NFL 2022 Offseason, Draft, Free Agency

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Just a haunting piece.

Henry Ruggs III crash: How it haunts Tony Rodriguez - Sports Illustrated

Jesus I hope that man gets help. What a completely unnecessary tragedy.

[albionmoonlight]

The Baltimore proposal (teams have to decide on starting yardline) was the best.

These coaches get paid multi millions. They shouldn't be afraid of a little game theory.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Good stuff here.

++ I love it when Jim does a good numbers piece that really slices through the qualitative takes we see in the media.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The Baltimore proposal (teams have to decide on starting yardline) was the best.

These coaches get paid multi millions. They shouldn't be afraid of a little game theory.

There wouldn't be any game theory. There would be one yard line that everyone would pick, with slight variations based on the team.

I also think it's the least "football" solution of all.

My preference was to have Overtime just continue naturally from where regulation ended up and the first team to score wins. That way you're not leaving it up to a toss, but just the natural progression of the game. If the other team ties it with 30 seconds left, you can't just kneel it out to go to OT, because then you'll be punting from a bad position in OT.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

There wouldn't be any game theory. There would be one yard line that everyone would pick, with slight variations based on the team.

I also think it's the least "football" solution of all.

My preference was to have Overtime just continue naturally from where regulation ended up and the first team to score wins. That way you're not leaving it up to a toss, but just the natural progression of the game. If the other team ties it with 30 seconds left, you can't just kneel it out to go to OT, because then you'll be punting from a bad position in OT.

That'd be pretty cool, too.

[QuikSand]

So, Dolphins fan to some degree... letting the dust settle, here's my thinking:

You can definitely construct a reasonable argument that the Dolphins are doing things exactly correctly right now. They have a new coach who promises to innovate on offense - so they go out and assemble pieces that seem like good fits to accompany that. Whether the contracts are perfect, maybe not, but all told bringing in Mostert/Edmunds and Cedric Wilson, plus keeping TE Gesicki, seem like reasonable "get ready for the new system" moves. They add two OL who look like major improvements over where they had, targeting a need. All that seemed reasonable.

And then, when the opportunity presented, they push in both draft picks and cap space to add a #1 target to the offense in Tyreek Hill. Now they are suddenly a "go for it now" team built around a young QB who might (possibly) be good enough to have them in that fortunate position of "good enough QB cheap so built it up around him while you can." I mean, if all they did was position themselves to be a passable offense that can run the ball and complement a well above average defense, most fans would have been okay with that, I think. This sets expectations higher, obviously.

I think that's pretty solid. Is it possible the Hill trade feels unwise after a couple years? Sure. But giving up picks 29 and 50 and some other fluff isn't the same thing as giving up a lottery-tier selection. Even if the Chiefs land someone nice at 1.29, it's not purely part of the trade.

I'm fairly excited for this season ahead.




I'm also aware that I, or anyone, could also find the downsides of the current situation, and easily articulate how the Dolphins simply are still not a title contender even with these moves, so why bother with them? And then you end up with a ton of cap commitment broken LT, a rapidly slowing speed WR, and a mediocre defensive lineman... and a gap in your progression of young players you have to build around. Yeah, can definitely play out that way.

[albionmoonlight]

At a minimum, you have given Tua an offensive coach, and offensive line, and a top tier offensive weapon.

So if he still has that Tua ceiling after all that, then you know to go the Baker route and look elsewhere. But if he really is the guy we thought he was coming out of Alabama, then awesome.

Either way, the Dolphins needed to figure that out before they had to make a major $$ commitment to him, and this seems to be a pretty good way of doing it.

[QuikSand]

Agreed. And if instead they decide they need to go ALL IN in another year or so, then fine you try to mortgage it to get Kyler Murray and try to cobble together an affordable roster for two years with him alongside Tyreek.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I think if you win the toss in OT, you almost have to defer now, right? That way you know just how much you need to score to win or keep the game going.

SI

Since about 40% of overtimes under the existing system go more than two possessions, and that will increase slightly with this change, I think the advantage you get with that knowledge is less than the advantage of having the ball earlier. Teams with the third possession have a winning percentage of about 65%.

[RainMaker]

I still think the best way to do OT is to just continue the game until it is no longer tied. Why do we have to arbitrarily restart the game with an OT period?

