WW LXV-- Enter the CUBICLE (GAME OVER! See Post #1625 For Final Game Post)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I think I'll try getting Vote Render this time around. For whatever reason, his talks as he was about to get lynched didn't strike me as too innocent. More like, defeated and just accepting it without really sounding guilty.

Like I said, I'm voting Render and as always, could change pending any other thoughts that might sway my own thoughts.

You might want to move your vote on a seperate paragraph by itself with alot of white space around. Having it buried there is really easy for Chief and others to miss when trying to do the vote talley.

[mauchow]

vote render

[Alan T]

I think the analysis from day 1 led me to three people, the analysis from day 2 led me to a handful of people to look at.. Only two people end up on both lists for me.. The Jackal and Jeheinz, and due to Fink's death, I don't think they both can be wolves. I don't see any reason to vote differently from yesterday at this point.

Vote Jeheinz

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Man it would have been crazy if after all that we were wolf-wolf. But with two different camps of wolves, I can see how that would happen. The question is, who are the wolves more concerned with -- the villagers, or each other?

My initial impulse for how I would want to play it as a wolf is to kill down the villagers first and then play off against the other wolf team when the villagers are at or near parity. The goal would be to try to obtain a numerical advantage and leverage that to a lead in the votes.

I'm not sure how well that would work, though... there's a bit of a prisoner's dilemma for the wolves, and at any point where they might seem to be gaining control, there will probably still be enough villagers left to unite with the opposing faction, and I don't know who wins the fight for control.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

If Clap is a member of the crew (same team as fink), wanting to start a run on you (one of the people pushing for fink's firing), wouldn't that make you a likely whatever the other team is? Isn't that who we want to go for today, so one wolf team doesn't get too far in front of us and everyone else?

What do you mean by "us and everyone else"?

[Chief Rum]

Off to work again.

Same as before. Gotta question, email me at [email protected].

If it's just to send in your action decisions, just send it to me via PM here, as I will be home for the deadline.

I will be available at that email address to answer questions until 3:30 p.m. PDT, and then I will be coming home and available to run the deadline at its normal time.

Good luck, everyone!

[Dr. Sak]

Wow...a lot of information to process from last night's vote and it is going to be hard to find a pattern. What keeps coming up in my mind is the fact that there had to be a wolf in the group that finished off Fink.

Like it was said earlier, wolfs from one group would like to get rid of the other group to achieve complete victory, so I think we need to look at the final run to lynch fink. In there has to lie a wolf.

finkenst (9)-- jeheinz72 (360), path12 (377), The Jackal (414), Lathum (426), SnDvls (489), Render (491), Passacaglia (568), Schmidty (578), mauboy1 (590)

Render (5)-- Arles (361), oliegirl (403), claphamsa (514), Farrah Whitworth-Rahn (518), Mr. Wednesday (685)

At the time it was 2-2 Jackel, Lathum, and SnDvls went after fink and later on you have Pass, Schmidty, and Mauboy going one after the other to finish him off. Two groups of three (if im not mistaken) consecutive votes. I'm not saying that all of them are wolves, but there is a good chance that there is one or two in that group.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Lathum

what the hell man!

force of habit... im used to playign games where the longest standing vote is the tie breaker....

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Lathum

c'mon Alan.

If I was a wolf would I really call all that attention to myself?

Well, yeah, thats the way you play, if you all of a sudden clammed up we would be waaaay suspicious!

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Dola.. I don't buy that a bit.. I'm just really curious how you managed to come up with that scenerio.. I really feel you are scrambling now.

BINGO! Im some lowly shmcuk

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

force of habit... im used to playign games where the longest standing vote is the tie breaker....

well, I dunno, you could give a reason for voting me at least.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

My initial impulse for how I would want to play it as a wolf is to kill down the villagers first and then play off against the other wolf team when the villagers are at or near parity. The goal would be to try to obtain a numerical advantage and leverage that to a lead in the votes.

I'm not sure how well that would work, though... there's a bit of a prisoner's dilemma for the wolves, and at any point where they might seem to be gaining control, there will probably still be enough villagers left to unite with the opposing faction, and I don't know who wins the fight for control.

I must say im really enjoying this added twist!!!

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What do you mean by "us and everyone else"?

