Official 2024 College Football Thread

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think the SEC benefits by the way voters look at losses to other SEC teams.

Take Texas A&M. Their only ranked win is against a LSU team who only beat an Ole Miss team who hasn't beaten a currently ranked opponent.

Why are those three the second, third, and fourth ranked two-loss teams and ranked higher than zero or one loss teams?

I agree with you a little more on this tidbit.

LSU -- One win over a ranked team (Ole Miss). Losses to USC and Texas A&M.
Texas A&M -- One win over a ranked team (LSU). Losses to Notre Dame and South Carolina.
Ole Miss -- No wins over a ranked team. Losses to Kentucky and LSU.

On the other hand, the same could be said for the next three ranked 2-loss teams.

Clemson -- No wins over a ranked team. Losses to Georgia and Louisville.
Colorado -- No wins over a ranked team. Losses to Nebraska and Kansas State.
Kansas State -- One win over a ranked team (Colorado). Losses to BYU and Houston.

Is there a compelling reason to rank Clemson, Colorado, or Kansas State over the SEC teams? I suppose you could make an argument that it's only the SEC bias that's giving the SEC more chances to beat ranked teams, that the other teams don't have. But, are there teams on the schedules for Clemson, Colorado, or Kansas State that "should" be ranked, or are at least pretty good? I don't see them.

I hate SEC bias as much as the next guy, but it's a good league, and has a lot of parity this year.

[Passacaglia]

This will be the last time I do this with the AP Poll, since tomorrow, while everyone else decides whether to let a wannabe dictator become one, 13 people vote on what *really* matters -- a preliminary ranking of college football teams before most of the interesting games have yet to be played. Anyway, here we go:

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Miami
4. BYU

5. Ohio State
12. Boise State

6. Texas
11. Alabama

7. Penn State
10. Notre Dame

8. Tennessee
9. Indiana

First few out: 8-1 SMU, 6-2 LSU, 7-2 Texas A&M, 7-2 Ole Miss, 7-1 Iowa State

Until now, I defined "first few out" as teams that were ahead of Boise State. Since Boise State is now ranked #12, I've defined it as teams ahead of the next ranked G5 team, Army.

Boise State. I've gone from "who can take the 5th conference champion spot from Boise State" to "can Boise State get in the top 4 and get a bye" since they've moved up so much. They've moved up 5 spots in two weeks, though. BYU is only three spots ahead at #9. If BYU runs the table, Boise State probably gets shut out, but if BYU loses a game and Boise State wins out, you'd think Boise State gets the bye. Maybe Iowa State passes Boise State with a win over Kansas State and a win over BYU in the conference championship game?

Army. They've moved up to #18. Could an undefeated season and a win over Notre Dame and Navy put them in over a Big 12 champion? I don't think that's impossible.

Washington State. They're at #20 and 7-1. Wins over Texas Tech and Washington, loss to Boise State. Could they get some PAC 12 pity love?

Indiana. They moved up 5 spots this week to #8. Got some luck with losses by Texas A&M, Clemson, and Iowa State right in front of them, but they also jumped BYU and Notre Dame. Penn State dropped three spots losing to Ohio State, if Indiana does the same, they can stay in the top 12.

Changes:
Texas A&M drops out, and the Clemson/Iowa State tie is resolved by kicking both of them out. Indiana and Alabama take their spots.
The SEC is wide open with five 1-loss teams. Some games between them are left -- Georgia plays Tennessee, and Texas plays Texas A&M. LSU is the only team that doesn't play any of the others. At this point, I think it makes sense to put Georgia in for the bye since they are ranked the highest.

By conference: SEC 4, B1G 4, ACC 1, B12 1, MW 1, Ind 1

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I don't think I know enough 3 loss teams to bother asking if there's a 3-loss team better than Vanderbilt.

They are definitely the 3-loss team with the best win however.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

They are definitely the 3-loss team with the best win however.

They also have the worst loss among the contenders.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I hate SEC bias as much as the next guy, but it's a good league, and has a lot of parity this year.

There is obvious bias for the SEC and the Big 10. There always will be. But I will say again, lots of what is happening right now is going to sorts its way out shortly. LSU plays Bama this week, with the loser out of the playoff picture. Georgia plays Ole Miss and Tennessee. Ole Miss will definitely be done with a loss, Georgia is out if they lose to both, maybe out if they lose to either. Tennessee maybe out with a loss to Georgia, definitely will be out with a loss to Vandy. Texas A&M will be out if they lose to Texas.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

There is obvious bias for the SEC and the Big 10. There always will be.

I think the difference now is with the latest conference realignment it's even more earned? With the SEC adding Texas and the Big Ten adding Oregon, that means each conference has another Top 5 team, and each lower team in the conference has a schedule that's a little bit harder.

This isn't the 90s, where there are several conferences that could have good teams in the Top 10 that may be deserving of a shot to call themselves national champion. Where we are now is that the SEC and Big Ten are just going to be the best conferences each year, and it's not going to be close.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by dubb93

They also have the worst loss among the contenders.

I think once you get to 3-loss teams it's kinda proven that they can lose to just about anybody. I feel like best win is probably more impactful at that tier.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I think once you get to 3-loss teams it's kinda proven that they can lose to just about anybody. I feel like best win is probably more impactful at that tier.

I think all things being equal I would tend to agree but you can't lose to a two win team (one of those wins being Vandy) and not have it impact anything at all. Vandy's floor is so low that it has to be accounted for.

[JPhillips]

I think that eventually this will mostly work out and rankings don't matter much, but there's a clear benefit for SEC teams regarding losses to other SEC teams. Other than vibes, what's the reason Iowa St. is below the A&M, LSU, and Ole Miss?

[RainMaker]

Ole Miss is strange because their schedule hasn't exactly been tough and they don't really have a good win this year (along with a bad loss to Kentucky).

[GrantDawg]

Vandy has as many wins over a top 5 opponent as Penn State since 2000.... 1.

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[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think that eventually this will mostly work out and rankings don't matter much, but there's a clear benefit for SEC teams regarding losses to other SEC teams. Other than vibes, what's the reason Iowa St. is below the A&M, LSU, and Ole Miss?

I'll use Sagarin (I know, I know, flaws ... but it's known, it's easy to find AND decipher)

Ole Miss - ranked 6th, SOS 51
Tx A&M - ranked 15th, SOS 13
LSU - ranked 11th, SOS 8
Iowa St - ranked 17th, SOS 37

Iowa State gets hurt by having played only 1 team in Sagarin's Top 30. They beat Iowa (who is ranked 16th btw) and are 1-0 but all three teams you mentioned specifically have 2 wins over T30 teams and have played 5/4/3 of those. There are 3 other T30 B12 teams in that poll .. but ISU hasn't faced any of them yet (and will only face one of them, K-State)

The "benefit" comes with losing to SEC teams that are considered better than a whole lot of other teams.

It ain't just poll voters, unless the crying contingent wants to claim that the computers have an SEC/B10 bias too.

[RainMaker]

Does Sagarin take into account margin of victory? Was surprised how high Ole Miss is but they have won a few games by huge margins.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Does Sagarin take into account margin of victory? Was surprised how high Ole Miss is but they have won a few games by huge margins.

There's 4 versions, with different weighting. 3 of those then "synthsize" (his word) into the rating I mentioned

They're 5th in pure points, 6th in golden mean (a diminising returns model I think), 6th in Recent, and 2nd in Strong Recent (which isn't used in the rating)

[JPhillips]

51st SOS, 2 losses and ranked 6th?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

51st SOS, 2 losses and ranked 6th?

This is where you have to remember that Sagarin is meant to be predictive at its core.