Invasion of Ukraine

[molson]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Screw that, sanctions until they give up on Crimea.

How about until Putin goes?

Maybe that's not realistic but, it seems like there must be a permanent changing of the relationship involving this Russian regime, regardless of how things shake out from here.

[cuervo72]

Yeah, I mean I'd love that. But we'll see. If there is any treatment of him other than pariah from here on out...

[CrimsonFox]

Who had Rezantsev in the deadpool?

[sterlingice]

Apparently, this topic has its own wikipedia page now:
List of Russian generals killed during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia

SI

[QuikSand]

This really is quite something. Wait for the total admonishment of Hungary’s Viktor Orban. pic.twitter.com/zVrkwNY1eL

— Jack Parrock (@jackeparrock) March 25, 2022

Just masterful.

[RainMaker]

And remember the people in the United States that have supported and laundered Orban's autocratic regime.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

This really is quite something. Wait for the total admonishment of Hungary’s Viktor Orban. pic.twitter.com/zVrkwNY1eL
— Jack Parrock (@jackeparrock) March 25, 2022

Just masterful.

Actually, I like how it wasn't a total admonishment of Orban. He called him out but in a "you haven't chosen so far but you can still choose the right path" way, not in a "you're an awful person" way and then appealed to him on his own terms with his own history. It was really well done.

SI

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

And remember the people in the United States that have supported and laundered Orban's autocratic regime.

I wonder if there is more than a dozen people in the US who even know who Orban is.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I wonder if there is more than a dozen people in the US who even know who Orban is.

The most-watched and influential cable news show recently spent a week broadcasting from Hungary spreading propaganda about Orban. He's an incredibly popular figure in right-wing media. CPAC is being hosted in Hungary in a couple of months where Orban will be a keynote speaker.

The former President put out a press release and e-mail blast to millions of his followers endorsing Orban. The former Vice President recently spoke alongside Orban at a conference in Budapest. And a number of members of Congress have shown their support.

You can't memory-hole that stuff.

[Swaggs]

In looking at the list of Russian Generals, I noticed that they are mostly all in the mid-40s, while US Generals are typically in their late 50s. Anyone have insight into why their most decorated leaders are so young? Or are the ranks not equivalent?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

In looking at the list of Russian Generals, I noticed that they are mostly all in the mid-40s, while US Generals are typically in their late 50s. Anyone have insight into why their most decorated leaders are so young? Or are the ranks not equivalent?

Just a guess, but Putin's first premiership started in 1999. That would mean 50+ yead old generals started pre-Putin while 40 year olds have always been under his thumb.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The most-watched and influential cable news show recently spent a week broadcasting from Hungary spreading propaganda about Orban. He's an incredibly popular figure in right-wing media. CPAC is being hosted in Hungary in a couple of months where Orban will be a keynote speaker.

The former President put out a press release and e-mail blast to millions of his followers endorsing Orban. The former Vice President recently spoke alongside Orban at a conference in Budapest. And a number of members of Congress have shown their support.

You can't memory-hole that stuff.

I guess I'm not up to date on the latest Trump rallies

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Just a guess, but Putin's first premiership started in 1999. That would mean 50+ yead old generals started pre-Putin while 40 year olds have always been under his thumb.

That was my thought, as well - anyone 50s+ who could be a threat was already shuffled out

SI

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Just a guess, but Putin's first premiership started in 1999. That would mean 50+ yead old generals started pre-Putin while 40 year olds have always been under his thumb.

That makes sense. Kind of crazy to think about what the "bench" for generals in Russia is going to look like whenever this resolves. Seems like there is the potential to have almost a generational gap in experience if things keep going in this direction.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Just a guess, but Putin's first premiership started in 1999. That would mean 50+ yead old generals started pre-Putin while 40 year olds have always been under his thumb.

From what I understand this is accurate.

[NobodyHere]

Billionaire Abramovich, Ukrainian peace negotiators hit by suspected poisoning -reports

[RainMaker]

That's pretty wild if he's going after Abramovich.

Remember when Russia released a chemical weapon in the UK that killed someone and made others gravely ill and it was just kind of blown off?

[RainMaker]

Actually, the poisoning story is now being debunked. Bellingcat is not a great source for news.

...Ihor Zhovkva - Deputy Head of President's Office - speaking to Newshour, @bbcworldservice.
He said he hadn't spoken to Abramovich or his people, but "the members of the Ukrainian delegation are fine; I was in contact with one of them, and they said the story was false."

