The Biden Presidency - 2020

[Brian Swartz]

Biden has underperformed my expectations, but of course been way better than Trump. I don't want him to run again just because I think his age is an issue at this point.

Democrats who can beat Trump at this point include basically anyone with a pulse. It would be possible to lose to him, but you'd have to really work hard at it. I don't think even Hillary could pull it off.

[Ksyrup]

I agree. Harris is a negative. I can't tell you how many Never Trumpers were good with Biden but had an extreme dislike for Harris. Plus, she didn't even do well in the primaries, and the potential future president thing is going to be a big deal in the next election. He would be well-served to move on from her.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Democrats who can beat Trump at this point include basically anyone with a pulse. It would be possible to lose to him, but you'd have to really work hard at it. I don't think even Hillary could pull it off.

Kamala?

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Biden has exceeded my overall expectations (not stumbling too much, bipartisan deals, foreign policy, and especially vs China) and stands the best chance of beating Trump, so I do want him to run again (unless he significantly declines).

I would strongly prefer another VP though as the backup, Kamala does not fill me with confidence.

It would be good for Biden to delay formally announcing until the very last minute just to see how Trump is doing in the GOP.

If he runs I would like to see him pick Whitmer or Kelly as his VP.

[Brian Swartz]

The thing about Kamala is, you don't dump a sitting VP the same way a sitting President doesn't not run for re-election. I view them as a package deal. We either get Biden/Harris or neither of them.

@Edward64 - as a national politician, I agree with you on Kamala. She's on the short list of Democrats that I think Trump would stand a chance against.

[Ksyrup]

That's conventional thinking, but not necessarily a winning strategy. We'll see which one they care more about.

[Ksyrup]

It's uniquely important with an 82 year old starting a 4 year term.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't disagree with you on either point. I also don't see any way it happens. There are some things you just don't do in politics, even if you know you should.

[flere-imsaho]

I mean, even Trump didn't switch out his VP for his second campaign, and he broke almost every other "rule" that existed.

[albionmoonlight]

Good rule of thumb:

The hysteria of various politicians during the balloon episode is a useful index of how seriously you should take them

[Ghost Econ]

404 - File or directory not found.

The balloon did not pose a military or physical threat. Still its intrusion into American airspace over several days was an unacceptable violation of U.S. sovereignty. The official said Chinese balloons briefly transited the continental United States at least three times during the prior administration.

I look forward to seeing how this lowers Edward64's opinion of Joe Biden.

[SirFozzie]

File under "You don't actually have to hand it to them."

It's gotta be frustrating to the R's that every time they get mad at something Biden did or didn't do and say "THIS NEVER WOULD HAVE HAPPENED UNDER A TRUMP ADMINISTRATION". it turns out shortly thereafter that, yeah, it happened multiple times in a Trump Administration. It's like a dragon stoking the fire then trips and actually swallows its own fire.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I mean, even Trump didn't switch out his VP for his second campaign, and he broke almost every other "rule" that existed.

Because Pence was useful up to that point to appeal to mainstream GOPers. There was no reason.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

File under "You don't actually have to hand it to them."

It's gotta be frustrating to the R's that every time they get mad at something Biden did or didn't do and say "THIS NEVER WOULD HAVE HAPPENED UNDER A TRUMP ADMINISTRATION". it turns out shortly thereafter that, yeah, it happened multiple times in a Trump Administration. It's like a dragon stoking the fire then trips and actually swallows its own fire.

It's still useful at the time as a cheap sound bite when their voting public doesn't care about the facts anyway. They see these points made on GOP media and dont see the aftermath when the truth is reported in mainstream media or these people fumble all over themselves answering questions on Meet the Press.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

404 - File or directory not found.

I look forward to seeing how this lowers Edward64's opinion of Joe Biden.

Hey, I like Joe. As a whole he has many more pluses than minuses.

But to respond, it doesn’t. Joe wanted it shot down, experts said wait because not worth the risk. They publicly came out and said they told Joe this. I’m okay with that.

Now I do have doubts if the military actually knew about the balloon when they should have e.g. before entering US space.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

File under "You don't actually have to hand it to them."

It's gotta be frustrating to the R's that every time they get mad at something Biden did or didn't do and say "THIS NEVER WOULD HAVE HAPPENED UNDER A TRUMP ADMINISTRATION". it turns out shortly thereafter that, yeah, it happened multiple times in a Trump Administration. It's like a dragon stoking the fire then trips and actually swallows its own fire.

They don't exist in reality. These are the same people holding SS hostage to get what they want when we need to raise the debt ceiling because THEIR guy is responsible for 25% of the total debt with nothing to show but tax cuts for the rich. These people aren't in any way grounded in reality

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Good rule of thumb:

I'm honestly surprised that MTG didn't suggest Biden use his Jewish Space Lasers to shoot it down. Missed opportunity.

[Edward64]

Pretty good news. Not sure it’s that significant because Trump likely has other sources but good that more money will go to another GOP other than Trump.

