Survivor: New Howard Tribal Thread (Tribal Council Due 10 PM Sunday)

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I'm probably doing what I always do in these games: overanalyze everything.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by path12

A. Greater Werewolvia: 33 points,
B. Middle Werewolvia: 14 points,
C. Lesser Werewolvia: 20 points, $3
D. Fleabit Cove: 11 points, $2
E. Dogbonia: 10 points,
F. Dog Ear: 12 points,
G. Homidia: 15 points, $3
H. Lupinia: 16 points, $3
I. Garouvia: 25 points, $3
J. North Canis: 17 points, $3
K. Lake Wolfsbane: 18 points, $3
L. South Canis: 29 points, $3
M. Lower Fang: 23 points, $3
N. Upper Fang: 21 points, $3
O. Alpovia: 13 points,


But I think this at least gives us some data for discussion.

the above is at least one attempt to put out there a possibility.

[ntndeacon]

by the way those are monetary numbers not paths.

[path12]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

the above is at least one attempt to put out there a possibility.

I would quibble and try to grab the two fang props with $4 and leave out the $2 bid........but I think that is not an unreasonable strategy overall. I certainly like that idea better than a bunch of $2 bids.

My personal leaning right now is more along the line of 5-6 on 6 props, but that probably could be riskier. There is also a certain lure to the big bids on the top two or three just because it's so obvious that it. just. might. work!!!

[ntndeacon]

how about tossing an extra buck on say Lower fang and then keep a buck on Middle Werewolvia then as a comprimise?

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by path12

My personal leaning right now is more along the line of 5-6 on 6 props, but that probably could be riskier. There is also a certain lure to the big bids on the top two or three just because it's so obvious that it. just. might. work!!!

What are the six properties you would go after?

[path12]

Ntn, you seem more sure that this is the way to go than some of the other strategies that have been tossed around. I'm just curious as to why?

My fear about this strategy is that bottom feeding may be one of the more popular ways to go among some of the other tribes.

[ntndeacon]

Hey Iam gonna step out for a while and go feed myself. I will be back prob during Survivor.

[Marathoner]

Originally Posted by path12

I would quibble and try to grab the two fang props with $4 and leave out the $2 bid........but I think that is not an unreasonable strategy overall. I certainly like that idea better than a bunch of $2 bids.

My personal leaning right now is more along the line of 5-6 on 6 props, but that probably could be riskier. There is also a certain lure to the big bids on the top two or three just because it's so obvious that it. just. might. work!!!

Interesting thought, maybe also drop out a $3 bet on one of the middle value properties and increase the bid on a higher value one.

[ntndeacon]

Basically, path. I feel that I feel that several of the groups are going to go after the big categories as a kinda reverse psychology game. some may be willing to lose 15 bucks to have a token bid on everything and use the rest on big items. but the more they spend on individual items the less they have on others.
Certainly it could be a losing strategy. but I think there is going to be a fair amount of ties on big values

[ntndeacon]

be back about 7ish

[path12]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

What are the six properties you would go after?

Oh-oh. Now I've done it. It's far easier to talk in the abstract, isn't it?

Hmmmmm. OK. To flesh out that idea, I would probably lean towards this in point level order:

M. Lower Fang - 23 - $6
N. Upper Fang - 21 - $5
H. Lupinia - 16 - $5
G. Homidia - 15 - $5
B. Middle Werewolvia - 14 - $4
O. Alpovia - 13 - $4

That's 102 points in play for our 29 bucks. If we get four we're in pretty good shape.

[path12]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Basically, path. I feel that I feel that several of the groups are going to go after the big categories as a kinda reverse psychology game. some may be willing to lose 15 bucks to have a token bid on everything and use the rest on big items. but the more they spend on individual items the less they have on others.
Certainly it could be a losing strategy. but I think there is going to be a fair amount of ties on big values

I think that's a valid viewpoint. I want to ponder that a bit.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by path12

Oh-oh. Now I've done it. It's far easier to talk in the abstract, isn't it?

Hmmmmm. OK. To flesh out that idea, I would probably lean towards this in point level order:

M. Lower Fang - 23 - $6
N. Upper Fang - 21 - $5
H. Lupinia - 16 - $5
G. Homidia - 15 - $5
B. Middle Werewolvia - 14 - $4
O. Alpovia - 13 - $4

That's 102 points in play for our 29 bucks. If we get four we're in pretty good shape.

That's not a bad selection. Safe and in the middle. If the other tribes go all out either way (going after a select few or spreading themselves across all), this would work out for us.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Jonathan Ezarik

That's not a bad selection. Safe and in the middle. If the other tribes go all out either way (going after a select few or spreading themselves across all), this would work out for us.

Thinking about it I'd probably tweak it a bit by making the bottom two $3 bids and using those two dollars on each of the top two.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I'm going to be leaving soon and I hope to be back before the deadline, but there's a chance I won't be. I really have no strong feelings for this challenge, so whatever you guys decide to go with is fine by me.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by path12

Thinking about it I'd probably tweak it a bit by making the bottom two $3 bids and using those two dollars on each of the top two.

That makes sense. I don't see anyone bidding more than $3 for Middle Werewolvia and Alpovia.

