Werewolf LI Major League (GAME OVER!!! INDIANS--GOOD GUYS--WIN!!!)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why not? Isn't winning games the same as helping the village? Would you feel differently if it were someone other than hoops winning all these games?

of course it is but IMO winning games doesn't equal trust.

It just seems hoops is trying a little to hard to be trusted.

[Lathum]

Dola- I just want to reiterate that if the seer wants to come out they should do it soon, otherwise people may not be on to react accordingly

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, I have no idea what criteria you are assigning to other people in terms of trust when you discard the only tangible result we have so far.

If I'm harping on it, it is because I'm beyond frustrated at the inability to look at the rest of the people in the game.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, I have no idea what criteria you are assigning to other people in terms of trust when you discard the only tangible result we have so far.

If I'm harping on it, it is because I'm beyond frustrated at the inability to look at the rest of the people in the game.

so you don't think it would be an ideal wolf play to help win games in an effort to gain trust?

[hoopsguy]

Also, I think the votes on Daddy Torgo are misplaced. The crux of Lathum's argument about DT was that he was gunning for Cronin in a public manner because they were wolves playing off of each other. Well, that was clearly wrong. So now DT was gunning for him as a wolf trying to get a villager? C'mon, as a wolf just stay out of the way on Day 1. There is no reason for him to repeatedly draw attention to his vote on Cronin as a wolf. I consider him to be my most trusted person in the game right now other than myself.

And I'm not saying this as the seer, but as someone who is trying to ask questions of why people are playing the way that they are. So consider that the start of my trust list.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

so you don't think it would be an ideal wolf play to help win games in an effort to gain trust?

No, I think they would like to achieve their victory conditions instead if given the choice.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Also, I think the votes on Daddy Torgo are misplaced. The crux of Lathum's argument about DT was that he was gunning for Cronin in a public manner because they were wolves playing off of each other. Well, that was clearly wrong. So now DT was gunning for him as a wolf trying to get a villager? C'mon, as a wolf just stay out of the way on Day 1. There is no reason for him to repeatedly draw attention to his vote on Cronin as a wolf. I consider him to be my most trusted person in the game right now other than myself.

And I'm not saying this as the seer, but as someone who is trying to ask questions of why people are playing the way that they are. So consider that the start of my trust list.

That was Lathum's argument. Was that what everyone else thought? I guess I still haven't read the stuff I skimmed from yesterday. Maybe that was the thinking, since the votes were for both cronin and DT together. I'm certainly willing to move my DT vote -- Gonzo and JE are for sure making me nervous -- but whatever the reasoning, you've just got to look hard at someone who comes out so strongly to lynch a villager.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

No, I think they would like to achieve their victory conditions instead if given the choice.

Which victory condition?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

No, I think they would like to achieve their victory conditions instead if given the choice.

For the wolves, a major victory is achieved if the wolves drop the villager numbers to an even ratio with the wolves. This automatically loses the pennant for the Indians. A minor victory is achieved if the Indians do not win the pennant, even if the wolves are exposed before reaching their major victory.

Well unless they are attempting to achieve a minor victory I see no reason for them to not make an effort during games to get trusted.

[hoopsguy]

whatever the reasoning, you've just got to look hard at someone who comes out so strongly to lynch a villager.

I'm more inclined to look at people who are trying to blend in with the crowd, not offering opinions, and are conducting themselves as if they are afraid to be wrong. Particularly if that is inconsistent with my perceptions of their "normal play".

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That was Lathum's argument. Was that what everyone else thought? I guess I still haven't read the stuff I skimmed from yesterday. Maybe that was the thinking, since the votes were for both cronin and DT together. I'm certainly willing to move my DT vote -- Gonzo and JE are for sure making me nervous -- but whatever the reasoning, you've just got to look hard at someone who comes out so strongly to lynch a villager.

I think I know why DT played the way he did and my vote stays on him.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

For the wolves, a major victory is achieved if the wolves drop the villager numbers to an even ratio with the wolves. This automatically loses the pennant for the Indians. A minor victory is achieved if the Indians do not win the pennant, even if the wolves are exposed before reaching their major victory.

