WW 103? - 42 Attempts (Game Over - Conspirators Win) - Page 15

Abe Sargent · 10-14-2009, 06:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

I am curious about something since we have an interesting tie mechanic. What are peoples thoughts on potentially having two of the main suspects being lynched?

I think its dumb. I don;t want to vote for two people on Day three. Let's wiat until we have mor einfo.

Danny · 10-14-2009, 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I think if we had more of an upper hand it might turn out well, but I think more likely than not we would hurt ourselves more. I know this sounds a little self preservation here, but I would feel the same if say it was someone else like BS and Telle.

I guess I would be pretty surprised if one of you and BS was not a wolf.

ntndeacon · 10-14-2009, 06:49 PM

Yikes! Sounds like you re having a rough day, Abe! Hope it doesn't escalate much further

Chief Rum · 10-14-2009, 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Maybe you didn't mean to have your analysis be a driving factor that would lead the voting today. However, you did a lot of analysis with the basic assumption that there was likely exactly one traitor at the meeting. You then complete your post with the following:

And while you may not have meant it to lead the discussion our way, it certainly did so. I almost immediately got a vote after you posted that (the first vote of the day, I believe) so I felt that I needed to respond to your analysis.

I have since said that for other reasons I don't think you are likely to be a wolf, but I had to respond.

I'm out for a bit - try to get back later.

I don't have an issue with you responding; I have an issue with you putting the "force of conviction" behind my analysis, like I was slam dunking on you and other targets in my analysis. You were the only one to do that, and I pointed out several more likely candidates as wolves than you.

You are certainly reading a lot more into that last post about Hitler's meeting than is there. "Fairly likely" is hardly definitive, and I don't think anyone is saying there isn't at least one conspirator in that meeting. I pointed out three top candidates, and you were only really in that group because you were at the meeting and uncleared, with nothing really good in your favor. If I had to bet on which of the three is the conspirator, you would probably be last. I ranked you overall as, what, "mediocre" as a possible wolf? I also used the term "or", as I was clearly noting only one conspirator as "fairly likely", and suggested that if we found the one, that would actually look better for the other two. Meaning if Telle came up a wolf, by this logic, you and PB would actually gain a small bit of trust.

As for others taking it and running it, maybe you need to spend more time looking at their motives rather than putting intentions into my posts that I didn't put there.

Abe Sargent · 10-14-2009, 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Yikes! Sounds like you re having a rough day, Abe! Hope it doesn't escalate much further

me too

Danny · 10-14-2009, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I think its dumb. I don;t want to vote for two people on Day three. Let's wiat until we have mor einfo.

I actually agree for now, but I think this is something that should be considered for later in the game.

Danny · 10-14-2009, 06:56 PM

I think the one aspect we are in really good shape in is that the seer should be guaranteed to get off at least one more scan. The wolves will probably come after me soon, which should give the seer/hitler more time.

Lathum · 10-14-2009, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

In fact, I think Lathum said he thought it was wolfish to specifically play the percentages of looking at the group outside the meeting, and vote for someone only because they were in that non-meeting group.

I never said it was wolfish. I said I don't think it's a great idea.

Lathum · 10-14-2009, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I just had the dad of one of my residents, who literally sucker punched another resident and I kicked her out, call the ACLU on me and is trying to call TV stations.

that sucks.

What does the ACLU have anything to do with it? Do you wolk in a government facility?

Lathum · 10-14-2009, 07:40 PM

I thik that idea is terrible Danny, we kill at least one villager, which cuts down the pool of villagers the wolves have to choose from for their night kills.

KWhit · 10-14-2009, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

I am curious about something since we have an interesting tie mechanic. What are peoples thoughts on potentially having two of the main suspects being lynched?

I don't think it's a good idea at all.

KWhit · 10-14-2009, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I never said it was wolfish. I said I don't think it's a great idea.

Here's what you said. I don't want to mis-state what you intended, so I'll just quote it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- I will be VERY untrusting of people who jump on the whole 3/8 bandwagon.

