Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424) - Page 14

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

I'll be out in about 10 minutes and likely not back before lynch -- the gf signed us up for some kind of get out the vote volunteer thing. I'm fine with where I'm at anyway -- I think we get the most information out of either Alan or Lathum right now.

Well someone is going to have to get the guts to break the tie to get any information from anyone. Even if it means voting for me, as the way things are we dont learn anything.

I already told you what you will learn if you lynch me tonight, so if you want to pursue that go for it. I'll be good, and everyone will be going after Cronin tommorrow.

I honestly don't know what going after BrianD tonight tells us.. we went over that discussion earlier today and for the life of me I don't know why people are choosing him other than just to have a 3rd candidate. I think Fouts, Lathum, Cronin all make better 3rd candidates today.. I dont have a problem with people voting for him, but i need more than a placeholder or a third option (since we have 4).

I think the people who have argued the case against Cronin, myself and Lathum all have laid out semi-believable arguements one way or another. Even if I dont agree with it, at least they put effort into it that can be looked at and analyzed later.

So this is mainly to Fouts and Mr.Wednesday who just threw votes away at BrianD, if you are going to do so at least give a reason why for people to agree with and join you on or to disagree with. Also gives him the ability to defend himself.

I personally still think lynching Cronin is the best idea, but I have spent most of the day explaining why. If you disagree with it, then at least give the reason why you are voting someone else (This also goes for those who just jumped on votes because.. well they wanted to)

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

This is where I stand with a little over a page to catch up on. Up to this opint I have been thinking I was going to vote Alan. If the choice is Alan or Cronin. I didn't see the Cronin connection so much as others, so I was sharing his frustration with receiving heat. Then I just got to the self vote. That throws me into a quandry.

Early votes are brutal, as there is so little to go on. I know I'm much more comfortable evaluating a person's posts in light of their voting history after a few days. I know the conventional wisdom is that the wolves benefit if there is no lynch...I just have a problem with that in the early going. We don't have any history voting, in game actions, or really even post history to hold against someone. If someone strongly represents wolf, at least in my estimation, then I'll vote for them early and often. I'm just not comfortable voting with no guidance early in the game.

Just a note: A long damn time has passed since I typed this post, but I'm hitting submit anyway.

Well thats the thing. Only a small handful of people know anything for sure in the early parts of the game, and those people are most likely going to not come out and say it in order to try to build more information.

So usually the first few days you dont have a ton to go on but we still have to vote. We still need the record of who you went with, who you believed and who you didnt believe.

If you vote me and I end up getting lynched, will it look bad for you? Of course it will, but then its up to everyone else to determine if you were just a misguided villager that fell for other people's stories, or if you were one of the people who jumped into a close vote to try to edge it one way or another.

Can an innocent villager's actions wrongly condemn them? Sure they can, but sometimes thats all we have, and a little wheat has to be burnt for the sake of the entire crop.

Lathum · 10-26-2006, 07:29 PM

hoops, I voted for you day one as a place holder. I already stated that I would rather cast the early vote then not vote at all.

As for my stance on Alan, I have seen him play a similar game as a wolf. That being said I am sticking with my cronin vote because of my own reasoning, not because of anything Alan said. If cronin turns up good then I made a mistake that alot of people make early in werewolf games.

Lathum · 10-26-2006, 07:29 PM

hoops, I voted for you day one as a place holder. I already stated that I would rather cast the early vote then not vote at all.

As for my stance on Alan, I have seen him play a similar game as a wolf. That being said I am sticking with my cronin vote because of my own reasoning, not because of anything Alan said. If cronin turns up good then I made a mistake that alot of people make early in werewolf games.

hoopsguy · 10-26-2006, 07:37 PM

Lathum, but it gave the strong appearance that you were displacing blame for your vote.

Your Day 1 vote was for me initially. You moved it when I pushed back and two other candidates emerged.

Day 2 emerges, you suggest that you own the Cronin vote (Alan is following you) but if that vote for the last two days - remember, you are claiming it rather than the 'placeholder' on me - is wrong it isn't you who is responsible. It is Alan T!