The deep-pocketed network associated with billionaire Charles Koch is preparing to throw its money and weight behind a single Republican candidate in the 2024 presidential primary – in a move that could significantly reshape the GOP field.:
:
The memo does not mention Donald Trump, but an official with AFP Action confirmed to CNN that the network is not planning to support the former president’s White House bid.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Pretty good news. Not sure it’s that significant because Trump likely has other sources but good that more money will go to another GOP other than Trump.

The Koch brothers have never supported him. They instead concentrated on GOP legislative campaign in 2016 and 2020, after the 2016 primary were the guys they would have liked lost.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I'm honestly surprised that MTG didn't suggest Biden use his Jewish Space Lasers to shoot it down. Missed opportunity.

I don't think the Jews would give their space lasers to a Catholic like Biden.

[albionmoonlight]

I think comments like this (from the Dallas Fed Survey of retailers) are so funny.

The last stimulus check was in March 2021! Enhanced unemployment benefits ended two years ago! The Child Tax Credit has expired! You are not competing with new government transfer programs! pic.twitter.com/0onqbrFhWO

— Joey Politano ��️‍�� (@JosephPolitano) February 6, 2023

[Ksyrup]

For the Koch thing to succeed, they have to convince a bunch of hopefuls to stand down and coalesce behind one candidate against Trump. If they can't do that, no amount of mony in the world is going to sway Trump voters in a 10-12 candidate field. The only way to win is to consolidate the anti-Trump vote behind one person, early on. I don't bet on it happening.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

For the Koch thing to succeed, they have to convince a bunch of hopefuls to stand down and coalesce behind one candidate against Trump. If they can't do that, no amount of mony in the world is going to sway Trump voters in a 10-12 candidate field. The only way to win is to consolidate the anti-Trump vote behind one person, early on. I don't bet on it happening.

this has been my stance all along and I agree. Everyone is going to think they can beak a weakened Trump and his base will lead him to a primary victory with a minority of the vote.

The interesting thing will be if Trump does win the nomination do people fall in line again or bail on him.

[JPhillips]

We know the answer to the second part. Even people like Hogan are saying they will support the nominee.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

We know the answer to the second part. Even people like Hogan are saying they will support the nominee.

It is amazing that even in 2023 people still have this idea that there's a notable #NeverTrump group within the GOP.

If you are anti-Trump you left the GOP years ago. Anyone who still calls themselves a Republican is pro-Trump (or a very vocal anti-Trump like Liz Cheney, but you can count those people on one hand).

[Ksyrup]

Yeah, Hogan has fallen back in line. His latest thing is "I'll vote GOP but I don't think it will be Trump" - that's as anti-Trump as he'll be now. Even Sununu is walking back his comments last year about Trump being crazy as a "joke."

Anyone who wants a career in the current party they are in will continue to outwardly support their party. They may test the winds from time to time hoping they start to blow different ways, but once they encounter a stiff breeze back at them, they stand down. And yes, this is a current GOP issue only because of the Trump threat, but it's no less true on the other side. It's just that the consequences aren't nearly as immediate or drastic. Both sides are almost entirely party over country.

[Lathum]

I meant more the money, Murdoch, et.... Obviously to go against Trump is political suicide for those in office.

[albionmoonlight]

State of the Union is tomorrow.

I'd love to have a President go back to the old days and just deliver it in writing.

One of the more pointless events on the political calendar, IMO.

[Ksyrup]

It's good for approximately 1/2 of Congress to get in some calisthenics at least once every year.

[cuervo72]

I generally try to avoid them.

[GrantDawg]

Haven't watched in years. Even Pre-Trump, why watch when you can get the highlights immediately on your phone? I will do something more entertaining. At least Obama was a good orator. Clinton was as well. Bush, Trump and Biden are really painful to watch try to give high-oratory speeches.

[NobodyHere]

Rainmaker will be sure to like this proposal:

In State of the Union, Biden will propose quadrupling the tax on corporate stock buybacks - MarketWatch

Not that it will ever get past the House.

[albionmoonlight]

Probably too late to put it in the State of the Union, but maybe Biden could throw in a line or two about the Democrats being against putting kids back into the mines:

A new Iowa bill would roll back child labor laws, allowing 14 to 17-year-olds to work in mining, meatpacking, demolition, operating guillotine shears, and other dangerous jobs. Under the business-backed bill, employers wouldn't be civilly liable if kids are injured or killed.

— More Perfect Union (@MorePerfectUS) February 7, 2023

[sterlingice]

Anything to avoid raising wages

Also, the drastically increasing liability shield for companies over the last couple of decades reminds us just how screwed we are as individuals.

SI

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Funny how a $1200 check a couple years ago upended the economy in their mind but the billions in handouts through PPP and other pandemic programs that subsidized businesses is ignored.

[Edward64]

CNN article says China is in crisis mode in responding to the balloon(s).

