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Old 05-28-2009, 05:04 PM   #651
ntndeacon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
Meaning you voted EF in the hopes of keeping a tie with DT and Lerriuqs?

yea, I know it sounds inane or at least like I wasnt paying attention. (Clearly I wasnt.) I used the vote ahead of me as the way the group was feeling. Horrible move I know. and really to keep the tie with lerriuqs. I did not realize DT was in the mix at the time. then I went to clean as I had house guests coming. did not get back to look til today. so I did not see Barkeeps vote talley later on.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:05 PM   #652
Lathum
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CR, I think we are trusting him because no one has claimed otherwise. It seems at some point we need to put some faith in semi trusted players early.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:07 PM   #653
ntndeacon
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believe dubb
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:10 PM   #654
lerriuqs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
Can someone explain to me how dubb is proven and trusted, given that the Duke could be anyone who was not on lerriuqs (faulty reasoning to assume Duke is on DT, per the tiebreaker rules, that does not have to be the case), and the real Duke (if it's not dubb) would not be able to take care of dubb traditionally (no lynch power)?

Look, I know he's probably exactly who he says he is, but it still feels to me like we're rushing to trust him, and now hand him a powerful seer role, when, to my knowledge, he still hasn't proven a thing.

I certainly hope that the real Duke (if it's not dubb) is paying attention and will reveal himself to settle this. The unfortunate thing is that if dubb is the real Duke, there will be no Duke to positively confirm it (of course). We can only negatively reject it with a real Duke reveal, or wonder if the real Duke is staying silent for some reason.
Based on the vote
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barkeep49 View Post
DaddyTorgo 6 – lerriuqs (250), Danny (306), Racer (312), EagleFan (383), Tyrith (411), Dubb (420)

No one else has claimed the role. Myself, Tyrith and Racer have said we're not the duke, Eaglefan is dead and Danny is not disputing either. Ergo, Dubb is all that's left. So either someone is choosing not to reveal or Dubb is the duke.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:10 PM   #655
dubb93
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Vote Count:

Schmidty - 1 - Racer (590)

MartinD - 1 - lerriuqs (597)

Tyrith - 1 - Danny (605)

Danny - 1 - Tyrith (641)

Believe for Seer: (Possible 15 votes, takes 6 to get to 40%)

Dubb - 11 - Tyrith (578), Racer (581), dubb (582), lerriuqs (585), PB (589), Danny (601), Lathum (618), Telle (629), hoops (641), saldana (643), ntn (653)

CR - 3 - lerriuqs (571), Tyrith (576), saldana (579)

PB - 1 - USFL (550) **PB is not eligible
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:11 PM   #656
Chief Rum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
CR, I think we are trusting him because no one has claimed otherwise. It seems at some point we need to put some faith in semi trusted players early.

If that's the case, then I truly do hope that he is the Duke, and not that there is a real Duke choosing to keep silent. Because we're about to hand him perhaps the most powerful role in the game. And if anyone was paying attention in the last game, you might realize he's a pretty dangerous person to hand that power to without some legit verification of his allegiance.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:14 PM   #657
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
If that's the case, then I truly do hope that he is the Duke, and not that there is a real Duke choosing to keep silent. Because we're about to hand him perhaps the most powerful role in the game. And if anyone was paying attention in the last game, you might realize he's a pretty dangerous person to hand that power to without some legit verification of his allegiance.

A real duke choosing to be silent would be super fail today. Dubb has insisted that he really is the duke and is not the villager trying to play something. There comes a limit to the usefulness of secrecy if it comes at the sacrifice of clarity. And the only legit verification we have is seer scans and corpses. One of those is in short supply, and the other is pretty useless to us.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:14 PM   #658
lerriuqs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
If that's the case, then I truly do hope that he is the Duke, and not that there is a real Duke choosing to keep silent. Because we're about to hand him perhaps the most powerful role in the game. And if anyone was paying attention in the last game, you might realize he's a pretty dangerous person to hand that power to without some legit verification of his allegiance.

Given that the tiebreaker vote has been established - it makes no sense to hide their role at this point and everyone who voted DT has been active with no one else claiming.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:15 PM   #659
Chief Rum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lerriuqs View Post
Based on the vote


No one else has claimed the role. Myself, Tyrith and Racer have said we're not the duke, Eaglefan is dead and Danny is not disputing either. Ergo, Dubb is all that's left. So either someone is choosing not to reveal or Dubb is the duke.

lerriuqs, no one seems to have carped to what I have been pointing out since last night--we have no indication that DT wasn't lynched via the second tiebreaker, not the first. Everyone is assuming the first, and that the Duke has to be in the DT list. While that might be true, what we actually know to be true is that the Duke was NOT on you last night. That's not the same as saying he IS on DT.