People make mistakes all the times in werewolf games with their votes. Clearly a portion of the 11 people yesterday (me included) did exactly that. But you certainly gave me the impression that you were setting up the dominos with your comments today for WHEN you make a mistake.

Glengoyne · 10-26-2006, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

...
Glengoyne and Chief Rum: votes so late on Bulletsponge that they are effectively throwaways.

I work. I had nothing to go on early yesterday. Same today.

I'm catching up, and making my mind up along the way. Yesterday, my vote was essentially throw away, but only because the decision was made hours before while I was away. I had actually made up my mind fairly early in the "thread history", when SnDvls laid out his reasoning for voting bullet.

Today as I'm reading along, it looks like voting late is going to put me in a tight spot, as it is a tight race with me as one of the deciding factors. Since this vote is going to count, I'm going to try and put some serious evaluation into it. My gut says to vote Alan, but my gut was dead wrong about Saldana in Tombstone, and there I felt I had little bits of evidence at least. I'll be back after catching up, and then following up.

Fouts · 10-26-2006, 07:42 PM

Alan, maybe I only alluded to my reason. I think it is imperative that the zombies find the PC. They are trying to determine, thru posts and votes, who it is. They chose KWhit. Why?

My reasoning is that he hit on something with the BrianD vote. It is possible that they read something into his posts, but I think it is likely he scared them.

It also gives the PC another option rather than 2 STARS candidates. What I don't want to see happen is when the PC goes down, his record being multiple STARS votes because he had no choice.

We will be lynching the people he voted for, so he has a responsibility to show us the way, even in death.

SnDvls · 10-26-2006, 07:44 PM

vote AlanT

I guess I'll be the tie breaker

I believe St. C more today and yesterday and his actions today tend to favor what I feel. Sorry Alan, but you seem to be playing the helpful wolf role again. You've been on most of today, but when the heat seemed to get pushed towards you tailed off. I guess this will also force some others too.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fouts

Alan, maybe I only alluded to my reason. I think it is imperative that the zombies find the PC. They are trying to determine, thru posts and votes, who it is. They chose KWhit. Why?

My reasoning is that he hit on something with the BrianD vote. It is possible that they read something into his posts, but I think it is likely he scared them.

It also gives the PC another option rather than 2 STARS candidates. What I don't want to see happen is when the PC goes down, his record being multiple STARS votes because he had no choice.

We will be lynching the people he voted for, so he has a responsibility to show us the way, even in death.

Just out of curiosity, you do know that you are giving a reason back to me that I originally came up with about BrianD?

We discussed it some and didn't put alot of credence to. So my question back to you is why do you put more credence to my theory then I do.. What in our discussion on him earlier did we miss or overlook in your opinion?

Fouts · 10-26-2006, 07:46 PM

Just to add, I am not saying that st.cronin and Alan are STARS. I have no knowledge of their faction. Their posts make me believe they are STARS, even if they are reaching with their theories.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SnDvls

vote AlanT

I guess I'll be the tie breaker

I believe St. C more today and yesterday and his actions today tend to favor what I feel. Sorry Alan, but you seem to be playing the helpful wolf role again. You've been on most of today, but when the heat seemed to get pushed towards you tailed off. I guess this will also force some others too.

What heat did I tail off on? Other than the hour I left to drive home from work, I've been here the entire time. Are you just making that up?

I have taken the heat all day and responded with my opinions. Its posts like this that will stand out after I am lynched and I want everyone to remember it.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:49 PM

I mean seriously, if anyone has any question meant for me that i have missed today, please re-ask it because I missed it.

Unlike Cronin yesterday who disappeared every time I asked him a question about his stance or did not respond to what I felt was faulty logic, I instead have responded and in some cases over-responded to every single question asked.

You all can accuse me of many things, being naive, having a horrible theory, being way too pushy, or whatever... but not responding to heat? Please

Fouts · 10-26-2006, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Just out of curiosity, you do know that you are giving a reason back to me that I originally came up with about BrianD?

We discussed it some and didn't put alot of credence to. So my question back to you is why do you put more credence to my theory then I do.. What in our discussion on him earlier did we miss or overlook in your opinion?

Sorry, I didn't remember who came up with the theory. While reading 4 pages of stuff, it was exactly what I was thinking when I saw who they killed. I kept thinking, why KWhit?