Well unless they are attempting to achieve a minor victory I see no reason for them to not make an effort during games to get trusted.

Lathum, you are too smart not to get this - seriously, I feel like you are being stubborn on purpose here. Why would they hinder themselves in getting the minor victory?

I'll concede that the wolves want to be trusted (duh) if you concede that the wolves - all other things being equal - would prefer to be in premium position for both victory conditions.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, who do you trust, in relative terms this game, and why?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm more inclined to look at people who are trying to blend in with the crowd, not offering opinions, and are conducting themselves as if they are afraid to be wrong. Particularly if that is inconsistent with my perceptions of their "normal play".

I agree with the first sentence. That's why I'm so worried about Gonzo and JE. I just don't know how to formulate an argument against them -- or to decide which one to argue against. As for the second sentence, I'm not sure if I'm quite seasoned enough to know the "normal play" of most folks on here -- so that part isn't as strong with me.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, you are too smart not to get this - seriously, I feel like you are being stubborn on purpose here. Why would they hinder themselves in getting the minor victory?

I'll concede that the wolves want to be trusted (duh) if you concede that the wolves - all other things being equal - would prefer to be in premium position for both victory conditions.

If I were a wolf I would risk losing the minor victory if it put me in a better position for a major one.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, who do you trust, in relative terms this game, and why?

other then myself there is only one other person I trust and it's Daddytorgo.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

other then myself there is only one other person I trust and it's Daddytorgo.

What?!?

[hoopsguy]

The problem is that the game can turn quickly - just look at Alan's last game for an example of that. The wolves are off to a great start in this game and now stand a couple of days away from a major victory.

I'm guessing the wolves from Alan's game would have loved to have a minor victory to fall back upon once that game turned against them.

The point is, if I'm a wolf I want to put myself in position to win as many ways as possible. That would have started with me not stepping up on a day where I wasn't supposed to step up (Day 1).

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

other then myself there is only one other person I trust and it's Daddytorgo.

Who you are voting for at the moment. Because you "want him to lose the tiebreaker".

[Lathum]

thats correct

[Lathum]

DT.

And I guess we are just wired differently hoops.

I really could care less about minor victories in these games. I am willing to gamble a minor victory to achieve a major one, regardless of the odds. If sacrificing the minor victory gives me a 1% better chance to wil I'll do it.

[Lathum]

should say win.

[PurdueBrad]

Lathum, your line of thinking is similar to what I'm thinking (and I guess this makes me suspicious because I'm following the crowd to a degree) but I would go for the major victory and just use the minor one as a fallback. I think it makes sense for the wolves to gain trust through the games, just so they can freely pick off two per night (one because we keep picking ourselves off and the one they vote on). That's why I'm willing to take a risk on the higher profile Hoops. But look, I admit that losing him if we are wrong could be a big hit but we have some other people that could/should be able to step it up if we're wrong.

[Lathum]

Well assuming hoops uses his final "step up" tonight his usefullness drops off tomorrow from a baseball standpoint.

From a villager standpoint hoops in invaluable when on your side.

[KWhit]

I'm thoroughly confused.

Lathum, do you intend on keeping your vote on DT? Or is this some sort of ploy. Because right now, you're juts muddying the waters and sowing confusion, which is good for the wolves, but bad for the villagers.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think I know why DT played the way he did and my vote stays on him.

Please expand on this.

[Lathum]

I was hoping the seer would step up today but no such luck so the next best way to start a COT is find the duke.

DT is a smart player, I think he is the duke and came out so aggresivly on Cronin early on so he would call attention to himself, get lynched day 1 and be insta trusted while there being no lynch which helps us.

IF DT is the duke we don't lose a villager and we can start a COT with him.

[KWhit]

And regarding Hoops:

At this point, he's the closest thing we have to a trusted villager. Let's say he's at 51% trust level. In my eyes, he's at least that high - because we know he has helped the village twice.

