Israeli-Hamas War (Oct 2023)

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Reading some people that know the region well, they are questioning how well and effectively Hezbollah can go on. They say Nasrallah was basically the only leader that could keep the organization together, and the one that Iran had the most faith in. Now in the matter of days they completely severed the head off the snake.

Those people do not know the region well, good lord.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Those people do not know the region well, good lord.

I'm glad you know better than actual Lebanese people, but I wouldn't expect any less.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I'm glad you know better than actual Lebanese people, but I wouldn't expect any less.

It's literally a guerilla group known for its flexibility and "next man up" structure. People said the same thing after al-Musawi was killed as well as many others. They just keep getting stronger because the West hasn't figured out how these groups operate and why they're successful.

But hey, maybe this will be the time they'll be right. Broken clocks and all that.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It's literally a guerilla group known for its flexibility and "next man up" structure. People said the same thing after al-Musawi was killed as well as many others. They just keep getting stronger because the West hasn't figured out how these groups operate and why they're successful.

But hey, maybe this will be the time they'll be right. Broken clocks and all that.

These guys have been in leadership for decades. I mean, some of them were planners of the attack on the Marines in 1983. These aren't swappable leaders that you can find in other groups. And it wasn't just one leader, it was the whole leadership group. It will take time to rebuild what they had in place without these guys. Hezbollah isn't as much a guerrilla organization as a political party with funding coming from Iran. The political influence is the thing they have lost with this.

If Nasrallah is dead, and it’s still a big if, it will have a massive impact. In 32 years he has built up the organisation in his image, as well as establishing his status as the most central non-Iranian figure in proxies network, advising Supreme Leader Khamenei on strategy >

— Anshel Pfeffer אנשיל פפר (@AnshelPfeffer) September 27, 2024

[GrantDawg]

What’s next for #Hezbollah, if #Nasrallah is killed.
- On the political level: As I said in my succession paper a few years back, not only he is the most charismatic Hezbollah leader (he speaks colloquial Arabic; not Fusha, he smiles, he jokes), and no one else does that.
- He…
— Hanin Ghaddar (@haningdr) September 27, 2024

[Edward64]

Many of the next in line are probably crippled or out of commission in the near term.

If Israel is going to invade, soon is as good of time as any.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Many of the next in line are probably crippled or out of commission in the near term.

If Israel is going to invade, soon is as good of time as any.

No time would be as good a time as any. It would be a massive mistake if they do, but it wouldn't surprise me of Netanyahu.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Many of the next in line are probably crippled or out of commission in the near term.

If Israel is going to invade, soon is as good of time as any.

On one hand, their economy is on the verge of collapse and a ground war in Lebanon could be a disaster. They're struggling against Hamas which is not in the same stratosphere in terms of fighting. But they do have air superiority and could just keep bombing endlessly if they want before going in.

On the other hand, Bibi's approval goes up with each new war they start. And it keeps him out of prison. Plus a full scale war before the election hurts Harris a lot and helps Trump, which is an added benefit for Bibi. And he can always hand Trump that Reagan moment on a ceasefire if things do go south.

My gut says full scale war is inevitable and very soon. They really won't find a better time to do it with the Hezbollah command in a state of flux.

[RainMaker]

If anyone wants to learn more about Hezbollah I highly recommend the book Warriors of God. It should be on Audible or the library apps. Well written and gives a lot of insight into the group and it's structure.

[Edward64]

Hamas' leader in Lebanon killed.

Palestinian militant group Hamas said on Monday that its leader in Lebanon Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin was killed along with some of his family members in an Israeli strike in the south of the country.

He was head of the UNRWA Teachers Union.

x.com

[GrantDawg]

There are also reports that they hit the compound of Maher al-Assad, Basher's brother. They have not confirmed whether he is alive or dead.

[Edward64]

May be starting …

Israeli ground operation in Lebanon appears to have begun, U.S. officials say

[Lathum]

Looks like Iran is gearing up. The middle east is about to explode just in time for an election. We are totally gonna get Trump.

