NFL 2022 Offseason, Draft, Free Agency

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by stevew

The cap is going to keep going up. Hill gives you the best chance to win a title over the next two years. You can roll over his hit forever. Eventually Kelce and Hill would have to go but until then keep pushing it forward. Probably at some point Mahomes is going to need some kind of surgical work done and that’s the year you soft tank and take cap hits.

Hill hasn't been the same player. I can't tell you how much of it's because he's lost a little bit of a step, he misses having another guy like Watkins who can draw attention, or they were using him much differently last year, but his yards per reception has gone from 17.0 to 14.8 to 14.7 to 11.2. Juju can play the slot very well, I guess they figure they can get some of the over the top threat from Hardman or a much cheaper guy like Valdez-Scantling, and they now have a ton of draft capital (2 picks in each of the first 4 rounds) to trade up for an impact guy and/or restock the rest of the roster that has slowly been chipped away at since their Super Bowl (and Mahomes extension, even if it's not too bad compared to the market now).

We'll see how it plays out - maybe I'm overrating Juju who I really feel was held back in Pittsburgh since his breakout year - but while there was some mutual symbiosis I think Mahomes did a lot more to make Hill look better than Hill did to make Mahomes look good.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by stevew

Watson getting indicted by this other grand jury would be so Browns

And this would be a grand jury on number ten of 22 accounts. There could still be other grand juries on some of the other 12. I still don't get how the Browns (or any team) has done an "extensive" background check on him and not asked a question to any of his accusers. Sports Illustrated talks with someone who had the same experience with him that is not even one of the 22. She showed a DM conversation she had with Watson confronting him with his actions, and provided collaboration from people that she told about the indecent immediately after the fact. She has had no contact with the accusers attorneys or filed any suit of her own. Yet, somehow the NFL teams thinks this is all hunky-dory. If he doesn't settle this suit, the whole case is going to be played out in vivid detail on the news and the Browns are going to look real bad.

[BishopMVP]

It's also classic Andy Reid team building - you have the great young QB, make sure you're good enough to be in the mix for the top 3-4 in the conference every year instead of pushing all in for a season or two since it's not like Mahomes is in danger of falling off or retiring soon. It's staying the course while many NFL teams are following the Rams model and pushing in had, but unlike his Philly run they do have the Super Bowl title already so it makes even more sense from that perspective.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

And this would be a grand jury on number ten of 22 accounts. There could still be other grand juries on some of the other 12. I still don't get how the Browns (or any team) has done an "extensive" background check on him and not asked a question to any of his accusers. Sports Illustrated talks with someone who had the same experience with him that is not even one of the 22. She showed a DM conversation she had with Watson confronting him with his actions, and provided collaboration from people that she told about the indecent immediately after the fact. She has had no contact with the accusers attorneys or filed any suit of her own. Yet, somehow the NFL teams thinks this is all hunky-dory. If he doesn't settle this suit, the whole case is going to be played out in vivid detail on the news and the Browns are going to look real bad.

The Browns said they knew about this second case. That Grand Jury today decided not to indict.

It's not hunky-dory, but there must be some reason they aren't getting indictments. Normally, cases do not get to this stage without moving forward - it's not hard to get a Grand Jury to approve probable cause if the prosecution has a case. This isn't a trial where Watson gets to defend himself.

I don't know what's going on, nor do I know anything more than what the women have alleged has happened, but I do think the NFL and the Browns have looked into this thoroughly and they think a suspension is appropriate, but not jail time.

[GrantDawg]

There is a reason they aren't getting indictments. "He says-she says" are very hard cases to win and the prosecutors have no interest in a trial. If they wanted an indictment, they could have gotten one. They just wanted to get the cases off their plate. A civil trial is much more likely to bring a guilty verdict.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[flere-imsaho]

Yeah, I suspect the "extensive background check" is some thorough legal advice regarding the probability of successful future legal action. As in, not a high probability.

Good thing he didn't take a knee for George Floyd, though. Dude would be out of sports forever.

[QuikSand]

For those eyeing the rookie draft, here's the latest mock from Daniel Jeremiah:

Daniel Jeremiah 2022 NFL mock draft 3.1: Chiefs add receiver in Round 1 after Tyreek Hill trade

It's a bit out of touch with the vibe I get from running a number of mock draft engines myself on behalf of various teams... but that is sometimes a helpful thing. Jeremiah is pretty plugged in, and if you see a difference between what's happening on the Fanspeak website (name out of a hat) versus him... it's probably wise to consider his views, as they are more likely to be arising from actual NFL decision makers than from shitheads like me or most local beat writers.

