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Old 09-23-2011, 01:03 PM   #651
panerd
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There is no possibility of Paul winning the nomination. That's not the media's fault, either. GOP voters don't like Paul. NH is his best state right now and he's being outpolled nearly three to one by Romney. He'll be lucky to break double digits in multiple primaries.

He already announced he is not running for Congress next session so I am pretty sure that means he will take the Libertarian's presidential nomination. (I agree he has zero chance of winning the GOP one) My hope is enough of his hardcore supporters stick with him and he gets the percentage needed to make the debates. (Though my guess is even if he was at like 20% that Romney/Perry and Obama will figure out a way to exclude him) This is will assure an Obama win (and at least another 2-4 years of somne gridlock) or a Perot like rise when people realize that there is an alternative to the crap these parties have been spewing. My real hope would be that Obama switches his views on a few positions like endless war and the drug war and corporate welfare. Fuck Republicans if they don't nominate him and get mad when he "steals" votes.
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Old 09-23-2011, 01:05 PM   #653
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He's won multiple polls in New Jersey recently. He's winning the majority of national polls among Republicans. He's polled better against Obama than every other GOP candidate so far.

I am a pretty avid supporter and don't think any of this is true.
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Old 09-23-2011, 01:16 PM   #655
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RealClearPolitics - President Obama vs. Republican Candidates

Generic Republican 44.0-Obama 43.5
Obama 47.2-Romney 44.2
Obama 49.5-Perry 41.3
Obama 51.5-Bachmann 37.0
Obama 50.6-Palin 39.4
Obama 45.0-Paul 41.7
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Old 09-23-2011, 01:19 PM   #656
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Looks like some embellishment.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Can't find New Jersey on there after a quick look.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...andidates.html

Beats all other GOP save Romney.
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Old 09-23-2011, 01:24 PM   #657
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Does that affect his voting record? Is that remotely relevant to whether or not he brings a consistent, Constitutional, small federal government approach?

He's wrong on the topic, but I don't see how it makes the smallest difference in his approach to government.

If he has a problem with proven scientific findings, then yes that is a huge red flag and can/could/may have, influence/d his approach to government. Sorry, but, I have a very strong zero tolerance policy when it comes to things that are dismissed by people that purposely choose not to educate themselves, yet, want to lead this country.

Admittedly, there are some things that he is very rational about, unfortunately, the evolution thing is weighted heavier in my decision making than it is, say, than how he touts a small federal government. So, I will continue to ridicule him on internet forums he will never see and will never even consider voting for him until he at the very least changes his stance on evolution. This is one of the main reasons why Huntsman is my GOP favorite at the moment, plus, he's been the most rational and least hyperbolic of all the others in my opinion.
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Old 09-23-2011, 02:02 PM   #658
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Does that affect his voting record? Is that remotely relevant to whether or not he brings a consistent, Constitutional, small federal government approach?

He's wrong on the topic, but I don't see how it makes the smallest difference in his approach to government.

Fastball down the middle...

It speaks to his general intelligence. I don't want somebody with a level of general intelligence that low with any sort of power whatsoever.
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Old 09-23-2011, 02:21 PM   #659
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When push came to shove, Ron Paul paid about 1.25 million per delegate in 2008. So he'd only need to raise about 1.5 billion to win the nomination. Exactly why should anyone take him seriously? If he actually wins something meaningful, someone wake me up. Otherwise, feel free to set your money on fire supporting him.
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Old 09-23-2011, 02:46 PM   #662
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He's a medical doctor. I'll take his intelligence over yours, mine, and many others even if I disagree with him on an issue that doesn't directly affect public policy.

Really? I wouldn't.
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Old 09-23-2011, 02:49 PM   #663
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Fastball down the middle...

It speaks to his general intelligence. I don't want somebody with a level of general intelligence that low with any sort of power whatsoever.

Sadly your theory would eliminate all of the candidates. Would love an athiest candidate but your litmus test is pretty specific on which things you consider low intelligence (not beleiving in evolution) and which don't matter. (beleiving in the magical powers of Jesus) I realize some of the candidates pander to votes and some really believe the junk but please tell me how you differentiate between Romney and Paul and Obama? Because you like Obama its ok that he claims Jesus Christ will come and save the world?
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Old 09-23-2011, 03:03 PM   #664
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Seems to support that Paul is really a player in all of this

Seems more likely to support the notion that there's an organized disinformation campaign meant to try to keep the batshit insane son of a bitch in the race so that D's can crossover, nominate him, and guarantee Obama another term.

