The Biden Presidency - 2020

[QuikSand]

I guess I'm too much of an insider, but I feel the extended primary process has advantages in vetting over anything we could expect with, let's face it, what would be a television primary (all at once).

I think it's good that candidates scurry to fly into Detroit or Charleston or wherever to scramble for the next contest... and that they face the varied crap that inevitably comes with it. The ethanol questions in Iowa, the Car Company stuff in Michigan, the water crisis stuff in the western states... whatever. I fear we'd lose 100% of that if it were just a six week free for all nationwide. We'd get nothing but blowdried TV bits, etc.

[GrantDawg]

I agree with QS. The extended process is necessary for vetting. Not to mention, it is the only chance for some smaller states to have some kind of voice in the choice.

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[Brian Swartz]

We manage to vet other candidates just fine without that. And what ends up happening is far worse - places like Iowa and New Hampshire have grossly disproportionate influence, while many states come too late in the process to ever have a meaningful say unless the earlier states basically couldn't decide.

[GrantDawg]

Biden actually recommended South Carolina as the first. I hqve to think the Michigwn early leak was the party. Biden suggesting South Carolina early is the biggest sign he is running again.

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[henry296]

It seems like there is almost a full year between people declaring their intent to run and the primaries that it provides plenty of time for vetting.

[GrantDawg]

It doesn't, and we have all seen it play out in real time. There can be 10-15 candidates. It takes time for people to even know who they are, and for them to be really put to the test. The winnowing opens the opportunity for relatively unknowns to become contenders. Having it all at the same time basically guarantees name recognition rules. We would likely never had a President Obama or Clinton by those rules.

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[Edward64]

Primaries last from Feb to Jul. Joe won by early Jun so let's say 4-6 months.

IMO, the duration is too long.

[GrantDawg]

Last cycle was delayed because of Covid. Obama's nomination lasted to the final primaries in June, which is the normal time frame. I don't think they will go past June in this cycle either.

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[Edward64]

Good call Joe.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/sena...-to-biden.html

The Senate passed legislation that would force a tentative rail labor agreement and thwart a national strike.

A separate vote on adding seven days of paid sick leave to the agreement failed.

The legislation, which was approved by the House on Wednesday, enacts new contracts providing railroad workers with 24% pay increases over five years from 2020 through 2024, immediate payouts averaging $11,000 upon ratification and an extra paid day off.

The House on Wednesday approved a separate measure that would have added seven days of paid sick leave to the contract instead of just one. That measure was defeated in the Senate vote. Paid sick leave has been the main point of disagreement during negotiations between railroads and the unions.

[JPhillips]

I really wish the press would define a 52-43 vote in a way that makes it clear it was filibustered.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Good call Joe.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/sena...-to-biden.html

Good call how?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Good call how?

Per the article

The approved bill, passed by a vote of 80 to 15, now goes to President Joe Biden, who had urged Congress to act quickly before this month’s strike deadline and “send a bill to my desk for my signature immediately.” The measures come after talks had stalled between the railroads and four unions, which had previously rejected the agreement.

Biden has said he was reluctant to override the vote against the contract by some unions but stressed that a rail shutdown would “devastate” the economy. Labor groups have said that enforcing an agreement with the legislation denies them the right to strike.

[Edward64]

The WH dinner for Macron is one where I would drop by a McD or BK on my way home (okay, maybe even a nice steak house) to satisfy my hunger.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'm sure this would be entertaining for X weeks before he flames out. But I'll buy his Ye 24 t-shirt as a souvenir (and hang it beside my twice-worn Yang 2020 t-shirt ... btw I guess universal basic income is dead?)

Kanye West says he asked Trump to be his 2024 running mate | The Hill

I look forward to Ye being on the Sunday morning shows to explain his positions.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The WH dinner for Macron is one where I would drop by a McD or BK on my way home (okay, maybe even a nice steak house) to satisfy my hunger.

Presumably that picture is only one of several courses.

[albionmoonlight]

Stronger than expected job and wage growth. Which, because a Democrat is President, is apparently a bad thing.

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/stat...70960760078336

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I really wish the press would define a 52-43 vote in a way that makes it clear it was filibustered.

Also, the bs politics that let the dems split up the extra sick leave into a separate bill to campaign on it but not actually vote for it. Then again, in a just world, the GOP would be punished for voting almost universally against any sort of workers rights but, as above, nope, they're "just good at business" or some happy horse crap that people choose to believe.

Like the Dems don't get to do this performative bullcrap /and/ get punished for it if the GOP voters actually held their representatives accountable. So much of the "I'm so mad at the Dems for this so I'm going to vote GOP going forward", never mind that the GOP are the ones actively screwing people over whereas at least the Dems kindof try every once in a while to help.

SI

[Edward64]

Saw Biden signing the bill on CNBC. His speech was good, nice and measured.

But he is looking pretty old.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Presumably that picture is only one of several courses.

There may have been starters & desert, but think that was the main course.

