WW XCI: Office Space, the TPS Edition - GAME OVER - Insiders Win

[Chief Rum]

Who here trusts my gut?

I have a suspicion on a potential wolf, but it's all just a gut call, based on a Day One vote and a manner of posting I recognize as something similar to what I believe I might do as a wolf.

I still have my ability to change the lynch, and I figure to be a goner tonight, so if I would do it, today would be the day.

All that said, I can't really say my gut call is any better than any of the other theories floated today (including my other one, linking Pass to lerriuqs, incidentally I like my gut call more than that).

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Who here trusts my gut?

(including my other one, linking Pass to lerriuqs, incidentally I like my gut call more than that).

I'm with you on this one. My gut tells me there is a link there as well.

[Autumn]

I'm all for gut calls, that's a lot of how I garner my early suspicions. Are you suggesting you'll change the vote but not pass on your suspicion? I'm not sure it would help us out if you're not fairly certain. It would mean we wouldn't get real feedback on the vote today unless you suspect one of the main contenders.

[PurdueBrad]

Chief, right now you're are only trusted person. Go for it.

[PurdueBrad]

*our, not are

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm all for gut calls, that's a lot of how I garner my early suspicions. Are you suggesting you'll change the vote but not pass on your suspicion? I'm not sure it would help us out if you're not fairly certain. It would mean we wouldn't get real feedback on the vote today unless you suspect one of the main contenders.

I'm saying I could if I decided to, but am very much undecided on that for the very reason you state, it's just a gut call. My thinking is I have one shot and that's it, and I'll probably be a goner tonight anyway. But I'm not sure my gut call is any better of a candidate than the others suggested, which makes me leery to change the vote of a whole thinking village on just my gut call.

It would probably be better to just name the gut call and get feedback, maybe introduce another possibility into the mix. I'm going to think on it while at lunch.

[The Jackal]

Finally my internet works. Been having troubles this morning. I'm cool with a gut call from CR, there doesn't seem to be substantial evidence against anyone, just some fliers on UTR play and/or other gut feelings.

[USFLTecmo]

Ditto. It's pretty clear to me now that CR's play was the right one earlier, I just didn't pick up on it at the time.

[EagleFan]

As items appear in the game I will post them in the rules section along with potential uses. Each item also has the option to allow the person in posession of the item to try to be creative and come up with a use but I will let them know if that is acceptable without slanting the game too much or if an alteration may be needed. All items also have potential negative side affects which may or may not be obvious (or mentioned).

[The Jackal]

What's the method for getting the items, just say pick up rope or something when you see it?

[Lathum]

I am all for hearing who CR suspects, but to me it doesn't elevate that person one way or the other. CR is operating with just as much information as the rest of us.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I am all for hearing who CR suspects, but to me it doesn't elevate that person one way or the other. CR is operating with just as much information as the rest of us.

Y'know what...a few are throwing accusing fingers at me over Lathum-gate () but no one is questioning the way you and Pass went after each other.

I know I'm innocent and you cast the first vote on me.

I wasn't going to cast a retaliatory vote, but this seems off...somehow.

VOTE LATHUM

[lerriuqs]

Oh and should we call it Lathum-gate or Bully-gate?

[Autumn]

If we can't get consensus on a target, we may need your help Chief. So far, no one has convinced me of another target, so I'd like to focus on Cartman. But obviously everybody has their pet suspect.

Is it pretty much assumed in standard Werewolf that the bodyguard can't protect the same person twice in a row? I haven't been in enough games to be sure of that.

[Lathum]

Question for Barkeep and USFLTechmo, Why did you guys leave your votes on Abe day 1 when Clap revealed and it was obvious there was going to be an Abe-Hoops run off?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Y'know what...a few are throwing accusing fingers at me over Lathum-gate () but no one is questioning the way you and Pass went after each other.

Well I would imagine that's because Pass wasn't defending me.

Question for you, if I am a wolf what incentive do I have to break the day 1 tie?

[USFLTecmo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Question for Barkeep and USFLTechmo, Why did you guys leave your votes on Abe day 1 when Clap revealed and it was obvious there was going to be an Abe-Hoops run off?