It's the only evidence I have right now. KWhit is dead for a reason. I'm trying to figure it out.

Fouts · 10-26-2006, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I mean seriously, if anyone has any question meant for me that i have missed today, please re-ask it because I missed it.

Unlike Cronin yesterday who disappeared every time I asked him a question about his stance or did not respond to what I felt was faulty logic, I instead have responded and in some cases over-responded to every single question asked.

You all can accuse me of many things, being naive, having a horrible theory, being way too pushy, or whatever... but not responding to heat? Please

I think you should acknowledge the huge hole in your 99.9% theory that st.cronin or fouts must be bad.

Tyrith · 10-26-2006, 07:52 PM

We have over 3 hours to lynch, so don't accuse me of making a tie. But I hate the Alan vote. My mind tells me cronin is probably a good guy. My gut is telling me that we should let Alan keep talking a while longer and see what people do to him. Lathum, however, is a different story. He tangled with Alan this morning and is doing his wonderful spectacular job at dodging any real blame. And to be honest, I'm kind of scared of him.

My problem with SnDvls reasoning is that Alan could be the helpful wolf or the helpful villager and it might look the same. Alan, you are far from my trust list, so don't think that I'm letting you get away, but I think we can learn more from you before it comes time to deal with you, one way or another.

UNVOTE ALAN
VOTE LATHUM

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fouts

I think you should acknowledge the huge hole in your 99.9% theory that st.cronin or fouts must be bad.

I already addressed that this morning. Even without the PC in the pixture, the odds of me being STARS, and choosing 3 people out of 18 and they -all- be stars is pretty minimal.

Then factor in the PC, and the actions we saw yesterday and I think what I calculated while at work, the chance of you all both being Stars is under 7%.

So that might not be 99.9%, but its such a huge advantage, that I will stick with it. If its my death via lynch, then so be it, but its better than any odds any of you all have provided me today as an option. And I have been listening and discussing options as they have come up (such as Brian D and Lathum)

Tyrith · 10-26-2006, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I already addressed that this morning. Even without the PC in the pixture, the odds of me being STARS, and choosing 3 people out of 18 and they -all- be stars is pretty minimal.

Then factor in the PC, and the actions we saw yesterday and I think what I calculated while at work, the chance of you all both being Stars is under 7%.

So that might not be 99.9%, but its such a huge advantage, that I will stick with it. If its my death via lynch, then so be it, but its better than any odds any of you all have provided me today as an option. And I have been listening and discussing options as they have come up (such as Brian D and Lathum)

I think tomorrow we should be moving away from the strict mathematical theories and on to some more predictable things. Just because the odds are slim doesn't mean it isn't the truth, especially when things like this aren't products of random choices -- the people on the bad side could be manipulating our odds, so to speak.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:58 PM

I like how Sndvls tosses out false accusations and then leaves immediately. As you can see my response was posted a minute after his.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

I think tomorrow we should be moving away from the strict mathematical theories and on to some more predictable things. Just because the odds are slim doesn't mean it isn't the truth, especially when things like this aren't products of random choices -- the people on the bad side could be manipulating our odds, so to speak.

Sure, give me a more predictable thing then. I'm open for ideas. Whats your more predictable idea that you would like to present for everyone to go for?

So far most of the ideas have been "Well he -feels- like a wolf" which is not very predictable.

Tyrith · 10-26-2006, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Sure, give me a more predictable thing then. I'm open for ideas. Whats your more predictable idea that you would like to present for everyone to go for?

So far most of the ideas have been "Well he -feels- like a wolf" which is not very predictable.

Yeah, but by tomorrow we ought to be able to take in the context of this game other than knowing what odds the RNG might consider. If on Day 4 you're still talking about mathematics alone driving our votes, yeah, that'll be nonsense. Considerations like that decay over time because the bad guys will be able to exert more and more influence over the choices.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Yeah, but by tomorrow we ought to be able to take in the context of this game other than knowing what odds the RNG might consider. If on Day 4 you're still talking about mathematics alone driving our votes, yeah, that'll be nonsense. Considerations like that decay over time because the bad guys will be able to exert more and more influence over the choices.

