Werewolf CXXIV - Watchmen (Game Over, Wolves Win!, endpost:704)

[Danny]

The numbers do make sense with the path we are going down. At this point its 2 for EF and 1 for Hoops. I'm going to be looking through old posts and votes before I make my decision, but vibe has me leaning towards EagleFan at this point. Not 100% committed that way though.

[Danny]

Oh and on the starting wolves discussion, you guys pretty much covered it, but I really can't see there being only two and no Ozymandius

[Danny]

Day 1
Autumn - 6 - (PF 82, CR 95, ntn 100, DV 111, DT 154, EF 157)
EF - 4- (hoops 92, saldana 97, Lathum 104, Danny 112)
Danny - 2 - (Autumn 117, Thomkal 123)
hoopsguy - 1 - (jeff 89)

No Vote: J23

Day 2
ntn - 6 - (DV 194, CR 197, J23 227, PF 238, saldana 241, Lathum 244)
saldana - 5 - (EF 195, jeff 199, Danny 223, hoops 232, DT 234)
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)

Day 3:
DT - 5- (DV 306, jeff 355, J23 360, saldana 363, EF 364)
EF - 3- (hoops 313, CR 324, DT 345)
CR - 1 - (Danny 326)
saldana - 1 - (PF 358)

[The Jackal]

EF - 3 - (CR 634, hoops 635, jeff 636)
CR - 1- (J23 637)
hoops - 1- (EF 646)

[hoopsguy]

Day 1 - Saldana had his vote on EF, J23 did not vote

Day 2 - me, EF, and Danny all had votes on Saldana so that isn't a great help in sifting through the candidates.

Day 3 - I had vote on EF, Saldana had vote on DT, Danny had vote on CR.


I'll want to pull up the voting logs (including unvote stuff) to see if there is something more to learn here.

[Danny]

Looking at the first three days, the first thing that sticks out is that all three of the cunning suspects have some evidence in their favor. EF has the fact that Saldana voted him day 1. I had a key 3rd vote on Saldana day 2 when it was 2-2-2 and Hoops had a key vote on Saldana day 2 as well.

I didn't include yesterdays vote because we all ended up Saldana, but it seemed to be like EF was trying to distract from potentially lynching Saldana more than myself or Hoops.

Overall though, the day that really sticks out to me is day 3 where both J23 and Saldana swung the vote late to DT with EF on the block. I think that's the best objective piece of evidence against any of us three that I am seeing at this point.

[hoopsguy]

#74 - DT votes Hoops 1-0
#78 - Lathum votes Danny 1-1 Hoops/Danny
#81 - Autumn votes J23 1-1-1 Hoops/Danny/J23
#82 - PF votes Autumn 1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny/J23/Autumn
#84 - Hoops votes DT 1-1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny/J23/Autumn/DT
#85 - Thomkal votes Jeff 1-1-1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny/J23/Autumn/DT/Jeff
#89 - Jeff votes Hoops 2-1-1-1-1-1 Hoops over Danny/J23/Autumn/DT/Jeff
#90 - EF votes Danny 2-2-1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny over J23/Autumn/DT/Jeff
#91 - Hoops unvotes DT, votes EF 2-2-1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny over J23/Autumn/Jeff/EF
#94 - EF unvotes Danny, votes Hoops 3-1-1-1-1-1 Hoops over J23/Autumn/Jeff/EF/Danny
#95 - CR votes Autumn, 3-2-1-1-1-1 Hoops over Autumn over J23/Jeff/EF/Danny
#97 - Saldana votes EF, 3-2-2-1-1-1 Hoops over Autumn/EF over J23/Jeff/Danny
#100 - NTN votes Autumn 3-3-2-1-1-1 Hoops/Autumn over EF over J23/Jeff/Danny
#104 - Lathum unvotes Danny, votes EF 3-3-3-1-1 Hoops/Autumn/EF over J23/Jeff
#109 - DT unvotes Hoops 3-3-2-1-1 Autumn/EF over Hoops over J23/Jeff
#111 - DV votes Autumn 4-3-2-1-1 Autumn over EF over Hoops over J23/Jeff
#112 - Danny votes EF 4-4-2-1-1 Autumn/EF over Hoops over J23/Jeff
#117 - Autumn unvotes J23, votes Danny 4-4-2-1-1 Autumn/EF over Hoops over Jeff/Danny
#123 - Thomkal unvotes Jeff, votes Danny 4-4-2-2 Autumn/EF over Hoops/Danny
#126 - EF unvotes Hoops, votes Danny 4-4-3-1 Autumn/EF over Danny over Hoops
#152 - DT votes Autumn, 5-4-3-1 Autumn over EF over Danny over Hoops
#157 - EF unvotes Danny, votes Autumn 6-4-2-1 Autumn over EF over Hoops

