Werewolf 108, The Gang Wars of 1929 GAME OVER - North Siders Win

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

I agree about Kwhit completely. He may be a wolf, but his case to be a villager is stronger than any of us and if he is a wolf then I'll say good job.

It was too risky a point because Poli wasn't on anyone's radar yet and it could've gained traction, not a place I would risk it in any world so he'll get a pat on the back if he's bad from me too.

[Danny]

My thing about RealDeal is usually gets more into games as a wolf or with a role. He's been pretty checked out of this game from the beginning. Could be a strategy, but that's probably enough for me to not vote him. Honestly. I think the two wolves left are between Chief Rum, you and J23. I also think it is more likely it is CR and then one of you two then both J23 and you.

[Danny]

It would suck for guys like RealDeal, J23 and Kwhit not to get their thoughts out and contribute today. Hopefully they can get in here at some point.

[PurdueBrad]

I really, really, really am hoping to get other people's thoughts here tonight as well. The silence is eerie frankly, particularly as one of the two or three people likely up for lynch.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

We have a low chance of winning here, so I am going by gut, but I have read something from him over the last couple days almost identical to several games back when he was a wolf.

Your read is wrong, as was Autumn's. At least I know Autumn was just wrong--he was wrong more than once already, actually, between me and DT. That makes me wonder if he might just be off of his game for some reason. If so, that puts his read on PB quite a bit in doubt.

No, when it comes down to it, you're not playing like you usually play, Danny, and this is a big time wolf vibe to me. And that's on top of you voting for me--I was probably leaning this way anyway, but with you pushing a vote on me on gut--and your game is almost always based on analysis and reading the votes and playing the numbers game, IMO--this is all a big time red flag for me.

VOTE DANNY

[Chief Rum]

I guess the village can try to decide who is more wolfish here, or introduce a third candidate. My vote's staying there--I'll be leaving soon, so I'll be locked in.

[Danny]

Unvote Chief Rum

I just noticed something.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

My thing about RealDeal is usually gets more into games as a wolf or with a role. He's been pretty checked out of this game from the beginning. Could be a strategy, but that's probably enough for me to not vote him.

I don't know if I've ever been a wolf with RD before (have to look back) but I know that I personally, as a usually somewhat involved player, couldn't play the UTR part to this degree as a means for winning. Just would be dull frankly. So he's last of the three and, like I said, I don't just want to vote him as a 'punishment' kind of vote (like we do on day 1's when people don't check in).

That leaves J23 and CR, both of whom put votes on me so I can go either way. J23's vote on me sticks in my craw but again, is it a punishment vote from me. CR laid off me but voted Autumn in the process so I don't know there either.

Looking back, even though I am moving away from vote history, two people voted Lathum back-to-back on D1 and 2 (which I would've pushed if I were a wolf). I would've wanted Lathum, EF, or Danny out as early as possible. That was CR and RD (as I talk myself back into RD).

GUH! Again, I'll vote to stay alive and unless I find something on read through, go with gut.

[Danny]

I was reading back through the day when we had PB, CR and Autumn up for a vote and noticed something. When people were voting Autumn the wolves had to know he was Capone and could reveal to save himself, yet CR put a second vote on Autumn with other candidates who couldn't reveal themselves.

[PurdueBrad]

CR, between you and Danny, I'll be honest, I would lynch you. If there are two wolves left, who is your second?

[Danny]

Im not sure a wolf risks voting someone who has the duke ability. And CR and Autumn went pretty head to head that day.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

I was reading back through the day when we had PB, CR and Autumn up for a vote and noticed something. When people were voting Autumn the wolves had to know he was Capone and could reveal to save himself, yet CR put a second vote on Autumn with other candidates who couldn't reveal themselves.

So you think the wolves avoided voting Autumn? Makes sense.

[Danny]

Yes, only two votes for him were DT and CR. With Autumn already hot in CR, I don't think CR votes for Autumn knowing he has the duke ability,

[Danny]

I am not voting for CR now even with his vote for me and knowing he probably won't be back.

[Danny]

Interesting that PB did not hop on either of mine or CR's vote when I now believe both CR and I to be villagers.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I am not voting for CR now even with his vote for me and knowing he probably won't be back.

I was still wrapping up my online errand. It's now done, so I'll be getting ready for work now. I hadn't planned on coming back here, but since I see you have found something that might incline you towards what I have been trying to say (but can't prove, alas), I'll give a little benefit at least and consider other viewpoints. But when I do come back, it will for sure be the last time (in about 15 mins), so if there's anything left to be said, say it now.

Back quickly to your point on Autumn, I was surprised he didn't duke to me. I wasn't afraid of it, because I'm a vanilla villager, although I would have been disappointed of course. When he chose not to duke to me, I was surprised. I also asked him why he duked to DT and not to me, but he never answered.

[Danny]

Any chance the wolves thinking PB, CR and I are just going to go around voting for each other planned to stay out of things today?