Thats my point. I am perfectly open for a more predictable option today, but everyone is all talk. People like bashing my ideas, but no one has presented one better.

Tyrith · 10-26-2006, 08:05 PM

Hence me saying "tomorrow". Stop bashing ME, dude.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Hence me saying "tomorrow". Stop bashing ME, dude.

I think you are being a bit sensitive.... I reread what I wrote, and didn't even direct anything at you. I'm open to discuss, but I think you're taking stuff a bit personally

Glengoyne · 10-26-2006, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

I would like to ask this question: Does anyone think that both cronin and AlanT are stars?

That is exactly what I'm worried about. Of course with the votes piling up on Alan after Cronin, that might identify that a bunch of people who know Cronin is on their team. I don't have enough to go on right now.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

That is exactly what I'm worried about. Of course with the votes piling up on Alan after Cronin, that might identify that a bunch of people who know Cronin is on their team. I don't have enough to go on right now.

well you wont see people rushing to my rescue, and I dont want the chief to. I can be sacrificed if it means you all go after the people who voted for me tommorrow.

But if I know this game, people will find some reason that oh well everyone must have been misguided about Alan tommorrow and let my death go to waste

Tyrith · 10-26-2006, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think you are being a bit sensitive.... I reread what I wrote, and didn't even direct anything at you. I'm open to discuss, but I think you're taking stuff a bit personally

Sorry. I've been soaking a few insults today, I don't appreciate it a lot, but I know you're cool

However, you have to admit that the mathematical approach has a weakness because the bad guys can influence in matters that are realistic to re-rolling the dice. Furthermore, cronin gave a mathematical reason for voting for you, too, hehe.

Tyrith · 10-26-2006, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

well you wont see people rushing to my rescue, and I dont want the chief to. I can be sacrificed if it means you all go after the people who voted for me tommorrow.

But if I know this game, people will find some reason that oh well everyone must have been misguided about Alan tommorrow and let my death go to waste

That's why we need to let you live another day or two, THEN kill you, muwhahahaha

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Sorry. I've been soaking a few insults today, I don't appreciate it a lot, but I know you're cool

However, you have to admit that the mathematical approach has a weakness because the bad guys can influence in matters that are realistic to re-rolling the dice. Furthermore, cronin gave a mathematical reason for voting for you, too, hehe.

the whole well first vote for bullet is mathematically stronger than the second vote thing? Thats not mathematical, its psychological. I already have said I wasnt the police chief before he came to that realization, meanwhile Cronin was trying to hint that he was the chief which I have flat out said he isn't either.

I still dont feel bad about the bullet vote. Even if Cronin is a bad guy, I would rather have gotten the information to make me feel stronger about it before lynching someone who could be valuable

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

That's why we need to let you live another day or two, THEN kill you, muwhahahaha

Well another mathematical fact for you... I have died on day 3 a higher percentage of games than any other day

hoopsguy · 10-26-2006, 08:14 PM

Votes as of Post #679:

(4) Cronin - AlanT (445), Lathum (452), Anxiety (538), BrianD (553)
(4) AlanT - Spleen (564), LSG (580), Cronin (586), SnDvls (658)
(3) Lathum - Path (642), Hoops (643), Tyrith (665)
(2) BrianD - Fouts (631), MrW (641)

No Votes: NTN, Glen, Chief Rum, Saldana

Tyrith · 10-26-2006, 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

the whole well first vote for bullet is mathematically stronger than the second vote thing? Thats not mathematical, its psychological. I already have said I wasnt the police chief before he came to that realization, meanwhile Cronin was trying to hint that he was the chief which I have flat out said he isn't either.

I still dont feel bad about the bullet vote. Even if Cronin is a bad guy, I would rather have gotten the information to make me feel stronger about it before lynching someone who could be valuable

Oh, no reason to feel bad about it, I was all for it, but the fact that you aren't the chief does mean that there are fewer good guy slots you could occupy compared to the full boat of bad guy slots. Another weak margin.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Oh, no reason to feel bad about it, I was all for it, but the fact that you aren't the chief does mean that there are fewer good guy slots you could occupy compared to the full boat of bad guy slots. Another weak margin.