Even I'd consider voting for Barry over that worthless lunatic.
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Old 09-23-2011, 03:11 PM   #665
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My gold star, lead pipe, can't miss lock of the century...

Paul won't win a single primary.

And it won't be the media's fault. GOP voters don't like him.
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Old 09-23-2011, 03:13 PM   #666
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Even I'd consider voting for Barry over that worthless lunatic.

Ron Paul should run this as an ad on FOFC. It's like your claim that you don't watch the Super Bowl because of Joe Buck. Pointless hyperbole.
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Old 09-23-2011, 03:15 PM   #667
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Notice the Spread column (Obama vs ...):

Romney 3.0
Paul 3.3
Perry 8.2
Huntsman 9
Cain 10
Palin 11.2
Santorum 14
Bachmann 14.5
Gingrich 15.2

So, the most recent polling has Romney running .3 better than Paul against Obama. Despite such a small difference on the site you used, Romney is included in twice as many polls as Paul. Seems to support that Paul is really a player in all of this and much of the media, on both sides of the aisle, is systematically trying to ignore him.

But then also using the same website....

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

I think he is getting an appropriate amount of coverage for someone who is 20 points behind the leader and is only 2 points ahead of Gingrich.
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Old 09-23-2011, 03:15 PM   #668
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My gold star, lead pipe, can't miss lock of the century...

Paul won't win a single primary.

And it won't be the media's fault. GOP voters don't like him.

I forget... Wasn't Rand Paul was one of your locks last year?
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Old 09-23-2011, 03:16 PM   #669
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Sadly your theory would eliminate all of the candidates. Would love an athiest candidate but your litmus test is pretty specific on which things you consider low intelligence (not beleiving in evolution) and which don't matter. (beleiving in the magical powers of Jesus) I realize some of the candidates pander to votes and some really believe the junk but please tell me how you differentiate between Romney and Paul and Obama? Because you like Obama its ok that he claims Jesus Christ will come and save the world?

Valid point. I know we've been down this road in PM's before in the past too.

Evolution is settled science - I guess I consider it different than "religious belief." (even though I recognize that that religious belief will color their actions)

But yes, I'd love an athiest president too.
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Old 09-23-2011, 03:17 PM   #670
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Even I'd consider voting for Barry over that worthless lunatic.

I would vote for Romney over Paul in a heartbeat and would consider some of the other non-Bachmann GOP'ers.
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Old 09-23-2011, 03:19 PM   #671
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I forget... Wasn't Rand Paul was one of your locks last year?

No. I thought out of KY, NV, DE, CT and FL the GOP would lose enough winnable races to cost them the Senate due to extreme nominees. CT was always favored to go Dem, but the GOP could have won all of them with more mainstream candidates.
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Old 09-23-2011, 03:20 PM   #672
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But then also using the same website....

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - 2012 Republican Presidential Nomination

I think he is getting an appropriate amount of coverage for someone who is 20 points behind the leader and is only 2 points ahead of Gingrich.

He's not behind. He's just drafting, waiting to make his move.
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Old 09-23-2011, 03:39 PM   #674
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Valid point. I know we've been down this road in PM's before in the past too.

Evolution is settled science - I guess I consider it different than "religious belief." (even though I recognize that that religious belief will color their actions)

But yes, I'd love an athiest president too.

Fair enough. I really do dislike the highly religious beliefs of Paul (which I don't think is an act) but he matches me on so many other issues that I live with it. He really doesn't seem like he would let it be a major part of his platform, hell he was one of a handful of GOP candidates that had the principles to take the freedom of religion side on the whole NYC Mosque controversy. But I do sit and shake my head when he talks evolution after he went through years of medical school to become a doctor.
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Old 09-23-2011, 04:12 PM   #675
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An eternal universe with no starting point was settled science, then a Belgian Catholic priest named Georges Lemaître proved that to be wrong. The speed of light being the fastest mode of travel was settled science, and the published discovery of the speed of neutrinos, just yesterday, brings that into question.

Evolution is a very strongly supported scientific framework, but its details (in certain areas) still have quite a bit to be uncovered and proven/disproven. It's perfectly valid to question things like the missing links between certain jumps. That, despite how the argument is framed at the popular level, does not necessarily mean a lack of belief that it is the right framework from which to understand the natural world.

The scientific community would do itself a huge favor if they referred to evolution as a framework and they returned to framing research in terms of trying to disprove, instead of prove, theories.