Saldana put his vote on EF, moving him up to a 3-2 deficit. It could have been a case of wolves being too clever voting for each other, but it was risky with J23 not being around and Saldana never moving the vote away. I'm not sure they do that to their cunning wolf on Day 1.

Going to look to see if Saldana had any more posts close to the deadline.

[Danny]

Hoops using that yellow may sway my vote

[jeff061]

Ha. Yeah, yellow is pretty horrible on this theme.

[hoopsguy]

Heh, let me know what color I should use instead. Just trying to come up with a neutral color for the people under consideration.

Also, Saldana's vote post was his last of the day on D1. So if EF is a wolf he was feeling very, very lonely on D1 with one wolf stuck voting for him and another who did not show up for the day, with no idea if the cultist was in the game.

[hoopsguy]

#191 - Lathum votes EF 1-0
#193 - PF votes CR 1-1 EF/CR
#194 - DV votes NTN 1-1-1 EF/CR/NTN
#195 - EF votes Saldana 1-1-1-1 EF/CR/NTN/Saldana
#197 - CR votes NTN 2-1-1-1 NTN over EF/CR/Saldana
#199 - Jeff votes Saldana 2-2-1-1 NTN/Saldana over EF/CR
#208 - Saldana votes EF 2-2-2-1 NTN/Saldana/EF over CR
#214 - NTN votes Lathum 2-2-2-1-1 NTN/Saldana/EF over CR/Lathum
#223 - Danny votes Saldana 3-2-2-1-1 Saldana over NTN/EF over CR/Lathum
#227 - J23 votes NTN 3-3-2-1-1 Saldana/NTN over EF over CR/Lathum
#232 - Hoops votes Saldana 4-3-2-1-1 Saldana over NTN over EF over CR/Lathum
#234 - DT votes Saldana 5-3-2-1-1 Saldana over NTN over EF over CR/Lathum
#236 - PF unvotes CR 5-3-2-1 Saldana over NTN over EF over Lathum
#238 - PF votes NTN 5-4-2-1 Saldana over NTN over EF over Lathum
#239 - Lathum unvotes EF, votes Saldana 6-4-1-1 Saldana over NTN over Lathum/EF
#241 - Saldana unvotes EF, votes NTN 6-5-1 Saldana over NTN over Lathum
#244 - Lathum unvotes Saldana, votes NTN 6-5-1 NTN over Saldana over Lathum

Danny and I both put tough, tough votes on Saldana. EF put first vote on him when there were already votes on 3 others. I'm going to now see when last posts were from everyone on this day.

[Danny]

But did the wolves have any idea J23 was not going to show up? I agree that putting that vote on the cunning was risky and is part of the case supporting not voting EF. Unfortunately I think all three of us have case supporting and not supporting us which makes this a tough decision.

[Danny]

And that teal works ok

[Danny]

I was just looking as well and both EF and I were around near that day 2 deadline.

[hoopsguy]

Yep, everyone posted in the last 45 minutes leading up to the deadline. Sucks, because this is the vote that was supposed to help provide some info.

Can't see the wolves thinking that trading the wolf seer for a villager (in their eyes with NTN) was a good play. And I can't see how they would have counted on Lathum + PF to save Saldana. I'll probably take another look at this when I get home to see if I can make any sense of it.