Yes, but the same is said about Cronin... so I don't see how its relevant here though. Thats the point I am making.

I can see that arguement used in me vs someone who has the possibility of being the chief, but me vs cronin it does not apply in. Neither of us are the chief.

Tyrith · 10-26-2006, 08:17 PM

True. Sigh, these tiny mathematical margins will never get us anywhere in reality compared to the things people say, but at least math is consistent. Bleeeehhh.

hoopsguy · 10-26-2006, 08:17 PM

Alan, here is what I think is one of the interesting points for this game. If someone comes up as a non-STARS at the start of the game then the Chief will know every time they are lying. That presents a challenge for someone who is a high volume poster - chances are pretty good they are going to get smoked out early in the game if the Chief can wield any influence.

So, what is a person like that to do? Well, they could play their usual high-post style and demand people supply logic for their votes as he exits the game. Perfectly normal request, but by enforcing this logic he hopes to provide a better footprint for his teammates to attack going forward.

If that person was to come up with three random candidates, well the chances of all of them being STARS would not be 7%, would it? In fact, the chances of one of his teammates being one of the three "random" candidates would likely be pretty close to seven percent.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, here is what I think is one of the interesting points for this game. If someone comes up as a non-STARS at the start of the game then the Chief will know every time they are lying. That presents a challenge for someone who is a high volume poster - chances are pretty good they are going to get smoked out early in the game if the Chief can wield any influence.

So, what is a person like that to do? Well, they could play their usual high-post style and demand people supply logic for their votes as he exits the game. Perfectly normal request, but by enforcing this logic he hopes to provide a better footprint for his teammates to attack going forward.

If that person was to come up with three random candidates, well the chances of all of them being STARS would not be 7%, would it? In fact, the chances of one of his teammates being one of the three "random" candidates would likely be pretty close to seven percent.

I am not sure I quite follow you here. As a generic STARS with no role, the best benefit I can do is try to push people's buttons and get them to be logical with their thoughts rather than just hide behind the oh he feels bad lines. I can draw attention away from other STARS with bigger roles since my loss is of less importance.

Right now, there is me + 7 or 8 other stars out of 16 other people. When I did the math this morning and factored in the people who I either know cant be the PC or feel very strongly aren't the PC, I felt I had 93% odds between Fouts and St.Cronin we had at least 1 bad guy. Mix in the stuff Cronin has said that i called him out on yesterday and today, my feeling is a 99.9% chance that Cronin is bad. Do I know for sure? no so its not 100%.

st.cronin · 10-26-2006, 08:28 PM

hoopsguy, I certainly understand being suspicious of Lathum. I actually think he's more likely to be bad than Alan, but also more likely to be good. If that's possible.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

hoopsguy, I certainly understand being suspicious of Lathum. I actually think he's more likely to be bad than Alan, but also more likely to be good. If that's possible.

I've been reduced to nothingness?

I'm not quite sure what you mean by more likely to be bad or good... Im assuming you mean rolewise? more likely to have a role?

Tyrith · 10-26-2006, 08:31 PM

Alan is going to come into contact with anti-Alan and they will mutually annihilate, ruptering space time and erasing all knowledge of his existance from history.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Alan is going to come into contact with anti-Alan and they will mutually annihilate, ruptering space time and erasing all knowledge of his existance from history.

My ex-wife would like that

st.cronin · 10-26-2006, 08:34 PM

Alan your theory assumes behavior for the police chief, which is what I did yesterday (and almost got lynched for it). You do realize this, don't you?

hoopsguy · 10-26-2006, 08:34 PM

Alan, what part of the scenario I painted do you not understand? I can get you saying that the scenario does not apply to you, but do you not understand the challenge that a high-volume poster would face, as I described it?

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, what part of the scenario I painted do you not understand? I can get you saying that the scenario does not apply to you, but do you not understand the challenge that a high-volume poster would face, as I described it?

I dont see how it would apply to me since Im on the same side as the PC though.

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Alan your theory assumes behavior for the police chief, which is what I did yesterday (and almost got lynched for it). You do realize this, don't you?

my theory this morning assumes behavior. My mathematical percentage only assumes behavior based directed torwards me and things I know to be true.

st.cronin · 10-26-2006, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I've been reduced to nothingness?