There were four or five other players (including myself) who were not on DT or on youself who are also perfectly likely to be the Duke. BTW, no, I am not the Duke.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:17 PM   #660
lerriuqs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
lerriuqs, no one seems to have carped to what I have been pointing out since last night--we have no indication that DT wasn't lynched via the second tiebreaker, not the first. Everyone is assuming the first, and that the Duke has to be in the DT list. While that might be true, what we actually know to be true is that the Duke was NOT on you last night. That's not the same as saying he IS on DT.

There were four or five other players (including myself) who were not on DT or on youself who are also perfectly likely to be the Duke. BTW, no, I am not the Duke.

I'm sure the second tiebreaker only comes into play if the Duke is dead.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:17 PM   #661
Chief Rum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrith View Post
A real duke choosing to be silent would be super fail today. Dubb has insisted that he really is the duke and is not the villager trying to play something. There comes a limit to the usefulness of secrecy if it comes at the sacrifice of clarity. And the only legit verification we have is seer scans and corpses. One of those is in short supply, and the other is pretty useless to us.

I agree completely. In the end, I'll probably abide by things because, as Lathum said, we have to trust someone some time, and there is at least some evidence (almost all circumstantial) to support dubb's assertion. But that doesn't mean we should accept it without questioning. Especially since I see the entire village has misread the tiebreaker rules to this point.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:18 PM   #662
Chief Rum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lerriuqs View Post
I'm sure the second tiebreaker only comes into play if the Duke is dead.

Read the rules. The second tiebreaker comes into play if the Duke does not break the tie. That could come by death. It could also come by the Duke not being on one of the main candidates.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:19 PM   #663
lerriuqs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
Read the rules. The second tiebreaker comes into play if the Duke does not break the tie. That could come by death. It could also come by the Duke not being on one of the main candidates.

Yeah, that just occurred to me - well neither Schmidty nor ntn has claimed it either and I believe both have shown up today...
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:21 PM   #664
MartinD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lerriuqs View Post
I'm sure the second tiebreaker only comes into play if the Duke is dead.

From rules post:

What about with a tie?
The Duke breaks the tie. If the Duke is not able to break the tie, it will be the person who received the last vote that day.


I can see 'if the Duke is not able to break the tie' being interpreted as 'if the Duke's vote is not on one of the tied lynch candidates', as well as 'if the Duke is not available because he's already dead'...
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:22 PM   #665
Racer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
CR, I think we are trusting him because no one has claimed otherwise. It seems at some point we need to put some faith in semi trusted players early.

Also, I'm pretty sure that everyone else who voted for Daddy Torgo last night is either dead (EagleFan) or has come out and said they aren't the Duke (myself included).
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:22 PM   #666
ntndeacon
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A question...
what would happen in a tie that the duke was not involved in?
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:24 PM   #667
ntndeacon
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ok I see now my question has already been answered
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:24 PM   #668
Chief Rum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lerriuqs View Post
Yeah, that just occurred to me - well neither Schmidty nor ntn has claimed it either and I believe both have shown up today...

Yeah, as I said before, dubb's likely the Duke. It would take a fortuitous set of circumstances for him to not be the Duke and have gotten this many breaks his way, with the lynch and a silent real Duke not speaking up.

I am just concerned that we're handing out trust so easily at this point. Perhaps I am being overly cautious, but I would feel a lot better if dubb were more clearly vouched for by a completely separate individual, preferably with some role for doing so (like the seer). PB scanning dubb last night would have helped, but I certainly can't argue against him scanning me.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:27 PM   #669
Lathum
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Vote Danny

I don't have much to go on, but I don't want to introduce a new candidate ( not sure who I would introduce anyway) and starting with the DT voters is as good a place as any.

Want to get a vote in now because I am picking my wife up from work and if we go out for drinks or something I won't be back.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:27 PM   #670
ntndeacon
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and officially iam not the duke.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:29 PM   #671
Chief Rum
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Is the reasoning on voting a DT voter simply because he was a villager?
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:29 PM   #672
dubb93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
PB scanning dubb last night would have helped, but I certainly can't argue against him scanning me.

