Werewolf CXXVII -- The Godfather, VILLAGERS WIN

[CrimsonFox]

Well that didn't happen though. And we didn't know about Sonny Corleone. NOw that we know Sonny was a wolf, it's an educated guess that he is the only "Good OR Bad Guy" that was actually bad and that both Clemenza and Tessio are villagers. BUt neither could know that at the start of the game, so they wouldn't trust each other PMwise.

[CrimsonFox]

The only PMers that have both their partners still alive is Fredo and Moe. Weird it says Fredo can PM with Moe but it doesn't say Moe can PM with Fredo. Was this accidently missed, Pass?

Cause if those two can PM each other, then they should probably know that they are both villagers now. That is IF there are only 5 wolves and the 4 wolf badguys are all in play.

[Narcizo]

Avoiding what looks like fluff this is pretty much all we get from Lathum (I believe him about work cutting into his available time)

Originally Posted by Lathum

vote tyketime

pretty random but IIRC he dupped everyone as a wolf a few games ago. Need to get a vote in as the deadline is right in the middle of my work day

In response to tyke saying that he wasn't going to vote day one

Originally Posted by Lathum

not a very helpful strategy, makes me feel pretty good about my vote.

After the day one lynch

Originally Posted by Lathum

all 3 are west coasters...

I also have to wonder if a wolf wouldn't miss the deadline on purpose considering it is a pretty defensable miss

Originally Posted by Lathum

OK, so all 4 missed voters happen to show up within an hour or so of the deadline. Interesting.

Reasoning for day two vote - the most we've seen from Lathum all game is that he thought that one of the missed voters day one was a wolf. I don't necessarily think that automatically means that none of them are wolves but it bumps them up a fair bit in terms of trust.

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm not ready to jump all over the Mau voters yet. The fact of it is you will get scrutiny for going elsewhere with your vote and having it be "meaningless" so you are damned if you do and damned if you dont. I'm willing to give credit and a pass to someone like Sal who at least went out on a limb D1 and didn't bury his vote.

Originally Posted by Lathum

I need to get a vote in just in case I get busy before deadline

Vote Crimsonfox

I think I was pretty vocal about voting one of the non voters yesterday and he is the only one in contention right now.

Truth be told I would rather go with DV, nothing more than a gut feeling on that one.

Originally Posted by Lathum

My reasoning is I think it would be very easy for someone to miss the vote yesterday and use the excuse of an early deadline. Surely not all 4 of them are wolves, but I think it is possible a wolf would incorporate this strategy.

I then don't find it a coincidence that all 4 vote missers show up within an hour of the vote. All things equal I don't suspect one more than the other and would be happy to switch my vote if there can be an argument made for someone else, but right now I want to cast a meaningful vote.

Shifts from CrimsonFox to Saldana. People are seeing this as a switch to save Jeff, but I don't think that it's necessarily the case. I think it could easily be a case of Lathum being consistent with his actions as a villager and prefering Sal out of the game compared to Jeff.

Originally Posted by Lathum

well, looks like my vote will be meaningless so I'll change. I realy want to look closer at the quiet D1 players and would be open to moving to one of them if others feel like that is a good play.

A few people have made mention of me being quiet. The deadline is rough for me. I work 8-5 PST, then go home and play with my son, get him to bed, etc... and can'tr get on until between 10-11 EST. My life is just to hectic to be the vocal player I once was.

I don't want a meaningless vote so

Unvote CF
Vote Saldana


I think his alligence will tell us a alot about tyke and McKerny. It would be really easy for a wolf to cast a late vote that pushes someone further ahead and claim it was to protect against a tie when really it was to protect another wolf.

Covered this bit already, around the deadline. Adds quite a bit of trust to JAG

Originally Posted by Lathum

Jags late vote to pull things to within one make me very scared

Originally Posted by Lathum

I dunno what it means yet, but I guess if it is villager-villager it makes your vote suspect since we know there are people in the game whos votes count double

The problem with Lathum is that even when he's not paying full attention he's careful enough as a wolf not to reveal too much even when there's no heat on him.

Bascially this makes me more trusting of tyke, CrimsonFox and to a lesser extent JAG. To an even lesser extent Darth Vilus och Jackal.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

And I"m sorry I may be missing something? WHY is it obvious that Clemenza HAD to pass it to Tessio? I thought it was possible for either to be a wolf. That would be a reason NOT to pass it to them.