[path12]

So you'd be fine with either a spread out strategy or a more focused middle strategy? What's your feeling on the big splurge?

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I favor a middle focused strategy over a spread out one. I'm not sure what I think of a big splurge. It's risky, but it might work. But if everyone is not behind it, I think we should go in the middle.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

And now I'm out. Good luck guys if I don't make it back in time.

[path12]

I'll be heading out in a few also, but should be back by 9:30 Eastern or so.

[Marathoner]

Works been damn busy tonight, hopefully will be back on about 9:30 for my 2 cents.

[ntndeacon]

snDvls seemed to let this slip.

Barkeep - Helsing's bids are
$5 for Lesser Werewolvia
$5 for Fleabit Cove
$2 for Dogbonia
$2 for Dog Ear
$2 for Garouvia
$1 for North Canis
$1 for Lake Wolfsbane
$10 for South Canis
$1 for Alpovia

if you have any questions I'll be back later being that I'm on the west coast or one of my teammates can help you out.

[ntndeacon]

do y'all think that was a mistake or a canny attempt to scare people off the South Canis?

[Marathoner]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

do y'all think that was a mistake or a canny attempt to scare people off the South Canis?

My thought it was a deliberate move. But it would be easy to overthink this.

[path12]

I am going to have to go to dinner very soon and will probably be back but close to deadline.. You guys know my thinking and preference, but the important thing is to have a strategy that all of us agree with. If you decide to do a spread out that's cool, but I'd certainly keep $3 minimums in mind. I guess we're going to have to finalize this in the next 45 minutes.

[path12]

looks like Helsing was along the lines we had thought. We would kick ass against those bids.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by path12

Oh-oh. Now I've done it. It's far easier to talk in the abstract, isn't it?

Hmmmmm. OK. To flesh out that idea, I would probably lean towards this in point level order:

M. Lower Fang - 23 - $6
N. Upper Fang - 21 - $5
H. Lupinia - 16 - $5
G. Homidia - 15 - $5
B. Middle Werewolvia - 14 - $4
O. Alpovia - 13 - $4

That's 102 points in play for our 29 bucks. If we get four we're in pretty good shape.

how about if we slice 1 off of H, B, and O to make a play at either $3 on I Garouvia (23 pts) or on C Lower Werewolvia (20 pts)

I would prefer I but am flexible

[ntndeacon]

sorry I did not see their 5 buck bid on Lesser WW

[ntndeacon]

what do you think path?

[path12]

I'm OK with that.

[path12]

Just checking Garouvia and the rest of the list real quick.

[ntndeacon]

do you want me to put it in or should we wait for Marathoner?
(I think JE wasnt gonna be back in time)

[ntndeacon]

my bad Garouvia is 25 pts

[path12]

I don't have a problem with the idea of dropping Middle and Alpovia to $3 at all. I think I'd rather drop G down from $5 to $4 since it is one less point than Lupinia. I'm not sure that $3 is going to get us a 20 point area but I'm willing to take the risk if you are.

[path12]

Barkeep, I know I can find this in thread somewhere but since you're here -- is it just last place that tribals in this challenge? Or is there no council involved? I get confused, sorry.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I'm back.

[path12]

Or just as an alternative to Garouvia, there's Lk Wolfbane with 18.

[path12]

Marathoner and JE, what do you think of ntn's proposal?

[ntndeacon]

sure path we can drop G down instead.

I do think it is a worthwhile risk. will it be successful? dunno, but it is a gamble that could win it for us.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by path12

Barkeep, I know I can find this in thread somewhere but since you're here -- is it just last place that tribals in this challenge? Or is there no council involved? I get confused, sorry.

Last place tribe goes to tribal council. First place gets goodies. Middle two neither go to tribal nor get goodies.

[ntndeacon]

those extra 7 are very tempting though
and Ithink there may be a thought by folks that they wont beable to aford too many of the higher properties.

[path12]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

sure path we can drop G down instead.

I do think it is a worthwhile risk. will it be successful? dunno, but it is a gamble that could win it for us.

I agree. We're mostly playing the safe middle, I think we have room for a bit more risk in the initial layout.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by path12

Marathoner and JE, what do you think of ntn's proposal?

What is it?

[path12]

OK, to recap the revised proposal:

M. Lower Fang - 23 - $6
N. Upper Fang - 21 - $5
H. Lupinia - 16 - $5
G. Homidia - 15 - $4
B. Middle Werewolvia - 14 - $3
O. Alpovia - 13 - $3
I. Garouvia - 25 - $3

That's $29 and 127 points in play.

[ntndeacon]

M. Lower Fang - 23 - $6
N. Upper Fang - 21 - $5
H. Lupinia - 16 - $5
G. Homidia - 15 - $4
B. Middle Werewolvia - 14 - $3
O. Alpovia - 13 - $3
I. Garouvia -25-$3

[Marathoner]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

do you want me to put it in or should we wait for Marathoner?
(I think JE wasnt gonna be back in time)

I'm good with that

[ntndeacon]

Jon? how bout you?

[Jonathan Ezarik]

I don't like it. At all.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Just kidding.

Looks good to me.