[Chief Rum]

Oh, FTR, I think Danny's find on me has some merit (of course, I would say that, but still...), and it's also not really an easy thing to find or consider. Danny the wolf would have been well within his gameplan to ignore that and point it out, since people have shown an inclination to vote for me anyway. Since he decided to bring that to light anyway, that tells me that, despite my read, he's likely not a wolf.

[Danny]

I'm continuing to look through old posts to see if I can find anything else. This is a tough vote.

[PurdueBrad]

Hey Danny, just noticed something. Take a look at the top 6 posters from this thread. Either the wolves have been incredibly quiet or, to go with your theory, I'm the lead wolf. You mentioned about letting us run around and vote for each other, that may be possible.

And CR is #7 actually.

[Danny]

As I said, we now know the wolves knew all along that Autumn was the kill target with Willie being the killer.

After that night kill, those of us that were discussing it trying to figure out what happened was primarily CR, PB and I with Autumn and Kwhit in it a bit as well. Autumn knew what really happened, but I wonder if a wolf would join in that conversation agreeing with Autumn (like PB did) or just stay out of it completely and let villagers make assumptions and guess.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Back quickly to your point on Autumn, I was surprised he didn't duke to me. I wasn't afraid of it, because I'm a vanilla villager, although I would have been disappointed of course. When he chose not to duke to me, I was surprised. I also asked him why he duked to DT and not to me, but he never answered.

My only issue with this here is it sounds like you knew Autumn was the duke before anyone else based on the way this reads.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

My only issue with this here is it sounds like you knew Autumn was the duke before anyone else based on the way this reads.

No, go back to when the posts were made. I never mentioned Autumn as Capone (I honestly thought he was a wolf, with all the crap he was coming up with, before Telle fingered him and he revealed).

My question to him was, of course, well after it was clear that he was the duke, after DT had already been duked to and no one had countered Autumn's reveal.

[Chief Rum]

I'm going to go on the theory that the wolves are letting the villagers lynch themselves. Poli was UTR for his game, and those of us posting a lot have done a lot of back and forth accusing. I think if there's a game where we should focus on UTR, it's this one. Not much info out there and bad records for the village to go off of, vote-wise--easy game to let the village cannibalize itself.

This is really my last post; I am literally out the door. So I hope it counts for something.

UNVOTE DANNY
VOTE J23

[Danny]

I was going to go PB or J23 as it was and based on the lack of activity and the chance that villagers may not even show up, I'm going to go with CR and hopefully (assuming he is not a wolf) not let the wolves divide our vote.

Vote J23

[Danny]

I will say that it's disappointing that J23, Kwhit and RealDeal are basically absent on a possible game deciding lynch.

[J23]

I'm at a bit of a loss today. There are a lot of people I figured would have been NK'd before tonight still out there which makes me suspicious.

That being said, the only known villager pointed at PB before their untimely demise this morning.

vote PurdueBrad

I'm still not sure I'm buying what you're selling since the duking PB. I may switch this up if I get a strong feeling about someone from their movement before deadline.

[J23]

Oops, looks like there was a page 14... catching up some more and may change that vote.

[KWhit]

Not absent any more.

The wife had the day off of work and she and I were out running a buttload of errands. I thought we'd be back around lunchtime, but instead we only finished up in time for me to run get my son from school and take him to baseball practice.

Anyhow, I'm around now. Interesting find Danny on CR. I am inclined to agree with you that it makes CR look fairly innocent.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Danny

I will say that it's disappointing that J23, Kwhit and RealDeal are basically absent on a possible game deciding lynch.

Sorry, work is hectic w/ a lot of catch-up work due to the snow out here, so I didn't get a chance to pop in during the day really. I also have class after work so I just got home now, and here I am.

[PurdueBrad]

I, for obvious reasons, would prefer to see a Real Deal-J23 run off then me up there but I'll throw a third on J23 now to self-protect:

vote J23

[J23]

So now it's 3 votes for me, 1 for PB.

The 3 votes for me are based on the fact that I'm UTR, but 0 votes for RD for being even more UTR?

If there's some other reasoning, I'd be happy to hear it and discuss. I'd rather not have the wolves win the game tonight.

[PurdueBrad]

Your vote to bury me when Autumn helped me out is why I'm on you. All I've got on RD is early vote history. You're both UTR, admittadly one more than the other.

[KWhit]

I keep going back and forth on the CR and Danny thing. It's entirely possible that they are the last 2 wolves trying to orchestrate end-game.

I still don't like the fact that Danny was trying to get us to avoid voting for Poli when we knew he was a wolf.

[KWhit]

At the time we were considering voting for Danny, it was 6-3. If we had lynched a villager that night it would have gone to 4-3 after night-kill and since one of the wolves left was the brutal we would have lost the game no matter what.

I just have a nagging suspicion that Danny was trying to get us to avoid the known wolf so that we would lose.