2/2

— Tim Franks (@BBCTimFranks) March 28, 2022

[GrantDawg]

I wondered. I seem to remember Bellingcat being way off on a big story a while ago. I can't remember what it was mow.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[RainMaker]

Their thing is they launder CIA stuff to the public.

[Edward64]

Peace talks in Turkey tomorrow.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

Russia is no longer requesting Ukraine be “denazified” and is prepared to let Kyiv join the EU if it remains militarily non-aligned as part of ceasefire negotiations, according to four people briefed on the discussions.

Moscow and Kyiv are discussing a pause in hostilities as part of a possible deal that would involve Ukraine abandoning its drive for Nato membership in exchange for security guarantees and the prospect to join the EU, the people said under the condition of anonymity because the matter is not yet finalised.

The draft ceasefire document does not contain any discussion of three of Russia’s initial core demands — “denazification”, “demilitarisation”, and legal protection for the Russian language in Ukraine — the people added.

Envoys from both sides are to meet in Istanbul on Tuesday in a fourth round of peace talks designed to end president Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The concessions on Russia’s side come as its month-long ground offensive has largely stalled as a result of fiercer Ukrainian resistance than expected and Russian operational deficiencies.

But Ukraine and its western backers remain sceptical of Putin’s intentions, worrying that the Russian president could be using the talks as a smokescreen to replenish his exhausted forces and plan a fresh offensive.

As part of the agreement under consideration, Ukraine would also refrain from developing nuclear weapons, or hosting foreign military bases in addition to abandoning its pursuit of Nato membership.

In exchange, Ukraine would get what Arakhamia called “wording close to Nato’s Article 5” — whereby the alliances’ members must come to each others’ aid if one is attacked — for security guarantees from countries including Russia, the US, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, China, Italy, Poland, Israel, and Turkey.

This is prob going to be the key area of contention.

The draft communiqué under consideration leaves the biggest sticking point — Ukraine’s attempts to reclaim territory seized by Russia since 2014 — to be settled in a tentative future discussion by Putin and Zelensky, the people said.

Moscow, Arakhamia said, was demanding that Ukraine recognise Russia’s control over the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014, as well as two territories run by Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Donbas region.

[Edward64]

Article below made me wonder what is happening with the Russian tourists that travelled overseas when the war started. If I was them, I'm not sure I'd want to return right now. Presumably they were impacted with all the banking constraints and ruble devaluation.

Tough situation for innocent Russians caught up in all of this.

The US Admitted a Group of Russians at the Border Under Secret Deal With Mexico

A group of Russian citizens who fled their country after the invasion of Ukraine and spent a week camped out at the U.S.-Mexico border was quietly admitted to the U.S. in a secret deal with Mexican officials, VICE World News has learned.

The group of 35 asylum seekers was whisked away in the predawn hours of March 20 and driven to a part of the border where they wouldn’t be seen: a checkpoint that has been closed to the public for several months.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Actually, the poisoning story is now being debunked. Bellingcat is not a great source for news.

Well the BBC is still running with the story, even if some are say the health symptons are due to "environmental conditions"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60904676

[JPhillips]

The lead Ukrainian negotiator says that talks have progressed to a point where Putin and Zelensky might meet to finalize and sign papers.

[molson]

Kind of worried for Zelensky in any meeting with any Russian.

[BYU 14]

I know i would shake no hands and take no food or drink if I were him

[NobodyHere]

I would go full haz-mat suit.

[kingfc22]

The "mighty Russian military" have been exposed as frauds

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

The "mighty Russian military" have been exposed as frauds

Which is what happens when you purge seasoned commanders from the previous regime and replace them with younger, inexperienced leaders who care more about staying on your good side than effective military tactics or competent leadership. Putin got just what he was begging for here.

[PilotMan]

Has anyone been following the cyber war on Russia? As far as states go, Russia has been 'doing the cyber' for well over a decade and constantly against Ukraine to help destabilize it. Anonymous basically just deleted the entire database that their aviation authority maintained, according to some reports. 65 Terabytes of data, one terabyte is about 75million pages. There have been other hacking reports as well, and a myriad of upcoming data drops. It's been quite the clinic.

I can't imagine the FAA suddenly losing all of its data on planes and pilots and whatever else. Supposedly the data hadn't been backed up because of budget issues.

[Poli]

Could you imagine not having a backup of that data?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Poli

Could you imagine not having a backup of that data?

Every IT guy nods sagely.

Or at least a working backup, yeah. I bet there's probably some "backup" that satisfied some checkbox somewhere a long time ago but not one that's actually functionally a backup.