I'm not quite sure what you mean by more likely to be bad or good... Im assuming you mean rolewise? more likely to have a role?

I don't really know how to explain what I mean. I think in terms of math, you're more likely to be umbrella or zombie. But his behavior has been a little sketchier.

If I had to guess I'd say that you're 50/40/10 (in terms of likely to be) stars, umbrella, zombie, whereas Lathum is 60/20/20.

hoopsguy · 10-26-2006, 08:38 PM

Cronin, why do you think Lathum is more likely to be good than Alan?

Both have cast early votes on Day 1 and Day 2 for villagers if we are both STARS. So what else acts as a differentiator between these two for your vote?

LoneStarGirl · 10-26-2006, 08:40 PM

Okay, so I think Alan's theorys are border line far out there, but I dont think that makes him a zombie... After reading this and realizing that AlanT has in fact answered every question we have thrown at him, I have concluded either he got a degree in BS or he is a STARS. With that being said, I dont like the votes for Cronin... That leaves Lathum. And between lathum and alant, alant has been far more helpful and amusing thus far.

[b]Unvote AlanT/B]

Vote Lathum

Alan T · 10-26-2006, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't really know how to explain what I mean. I think in terms of math, you're more likely to be umbrella or zombie. But his behavior has been a little sketchier.

If I had to guess I'd say that you're 50/40/10 (in terms of likely to be) stars, umbrella, zombie, whereas Lathum is 60/20/20.

Weird, the feeling i have to lathum is more likely 25/25/50 with most likely being zombie

I'm pretty sure that I am 100/0/0 but i will forgive you for not being exactly right. Since you only have me as 10% zombie, does that mean you're zombie and most likely dont think I'm on your team? (sorry I mainly kid here because at this point I don't know what direct attack will accomplish. I've said most of what I wanted to you)

LoneStarGirl · 10-26-2006, 08:41 PM

How silly...

Unvote AlanT

Vote Lathum

st.cronin · 10-26-2006, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, why do you think Lathum is more likely to be good than Alan?

Both have cast early votes on Day 1 and Day 2 for villagers if we are both STARS. So what else acts as a differentiator between these two for your vote?

Part of the difference is that I don't know what side you're on.

Glengoyne · 10-26-2006, 08:42 PM

Well S#!%.

I don't feel strongly any of the front runners.

I was leaning Cronin's way, and looking to vote Alan, but he really seems to be being up front, and it is apparently more natural to lynch him tomorrow.

Then Cronin self voted and unvoted. Plus there was a wave of votes against Alan which might signify people coming to Cronin's aid. The self vote, self unvote makes me feel like voting for him, because it seems manipulative and planned. Lynching Cronin to find that he is Stars, tells us little. If we lynch him and he comes up other than STARS, then that would give us something concrete to go on. That might be something I can get behind. There is an upside to voting Cronin, IF he comes up evil.

I'm not real happy with the Lathum or BrianD votes, other than the fact that they aren't Cronin. BrianD has been less active, so there is a bit of attraction to that, plus the thought that lynching him might turn into a Jackpot if the wolves targetted Kwhit because he was a threat.

That makes BrianD and Cronin the two best votes in my book.

vote BrianD would give us two ties. vote Cronin would give us a leader with three voters left to go.

Honestly the most suspicious person I've seen was snDvls. He waltzes in says that AlanT backed off when the heat was applied, while I haven't been here watching, I did note, while catching up, that damn every other post seems to be Alan's. My gut is now telling me to vote SnDvls.

I'd feel better about lynching him than anyone else at the forefront. I don't know enough to know if this is going to make me look bad as if I'm dodging a tie break. I do know that he seems to have pretty clearly misrepresented the facts, and that would make me comfortable even being the first vote for him, even if he is somehow lynched.