Like I said earlier, no way IMO EF makes it that easy and it would be an extremely convenient place for a wolf to hide than claim it was the most logical strategy and they were just going along with the crowd.

Autumn · 10-14-2009, 07:58 PM

There's certainly some merit to chewing through our suspect list quicker, I suppose, if we're feeling sure about it. I do feel pretty good about our list of suspects today, but I'm not sure that I feel that good about it, Danny.

Lathum · 10-14-2009, 08:09 PM

I can see how that would be interpretated. I thought you meant I was saying suggesting the idea was wolfish. I meant more along the lines of people piling onto that bandwagon.

JAG · 10-14-2009, 08:17 PM

I'm not breaking new ground, but I think trying to aim for a double lynch is a very bad idea. If both of them are villagers, we'll put ourselves in more of a hole. If one is a wolf, there's potential for vote manipulation to kill the villager at deadline and wiggle out of the wolf getting voted off. Even if that gives us a clear target the following day, it still wastes some time for us. So lots of potential downside.

KWhit · 10-14-2009, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I can see how that would be interpretated. I thought you meant I was saying suggesting the idea was wolfish. I meant more along the lines of people piling onto that bandwagon.

Yeah. I knew what you meant.

KWhit · 10-14-2009, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I don't have an issue with you responding; I have an issue with you putting the "force of conviction" behind my analysis, like I was slam dunking on you and other targets in my analysis. You were the only one to do that, and I pointed out several more likely candidates as wolves than you.

Yes, you did, but you summed up your long, 2-post analysis with a statement that certainly sounded to me like you were suggesting that the village vote for Telle, me, or PB today (in that order).

And clearly someone else thought that's what your analysis was pointing toward too, which is why I immediately got a vote from PB (stating that he was voting for me based at least in part on your analysis).

What I pointed out was that I thought your "conclusion" (the statement that seemed like a conclusion to me, anyway) seemed to contradict your initial premise (that there was more than likely exactly one wolf in the meeting).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

You are certainly reading a lot more into that last post about Hitler's meeting than is there. "Fairly likely" is hardly definitive, and I don't think anyone is saying there isn't at least one conspirator in that meeting. I pointed out three top candidates, and you were only really in that group because you were at the meeting and uncleared, with nothing really good in your favor. If I had to bet on which of the three is the conspirator, you would probably be last. I ranked you overall as, what, "mediocre" as a possible wolf? I also used the term "or", as I was clearly noting only one conspirator as "fairly likely", and suggested that if we found the one, that would actually look better for the other two. Meaning if Telle came up a wolf, by this logic, you and PB would actually gain a small bit of trust.

While all of that is true, it still sounded like you were suggesting that everyone should vote for Telle or me (or PB as a third choice), and I responded based on that. You know how easy it is for an early candidate (which it looked like I might become) to become one of the people in a day-long run off. And since I know I'm a villager, I wanted to avoid that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

As for others taking it and running it, maybe you need to spend more time looking at their motives rather than putting intentions into my posts that I didn't put there.

Jeez. I'm not sure if you're intending that comment to be as condescending as it sounds to me. Who knows? Maybe I'm reading too much into your intent.

But to respond to that statement - You know, it's possible to do both. I can look at your motives for posting it as well as looking at their motives for following it.

Autumn · 10-14-2009, 08:48 PM

I guess if votes stay where they are I will end up moving to Jackal or NTN. They seem like better candidates to me than Bulletsponge, and Telle is slowly drifting out of view. I'm going to wait a bit longer though to see if there's more votes.

bulletsponge · 10-14-2009, 08:59 PM

i am ze loyal Nazi, dont kill ve

KWhit · 10-14-2009, 09:20 PM

Anybody have a vote count?

EagleFan · 10-14-2009, 09:23 PM

As of Post 720:

bulletsponge 5 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698)
The Jackal 3 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682)
Telle 2 - Abe Sargent (633), Autumn (660)
ntndeacon 4 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), Lathum (677), JAG (690)

KWhit · 10-14-2009, 09:24 PM

Thanks, EF.

I am fine with ntndeacon or bullet getting lynched, so I'll leave my vote where it is. I am likely out until after deadline, but will try to make it back.

