WW LXIV- The Wedding- GAME OVER GUESTS WIN

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

how is everything Path?

As good as it could have been, thanks. No major blockage, some plaque that should be able to be managed by diet and medicine. I just have to spend the next couple of days mostly lying down so as to make sure I don't spring a leak where they went in.

[path12]

OK, sort of see how this is going. Here's what strikes me offhand: It looks from the vote count last night that Barkeep was either the or very close to the deciding vote on Pass. I think if he's really the mother-in-law then he doesn't get close to voting for either that person or at that time. So Barkeep seems more likely to be good than bad.

If that's the case, then Heinz is lying. So for the moment:

VOTE JEHEINZ

I'll check back later.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

As good as it could have been, thanks. No major blockage, some plaque that should be able to be managed by diet and medicine. I just have to spend the next couple of days mostly lying down so as to make sure I don't spring a leak where they went in.

Sounds like good news, path!

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by path12

As good as it could have been, thanks. No major blockage, some plaque that should be able to be managed by diet and medicine. I just have to spend the next couple of days mostly lying down so as to make sure I don't spring a leak where they went in.

Glad to hear it! Hopefully the recovery will go well.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by path12

OK, sort of see how this is going. Here's what strikes me offhand: It looks from the vote count last night that Barkeep was either the or very close to the deciding vote on Pass. I think if he's really the mother-in-law then he doesn't get close to voting for either that person or at that time. So Barkeep seems more likely to be good than bad.

If that's the case, then Heinz is lying. So for the moment:

VOTE JEHEINZ

I'll check back later.

Here is what happened last night:

7:43 Barkeep votes Pass which makes it

Pass 5 votes
mauboy 3 votes
barkeep 2 votes
clap 2 votes

2 non-votes

8:37 I switch from clap to Pass which makes it

Pass 6 votes
mauboy 3 votes
barkeep 2 votes
clap 1 vote

2 non-votes

Even if the two people who haven’t voted yet vote for mauboy, it won’t save Pass. I was the deciding vote.

9:12 Pass switches from clap to mauboy which makes it

Pass 6 votes
mauboy 4 votes
barkeep 2 votes

2 non-votes

At this point, barkeep can’t switch off pass, because it’ll look bad. DT and Chief Rum are already voting with pass on mauboy to save pass.

At 9:54 Schmidty votes pass, which is the final vote before the deadline.

[Raiders Army]

Any way you cut it, I was the deciding vote to lynch Pass, not barkeep.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Any way you cut it, I was the deciding vote to lynch Pass, not barkeep.

Thanks for breaking it down. I think my point still stands though that by being vote 5 and also putting Pass 2 votes ahead at the time of his vote leads me to believe that Barkeep is not the Mother-in-law like Heinz' reveal claims, and which makes this seem like a pretty easy choice.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I debated this...but I think it's a good point in the game for it

I'm the Maid of Honor. I found out last night that Raiders Army is a wolf.
My viewing sequence looked like this.
D1: NTN
D2: CR
D3: Raiders Army

Consequently

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

Okay, but jeheinz is not a wolf. Speculation is that he is the DQ. DT has said that I'm a wolf. In that respect, it does no good to vote for jeheinz because he counts as a villager. Either you believe that I'm a wolf and jeheinz is the DQ, or believe that DT is the DQ, and barkeep and CR are wolves. I'd recommend voting for either myself or barkeep. As illustrated above with the voting, I'm good.

[Raiders Army]

Also, at 7:43 when Barkeep voted there were still two votes left out there and pass was voting for clap. At that point in time, he could've stayed and one of the non-votes and pass could switch to mauboy to make it:

Pass-5 votes
mau-5 votes

barkeep could then switch with the explanation of wanting to avoid a tie.

My vote was the deciding factor in getting pass lynched.

[mauchow]

wth is going to happen tonight?

Here are my thoughts, yet again:

45% Heinz is right
40% Daddy Torgo is right
15% Neither are Seers

For whatever reason, I'm thinking more and more it could be a double fake reveal, which would be absolutely genius on their part, especially if the final wolf has been playing well enough to keep their name completely off everybody's radar. They could slowly, but surely dwindle our numbers down.