I mentioned a few times last night why I felt it best for us (The villagers) to go after the team opposite Fink to try to keep one wolf team from becoming stronger than the other. If one wolf team got too far ahead then everyone else (other than that wolf team) could be in trouble.

Chief came later and clarified the rule for me that the wolves also have to have 1:1 with us to win, so it is not as dire as suggested, however I think I put together a sound place to start, which is pretty identical to what I suggested day 2. Same suspects keep popping up each day it seems.

[jeheinz72]

Just getting back online, looks like good and bad from the events of the vote. At least we got one wolf which is huge, it gives us something. Losing cronin sucks major booty though.

In re-reading one thing I noticed is really how un-worried RendeR seemed about getting lynched. It just had that vibe of "Oh don't lynch me but I"m not really worried because I know people are going to save me". Like he was more interested in goofing around in his points than trying to avoid getting lynched, since I think he knew his group of cougars wouldn't let it happen. So rather than trying to decipher which wolf saved him by voting fink, and possibly coming up incorrectly, I'm just going to...


Vote RendeR

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think the analysis from day 1 led me to three people, the analysis from day 2 led me to a handful of people to look at.. Only two people end up on both lists for me.. The Jackal and Jeheinz, and due to Fink's death, I don't think they both can be wolves. I don't see any reason to vote differently from yesterday at this point.

Vote Jeheinz

While I see what you're getting at, don't you think it's a wee bit of a stretch that as the first voter of fink it's rather implausible to think that I would have the foresight to predict EIGHT people voting behind me for him?

I mean I get the whole wolves trying to get other wolves lynched thought, but I think you're giving me far too much credit as far as predictive abilities. We're talking a span of almost 250 posts from when I voted until the deadline.

[jeheinz72]

Now that I look a bit closer at the tally, as an office-wide strategy, I think it's fairly clear that last night was a situation of wolves getting wolves killed, wolves saving a wolf, and wolves staying the heck outta dodge. I look at the votes in 3 groups

Group 1
Those that stayed outta the way. That's the one-off votes for non-contenders, which leave 3 living people (bsak voting Lathum, ntn voting SnDvls, Alan voting for me, cronin is dead). I'd surmise there are either 5 or 7 living wolves left (3 or 4 per team) and one fish who may or may not even be a wolf yet. I think this group likely holds 1 wolf, but no more than that. So votes for this group of 3 I'd say have a 33% chance of a hit

Group 2
Those voting for Fink. This group I'd think would certainly contain cougars of course, maybe one crew in there to hide in the trenches. Let's say there are 5 living wolves, I'd say at least 2, possibly 3 of these 9 votes are wolves. So a vote in this group of 9, in my mind has a 22-33% chance of a hit

Group 3
The 5 voters who voted RendeR. I think these are likely the remaining crew members hoping to save fink and there is likely a cougar in here too to try and hide ala a crew member voting for Fink. I'd say there are 2 wolves in here, possibly 3, but let's say 2. I'd put a chance of a hit at 40% if someone were to cast a vote in this group of 5.


Now this is all predicated on it being wolf v wolf last night, which I think it was. RendeR's actions and general vibe just tell me that was the case. Right now my vote is on RendeR, since that's the simplest solution of it all. Plus with one of their members on the line in Fink, I can't imagine they crew would just sit back and let that go on without retaliating and pushing a cougar to the forefront.

I think if I were to move, it'd be to someone in the group of 5. My prime targets would likely be Mr. W and then maybe clap. Arlie I get a vibe as good and Farrah hasn't given me much at all one way or another. Olie I just don't know about, but for some reason in every game I play with her I just believe what she's saying, she seems to earnest for some reason. One of these games she'll likely pull the wool over on my big time. I don't think it's this game though.


That's the game as I see it to this point.

[RendeR]

So based on your own analysis your vote for me makes absolutely no sense what so ever. You should be voting for one of the people who voted FOR me last night.

So wtf?


As for my laize-faire attitude last night I tried to explain it a number of times:

First: I've done the in your face screaming and bitching response to being threatened numerous times, its never saved me and it simply alienates everyone. So its not worth the trouble.

Second: I'm a no-role cubicle filler. I have nothing to offer other than being a numbers builder late in the game. Voting me of doesn't seriously hurt the office group and it doesn't really help either wolf group.