SI

[Flasch186]

Although someone’s buyinga new laptop and starting from scratch is just what you needed and didn’t know it lol


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[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Which is what happens when you purge seasoned commanders from the previous regime and replace them with younger, inexperienced leaders who care more about staying on your good side than effective military tactics or competent leadership. Putin got just what he was begging for here.

I think it has way more to do with the fact their army is mostly made up of one year conscripts. There are many jobs in our military where the training takes more than a year. A volunteer army is generally going to be better trained and have a higher morale. Add in the rampant corruption (not that it isn't pretty rampant here as well), you are not going to have a solid fighting force that can withstand a long term heavy engagement.

[JPhillips]

Yeah the corruption in regards to supply and training is a huge issue. They started without enough food and gear to last more than a week and a lot of that was substandard.

There's obviously the real risk of nuclear war, but in a conventional conflict, NATO would wipe the Russian army out in no time.

[thesloppy]

Only a month ago Russia's army was still considered the second strongest in the world & Putin was thought of as one of the shrewdest leaders in history for like 20 years running. He could have easily rode that reputation into the sunset & left Russia as a world power to be feared, but in an effort to make some kind of legacy statement he may have instead set off the country's literal collapse in less than a month, by first believing his corrupt military's own propaganda and then actively revealing it's worthlessness to the entire world. It's hard to overstate how ridiculous this would've seemed just a month ago.

[tarcone]

Think how funny this would be if he started in November

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Think how funny this would be if he started in November

I think during election season, it would have been unpredictable as to what Trump would have done & said. Now if it was early 2021, I can easily see where NATO/EU response be in disarray because of Trump being Trump.

I am critical of Biden on how we exited Afghanistan. But can't imagine a better NATO/EU response under Biden. Our response has been "balanced" and not directly confrontational. Kudos to US leadership in corralling others together in supplying weapons, intel & advice, economic sanctions, and IMO very likely some operators on the ground, behind the front lines helping Ukrainian military ops.

With that said, kudos to Zelenskyy. I would have assumed he would have gone into exile but he didn't take the easy way out. He's the George Washington of Ukraine now (regardless of past history).

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Only a month ago Russia's army was still considered the second strongest in the world & Putin was thought of as one of the shrewdest leaders in history for like 20 years running. He could have easily rode that reputation into the sunset & left Russia as a world power to be feared, but in an effort to make some kind of legacy statement he may have instead set off the country's literal collapse in less than a month, by first believing his corrupt military's own propaganda and then actively revealing it's worthlessness to the entire world. It's hard to overstate how ridiculous this would've seemed just a month ago.

Always be skeptical of the propaganda surrounding foreign militaries. Many in this country use it to push for more defense spending. We're seeing it come up in talks about the Navy's new budget.

[RainMaker]

Interesting that the ruble has rebounded to almost pre-war levels in Russia. Maybe the sanctions will work long-term, but in the short-term, it doesn't seem to be as destructive as we thought.

Worth noting that we didn't really go after the oligarchs which is how you really put pressure on that country.

[NobodyHere]

No wonder Russian troop morale is low:

Russian Troops Suffer ‘Acute Radiation Sickness’ After Digging Chernobyl Trenches

[BYU 14]

Not knowing, or telling your troops they were digging in radio-active soil is incompetence on a whole other level.

[sterlingice]

And for what? Trenches that are probably of low strategic value. Like if you were attacking the site, wouldn't you just be like "screw it, let them stay in their trenches and they'll have to come out sooner rather than later". Or some petty stuff like mining the area around it.

SI

[Edward64]

I suspect its more foxholes than trenches (like WWI). Anything to reduce your profile is good IMO.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I suspect its more foxholes than trenches (like WWI). Anything to reduce your profile is good IMO.

In a war where you're getting beaten pretty soundly in a lot of areas, there might be a better use of your troops than digging trenches in a highly irradiated area on land they were never planning on keeping and where it was very unlikely there was going to be a pitched infantry battle.

SI

[Lathum]

If I was playing a world domination game and these were the results I was getting when a super power attacked an inferior nation I would think the AI was busted.

[tarcone]

Is Zelensky the Anti-Christ? I thought maybe Trump, but I always thought Eastern Europe would be the home area.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Is Zelensky the Anti-Christ?

No.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Is Zelensky the Anti-Christ? I thought maybe Trump, but I always thought Eastern Europe would be the home area.

WTF does this even mean?

[Edward64]

Not sure if confirmed but there are reports that Ukraine attacked a fuel depot inside Russia. Awfully cheeky of them (but good for them).

I think we can conclude this is now a stalemate (as long as the west continues to supply weapons & intel). My guess is a negotiated settlement is the likely scenario now vs a straight out Russian win.