Tonight is going to be SO FREAKIN' CRAZY!

*jeopardy theme music*

[claphamsa]

this looks exciting.... too bad Ill be playign hockey at the deadline.

I will also be in training all day tommrowo but should be able to post tommorow morning.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

wth is going to happen tonight?

Here are my thoughts, yet again:

45% Heinz is right
40% Daddy Torgo is right
15% Neither are Seers

For whatever reason, I'm thinking more and more it could be a double fake reveal, which would be absolutely genius on their part, especially if the final wolf has been playing well enough to keep their name completely off everybody's radar. They could slowly, but surely dwindle our numbers down.

Tonight is going to be SO FREAKIN' CRAZY!

*jeopardy theme music*

you sir need to go run a wyoming dynasty......

[DaddyTorgo]

okay. Back and finally getting back online.

[mauchow]

Ugh, still just under two hours to deadline, I can't wait any longer!

[Raiders Army]

Okay. It looks like I'm gone tonight. The wolves are silent, so they get what they wanted. The only thing they didn't count on was jeheinz coming through. Good luck villagers and this is all he wrote...

[Schmidty]

Wakey, wakey. Eating "breakfast" and reading up on stuff.

[Arles]

Make sure we don't have a tie. Right now, RA has a two vote margin, so two votes for BK would mean a tie and the wolves pick one of us off and we are none the wiser.

[mauchow]

JUST in case neither of these guys are the seer, I HIGHLY suggest you scan JeHeinz tonight. This way we can find out if Heinz isn't a part of some dramatic scheme as a wolf in the scenario I explained.

If not Heinz, then I don't know who to scan.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Arles

Make sure we don't have a tie. Right now, RA has a two vote margin, so two votes for BK would mean a tie and the wolves pick one of us off and we are none the wiser.

Precisely. I already said that I'm going to be changing my vote if it is a tie at 8:59 Central time. No way a tie does anything for us today. The first tie I think worked out great as I don't think Olie is a wolf and I know I'm not.

Regardless.. NO TIE WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT, I don't care if it means me switching my vote over, it does us no good to have a tie at this point.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Arles

Make sure we don't have a tie. Right now, RA has a two vote margin, so two votes for BK would mean a tie and the wolves pick one of us off and we are none the wiser.

Well, that doesn't give me many options then, does it? I can either vote RA and throw away a vote and look bad in the process, or throw away a vote on some random and look bad in the process.

[Arles]

For a summary, here are the options:

1. Believe JeHeinz and agree that he was lucky enough to seer all three wolves in three nights. The remaining wolves would then be DT (drama queen) , Chief Run and Barkeep. jeheinz72, RaidersArmy, Mau and clap believe this.

2. Believe Daddy Torgo who was 1-3 as a seer and found Raiders Army. That means that Raiders Army is a wolf, JeHeinz is probably the DQ and one wolf is unknown (Mau?). DT, NTN, BK, Arlie, olie and CR believe this. Path seems to believe this to but he voted for JeHeinz instead of RA like the rest.

3. Neither are a seer, which means the real seer is one of the rest of us and both DT and JeHeinz are wolves. Seems unlikely as the real seer would probably have surfaced (unless they were somehow voted off).

[mauchow]

See if I ever by BBPF, Arles.

[mauchow]

Shoot... buy.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Well, that doesn't give me many options then, does it? I can either vote RA and throw away a vote and look bad in the process, or throw away a vote on some random and look bad in the process.

its ok no matter how bad you look, youll still be better looking than mau :P

[mauchow]

Whatever, Clap.

I'm the only guy in the game so far that has actually voted for everybody involved right now.

I voted for DT and BK prior to all these reveals. Both votes are on opposite spectrums, so I don't know what you have on me except I know you have a major obsession with my six pack abs.

[Schmidty]

Blah. I don't like this vote, but I seem to have no choice. And yes, if he's a wolf, I'm sure you guys will use it against me. Oh well, I don't know what else to do.