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Since about 40% of overtimes under the existing system go more than two possessions, and that will increase slightly with this change, I think the advantage you get with that knowledge is less than the advantage of having the ball earlier. Teams with the third possession have a winning percentage of about 65%.

It's an interesting choice. If you trust your offence, I'd prefer to know what scenario I'm working with. You are always in four down territory and that way you know if you need a FG or a TD to win. I don't think you ever really play for the tie, unless you end up down a FG and are say 4th and 10 from the 30-yard-line. Otherwise, I think the better option is to always go for it on 4th down. Furthermore, if you give up a TD, you should invariably almost always go for two rather than give the ball back.

Because you have the second possession, you have perfect information in terms of what you need to do to win and a route to do it. The only way that doesn't happen is if the team that scores first goes for two. But very few head coaches would have the balls to do that.

[GrantDawg]

Bruce Arians just announced he is retiring. Todd Bowles is being named the new Head Coach for the Buccs

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[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Bruce Arians just announced he is retiring. Todd Bowles is being named the new Head Coach for the Buccs

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I will always remember how Bruce took over for the Colts when Chuck Pagano got sick.

[miami_fan]

I am not really buying the stuff coming out of One Buccaneer Place re: the head coaching change.

[Ksyrup]

Putting two and two together, I suppose the faux retirement was a power play to get Arians to leave? And then they gave it a short period of breathing room between unretirement and Arians leaving so it didn't look completely obvious? It's been reported that Brady knew Arians was leaving before he unretired and that makes sense, especially if he was the reason for Arians retiring!

[albionmoonlight]

Feels like one of those things where the various stories don't really contradict each other.

It seems like Brady and Arians didn't like each other.
And it seems like Arians sincerely wanted to leave Bowles in a position to succeed.

[albionmoonlight]

Beat writers have a better understanding of their teams than national media. Kind of a neat idea to bring them together for a mock:

NFL beat writer mock draft 2022 - YouTube

[Izulde]

Parker and a 5th rounder traded from Dolphins to Patriots for a 3rd rounder. Feels like they sold him low, though that does clear some salary off the books for a guy who was injured a lot last year.

[QuikSand]

I think that price for Parker could prove to be cheap. He's an effective player in the right setup, but he's not well suited for what they seemingly want to do with/around Tua. NE might benefit from having a genuine contested catch guy like that to complement the pieces they do have.

[molson]

Parker's basically replacing N'Keal Harry, so that's a big upgrade.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Putting two and two together, I suppose the faux retirement was a power play to get Arians to leave? And then they gave it a short period of breathing room between unretirement and Arians leaving so it didn't look completely obvious? It's been reported that Brady knew Arians was leaving before he unretired and that makes sense, especially if he was the reason for Arians retiring!

I don't think Brady would have needed to use a "power play" like this though. If he said he didn't want Arians back, Arians wouldn't be back.

Of course it is possible but I just can't seem him messing around with his teasing retirement to get a new coach.

[GrantDawg]

I agree jbergey. I think Tampa would have done anything to keep Brady, and he wouldn't have to make any threat to get rid of Arians if be wanted him gone.

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[NobodyHere]

NFL: Commanders alleged to have hidden ticket revenue, per report

If this is true then I would have to imagine it may be the end of Dan Snyder.

[Lathum]

Can't believe this guy would hide ticket revenue

Washington Redskins owner Dan Snyder's amusing failure at Six Flags.

[albionmoonlight]

I was on Twitter looking at links to hype videos of some prospects. And I was highly amused to see fans tagging their teams in the comments in a “hey, New York Jets, look at this guy“ way. I just love the idea that some NFL team has no idea about a potential third round prospect until the social media intern sees the tag to a hype video on Twitter.

[albionmoonlight]

How the hell is Sam Darnold still only 24 years old?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

How the hell is Sam Darnold still only 24 years old?

They write these guys off so fast. At least one of the recent "bust" quarterbacks are going to have a comeback season in the near future. The trick is predicting whom it will be.

[stevew]

Saints giving up 18 and a future 2023 #1 and 2024 #2 and other stuff(101/237)for 16/19/194(Eagles)

Seems risky. The saints suck on paper

[albionmoonlight]

As a Saints fan, I agree this seems SUPER risky.