Live updates: Israel-Hezbollah war, ground incursion in Lebanon, Gaza attacks | CNN

[RainMaker]

Iran has launched missiles into Tel Aviv and it looks like they are connecting. Don't think we've seen the Iron Dome tested in this way before.

Ground troops have invaded Lebanon and are doing raids in villages. Sounds like UN troops are going to have to retreat out of the region. Hezbollah is currently retreating.

Israel has ramped up attacks in the West Bank and has been bombing Syria and Yemen too.

A mass shooting in Jaffa. Details uncertain but reports of multiple casualties.

Oil up 5% and climbing.

Here are some vids that can be embedded. Telegram has way more. This is going to get very ugly for the world.









[GrantDawg]

IDF are reporting few casualties so far. It looks like they targeted military infrastructure , and the Iranian government referred to the strike as a "first wave." Wonder what the specific targets were? Guessing something to degrade the Iron Dome for another more destructive attack.

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[Edward64]

Israel’s response will be interesting. Joe’s also.

[GrantDawg]

Correction: Israel is claiming no injuries from the attacks. Still, it seems some missiles hit. So you have to think they hit infrastructure that had been evacuated.

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[cartman]

Sounds like pretty much a repeat of the last time they fired a volley of missiles at Israel.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

IDF are reporting few casualties so far. It looks like they targeted military infrastructure , and the Iranian government referred to the strike as a "first wave." Wonder what the specific targets were? Guessing something to degrade the Iron Dome for another more destructive attack.

It looks like they targeted Mossad HQ from the videos. It could be a long time before we know the damage as it's illegal to report on it.

I don't think they'll target the Iron Dome per say. There are other ways around it like flooding the air with really cheap drones which seems to be what they are doing. They act as decoys as the higher powered missiles get through. Seems like from the photos popping up online that it's some kind of Shahab-3.

The Iron Dome may have worked regardless of what we're seeing. They don't use it in the Arab areas or the West Bank, so the videos of explosions could just be happening there. It may have worked fine in the whiter areas.

As for a response from the US and Israel, I'm guessing this is going to be their deterrent. Walking into an election with gas at $6/gallon won't be pretty although may not matter.




[cartman]

so far the only reported casualty is a Palestinian killed by a failing missile body in the West Bank

[Edward64]

Expecting to wake up reading about Israel attacking Iran.

My logical side is saying don't escalate anymore or just do a small attack like the Iranian assets in Syria. Israel got big wins over the past 2 weeks, let's call it a 9. Iran's response was relatively weak and meaningless, let's call it a 2. Take the win Israel.

[Dutch]

I’m thinking that too. If Iran’s missile system was a baseball player, their batting average is what? .001? It was a very weak response and simply a show of support for their terrorist proxies. They still expect Hamas and Hezbollah to take the brunt of it.

So Netanyahu getting away with just wiping some dust off his shoulder in the next presser would be effective here. Then they go back to work killing the terrorists.

The only wrinkle is if Iran prepares a nuke. Then the Iranian leadership can start kissing their asses goodbye.

[Mota]

Can they drop a nuke so close to home? Wouldn't that be killing thousands of their own as well with fallout?

[PilotMan]

I'm so old I remember when trump declared that he'd brought peace to the middle east. Man, those were the days.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I'm so old I remember when trump declared that he'd brought peace to the middle east. Man, those were the days.

And I’m young enough to remember when Biden-Harris unraveled it all with weak words towards terrorists, cold words towards Israel, and unlocking the Iranian coffers they supplied to their forward combat units.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Mota

Can they drop a nuke so close to home? Wouldn't that be killing thousands of their own as well with fallout?

Israel & Iran have Jordan and Iraq between them, so over a 1,000+ miles.

If Iran successfully nukes Israel (ballistic and not tactical nukes), fallout will probably be an issue but Iran will have much bigger issues to worry about. I believe Israel have nuclear cruise missile they can launch from subs.

[JPhillips]

I'm so old I remember when Iran attacked US troops and Trump didn't do anything.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'm so old I remember when Iran attacked US troops and Trump didn't do anything.

