WW LXXIV Killer Kittens on Mount FujiMori day (GAME OVER- KITTENS WIN)

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

OK. Finally had some time to sit and review Friday's actions...right now, my suspect list is:

Heinz
McCollins
Lathum
PerdueBrad.

My other almost suspect is CW, but my gut tells me that it's just a case of his first game back and not realizing that moving votes a lot can draw suspicion. He's just not pinging my wolfdar at all.

I'm not sure where I'll be moving my vote yet, but it will almost certainly be to one of these 4. In the mean time...

UNVOTE EAGLEFAN

Why me Olie?

I've shown up on 3-4 lists now. Makes me wonder if when I show up as a kitteh if we've got a good idea on who the dogs are.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

jeheinz - late vote switch onto cronin, this could have been an attempt to save PurdueBrad which could mean we found two wolves here if that is the case.

Ok, I have no problem being on people's lists, but please use actual facts.

My vote was the 25th such action out of 38. Meaning that a full 1/3rd of the action took place after my "late" switch. Additionally, there was nearly a full THREE Hours to deadline.

I gotta say EF, you are pingin' like mad.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

To play devil's advocate for a moment.

Let's assume he's good, and is either the seer or the fool. He has a TON of suspicion on him right now, and there's a 50/50 chance his scans are worthless. The wolves could just as easily leave him alive, thusly adding even more distrust to him, and let us do the work for them.

Hell, I think that's the smarter play for the wolves. There's going to be a lot of people who don't trust his scans, even if there WASN'T a fool role in the game.

sorry, this just makes no sense to me.

If he is telling the truth the wolves know it, they will want to kill him ASAP, why do it for them?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Why me Olie?

I've shown up on 3-4 lists now. Makes me wonder if when I show up as a kitteh if we've got a good idea on who the dogs are.

THAT'S what you wonder? You think it's more likely that 3-4 dogs are all accusing you, rather than you're just acting wolfishly?

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Lathum

sorry, this just makes no sense to me.

If he is telling the truth the wolves know it, they will want to kill him ASAP, why do it for them?

The wolves know it.

The villagers don't, and it's pretty much impossible to verify.

[st.cronin]

Lathum,

I agree with Coffee Warlord. Plus I believe PurdueBrad is lying about scanning me.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Lathum, to answer your question - the bolded votes are the ones that caught my attention. The 4 of you just seemed to be voting very close together, moving your votes around, on and off the same people. I might be way off base, but right now, this is all I've got to go off of...tomorrow's vote will hopefully give us some more information.

As for my vote, it was a day 1 vote. I had nothing to go off of in this game, so I just went off past experience. I've played at least 2 games where Hoops is a wolf, and probably more. That vote wasn't based on anything in this game, I would have moved it if there had been damning information on someone, but we didn't so I just stayed where I was. I'm not a player to move votes without reason, if you've played with me before you know that. I think there are patterns to be found in Day 1 votes, but only in "blocks"...who voted with whom and that type of thing, not necessarily who voted for whom - unless we manage to catch a wolf with a Day 1 vote, then it's a whole different analysis.

I think what's missing from that analysis Olie is the note that I was the *first* person on Cronin. How can I impact what happens AFTER I make a vote? I can't.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I think what's missing from that analysis Olie is the note that I was the *first* person on Cronin. How can I impact what happens AFTER I make a vote? I can't.

I agree with this, which is why you were on the bottom of my suspects list during Night 1.

[Lathum]

How can anyone operate under that logic?

PB is going to have to post his scan results each day, eventualy if he is the seer he will hit a wolf, how does it make sense for the wolves to keep him alive so he can potentialy clear someone each day?

[st.cronin]

Hoops is pinging my wolfdar a bit, as well. If it turns out that hoops and Purduebrad are both wolves, that makes day 1 really, really helpful.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Lathum,

I agree with Coffee Warlord. Plus I believe PurdueBrad is lying about scanning me.

cronin, you are being very cryptic.