I am the duke. PB is more than welcome to scan me tonight.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:32 PM   #673
MartinD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lerriuqs View Post
VOTE MARTIND

The number of early votes on my all citing the "cultist" theme as their reason makes me think I had at least one or two wolves on me. Martin's spot seems off since he was going to vote me, then wasn't, then was...Just looks like there was outside info adding to this.

Does this mean that publicly changing your mind can get added to that list of actions that 'prove' that someone is a wolf that was kicking about in the Group Therapy game?
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:33 PM   #674
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
Is the reasoning on voting a DT voter simply because he was a villager?

pretty much.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:47 PM   #675
lerriuqs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MartinD View Post
Does this mean that publicly changing your mind can get added to that list of actions that 'prove' that someone is a wolf that was kicking about in the Group Therapy game?

Whatever works.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:49 PM   #676
MartinD
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I'll admit to having a few misgivings about the plan that PurdueBrad has put forward - while it looks good on the surface, I think that it may be based on a few somewhat shaky assumptions. In particular, it's all based on PB's declaration that he is the seer - there's no way of proving this, and there's also a 50-50 chance that he's the false seer.

(Yes, I realise that I've been a bit negative so far during the game - most of what I've posted has been trying to pick holes in analysis posted by other players, but it's pretty much force of habit for me to do that sort of thing (mostly down to my education and line of work, where scepticism is seen as a virtue - 'don't believe it unless you can prove it' is a fair description of how I need to think at work a lot of the time...))
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:55 PM   #677
Danny
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I feel very strongly PB is the seer or false seer. With that said, I do think there are a lot of assumptions in his plan and the potential for a wrench to be thrown into that.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:56 PM   #678
Danny
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
pretty much.

And you do realize for all intents and purposes I planned to have my vote on Lerriuqs and not DT right? It turned out Barkeep went with the different minute deadline that I am used to, so my vote didn't count, but the intention was there.
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Old 05-28-2009, 05:58 PM   #679
USFLTecmo
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DISBELIEVE PB AS SEER

Now that I know he's not eligible, figures I shouldn't be looking towards him.
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Old 05-28-2009, 06:09 PM   #680
Schmidty
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
I am just concerned that we're handing out trust so easily at this point. Perhaps I am being overly cautious, but I would feel a lot better if dubb were more clearly vouched for by a completely separate individual, preferably with some role for doing so (like the seer). PB scanning dubb last night would have helped, but I certainly can't argue against him scanning me.

I totally agree with you about handing out trust too early. At the same time, as Lathum said, we have to do something at some point. Twiddling our thumbs out of extreme caution does us nothing other than give more time for the wolves to wreak havoc.

I'm going to go on the side of action:

Believe dubb

Also, I am not the Duke. I am vanilla.
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Old 05-28-2009, 06:13 PM   #681
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Originally Posted by Racer View Post
Vote Schmidty

There doesn't seem to be a push towards anyone right now and there doesn't seem to be any new information that points to anyone being bad in particular. Voting for Schmidty for the time being because he's been quiet and had the chance to move his vote when it was obviously a throw-away vote, but didn't (only one to vote for Martin).

Two things:

1. I am usually quiet at the beginning, as most will attest to.

2. I generally hate jumping on bandwagons day one, as they will attest to too. That annoys people like Lathum, but I always do it.

I think that you voting for me for my "silence" is a cop-out. Since I don't know where else to go, and because your vote seems opportunistic (since you probably thought I wouldn't be around enough to refute it), I am going with you.

Vote Racer

Subject to change of course.
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Old 05-28-2009, 06:15 PM   #682
MartinD
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I can't help feeling that (at least) one of the wolves has managed to insinuate their way into the village's 'master plan' for winning the game, leaving the wolves in an ideal position to manipulate the rest of us as they please. Unfortunately, I don't have the time right now to work my way through the thread to try to find out more...

This vote is, therefore, a bit hurried, and could potentially be seen as a hit-and-run (given that I'm done for the night once I've finished this post). I really don't have much feel at the moment for who might potentially be a wolf, so have gone with Lathum's logic (that it's pretty likely that at least one wolf voted for DT on Day 1).

VOTE TYRITH

(I was considering voting for lerriuqs again (and will definitely have him on my shortlist for tomorrow's vote, if I'm around to make it), but there doesn't seem to be much support for a lerriuqs lynch at this point.)