Notable takeaways, from this, as I see it:

-the edge rusher class is more mixed up than we/I think... Thibodeaux is a huge variable and instead of being a 1.1-1.3 guy, maybe he's actually a 1.3-1.12 guy (he goes 3 here but Walker ahead of him feels VERY new, and Johnson in the top handful of picks is also new-ish and out of step with the rest of the world)

-maybe the apparent rise of Liberty QB Malik Willis isn't all it's been cracked up to be? DJ has him falling completely out of round one (for context, if I were to see that while running a webmock draft for a team like Detroit at pick 32, I'd re-start the draft rather than continue as it's so absurd), while numbnuts like me have been whispering that he's rising into the top five picks... that's a pretty stark difference, right? (DJ has Pickett at 18 as the only QB in round one... that feels just unimagineable to me)

-two DBs going super high in most mocks (S Hamilton and CB Stingley) fall FAR in DJ's mock here... I don't know what to say, I get the argument that Stingley was a super enticing freshman followed up with not a ton... but most sites have him and Gardner slotted very close by, DJ has Gardner 4 and Stingley 20!?! Hamilton is top-7 in nearly every mock I see, here he's at 11.

-RB Breece Hall may be the whisper RB guy, as a perfect fit for a modern NFL offense... I like the projection to the Bills (who toyed with JD McKissic this offseason) even if round one may be early... the prop bet market (for first RB taken) seems to like this as well, and that should be guiding our thinking here too... more than what a bunch of beat writers say


Anyway...I'm not going as far as calling that DJ is right, but it wouldn't come as a surprise to see some of these differentials move his way in the time until the actual draft, and by late April, a guy like Stingley may no longer be a viable top-5 pick and is in play for teams like the Ravens mid-round.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

-maybe the apparent rise of Liberty QB Malik Willis isn't all it's been cracked up to be? DJ has him falling completely out of round one (for context, if I were to see that while running a webmock draft for a team like Detroit at pick 32, I'd re-start the draft rather than continue as it's so absurd), while numbnuts like me have been whispering that he's rising into the top five picks... that's a pretty stark difference, right? (DJ has Pickett at 18 as the only QB in round one... that feels just unimagineable to me)

Two thoughts:

1. I keep coming back to some talking heads I listened to late last season who were doing pre-pre draft talk. And they all agreed that the QB class was very below average. BUT they predicted that a bunch of guys would get overhyped and overdrafted. That seems to be what is happening.

2. On the Football GM podcast on The Athletic (need to be a subscriber) Randy Mueller said that Pickett was the only QB at all worth considering in the first round. And he was really definitive about it. And he really knows his stuff. I don't know if that is more predictive of what he thinks will happen, or if it what he thinks should happen. But it threw a lot of cold water on the class, IMO.

[JPhillips]

I'm all for a draft where Linderbaum falls to Cincy.

[QuikSand]

From the NFL Draft Props section at Establish the Run:

3. Over 3.5 QBs selected in Round 1
Line: +182
Date: March 11
Book: FanDuel (click here for best signup bonus offer)
Notes: We know Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett are locks. Based on team needs and tea leaves, we also think there’s a very good chance QBs move up later in process. Candidates include Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell.

Purely as a value proposition as a prediction, not that the selections would be wise...

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'm all for a draft where Linderbaum falls to Cincy.

I don't get that either. He feels like a no brainer for BAL unless a premium edge falls to them, in my view. There seems to be broad agreement he is an absolutely elite IOL prospect... that feels like an over-correction for position value, to me.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

...the QB class was very below average. BUT they predicted that a bunch of guys would get overhyped and overdrafted

perhaps we can economize and style this predicatble occurrence as being Trubisky'd

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I don't get that either. He feels like a no brainer for BAL unless a premium edge falls to them, in my view. There seems to be broad agreement he is an absolutely elite IOL prospect... that feels like an over-correction for position value, to me.

My general rule of thumb for the first round is that I'd rather get the best player at position X rather than the fifth-best player at position Y.

[bhlloy]

Feels like every year we say there’s x number of first round QBs and the rest suck and we end up with x+y in the first round where y is the number of poorly run franchises who are QB needy. I’m not sure I’d take over 3.5, but I’ll be very surprised if that number ends up being 1 (or Willis falls out of the first)

[flere-imsaho]

Hold up, Liberty University has a D1 football team?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Hold up, Liberty University has a D1 football team?