Is there something you need to tell us?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Hoops is pinging my wolfdar a bit, as well. If it turns out that hoops and Purduebrad are both wolves, that makes day 1 really, really helpful.

cronin, I've been trusting hoops a lot today. I think you might want to reread his posts, and see if you see what I see to trust him -- we've been on the same wavelength so far this game, so I think you might.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Plus I believe PurdueBrad is lying about scanning me.

Why?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Mistype corrected above. Heinz, what pinged you day one?

It was just his general manner of posting. It was the same scenario, hoops finds himself in the cross-fire on Day One, largely, for being hoops.

Last game, I pretty closely watched his interactions, since I had a decent stake in the outcome of him wiggling out of it.

The same scenario mostly presented itself, he wiggled out of it. Only whereas last game the 4-pawn power got him, this game it of course didn't.

His posts just seemed to ring the same in this game and last game as far as tone and what not.

What I can't say for sure is, if the fact I notice it just means I'm getting a better read on hoops overall (wolf or villager) or if these two are somewhat related in that he's a wolf in both.

Personally, while I'm stashing that in the back of my mind, I don't know if I'm voting hoops today. Though I'm certainly changing my vote here in a minute away from Cronin.

[st.cronin]

Pass, I don't think I do. What specifically alarmed me was this, from post 618:

I'm just not sure I like the logical conclusion of that if he is in fact a villager, since it puts Cronin and I as the next two to test with votes/lynch.

Why would he be afraid to lynch me?

[Lathum]

Off to school.

I must be missing something here but I see no reason to lynch PB today.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yet you had time for your witty rejoinder of post 383, right at the deadline? It just struck me as odd that you were guaranteeing a tie in the morning, but when deadline came, and it was a tie, you were sitting there joking around with me.

Pass, haven't you learned by now?

I *always* have time for witty rejoinders

And yes, I posted that after deadline struck. 7 keystrokes and all.

It went like this

- Go Smoke
- Get Held Up
- Sit Down
- See assload of votes
- Figure out I'm confused
- Try and make heads or tails
- Refresh read posts I missed from when I was realizing I was confused
- Realize I'm too confused and by voting I might re-create a tie
- Refresh and see your post and clap's deadline post
- Make "Oh hush." comment.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Lathum

How can anyone operate under that logic?

PB is going to have to post his scan results each day, eventualy if he is the seer he will hit a wolf, how does it make sense for the wolves to keep him alive so he can potentialy clear someone each day?

Again.

1) Look at all the distrust on PB even now If the wolves leave him alive, there will be even MORE distrust, of the 'they didn't kill the seer, my god, he MUST be lying', variety.

2) There's a seer and a fool. We cannot fully trust the scans even if we trust the source of the scans.

If he scans and finds a dog, is the fool, and we axe a cat, he gets lynched the next day.

If he stays alive for much longer, the tidal wave of suspicion on him will get him lynched. Hell, he's still on the block today, I believe.

The only way we can trust him is if he correctly turns up a wolf. The odds of that ain't so great, and then he still has to convince people (no easy task given the aforementioned suspicon) to vote the culprit.

Long story short. If he's the seer, he's fucked. There are much better targets for a wolf than an impotent seer who will prolly get lynched by the villagers in the next couple of days.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

THAT'S what you wonder? You think it's more likely that 3-4 dogs are all accusing you, rather than you're just acting wolfishly?

No, I wonder if they'd be the silly.

I don't think I've been that wolfish, to be honest. It might be just that I know I"m not a wolf.

I think I did much more manipulation and conversation steering when I actually *was* a wolf, like last game

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Hoops is pinging my wolfdar a bit, as well. If it turns out that hoops and Purduebrad are both wolves, that makes day 1 really, really helpful.

Originally Posted by KWhit

Why?

Because I'm the stray, my aura is dark. Worst case scenario, he's the fool. But there's no way he's the seer.

[jeheinz72]

Well it makes no sense to vote for Cronin anymore. I'll give PB the benefit of the doubt, ergo Cronin.