Autumn · 10-14-2009, 09:30 PM

Telle seems a non-candidate at this point. I like NTN and Jackal as candidates better than bullet. So I can either tie it up with NTN, or add Jackal higher up in the mix. I think with a half an hour still I'll try Jackal and see what comes of it.

UNVOTE TELLE
VOTE THE JACKAL

Telle · 10-14-2009, 09:34 PM

Ok, I'm home from my event. Looks like I'm not just about to be lynched, so I'll take some time to go back through the posts since this afternoon.

Danny · 10-14-2009, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

Ok, I'm home from my event. Looks like I'm not just about to be lynched, so I'll take some time to go back through the posts since this afternoon.

Oh that's what you think!

JK

EagleFan · 10-14-2009, 09:39 PM

October 5, 1939: Warsaw, Poland

After Germany invaded Poland the previous month the Polish Army went underground to continue their duty to their homeland. The first attempted major operation was during a planned German victory parade in Warsaw.

A bomb was planted in Square Charles de Gaulles with the intention of assassinating Hitler.

Unfortunately the bomb failed to detonate and the parade carried on without major incident.

A major theme in many of these assassination attempts is either that of a bomb not detonating or a near miss caused by last minute schedule change.

PurdueBrad · 10-14-2009, 09:40 PM

Hey guys. I tore my calf at softball tonight and can barely walk/move. I don't know how much I'll be on tonight as I have to get sub stuff together for tomorrow. Sorry.

EagleFan · 10-14-2009, 09:40 PM

As of Post 720:

bulletsponge 5 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698)
The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723)
Telle 1 - Abe Sargent (633)
ntndeacon 4 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), Lathum (677), JAG (690)

EagleFan · 10-14-2009, 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hey guys. I tore my calf at softball tonight and can barely walk/move. I don't know how much I'll be on tonight as I have to get sub stuff together for tomorrow. Sorry.

Sorry to hear that. Feel better PB.

Danny · 10-14-2009, 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hey guys. I tore my calf at softball tonight and can barely walk/move. I don't know how much I'll be on tonight as I have to get sub stuff together for tomorrow. Sorry.

Ouch! Feel better PB

Lathum · 10-14-2009, 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hey guys. I tore my calf at softball tonight and can barely walk/move. I don't know how much I'll be on tonight as I have to get sub stuff together for tomorrow. Sorry.

jesus

EagleFan · 10-14-2009, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

jesus

I don't think so, he said he could barely walk not that he could walk on water...

Lathum · 10-14-2009, 09:45 PM

unvote NTN Deacon
Vote Bulletsponge

I don't have real strong feelings TBH I have been to busy to follow as close as I would like, but I don't want to risk any funny business here with a tie.

Abe Sargent · 10-14-2009, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hey guys. I tore my calf at softball tonight and can barely walk/move. I don't know how much I'll be on tonight as I have to get sub stuff together for tomorrow. Sorry.

Wow

Abe Sargent · 10-14-2009, 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

Telle seems a non-candidate at this point. I like NTN and Jackal as candidates better than bullet. So I can either tie it up with NTN, or add Jackal higher up in the mix. I think with a half an hour still I'll try Jackal and see what comes of it.

UNVOTE TELLE
VOTE THE JACKAL

I'm not a big fan of you coming in late and making it a three way instead of a two way

Danny · 10-14-2009, 09:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

unvote NTN Deacon
Vote Bulletsponge

I don't have real strong feelings TBH I have been to busy to follow as close as I would like, but I don't want to risk any funny business here with a tie.

I'm going back and forth between the two honestly.

Telle · 10-14-2009, 09:46 PM

Ouch PB! Hope that heals up quickly for you.

Abe Sargent · 10-14-2009, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

unvote NTN Deacon
Vote Bulletsponge

I don't have real strong feelings TBH I have been to busy to follow as close as I would like, but I don't want to risk any funny business here with a tie.