Everybody else is around a 50-50 for me at this point. Maybe some a little more suspicious than others, but certainly nothing tangible at this point. At least Hoops has provided us with something. better than anyone else has done. We don't even know if the people are actually stepping up who say they do - except Hoops.

So he is my top trusted player right now. Not by much, that's true, but my vote will be going elsewhere tonight.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I was hoping the seer would step up today but no such luck so the next best way to start a COT is find the duke.

DT is a smart player, I think he is the duke and came out so aggresivly on Cronin early on so he would call attention to himself, get lynched day 1 and be insta trusted while there being no lynch which helps us.

IF DT is the duke we don't lose a villager and we can start a COT with him.

Interesting theory.

A COT would be nice. He did come out very aggressive, but I don't know if that makes him the Duke.

So basically we'd get a no-lynch and a known good villager. Not a bad trade, but why don't we just ask the Duke to reveal and then go after who we think is a wolf tonight.

If the duke reveals and nobody comes forward to dispute it, we can assume he's telling the truth.

That way we don't lose a lynch tonight.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by KWhit

And regarding Hoops:

At this point, he's the closest thing we have to a trusted villager. Let's say he's at 51% trust level. In my eyes, he's at least that high - because we know he has helped the village twice.

Everybody else is around a 50-50 for me at this point. Maybe some a little more suspicious than others, but certainly nothing tangible at this point. At least Hoops has provided us with something. better than anyone else has done. We don't even know if the people are actually stepping up who say they do - except Hoops.

So he is my top trusted player right now. Not by much, that's true, but my vote will be going elsewhere tonight.

I think that's a mistake and exactly what hoops wants if he is a wolf

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Interesting theory.

A COT would be nice. He did come out very aggressive, but I don't know if that makes him the Duke.

So basically we'd get a no-lynch and a known good villager. Not a bad trade, but why don't we just ask the Duke to reveal and then go after who we think is a wolf tonight.

If the duke reveals and nobody comes forward to dispute it, we can assume he's telling the truth.

That way we don't lose a lynch tonight.

I am assuming that is what will happen anyway.

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I agree about Gonzo. I see him in the thread -- Gonzo, any thoughts?

None.

What do you want me to say?

[Barkeep49]

Hoops: Early on in the game, I think going for the major victory and minor victory is mutually exclusive for the wolves. Therefore, I see no reason why, if things are going well, and they have been, that they wouldn't just concentrate on getting the major victory and screw the minor victory. I don't think it's realistic for the wolves to equally persue both kinds of victories.

[DaddyTorgo]

i'm not the duke

i'll tell you what was going on in my mind:

my gut and some early actions said cronin was a wolf. I pushed for him aggressively hoping he'd be scanned n1.

voted for him right away on d2 in order that the seer wouldn't have to be the only one making the play at cronin and also thought that I might be able to figure out from that who the seer was and establish a UTR-COT.

Like I said, since I saw more people strongely arguing to vote cronin instead of pushing someone else (such as me) or arguing that cronin was innocent, I assumed that the seer was the 2nd or 3rd vote on cronin and one of those people making arguments to lynch cronin.

but apparently the seer scanned someone else. Which was always the possible drawback of my idea.

once again. Lynch me if you must, but i'm not the duke. I can't save myself.

[DaddyTorgo]

lathum's confusing the crap out of me.

[DaddyTorgo]

rare triple-dola

aaaah, I understand his play now that I have caught up.

[Passacaglia]

I think that's only a double-dola, DT.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I was hoping the seer would step up today but no such luck so the next best way to start a COT is find the duke.

DT is a smart player, I think he is the duke and came out so aggresivly on Cronin early on so he would call attention to himself, get lynched day 1 and be insta trusted while there being no lynch which helps us.

IF DT is the duke we don't lose a villager and we can start a COT with him.

Okay -- so given that DT claims not to be the duke, where does that leave you in your thinking of him?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

None.

What do you want me to say?

