09-07-2007, 11:55 AM | #701 |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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I don't know who I trust right now...I have some suspicions on DT, as well as Lathum, but not enough to make me comfortable voting for either of them tonight. I'll be here all day and hopefully will be online tonight as well, I don't think I have any plans...
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09-07-2007, 11:58 AM | #702 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Here is a recap, with a couple of comments, on the Day 1 votes:
Post #70 - RendeR votes Hoops Post #74 - Barkeep votes Telle Post #75 - RendeR unvotes Hoops, votes Alan Post #77 - RendeR unvotes Alan, votes DT Post #78 - RPI votes Oliegirl Post #82 - Hoops votes RPI Post #87 - Cronin votes RendeR Post #95 - RendeR unvotes DT, votes Cronin Post #107 - Telle votes RPI Post #111 - RPI unvotes Oliegirl Post #115 - Pass votes Chief Rum Post #121 - Neon votes RPI Post #125 - Barkeep unvotes Telle, votes Pass Post #129 - Path votes Crim Post #131 - Alan votes Neon Post #132 - EagleFan votes Neon Post #140 - Raiders votes EagleFan Post #141 - Arlington votes MrDNA Post #143 - MrDNA votes Alan Post #148 - Molson votes Cronin Post #149 - Neon unvotes RPI, votes Alan Post #151 - RPI votes Neon Post #154 - RPI unvotes Neon Post #162 - Barkeep unvotes Pass, votes Neon Post #167 - EagleFan unvotes Neon, votes Hoops Post #179 - MrBug votes Barkeep Post #193 - Neon unvotes Alan, votes Barkeep Post #194 - Purdue votes RPI Post #199 - Oliegirl votes Neon Post #201 - RPI votes Purdue Post #215 - Purdue unvotes RPI Post #220 - RPI unvotes Purdue Post #247 - Neon says he is willing to vote Crim to save himself after it was suggested by both BK and Molson they might be willing to do this. Remember, Neon knows who are the wolves as either a wolf or Goth at this point Post #251 - EagleFan calls Neon on Post #247, saying "Always waiting to vote with others ..." Post #289 - Neon fake reveals as Seer Post #291 - RPI votes Cronin (one minute after Neon, maybe he didn't see the post???) Post #292 - Neon unvotes Barkeep, votes Alan Post #296 - Cronin unvotes RendeR, votes RPI Post #297 - Purdue votes Alan Post #298 - Path unvotes Crim, votes RPI Post #299 - Alan unvotes Neon, votes DT Post #301 - MrBug unvotes Barkeep, votes RPI Post #302 - Barkeep unvotes Neon, votes DT Post #308 - Crim votes Path Post #313 - RendeR unvotes Cronin, votes DT DEADLINE |
09-07-2007, 11:59 AM | #703 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Hmmm, I'm fairly confident our moderator is not a wolf |
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09-07-2007, 12:02 PM | #704 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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I had a theory when I started doing the post review that RendeR might be the Goth (which would make Neon wolf from the start) and that his vote-jumping was to call out each of the wolves, thus signaling that he knew them. It would certainly be high risk if he were to die as the Goth, but high-reward if it gets him converted early.
However, his early votes were me (villager), then Alan (dead villager), then DT (likely duke). So that theory went down the tubes almost as quickly as I concocted it. Nothing to see here, except me laughing at how crappy my wild theory turned out to be. Carry on. |
09-07-2007, 12:02 PM | #705 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Rule #1 in werewolf: Lathum is always a wolf.
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09-07-2007, 12:04 PM | #706 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Quote:
That would be totally insane, if the goth actually did that. |
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09-07-2007, 12:11 PM | #707 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Hoops, curious to hear your thoughts on Crim.