Completely agree. I have nothing on bulletsponge, but Autumn's Jackals vote tings me a bit and I want insurance.

unvote telle
vote bulletsponge

EagleFan · 10-14-2009, 09:47 PM

As of Post 738:

bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738)
The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723)
ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690)

Danny · 10-14-2009, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I'm not a big fan of you coming in late and making it a three way instead of a two way

I agree with this. If I am being honest, my gut does not have a good feeling about Autumn and has a good feeling about Abe. But my gut day 1 didn't exactly work out too well, so I'm not going to put too much stock into it. Still, making this a three way was really not a great decision I don't think.

Schmidty · 10-14-2009, 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hey guys. I tore my calf at softball tonight and can barely walk/move. I don't know how much I'll be on tonight as I have to get sub stuff together for tomorrow. Sorry.

Sorry. Make sure to weasel some Vicodin from your doctor!!!!

Danny · 10-14-2009, 09:48 PM

One thing I do notice is for the second day in a row NTN is managing to avoid being on the block at deadline.

Autumn · 10-14-2009, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I'm not a big fan of you coming in late and making it a three way instead of a two way

Well I had the choice of making it a tie and letting bullet sponge's self defense vote decide it, or make it 5-4-4, without changing the lead, and letting people pick out of three. How is that bad?

Abe Sargent · 10-14-2009, 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well I had the choice of making it a tie and letting bullet sponge's self defense vote decide it, or make it 5-4-4, without changing the lead, and letting people pick out of three. How is that bad?

This was the vote before you moved:

bulletsponge 5 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698)
The Jackal 3 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682)
Telle 2 - Abe Sargent (633), Autumn (660)
ntndeacon 4 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), Lathum (677), JAG (690)

You made it 544 instead of 643, for example. I just don;t like it this close otthe deadline.

Autumn · 10-14-2009, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

This was the vote before you moved:

bulletsponge 5 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698)
The Jackal 3 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682)
Telle 2 - Abe Sargent (633), Autumn (660)
ntndeacon 4 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), Lathum (677), JAG (690)

You made it 544 instead of 643, for example. I just don;t like it this close otthe deadline.

That's right. I said several times this afternoon that I felt bullet was the weakest candidate out of the bunch, so I wasn't going to put him up by two. I wasn't going to waste my vote on telle. I could have voted ntn and tied it up, but as I said that seemed a poor move. Is that what you think I should have done?

KWhit · 10-14-2009, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

One thing I do notice is for the second day in a row NTN is managing to avoid being on the block at deadline.

Yeah. Crazy that he's now 3rd in the voting. Well, I won't be moving, but as I said, I'm happy with either Bullet or NTN getting the axe tonight.

EagleFan · 10-14-2009, 10:00 PM

Unrelated to the game but sweet comeback by Team USA.

EagleFan · 10-14-2009, 10:00 PM

deadline

Autumn · 10-14-2009, 10:00 PM

As I said, my move was to make a better history. Notice that suddenly bullet was moved up the list and ntn down. that was the sort of thing I wanted to find out. I'd move again to NTN to see if it happens again, but that will just put the spotlight on me instead of those trying to get people out of the limelight.

Autumn · 10-14-2009, 10:00 PM

oops, deadline latency

10-14-2009, 09:40 PM	#728
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	As of Post 720: bulletsponge 5 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698) The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723) Telle 1 - Abe Sargent (633) ntndeacon 4 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), Lathum (677), JAG (690) Last edited by EagleFan : 10-14-2009 at 09:40 PM.

10-14-2009, 09:47 PM	#739
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	As of Post 738: bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738) The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723) ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690) Last edited by EagleFan : 10-14-2009 at 09:49 PM.

10-14-2009, 06:49 PM	#703
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	Yikes! Sounds like you re having a rough day, Abe! Hope it doesn't escalate much further

10-14-2009, 06:56 PM	#707
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I think the one aspect we are in really good shape in is that the seer should be guaranteed to get off at least one more scan. The wolves will probably come after me soon, which should give the seer/hitler more time.

10-14-2009, 07:40 PM	#710
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I thik that idea is terrible Danny, we kill at least one villager, which cuts down the pool of villagers the wolves have to choose from for their night kills.

