Werewolf LXXII: Chess (Checkmate!)

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by KWhit

What do you guys think about the theory that one of the white rooks is a wolf (to balance the black rook wolf - hoops)?

I'd like to hear some thoughts on that. Because we could possibly gain a lot from having them reveal.

We would be able to look closely at their voting history. And the other white knight, Jackal, would know who to scan tonight if they let him know what side of the board they were on. That way, he could target a scan on the one that he is closest to. I worry that this kind of coordination is the only way we're going to get much out of our knight scans because it's going to be unlikely for the person chosen for the scan to be in range of the knight doing the scanning.

What do you guys think?

Not likely.

That would have the Wolves knowing the identity of all the good rooks in the game.

[claphamsa]

I need to vote as Im gogni to a meeting and not sure ill be back

vote path

not really any reason, just super busy, and need to vote so i cna move tonight. hopefully ill move it later!

[st.cronin]

That's a good point, Neon.

UNVOTE NEON CHAOS

[st.cronin]

VOTE LATHUM

[path12]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I'm sure the wolves are hoping you lynch me, because I'm a safe guard each night for the rooks without any other pieces being revealed. I'll take suggestions on who to scan tonight if you like; there are a fair number of pieces around me.

How many pieces can you see and which colors are they? You don't need to specify which pieces you see, just the number and colors.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Not likely.

That would have the Wolves knowing the identity of all the good rooks in the game.

I thought about that. But since the wolves can communicate with their piece partner, we have to assume they already know a TON of information. It may be they know that info anyway. If one of the white rooks is a wolf, they DO already know it.

I'm just throwing the idea out there and thinking out loud. I don't know if it's the right thing to do or not. But right now, the wolves have all the information and we need to catch up on the information where we can.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by path12

How many pieces can you see and which colors are they? You don't need to specify which pieces you see, just the number and colors.

Eight, seven of which are white.

[oliegirl]

OK guys, I'm here...crazy day at work so far...

I agree that the chances that Hoops partner is also a wolf are slim, and also am thinking that one of the white rooks is likely a wolf.

As for votes, I'm leaning away from NC at this point, I have a reason to think he's good - but can't elaborate at this point b/c it would involve revealing my role and I am not ready to do that. I'm going to do a little digging and might be able to give some more information shortly...

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I thought about that. But since the wolves can communicate with their piece partner, we have to assume they already know a TON of information. It may be they know that info anyway. If one of the white rooks is a wolf, they DO already know it.

I'm just throwing the idea out there and thinking out loud. I don't know if it's the right thing to do or not. But right now, the wolves have all the information and we need to catch up on the information where we can.

(puff) this is my thinking, I mean, it's gotta be overkill to have wolves intercommunicate, perhaps they can chat with their wolf counterpart on their side of the board, but cannot chat with their other color wolf counterparts until they reach that side or vicinity...it's just a giant advantage...

the other thing is that, all this talk of wolves could be just to allow one color to get moving against the other...there is a bigger game being played...

(puff puff) What's that Lestrade? Oh yes, well, if it's another case is it...just as long as it isn't a Hounds of the Baskervilles case...I hate dogs...

[jeheinz72]

Vote Lathum

Strange pattern of votes thus far. Votes No Lynch early when it was 4-3 NL over hoops

Then when it was 6 NL, 3 hoops, 3 jackal he switches to Jackal, avoiding hoops (why the initial no lynch vote then?)

Late in the day when it is 6 KWhit, 4 hoops, 4 Jackal he then throws his vote away onto Cronin without any explaination and he repeats a vote on Cronin today in a drive by

[st.cronin]

Qwik, the rules specifically say the wolves can communicate with each other.

[Lathum]

cronin is being insanely hypocritical.

Yesterday he has a big speech about voting for the candidate you think is best, then blasts KWhit for doing it.

Then today he blasts me for a hit and run then does the same thing.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

cronin is being insanely hypocritical.

Yesterday he has a big speech about voting for the candidate you think is best, then blasts KWhit for doing it.

Then today he blasts me for a hit and run then does the same thing.

I'm agree.