It is the vote I feel best making

Vote SnDvls

10-26-2006, 08:28 PM	#686
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	hoopsguy, I certainly understand being suspicious of Lathum. I actually think he's more likely to be bad than Alan, but also more likely to be good. If that's possible. __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

10-26-2006, 08:34 PM	#690
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	Alan your theory assumes behavior for the police chief, which is what I did yesterday (and almost got lynched for it). You do realize this, don't you? __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

10-26-2006, 07:29 PM	#653
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	hoops, I voted for you day one as a place holder. I already stated that I would rather cast the early vote then not vote at all. As for my stance on Alan, I have seen him play a similar game as a wolf. That being said I am sticking with my cronin vote because of my own reasoning, not because of anything Alan said. If cronin turns up good then I made a mistake that alot of people make early in werewolf games.

10-26-2006, 07:29 PM	#654
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	hoops, I voted for you day one as a place holder. I already stated that I would rather cast the early vote then not vote at all. As for my stance on Alan, I have seen him play a similar game as a wolf. That being said I am sticking with my cronin vote because of my own reasoning, not because of anything Alan said. If cronin turns up good then I made a mistake that alot of people make early in werewolf games.

10-26-2006, 07:37 PM	#655
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Lathum, but it gave the strong appearance that you were displacing blame for your vote. Your Day 1 vote was for me initially. You moved it when I pushed back and two other candidates emerged. Day 2 emerges, you suggest that you own the Cronin vote (Alan is following you) but if that vote for the last two days - remember, you are claiming it rather than the 'placeholder' on me - is wrong it isn't you who is responsible. It is Alan T! People make mistakes all the times in werewolf games with their votes. Clearly a portion of the 11 people yesterday (me included) did exactly that. But you certainly gave me the impression that you were setting up the dominos with your comments today for WHEN you make a mistake.

10-26-2006, 07:42 PM	#657
Fouts College Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: California	Alan, maybe I only alluded to my reason. I think it is imperative that the zombies find the PC. They are trying to determine, thru posts and votes, who it is. They chose KWhit. Why? My reasoning is that he hit on something with the BrianD vote. It is possible that they read something into his posts, but I think it is likely he scared them. It also gives the PC another option rather than 2 STARS candidates. What I don't want to see happen is when the PC goes down, his record being multiple STARS votes because he had no choice. We will be lynching the people he voted for, so he has a responsibility to show us the way, even in death.

10-26-2006, 07:44 PM	#658
SnDvls Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2001	vote AlanT I guess I'll be the tie breaker I believe St. C more today and yesterday and his actions today tend to favor what I feel. Sorry Alan, but you seem to be playing the helpful wolf role again. You've been on most of today, but when the heat seemed to get pushed towards you tailed off. I guess this will also force some others too.

10-26-2006, 07:46 PM	#660
Fouts College Starter Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: California	Just to add, I am not saying that st.cronin and Alan are STARS. I have no knowledge of their faction. Their posts make me believe they are STARS, even if they are reaching with their theories.

10-26-2006, 07:49 PM	#662
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	I mean seriously, if anyone has any question meant for me that i have missed today, please re-ask it because I missed it. Unlike Cronin yesterday who disappeared every time I asked him a question about his stance or did not respond to what I felt was faulty logic, I instead have responded and in some cases over-responded to every single question asked. You all can accuse me of many things, being naive, having a horrible theory, being way too pushy, or whatever... but not responding to heat? Please

10-26-2006, 07:52 PM	#665
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	We have over 3 hours to lynch, so don't accuse me of making a tie. But I hate the Alan vote. My mind tells me cronin is probably a good guy. My gut is telling me that we should let Alan keep talking a while longer and see what people do to him. Lathum, however, is a different story. He tangled with Alan this morning and is doing his wonderful spectacular job at dodging any real blame. And to be honest, I'm kind of scared of him. My problem with SnDvls reasoning is that Alan could be the helpful wolf or the helpful villager and it might look the same. Alan, you are far from my trust list, so don't think that I'm letting you get away, but I think we can learn more from you before it comes time to deal with you, one way or another. UNVOTE ALAN VOTE LATHUM

10-26-2006, 07:58 PM	#668
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	I like how Sndvls tosses out false accusations and then leaves immediately. As you can see my response was posted a minute after his.

10-26-2006, 08:05 PM	#672
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Hence me saying "tomorrow". Stop bashing ME, dude.