Third: Its far more fun when my vote is cast and I have nothing to do but wait for the outcome of the vote to have a good time screwing around "in-character" and besides, Farrah realy is a fine piece of.....well, anyway

So thats it. Vote for me if you want, When I turn up exactly as I've stated you'll feel foolish and have wasted another day voting off someone who wasn't worth the time or effort.

End of rambling, nothing more to see here, move along, MOOOOVE along!

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by RendeR

So based on your own analysis your vote for me makes absolutely no sense what so ever. You should be voting for one of the people who voted FOR me last night.

So wtf?

Well yes and no. Right now I'm thinking there are 2 lines of thought that I could go with for my vote

#1 being that it was wolf v wolf last night and lynching you will provide us another wolf

#2 being that the subset of people who voted for you will also provide wolves, even on the diminished chance you aren't a wolf. Being that, if you're a wolf, they'd try to get you up there. If you aren't a wolf, they'd at least be pushing for you to save their team member.

I haven't completely made up my mind as far as which route I'll take with my vote (I came up with thought #2 after already casting my vote for you, I came up with #1 quite quickly as I read). So I can see myself changing to a vote along the lines of #2, but need to dig deeper into A) If I want to and B) If so, then who of the five people.

That make sense?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

VOTE FARRAH

I'll get this party started.

So cronin was the gossip, and his vote for Farrah was the first one of the day. This reminds me of the last time I remember cronin being the seer -- he put a vote in on saldana right away. In that game, he took a lot of heat for it, and didn't reveal as the seer until much later in the day, when he felt like he needed to in order to survive. I think saldana then claimed to be the seer as well, and it was a who-do-you-believe scenario. A scan of Farrah seems consistent with what cronin has said before -- I seem to remember him saying that when he's the seer, he likes to scan people with few votes on them.

I think that cronin scanned Farrah, and didn't reveal because he didn't feel he needed to (i.e. there was no heat on him, like the time he scanned saldana), and because with two wolf factions, he felt like he needed to nab multiple wolves, jeheinz-style.

VOTE FARRAH WHITWORTH-RAHN

[Arles]

OK, I am going to take a risk now and let everyone know my role. When the game started, I was told I was the gossip queen. So, my analysis yesterday (esp pertaining to RendeR, OlieGirl and SnDvls) had some "views" that I thought were accurate. However, now that Cronin was named the gossip queen, I now know that I am the fool (which is fairly apropos given my play in the first two games).

With that in mind, I would like to dial back the focus on these three as I may have been fed bad information. Now, stating this may make me more of target to the wolves, but I think it's worth the risk for the workers as a whole. If RendeR and Olie were voted off as workers while I sat by and didn't come clean on some of my logic being partly based on what now may be incorrect data, it may cause the loss of the game.

So, with that in mind, I think it's a good idea to take a step back from day and to focus on the group that voted for fink like Alan T and others said. This includes jeheinz72 (360), path12 (377), The Jackal (414), Lathum (426), SnDvls (489), Render (491), Passacaglia (568), Schmidty (578), mauboy1 (590).

I don't really count Render as he switched to try and save his behind. Pass, Schmidty and mauboy were all pile ons, which makes them look questionable. But, I think we need to cross-reference this list with day 1 votes. What's interesting to me in day one is that "it seems" that the first 5 votes for bullet were all by workers (Barkeep, Cronin, me, Olie and Render). Given none of these people were in the above list (outside of Render for obvious reasons), I'm further inclined to say that Olie and Render are workers and that bullet was not the initial wolf target for day 1 (which may also clear Lathum, but it's not as definitive as other stuff - so he stays).

So, now we are left with jeheinz72 (360), path12 (377), The Jackal (414), Lathum (426), Passacaglia (568), Schmidty (578), mauboy1 (590). So, the pile-ons by Pass, Schmidty and mau lead me to indicate 1-2 of them is a wolf, but 1-2 probably also is not (it would be silly for all 3 wolves from one faction to pile on at the end). Plus, in day one, Mau voted for Schmidty which would seem to indicate one is not a wolf. But, we don't know which one. So, for that reason, I will throw both out:

jeheinz72 (360), path12 (377), The Jackal (414), Lathum (426), Passacaglia (568)

jeheinz72 and the Jackal also voted for each other on day 1 so that leads me to believe they are not in the same wolf faction. So, if we throw them out we are left with:

path12 (377), Lathum (426), Passacaglia (568)

Now, all three could be wolves, but I doubt it. Pass and Lathum are mysteries to me as both have been a little questionable, but I have nothing to tie them to. Plus, the fact that Lathum voted for Bullet with the other "workers" in day 1 makes him seem less "wolfy". However, path12's vote on day 1 is interesting (Barkeep49) as it was the person that ended up being killed by the wolfs that night.