[Passacaglia]

FYI, in an hour I'm heading out for a lunch interview. I'll probably be out for an hour and a half, returning 30 minutes before deadline (but possibly later). So if you have any questions you want me to answer, get them in sooner. Also, I had a sick day yesterday, so I was home to answer IMs, but I'm not home there today -- use google talk, email, or PMs.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Lathum

cronin is being insanely hypocritical.

Yesterday he has a big speech about voting for the candidate you think is best, then blasts KWhit for doing it.

Then today he blasts me for a hit and run then does the same thing.

Clearly you have not understood what I have written. I was on KWhit yesterday because he hemmed and hawed on whether he wanted the player he was voting for to actually be lynched. That, to me, is classic wolf behavior - "I'm voting for this player, but I don't really think they're a wolf, but we have to have a lynch, and I have to vote for somebody, blah blah blah." That was what I was getting from KWhit yesterday.

Today I'm voting for you because so far, as far as I can tell, you have the worst voting record of anybody - two votes for a villager. Your rationale for voting for me can be turned around on you - why are so hellbent on sowing distrust? We lynched a wolf yesterday - its perfectly legitimate to re-read his posts and start to put people in trust/distrust categories. Why aren't you willing to concede that? You can disagree with my logic on who to trust and distrust, but not the imperative to have varying levels of trust.

[Sonic Youth]

The other thing to consider for a day one, is how conveniant it can be to hide behind the I don't like no lynch voting, but use it as a cover to place a vote on someone too. Though from yesterday, the only way that would work(no lynch) is if everyone posted what they saw. No one really has yet have they? Which would mean that it isn't viable. Not because it doesn't give us any information, but because no one would be lynched. We have plenty of information, but just that there is 3 main factions, but 1 is always knowing more where to target, and the rest won't share. Thus it can make using a No Lynch vote a great pit stop placement, like I did for instance, but also a place of suspicion(like St.Cronin's vote for KWhit because he went that route early on).

[Sonic Youth]

Originally Posted by Sonic Youth

Is it as odd to you as it is to me, that of all the white pieces targetted, that the Knight was the one taken down? Does that feel specific to you like it does to me?

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I can't speak for the others, but I got a bad vibe off of mccollins hunt of KWhit. It felt like an overt attempt to drum up KWhit as a target, beyond what his actions called for. I also agree that a vote for hoospguy, especially when he seemed in the clear at deadline, is not as compelling a reason to put someone in the COT at this point.

Right now, I only trust KWhit and myself, and I don't think my partner is a wolf either (although that's vertainly not proven).

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

No. I thnk Barkeep was targeted, not the Knight. The wolves just got lucky. They went for one of the top players not under suspicion (of course, hoops was the only top top player by most estimation under suspicion, and he was a wolf, so they were free to choose any other non-wolf top player).

If you go off of Anxiety's WW player ranking, it was Lathum or BK, and Lathum always is more likely to get lynched with his style of play. So going for BK makes sense.

Of course, I don't think anyone would have batted an eye if the wolves had a different idea of who was dangerous and killed me or cronin or Anxiety off, or any other of a number of strong players in this game.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Actually, wait a sec. Pet theory which may prove useful.

What is the chance a knight is a wolf? Just on sheer numbers. Let's say we assume four wolves (two per side), random piece selection, and take out the kings. So there is a 22% (2 wolves/9 each side) chance of any given player on a side being a wolf. And with two knights, each role has the same 22% chance of the wolf role picking out a knight. First time you role for wolf, 22% chance that wolf is a knight, or 78% chance he is not. Let's say a knight doesn't get hit. Now there is a 2 in 8 (25% chance) of hitting a knight the second time around, removing the player who is already a wolf. That is a 75% chance of wolf =! a knight. Our chance of not having a knight be a wolf on any side is (78%) times (75%), which is (7/9) * (3/4) = (21/36), down to 7/12, or 58.3% chance that a side does not have a wolf knight.

But my theory only needs one wolf knight to work. Each side has a 58.3% chance of NOT having a wolf knight. But the chance neither side has a wolf knight? 58.3% * 58.3% = (7/12) * (7/12) = (49/144) = 34%.

Guys, there is only a 34% chance that we don't have a wolf knight on this board from the get go. Which means we likely DO have a wolf knight.