Ugh. There is so much wrong with this part of your post, but, this isn't the place for me to bitch about it. So, I'll leave it at that.
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Old 09-23-2011, 04:19 PM   #676
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Ron Paul should run this as an ad on FOFC. It's like your claim that you don't watch the Super Bowl because of Joe Buck. Pointless hyperbole.

Actually not.

Obama is evil, I'm convinced of that ... but evil can be defeated.
Paul on the other hand is batshit crazy & that's actually harder to combat.
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Old 09-23-2011, 04:23 PM   #677
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Rick Perry trips on some words. Lol
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Old 09-24-2011, 02:04 AM   #678
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Evolution is a very strongly supported scientific framework, but its details (in certain areas) still have quite a bit to be uncovered and proven/disproven. It's perfectly valid to question things like the missing links between certain jumps. That, despite how the argument is framed at the popular level, does not necessarily mean a lack of belief that it is the right framework from which to understand the natural world.

The first time I read this I understood your point, the second time I used it to manipulate someone. The third time it made no sense or it just didn't seem relevant, either way, you should be punished for writing such dangerous and unclear things.
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Old 09-24-2011, 05:19 PM   #679
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Considering the far left of the Dems are currently looking for a token candidate to run in the primaries against Obama, and that several major players in the Republican party is hunting for someone else to run, I think very few are happy with the choices as they stand.
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Old 09-27-2011, 03:05 PM   #680
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This is funny as hell. Really hits its stride around the minute mark.

http://
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Old 10-04-2011, 11:23 AM   #681
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Perry is at 38% to get the nomination right now at InTrade.

I wonder if now is the time to sell high. He's the Golden Boy/Savior/Teastablishment candidate that can do and has done no wrong.

I can't help but think that, even if he ends up winning the nomination, his numbers will go down a bit as the attacks start to come in. Or if Palin enters the race. Or when a camera catches him eating his boogers backstage at a campaign rally. Or when any one of the dozens of semi-unpredictable things happens that will cause people to re-evaluate him.

Seems like a chance to short-sell high and get out when he dips.

Perry at 19.4% at Intrade now.
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Old 10-04-2011, 11:27 AM   #682
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With the caveat that his team has said nothing and the governor himself has yet to speak - and could say something different - sources tell POLITICO Gov. Chris Christie isn't launching a presidential campaign.

We've also heard from multiple sources that he's not running.
Two sources said he has started letting people know in advance of his press conference, with a truncated window.

Chris Christie 2012 not a go, sources report - Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Martin - POLITICO.com
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Old 10-04-2011, 11:32 AM   #683
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So how many times in the last two weeks is Christie not running? That dead horse is getting tired of getting beat to death.
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Old 10-04-2011, 11:39 AM   #684
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With the caveat that his team has said nothing and the governor himself has yet to speak - and could say something different - sources tell POLITICO Gov. Chris Christie isn't launching a presidential campaign.

We've also heard from multiple sources that he's not running.
Two sources said he has started letting people know in advance of his press conference, with a truncated window.

Chris Christie 2012 not a go, sources report - Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Martin - POLITICO.com

He's clearly not running at all. Have you seen how fucking fat he is?

He might waddle for the Presidency I suppose.
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Old 10-04-2011, 11:43 AM   #685
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Perry at 19.4% at Intrade now.

Nate Silver was suggesting it would be good to bet against the field and buy both Perry and Romney. It's getting close to time for Perry to be added to the field. Romney is at 58% right now and I think that's low.
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Old 10-04-2011, 11:53 AM   #686
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He's clearly not running at all. Have you seen how fucking fat he is?

He might waddle for the Presidency I suppose.

I'm embarrassed, but I laughed.

I just can't see someone that large representing our country. It's certainly not a beauty contest, but I don't know if I want someone being the face of our country that has that big of a weight problem.
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Old 10-04-2011, 11:56 AM   #687
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I'm embarrassed, but I laughed.

I just can't see someone that large representing our country. It's certainly not a beauty contest, but I don't know if I want someone being the face of our country that has that big of a weight problem.

See...I feel that now that I've lost 85lbs and slimmed myself down to a good level (although I could stand to get my body fat % lower still), I'm justified in calling out fat people. To their faces, if necessary (although not in a cruel way).

I agree with you though. But if you think about it in a twisted way - it actually make more sense than a person that's in-shape, at least as far as being a representative. Since we're one big obese country.