Allegedly.

[flere-imsaho]

The number of GMs who will reach and draft a QB in the first round, knowing full well that they probably won't end up being any good, but because it'll buy them a few more years on the job has to be a non-zero number.

[flere-imsaho]

Do lions & atheists feature in Liberty's halftime shows, I wonder?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Do lions & atheists feature in Liberty's halftime shows, I wonder?

Emcee'd by Jerry Fallwell Jr and, ahem, friends?

SI

[stevew]

The Steelers are supposedly in love with Willis. I’m not feeling it. I’d much rather draft BPA and see if we catch lightning in a bottle with Trubisky or even Mayfield.

[Honolulu_Blue]

The Lions find themselves in an awkward spot.

Assuming that Hutchinson goes #1 to the Jaguars, which seems to be the overwhelming consensus at the moment, they are kind stuck in no man's land for the #2 overall pick.

The top talent for that position appears to be one of the tackles, but the Lions are one of the few teams in the league that absolutely do not need another high end talent. They drafted Sewel last year and have Decker signed long term. They are pretty much set at offensive tackle.

They have needs pretty much everywhere else, especially at pass rusher/edge.

Thibodeaux seems to be the logical pick, but he's been getting dinged like crazy the few weeks and seems to have fallen out of favor.

Travon Walker seems to haver percolated up the #2 spot for the Lions, which I guess would be fine. He has great measurables, but seems more like an inside guy and didn't have a ton of sacks/high end production at Georgia. Still, at the moment, he seems like the safest pick maybe? Good, decent floor, but maybe not a high ceiling? Not really what you're hoping for from a second overall pick.

Some have the Lions taking Hamilton. Safety is a huge need, but I struggle with the idea of taking a safety at #2. The Lions just drafted Okudah third overall two years ago and that has been a complete disaster. In the last 10 years, except for one exception, the top two picks have been either a QB, DE, or OT. The one exception was the Giants take Barkley, which really hasn't worked out for them.

There has been a lot of chatter about the Lions looking at Willis at #2, but based on the DJ draft and other commentary that seems like a huge reach and potentially catastrophic mistake for a catastrophically terrible franchise. Maybe at 32? Maybe at 34? I don't know. I am hoping not. While he could be the rare late first round Lamar Jackson type hit, the odds are strongly against that happening. It's rare for a late first round QB (or any QB not taken in the first half of the draft) to become a franchise QB. Taking Willis in the late first/early second could just keep the Lions in QB purgatory and make them think they can pass over a QB next year. Not a fan.

Trading back isn't an option, because there doesn't seem to be much of value to trade up to get this year.

I guess, at the moment, I would be happy with either Walker or Thibodeaux. Any other realistic option seems like too big a reach/gamble and would rattle my faith in the Holmes/Campbell regime. At the moment, I am still pro this regime, even with a lack luster offseason, but based on every other Lions regime over the last 60 years, the benefit of the doubt only lasts so long.

[Lathum]

We all know they will take Garrett Wilson. Gotta surround Goff with talent....

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Trading back isn't an option, because there doesn't seem to be much of value to trade up to get this year.

Yup. The "just trade back" crowd does not understand that it takes two to tango.

The Lions best hope is that word gets out that Houston or the Giants are enamored with one of the QBs so a team like the Panthers or Falcons or Seahawks is wiling to trade up to leapfrog them.

The problem is that these are not Justin Fields/Zach Wilson type QBs. They might get drafted in the first, but it is hard to see a bidding war happening.

[GrantDawg]

Check this nightmare of a mock draft. I saw they had the Falcons trading up to three to get Pickett, and I threw up in my mouth a little bit.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Yup. The "just trade back" crowd does not understand that it takes two to tango.

The Lions best hope is that word gets out that Houston or the Giants are enamored with one of the QBs so a team like the Panthers or Falcons or Seahawks is wiling to trade up to leapfrog them.

The problem is that these are not Justin Fields/Zach Wilson type QBs. They might get drafted in the first, but it is hard to see a bidding war happening.

I agree. That would be the best case scenario for them, but it seems like a big stretch at this point.