[J23]

I was trying to break the tie, and you had the short straw. I guess I can understand your vote to some extent, but Danny and CR are also piled on me for the same UTR reasons ignoring RD.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by KWhit

At the time we were considering voting for Danny, it was 6-3. If we had lynched a villager that night it would have gone to 4-3 after night-kill and since one of the wolves left was the brutal we would have lost the game no matter what.

I just have a nagging suspicion that Danny was trying to get us to avoid the known wolf so that we would lose.

That should say POLI (not Danny).

[KWhit]

Vote count anyone?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by KWhit

At the time we were considering voting for Danny, it was 6-3. If we had lynched a villager that night it would have gone to 4-3 after night-kill and since one of the wolves left was the brutal we would have lost the game no matter what.

I just have a nagging suspicion that Danny was trying to get us to avoid the known wolf so that we would lose.

So the implication is that Danny was playing the numbers then? I'm not sure, pretty risky endgame wise plus it backfired if he's a wolf. You and then Danny are my top two trusted players to I don't know if I would be willing to go down the Danny path yet.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Vote count anyone?

basic

J23: CR, Danny, PB
PB: J23

[J23]

As I posted earlier, I understand what Danny was trying to do (or what he was saying he was trying to do), so I don't know that I buy him being a wolf. If he was, then I guess he's pretty ballsy.

I'd be open to voting CR though, especially given he was on Autumn's suspect list. I'm of course a bit more flexible given that I don't want to get lynched tonight and end the game.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

So the implication is that Danny was playing the numbers then? I'm not sure, pretty risky endgame wise plus it backfired if he's a wolf. You and then Danny are my top two trusted players to I don't know if I would be willing to go down the Danny path yet.

I was considering Danny pretty trustworthy too. But that move of his keeps bothering me. We were at an endgame situation and he is asking us to avoid voting for the known wolf.

I'm not convinced he's a wolf, but I'm having trouble getting past that.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

So the implication is that Danny was playing the numbers then? I'm not sure, pretty risky endgame wise plus it backfired if he's a wolf. You and then Danny are my top two trusted players to I don't know if I would be willing to go down the Danny path yet.

How would you say it backfired?

We didn't go along with it, true. But it's not like the wolves are in a worse position that they would have been otherwise.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I was considering Danny pretty trustworthy too. But that move of his keeps bothering me. We were at an endgame situation and he is asking us to avoid voting for the known wolf.

I'm not convinced he's a wolf, but I'm having trouble getting past that.

In your read, if Danny is good then CR is good? If J23 is bad, who is his partner? I guess what I'm asking is what pairings do you see if Danny isn't bad because he has played a good villager game.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by KWhit

How would you say it backfired?

We didn't go along with it, true. But it's not like the wolves are in a worse position that they would have been otherwise.

True, there was little to no follow-up to it if he's a wolf, so backfired is way too strong a word. In fact, it turned out all reward and little risk because it's kind of dropped other than your follow up. I guess the wolves weren't really effected at all one way or another because they did get to take out the seer. But in your read, Danny (as wolf) would've cost them the easy shot at the seer and the nightkill of the other trusted player, Autumn. That's a lot to play with by trying to put off the lynch of the brutal although I do see the numbers play for the victory.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

In your read, if Danny is good then CR is good? If J23 is bad, who is his partner? I guess what I'm asking is what pairings do you see if Danny isn't bad because he has played a good villager game.

My gut tells me that Danny and CR either both good or both bad.

The same gut tells me that if J23 is bad, then it's slightly more likely that RealDeal is the other wolf.

But it's a minor gut feel - not very strong on either case.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

True, there was little to no follow-up to it if he's a wolf, so backfired is way too strong a word. In fact, it turned out all reward and little risk because it's kind of dropped other than your follow up. I guess the wolves weren't really effected at all one way or another because they did get to take out the seer. But in your read, Danny (as wolf) would've cost them the easy shot at the seer and the nightkill of the other trusted player, Autumn. That's a lot to play with by trying to put off the lynch of the brutal although I do see the numbers play for the victory.

I don't follow the bolded part. How would it have cost the wolves killing the seer and Autumn?

[J23]

unvote PB
vote RealDeal

Just noticed. Realdeal followed CR's vote every day except the day that CR was up for voting where he didn't vote. I'm thinking that if he's not involved in the game, that is an easy way to do a drive-by vote and then disappear.

I think CR and RD could very well be the last two wolves in the game.

[KWhit]

Danny, it looks like you're back.

Help me understand your play better that day.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I don't follow the bolded part. How would it have cost the wolves killing the seer and Autumn?

I guess what I mean is that Poli was the brutal so letting him get lynched got them the seer immediately and then they were able to nightkill Autumn. IF Danny drove a bad lynch, then they only get to hit the seer and the next day face the wrath of the village with both Danny and Poli outted. Does that make sense (it does in my head but that doesn't mean it does here)?