Unvote St. Cronin
Vote Eagle Fan

I haven't played with him a ton of times (once? twice maybe?) but his posts just seem amiss. Granted, I think a lot of it is sarcasm (which never reads well IMO) but still, I tend to cast a suspecting eye on those that suspect me when I know I'm a villager.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Because I'm the stray, my aura is dark. Worst case scenario, he's the fool. But there's no way he's the seer.

Who did you follow last night, why, and what was the result?

[st.cronin]

I followed Seolian last night, no result. I picked him because he was way off the radar.

[Coffee Warlord]

Wellllll then.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Because I'm the stray, my aura is dark. Worst case scenario, he's the fool. But there's no way he's the seer.

Wow.

The way I see it is:

If st.cronin is telling the truth then PB is either a dog or the fool (and expendible).

If st.cronin is lying, then that means he's a lying dog.

The way I see it, we need to vote for one of them today.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Wow.

The way I see it is:

If st.cronin is telling the truth then PB is either a dog or the fool (and expendible).

If st.cronin is lying, then that means he's a lying dog.

The way I see it, we need to vote for one of them today.

Concur.

I'll continue my crusade against Mccollins tomorrow.

Unvote Mccollins
Vote PurdueBrad

[st.cronin]

KWhit - PurdueBrad is claiming I have a light aura. If I'm a wolf, how does it make any sense to contest that?

[KWhit]

If PB comes up as the seer, we'll at least be able to lynch st.cronin tomorrow as a wolf.

Vote PurdueBrad

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I think what's missing from that analysis Olie is the note that I was the *first* person on Cronin. How can I impact what happens AFTER I make a vote? I can't.

Because you GUARANTEED a no-tie, and then failed to deliver. And I know you have reasons, blah blah blah, but to say what you did and then go smoke 10 minutes before deadline knowing that you had that out there and it would look suspicious if you didn't switch - well, it doesn't look good.

Lathum had his vote on CW this morning, then moved it to PB, now he's off PB and defending him pretty hard when there is no concrete evidence that PB is a seer, and if he is - which one (could be the fool...)

McCollins has his vote on CW (or at least does while I'm typing this) but has said he's willing to move

Heinz didn't break the tie, as promised. And also has made the usual wolfy comment "would PB and I be doing this so obviously if we were wolves" (or something to that effect) in post #697.

It's taken me a while to type this (work - stupid phones are busy today) so if anything has changed since I started, well, nothing I can do about that

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by KWhit

If PB comes up as the seer, we'll at least be able to lynch st.cronin tomorrow as a wolf.

Note, if he's the fool, he'll show up as the seer.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Pass, I don't think I do. What specifically alarmed me was this, from post 618:



Why would he be afraid to lynch me?

My guess is that it's more about himself than you. But I think I read you wrong -- I wasn't expecting a stray reveal out of you. I don't see PB being the fool -- he's either the seer or a wolf.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by KWhit

If PB comes up as the seer, we'll at least be able to lynch st.cronin tomorrow as a wolf.

Vote PurdueBrad

You might want to unvote mccollins.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Heinz didn't break the tie, as promised.

Not really defending jeheinz, but I want to point out that I to promised to not have a tie, and went back on it (mainly 'cause I didn't like my other options of hoops and, for a time, cronin). So he's not the only guilty on there.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

KWhit - PurdueBrad is claiming I have a light aura. If I'm a wolf, how does it make any sense to contest that?

It doesn't really, unless you're a wolf making a sacrifice to kill off the seer. And there's not enough benefit there for a wolf to try it, I don't think.

[Coffee Warlord]

God, I need more coffee. Typos abound on that lovely little post.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

You might want to unvote mccollins.

Thanks.

Unvote mccollins
Vote PurdueBrad

[st.cronin]

Also, look, if I'm NOT the stray, let the stray come forward. Its not that critical a role, I don't think. I'm telling you - PurdueBrad is not the seer.

[PurdueBrad]

8 minutes to deadline, looks like I'll be gone. Good luck village.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Because you GUARANTEED a no-tie, and then failed to deliver. And I know you have reasons, blah blah blah, but to say what you did and then go smoke 10 minutes before deadline knowing that you had that out there and it would look suspicious if you didn't switch - well, it doesn't look good.