Even downplayed their head injuries, dismissing them as headaches, and blocking Purple Hearts for the injured.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Dutch

And I’m young enough to remember when Biden-Harris unraveled it all with weak words towards terrorists, cold words towards Israel, and unlocking the Iranian coffers they supplied to their forward combat units.

[RainMaker]

An American from Michigan was killed in Israeli air strikes the other day in Lebanon. The state department has refused to provide evacuation for all the Americans that are in the country (there are a lot). So expect that number to climb.

Oil up 5% today, 9% for the week. Hopefully just fear that oil refineries will be targeted which Biden didn't rule out. Still can't imagine them being fine with that as the backlash would be massive.

As for nuclear fallout, it would be tough to tell since there are mountainous regions that may contain some fallout. It would regardless be a disaster no matter who launched as it would cause massive chaos in the Middle East and lead to a global depression the likes we haven't seen in the modern era.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Israel & Iran have Jordan and Iraq between them, so over a 1,000+ miles.

If Iran successfully nukes Israel (ballistic and not tactical nukes), fallout will probably be an issue but Iran will have much bigger issues to worry about. I believe Israel have nuclear cruise missile they can launch from subs.

It is mutually assured destruction, and really not likely. Iran is often painted as an irrational actor, but they are actually very interested in self-preservation. The want a nuclear weapons so they have a threat and a bargaining chip, just like all nuclear powers. Actual use would be last resort, and that would take any kind of invasion off the table.

[RainMaker]

If anything, Iran having nukes would make the region safer. It's bad for more countries to have nukes but MAD is a hell of a deterrent.

[RainMaker]

So we have 2 militaries we fund shooting at each other now. Dream scenario for the defense industry.

BREAKING: Lebanon army says returns fire at Israel for first time after soldier killed, via @AFP.

— Aya Iskandarani (@Aya_Isk) October 3, 2024

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

If anything, Iran having nukes would make the region safer. It's bad for more countries to have nukes but MAD is a hell of a deterrent.

Not only no, but hell no. With the hardliners involved, way too much risk of first strike.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

So we have 2 militaries we fund shooting at each other now. Dream scenario for the defense industry.

BREAKING: Lebanon army says returns fire at Israel for first time after soldier killed, via @AFP.
— Aya Iskandarani (@Aya_Isk) October 3, 2024

Dick Cheney approves.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Not only no, but hell no. With the hardliners involved, way too much risk of first strike.

Again, I don't think that is the biggest risk. The biggest risks is allowing terrorist groups have nuclear material. Dirty bombs in the hands of fanatics would be horrifying.

[Edward64]

Another big strike, supposedly another big target. Considering how successful IDF has been recently, wouldn't surprise me if this was legit.

Israeli defense officials cautiously optimistic that Hezbollah leader Safieddine was eliminated in strike on Beirut bunker, @newsisrael13 reports. Waiting for official confirmation.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Dick Cheney approves.

He was just ahead of his time.

Kamala Harris to Liz Cheney: 'I also want to thank your father, Vice President Dick Cheney, for his support and what he has done to serve our country.'

— Charlie Spiering (@charliespiering) October 3, 2024

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

He was just ahead of his time.

You see, he is really a fun guy. I hear he is a blast to go hunting with.

[Passacaglia]

University of Michigan Jewish students, rabbi held at gunpoint during dinner | Fox News

I had to find four articles on this before I could find something saying whether there was evidence of a hate crime (there wasn't), but apparently it's very important that the people in the house were Jewish and one of them was a rabbi.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

University of Michigan Jewish students, rabbi held at gunpoint during dinner | Fox News

I had to find four articles on this before I could find something saying whether there was evidence of a hate crime (there wasn't), but apparently it's very important that the people in the house were Jewish and one of them was a rabbi.

Made you click. *cha-ching*

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

You see, he is really a fun guy. I hear he is a blast to go hunting with.

I just saw Vice the other night and had almost forgot that he made that poor guy apologize for getting shot in the face.

And speaking of movies, it reminds me of that scene in Lord of War where Nic Cage is talking about selling weapons to both sides of the conflict.