So, given my analysis today, I feel that path12 is the best candidate from that list to be a wolf. Therefore, I

Vote Path12

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

So cronin was the gossip, and his vote for Farrah was the first one of the day. This reminds me of the last time I remember cronin being the seer -- he put a vote in on saldana right away. In that game, he took a lot of heat for it, and didn't reveal as the seer until much later in the day, when he felt like he needed to in order to survive. I think saldana then claimed to be the seer as well, and it was a who-do-you-believe scenario. A scan of Farrah seems consistent with what cronin has said before -- I seem to remember him saying that when he's the seer, he likes to scan people with few votes on them.

I think that cronin scanned Farrah, and didn't reveal because he didn't feel he needed to (i.e. there was no heat on him, like the time he scanned saldana), and because with two wolf factions, he felt like he needed to nab multiple wolves, jeheinz-style.

VOTE FARRAH WHITWORTH-RAHN

I was just in the process of going back and perhaps voting for who he had scanned! Man, you and I are on top of each others moves.

I like this idea just because he would have a better chance of hitting a wolf on his scans than you would've in the past. I like this move.

Unvote RendeR
Vote Farrah

[mauchow]

Holy smokes, Arlie. Interesting stuff.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Arles

path12 (377), Lathum (426), Passacaglia (568)

Now, all three could be wolves, but I doubt it. Pass and Lathum are mysteries to me as both have been a little questionable, but I have nothing to tie them to. Plus, the fact that Lathum voted for Bullet with the other "workers" in day 1 makes him seem less "wolfy". However, path12's vote on day 1 is interesting (Barkeep49) as it was the person that ended up being killed by the wolfs that night.

So, given my analysis today, I feel that path12 is the best candidate from that list to be a wolf. Therefore, I

Vote Path12

Arlie, you went down the same line of thought that I did last night. You missed one thing about Lathum that I saw last night that changed my mind on him and caused me to remove him from that list of likely wolves.. Fink had a good shot at putting Lathum to death the day before. If Lathum and Fink were rival wolves, I would assume he would have taken that chance there, but he didn't.

I'm not really against a Path vote, but I went a different direction with my thinking and chose a different person from the group. I think you and I are on the same page though as far as where we think the best place to look is.

[Dr. Sak]

Wow Arlie has got me thinking and he still has the person I have been saying that is mysterious all along as one of his potential wolves...Lathum.

[jeheinz72]

I get what you're saying Arlie, that makes some sense. A vote for path could be a good route. I just think we're taking a bit group and making some possibly error-entrenched conclusions to whittle to a smaller group. I worry that we're throwing the baby out with the bath water there.

If I'm reading your post right, you scanned RendeR and Olie the first two nights? How does the fool role work? They came up positive but now we know they aren't wolves? Do I have that right?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by bsak16

Wow Arlie has got me thinking and he still has the person I have been saying that is mysterious all along as one of his potential wolves...Lathum.

Yeah I honestly don't know how I read Lathums moves. He's got me flummoxed.

[Dr. Sak]

In the rules it states that The Fool's "results will be random".

[Arles]

My fear with Jeheinz is that he may be the worker and Jackal the wolf (or both workers). With Path, you have the idea that he voted for Barkeep on day 1 (coincidentally the guy that was killed by wolves that night) and he was key in starting the run on Fink yesterday. That's the most "wolfish" behavior I've seen so far given the limited info we have.

As to Farrah, I should also come clean that I think Farrah and I were the subject of CR's note. On the first day, I told her I was a worker and asked her a bunch of questions on the difference between Fool and Gossip (my caveman mind was trying to understand the complexity of these rules). She, of course, said she was a worker as well (which may not have been true).

Still, I think it's fair to say that she may have known I had a good chance at being the gossip. So, given I wasn't voted off the first two nights, that helps her a bit. Still, Cronin's vote is a good line of thinking for her being a wolf.