There was even some chatter last week about the Lions looking to move up. I like Hutchinson, I think he'd be a great fit for the Lions on many levels, but I don't think he's the kind of talent to give up extra draft capital for.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Two thoughts:

2. On the Football GM podcast on The Athletic (need to be a subscriber) Randy Mueller said that Pickett was the only QB at all worth considering in the first round. And he was really definitive about it. And he really knows his stuff. I don't know if that is more predictive of what he thinks will happen, or if it what he thinks should happen. But it threw a lot of cold water on the class, IMO.

I was listening to this podcast this morning. They were talking about the Deshaun Watson contract and Mueller said how this contract "isn't good for anyone" due to it being fully guaranteed. He specifically mentioned agents, because has said that if an agent isn't able to get a fully guaranteed contract for, say, Burrow or Herbert, than that agent might be fired. He, also, mentioned that teams need to put a certain amount of money in escrow for guaranteed deals, which some franchises might not be willing or able to do.

I agree with all of that, but I don't see how this is bad for players. Fully guaranteed deals are great for players. The more guaranteed money the better for them. This development is not bad for players.

I don't blame Mueller, it has to be hard not to think like a GM after being one for so many years.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

He, also, mentioned that teams need to put a certain amount of money in escrow for guaranteed deals, which some franchises might not be willing or able to do.

I find this incredibly hard to believe, the "able" part. "Willing", I could believe.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I find this incredibly hard to believe, the "able" part. "Willing", I could believe.

There were some rumors that before the Raiders moved from Oakland, their financial situation was such that they did have a cash flow problem. That's not the case anymore.

I agree with you that every NFL team could put whatever it needs into escrow and then some. They just don't want to. You don't become a multi-billionaire by setting money aside for others.

[Honolulu_Blue]

The Lions are going to be this year's Hard Knocks team. Not super thrilled with that, but whatever.

[albionmoonlight]

Mike Tomlin on possible OT rule changes:

"I don't fear sudden death."

He might be the most coachy of all the great coaches. I don't play football and he kind of makes me want to run through a wall for him.

[QuikSand]

Athletic's mock draft run by their beat writer for each team making picks on their own subject team's behalf:

2022 NFL Beat Writer Mock Draft: Edge rushers a hot commodity while quarterbacks fall (except for one) – The Athletic

C Linderbaum falling out of the first round, I do not understand this at all.

[QuikSand]

DE Walker starring to get 1.1 buzz, Detroit should like that, right?

[JPhillips]

Again, I'd rather have the #1 center rather than the #6 CB.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Mike Tomlin on possible OT rule changes:

"I don't fear sudden death."

He might be the most coachy of all the great coaches. I don't play football and he kind of makes me want to run through a wall for him.

He should, considering Tebow

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

DE Walker starring to get 1.1 buzz, Detroit should like that, right?

I would say, yes. The consensus is that Hutchinson fits both a need and fits extremely well with the type of culture Dan Campbell is trying to build. Also, throw in the local kid angle and that’s good for jersey sales.

Jeremiah Daniel had the Lions taking Walker and Nakobe Dean. The Athletic best writer draft had them taking Thiboadeaux and Dean. I’d be happy with either of those scenarios.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Again, I'd rather have the #1 center rather than the #6 CB.

Agreed. The Lions drafting Frank Ragnow was one of their better draft day decisions in many years.

[Edward64]

CBS is predicting Falcons trade up to #3 and pick up Pickett. No idea who he is.

Malik is predicted to be go to Lions as #2. No idea who he is either. But com'on, Liberty University? I know he left Auburn but hard to believe he's really been tested at Liberty.

I'd got with Matt Corral if I had to have a QB.

PROJECTED TRADE WITH TEXANS

Kenny Pickett
Pittsburgh · QB · Senior

The trade of Matt Ryan to the Colts seemed a fait accompli after Atlanta's failed attempt to land Deshaun Watson. Picking up Marcus Mariota is a nice insurance policy, but the Falcons find their future starter by trading up for Pickett, giving up a 2023 first-round pick as well as a second- and fourth-rounder this year.

[bhlloy]

And the annual transition from “this is a very weak QB draft, I could see one being drafted towards the back of the round” to “we are hearing multiple teams looking to trade into the top 3 to pick Hypey McHypeface” is well and truly underway.

[Solecismic]

Twice in the last 20 years, the draft has not produced a QB who has reached 35 career starts. And in one other year (2010), Sam Bradford was the only one.

So it can be hit or miss with an entire draft class, but the average is 3.6 quarterbacks per year getting at least 35 career starts. And about half of the quarterbacks who get there could be considered "franchise" quarterbacks.

