Werewolf XCVI: The Dark One and The Order of Righteousness (GAME OVER EVIL WINS) - Page 14

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

But you see, it's the certainty some have displayed about the suspicious wolfishness of pro-lynchers that makes it odd.

What you're saying here is that in the absence of much information, we must apply what we do know, no matter how little, to come up with the best decision (and I agree with this), the essence of a Day One style vote, really.

So when so little information is available, doesn't it seem over the top for someone to say with conviction that another person must be a wolf or is likely a wolf, just based on one strategy discussion early in the game?

Hell yes, I agree 100% which is why I advocate jailing them so we can see their allegience. If I really had a strong conviction on someone, I'd say we should lynch them to cut out the middle-man (the king). But as you stated very well above, we have to use what little we have to make a good decision. And at this point, regrettably, it's the only thing of any substance whatsoever I can come up with.

Autumn · 06-09-2009, 09:31 PM

Chief Rum · 06-09-2009, 09:32 PM

Agreed on the role of the jail in potentially building a CoT. If we clear a bunch of people, or at least a few, I mean, they can't all be the Dark One or the cultist.

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 09:33 PM

hmmm. looks like im in the lead... lame! not sure waht to say! bruing it dark evil guy!

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 09:33 PM

And I'm probably being overly vehement about it because I want to make sure that the villagers see the benefit I see in the ruleset and consider that when taking a course of action, and not just lynch as clap put it, to treat the game like a normal game of WW. Because it isn't a normal game.

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 09:34 PM

unvote lynch rendeR
vote lynch Kwhitt`

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 09:34 PM

can i geta vote count?

Chief Rum · 06-09-2009, 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Hell yes, I agree 100% which is why I advocate jailing them so we can see their allegience. If I really had a strong conviction on someone, I'd say we should lynch them to cut out the middle-man (the king). But as you stated very well above, we have to use what little we have to make a good decision. And at this point, regrettably, it's the only thing of any substance whatsoever I can come up with.

I think it cuts both ways. Some believe the strategy of jailing is without a question the best option, to the point they believe those who oppose it are suspicious. Others believe stating anything at all with conviction, including basing suspicion on strategy discussion on Day One.Five (if you know what I mean) is suspicious, because only one set of people in the game at this point are likely to really know anything.

Autumn · 06-09-2009, 09:35 PM

Well, at least you're still safe, KWhit.

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 09:36 PM

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 09:37 PM

fwiw i dont really care, but i was told to come and not get lynched. so whatever

Chief Rum · 06-09-2009, 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

And I'm probably being overly vehement about it because I want to make sure that the villagers see the benefit I see in the ruleset and consider that when taking a course of action, and not just lynch as clap put it, to treat the game like a normal game of WW. Because it isn't a normal game.

I can see that. Obviosuly, I see similar value in this ruleset, which is why we see roughly eye to eye on that. That said, I have been utterly convinced of things in the past and have it turn out to be the completely wrong choice, and there are a TON of rules and exceptions and ifs-ands-buts in this ruleset. I'm just not comfortable accepting conviction about anything at this point.

Chief Rum · 06-09-2009, 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

fwiw i dont really care, but i was told to come and not get lynched. so whatever

You were told?

Chief Rum · 06-09-2009, 09:44 PM

clap, do you have a like a stock set of suspicious posts you save up to just break out in the middle of the games? Like, hmm, I think I'll take Post "C" from my Wolfy Things To Say, Set IV?

Chief Rum · 06-09-2009, 09:45 PM

Okay, I have to head home now. Probably won't be back before deadline. I am fine with things so long as we're jailing someone.

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 09:48 PM

Heh.

Unvote Jail Saldana
Vote Jail Claphamsa

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

unvote lynch rendeR
vote lynch Kwhitt`

Why vote lynch at this point?

Autumn · 06-09-2009, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

clap, do you have a like a stock set of suspicious posts you save up to just break out in the middle of the games? Like, hmm, I think I'll take Post "C" from my Wolfy Things To Say, Set IV?

That's exactly what I was thinking, lol

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

clap, do you have a like a stock set of suspicious posts you save up to just break out in the middle of the games? Like, hmm, I think I'll take Post "C" from my Wolfy Things To Say, Set IV?

yes? ok no i dont, but that would be cool. hoook it up and email me

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You were told?

and not by my cat!!

Danny · 06-09-2009, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

fwiw i dont really care, but i was told to come and not get lynched. so whatever

This post is pretty damning and while it could be something innocent, I don't see how I can't vote you now.