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09-07-2007, 12:25 PM | #708 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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Quote:
lupine? I gave my reasoning for DT. My reasoning was more or less the same as Barkeep's as well, so I'm not sure how you would come to this conclusion? |
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09-07-2007, 12:32 PM | #709 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: The Mountains
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Quote:
So why'd you withdraw your vote for him, only to put it right back on him later on. It's almost as if there was a wolf meeting in the interim. |
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09-07-2007, 12:34 PM | #710 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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Quote:
This is my line of reasoning. If DT is the Duke, I would imagine he's going to be targeted tonight with the thought that he was protected by the bodyguard last night. I do believe the bodyguard can't target the same person twice so I would imagine the wolves gambled that DT was going to be protected last night and probably going to be targeted tonight. I was hoping we could get Torgo to use his powers on a known guy that was going to be killed anyways but now we don't have any solid leads on who to vote for. The best case scenario for DT is that the bodyguard didn't defend him last night and he/she does tonight and he's saved for one more day. |
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09-07-2007, 12:37 PM | #711 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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Quote:
I was going to see if there would be enough compelling evidence to switch my vote. And then I had a job interview and then by that time the NC bandwagon was in full effect and I knew he was comdemn to die and I still wanted to see if DT had his powers. I thought killing two birds with one stone would be a much better thing to do rather then waiting to see where the bandwagon fell before. |
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09-07-2007, 12:39 PM | #712 |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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Haha - oops!!! That is what I get for trying to post and handle a call at work at the same time I meant RendeR... |
09-07-2007, 12:50 PM | #713 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
Read further down. I realized I got you mixed up with MrDNA. He was making joking comments on Day 1 about potentially being a wolf. |
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09-07-2007, 12:52 PM | #714 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Cronin, I feel better about Crim as a villager than most in the game. I allude to the reason in my "vote review" post above. Neon was looking to get someone to jump on Crim with him during the last half hour - since Neon knew who were wolves and who was not I don't think that he would try to build a case towards a wolf when the voting was as shallow/balanced as it was at that time.
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09-07-2007, 12:52 PM | #715 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
I'm heading out and I don't know whether or not I'll be back before deadline, so I need to put my vote in now. I'm going to vote for oliegirl. More likely this was an honest mistake by her, but it could have been wolf mis-direction.. and honestly I don't have an overly strong feeling for anyone right now. VOTE OLIEGIRL |
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09-07-2007, 12:53 PM | #716 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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09-07-2007, 12:58 PM | #717 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Neon voted for three people on Day 1 - RPI (dead seer), Alan (dead villager), and Barkeep (dead villager). He wanted to find people to move with him to switch to Crim (post #247) - does it make sense that he would try to find a wolf to switch to inside the last 30 minutes as a cover when earlier he had voted for three villagers? I know wolves (or wolf sympathizer who knows wolves, potentially) will often vote for another wolf early but I can't see him dicking around with this that late in the day with his life on the line.
I trust Crim as much as DT right now, for better or worse. |
09-07-2007, 01:03 PM | #718 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Here was my post-deadline post last night in terms of trust - put out there in the event that I was the one killed. I haven't seen reasons to change on these three parties. Telle has just put a vote out there for one of those three - Oliegirl. Now I would concede that I trust Olie less than Crim or DT, but still more than the remaining people in the game not named Hoopsguy. Add to that the fact that Telle was one of the five people who ended up on RPI (I was as well), the leading vote getter, and I'm leaning towards putting my vote here today. Telle and PurdueBrad are two participants who have not generated any trust for me early in this game, and this most recent vote is enough to push Telle up the list for the moment. VOTE TELLE |
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09-07-2007, 01:07 PM | #719 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
As a point of reference, these were the final votes from Day 1. Lot of movement, so I don't put a terribly high level of stock in them but I still contend that the wolves would attempt to scatter their votes and that is most effective on the higher-vote-attracting candidates. If that premise is true - and it has been a pretty strong indicator for me historically - then the shallow voting from Day 1 could potentially work to our advantage. But it will hurt us if they have throwaway votes on people with just one vote. |
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09-07-2007, 01:41 PM | #720 | |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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Quote:
I also voted for Neon on day 1 and never changed my vote...I had a gut feeling about him and clearly, was right. Also, if you've ever played with me you'll know I don't vote as a "placeholder". In my last game I even questioned those that did because I don't think it's a good/smart way to play if you are a villegar. I appreciate the vote of confidence though |
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09-07-2007, 01:43 PM | #721 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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hey. i've been swamped at work all day. still buried, but i realized i should put in an appearance.