The average number of first-round quarterbacks chosen is 2.9, with at least one every season going back to 1996. And about 2.2 of those 2.9 quarterbacks have reached 35 starts (call it a 75% hit rate getting a starter when you draft a quarterback in the first round). That ratio goes up considerably when you take a quarterback in the top three picks of the draft.

With numbers so low, that's not all that significant for a single quarterback class. Just an idea of how this tends to work in a very general sense.

It's also becoming more rare to find a starting quarterback after the first round. Going back 10 years, the list: Jacoby Brissett (3rd) and Dak Prescott (4th), 2016, Derek Carr (2nd) and Jimmy Garoppolo (2nd), 2014, Nick Foles (3rd), Russell Wilson (3rd), Kirk Cousins (4th) and Case Keenum (UFA), 2012. Jalen Hurts and Davis Mills seem to be on pace. So maybe one starter in the class every year after the first round, about half of those decent enough to build a team around.

Of the 72 first-round quarterbacks chosen since 1998, 41 were picked in the top eight and 32 in the top three. Of the 28 of those top three picks taken in 2018 or earlier, only three (Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, JaMarcus Russell) didn't reach 35 career starts.

Of the 20 first-rounders during that period picked after pick 12, 17 were 2018 or earlier and 9 reached 35 career starts. Generally, you don't find someone with a starting grade after pick 12, though there are notable exceptions.

There are 5-6 quarterbacks who seem to have grades that could put them in the first three rounds of the draft. Of those, Pickett and Willis are often first-rounders in mocks, but Willis is usually linked with the report that Pittsburgh loves him.

It will be interesting to see if anyone trades into the top three (or Detroit or Houston just grabs one) to get a quarterback. That would be the sign that there's significant belief in one of them.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Twice in the last 20 years, the draft has not produced a QB who has reached 35 career starts. And in one other year (2010), Sam Bradford was the only one.

So it can be hit or miss with an entire draft class, but the average is 3.6 quarterbacks per year getting at least 35 career starts. And about half of the quarterbacks who get there could be considered "franchise" quarterbacks.

The average number of first-round quarterbacks chosen is 2.9, with at least one every season going back to 1996. And about 2.2 of those 2.9 quarterbacks have reached 35 starts (call it a 75% hit rate getting a starter when you draft a quarterback in the first round). That ratio goes up considerably when you take a quarterback in the top three picks of the draft.

With numbers so low, that's not all that significant for a single quarterback class. Just an idea of how this tends to work in a very general sense.

It's also becoming more rare to find a starting quarterback after the first round. Going back 10 years, the list: Jacoby Brissett (3rd) and Dak Prescott (4th), 2016, Derek Carr (2nd) and Jimmy Garoppolo (2nd), 2014, Nick Foles (3rd), Russell Wilson (3rd), Kirk Cousins (4th) and Case Keenum (UFA), 2012. Jalen Hurts and Davis Mills seem to be on pace. So maybe one starter in the class every year after the first round, about half of those decent enough to build a team around.

Of the 72 first-round quarterbacks chosen since 1998, 41 were picked in the top eight and 32 in the top three. Of the 28 of those top three picks taken in 2018 or earlier, only three (Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, JaMarcus Russell) didn't reach 35 career starts.

Of the 20 first-rounders during that period picked after pick 12, 17 were 2018 or earlier and 9 reached 35 career starts. Generally, you don't find someone with a starting grade after pick 12, though there are notable exceptions.

There are 5-6 quarterbacks who seem to have grades that could put them in the first three rounds of the draft. Of those, Pickett and Willis are often first-rounders in mocks, but Willis is usually linked with the report that Pittsburgh loves him.

It will be interesting to see if anyone trades into the top three (or Detroit or Houston just grabs one) to get a quarterback. That would be the sign that there's significant belief in one of them.

Good stuff here.

I go back on forth with what the Steelers will do. They filled immediate holes at ILB, interior OL, and CB via free agency (for a change), so I think they are less likely to slightly reach for those positions. They need an OT, a safety, WRs, probably some DL and certainly a QB. One interesting thing regarding Willis is that the Steelers have taken a power 5 player in the first round every year since 1999, with the exception of Ben in 2004. They seem to love SEC and Big Ten players in particular, but that is probably true for most teams. Willis was originally an SEC player and they may be looking to find a running QB, since the Steelers and Ravens tend to copycat one another quite often.