I didn't say he "had" to but it seemed to be the consensus at the time that it would be the right play to make. However I think it's very possible that he forgot to send in an order so they were sent out at random. Didn't think of that before.

[CrimsonFox]

I like Lathum's comment about "I'm voting Crimson Fox but I'd rather vote for DV". That's a very sly statement adding more qualifiers and detail. And everyone will likely forget about it and just look at the vote. I agree it might put a LITTLE trust on DV but if Lathum is that good a wolf he might get away with saying that about a wolf, since the proof is in the vote.

The other statement I see used a lot, "I don't want my vote to be meaningless". I've seen it used by Lathum here as a wolf but also by saldana as a villager. So I don't know if it really means anything. But I keep noticing it sometimes being the only reason given for a vote and it rubs me the wrong way. mAInly because it doesn't seem to mean anything.

[bhlloy]

I actually think CF is probably correct and clemenza just didn't get day 1 orders in on time. The chances of tessio being a wolf are the same as the chance you are going to randomly pass an item to a wolf on day 1 and after that it's a clear losing proposition. The better play is to hope tessio is a villager but it looks like it may have worked out regardless

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

The other statement I see used a lot, "I don't want my vote to be meaningless". I've seen it used by Lathum here as a wolf but also by saldana as a villager. So I don't know if it really means anything. But I keep noticing it sometimes being the only reason given for a vote and it rubs me the wrong way. mAInly because it doesn't seem to mean anything.

"Throwaway" votes were considered very wolfy last time I played. But, I guess, that led to wolves not doing them so much any more. Anyone who doesn't want to be lynched (ie everyone) is going to be wary about being seen as casting a meaningless vote - just the same as they are going to be worried about not voting. I don't think you can read too much into it.

You can question the business of creating a two-horse race which creates the concern that your vote is meaningless. But that's another kettle of halibut.

[tyketime]

I gotta say - I posted on the Off Topic board yesterday about this, but this Database Error connectivity issue is becoming a big problem. It was 8:13 when I lost connection, and only now getting back in 1.5 hours later. Unfortunately, I have a presentation I'm preparing to make this afternoon, so my time is a bit more limited today. I've already lost one post. I'm just saying... [/rant]

[Narcizo]

Aye. Kinda sucks when this sort of time is pretty much the time I can be most active.

[jeff061]

Well honestly I'd recommend against the go after 2 villagers tonight. If you have to lynch me, let me be the only one. Something I will certainly be arguing and strongly recommending against. Lynching me would be bad, potentially lynching another one of us and killing me would be disastrous. That's a 3 way swing.

We got a wolf night 2, we seem to be in a good position. Pushing our luck and nailing 2 villagers is not the right move when we are not up against a wall.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

The only PMers that have both their partners still alive is Fredo and Moe. Weird it says Fredo can PM with Moe but it doesn't say Moe can PM with Fredo. Was this accidently missed, Pass?

Cause if those two can PM each other, then they should probably know that they are both villagers now. That is IF there are only 5 wolves and the 4 wolf badguys are all in play.

Yeah, they can both PM with each other. Although, it'd be interesting to have roles like that, where one can PM the other, but the other can't PM back. If I end up doing it, hopefully it'd be Lathum and ntndeacon in those roles!

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by tyketime

I gotta say - I posted on the Off Topic board yesterday about this, but this Database Error connectivity issue is becoming a big problem. It was 8:13 when I lost connection, and only now getting back in 1.5 hours later. Unfortunately, I have a presentation I'm preparing to make this afternoon, so my time is a bit more limited today. I've already lost one post. I'm just saying... [/rant]

Yeah, I'm tethered to my phone. Thought it was just my crappy phone being slow until the errors started coming.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

Well I'm going to call it a night guys, i have some schoolwork to finish.

Vote tyketime

For the reasons that I've already given and the fact that I don't want it to be a runaway, those don't really tell us that much. if JAG wants to kill jeff there really isn't anything we can do about it (other then telling him not too) and it would be more beneficial for us to look at other candidates if Jeff will be killed anyway.

If JAG decides not to then it's best to just let the lynch go the way it will go.

Really Darth? I know you checked out last night. There's been some great analysis since then. There have been a few folks commenting that my stock has risen based on previous voting patterns. And there are certainly others who we could present as candidates that would give us more information. I hope you get a chance to read thru the posts so you can reconsider.