Now, here's another fear. We don't know how many wolves per faction (i'm guessing 2-4, prob 3?). But, if Farrah is a wolf, she's probably on Fink's faction since she didn't vote for him. That means if we vote her off today, there may only be one 1 wolf in the Fink-Farrah-? faction and all 3 wolves in the second faction. So, given tonight's the wolf-wolf vote, I'm guessing total votes wins. So, here's a scenario that could hose us villagers:

1. Vote fink off in day 2 (Faction #1 wolf)
2. Vote Farrah off in day 3 (Faction #1 wolf).
3. Day 3 night has 3 votes from Faction #2 for the final Faction #1 wolf.

By tomorrow morning, all 3 from Faction #1 are going with all three from Faction 2 left. Faction #2 wins 2 points and starting picking us off.

I really think we should focus on who voted for Fink as voting off the "wrong" wolf could lead to a major victory for the wolves. So, why not vote someone off from the Fink list today (Path12) and then vote Farrah off tomorrow (if she doesn't die in the wolf fight and we still think she's a wolf). If I am right on Path12, then the wolf fight would be 2-2 tonight instead of 3-1 if a Fink wolf goes. Then, it's 3 nights until the next vote and we can try and pin down the other wolves until then.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I get what you're saying Arlie, that makes some sense. A vote for path could be a good route. I just think we're taking a bit group and making some possibly error-entrenched conclusions to whittle to a smaller group. I worry that we're throwing the baby out with the bath water there.

If I'm reading your post right, you scanned RendeR and Olie the first two nights? How does the fool role work? They came up positive but now we know they aren't wolves? Do I have that right?

I did not scan RendeR. I scanned Olie and Lathum and now it looks like I may have had some bad information. At this point, I would recommend holding off all three of Lathum, Olie and RendeR until we get more data. Of the three, Lathum would seem to be the highest chance at a wolf, but I was told he was a worker. So, I'm a little antsy to vote him off as that could have been right. RendeR just doesn't seem to be a wolf given how the 2nd half of yesterday played out and a question on one of my assumptions. I'm guessing the info on Olie I got is wrong as it doesn't make sense with what I know now.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Arles

By tomorrow morning, all 3 from Faction #1 are going with all three from Faction 2 left. Faction #2 wins 2 points and starting picking us off.

On this point, I was thinking hard on it earlier this morning on if we're better off with just 1 faction left or with both factions

On one hand, having both factions makes it harder for any single faction to win.

On the other, my brain says if we just go after one faction, the other will likely out themselves as a result of repeated votes for the one we've eliminated. Conversations may also get clearer as there would be more like 2 voices instead of 3.

Not sure that's enough though to make taking that risk pay off.

[Arles]

I would like the wolves to continue to come after each other as we get more data (ie, with Fink). If one faction goes away, not only do we lose the 3-night wolf vote off, but we also lose some data.

Best case is we end up with 2-3 wolves from different factions and we feel pretty confident as to who they are. Then, we just pick them off over a period of lynch votes. If, say, by tomorrow, the first wolf pack is gone. The Second can just pick us off one-by-one and hide among the villagers on votes. One final item here is the fish. If the first wolf group goes away, the second will probably land the fish (if they haven't already) which could end up with 4 wolves hiding among the rest of us.

I don't want one faction completely eliminated until atleast 3 wolves are gone. Best case is we go into tomorrow down 3 wolves with a 2-1 (or 2-2 with the fish) setup. That way the wolves continue to try and pick each other off over the next 2 lynch votes.

One final point: If Farrah is a wolf, we should keep an eye on who votes for her as I'm sure 1-2 wolves from the opposing faction will be in there.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

On this point, I was thinking hard on it earlier this morning on if we're better off with just 1 faction left or with both factions

On one hand, having both factions makes it harder for any single faction to win.

On the other, my brain says if we just go after one faction, the other will likely out themselves as a result of repeated votes for the one we've eliminated. Conversations may also get clearer as there would be more like 2 voices instead of 3.

Not sure that's enough though to make taking that risk pay off.

I agree with Arles point of view on the subject (I actually said the same things he is saying now earlier last night, but not sure if he saw those or not..)

If you end up with only one side of wolves, we no longer have the gossip to help us and its then a one sided game of WW left to play.