interesting choice between telle and mrbug as i see it right now. for sure i'll be reading later and trying to form a more coherent and factually based opinion, but that's the direction of my gaze right now at least. |
09-07-2007, 02:04 PM | #722 |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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VOTE TELLE
I've played with her in at least one other game, maybe 2, and she was always right in there making tons of posts, doing spreadsheets, really contributing. She's been super quiet this game. Additionally she voted for RPI fan early on Day 1 and never changed it, which knowing what we know now, does look suspicious. |
09-07-2007, 02:05 PM | #723 |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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Forgot to bold in my above post...revoting...
VOTE TELLE |
09-07-2007, 02:07 PM | #724 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Olie, you can put me in the same boat on voting RPI early in Day 1 and not moving it. Just putting that out there in the interest of full disclosure.
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09-07-2007, 02:17 PM | #725 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Going through a review of Telle posts to see if I could give better reasons than "gut feel" on Day 3 of a game. I had not realized when I voted earlier that I was the second person on her, following Cronin. Anyway, here are the thoughts on Telle. I'll probably do the same process for a couple of others who I have as more suspect.
# of posts: 16th overall with 20 posts. Looking at the timing on the posts, I'm not sure that there were any posts on Day 1 after entering the vote. Day 2 was pretty light, after an early vote for Neon. Today has been her heaviest posting day, as she has started drawing some fire. Nothing that is terribly alarming here in and of itself, but it does represent a shift from a more active style in earlier games. content of posts: no spreadsheets and very few theories. One thing that I had seen with Telle in previous games (pretty small sample set, I admit) is that she thinks about the game rather than going through the motions. I get a sense that she really wants to "solve the mystery" - it is much harder to convey that same sense of discovery/enthusiasm when you are a wolf trying to misdirect. context of votes/comments: 2nd person on RPI. I don't consider this a smoking gun, or at least not to the extent some other do, but it made RPI the first person to have two votes. Neon then joined later, pushing this number up to three before anyone else had a second vote. Yesterday, with the vote clearly going to Neon she had a comment on Barkeep as a "person to watch" after several posters indicated they had concerns with his defense of Neon. Very non-commital, but it served to add attention to BK as a Day 3 target and may have had some impact on RendeR's decision to gun down BK at night. Finally, I don't think the vote on Oliegirl today is a good vote. I don't claim that any of these are great reasons for votes on Telle. But it is an effort to explain why I've been concerned enough with her play being "anti-club" to vote for her today. |
09-07-2007, 02:40 PM | #726 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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DaddyT, what kind of availability are you going to have tonight near deadline? If we don't have much to go on today, and the participation is fairly light, then I think tonight might be a decent time for you to "duke" the vote in whatever direction you think makes sense.
I still think people should put their votes in like a normal vote - especially if DT isn't interested in following this line of thought - but if DT wants to do this and the rest of the group agrees, then we at least 100% clear a villager on a vote that I think has much more chance of going poorly than the one yesterday. I would mention this closer to deadline, but there is no sense going down this path if you aren't going to be around at deadline to interpret all of the posts between now and then ... |
09-07-2007, 02:45 PM | #727 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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Quote:
i'll be here. i usually get on after dinner around like 7:30-8 PM EST. |
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09-07-2007, 02:55 PM | #728 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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OK, then I would ask you to consider over the course of the afternoon if this is something that you would like to do or not. If it was me as the duke, I would not state my thoughts on which way I would go until closer to deadline. That will force the rest of us to treat this like a normal vote instead of just pandering to you with "don't lynch me!" subtexts to their positioning, as well as give the wolves one more thing to worry about - do they need to focus on convincing you or the crowd for today?