Butter-poached Maine lobster and calotte of beef, shallot marmalade, are seen at the White House during a media preview of the state dinner for French President Emmanuel Macron.

[PilotMan]

Florida mulls U-turn on move to strip Disney theme-parks of self-governing status - FT | Reuters

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Florida mulls U-turn on move to strip Disney theme-parks of self-governing status - FT | Reuters

The classic American political tale.

Politicians make huge public spectacle and gets tons and tons of attention.

Then time passes, public attention moves on. An intervening election or two happens.

Then, quietly, the pro-corporate backroom deal is made that is nothing like the big blustery populist stance that the politicians originally took.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

There may have been starters & desert, but think that was the main course.

I'll take your lobster.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The classic American political tale.

Politicians make huge public spectacle and gets tons and tons of attention.

Then time passes, public attention moves on. An intervening election or two happens.

Then, quietly, the pro-corporate backroom deal is made that is nothing like the big blustery populist stance that the politicians originally took.

It is just really no surprise. I didn't think there was anyone that was actually going to take affect.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

It is just really no surprise. I didn't think there was anyone that was actually going to take affect.

There will be people in the DeSantis 2024 campaign talking about how he stood up to Disney

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I'll take your lobster.

Something tells me one lobster tail won’t be enough for you (nor me).

And it’ll be poor taste to ask for seconds (or thirds)

[Edward64]

Good riddance. Wonder if he worked enough quarters and if he forfeits his social security.

Arguably, it may have turned out better if he stayed and fought it out. But I do admire his conviction to leave the US and make a new life for himself. He's apparently married and has a kid.

https://apnews.com/article/putin-eur...9b5d04f57d553b

Former U.S. intelligence contractor Edward Snowden, who fled prosecution after revealing highly classified surveillance programs, has received a Russian passport and taken the citizenship oath, Russian news agencies quoted his lawyer as saying Friday.

Lawyer Anatoly Kucherena was reported as saying that Snowden got the passport and took the oath on Thursday, about three months after Russian President Vladimir Putin granted him citizenship.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Things seem to be heating up in Haiti. There are similar articles in MiamiHerald and others but they have paywall. So something is going to happen but don't know the specifics, so take below FWIW

Haiti - Politic : The USA ready to participate in a multinational rapid action force - HaitiLibre.com : Haiti news 7/7

The below popped up and reminded me about the hell hole that is Haiti. No, doesn't look like US/UN has done much since early Oct.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-63707429

The second highlighted paragraph seems weird to me. I don't understand why it would not be under the UN charter. Probably good reason but don't know the rationale.

Found the answer in the article.

There's talk at the United Nations about the need for a non-UN armed force, but no-one seems in a hurry to lead it, or even to take part.

Foreign interventions have a bad name, and a bad history here. The last UN mission is remembered for allegations of sexual abuse, and for bringing cholera to Haiti, via UN peacekeepers from Nepal. The epidemic killed around 10,000 people.

There are mixed views here on the idea of foreign boots on the ground. There's support from some in business - who have used armed groups but now want them reined in - and from those trapped in gang-controlled areas. There's opposition from civil society leaders who say Haiti needs to go it alone.

[stevew]

No idea where it goes but REALID pushed back another 2 years, lol

[Ksyrup]

We've had ours for a couple years but just saw a commercial for it about having to be ready next year. I guess that marketing campaign was worth the cost...

[albionmoonlight]

We're gonna have to renew our REAL IDs before we end up formally needing them.

[Edward64]

Checked for the black/gold star and my license had it. Had to renew it in 2020 and guess it was just automatically done

Read it was because of delay in all States accepting it, pandemic, and concerns about impact to illegal aliens

REAL ID enforcement is delayed again to 2025 : NPR

[Lathum]

Brittany Griner headed home in a prisoner exchange. Huge win for the Biden admin. Those on the right will obviously be critical of it but this is a nice win for him with the progressive side.

[Flasch186]

They’ll feel that way Because Russia > USA


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[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Brittany Griner headed home in a prisoner exchange. Huge win for the Biden admin. Those on the right will obviously be critical of it but this is a nice win for him with the progressive side.

A basketball player for an arms dealer, I guess they have equal value in American society.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

An American citizen for an arms dealer, I guess they have equal value in American society.

fixed that for you

[henry296]

Were other American citizens also released from Russian custoday in exchange for Russian Arms Dealers? While not publicized, I'm sure Griner isn't the only American being held in Russian jail.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by henry296

Were other American citizens also released from Russian custoday in exchange for Russian Arms Dealers? While not publicized, I'm sure Griner isn't the only American being held in Russian jail.

No mention of others. Paul Whelan has been imprisoned for 3+ years. He's accused of espionage which is more serious vs recreational drugs.

It comes down to how much damage the Russian guy can do now. He's been out of the game for a while, will he resume his activities which (presumably) hurt US interests?

Biden is in a tough spot. Bringing Gringer out without bringing out Whelan (or others) doesn't sit well with me e.g. the LIFO model. But she did get disproportionate sentencing because of Biden's support of Ukraine so there's some justice there.