(I haven't posted any 'believe' votes, because it looks like a foregone conclusion that dubb is going to be voted as seer - the one vote I could contribute, either for or against, isn't going to have any impact on the result.)
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Old 05-28-2009, 06:18 PM   #683
Racer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny View Post
And you do realize for all intents and purposes I planned to have my vote on Lerriuqs and not DT right? It turned out Barkeep went with the different minute deadline that I am used to, so my vote didn't count, but the intention was there.

I was under the impression near the deadline yesterday that you wanted to make it a tie so we had a good idea whether or not Dubb was really the Duke or not. Basically, you didn't seem to care whether we lynched DT or Lerriuqs, you just wanted to make it a tie vote so saying you planned to vote for Lerriuqs isn't really fair either.

It turnneed out to be a good idea since I think everyo not on Lerriuqs has either come out and said they are not the Duke and/or believing Dubb as the Seer (which implies they aren't the Duke).
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Old 05-28-2009, 06:22 PM   #684
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Originally Posted by Danny View Post
I feel very strongly PB is the seer or false seer. With that said, I do think there are a lot of assumptions in his plan and the potential for a wrench to be thrown into that.

Danny, I highly agree but I felt that if we took a back seat this game, we would be in trouble so I wanted to push things.
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Old 05-28-2009, 06:25 PM   #685
Racer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Schmidty View Post
Two things:

1. I am usually quiet at the beginning, as most will attest to.

2. I generally hate jumping on bandwagons day one, as they will attest to too. That annoys people like Lathum, but I always do it.

I think that you voting for me for my "silence" is a cop-out. Since I don't know where else to go, and because your vote seems opportunistic (since you probably thought I wouldn't be around enough to refute it), I am going with you.

Vote Racer

Subject to change of course.

My vote's primary intention was to try to get you to talk. Of course, #2 was also a big reason. Since I haven't really played any games with you (that I remember - although I think you were the GM in the last game I played), I think it's ridiculous to suggest that I would vote for you because I thought you wouldn't be around.
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Old 05-28-2009, 06:27 PM   #686
Racer
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Dola, even if I was a wolf, I don't think I would vote for someone just because I thought they wouldn't be around.
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Old 05-28-2009, 06:37 PM   #687
Danny
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Originally Posted by Racer View Post
I was under the impression near the deadline yesterday that you wanted to make it a tie so we had a good idea whether or not Dubb was really the Duke or not. Basically, you didn't seem to care whether we lynched DT or Lerriuqs, you just wanted to make it a tie vote so saying you planned to vote for Lerriuqs isn't really fair either.

It turnneed out to be a good idea since I think everyo not on Lerriuqs has either come out and said they are not the Duke and/or believing Dubb as the Seer (which implies they aren't the Duke).

That's correct, but I was addressing Lathum's idea that at least one wolf had to be set on lynching DT where like you said, I didn't have a preference.
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Old 05-28-2009, 06:38 PM   #688
Danny
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I need to leave in a few for class, not sure if I will be back for deadline or not.
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Old 05-28-2009, 06:38 PM   #689
Chief Rum
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Originally Posted by MartinD View Post
(I haven't posted any 'believe' votes, because it looks like a foregone conclusion that dubb is going to be voted as seer - the one vote I could contribute, either for or against, isn't going to have any impact on the result.)

That's a poor move. Someone (hoops?) already pointed out how slim our margin is. All it would take is for some disagreement to develop or another candidate, and all of a sudden we would have less than 40% on all candidates.

I think it's definitely a negative to withhold any belief votes, and to not be a part of setting up a believed seer looks even worse, as no role can hurt the wolves more.

Although I would guess this would be a rather overt, and thus unlikely to be a wolf, move, it's still a point against you in my mind, and makes me wonder if you might actually be the cultist.
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Old 05-28-2009, 07:03 PM   #690
Racer
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Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
That's a poor move. Someone (hoops?) already pointed out how slim our margin is. All it would take is for some disagreement to develop or another candidate, and all of a sudden we would have less than 40% on all candidates.

I think it's definitely a negative to withhold any belief votes, and to not be a part of setting up a believed seer looks even worse, as no role can hurt the wolves more.

Although I would guess this would be a rather overt, and thus unlikely to be a wolf, move, it's still a point against you in my mind, and makes me wonder if you might actually be the cultist.

Did Martin actually claim the cultist role at some point? I thought that was just Lerriuqs and I.

If reason isn't because he did or you thought he claimed the cultist role, I'd be interested to knowing your reasoning.