Okay, let's say you're this wolf knight. Likely enough, your partner knight is not a wolf. In fact, you will know this (you know who the wolves are), so we will assume the partner knight is not a wolf. And you know his name. And you know knights are about as close to a seer as this game has. People, the wolves were likely handed the name of a seer from the start of this game.

That name was Barkeep, and he was betrayed by partner, the other white knight.

And we know one other knight already--The Jackal. He may or may not be the partner knight. But the point is, two other people already know if he is or not--the other knights still alive. So I say, vote for The Jackal. His partner should reveal and come to his defense if The Jackal was not BK's partner. And if he was, the other two knights should both reveal and reveal him for who he is (rooks, be prepared to protect our good knights).

Revealing those knights is risky, but with the benefit of getting another wolf this early in the game? I say it's worth a shot, especially with three remaining bodyguards.

Not going to say there isn't risk (34% chance of a wolf knight is hardly a shoo in), and if The Jackal is not Barkeep's partner, revealing yourself as The Jackal's partner will not reveal BK's actual partner--we will just know it was the other white knight (and should try to kill him in the chess game).

But I thought I would throw this theory out there and let you guys hash it out while I am at work (wish I could be around, but I won't be able to).

VOTE THE JACKAL

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Nice one KWhit. You're certainly on a roll at the moment. I think an analysis of the vote changes yesterday may be pretty informative - although not overly complimentary to me.

Anyway, I agree that it is a bit suspicious how the wolves managed to target a knight on the first day when BK certainly didn't seem to be giving out any vibes as a knght (that I could detect, anyway). My only doubts are whether hoops would be so obvious to target the partner of a wolf knight. Seems a bit too overt and obvious (as I commented at the time in a throwaway statement).

The problem with pushing Jackal and relying on his partner to back him up is that if he is the black knight then we're forcing another knight to out themselves. I'm wondering if the Jackal shouldn't just reveal his colour. If he's white then we know he isn't going to have a partner and he fits Chief's profile - if he claims he's black and there's no refutation then we know to look elsewhere. If he claims he's black and there is a refutation then we know he (or the other person) is lying and we lynch him. On the other hand I think it would be very sloppy play by the wolves to kill Jackal's partner at this stage if he was a wolf as it's making him look very suspicious.

I don't know. As has been pointed out Pass' scheme to hide colours to prevent mass reveals seems not to have worked, as the entire back row (at least) know what colour they are - and the pawns will probably get a good idea soon (if they haven't already worked it out).

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Thanks, Narcizo. Excellent idea to take my theory a step further. Having The Jackal announce his color would certainly lessen the risk of this plan.

I, too, agree it is unlikely The Jackal was BK's partner because that would seem to be too up front. But it's something we can rule out now (or we get a wolf, no lose there).

For me, this chain of sequence look weird. First Chief Rum says there isn't much in my comment on and that it was probably because it was BK and not as we find out later, possibly because he is a Knight.

He then goes and cast suspicion on McCollins. One of 3 who had a vote stay on Hoops. Wouldn't it have been better to talk about say, Heiniz who cast the third vote on KWhit, or Narcizo who cast the 5th? Not to mention that it was ntndeacon with the first against him, and StCronin who cast the second.

What's this? Oh, it looks like something I suggested earlier. Just a little bit more fleshed out. And a vote to boot. I distinctly recall an earlier post saying that it was probably nothing more than Anxieties player ranking. Why then go on about it possibly being Jackal then? If it was, it's a bit obvious. Maybe that's the point. Still, it's odd to my eyes.

Narkle was included at this point, more so because of how he interacted with CR. I'm not sure what to make of him yet. The suggestion of colour was a good one, though probably so-so for Jackal. Jackal's scan of Hoops is not helping him, but that can happen as he did look periferal and a likely scan target. The only other thing is that Hoops was too far away to actually scan to get a reading(distance between a black Rook to a white Knight) for Jackal. Since no-one else has come out with a counter to Jackal's reveal, then we have to assume that he is BK's Knight partner.

This is my reasoning. And so I will vote this way.

Vote Chief Rum.

[Neon_Chaos]

Here's my theory on who the wolves are...

I'm not sure if it's entirely random...

At first, my theory was...

One rook, one knight, one bishop, and one queen are Wolves.