But yeah - not since the pre-WWII days have we had "large presidents." And I don't think we're headed back that way.
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Old 10-04-2011, 12:27 PM   #688
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I'm embarrassed, but I laughed.

I just can't see someone that large representing our country. It's certainly not a beauty contest, but I don't know if I want someone being the face of our country that has that big of a weight problem.

This guy: William Howard Taft - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 10-04-2011, 01:15 PM   #689
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Christie's weight wouldn't be the problem. His statements about immigration, gay marriage, Muslims, gun control, and bipartisanship would kill him in the primary. The only reason people think they want him to run is that he can be a bastard.

With Perry getting all but buried by his immigration statements and the Gardisil mandate, Cain is really gaining. I wonder if his statements on Perry's ranch and the blowback from Limbaugh et al will bury him as not conservative enough? Who's going to be left standing as the true conservative choice against Romney?
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Old 10-04-2011, 01:49 PM   #690
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Yeah, I think if Christie were to join the race, he steals a lot of Romney votes away more than he gains Perry votes.

He is certainly the most appealing candidate for the general election, and 2016 might be the right timing for him.
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Old 10-04-2011, 01:51 PM   #691
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He's clearly not running at all. Have you seen how fucking fat he is?

That caught me off guard...

I think a fat person could become President. It will take a personality that even bigger than the person...but I think it could happen. Christie has it...somebody like Mike Huckabee a few years back, not so much.
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Old 10-04-2011, 02:01 PM   #692
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If Sarah Palin intends to run, there is no better time for her to step in than right now.
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Old 10-04-2011, 02:04 PM   #693
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If Sarah Palin intends to run, there is no better time for her to step in than right now.

Yep. All of the conservative options have flamed out in one way or another. I don't know if she could win the nomination, but I have no doubt she'd step into a two person race against Romney.
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Old 10-04-2011, 05:37 PM   #694
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Would she be able to withstand all the scrutiny and criticism that she would receive if she threw her beehive hairdo into the ring? She's already hypersensitive enough as it is with the 'lame stream' media. She thought it was bad when she was just running for VP...she ain't seen nothing yet.
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Old 10-04-2011, 07:51 PM   #695
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Ummmm.... what the frack?

Herman Cain rises, Rick Perry slides in new CBS News poll - Political Hotsheet - CBS News

I think someone said watch out for Cain. Think it might be time to consider him a contender. Won't win, but is going to make some big noise.
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Old 10-04-2011, 08:17 PM   #696
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Could be a smart play by Republicans... The whole, "See, we don't hate Obama because he is black, we hate him because he is liberal!" thing.
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Old 10-05-2011, 06:42 PM   #697
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Palin out.
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Old 10-05-2011, 07:09 PM   #698
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What a shocker. She needs to not get walluped again (which she would, in a GOP primary) in order to maintain her brand and her cult of true believers and continue to make money (which is fine - its just her real reasoning, and pretending otherwise is absurd).
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Old 10-05-2011, 07:13 PM   #699
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Ummmm.... what the frack?

Herman Cain rises, Rick Perry slides in new CBS News poll - Political Hotsheet - CBS News

I think someone said watch out for Cain. Think it might be time to consider him a contender. Won't win, but is going to make some big noise.

I think he's the flavor of the moment (a la Bachmann, a la Trump). Won't last. This is a 2-person election - Romney v. Perry - and the great GOP hope round the corner isn't coming (Rubio or Christie or Ryan).

Question for folk: Something I don't have a handle on, because I don't live in that world (and I can't get a good read on from the blogosphere, left or right) - how much will Romney's religion hurt him with the evangilical vote (I'm talking GOP primary and general election here)? I mean, is it really an issue for people, or more of an issue for the talking heads?
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Old 10-05-2011, 07:28 PM   #700
SteveMax58
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Originally Posted by Crapshoot View Post
Question for folk: Something I don't have a handle on, because I don't live in that world (and I can't get a good read on from the blogosphere, left or right) - how much will Romney's religion hurt him with the evangilical vote (I'm talking GOP primary and general election here)? I mean, is it really an issue for people, or more of an issue for the talking heads?

I'm probably not nearly conservative enough to give a good personal perspective, but my gut tells me his religion isn't his problem...its that he comes off as a slimeball executive. And as much as conservatives support principles that can appear to some to be of benefit to corporations(arguments aside)...I don't think they actually like slimeball CEOs.

Reminds me of what was said in the 2008 primary something like..."Huckabee reminds you of the guy that hired you, while Romney reminds you of the guy that fired you." Or something like that, anyway.
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