[jeff061]

I agree, Tyke's fallen much lower on my list. Yet Darth seems to be picking up some heat even before casting that glare towards Tyke.

[jeff061]

I'll be honest. I really want to vote Darth right now. But between me being in the lead and Eagle fingering me as well as Darth(gives me some pause), I'm hesitant to be the one to start down that path.

[Autumn]

I haven't been able to load the page all morning. I'm going to try to catch up, but given how iffy the site seems to be for me, not sure how long it will take.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Bingo! How do we know JAG isn't a wolf. Let's assume he is. He doesn't know who handed him the items so if he uses the gun/canoli on a villager without mentioning it he's going to draw an awful lot of heat. He could pass them around to his wolf buddies but then he can't use them and he can't pass both to one person. If there are only three wolves left (which seems the most likely state of affairs, I'll be very annoyed if there's more). If he is a wolf then the wolves won't be able to use the combo tomorrow, as he has to pass it on to two different people, so the next time they can use it (assuming that no more wolves are killed in the interim) would be at the end of day five. If they lose a wolf before then then the whole scheme could be jeopardy. Meanwhile, if JAG is a wolf the easiest way to get a (fairly) suspicion-free kill is to announce it before hand. It buys trust

After posting about it at first I did come up with a few reason why it might make sense for JAG to make a play like that if he's a wolf, but I do still think he's a villager. I'm going to stick to that thought for now, thinking up too many scenarios where I was wrong is what lead me to the vote switch to saldana last night.

[Narcizo]

Someone asked who I was suspicious off. My initial answer would be EVERYONE but more seriously I have a bit of trust for the people I've mentioned but if pressed I'm most suspicious of I'd EagleFan, mckerney and MartinD. I think there's still plenty of uncertainty and knowing if Jeff is a wolf will certainly help the cause greatly - but if he's a villager we really don't have a whole lot to go on.

EagleFan's play on the first two days was odd and distracting, mckerney's emitting wolfy vibes and his voting hasn't been great (people in glasshouses, casting stones etc etc) ditto MartinD with a sideorder of this "thing" he noticed about Jeff but, for some reason, he hasn't expanded on.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

If we try and track the movement of the gun and the canoli

Peter Clemenza - starts with both

passes gun to CrimsonFox
passes canoli till mckerney

CrimsonFox passes gun to JAG
mckerney passes canoli to JAG

I don't understand why Clemenza didn't pass one of the items to Danny (Tessio), unless he was worried that lots of people saying that he should was a wolf ploy. I presume he handed them out at random then. Seems strange really.

If the Tessio role could be either villager or wolf then Clemenza wouldn't know he could trust Tessio over anyone else though. The other possibility is that he forgot to send in the order on time which results in the item being handed off to someone at random.

[jeff061]

Jag being a wolf crossed my mind, which is why I was curious on the reasons behind him luckily getting both items. But with those items in his hands it makes things complicated.

We know he has them, so he can't really succeed with any shenanigans. If he uses it to kill someone that the villagers havent agreed on(I repeat short of 2 seer reveals he shouldn't use at all), he is and should be the next lynch target.

But so far all I seen towards him is a couple people trusting him, dangerous if they are wrong, but hardly suspicious.

[Narcizo]

Times running away from me - seems that the vote is dependent on whether JAG is set on using the gun. I don't envy him the decision and I don't really know what he should do. But he needs to declare what he plans on doing soon. My feeling is that jeff is a villager but that we need to find out if that's the case to move forward and, honestly, he's as good a candidate as anyone for being the wolf. Need to get a vote out in case I can't return. Don't want to vote Jeff to get runaway votes because then we may just as well put a bullet in his head. Of the people with votes I can onboard the sentiment against bhlloy at the moment. Don't want to vote yet until I can think things through.

[Narcizo]

So I will get back on.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by mckerney

If the Tessio role could be either villager or wolf then Clemenza wouldn't know he could trust Tessio over anyone else though. The other possibility is that he forgot to send in the order on time which results in the item being handed off to someone at random.

Well, no, the reason to pass to Tessio is not because there's any certainty Tessio is a villager, but because Tessio would know who to pass back to. They could pass it back and forth, and keep it out of other hands. If Tessio then didn't pass it back, or used it to kill someone, Clemenza would know he had a wolf on his hands.