That said, I agree with you that there is no reason why Martin shouldn't be voting to believe dubb.
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Old 05-28-2009, 07:10 PM   #691
Chief Rum
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Did Martin actually claim the cultist role at some point? I thought that was just Lerriuqs and I.

If reason isn't because he did or you thought he claimed the cultist role, I'd be interested to knowing your reasoning.

That said, I agree with you that there is no reason why Martin shouldn't be voting to believe dubb.

I don't know that Martin is the cultist. I am just noting that his decision on his belief votes is rather overtly wolfish, maybe too wolfish to buy as it being by a wolf. Which is why it is suggestive to me that he might have tripped up as the cultist, perhaps going too far to play his hand so the wolves would know who he was.

I can't think of a positive way to look at his decision to withhold his belief votes, especially from setting up the believed seer.
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Old 05-28-2009, 07:11 PM   #692
Chief Rum
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Heading home. Will post and vote when I get there.
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I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.
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Old 05-28-2009, 07:12 PM   #693
Racer
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chief Rum View Post
I don't know that Martin is the cultist. I am just noting that his decision on his belief votes is rather overtly wolfish, maybe too wolfish to buy as it being by a wolf. Which is why it is suggestive to me that he might have tripped up as the cultist, perhaps going too far to play his hand so the wolves would know who he was.

I can't think of a positive way to look at his decision to withhold his belief votes, especially from setting up the believed seer.

Ah, that makes sense.
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Old 05-28-2009, 07:20 PM   #694
PurdueBrad
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
I don't have a count but I think it is a three or four horse race at this point. Like Lathum, I don't want to introduce anybody new, meaning it is Tyrith, Danny, lerriuqs, or MartinD. I'm going to go back and poke around through some posts just to see if I can find something.
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PB is a very good person and doesn't covort with concubines...
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Old 05-28-2009, 07:29 PM   #695
Tyrith
College Starter
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Houston, TX
Ugh, yeah, this is a total mess. And I feel like we have something like six votes still uncast.
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Old 05-28-2009, 07:33 PM   #696
PurdueBrad
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
I guess I'm going to do something that I disagreed with last game (just a bit, hehe) and that is vote to get some information.

vote lerriuqs
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PB is a very good person and doesn't covort with concubines...
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Old 05-28-2009, 07:37 PM   #697
lerriuqs
High School Varsity
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
Up to date count...I think.

Votes:
Schmidty - 1 - Racer (590)
MartinD - 1 - lerriuqs (597)
Tyrith - 2 - Danny (605), Martin D (682)
Danny - 2 - Tyrith (641), Lathum (669)
Racer – 1 – Schmidty (681)

Believe for Seer: (Possible 15 votes, takes 6 to get to 40%)

Dubb - 12 - Tyrith (578), Racer (581), dubb (582), lerriuqs (585), PB (589), Danny (601), Lathum (618), Telle (629), hoops (641), saldana (643), ntn (653), Schmidty (680)
CR - 3 - lerriuqs (571), Tyrith (576), saldana (579)

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Old 05-28-2009, 07:37 PM   #698
dubb93
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Join Date: Nov 2004
I'm most interested in MartinD's unwillingness to vote for either CR or I today. I would prefer he vote me, but if he feels like I am not a good choice for the love of god vote CR. This is a vote that gives us a seer.
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Old 05-28-2009, 07:37 PM   #699
lerriuqs
High School Varsity
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saskatchewan
Votes:
Schmidty - 1 - Racer (590)
MartinD - 1 - lerriuqs (597)
Tyrith - 2 - Danny (605), Martin D (682)
Danny - 2 - Tyrith (641), Lathum (669)
Racer – 1 – Schmidty (681)
lerriuqs - 1 - PurdueBrad (696)

Believe for Seer: (Possible 15 votes, takes 6 to get to 40%)

Dubb - 12 - Tyrith (578), Racer (581), dubb (582), lerriuqs (585), PB (589), Danny (601), Lathum (618), Telle (629), hoops (641), saldana (643), ntn (653), Schmidty (680)
CR - 3 - lerriuqs (571), Tyrith (576), saldana (579)
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Old 05-28-2009, 07:39 PM   #700
Lathum
Favored Bitch #1
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
Quote:
Originally Posted by PurdueBrad View Post
I guess I'm going to do something that I disagreed with last game (just a bit, hehe) and that is vote to get some information.

vote lerriuqs

what information are you hoping to get?
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