Having both factions go against each other means in some twisted way we have some form of ally at times keeping the other wolf team in check. It also helps us continue to get data points to use later in the game.

We have a relatively small group of people who were instrumental in fink's death that appear to be more interested in pointing us at other people right now (Render / Farrah). It seems a bit bold to think that Cronin would on one hand say all day yesterday that if you could get even one wolf and learn nothing from it, he would go for that.. yet he supposedly had a chance to get a wolf and didn't go for it? Looking at Cronin's vote closer, he voted Farrah after Lathum and I had thrown out a few names to look at closer: Farrah, Jheinz, The Jackal.

It seems to me all along we have been talking about when a wolf dies we finally will have a chance to see who went after them.. then suddenly a wolf dies, and alot of those people instrumental to his death want to distract us elsewhere. I'll move my vote to go along with Arlie on Path if need be, but I'm staying put right now. I definitly agree with Arlie on the path to take though for today.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Arles

One final point: If Farrah is a wolf, we should keep an eye on who votes for her as I'm sure 1-2 wolves from the opposing faction will be in there.

Along those lines, right now the two people who jumped on Farrah early were also the really late vote switchers yesterday on Fink.. Pass and Mauboy.. You have a good point here.

[path12]

Interesting night, and interesting analyses this morning. While I see Arles point, for the record I'll just say for now that his conclusion is mistaken, at least where it comes to me.

I'll have more time today than yesterday to be around, but it won't be for a few hours yet.

[Alan T]

Dola.. I'm starting to think a bit differently once again with my vote. I'm tempted right now to vote for Pass or Mauboy and if one of them end up a wolf, I'll vote for Farrah tommorrow.

[Passacaglia]

I can see where you guys are coming from in a way, but on the other hand, I don't think we can risk killing off villagers in order to get there. I'm curious to see what happens tonight -- it will be the first time the wolves will have an opportunity to kill each other, so we can find out who they're more worried about -- the village, or the other faction. In the meantime, I think we just need to get what wolves we can.

[mauchow]

I won't be around much today just so everyone knows, I'm working 1-9 central.

I realize it may look guilty, my voting pattern of being quick and early with it, but I knew I may not have had a chance later to vote. That's my reasoning of voting quickly. Besides that, it made sense to me.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Dola.. I'm starting to think a bit differently once again with my vote. I'm tempted right now to vote for Pass or Mauboy and if one of them end up a wolf, I'll vote for Farrah tommorrow.

Why not vote Farrah first and work from there?

Ordinaraly I waould say the chance Cronin would hit a wolf on the first 2 nights is slim but there are probably more wolves then usual so it isn't much of a stretch

[Lathum]

dola- I think it is unlikely the fish has been discovered, I would think that would mean there was no night kill in that scenerio

[Arles]

I can never get a read on mau as he jumps all over the place, but he does seemed joined at the hip with Pass now (he could also be agreeing with Pass' logic). If I were to rate wolves by "potential", my top 5 would be:

1. Path12
2. Pass
3. Mau
4. Farrah
5. Lathum

But, the fact that Lathum was safe in my view makes me less likely to vote him off. Also, the top 3 would seem to be part of the non-Fink faction with the Farrah part of the Fink faction (again, assuming they are all wolves). I also doubt all three of Path, Pass and Mau are wolves, but 2 could be and I'm pretty sure one is. At this point, the best guess is Path.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Why not vote Farrah first and work from there?

Ordinaraly I waould say the chance Cronin would hit a wolf on the first 2 nights is slim but there are probably more wolves then usual so it isn't much of a stretch

The logic is that if Farrah is a wolf, she's part of the "Fink faction". So, why not give an extra day to see who is after her. Plus, even if we are 100% right, that faction may be down to 1 wolf or no wolves after tonight's "Wolf-Wolf vote). And that would really impair our ability to find the other faction. If we have faction 1 vs faction 2 v workers, we have more data for finding both factions.

[Lathum]

Great well thought out analysis Arles, just a few things I disagree on

[quote]

Originally Posted by Arles

I don't really count Render as he switched to try and save his behind.

I think you are making a mistake her. A wolf is just as likely to switch his vote as anyone else would be to save their ass.

jeheinz72 and the Jackal also voted for each other on day 1 so that leads me to believe they are not in the same wolf faction.