Lathum had his vote on CW this morning, then moved it to PB, now he's off PB and defending him pretty hard when there is no concrete evidence that PB is a seer, and if he is - which one (could be the fool...)

McCollins has his vote on CW (or at least does while I'm typing this) but has said he's willing to move

Heinz didn't break the tie, as promised. And also has made the usual wolfy comment "would PB and I be doing this so obviously if we were wolves" (or something to that effect) in post #697.

It's taken me a while to type this (work - stupid phones are busy today) so if anything has changed since I started, well, nothing I can do about that

But that's not what you originally posted as your reasoning. You said that we all seemed to be voting close together , moving our votes around on and off people.

I didn't do that.

So when faced with this, you come up with conjectured new reasoning.

My comment earlier which Pass touched on regarding where I jokingly suggested that the 3-4 people who put me on their "list" were the wolves was really only a half joke. I typically don't suspect the *first* person to put me on their list, but when I see more and more people do it, I tend to think that is a wolf making a list in order to keep some villagers in the mix for votes.

But that's neither here nor there, as far as me voting for you, today.

[Coffee Warlord]

Actually, an hour+ till deadline.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

8 minutes to deadline, looks like I'll be gone. Good luck village.

68 minutes, dude.

[KWhit]

I was thinking through this from the angle of what if st.cronin is a wolf? Well, if he is then he would know that PB was the fool (and not the real seer) since PB's scan of st.cronin came back as light aura.

Still assuming st.cronin is a wolf, why would he come out and fake reveal like this just to get the fool killed off? It doesn't make sense.

So I believe him. It doesn't make sense for him to be lying, so PB is either the fool (expendible) or a wolf. We need to vote for him today.

[DanGarion]

Vote st.cronin
It just doesn't seem like he's being truthful about everything.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by dangarion

Vote st.cronin
It just doesn't seem like he's being truthful about everything.

Wow did you just pick up a lot of wolf points if cronin is telling the truth.

[jeheinz72]

I think Cronin is almost certainly telling the truth. While I know I've used the stray-type role in the past to duck a vote as a wolf, I personally only did it when I was a likely lynch target anyhow. Not the case here.

But by all means, if the other stray is out there, come forward and we'll have ourselves a wolf. I don't think we do though.

So that leaves PB's play in all of this.

He's then either a wolf or the Fool.

If he's a wolf, then he was trying to be slick and guessed wrong. Figuring he's a wolf and at most there are 3 others, there was a 1/12 shot he'd hit the stray.

A potentially big factor is that at the time of his reveal, PB was a runaway vote-leader. I don't know for sure which out of a wolf or a seer is more likely to make a reveal like that, but I'm almost certain that a seer doesn't let himself get as close to getting lynched (a tie even) without trying a last-gasp reveal.

So, while it'll only compound a light of guilt upon myself

Unvote EagleFan
Vote PurdueBrad

[DanGarion]

Sorry I haven't come out of my shell and started talking that much, but every time I get to the game and I want to say something you guys are 10 posts ahead of me.

SO much stuff to follow, it gets confusing. I'm just going to go with the person that doesn't seem to be truthful the most for now.

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Wow did you just pick up a lot of wolf points if cronin is telling the truth.

Fine let him, I'll come up light so it won't matter.

[Passacaglia]

Here's what I have:

Coffee Warlord -- mccollins (493), Chief Rum (661)
st.cronin -- dangarion (743)
PurdueBrad -- st.cronin (506), oliegirl (610), hoopsguy (663), The Jackal (683), Coffee Warlord (726), Kwhit (736)
oliegirl --
EagleFan -- RendeR (674), jeheinz72 (721)
mccollins -- Passacaglia (690), Seolian (692)
hoopsguy -- EagleFan (657), PurdueBrad (668), Lathum (670)

[Passacaglia]

Missed heinz's vote. You guys can add it.

[Passacaglia]

I'll add my own.

UNVOTE MCCOLLINS
VOTE PURDUEBRAD