10-14-2009, 07:58 PM	#713
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	There's certainly some merit to chewing through our suspect list quicker, I suppose, if we're feeling sure about it. I do feel pretty good about our list of suspects today, but I'm not sure that I feel that good about it, Danny.

10-14-2009, 08:09 PM	#714
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I can see how that would be interpretated. I thought you meant I was saying suggesting the idea was wolfish. I meant more along the lines of people piling onto that bandwagon.

10-14-2009, 08:17 PM	#715
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	I'm not breaking new ground, but I think trying to aim for a double lynch is a very bad idea. If both of them are villagers, we'll put ourselves in more of a hole. If one is a wolf, there's potential for vote manipulation to kill the villager at deadline and wiggle out of the wolf getting voted off. Even if that gives us a clear target the following day, it still wastes some time for us. So lots of potential downside.

10-14-2009, 08:48 PM	#718
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I guess if votes stay where they are I will end up moving to Jackal or NTN. They seem like better candidates to me than Bulletsponge, and Telle is slowly drifting out of view. I'm going to wait a bit longer though to see if there's more votes.

10-14-2009, 08:59 PM	#719
bulletsponge Pro Starter Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: TX	i am ze loyal Nazi, dont kill ve

10-14-2009, 09:20 PM	#720
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	Anybody have a vote count?

10-14-2009, 09:23 PM	#721
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	As of Post 720: bulletsponge 5 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698) The Jackal 3 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682) Telle 2 - Abe Sargent (633), Autumn (660) ntndeacon 4 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), Lathum (677), JAG (690)

10-14-2009, 09:24 PM	#722
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	Thanks, EF. I am fine with ntndeacon or bullet getting lynched, so I'll leave my vote where it is. I am likely out until after deadline, but will try to make it back.

10-14-2009, 09:30 PM	#723
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Telle seems a non-candidate at this point. I like NTN and Jackal as candidates better than bullet. So I can either tie it up with NTN, or add Jackal higher up in the mix. I think with a half an hour still I'll try Jackal and see what comes of it. UNVOTE TELLE VOTE THE JACKAL

10-14-2009, 09:34 PM	#724
Telle College Starter Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Buffalo, NY	Ok, I'm home from my event. Looks like I'm not just about to be lynched, so I'll take some time to go back through the posts since this afternoon.

10-14-2009, 09:39 PM	#726
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	October 5, 1939: Warsaw, Poland After Germany invaded Poland the previous month the Polish Army went underground to continue their duty to their homeland. The first attempted major operation was during a planned German victory parade in Warsaw. A bomb was planted in Square Charles de Gaulles with the intention of assassinating Hitler. Unfortunately the bomb failed to detonate and the parade carried on without major incident. A major theme in many of these assassination attempts is either that of a bomb not detonating or a near miss caused by last minute schedule change.

10-14-2009, 09:40 PM	#727
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Hey guys. I tore my calf at softball tonight and can barely walk/move. I don't know how much I'll be on tonight as I have to get sub stuff together for tomorrow. Sorry.

10-14-2009, 09:45 PM	#733
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	unvote NTN Deacon Vote Bulletsponge I don't have real strong feelings TBH I have been to busy to follow as close as I would like, but I don't want to risk any funny business here with a tie.

10-14-2009, 09:46 PM	#737
Telle College Starter Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Buffalo, NY	Ouch PB! Hope that heals up quickly for you.

10-14-2009, 09:48 PM	#742
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	One thing I do notice is for the second day in a row NTN is managing to avoid being on the block at deadline.

10-14-2009, 10:00 PM	#747
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Unrelated to the game but sweet comeback by Team USA.

10-14-2009, 10:00 PM	#748
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	deadline

10-14-2009, 10:00 PM	#749
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	As I said, my move was to make a better history. Notice that suddenly bullet was moved up the list and ntn down. that was the sort of thing I wanted to find out. I'd move again to NTN to see if it happens again, but that will just put the spotlight on me instead of those trying to get people out of the limelight.

10-14-2009, 10:00 PM	#750
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	oops, deadline latency

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)