Wolves
Though you are a member of your team, you have different victory conditions. While the two teams are concerned with killing the enemy King, your goal is to kill all non-wolves, leaving just yourselves and the two Kings. A wolf may not be a King. Each night you may kill one player. You may not kill a King, but if you attempt to kill a King before he has been outed through the process of being a top vote-getter (or if it happened at the end of the day before your night kill), then you get two kill attempts the next night. The wolves will not be able to convert anyone to their team -- there is no mechanism where someone would become a wolf after the game has started. You may communicate via PM with the other wolves.

But then, I checked out the Wolves description... not sure if that means that the Wolves for sure don't know who the Kings are... but seeing as how they didn't seem to use this ability in their favor, they don't seem to know who the Kings are... hence, both queens are probably good.

So...

1 rook wolf (hoops)
1 knight wolf (????)
1 bishop wolf (????)
1 or 2 pawn wolves

Which, if true, means that one knight (Barkeep), a rook (hoops' PM partner), and a bishop are player identities that the Wolves already know.

Or...

I could be overthinking things...

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Clearly you have not understood what I have written. I was on KWhit yesterday because he hemmed and hawed on whether he wanted the player he was voting for to actually be lynched. That, to me, is classic wolf behavior - "I'm voting for this player, but I don't really think they're a wolf, but we have to have a lynch, and I have to vote for somebody, blah blah blah." That was what I was getting from KWhit yesterday.

I know this is going to get me brow-beaten after yesterday but is it possible that we had two wolves up yesterday and they chose to sacrifice the one that was playing above the radar and the one that dared suspicion and thus allowed KWhit to gain trust? The KWhit-St. Cronin dynamic led to me voting Cronin but I could've just as easily gone KWhit as well. Was any trust really gained yesterday?

[st.cronin]

Neon, the wolves wouldn't want to try to kill a king, would they?

[path12]

Originally Posted by KWhit

What do you guys think about the theory that one of the white rooks is a wolf (to balance the black rook wolf - hoops)?

I'd like to hear some thoughts on that. Because we could possibly gain a lot from having them reveal.

We would be able to look closely at their voting history. And the other white knight, Jackal, would know who to scan tonight if they let him know what side of the board they were on. That way, he could target a scan on the one that he is closest to. I worry that this kind of coordination is the only way we're going to get much out of our knight scans because it's going to be unlikely for the person chosen for the scan to be in range of the knight doing the scanning.

What do you guys think?

I don't buy (at this point) the balanced wolf idea. I do believe the number of wolves are balanced between teams, however I think that the wolves were then generated randomly excepting the King. I can't think of a good reason why as a GM one would balance them within actual pieces.

One thing I'm wondering though. Can the wolf that makes the kill also move on the board? In that case knowing what pieces are where makes more sense in trying to find wolves.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I know this is going to get me brow-beaten after yesterday but is it possible that we had two wolves up yesterday and they chose to sacrifice the one that was playing above the radar and the one that dared suspicion and thus allowed KWhit to gain trust? The KWhit-St. Cronin dynamic led to me voting Cronin but I could've just as easily gone KWhit as well. Was any trust really gained yesterday?

I think that's possible but unlikely.

[Neon_Chaos]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Neon, the wolves wouldn't want to try to kill a king, would they?

I'm thinking... if they know who the Kings are, they would've probably gone for one of them yesterday in order to have 2 night kills today. I know I would've if I were a wolf, just to create confusion.

Just saying.

Then again, they killed Barkeep... is it coincidence that he's a knight... and Jackal's partner?

[path12]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Eight, seven of which are white.

How many of those are pawns?

[st.cronin]

Having 2 night kills makes it more likely that one of those might be blocked. I wouldn't have done that.

[path12]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

and also am thinking that one of the white rooks is likely a wolf.

Why?

[Lathum]

cdonin, your logic is laughable.

you are voting for me because I have to worst voting record?

On day 2.

Are you kidding?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Lathum

cdonin, your logic is laughable.

you are voting for me because I have to worst voting record?

On day 2.

Are you kidding?

No. Who should I vote for? The Jackal? The theories around him are ok, but my instinct says that hoops would have played yesterday a lot differently if he was on the same team as The Jackal. Qwikshot has been consistently wrong about the rules, but that's not necessarily wolfish. Ntndeacon? Maybe, he's also got a bad voting record. Heinz? Narcizo? I'm thinking about it.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by path12

How many of those are pawns?