[albionmoonlight]

Kind of feels like it is step one of a plan. Like they will package those two firsts to go up and grab . . . someone, I guess.

[NobodyHere]

The Eagles's GM seems know to his wheeling and dealing.

[bhlloy]

I don’t see anyone worth putting that package together for other than Willis. Risky is an understatement.

[Swaggs]

I don’t really love this for either side. So maybe it’s fair?

[QuikSand]

I get this from the Eagles' p.o.v. totally, not from the Saints'. Do this maybe when the pick is on the clock and you know you get the exact guy you really want... maybe I get it then. Not now, though. This is a bad draft.

[JPhillips]

I think it's so important to maximize the rookie QB contract, and I don't like Philly pushing picks to future years.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think it's so important to maximize the rookie QB contract, and I don't like Philly pushing picks to future years.

Philly doesn't agree that they are in the good-QB-on-rookie-contract window... instead, they're setting up to be

[JPhillips]

They're in this weird middle ground where they aren't going to get anyone better though. They have the draft picks this year to have made a move for QB and they aren't going to be bad enough to get a sure thing next year. It sure looks to me like they are trying to win and if that's true they need to maximize what they can do on the rookie contract.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I get this from the Eagles' p.o.v. totally, not from the Saints'. Do this maybe when the pick is on the clock and you know you get the exact guy you really want... maybe I get it then. Not now, though. This is a bad draft.

I agree that I do not like this for the Saints. When you have a new coach and Jameis Winston as your QB, you cannot be dealing future first rounders like its the Brees/Payton years. That could be a top-five pick next year.

That said, here's my best read on the situation:

The Eagles did not want to go into the draft with three first rounders. So I suspect that they told teams that were interested that the deal had to happen now and not on draft night.

So why the Saints? After years of laughing at the salary cap while they chased another ring, the Saints have gone on record saying that they are going to start being more fiscally responsible. So I suspect that they set prices going into free agency and, as a result, they have lost some guys and have not been buyers themselves.

So they then looked at their offseason blueprint and realized (correctly) that they still have multiple major holes on the team. And, having not filled those holes in FA, you either need to trade for players or high picks. And, being up against the cap, rookies are cheaper than trading for vets.

As noted above, I disagree. If you are trading for rookies b/c you have holes to fill, then you are really taking a chance by giving up those future firsts.

At least the draft will be more fun to watch for me :-)

[Swaggs]

I've been seeing a few mocks with the Steelers going with Desmond Ridder, either with their first (at #20) or trading back up into the end of the first.

I would be pretty upset with that at #20, given the consensus is that Pickett and Willis seem to be the only first round talents. I'd be a little better if he falls into the second round and becomes an option there. The Steelers seem to telegraph their first round picks sometimes (Harris last year, Watt, Pouncey, and Heath Miller are examples I can remember in the last 15-20 years), despite them being later in the round. I really feel like they should be in BPA mode in the first two rounds and I'd love to see them have a shot at Jameson Williams if he slides (which I've seen in mocks more recently).

[QuikSand]

It's possible that this move by the Saints lands them two guys toward the bottom of a "tier" at two need positions, OT and WR. And if that was the goal of this trade.... that they like guys like WR Olave/Williams and OT Penning/Reimann, and they felt strongly they need quality youth at both those positions right away, and had no way to do it short of two picks in at least the middle of the 1st... then I guess I don't hate that.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I've been seeing a few mocks with the Steelers going with Desmond Ridder, either with their first (at #20) or trading back up into the end of the first.

I would be pretty upset with that at #20, given the consensus is that Pickett and Willis seem to be the only first round talents. I'd be a little better if he falls into the second round and becomes an option there. The Steelers seem to telegraph their first round picks sometimes (Harris last year, Watt, Pouncey, and Heath Miller are examples I can remember in the last 15-20 years), despite them being later in the round. I really feel like they should be in BPA mode in the first two rounds and I'd love to see them have a shot at Jameson Williams if he slides (which I've seen in mocks more recently).

Nate Tice on the Athletic Football Show had Ridder as his #1 and the only guy he’d consider in the first round.

[stevew]

Speaking of the saints, whatever happened with Kamara? I see it’s pushed back until late April, but we’re crossing him off at least 1/4 of this season and likely the rest of his career, right?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Nate Tice on the Athletic Football Show had Ridder as his #1 and the only guy he’d consider in the first round.