Later tonight, maybe 30 minutes before deadline, if we have the numbers to move stuff, let us know if you want to go down this road. |
09-07-2007, 03:07 PM | #729 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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Quote:
Considered and I am okay with the idea. Frankly I can see the value either in holding onto the power or in using it. |
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09-07-2007, 03:08 PM | #730 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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I'm out for the rest of the night as it is crosstown rivalry game night for the h.s. I work at. No vote is a cop out from what I've gathered and I don't have a handle on who to vote for. Even though it would be the second vote on me, would it be a bigger cop-out to put it on myself rather than throw it at a person randomly?
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09-07-2007, 03:23 PM | #731 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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Quote:
well it certainly wouldn't make any sense. IMO in that situation it's not really any better than a no-vote, and could be worse because the wolves can manipulate things back around to you. |
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09-07-2007, 03:33 PM | #732 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: DeKalb, IL
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I guess, I would've just felt better getting myself voted off rather than being part of a mis-lynch because I wasn't around to change things. I've tried to be around for every vote thus far. Because I can't, I'm going to go off the wall in a different, hopefully even safer way.
DT, since PMing isn't allowed in the werewolf games I'll explain my move here. I trust that you're the duke, so I know you can save yourself if this snowballs and therefore you are my safest bet (boy, I sound like Leia from Star Wars, "Help me Obi Wan, you're my only hope."). To avoid what I dread, which is screwing up again, I'm casting my vote your way knowing that you can redirect it if it screws you over: vote DaddyTorgo I've got to run, go villagers! |
09-07-2007, 03:43 PM | #733 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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I want to say again, I'm very much against voting for DaddyTorgo. Why force him to use his duke? And if you think he's NOT the duke, surely the real duke will have him lynched today.
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09-07-2007, 03:44 PM | #734 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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I will be out until close to the deadline. I someone could post a vote count as we get closer to the ddeadline that would be great. thankes
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09-07-2007, 03:47 PM | #735 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Quote:
Let me flesh out my thinking a bit more, for you hoops. Assume Neon was the Goth. Neon did vote for 3 known villagers. Close to deadline, he said he was willing to vote for Crim. If Crim is a villager, why wouldn't Neon simply VOTE for Crim, and urge others to do likewise? Likewise if Crim was a wolf, Neon would know that there might have been some insurance to prevent Crim from getting lynched from whatever wolves might have been online. Likewise if Crim did get lynched, Neon would be very much in the clear. I also want to point out there is some linkage between you and Crim based on your day 1 posts, whether that means anything or not. |
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09-07-2007, 03:48 PM | #736 | |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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Quote:
I agree - that is another reason that I voted for Telle. Something just isn't right with her in this game...I'm thinking that she's never been a wolf before and isn't totally sure how to play that side of the game, so she is laying low. That is what my gut is telling me, and with not much else to go on, that is what my vote is based on... |
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09-07-2007, 03:50 PM | #737 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Quote:
I just want to add, I don't feel especially suspicious of Crim, just that I don't see him as cleared the way some others say they do. |
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09-07-2007, 04:02 PM | #738 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: Whittier
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Quote:
But suppose the bodyguard protected DaddyTorgo last night, what's to stop them from killing him tonight? Then his power went unused |
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09-07-2007, 04:18 PM | #739 | |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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Quote:
There is always a chance you are cutting off your nose to spite your face, but in this game it's a chance you have to take... |
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09-07-2007, 05:17 PM | #740 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Okee, I'm back (early!) and ready to read through what I've missed. I want to figure out someone to vote for fairly quickly, to allow discussion of my thoughts, then I can be on later before deadline to observe any wolfly shenanigans. Back with my thoughts after I've caught up.