You mean a Clap-hoops runoff at the end? If that's what you mean, then I thought CR was going to use his duke powers (and I'm assuming at this point that he has them), so clap was safe. Hoops I didn't have any sort of read on, and no one else gave me enough of a read to move. Point being, it didn't seem like a wise move to change at all when I didn't have a reason to, especially considering I was quietly told that casting a 2nd vote on someone without a reason wasn't generally a good move by CR early on.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

What's the method for getting the items, just say pick up rope or something when you see it?

Look for clues. There was a clue which someone picked up on and searched. That gave another clue to a location to search and the search revealed the rope.

Also for the record for anyone finding things. The create a use cannot extend to a learn the identity feature. You can prevent, defend, "hide", silence and some other things with some of the items but no learn the identity options as that may have too large of an affect on the game.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Well I would imagine that's because Pass wasn't defending me.

Question for you, if I am a wolf what incentive do I have to break the day 1 tie?

That's a good question. Perhaps because you expected someone else to do it and so did it first to look good?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

That's a good question. Perhaps because you expected someone else to do it and so did it first to look good?

How does changing my vote and lynching someone who is one of the best villagers in the game going to make myself look good?

As a wolf IMO I wouldn't care who got lynched, and would have actualy prefered a tie in that spot so the villagers have to do day 1 all over again.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

You mean a Clap-hoops runoff at the end? If that's what you mean, then I thought CR was going to use his duke powers (and I'm assuming at this point that he has them), so clap was safe. Hoops I didn't have any sort of read on, and no one else gave me enough of a read to move. Point being, it didn't seem like a wise move to change at all when I didn't have a reason to, especially considering I was quietly told that casting a 2nd vote on someone without a reason wasn't generally a good move by CR early on.

yes. Sorry, Clap-Hoops.

[Danny]

I got caught up. Not sure where I'm going with my vote yet although depending on what CR does it may not matter.

[PurdueBrad]

CR, one recommendation I have is not announcing your move in advance (unless you think discussion is needed) so that we can see how the votes shake out. That is your call though.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Lathum

How does changing my vote and lynching someone who is one of the best villagers in the game going to make myself look good?

As a wolf IMO I wouldn't care who got lynched, and would have actualy prefered a tie in that spot so the villagers have to do day 1 all over again.

1. You save the seer. So double bonus, you got rid of one of the best villagers in the game and you look good as you saved the seer.

2. Yeah, that wouldn't look bad, but the optics of saving the seer - who then got a wolf look good. And you got a number of complements on the move.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

CR, one recommendation I have is not announcing your move in advance (unless you think discussion is needed) so that we can see how the votes shake out. That is your call though.

I see both sides here. The element of surprise works, but at the same time, the BG is still out there.

[Danny]

I'm normally on for deadline, but today need to take my mom for a doctor's appointment so will be out about 6 eastern and won't return until after deadline.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

1. You save the seer. So double bonus, you got rid of one of the best villagers in the game and you look good as you saved the seer.

2. Yeah, that wouldn't look bad, but the optics of saving the seer - who then got a wolf look good. And you got a number of complements on the move.

how did I save the seer?

Tie= no lynch

[PurdueBrad]

Danny, I was thinking about that but we have 14 living players, take out CR, meaning he has a 1/13 chance in hitting the BG. It's a tough call to make, you're right.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I think something is up in the voting between you, Lathum, and lerruiqs. Not sure what yet, but I want to see what if anything happens there.

Looking back through Pass's comments, I think it's worth noting who he was plugging as suspects. Here he was pushing Clap, Lathum and Lerriuqs. Further on he piled on to those pushing Schmidty and Poli as suspect for voting each other. Once outed he did his best to paint Lathum as a target.

Clearly, INsiders are devious folks so we have to take this all with a grain of salt. Still, he seemed content to direct votes at Clap, Lathum, Lerriuqs, Schmidty or Poli, two of which we know to have been good. I tend to think that further exploration of the Lathum/Lerriuqs grudge match is not likely to be fruitful.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

I see both sides here. The element of surprise works, but at the same time, the BG is still out there.

In a 24 hour deadline I like it being a surprise because it keeps the wolves guessing with their night kill.