I think this is also a big mistake. Day one it is a low risk play for them to vote for each other to try and put distance between themselves

[mauchow]

Sorry, Arles about my flip-floppiness. Its due to my newb nature and my ability to be easily persuaded. I do understand the possible guilt that you see but I am just a normal office-mate.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Why not vote Farrah first and work from there?

Ordinaraly I waould say the chance Cronin would hit a wolf on the first 2 nights is slim but there are probably more wolves then usual so it isn't much of a stretch

My thought is to keep the wolf teams close so one of them doesn't hold a huge advantage over both the other team and us.

Farrah is on a short list already of people who tried to save Fink last night, but two things are very clear:


1) Farrah likely is not on the opposite team from Fink
2) The same people who killed fink are after Farrah.

So I am feeling pretty strongly that Farrah likely also is a wolf, but right now I think I'm more interested in trying to even up the sides so to speak if we can. That will help us learn more about both sides than continuing to weaken one side right now.

The more I think about it, the more I'm likely to switch over to one of the Farrah voters and if they turn up as a wolf, definitly come after Farrah tommorrow.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Arles

I can never get a read on mau as he jumps all over the place, but he does seemed joined at the hip with Pass now (he could also be agreeing with Pass' logic).

Yeah, that's kind of weirding me out, too. If I didn't have this dirt on Farrah, I would have been looking his way. I think this is the third day he's voted the same as me, and at least two of those days his votes were within minutes of me.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

My thought is to keep the wolf teams close so one of them doesn't hold a huge advantage over both the other team and us.

Farrah is on a short list already of people who tried to save Fink last night, but two things are very clear:


1) Farrah likely is not on the opposite team from Fink
2) The same people who killed fink are after Farrah.

So I am feeling pretty strongly that Farrah likely also is a wolf, but right now I think I'm more interested in trying to even up the sides so to speak if we can. That will help us learn more about both sides than continuing to weaken one side right now.

The more I think about it, the more I'm likely to switch over to one of the Farrah voters and if they turn up as a wolf, definitly come after Farrah tommorrow.

That's an interesting plan -- vote for one of the Farrah voters (either me or mau). And if that one comes up wolf, you'll go after Farrah tomorrow. What happens if that one comes up villager?

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yeah, that's kind of weirding me out, too. If I didn't have this dirt on Farrah, I would have been looking his way. I think this is the third day he's voted the same as me, and at least two of those days his votes were within minutes of me.

Yeah that's a little too obvious to do if you two were working together...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Arles

The logic is that if Farrah is a wolf, she's part of the "Fink faction". So, why not give an extra day to see who is after her. Plus, even if we are 100% right, that faction may be down to 1 wolf or no wolves after tonight's "Wolf-Wolf vote). And that would really impair our ability to find the other faction. If we have faction 1 vs faction 2 v workers, we have more data for finding both factions.

I think we are micro managing the whole "even out the wolf factions"

We should be happy getting a wolf and not worry about what side they are on.

This all makes no sense to me.

For us to win we need to eliminate all of the wolves from both factions, correct?

So inevetably at some point one faction will have all of their wolves killed and the other will have at least one left, so who really cares what order we eliminate the wolves?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That's an interesting plan -- vote for one of the Farrah voters (either me or mau). And if that one comes up wolf, you'll go after Farrah tomorrow. What happens if that one comes up villager?

Guess the same thing I would do if Farrah turned up a villager. Go back through the votes and see if I can pick anything out. I understand why you don't like my idea, since you are square in the middle of the Anti-fink people right now.

If someone shows me a sure wolf, I'll vote it. Right now all I see is speculation from everyone, so I'm much more fond of my speculation. I'm not right about everyone, I've adjusted my thoughts on a few people already, and maybe will as today continues.

All I have to work on today is there are a group of people who clearly were after Fink, a few people clearly who tried to save him (Farrah and Mr.W), and right now the two groups are colliding with two people in group A going after someone in group B. My thoughts today are as I said, and others have echoed.. to try to explore the other wolf side today based on what we know.

[Alan T]

*shrug* Fine.. Since everyone is so sure she's a wolf. I am amazed at how much information you all get as villagers, since I must have missed the interoffice memo.

Just remember, when one wolf team has all of the people and easily walk through us because we have no seer left that it wasn't my fault we lost.

Unvote Jeheinz
Vote Farrah