Just find a scape goat (done, the weather guy), say sorry won’t happen again (but don’t passively threaten the ‘victim’), and invite Blinken to visit in March.

Then, if it wasn’t Xi, he should take care of this privately.

[NobodyHere]

I didn't watch the SotU but according to liberal forums Joe Biden just solved the Social InSecurity problem.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I didn't watch the SotU but according to liberal forums Joe Biden just solved the Social InSecurity problem.

Completely played republicans on that one.

Not bad for a guy suffering from dementia that care barely speak. Or maybe that was one of the actors playing him.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Completely played republicans on that one.

Not bad for a guy suffering from dementia that care barely speak. Or maybe that was one of the actors playing him.

Yes he sure did. Man he really abused them in that speech. They stepped repeatedly into the bear trap.

[Ksyrup]

When is Trump's SOTU for the "real" government?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

When is Trump's SOTU for the "real" government?

His former Press Secretary already took care of that.

[GrantDawg]

"Who, me?"

On the left, Republican Senator Mike Lee feigns outrage during the State of the Union when President Biden suggests that some Republicans want to cut Social Security and Medicare.

On the right, Mike Lee says he wants to get rid of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. pic.twitter.com/vi6pYQmhZX

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) February 8, 2023

[bronconick]

Then we have Rick Scott wanting to sunset not Social Security and Medicare, but all federal legislation. Because Congress is known for passing necessary bills in a timely and expedient manner.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Then we have Rick Scott wanting to sunset not Social Security and Medicare, but all federal legislation. Because Congress is known for passing necessary bills in a timely and expedient manner.

I don't want to live in a world where whether we have an army or not depends on Lauren Bobert's mood that day.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I don't want to live in a world where whether we have an army or not depends on Lauren Bobert's mood that day.

They'll make exceptions for things like the military, energy subsidies, tax cuts for the wealthy, etc.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Rainmaker will be sure to like this proposal:

In State of the Union, Biden will propose quadrupling the tax on corporate stock buybacks - MarketWatch

Not that it will ever get past the House.

I don't think that will ever happen for obvious reasons. Dems could have tried to pass it when they had control over everything. I think they're only proposing it now because it'd be DOA in the House.

Dems love the idea of taxing the rich when they don't have power just as Republicans start caring about the deficit when they don't have power.

[Edward64]

Probably didn’t happen but he did go into great detail in his substack article. WH denies it of course but I would like to see more analysis/rebuttal of the article

Seymour Hersh claims US Navy behind Nord Stream 2 pipeline explosion

WASHINGTON — Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh has alleged US Navy divers laid bombs that destroyed the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea last September, drawing a denial from the Pentagon Wednesday.

Hersh, who scooped journalism’s top award more than five decades ago for exposing the My Lai massacre of Vietnamese civilians by US troops in 1968, cited an unnamed source in reporting on Substack that Americans planted remotely triggered explosives that wrecked three of the four pipelines built to carry natural gas from Russia to Europe.

[GrantDawg]

Intresting. They knew the balloon had signal intelligence equipment, but they also knew that the military was able to prevent it from being effective.
Chinese spy balloon contained technology to monitor communication signals, US says | CNN Politics

[Edward64]

Hard to believe Xi did not know about it. I wonder if the intel is based on good info/humint or just speculation.

The US says Xi didn't know about the balloon. That raises even more questions | CNN

Washington believes the balloon shot down over the Atlantic on Saturday is part of an extensive Chinese surveillance program – but that Xi Jinping, China’s most powerful leader in decades, may not have been aware of the mission.

The assessment was communicated to American lawmakers in briefings Thursday, according to CNN reporting – and if true, could point to what analysts say would be a significant lack of coordination within the Chinese system at a fraught period of China-US relations.

Biden officials expressed the belief that both the senior leadership of the People’s Liberation Army and Chinese Communist Party, including Xi, were also unaware of the balloon mission over the US, and that China is still trying to figure out how this happened, a source familiar with the Thursday briefing to Congress told CNN.

Below is more likely IMO. Maybe watch for any leadership changes shortly as a hint if this was done with or without Xi's knowledge.

But some observers of elite Chinese politics remain skeptical that Xi would have been unaware of a balloon dispatched to US airspace or that lower-level officials would conduct such a mission that could impact US-China relations without his knowledge.
:
Instead, Xi may have been comfortable with an incident that diverted the attention of a public frustrated amid a faltering economy after years under the recently dismantled zero-Covid policy – but underestimated the US domestic response that resulted in the postponed talks, Wu said.

[JPhillips]

At this very moment, the greatest minds in the Labour party are scheming to fuck this up.

����#UK, general election poll:

MRP seat projection:

⏫#Labour: 509 seats (+306)
��#SNP: 50 (+2)
⏬#Conservatives: 45 (-320)
⏫#LibDems: 23 (+12)
⏸️#PC: 4
⏸️#Green: 1

Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP), 05/02/23 pic.twitter.com/8u67jybwVY

— World Elects (@ElectsWorld) February 9, 2023