Well, let's start with your vote last night, for DT. You also said you were suspicious of cronin. Does the result from last night (cronin being a villager, DT pushing hard for him, MikeVic being killed) change your opinion of DT at all? It's a weird situation we have, with two votes on DT, and one of those votes from someone who says he trusts DT more than anyone. Do you plan to vote DT again? Or are you just going to wait and see how other people vote before putting yours in, sometime in the evening?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm not sure if I'm quite seasoned enough to know the "normal play" of most folks on here -- so that part isn't as strong with me.

Jack Parkman believes that is a dangerous play. Jack Parkman knows for a fact that some around here deliberately vary their styles. Not that Jack Parkman is naming names, for Jack Parkman is no rat.

Suffice to say that Jack Parkman thinks that you are better off without that consideration.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I've allowed myself to be distracted from other topics of conversation long enough for today.

Trust List:
1. Hoopsguy - absolute trust, I know my own allegiance.
2. DaddyT - medium trust, see no advantage to his targetting villager Cronin for two days as a wolf.
3. Gonzo - slight trust. I wish that he would actually try to, you know, interpret events, offer thoughts, etc. But I don't think wolves are missing votes if they can avoid it.

Neutral:
4. Barkeep - strikes me as a burned-out villager who isn't doing anybody any good playing right now if his heart isn't in it.
5. Lathum - more aggressive playing style than I used to seeing from him in wolf mode. Seems like he feels the urgency of the situtation from villager point ofview. Last guy on list that drifts towards trust in this middle group.
6. Jonathan Ezarik - very little info to work with on him, like Gonzo. But not drifting into distrust yet, just a straight neutral.
7. PurdueBrad - first-game, would he come out blazing after me on Day 3 as a wolf? I'm leaning towards no, but he falls in at the very bottom of my neutral list.

Distrust:
8. Path - seems to be caught up in role-playing more than analysis up to this point
9. KWhit - my impression is that he is not being decisive this game, more like trying to find where he can safely position himself
10. Pass - same impression as KWhit, except that impression is even stronger. There was a post of his right before deadline last night that left me almost certain that we were in a villager/villager showdown between Cronin and Torgo


Other people here know KWhit and Passacaglia well enough from previous games. What are your thoughts on their play up to this point.

If neither one of these guys is a wolf then I just stink at this game. Period, end of story.

[DaddyTorgo]

i've been trying to vary my play more lately ftr

[hoopsguy]

I'll follow up my post with a vote.

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[DaddyTorgo]

I wanna vote for path just to see the reaction.

But you're right...that can be an effective way of hiding in the open as a wolf.


as far as kwhit + pass...i've noticed that, more with kwhit than pass. Kwhit usually takes a stand on things and hasn't really so far this game. I'll go back and look for that post of pass' but if that's true then I think the smart vote is to go for him.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

My inclination is to vote for cronin, since Torgo feels so strongly about it, and it's his butt if he's wrong. But I read the thread pretty quickly. Does that sound fair?

Here was the comment by Pass, three minutes before deadline, that left me saying, "Umm, we are screwed with today's vote - two villager showdown".

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

8. Path - seems to be caught up in role-playing more than analysis up to this point

I've been thinking this, too. It's easy to hide out in the open when you're playing the way he is.

VOTE PATH

[DaddyTorgo]

hmmm

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Here was the comment by Pass, three minutes before deadline, that left me saying, "Umm, we are screwed with today's vote - two villager showdown".

My comment was less about DT being the other vote candidate, and more about him being the one who pushed for cronin so much. As for the votes on DT, I don't recall anyone really feeling strongly about it -- I guess Lathum? I'll look back and see if I can find out.

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE PATH12

should be around until deadline. subject to change, would likely change to: pass or kwhit

want to see their reactions to hoops' comments first though and let that...settle in my head

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

My comment was less about DT being the other vote candidate, and more about him being the one who pushed for cronin so much. As for the votes on DT, I don't recall anyone really feeling strongly about it -- I guess Lathum? I'll look back and see if I can find out.

Yeah, looking back, there was no strong charge on DT, really. I can see the idea that we were villager-villager last night given how it went down -- like I said, I'm willing to move my DT vote if a better option comes along. I'm not sure how that makes me a wolf, though.