10-26-2006, 08:14 PM	#680
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Votes as of Post #679: (4) Cronin - AlanT (445), Lathum (452), Anxiety (538), BrianD (553) (4) AlanT - Spleen (564), LSG (580), Cronin (586), SnDvls (658) (3) Lathum - Path (642), Hoops (643), Tyrith (665) (2) BrianD - Fouts (631), MrW (641) No Votes: NTN, Glen, Chief Rum, Saldana

10-26-2006, 08:17 PM	#683
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	True. Sigh, these tiny mathematical margins will never get us anywhere in reality compared to the things people say, but at least math is consistent. Bleeeehhh.

10-26-2006, 08:17 PM	#684
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Alan, here is what I think is one of the interesting points for this game. If someone comes up as a non-STARS at the start of the game then the Chief will know every time they are lying. That presents a challenge for someone who is a high volume poster - chances are pretty good they are going to get smoked out early in the game if the Chief can wield any influence. So, what is a person like that to do? Well, they could play their usual high-post style and demand people supply logic for their votes as he exits the game. Perfectly normal request, but by enforcing this logic he hopes to provide a better footprint for his teammates to attack going forward. If that person was to come up with three random candidates, well the chances of all of them being STARS would not be 7%, would it? In fact, the chances of one of his teammates being one of the three "random" candidates would likely be pretty close to seven percent.

10-26-2006, 08:31 PM	#688
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Alan is going to come into contact with anti-Alan and they will mutually annihilate, ruptering space time and erasing all knowledge of his existance from history.

10-26-2006, 08:34 PM	#691
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Alan, what part of the scenario I painted do you not understand? I can get you saying that the scenario does not apply to you, but do you not understand the challenge that a high-volume poster would face, as I described it?

10-26-2006, 08:38 PM	#695
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Cronin, why do you think Lathum is more likely to be good than Alan? Both have cast early votes on Day 1 and Day 2 for villagers if we are both STARS. So what else acts as a differentiator between these two for your vote?

10-26-2006, 08:40 PM	#696
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	Okay, so I think Alan's theorys are border line far out there, but I dont think that makes him a zombie... After reading this and realizing that AlanT has in fact answered every question we have thrown at him, I have concluded either he got a degree in BS or he is a STARS. With that being said, I dont like the votes for Cronin... That leaves Lathum. And between lathum and alant, alant has been far more helpful and amusing thus far. [b]Unvote AlanT/B] Vote Lathum

10-26-2006, 08:41 PM	#698
LoneStarGirl College Starter Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Little Rock, AR	How silly... Unvote AlanT Vote Lathum

10-26-2006, 08:42 PM	#700
Glengoyne Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Fresno, CA	Well S#!%. I don't feel strongly any of the front runners. I was leaning Cronin's way, and looking to vote Alan, but he really seems to be being up front, and it is apparently more natural to lynch him tomorrow. Then Cronin self voted and unvoted. Plus there was a wave of votes against Alan which might signify people coming to Cronin's aid. The self vote, self unvote makes me feel like voting for him, because it seems manipulative and planned. Lynching Cronin to find that he is Stars, tells us little. If we lynch him and he comes up other than STARS, then that would give us something concrete to go on. That might be something I can get behind. There is an upside to voting Cronin, IF he comes up evil. I'm not real happy with the Lathum or BrianD votes, other than the fact that they aren't Cronin. BrianD has been less active, so there is a bit of attraction to that, plus the thought that lynching him might turn into a Jackpot if the wolves targetted Kwhit because he was a threat. That makes BrianD and Cronin the two best votes in my book. vote BrianD would give us two ties. vote Cronin would give us a leader with three voters left to go. Honestly the most suspicious person I've seen was snDvls. He waltzes in says that AlanT backed off when the heat was applied, while I haven't been here watching, I did note, while catching up, that damn every other post seems to be Alan's. My gut is now telling me to vote SnDvls. I'd feel better about lynching him than anyone else at the forefront. I don't know enough to know if this is going to make me look bad as if I'm dodging a tie break. I do know that he seems to have pretty clearly misrepresented the facts, and that would make me comfortable even being the first vote for him, even if he is somehow lynched. It is the vote I feel best making Vote SnDvls

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