[jeff061]

I'm going to continue to follow what you guys say, just in case. But between the shift to J23 yesterday, the reveal as hunter and a couple lynch escapes...it's tough to look at others based off of early vote patterns. I personally just don't put much stock into that type of metric.

[EagleFan]

It's liking watching Andy Reid try to use timeouts...

[Danny]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

It's liking watching Andy Reid try to use timeouts...

?

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, hoops made the 4th vote on saldana, not the 5th. I would have felt better with him on the 5th vote, as that would have been a ballsy move for a wolf to make. The 4th, not as much so, because saldana still had his vote to move. I still lean to EF, but that makes it more iffy. It would still be a fairly bold move for a cunning hoops to vote his fellow wolf up one in the vote with less than an hour to go.

[EagleFan]

No late movement by the wolves on day one. Classic sign of villager versus villager. Odd that hoops is overlooking that and has been one of the vocal ones against me since my reveal.

My role is a possible game killer for them right now and they know it so they will push heavily to get me out. The first time I remember seeing a hunter role possibly come into play.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

?

Watching my fellow villagers have a win in their grasp and screwing it up.

[Danny]

oh lol

[saldana]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'm an arsenal fan, you two can beat each other up for all I care!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

The only thing worse than an arsenal fan to be this weekend was a ManU fan.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by saldana

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

The only thing worse than an arsenal fan to be this weekend was a ManU fan.

vote saldana

[EagleFan]

I'm out for a while, will be back later. Hopefully better judgement prevails.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by saldana

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

The only thing worse than an arsenal fan to be this weekend was a ManU fan.

Actually now that the invincible talk for the stupid red devils is gone I've already forgotten that they lost after losing their best defender, getting a red card, and giving up two penalties. Plus the flyers won while I was there, so I don't care!

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Numbers to think about...

6-2 now...

If you go vote me out it will be 3-2 after the morning and then you have to nail the cunning or it's game over.

6-2 now and if we vote hoops out it will either be 4-1 or 3-2. Obviously with it 4-1 we win as we have J23 next.

If it's 3-2 we can still win by voting J23 out. If he brutals me it will be 2-1 against Danny and game over for the village. If he brutals the "lovers" it will be 1-1 and my role comes into play, a no win situation for them.

I want to work through your scenario here (you = hunter)
Today: lynch a villager, moves to 5-2
Tonight: wolves take lovers, moves to 3-2
Tomorrow: lynch J23, he brutals EF, moves to 2-1 (can't take out lovers twice like you outlined)
Tomorrow night: night kill, moves to 1-1 and game is over

I feel a bit better about voting for you because I don't think you would be in bluffing mode if you had the role. I think you would try to survive the day, but not misrepresenting the data in an effort to paint yourself as the savior.

[hoopsguy]

If/when PF arrives, I would encourage him to prepare his conditional duke order again - it takes out the element of wolf manipulation of the vote.

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to try and run through scenarios for if this lynch goes badly.

We lynch villager, making score 5-2.
Now who do the wolves kill?
- if they know that the Lovers are unguardable, per rule, they take that kill and make the score 3-2, leaving seer, duke, brutal wolf, cunning wolf, and vanilla villager (or hunter, the wolves know validity of this claim).
- if they took a shot at Manhatten last night then they probably shy away from the lovers tonight, leaving themselves in a 4-2 position regardless of who they kill.

Latter is much better for us, as we could take out the brutal tomorrow to put it to 3-1, night kill makes it 2-1. Their choices for night kills would be severely constrained since they would have to leave the other seer target alive.

The wolves will know who they attempted to kill last night. I don't think PF holding this info to himself (or if he didn't block, and wolves goofed up over the long weekend) benefits the village. Someone correct me if I'm wrong on this and I'm missing out on something where disclosing this data in the thread is bad.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - obviously, if PF did not block a night kill yesterday then he should not divulge who he protected. That would be tipping info we don't want the wolves to know.

[Danny]

I agree, wolves know what happened, no disadvantage to pf making sure the village does too

[Danny]

Alright.