With there being time between deadlines I think I actualy prefer some discussion about it.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I'm going to go completely with my gut and stay on a veteran for now, although I would assume (but we know what happens when you assume) that there is a wolf in the grouping of: Martin D, USFLTecmo, Cartman, and Lerriuqs. Despite the fact that they are UTR and that in itself is dangerous, I look at it (like the nerd I am) in terms of apprentice-Sith Lord. The more dangerous of the two is the master, which is why I'll go with a veteran.

I'm going to vote Abe for a couple of reasons. His vote also didn't move off of claph (which he may not have been around), he has actually been fairly quiet compared to how he normally plays, and I do think we get some info from his lynch based on voters that were on him day one. Yeah, I'm putting myself out there some but I'll take that chance.

Vote Abe

Actually, I'm usually quieter than some think, unless forced to the spotlight by many votes.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Who here trusts my gut?

I have a suspicion on a potential wolf, but it's all just a gut call, based on a Day One vote and a manner of posting I recognize as something similar to what I believe I might do as a wolf.

I still have my ability to change the lynch, and I figure to be a goner tonight, so if I would do it, today would be the day.

All that said, I can't really say my gut call is any better than any of the other theories floated today (including my other one, linking Pass to lerriuqs, incidentally I like my gut call more than that).

Do it. Be a Lathum!

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Lathum

how did I save the seer?

Tie= no lynch

Yeah, there is that, but a no lynch is what the wolves want. Which is why you look good by breaking the tie and not killing the seer.

[PurdueBrad]

In fact, here is what I'm looking at with CR's gut call:

14 living players, remove CR

13 players, likely 3 wolves left and Drew

4/13 chance he hits someone that is bad or potentially bad
8/13 chance he hits a random good guy
1/13 chance he hits the body guard

Plus, the chances are that we're going to lose CR and his ability sooner rather than later. His biggest value isn't his lynch-changing ability but the fact that he's our only trusted villager. I'm for him going for it and I *think* I'm fine with him acting blindly but I guess there may not be any value in the element of surprise.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Yeah, there is that, but a no lynch is what the wolves want. Which is why you look good by breaking the tie and not killing the seer.

Considering the top two voters were both villagers, I doubt the wolves wanted a no lynch.

[PurdueBrad]

I still like the idea of gathering voting data and then, depending on the vote leader, maybe CR doesn't act. BUT if he does, and it stays quiet until then, we still have decent data to go off of later despite no lynch from the vote. I just don't want to see a bunch of people vote CR so that he has to act and we get no data. I say work under the assumption that he's not acting and then he can make the call.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

In fact, here is what I'm looking at with CR's gut call:

14 living players, remove CR

13 players, likely 3 wolves left and Drew

4/13 chance he hits someone that is bad or potentially bad
8/13 chance he hits a random good guy
1/13 chance he hits the body guard

Plus, the chances are that we're going to lose CR and his ability sooner rather than later. His biggest value isn't his lynch-changing ability but the fact that he's our only trusted villager. I'm for him going for it and I *think* I'm fine with him acting blindly but I guess there may not be any value in the element of surprise.

I wouldn't mind hearing his analysis as my vote is certainly open right now and we may want to lynch that person anyway. Plus if we lynch them the old fashioned way we have the vote analysis to learn from. In the end CR could always end up using it if the voting doesn't turn out the way he wants, but we don't learn much of anything from the voting if it's just a big surprise.

[Autumn]

Despite what I just posted, Lerriuqs is raising red flags for me here. He seems determined to paint Lathum as suspicious, damn any logic. He may just be a passionate villager, I suspect, but I'm not sure.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I still like the idea of gathering voting data and then, depending on the vote leader, maybe CR doesn't act. BUT if he does, and it stays quiet until then, we still have decent data to go off of later despite no lynch from the vote. I just don't want to see a bunch of people vote CR so that he has to act and we get no data. I say work under the assumption that he's not acting and then he can make the call.

We don't have to vote CR, he can duke anything he wants regardless of where the votes fall.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Considering the top two voters were both villagers, I doubt the wolves wanted a no lynch.

then they are crazy.

A no lynch is a huge win for Wolves. It basicly forces everyone to start day 1 over again, but the wolves have the added benefit of a night kill.