My preference is for them to go some combo of WR, DL, and OT in the first two rounds. There seems to be some depth at WR and DT in this draft, so getting two starting caliber guys seems possible.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Big day for the Detroit NFL-wise yesterday: The Lions on Hard Knocks this year - people love the crazy, meathead Dan Campbell - and Detroit is hosting the 2024 Draft. As much as I love the draft, and I do, it’s not an event I ever had a desire to attend live.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

As much as I love the draft, and I do, it’s not an event I ever had a desire to attend live.

Every story I've heard from a reporter who attended the draft live is that it is way better on TV. Apparently, it is standing around for 15 minutes between picks without much going on.

You miss all of the cool videos and the "How far will Jimmy Clausen fall?" talk and the shots of the last guy in the green room trying not to look angry/sad that make the TV production so fun.

[Lathum]

Draft seems like times square on New Years Eve. Fun to do once to say you did it then never again.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

And the annual transition from “this is a very weak QB draft, I could see one being drafted towards the back of the round” to “we are hearing multiple teams looking to trade into the top 3 to pick Hypey McHypeface” is well and truly underway.

SI

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

DE Walker starring to get 1.1 buzz, Detroit should like that, right?

PFF podcast just did a rundown on the latest Kiper mock, with Walker at 1.6 they spent quite some time on this... he's a guy who graded out superbly at the combine, but has a mysterious lack of "production" during his college career. Their view is that while the connection between college production (the PFF grade, or simpler measurables) and pro production (same) is variable across positions, pass rushing is one of the stronger ones. That is... all things equal, if you have to choose between the combine freak or the all-american 13-sack guy, you're better off with the latter, by the numbers.

There are exceptions... Danielle Hunter the most obvious recent one. But it's an interesting case, for a guy who is by most accounts moving way up the board.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

PFF podcast just did a rundown on the latest Kiper mock, with Walker at 1.6 they spent quite some time on this... he's a guy who graded out superbly at the combine, but has a mysterious lack of "production" during his college career. Their view is that while the connection between college production (the PFF grade, or simpler measurables) and pro production (same) is variable across positions, pass rushing is one of the stronger ones. That is... all things equal, if you have to choose between the combine freak or the all-american 13-sack guy, you're better off with the latter, by the numbers.

There are exceptions... Danielle Hunter the most obvious recent one. But it's an interesting case, for a guy who is by most accounts moving way up the board.

I'm listening to a guy on the Athletic Football Show saying that Walker wasn't asked at Georgia to just get sacks. A lot of times his job was to eat up the OT.

I'm not a tape guy, so I have no idea how right that is. But it would explain the disconnect between production and measurables in a pro-Walker way.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I'm listening to a guy on the Athletic Football Show saying that Walker wasn't asked at Georgia to just get sacks. A lot of times his job was to eat up the OT.

I'm not a tape guy, so I have no idea how right that is. But it would explain the disconnect between production and measurables in a pro-Walker way.

I mean... the insane wave of talent leaving UGa this year has got to play a role. You can only tally up one sack per play, as best as I understand it, even when it's against Vandy or some directional school.

But yes, scheme certainly feels like it could play a part.

[Solecismic]

Seems like the Mahomes rule for postseason games has passed.

One thing I noticed a couple of years ago when I took a deep dive into overtime is just how much the one-possession rule changed strategy. Most of that was away from those awkward plays where you think you're in secure field-goal range but want to center the ball or maybe get 2-3 more yards. But more risk-taking as well, which I think goes well with the overtime concept.

I don't think this rule change will do a lot one way or another, since postseason games aren't capped at 10 minutes of overtime. But it might help with perceptions. I would be opposed to changing it for the regular season.

[RainMaker]

Just a haunting piece.

Henry Ruggs III crash: How it haunts Tony Rodriguez - Sports Illustrated

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Seems like the Mahomes rule for postseason games has passed.

One thing I noticed a couple of years ago when I took a deep dive into overtime is just how much the one-possession rule changed strategy. Most of that was away from those awkward plays where you think you're in secure field-goal range but want to center the ball or maybe get 2-3 more yards. But more risk-taking as well, which I think goes well with the overtime concept.

I don't think this rule change will do a lot one way or another, since postseason games aren't capped at 10 minutes of overtime. But it might help with perceptions. I would be opposed to changing it for the regular season.

I think if you win the toss in OT, you almost have to defer now, right? That way you know just how much you need to score to win or keep the game going.

SI