That said, there's a lot of ways that doesn't work. Perhaps one of those roles is not in the game. Perhaps the two didn't agree that's a good idea. Perhaps one is a wolf, perhaps one forgot to send in orders.

[bhlloy]

If we assume that Clemenza did miss the day 1 deadline, then we can probably assume feom there that one of DV or jackal are Clemenza. Danny is dead and it can't be CF as he had the items second.

There is a couple of jumps in there and it is hardly solid logic but it may add something down the line if we are stuck for a decision between two people.

[J23]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

If we assume that Clemenza did miss the day 1 deadline, then we can probably assume feom there that one of DV or jackal are Clemenza. Danny is dead and it can't be CF as he had the items second.

I would agree with that logic. I also think that it means that at least one of those 2 is a good guy, since I'm thinking everyone has a role in the game and there are 4 specific bad guy roles left in the game. Another role we need to be careful of that's not a wolf role is Tattaglia, since he kills a random good guy when killed.

We're at 14 players left, and if every role is in the game, we're at 10 villagers to 4 wolves.

As for JAG using the kill ability, I'm fine with doing it, though I'd say use it soon if you're going to in order to give people time to re-vote. Otherwise, we end up without some voting history all the same where people claim they didnt have time to put in a new vote.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

EagleFan's play on the first two days was odd and distracting,

????

What play? I've barely been able to play so I'm not sure what's distracting about that.

[J23]

unvote DV

Given that I think either DV or Jackal is Clemenza, I'm going to do that for now.

[JAG]

Not sure if I made this clear, but the kill does not happen until deadline.

I was hoping to see more chatter about it, but I am going to go ahead and say I am using it on Jeff, so don't waste your votes on him. Hopefully this gives us enough time to talk about other candidates.

[jeff061]

Well guys, prepare for a potential 0-3 night.

[J23]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Well guys, prepare for a potential 0-3 night.

Who do you think is a better candidate Jeff?

[JAG]

Vote Narcizo

If we assume Jeff is a wolf, which I think is a reasonable possibility, he put a relatively early second vote on saldana when Jeff had a vote on him and later when Jeff was leading, he wondered why he was a candidate when it had been clearly stated that the reason was looking at Mau voters. I don't see eye-to-eye with him on good candidates for today. It's not an airtight case but I think he's worth thinking about today.

[EagleFan]

Glad I didn't close the browser yet. Probably the last chance that I get to post before this evening (unless I can sneak away at some point). I'll go with my second option.

unvote jeff

vote Darth Vilus

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by J23

Who do you think is a better candidate Jeff?

For Jag to single handily kill someone without group approval or any solid lead? Nobody. That should not be used when we are already in decent position.

Lynching is something else and a different argument to be had as a group, that's not what I was referring to. If you have to kill me, which I will argue against , it should be by lynching. Not a unilateral kill.

[jeff061]

And as I stated prior to Eagle switching votes, I was leaning towards DV. I just didn't think someone on the block should be the one to lead the charge. Rings hollow.

[J23]

Well, EF had already named DV in his early vote on you as his second candidate, and I had already voted for him at that point. I'm not sure it would have been leading the charge so to speak.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by JAG

Vote Narcizo

He wondered why he was a candidate when it had been clearly stated that the reason was looking at Mau voters. I don't see eye-to-eye with him on good candidates for today. It's not an airtight case but I think he's worth thinking about today.

I'm a candidate because Lathum didn't vote for me when I was in the running and his vote was cast on a villager. This is not lost on me, but it's really just bad luck.

I'll straight up say pinning me for day 1 is stupid logic.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by J23

Well, EF had already named DV in his early vote on you as his second candidate, and I had already voted for him at that point. I'm not sure it would have been leading the charge so to speak.

Yeah, but EF had named(voted I think) me in the same post. Overlooked you I guess. So hell, let's make it official.

Darth Vilus

[Autumn]

Well, I'll certainly be changing my vote if JAG's going to kill Jeff. Well, I'd rather not, and I suppose we could still vote to lynch him and avoid this mess. But then either the gun's still out there to be used, and I would guess the wolves will get it if they kill JAG.

So I'll vote elsewhere but I'm not quite sure where yet. McKerney is my first thought, but that's just vibe, I'll look back and see if the votes point at him also.

[jeff061]

err that's

Vote Darth Vilus

Pass, please make sure not to double count this .