Thats why I cast the late vote for Hoops, it didn't look like anyone else would switch and Clap wasn't an option, only leaving Hoops or a tie as our only option unless CR used his ability, something I would have no idea if he would or wouldn't do.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

then they are crazy.

A no lynch is a huge win for Wolves. It basicly forces everyone to start day 1 over again, but the wolves have the added benefit of a night kill.

Thats why I cast the late vote for Hoops, it didn't look like anyone else would switch and Clap wasn't an option, only leaving Hoops or a tie as our only option unless CR used his ability, something I would have no idea if he would or wouldn't do.

Oh I agree with your action. I was online and as much as I didn't want to lynch hoops I would have switched to avoid the tie as well if you or no one else had.

[Autumn]

I don't see any reason to target you for your Day 1 action, Lathum, but it seems to me that since the major vote getters were villagers, it would have been just as good for the wolves to break the tie and knock off two villagers in a day.

I think we're chasing up the wrong tree with this discussion though, which is what makes me wary of Lerriuqs harping on it.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't see any reason to target you for your Day 1 action, Lathum, but it seems to me that since the major vote getters were villagers, it would have been just as good for the wolves to break the tie and knock off two villagers in a day.

I think we're chasing up the wrong tree with this discussion though, which is what makes me wary of Lerriuqs harping on it.

Meh I'm simply responding the Lathum's questions. I actually thought you might be on the right track with your post of who Pass was after and who's already dead...

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Question for Barkeep and USFLTechmo, Why did you guys leave your votes on Abe day 1 when Clap revealed and it was obvious there was going to be an Abe-Hoops run off?

Only new circumstances cause me to change my D1 vote. One bit of randomness tends to be as good as another. As Abe was not any revealed role, I was happy keeping my vote on him.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

In fact, here is what I'm looking at with CR's gut call:

14 living players, remove CR

13 players, likely 3 wolves left and Drew

4/13 chance he hits someone that is bad or potentially bad
8/13 chance he hits a random good guy
1/13 chance he hits the body guard

Plus, the chances are that we're going to lose CR and his ability sooner rather than later. His biggest value isn't his lynch-changing ability but the fact that he's our only trusted villager. I'm for him going for it and I *think* I'm fine with him acting blindly but I guess there may not be any value in the element of surprise.

I take this exact same analysis and come to the conclusion that CR shouldn't use his duking. Just because the power might potentially go unused, doesn't mean that the duke should play the hero. According to your chart there are overwhelming odds that something bad would happen and there is the potential for catastrophe (duking the BG).

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Lathum

then they are crazy.

A no lynch is a huge win for Wolves. It basicly forces everyone to start day 1 over again, but the wolves have the added benefit of a night kill.

Thats why I cast the late vote for Hoops, it didn't look like anyone else would switch and Clap wasn't an option, only leaving Hoops or a tie as our only option unless CR used his ability, something I would have no idea if he would or wouldn't do.

Originally Posted by EagleFan

As of 698:

MartinD 1 - Barkeep49 (660)
lerriuqs 2 - Lathum (677), cartman (686)
Abe Sargent 1 - PurdueBrad (681)
cartman 1 - Autumn (692)


yet to vote: Abe Sargent, USFLTecmo, The Jackal, lerriuqs, Chief Rum, Poli, Danny, MartinD, dubb93

Looks like this is still current.

[Danny]

How the heck did I just quote two separate posts?

[EagleFan]

As of 747:

MartinD 1 - Barkeep49 (660)
lerriuqs 2 - Lathum (677), cartman (686)
Abe Sargent 1 - PurdueBrad (681)
cartman 1 - Autumn (692)
Lathum 1 - lerriuqs (712)


yet to vote: Abe Sargent, USFLTecmo, The Jackal, Chief Rum, Poli, Danny, MartinD, dubb93

[Autumn]

You have reached the Office Drone Zone, obviously your productivity will protect you.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

We don't have to vote CR, he can duke anything he wants regardless of where the votes fall.

I know, but I've played in a couple games here where that is what people have done, which is a cop out to an actual vote. Although maybe you and BK are right, do it publicly and then we can vote that person if we want to save his power.