Vote Raiders Army

[Arles]

This is my first time playing WW, so I could be way off. But, I would be pretty surprised if RA isn't a wolf and JeHeinz's story is accurate. The only thing that worries me is if both DT and JeHeinz are in it together (ie, one is a wolf and one is a DQ) with us losing the real seer when Neon Chaos left. If that's the case, we are in bad sorts. The problem is that there's no better play than RA as it's way too risk to vote for DT or JeHeinz since either might as be a guest as the DQ.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Whatever, Clap.

I'm the only guy in the game so far that has actually voted for everybody involved right now.

I voted for DT and BK prior to all these reveals. Both votes are on opposite spectrums, so I don't know what you have on me except I know you have a major obsession with my six pack abs.

Um, pics please!!!!!

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Arles

This is my first time playing WW, so I could be way off. But, I would be pretty surprised if RA isn't a wolf and JeHeinz's story is accurate. The only thing that worries me is if both DT and JeHeinz are in it together (ie, one is a wolf and one is a DQ) with us losing the real seer when Neon Chaos left. If that's the case, we are in bad sorts. The problem is that there's no better play than RA as it's way too risk to vote for DT or JeHeinz since either might as be a guest as the DQ.

I'm almost positive that its going to be either:

A: Heinz is Seer, DT isn't.
B: Heinz or DT isn't Seer.

IMHO, those two scenarios, are more likely now than DT being the Seer.

As a wolf/DQ, its the absolute worst move Heinz could have made, UNLESS they are both NOT the Seer.

I just don't see the point of Heinz lying about it at all and get his name thrown into the mix when he's got nothing against him prior to today.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Um, pics please!!!!!

[mauchow]

Hopefully the FOFC sim will be done soon so I can watch my game of the week against Notre Dame while waiting for this to get rolling.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I'm a happy girl now...thanks

OK, back to WW...

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Arles

For a summary, here are the options:

1. Believe JeHeinz and agree that he was lucky enough to seer all three wolves in three nights. The remaining wolves would then be DT (drama queen) , Chief Run and Barkeep. jeheinz72, RaidersArmy, Mau and clap believe this.

2. Believe Daddy Torgo who was 1-3 as a seer and found Raiders Army. That means that Raiders Army is a wolf, JeHeinz is probably the DQ and one wolf is unknown (Mau?). DT, NTN, BK, Arlie, olie and CR believe this. Path seems to believe this to but he voted for JeHeinz instead of RA like the rest.

3. Neither are a seer, which means the real seer is one of the rest of us and both DT and JeHeinz are wolves. Seems unlikely as the real seer would probably have surfaced (unless they were somehow voted off).

Dude, slant it whatever way you want. I bought BBCF and TPF but I've never played either.

Why are so blind to see that I was the one who caused pass to be lynched?

[mauchow]

There are still enough people around to swing the vote BK's way but there is no way any of the wolves are going to be switching over at this point in time.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

There are still enough people around to swing the vote BK's way but there is no way any of the wolves are going to be switching over at this point in time.

I don't think any of the wolves are going to switch at this point. This is their play so we'll see what happens. This will be extremely interesting once jeheinz is cleared and barkeep, CR, and DT are condemned.

Remember this post once this ordinary villager is dead.

[Raiders Army]

also, bodyguard DO NOT GUARD DADDY TORGO. I know this falls on deaf ears and it will probably happen, but he is not the bride nor groom. He is the DQ. The wolves will attempt to hit the bride or groom tonight to prevent major victory for us (I count myself, since I'm sacrificing myself for you).

[mauchow]

No point in anymore chit-chat. It looks like this is the way its going to be now. I'm fine with it... if everything is truly falling into place the way I hope, then we're going to be sitting just fine after today.

[Raiders Army]

My last attempt: arlie, what do I need to do to convince you? I was the swing vote last night on pass. If I were a wolf, would that make any sense???

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Hopefully the FOFC sim will be done soon so I can watch my game of the week against Notre Dame while waiting for this to get rolling.