[Edward64]

If I was playing Civ and could save scum, I’d like to see how this plays out. Markets and economy will take a big hit because of the oil factor, but yeah I’d like to see their nuclear capabilities knocked out.

"I think [Biden] got that wrong. Isn't that what you're supposed to hit?" Trump asked.

"The answer should have been to hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later," the former president said.

Earlier, when asked if he supported an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, Biden, while speaking to reporters, said "No."

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Edward64

If I was playing Civ and could save scum, I’d like to see how this plays out. Markets and economy will take a big hit because of the oil factor, but yeah I’d like to see their nuclear capabilities knocked out.

Iran's new sites are so far underground it's highly unlikely Israel or even our military could damage them with conventional bombs.

Trump would know that if he paid attention during his intelligence briefs when he was president.

[RainMaker]

They'd probably target oil refineries although Iran said they would bomb oil fields in Saudi Arabia and other countries if that was done. Would certainly push up people's timelines for getting an EV.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Another big strike, supposedly another big target. Considering how successful IDF has been recently, wouldn't surprise me if this was legit.

Another strike in civilian infrastructures with, another (likely) terrorist big wig gone to eat his 72 raisins.

[url="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/5/hezbollah-loses-contact-with-senior-leader-hashem-safieddine-sources"]

Hezbollah has lost contact with one of its senior leaders, Hashem Safieddine, who was seen as a possible successor to slain leader Hassan Nasrallah, since Friday after an Israeli air strike on Beirut’s Dahiyeh neighbourhood, a Lebanese security source told Al Jazeera.

[Edward64]

WaPo article on the pagers

archive.ph

[Edward64]

There were some rumors earlier this week that last Fri strike targeting Safieddine also killed some Iranians. The Iranian media is asking questions too.

If true, the IDF strike killed both Nasarallah's successor's successor and Suleimani's successor ... all while they met in/under civilian areas.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/10...-esmail-ghaani

Iranian news media were all asking a similar question: Where is Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani, the country’s top general and the commander in chief of its elite Quds Forces?

Officials in Iran have not yet given a clear answer, Iranian news media reported.
:
Three Iranian officials said General Ghaani had traveled to Beirut last week to meet with senior Hezbollah officials and to help the group recover from the wave of Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
:
Iranian media has called on officials to confirm the general’s whereabouts. “If General Ghaani is alive and well, the best way to clarify and assure us that he is well is to publish a short video of him,” said Tabnak.

[Edward64]

And in other news, Israel will be passing a bill to essentially cut off UNRWA. Good riddance.

המכתב הבהול של מזכ"ל ×”×�ו"×� ל×*ת×*יהו: ×�ו×*ר"×� בסכ×*×” | פרסו×� ר×�שון

The legislation severing ties between the State of Israel and UNRWA, the relief agency for Palestinian refugees, is expected to be approved today (Sunday) by the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. According to the bill, all government representatives will be prohibited from having contact with UNRWA. In other words, the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Interior will not be able to issue entry visas to UNRWA employees, and customs workers will not be able to handle goods imported by the agency. In the future, tax benefits for the organization will also be canceled.

The bill stipulates that relations with UNRWA will expire as of tomorrow, and UNRWA will lose the diplomatic status and diplomatic immunity it has enjoyed since 1967.

Replace it with another organization that is more neutral, more rigorous in who it hires, and how it helps regular Palestinians. In this case, locals helping locals only serves to radicalize more locals. I'm sure we'll be able to find many volunteers from college campuses.

"UNRWA has long since deviated from its role and has become an ally of Hamas in the struggle against Israel. My bill to sever ties is necessary for Israel's security and for preserving our sovereignty. Anyone who assists terrorists will not benefit from Israel's patronage and impunity. The UN must understand that diplomacy cannot protect terrorists."

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

There were some rumors earlier this week that last Fri strike targeting Safieddine also killed some Iranians. The Iranian media is asking questions too.

If true, the IDF strike killed both Nasarallah's successor's successor and Suleimani's successor ... all while they met in/under civilian areas.

I saw a story that said he was there to talk the leadership into leaving for Iran, because of the pager fiasco they believed that Hezbollah had been fully compromised. Obviously that was proven right.