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Why vote lynch at this point?

because no jail vote helps us! (had a terrbile day at work, and am defending myself for thoers!

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

This post is pretty damning and while it could be something innocent, I don't see how I can't vote you now.

peace be with you.... kinda wish i could be on at deadline.... oh well

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 09:54 PM

I would like to appologize to dubb..... I should not have played in this game

The Jackal · 06-09-2009, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

clap, do you have a like a stock set of suspicious posts you save up to just break out in the middle of the games? Like, hmm, I think I'll take Post "C" from my Wolfy Things To Say, Set IV?

hilarious

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 09:59 PM

I fall in the middle ground as far as the jail vs lynch debate but I think we are making some really bad assumptions here in terms of catching a wolf through jailing we need to have a lot of things go right.

First, lets say there were 4 wolves to begin, that means we have a roughly 25% chance to jail a wolf. We then have a 20% chance of them actually breaking down and confessing, with those kinds of odds the game could be long over before a wolf is caught that way.

Also, yes, if someone comes back good then the king can release them as trusted, but again, how many days are we going to wait before that happens while the wolves continue to kill at night, and all the while we risk jailing the seer, a BG, etc...

Also, what historical value do we gain?

Lets say day 4 we find a wolf, all that means is it is day 4 and we have 1 vote to analyze, and it is a jail vote and I am sure the wolves will be spread out. So by then we could potentialy have 1 wolf, 3 night kills and a bunch of uncleared people in jail who may or may not have a role that now has been rendered obsolete.

I'm just wondering how long we wait before we decide we need to lynch someone?

Now tho obvious counter is odds are if we lynch it will be a villager, possibly a rolled one which is bad, and by sending people to jail they can be rereleased if cleared.

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 10:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

fwiw i dont really care, but i was told to come and not get lynched. so whatever

umm, what?

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 10:03 PM

um.... told... come... care! fight!

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 10:03 PM

good enough for you?

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 10:03 PM

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

clap, do you have a like a stock set of suspicious posts you save up to just break out in the middle of the games? Like, hmm, I think I'll take Post "C" from my Wolfy Things To Say, Set IV?

LMAO

this really had me cracking up.

My wife just looked at me quizically, I said Werewolf, she rolled her eyes and went back to watching General Hospital.

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

LMAO

this really had me cracking up.

My wife just looked at me quizically, I said Werewolf, she rolled her eyes and went back to watching General Hospital.

isnt that on at 1 EST? not 10?

Autumn · 06-09-2009, 10:07 PM

My wife also wondered what I was laughing about.

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:07 PM

Do we have a vote count?

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I was struck oddly by clap's response as well, although he admittedly does often hit the wrong chord with people (not in a bad way, but in a "you're suspicious" way). His Render vote seemed a bit out there to me.

My candidate for King yesterday was Danny, and I don't think he has voted yet. I would be interested in hearing his thoughts, as he usually seems to have a rational approach to complicated mechanics like this.

My board games order from boardsandbits came in, so I have been playing with my wife

.

I'm still catching up, but will post my thoughts coming up.

dubb93 · 06-09-2009, 10:10 PM

Day 2 Vote Count:

Clap Jail - 7 - USFL (528), Telle (618), DT (624), CR (626), Tyrith (628), Autumn (635), KWhit (666)
BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
Clap Lynch - 2 - Saldana (503), The Jackal (560)
USFL Lynch - 2 - Path (557), Schmidty (558)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Clap (656)

Yet to Vote: Barkeep, Danny, Render

Autumn · 06-09-2009, 10:11 PM

what game did you get Danny?

I don't know what clap's up to.

Telle · 06-09-2009, 10:11 PM

As of post #685:

1 - SnDvls Jail - Autum (494)
4 - Barkeep jail - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), SnDvls (532), Lerriuqs (547)
2 - claphamsa lynch - saldana (503), The Jackal (560)
7 - claphamsa jail - USFLTecmo (528), Telle (618), DaddyTorgo (624), Chief Rum (626), Tyrith (628), Autumn (635), KWhit (666
2 - USFLTechmo lynch - path (557), Schmidty (558)
1 - KWhit Lynch - claphamsa (656)

Yet to vote: Barkeep49, Danny, RendeR

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Let's chat about this for a second, because I'm clearly the most vocal supporter of the Jail-First Party.

I see the jail mechanic as set up in this game a significant benefit to the villagers. You only seem to believe it is mildly a benefit. Why so?