Six, and I think there are three different players in there. Why do you ask?

[The Jackal]

dola

I'm only curious because I don't want to give too much info away about board placement in case you're trying to get the upperhand for the black team - though I've in no way really revealed where my teammates are, persay.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

No. Who should I vote for? The Jackal? The theories around him are ok, but my instinct says that hoops would have played yesterday a lot differently if he was on the same team as The Jackal. Qwikshot has been consistently wrong about the rules, but that's not necessarily wolfish. Ntndeacon? Maybe, he's also got a bad voting record. Heinz? Narcizo? I'm thinking about it.

and your instics suited you so well yesterday with your suspicoun of kwhit

[Lathum]

and Heinzy, I know why you voted me, I'm onto you buddy

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Lathum

and your instics suited you so well yesterday with your suspicoun of kwhit

My instincts are frequently wrong.

[Lathum]

Cronin, your continued reference to peoples voting records after one vote is beyond suspicous.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

I'm thinking... if they know who the Kings are, they would've probably gone for one of them yesterday in order to have 2 night kills today. I know I would've if I were a wolf, just to create confusion.

Just saying.

Then again, they killed Barkeep... is it coincidence that he's a knight... and Jackal's partner?

Kings can't be killed by wolves.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

and Heinzy, I know why you voted me, I'm onto you buddy

I think I made it pretty clear. You avoided a vote for hoops like the plague yesterday.

Granted, I didn't vote for him either so I'm not really in a place to talk...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I think I made it pretty clear. You avoided a vote for hoops like the plague yesterday.

Granted, I didn't vote for him either so I'm not really in a place to talk...

c'mon heinzy, thats not the real reason. YOu and I both know it.

[st.cronin]

Wait a minute, I think The Jackal is lying about the board.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

Kings can't be killed by wolves.

Nevermind, I read it as an attack on a king, rather than a run on voting a king to get a night kill.

I /am/ at work doing this...(puff puff puff)

[st.cronin]

UNVOTE LATHUM
VOTE THE JACKAL

[st.cronin]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure The Jackal is lying about the board, meaning:

His board is a composite of what the wolves can see, and he slipped up about what he *should* be able to see.

[st.cronin]

Basically, he's seeing a piece he shouldn't be able to see if he's actually a knight.

[mccollins]

After a quiet night, all these random (and drawn out) theories are a bit to process. With 2.5 hours til deadline, I'm surprised we don't have more votes out there. I have a few in my slightly distrust category, but I'm not sure where I'll place my vote yet.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Basically, he's seeing a piece he shouldn't be able to see if he's actually a knight.

This is how he should be able to see pieces if he's a knight:

You can see one space away from you, plus anywhere you would be eligible to move.

What are you suggesting he goofed with?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

c'mon heinzy, thats not the real reason. YOu and I both know it.

Haha, yeah, I'm still bitter about the night 1 kill.

Nah, if I was, you'd have had my vote Day One. It's a mere bonus to this current thought of mine.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Basically, he's seeing a piece he shouldn't be able to see if he's actually a knight.

I believe that the Jackal was in a rush for real world physical theraphy and scanned for hoops at my bequest because I had a theory that all the knights should scan him for validity of whether he was a wolf or not (knights can't identify roles other than werewolf - after reading the rules since I'm consistently wrong on the rules)...

However, Jackal probably thought he was doomed and didn't plan a contigency due to real life and figuring he wasn't going to exist much further.

He got nothing because hoops was gone from the board, regardless of location, had hoops still been in play I figure Jackal would have gotten a "not in this location" note...

(puffing away)

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by mccollins

What are you suggesting he goofed with?

I don't want to give away my role, but trust me, he is claiming to see a piece that he can't see.

[Qwikshot]

Since knights are right next to rooks, he should have been able to see him, unless he moved prior to scanning...

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't want to give away my role, but trust me, he is claiming to see a piece that he can't see.

But he didn't get any information, so what did he see?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Haha, yeah, I'm still bitter about the night 1 kill.

Nah, if I was, you'd have had my vote Day One. It's a mere bonus to this current thought of mine.

that not it either.