Blah, stupid bye week in the FOFC league as I get ready for my... *shudder* bowl game. Blech. But hey, season opener in the BBBBCF!

[Raiders Army]

And schmidty, does it make any sense for Daddy Torgo to come out right after last night's lynch instead of trying to sway the vote if he really is a seer? That makes no sense at all. He didn't hit another wolf and he's dead within two days if he's telling the truth.

[Raiders Army]

I wanna live...really. I want to see the wolves outed for what they are. Screw it, my death will mean the death of the wolves. I just don't understand why you guys (and olie and farrah) can't see reason here. They've made zero compelling arguments and are manipulating you.

[Raiders Army]

Just FYI, I probably need to visit the drunk guy thread.

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I wanna live...really. I want to see the wolves outed for what they are. Screw it, my death will mean the death of the wolves. I just don't understand why you guys (and olie and farrah) can't see reason here. They've made zero compelling arguments and are manipulating you.

Actually you said one little thing that I find rather interesting. You said:

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Okay. It looks like I'm gone tonight. The wolves are silent, so they get what they wanted. The only thing they didn't count on was jeheinz coming through. Good luck villagers and this is all he wrote.

How do you know the wolves are silent, if you don't know who the wolves are?

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Farrah Whitworth-Rahn

Actually you said one little thing that I find rather interesting. You said:



How do you know the wolves are silent, if you don't know who the wolves are?

I know who the wolves are because jeheinz said they were Chief Rum and Barkeep. Daddy Torgo is the DQ and he's quiet as well.

I find this somewhat maddening that Arlie is going with the odds instead of common sense. Why would I be a wolf? Why would jeheinz lie?

[Farrah Whitworth-Rahn]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I know who the wolves are because jeheinz said they were Chief Rum and Barkeep. Daddy Torgo is the DQ and he's quiet as well.

I find this somewhat maddening that Arlie is going with the odds instead of common sense. Why would I be a wolf? Why would jeheinz lie?

Well, Arlie is a stat guy. Of course he's going with odds.

FTR - I'm not entirely sold on either theory.

[Raiders Army]

To follow up, Arlie can ask the question all day on what are the odds of jeheinz hitting two wolves and the DQ. The question that the wolves (BK and CR) and the DQ (DT) haven't answered is that why would I vote for Pass at a crucial time if I were a wolf? Why would jeheinz try to cover me when he wasn't under suspicion? Why would Daddy Torgo, a supposed seer, come out when he didn't have to?

[Raiders Army]

The odds will prevent major victory. I won't lie: I wanna be there when we achieve it. Chances are, you will not achieve major victory if you vote me.

[Arles]

The BBCF card is a good one, and I don't like going after all these longtime BBCF players. That said, I just can't get by the idea that JeHeinz's story is too fantastic. Like I said earlier, if he would have just mentioned one wolf, I might have been swayed. But the odds that his first three seer picks ended up all being wolves. And, not only that, the one wolf he didn't see was voted off yesterday.

As I said, if he is right - I will apologize to RA and get on board to vote off Barkeep and CR to win the game. But, it just doesn't smell right to be that lucky.

[mauchow]

Still no updated FOFC file....... been clicking refresh in here for the past hour. Sad.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Arles

The BBCF card is a good one, and I don't like going after all these longtime BBCF players. That said, I just can't get by the idea that JeHeinz's story is too fantastic. Like I said earlier, if he would have just mentioned one wolf, I might have been swayed. But the odds that his first three seer picks ended up all being wolves. And, not only that, the one wolf he didn't see was voted off yesterday.

As I said, if he is right - I will apologize to RA and get on board to vote off Barkeep and CR to win the game. But, it just doesn't smell right to be that lucky.

Okay, but is it too fantastic to be true? If he were a liar, wouldn't the best lie be a believable one? Get off the "too fantastic to be true" and look at the votes last night. How can you vote for me? I was the nail in the coffin for Pass. Daddy Torgo, Chief Rum, and Barkeep cannot dispute that fact.