When I really sat down and started thinking about it, I started thinking that it is almost TOO GOOD for the village and may be overpowered (not that I'm complaining, I'll use whatever tools are in the rules to win).

I think the jail is a useful, but not something we should rely on 100%. I think we need a balance of players in jail and players lynched. The problem with putting all of our eggs in the prison basket is the vulnerability to a prison attack and to a corrupt king.

Today, I favor a jailing over a lynching, but depending on the night results I might shift gears tomorrow. In general I think keeping the prison at a nice manageable number (2 or 3) is the ideal scenario. And besides the earlier concerns about jailing too many players, it would make the game drag on way too much.

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 10:11 PM

go me go! just vote lynch!

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

isnt that on at 1 EST? not 10?

they have this awesome invention. Its, like, this "box" that sits on your TV, and you plug it into the back. Then you use this really cool remote thinggy to program it. Then while you are at work it records any show that was on that day. I have no idea how this magic works, but it makes life so easy!

You can even skip the commercials!

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 10:15 PM

I think Clap needs to be scanned at some point

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 10:15 PM

wow, u take all my fun away

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think Clap needs to be scanned at some point

dont waste it.... im done i think.

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

what game did you get Danny?

I don't know what clap's up to.

I wanted to get into board gaming more and went a bit over board with my orders. Today's shipment included Arkham Horror, Hive, Battle Line, Dominion and Carccasonne: Hunters and Gatherers. So far we played a few games of hive and battle line. Both are very fun. Taking a break for the Lakers game now.

I have two other shipments coming tomorrow, I think in total I ordered like 20 games/

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

they have this awesome invention. Its, like, this "box" that sits on your TV, and you plug it into the back. Then you use this really cool remote thinggy to program it. Then while you are at work it records any show that was on that day. I have no idea how this magic works, but it makes life so easy!

You can even skip the commercials!

Ouch man, ouch :P Even if it was deserved.

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:17 PM

Ok so I'm catching up but need to do some correcting here. We need to lynch. CR's math is missing an important component: by Day 5 we'll have a 90% chance of learning the aurora of ONE person. The math here is quite complicated to show what the premuations are, and it's too close to deadline for me to do it, but the overwhelming answer of that ONE person's scan is that we would catch a villager. Meanwhile we'd likely have lost 5 villagers. THIS is not a good thing. Trading 5 deaths for 1 cleared villager is NOT a good course of action. If, instead, we leave Pass to rot for 5 days while lynching others we maintain a 66% chance of learning what Pass is, while having a much higher % chance of catching a wolf.

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:19 PM

Lynch clap

He seems like the best shot we have at a lynch so using my reasoning in 697 I'm going that way.

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Ok so I'm catching up but need to do some correcting here. We need to lynch. CR's math is missing an important component: by Day 5 we'll have a 90% chance of learning the aurora of ONE person. The math here is quite complicated to show what the premuations are, and it's too close to deadline for me to do it, but the overwhelming answer of that ONE person's scan is that we would catch a villager. Meanwhile we'd likely have lost 5 villagers. THIS is not a good thing. Trading 5 deaths for 1 cleared villager is NOT a good course of action. If, instead, we leave Pass to rot for 5 days while lynching others we maintain a 66% chance of learning what Pass is, while having a much higher % chance of catching a wolf.

This is similar to my thought process, but not quite as strong. I am alright with having a couple players in jail. but am firmly not on the side of jailing players over and over for the reasons I mentioned and you mentioned here. The lynch is our biggest weapon and giving the wolves night kill after night kill with no lynching is not a good idea.

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:21 PM

DOLA: BTW another faulty reasoning, which is true now but not when CR posted his analysis, is that the odds of discovering Pass's auroa for today are 0. Tomorrow we get a 20% chance again. But at this point, by Day 5, we'll only have a 73% chance of finding ONE person's aura.

06-09-2009, 09:31 PM	#652
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	RNG?

06-09-2009, 09:32 PM	#653
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Agreed on the role of the jail in potentially building a CoT. If we clear a bunch of people, or at least a few, I mean, they can't all be the Dark One or the cultist. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

06-09-2009, 09:33 PM	#654
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	hmmm. looks like im in the lead... lame! not sure waht to say! bruing it dark evil guy! __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 09:34 PM	#656
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	unvote lynch rendeR vote lynch Kwhitt` __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 09:34 PM	#657
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	can i geta vote count? __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 09:33 PM	#655
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	And I'm probably being overly vehement about it because I want to make sure that the villagers see the benefit I see in the ruleset and consider that when taking a course of action, and not just lynch as clap put it, to treat the game like a normal game of WW. Because it isn't a normal game.