That's the only qb I even sorta like in this draft.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by stevew

Speaking of the saints, whatever happened with Kamara? I see it’s pushed back until late April, but we’re crossing him off at least 1/4 of this season and likely the rest of his career, right?

a few weeks seems like the working assumption - he's still going in dynasty league drafts in line with that

[stevew]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

It's possible that this move by the Saints lands them two guys toward the bottom of a "tier" at two need positions, OT and WR. And if that was the goal of this trade.... that they like guys like WR Olave/Williams and OT Penning/Reimann, and they felt strongly they need quality youth at both those positions right away, and had no way to do it short of two picks in at least the middle of the 1st... then I guess I don't hate that.

I’m betting they bundle the picks and trade up to 4 or 5 to take a QB. Seemed like my first thought that day.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by stevew

I’m betting they bundle the picks and trade up to 4 or 5 to take a QB. Seemed like my first thought that day.

That was my first thought too, and if so I don't like it... I like the "get top guys at hard-to-fill positions now" angle much better. No idea what he actual plan is, though.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

It's possible that this move by the Saints lands them two guys toward the bottom of a "tier" at two need positions, OT and WR. And if that was the goal of this trade.... that they like guys like WR Olave/Williams and OT Penning/Reimann, and they felt strongly they need quality youth at both those positions right away, and had no way to do it short of two picks in at least the middle of the 1st... then I guess I don't hate that.

I still dislike doing it pre-draft instead of on the clock... maybe Philly had other offers, but that Saints 2023 1st for 16 essentially is a pretty juicy trade forward opportunity.

Originally Posted by JPhillips

They're in this weird middle ground where they aren't going to get anyone better though. They have the draft picks this year to have made a move for QB and they aren't going to be bad enough to get a sure thing next year. It sure looks to me like they are trying to win and if that's true they need to maximize what they can do on the rookie contract.

Looks more like the Eagles are getting one more season to evaluate if Hurts is their guy, while also potentially lining up the assets to move up in next year's draft which could (/should) have multiple guys better regarded than #1 in this draft (or go for a guy like Kyler maybe). I agree the Eagles are pretty unlikely to have their own pick be top 10, but there's a decent chance the Saints will be, and the most likely scenario is 2 picks in the teens again like they just had.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Looks more like the Eagles are getting one more season to evaluate if Hurts is their guy, while also potentially lining up the assets to move up in next year's draft which could (/should) have multiple guys better regarded than #1 in this draft (or go for a guy like Kyler maybe). I agree the Eagles are pretty unlikely to have their own pick be top 10, but there's a decent chance the Saints will be, and the most likely scenario is 2 picks in the teens again like they just had.

Yes on this, though I feel the Eagles are sold that they have a tread water guy, not a go win guy, and that Hurts is just another fungible asset - and I agree on that. So keep building, flip Hurts when you can/should, and build to suit. Preferably in a top-heavy draft where maybe you have a choice pick or alternatively you have the ammo go go get one.

Overall, if you buy the "Hurts is mister right now, not mister right" theory, I love what they are doing overall.

[QuikSand]

Charles Davis 2022 NFL mock draft 1.0: Malik Willis to Panthers; Lions finish Round 1 with Matt Corral

Nobody's mock matters

This one has UGA's DE Travon Walker at 1.1, despite... and I'm serious here... pretty damned unflattering college stats. Great combine, super. Could you, you know, actually do anything with that? He might be the ultimate test of this, as he drifts into the consensus 1-4 picks. Wow.

Also, dropping? S Kyle Hamilton, once thought of as pick 3-6... here 1.11? OR Cross slides to pick 13?

And Tyler Linderbaum at... 31? I know, a pure center, but... 31??? A month ago the fun game was ho high could he go? 10? 8? 6? Now being regularly mocked in the bottom third of round one because of flashy 40 times and whatnot. Wow. Maybe someone gets a great bargain there, I think the guy is great and a decade-long stalwart for your team. Go ahead, fall for the slippery edge rusher, cool cool, someone else gets the HOF pivot guy.

[GrantDawg]

The funny thing is, as good as Walker or Wyatt or Davis are this year...Jalen Carter coming out next year might be better.

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