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09-07-2007, 05:22 PM | #741 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Quote:
From the first post: "Weight room manager: You are lean and mean, each night you can select a player to protect. You may or may not identify the attacker if successful." I know in many games the BG has to change his protectee each consecutive night, but I don't see that as the case here. Rather, it seems to me that the BG block is not automatic, as evidenced by my bolded type in the Lathum quote above. |
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09-07-2007, 05:30 PM | #742 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Jan 2007
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Quote:
+1 If he is the duke, why not keep him around as insurance for if we get down to two and pick him by accident? And if he's not... |
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09-07-2007, 05:31 PM | #743 |
H.S. Freshman Team
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: arlington, tx
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I'm gone for the night... based on my earlier suspicions im going to VOTE MR.BUG
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09-07-2007, 05:38 PM | #744 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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I'm probably out until after deadline. I'm ok with leaving my vote on Telle, since I don't see any other candidates I like (other than maybe PurdueBrad - voting for DT).
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09-07-2007, 05:39 PM | #745 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Quote:
In for another minute or so before heading out. The only reason that I voted for him is that I am a little suspicious of his reactions to some of the events. Maybe that's not a great reason to vote for him but it just seemed to be a little over the top. I am about to be heading back out (had just enough time to browse the posts) or I would post a little more detail about it. I'll be around for much of the weekend (after tonight) so I'll check back in later. Hopefully I'm still alive and kickin' at that point. Not sure if you wanted any reasons for my other votes but they were basically not knowing what I was doing . My vote on Neon for day one was a reaction to him voting RPI and hearing people mention how good of a player RPI was. I switched to a lone vote on another player thinking that would help clear my name (after someone said that I jumped at the Neon vote and I still did not understand the voting process) and chose a random player who seemed to be in no danger of getting voted out- didn't want to vote Raiders and look like a vote of spite since he voted me as I understood his reasoning for voting me when I saw the time stamp of my vote and the one who voted previous to my Neon vote. Day two vote was initially for DT because he asked for us to vote for him and I figured that would clear up if we could trust him or not. I took it off him when it seemed that the tide was going the other way and I waited to see just where the evening was moving before placing it on Neon (who was the person that I wanted out anyway). Sorry, probably way too much rambling there. Have a good night all!!! Time to play some poker!!! |
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09-07-2007, 05:39 PM | #746 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Quote:
I think I was in agreement with this thought at first (Alan subscribed to this, I believe, as well). BUT... Say Neon's the Goth. By doing the seer fake reveal, he guarantees two things: 1) the wolves are coming hard for him, and 2) the body guard is duty-bound to engage and protect him. So, assuming that body guard protects are automatic (as in most games -- I believe Lathum's using a die roll here, though the rules are a bit ambiguous), this generates a wasted night kill by the wolves, whom Neon loves. Add to that the fact that the BG has a chance of IDing a wolf while blocking. What I'm saying is, if I were the Goth, I would consider doing a fake reveal, but not the seer. :shurg: |
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09-07-2007, 05:50 PM | #747 | |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Quote:
Right. Really, this is maybe the only reason I wonder about st.cronin... it was obvious to me (and I'm dense, so it must have been clear to everyone else too!) that all three DT votes were after and because of DT's "I'm the duke lemme prove it" reveal. Votes for DT were really votes for Neon, with the added benefit that if DT was lying we'd get them both, that day then the next. So when cronin cast suspicion on the DT votes because of how obvious it was that we oughta be after Neon, it just kind of put me on edge. Oh, and to avoid the dola, NOW I understand better about the duke power. Some reason I thought the duke had to be the one voted off for his power to trigger. Didn't know he could change a lynch from anyone to anyone. That said, I still don't agree about saving the power. I think it's more valuable to us to prove his innocence. Seems to me we are seriously lacking in firm COT candidates at this stage. |
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09-07-2007, 05:55 PM | #748 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Dec 2003
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09-07-2007, 05:57 PM | #749 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Dec 2003
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09-07-2007, 06:24 PM | #750 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Anyone got a vote count? I'm watching the kids tonight and may well fall asleep with Aemon when I put him down in a little while. I don't want to miss a vote due to exhaustion.
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