Vote EagleFan

This is not an easy vote because EF has Saldana's vote on him day 1 and a lack of late movement that day on his side. But Hoops also has his key day 2 vote on Saldana.

My reasoning for EF is more based on day 3 where J23 and Saldana helped a late swing over to DT. At that point in the game the wolves had an outed seer and it was looking like it was going to go 5-3 with no outed wolves. I think at that point they wanted to make sure they didn't lose a wolf and only needed either one more villager lynch or a double villager kill / brutal to win. I also get more of a bad vibe from EF than Hoops

[Danny]

I'm out for a little bit, but should be back 45 minutes to an hour before deadline.

[EagleFan]

When I come up clean tonight look at hoops tomorrow. You let him lead you down the path like good little sheep.

[EagleFan]

Might as well go out voting a known wolf.

unvote hoops

vote J23

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

When I come up clean tonight look at hoops tomorrow. You let him lead you down the path like good little sheep.

Well actually, I think I've been pretty vocal about you leading me down this path. I can't think of anything Hoops has done to paint you.


Anyways.... .

[jeff061]

Hell, Hoops is really the only guy that's come close to defending you today.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

When I come up clean tonight look at hoops tomorrow. You let him lead you down the path like good little sheep.

I'll feel badly about this if you are a villager. But if you are a wolf I'll take this as your way of saying, "damn you for making life so difficult"

[Coffee Warlord]

After poking through this thread, I have some insightful advice to offer ya'll.

One of the players is a wolf.

Thank you.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Hell, Hoops is really the only guy that's come close to defending you today.

Honestly, I try to wipe away my assumptions almost daily because it is too easy to get stuck in a line of thinking in these games.

If EF does end up being a villager, then one thing that will stick with me is that he had a very inconvenient role reveal in terms of me believing him. That has happened once before in a game where we played, where he was a villager who bluffed at the role I actually held.

I'm more inclined to believe Danny's "vanilla villager" than I am EF's role reveal. That isn't the tipping point in voting for EF over Danny, but it factors into my thinking.

[J23]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Might as well go out voting a known wolf.

unvote hoops

vote J23

I still don't know why you'd vote for me over that impostor seer CR!

You're making a mistake EF!

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Honestly, I try to wipe away my assumptions almost daily because it is too easy to get stuck in a line of thinking in these games.

If EF does end up being a villager, then one thing that will stick with me is that he had a very inconvenient role reveal in terms of me believing him. That has happened once before in a game where we played, where he was a villager who bluffed at the role I actually held.

I'm more inclined to believe Danny's "vanilla villager" than I am EF's role reveal. That isn't the tipping point in voting for EF over Danny, but it factors into my thinking.

I agree. I'll be amazed if he is not a wolf, between the whole Hunter thing(why did he reveal again?) and just bad luck picking yesterday to move off Sal for once and onto the presumable brutal. Too much smoke.

For you and Danny the evidence is basically splitting hairs. Not enough to look in that direction over EF.

[The Jackal]

EF - 4 - (CR 634, hoops 635, jeff 636, Danny 682)
CR - 1- (J23 637)
J23 - 1 - (EF 685)

yet to vote: DV, PF

[The Jackal]

As you head to the guillotine to survey the final results, Dr. Manhattan walks into the room with a notably sad look upon his face.

Without saying a word, he disappears, dropping a picture to the ground. Upon inspection you see that this is a picture of a man wearing the nametag "Dr. Jonathan Osterman", along with his wife Janey. His head is burnt away from the picture.

Dr. Manhattan has left the world! PF was Dr. Manhattan.

[The Jackal]

Deadline has passed.

[Danny]

Huh?

[The Jackal]

The decision has come to rest upon the head of EF. He is quite incensed as he is led to the guillotine, swearing that you will be sorry for what you have done.

Chop.

EF was Nelson Gardner (Captain Metropolis)!

[jeff061]

Hoping theres a second part.

Sounds like they figured out how to get right of Manhattan? Which messes with our numbers.

[The Jackal]

(Advancing through the night, as no one can stop the inevitable)

[Danny]

Damn it, Hoops...