[Swaggs]

I've struggled with the Griner situation, too. Glad to see others have mixed feelings about it.

On the one hand, it is horrible that she was detained, it was a questionable violation (vape cartridges with cannabis) and it was probably largely due to her celebrity. On the other hand, it is an exceptionally entitled and dumb move to think you can go through airports or customs with anything cannabis related. And it absolutely seems terrible that her celebrity/wealth put her in the front of the line, when there are other folks being detained.

I'm pro-Biden, but I don't feel like making this trade is a win for his administration - I think there is a lot of messiness to the situation and I don't feel great the person exchanged has caused harm to others and will now be free. It will probably get him some positive PR, but some deserved criticism, too. I do think the optics will play out to be beneficial to him, though.

[albionmoonlight]

I think that it is telling that nothing happened until the mid-terms were fully over (and then as long as possible before 2024).

The admin clearly sees some political liability with this move.

My guess is that they thought it was the right--but unpopular--thing to do.

[cuervo72]

But seriously though, after this we're all clear on DON'T FUCKING GO TO RUSSIA, right?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I think that it is telling that nothing happened until the mid-terms were fully over (and then as long as possible before 2024).

The admin clearly sees some political liability with this move.

My guess is that they thought it was the right--but unpopular--thing to do.

Isn't it just as likely that Putin did not want to give Biden a win?

I really don't know how it would have played out if this happened before the mid-terms though.

Some postings in the Ukrainian reddit board is generally negative as they believe Bout could resume his arms dealer activities and ultimately hurt Ukrainians. I can see this happening.

[Edward64]

Article didn't go into how the pensions got into trouble. I'd like a bailout of my 401k & IRA right now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/08/pres...n-workers.html

President Joe Biden on Thursday is announcing the infusion of nearly $36 billion to shore up a financially troubled union pension plan, preventing severe cuts to the retirement incomes of more than 350,000 Teamster workers and retirees across the United States.

The money for the Central States Pension Fund is the largest amount of federal aid provided for a pension plan, the Biden administration said, and comes from the American Rescue Plan, a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package that he signed into law in 2021.

Many union retirement plans have been under financial pressure because of underfunding and other issues. Without the federal assistance, Teamster members could have seen their benefits reduced by an average of 60% starting within a couple of years.

[albionmoonlight]

Pension underfunding is a big problem.

The law allows companies to use *way* too rosy growth projections when setting minimum funding amounts.

[sterlingice]

If I were the CIA, I'd put a GPS transmitter in a known arms dealer and be perfectly happy with this swap happening.

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Pension underfunding is a big problem.

The law allows companies to use *way* too rosy growth projections when setting minimum funding amounts.

The gist I'm getting from below article is that it was primarily mismanagement by the pension fund (and not the individual companies) over a long period of time (talked about bad bets going into the 2007-2008 GR).

Understanding The Central States Pension Plan's Tale Of Woe

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Article didn't go into how the pensions got into trouble. I'd like a bailout of my 401k & IRA right now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/08/pres...n-workers.html

It's nice of Joe to be buying votes when Social Security is going to be insolvent for the rest of us in a mere decade or so.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

It's nice of Joe to be buying votes when Social Security is going to be insolvent for the rest of us in a mere decade or so.

I'm sure it did buy him votes. And if the Teamster's support did win him the Presidency, the $36B is a small price to pay (but he should probably give more to SC as that state really revived his campaign)

And unlike the $400-$500B bailout of student loans, the union members weren't at fault themselves and assume the benefits will be applied fairly/spread out across their membership vs just a select minority.

... I'll also bet the politicians will do something to save SS as we get closer to the insolvency date.

[Edward64]

Congrats Chuck. I think you did a solid job supporting Biden and keeping the majority.

Here's hoping your Senate get a shot at replacing a SCOTUS.

Sen. Chuck Schumer was unanimously elected Thursday for another term as Senate Democratic leader, helming a bolstered 51-seat majority for a new era of divided government in Congress.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Edward64

... I'll also bet the politicians will do something to save SS as we get closer to the insolvency date.

It's not an unsolvable problem. People are living longer and having fewer kids.

The smart thing to do would be to raise the earning limit (caps around $140K and then no further earnings are withheld to go into the program) now, but it would be unpopular and whoever passes it will get (rightfully) accused of raising taxes. Bumping it up significantly (not going to affect people making less than ~$140K) to something like $250K and continuing to raise the age over time would set the date of insolvency back.

It would be nice to do it now, rather than later, but the old and wealthy largely do the voting, make the laws, already receive the current benefits and won't be around to see the benefit if they do it now, so it will probably be an issue up until things get tighter. The people in charge now are certainly not "the Greatest Generation."

[Edward64]

I think the options now for an (approx) 2035'ish insolvency are:

1. Remove the cap
2. Increase the tax rate
3. Reduce benefits
4. Increase retirement age

For longer term, I'd toss in

1. Have more population

With Biden's promise of not raising taxes, I'm thinking it'll get punted to the next admin.