06-09-2009, 09:35 PM	#659
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Well, at least you're still safe, KWhit.

06-09-2009, 09:36 PM	#660
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	__________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 09:37 PM	#661
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	fwiw i dont really care, but i was told to come and not get lynched. so whatever __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 09:44 PM	#664
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	clap, do you have a like a stock set of suspicious posts you save up to just break out in the middle of the games? Like, hmm, I think I'll take Post "C" from my Wolfy Things To Say, Set IV? __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

06-09-2009, 09:45 PM	#665
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Okay, I have to head home now. Probably won't be back before deadline. I am fine with things so long as we're jailing someone. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

06-09-2009, 09:48 PM	#666
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	Heh. Unvote Jail Saldana Vote Jail Claphamsa

06-09-2009, 09:54 PM	#674
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	I would like to appologize to dubb..... I should not have played in this game __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 09:59 PM	#676
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I fall in the middle ground as far as the jail vs lynch debate but I think we are making some really bad assumptions here in terms of catching a wolf through jailing we need to have a lot of things go right. First, lets say there were 4 wolves to begin, that means we have a roughly 25% chance to jail a wolf. We then have a 20% chance of them actually breaking down and confessing, with those kinds of odds the game could be long over before a wolf is caught that way. Also, yes, if someone comes back good then the king can release them as trusted, but again, how many days are we going to wait before that happens while the wolves continue to kill at night, and all the while we risk jailing the seer, a BG, etc... Also, what historical value do we gain? Lets say day 4 we find a wolf, all that means is it is day 4 and we have 1 vote to analyze, and it is a jail vote and I am sure the wolves will be spread out. So by then we could potentialy have 1 wolf, 3 night kills and a bunch of uncleared people in jail who may or may not have a role that now has been rendered obsolete. I'm just wondering how long we wait before we decide we need to lynch someone? Now tho obvious counter is odds are if we lynch it will be a villager, possibly a rolled one which is bad, and by sending people to jail they can be rereleased if cleared.

06-09-2009, 10:03 PM	#678
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	um.... told... come... care! fight! __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 10:03 PM	#679
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	good enough for you? __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 10:03 PM	#680
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	__________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 10:07 PM	#683
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	My wife also wondered what I was laughing about.

06-09-2009, 10:07 PM	#684
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Do we have a vote count?

06-09-2009, 10:11 PM	#687
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	what game did you get Danny? I don't know what clap's up to.

06-09-2009, 10:11 PM	#688
Telle College Starter Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Buffalo, NY	As of post #685: 1 - SnDvls Jail - Autum (494) 4 - Barkeep jail - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), SnDvls (532), Lerriuqs (547) 2 - claphamsa lynch - saldana (503), The Jackal (560) 7 - claphamsa jail - USFLTecmo (528), Telle (618), DaddyTorgo (624), Chief Rum (626), Tyrith (628), Autumn (635), KWhit (666 2 - USFLTechmo lynch - path (557), Schmidty (558) 1 - KWhit Lynch - claphamsa (656) Yet to vote: Barkeep49, Danny, RendeR

06-09-2009, 10:11 PM	#690
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	go me go! just vote lynch! __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 10:15 PM	#692
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I think Clap needs to be scanned at some point

06-09-2009, 10:15 PM	#693
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	wow, u take all my fun away __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 10:17 PM	#697
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Ok so I'm catching up but need to do some correcting here. We need to lynch. CR's math is missing an important component: by Day 5 we'll have a 90% chance of learning the aurora of ONE person. The math here is quite complicated to show what the premuations are, and it's too close to deadline for me to do it, but the overwhelming answer of that ONE person's scan is that we would catch a villager. Meanwhile we'd likely have lost 5 villagers. THIS is not a good thing. Trading 5 deaths for 1 cleared villager is NOT a good course of action. If, instead, we leave Pass to rot for 5 days while lynching others we maintain a 66% chance of learning what Pass is, while having a much higher % chance of catching a wolf.

06-09-2009, 10:19 PM	#698
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Lynch clap He seems like the best shot we have at a lynch so using my reasoning in 697 I'm going that way.

06-09-2009, 10:21 PM	#700
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	DOLA: BTW another faulty reasoning, which is true now but not when CR posted his analysis, is that the odds of discovering Pass's auroa for today are 0. Tomorrow we get a 20% chance again. But at this point, by Day 5, we'll only have a 73% chance of finding ONE person's aura.

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