[Autumn]

unvote jeff061

[bhlloy]

Unvote Jeff

Assuming JAG is now set on that course of action.

I'm looking at Darth, MartinD or mckerney with my vote. Darth is just playing a strange drive by game and I'd feel more comfortable if he's gone. We can't get a read on him if he's checking in once a day and voting early and it seems like that's a pretty solid way for a furry to avoid attracting any attention. MartinD is similar, except he hasn't even given a reason why he's never around to the best of my knowledge. Now I think about it Zinto would also fall into this category. mckerney would be the one I think we get the most information from but I also get the impression that he's playing a solid villager game so far.

I do hate just blindly voting for people because they aren't around much but if by halfway through day 3 they haven't participated or contributed anything, it almost seems better to get rid of them now so we won't get to the end and be voting on a bunch of people who have very little history.

[J23]

Originally Posted by jeff061

I'm a candidate because Lathum didn't vote for me when I was in the running and his vote was cast on a villager. This is not lost on me, but it's really just bad luck.

I'll straight up say pinning me for day 1 is stupid logic.

Well, day1 you put the 2nd vote on Mau, who ended up being a villager. At the time, there was one other villager with 2 votes, Tyke, who I believe to be a villager. Those 2 ended up being the run-off candidates by the end of the day. Whether by coincidence or planning, your vote did end up being noteworthy.

[J23]

Originally Posted by J23

Well, day1 you put the 2nd vote on Mau, who ended up being a villager. At the time, there was one other villager with 2 votes, Tyke, who I believe to be a villager. Those 2 ended up being the run-off candidates by the end of the day. Whether by coincidence or planning, your vote did end up being noteworthy.

McKerney also had 2 votes at the time of your vote Jeff, sorry for the oversight.

[JAG]

I'm a bit surprised about mckerney getting suspicion although I admit his late vote shift doesn't look too good. Passing the canoli to a villager elevates him in my book, and in my opinion he practically revealed as one of two roles, but I don't think it would be wise for me to say more than that depending on which it is.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by J23

Well, day1 you put the 2nd vote on Mau, who ended up being a villager. At the time, there was one other villager with 2 votes, Tyke, who I believe to be a villager. Those 2 ended up being the run-off candidates by the end of the day. Whether by coincidence or planning, your vote did end up being noteworthy.

It's stupid logic because it's day one. Not for any of those reasons. No useful logic will ever come out of day 1. That's my belief, always has been.

About the only thing that can come out of day 1 is who a confirmed wolf voted for and even that is flimsy. If I was a wolf I'd just vote another wolf on the first day. Relatively minor risk, huge payoff.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, I'll certainly be changing my vote if JAG's going to kill Jeff. Well, I'd rather not, and I suppose we could still vote to lynch him and avoid this mess. But then either the gun's still out there to be used, and I would guess the wolves will get it if they kill JAG.

So I'll vote elsewhere but I'm not quite sure where yet. McKerney is my first thought, but that's just vibe, I'll look back and see if the votes point at him also.

I'd probably vote for me on vote history, so I don't have any defense there. I think I said yesterday that lynching me wouldn't be the worst move we could make, I'm Appollonia so I'm basically a vanilla villager now. I had no idea mauboy was Michael Corleone, one of the restrictions on PMs was that they weren't allowed at the beginning of the game and I'm not sure when it would have been allowed.

[JAG]

Oh, and that on D1 a known wolf added another candidate rather than voting up one of the two known villagers with a vote on them when mckerney had two votes.

[jeff061]

And I'm not going to be the only one to champion it. I'll stop after this.

I'd recommend people debate Jag's action. We are in a good position and we are risking throwing it away. I don't think we are in any position to take 2 shots in the dark, in our position(wolf day night 2) we should be steadily moving towards the win.

Not making knee jerk moves to throw the edge away. If people oppose him and he does it anyways...well at least you'll have your next target lined up.

Lynch me if you have to, at least we'll only be down 1 villager instead of a potential 2. I'd strongly reccomend looking elsewhere though .

[JAG]

Ok, well I guessed wrong on that role then.

[J23]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

mckerney would be the one I think we get the most information from but I also get the impression that he's playing a solid villager game so far.

What evidence do we have to support Mckerney as a villager? I'm trying to figure out how pressure seemed to disappear from him after being in the running for a bit on day1, despite voting for both villagers that were lynched. Was there something w/ the cannoli or gun or something I'm not recalling?