn't it. Huh. Well that makes me lean towards the RA/Juggler theory I guess.

[Autumn]

I've got to get the kids to bed. It's not looking like we're going to have an active night, so I guess I'm going to hope that you guys are right ( and RA is right, in some sense) and switch for now. If they go down fast enough I'll be back to think some more.

unvote lathum
vote raider's army

[Raiders Army]

That's funny and ironic. Anyhow, I can't switch my vote (in self-defense), but I can guarantee you all that we will lose the game if I'm lynched.

[EagleFan]

As of post 627:

Raiders Army 3 - thejuggler3 (604), Lathum (617), Autumn (627)
Autumn 2 - Danny (600), Raiders Army (610)

[Lathum]

So at this point DT has a meaningless vote.

[Raiders Army]

The only defense I have is why would I vote for MartinD and push him over CW yesterday prior to CW's reveal?

The bad thing is that MartinD was a villager as well, which doesn't help my case.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Lathum

So at this point DT has a meaningless vote.

Yes, and if I were a wolf at this point, I'd say good game villagers.

But as I am a vanilla villager, I will say good game wolves. You played well. Congrats on your win.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I have to ask myself why would Autumn not want to vote RA and instead look at me. Either he and RA are both wolves and he wants to push it my way, or RA is a wolf.

If Autumn is a wolf why not just vote RA and be done with it?

I am thinking maybe they are both wolves but don't want to tip their hands but RA is the more likely choice.

VOTE RA

Or he voted you initially because you're the other wolf and in the case he lynched, you look better.

[thejuggler3]

Spent a bit reading up. I'm not sure who the other wolf is. I'm still gold on my vote for RA (and I think we've got a wolf). If we're lucky, he's the cunning.

If RA is the cunning, then it's I'm torn betwen Autumn and Lathum. Autumn is a bit more likely due to Lathum's vote on Jackal, but I'll have to re-read all their posts this weekend.

If RA's not the cunning, that brings myself and Danny into the mix. I'v been suspicious of Danny on and off the whole game. He's always been my #3 or so suspcious person, and I'm going to kick myself if he turns out to be a wolf (given my #1 choices have been a pile of you know what.)

[Autumn]

Whereas if RA's a wolf I think we look straight to Juggler. No way that Danny votes me if RA and he are in cahoots. However, I'm not sure how to determine between Juggler and Lathum. I guess if Lathum's voting record looks as good as RA suggests, then we vote Juggler. If Lathum offed Jackal like that as a wolf, more power to him.

[Lathum]

I would have no reason at that point in the game to vote Jackal, if I am going to throw a fellow wolf under the bus it would be with a late deciding vote.

[Autumn]

I'll take a couple minutes and read back now. Kids are asleep and I should be working but I feel lame not having a vote history down at this point.

[Autumn]

I have to agree, Lathum, that's a stretch to imagine you pushing Jackal that early in the day. There was a vote on Raider's Army, but if you two were the wolves that shouldn't have spooked you so much that you'd push the brutal with so many other candidates out there. Though I have seen in the past you pull some amazing wolf moves.

I wish DT would get here and vote RA - I'm afraid that Juggler might be the other wolf and swap at the last second.

[Coffee Warlord]

....you better watch out....you better not cry....

ZOMBIE SANTA KNOWS ALL.

[Autumn]

That should be the sequel to this game. Zombie Santa.

[thejuggler3]

Zombie Santa! I left out some warm brains for ya!

[Autumn]

Apparently Raider's Army offed EagleFan. That's one method we didn't expect.

[Lathum]

Long write ups like this in an endgame scenario always make me nervous

[Autumn]

I hope we're not about to get paid back for the Christmas Miracle. It's the Christmas Massacre.

[Raiders Army]

As I said before. Good game wolves. Even if we had been able to get one of you today, the cunning would've been difficult.

Nicely played. I'm guessing Lathum and Juggler are the wolves.

[EagleFan]

Quite sorry, I got caught up in something and lost track of time. Processing now.

[DaddyTorgo]

Sorry guys - was in an offsite retreat for work all day and didn't even get online. Ended up stopping in to say hi to my parents when I got back to my car from being in the city, and before i knew it it was 10PM and I hadn't left there.

My bad.

[Autumn]

I hope you were getting laid, EF, because you were killing us here.

[EagleFan]

Time draws near again. You have two suspects in mind. It must be Raiders Army or Autumn... both?

You finally decide on Raiders Army in a close vote (again depriving the Christmas spirit of his tie breaker).

You find him and he just sits there and seems to have accepted his fate. "Silly fools" are his final words. Soon he is just a memory and you search him and find that he has an Al Davis fan club membership.

"See, a wolf, we got one!!!!!"

No, sadly it is just a misguided elf. Raiders Army was a vanilla villager.

Then Autumn leaps towards DaddyTorgo and before anyone can react DaddyTorgo is down and no longer moving.

DaddyTorgo was Jack Skellington, but you all knew that.

Autumn and Lathum stare eye to eye, then thejuggler3 steps forward to stand next to Autumn. The two begin to laugh. They look at each other and utter one final word before launching themselves at Danny and Lathum... "fools..."


Game Over!!!

Wolves Win!!!

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I hope you were getting laid, EF, because you were killing us here.

Could be...