WW Dukes Versus Hunters (GAME OVER!!--See Post #1387)

[Shoveler]

Hypothetical situation here.. lets say someone had a limited supply of ammo, and they were about to take a shot between two question marks. Which question mark yields the best information?

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by Shoveler

Hypothetical situation here.. lets say someone had a limited supply of ammo, and they were about to take a shot between two question marks. Which question mark yields the best information?

Are you thinking of shooting?

I would ask you to wait until toMorrow so I can take a shot and see if I can resolve the question of my alignment.

[Grover]

I am convinced that there's no way Martin is a wolf or the cultist. There's no other way around it.

[Autumn]

I suppose if Martin was a wolf, and felt he was done for, it could be a play to find out the bodyguard, but that seems a bit farfetched.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by fontisian

Are you thinking of shooting?

I would ask you to wait until toMorrow so I can take a shot and see if I can resolve the question of my alignment.

How would that resolve anything? You mean you're that hopeful that you'll hit a wolf?

[fontisian]

I mean, the odds of me hitting town and not hitting a hunter are pretty low.

[Autumn]

Once again ignoring the Font/Vaimes/MartinD trinity for a moment to consider other players ... I actually feel better about Narc despite him coming after me tomorrow, that looked like the Narc I know and love. Still unsure about cheeki but he doesn't feel like a must lynch to me, just on my question mark list. EagleFan has me flipflopping my read of him, I'm not sure what I think of him right now. Jackal had a question mark for me day one and then wasn't here day two, so I'll be looking at him a lot today. People I feel pretty good about include britrock, shoveler and Grover. Their input has felt legit.

[EagleFan]

Phone post. Keeping it quick as this just hit me. Font seems to be claiming hunter but is she was wouldn't Vaimes have been killed when he attacked her? Or have I misread that?

[Shoveler]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Phone post. Keeping it quick as this just hit me. Font seems to be claiming hunter but is she was wouldn't Vaimes have been killed when he attacked her? Or have I misread that?

I'm willing to find out.. just need the prior authorization.

[EagleFan]

I want to hear more this evening when I should be able to read through a bit better. Not sure it does is any good to fish to anything.

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by Shoveler

I'm willing to find out.. just need the prior authorization.

Shoveler, please don't shoot me toDay.

Give me a few hours to pick my target, and I'll shoot them. If, by some weirdness, I'm still alive and not confirmed town, you guys can lynch me.

Do not throw your life away for mine, especially when you're acting this towny.

Also, Martin obviously saved both me and Vaimes. All you have to do is ask Chief to confirm.

[fontisian]

Autumn, I believe you are the most likely scum on the Zinto wagon, before Jackal and Narc. I am going to shoot you in one hour unless you give me a reason not to.

[The Jackal]

Martin's suggestion of the kill attempt block is still confusing me, need to digest more.

[Chief Rum]

Just an FYI, as I see much thoughts on shooting.

Tonight I am working the night shift at my night job. So if someone decides to fire a shot now or in the next few hours, the results will have to wait.

That doesn't mean fire now, in the hopes I can get it done before leaving. I am close to shutting down already to head out.

Just saying why there might not be an immediate GM reaction.

I project to getting out of the night job by 10 p.m. PDT, and home after work out/dinner/etc. at 12 a.m. PDT.

[Raven]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Phone post. Keeping it quick as this just hit me. Font seems to be claiming hunter but is she was wouldn't Vaimes have been killed when he attacked her? Or have I misread that?

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hunters can't shoot and kill other Hunters without dying, and Dukes can't Duke to other Dukes without dying.

I'm under the impression that they both remained alive because font was not killed by Vaimes shooting

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Font, I agree that you'll find some scum among the Martin voters, but that's 8 of the 14 of us. The odds are incredibly low that there wouldn't be scum there!

Your list, meanwhile, mentions some of the 8 specifically. Have you explained your suspicions of them previously? If not, could you do that now?

Martin was a known Duke, correct? With so many mechanics going on in on egame (well, essentially two) it seems like those 8 are Hunters or if Dukes, trying to throw off the scent?

Maybe my thinking is off here though

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Raven

I'm under the impression that they both remained alive because font was not killed by Vaimes shooting

I am inclined to agree. If Martin hadn't saved Vaimes, both Vaimes and font would be dead.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Grover

I am inclined to agree. If Martin hadn't saved Vaimes, both Vaimes and font would be dead.

hadn't saved font.

oops.

[Raven]

So Martin is def not the Cultist, since he duked, and Cultist does not have that ability.

Since the bg is a village role - wolves would not target wolf Martin in hopes that bg would be guarding him.

This means Martin is confirmed village, and isn't lying about being protected last night. Also means Cultist was not converted last night.

[Grover]

Can a bodyguard protect themselves?

[Raven]

Originally Posted by Grover

Can a bodyguard protect themselves?

Yes.

BODYGUARD-- This player has the option to watch over one player per night from an attack from the wolves. He can protect himself. He cannot protect the same person two nights in a row.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Raven

Yes.

BODYGUARD-- This player has the option to watch over one player per night from an attack from the wolves. He can protect himself. He cannot protect the same person two nights in a row.

Dur. Thanks. As a noob I should a.) read the rules. Thank you for the info.

[Raven]

No worries. I had to look it up myself. I figured they couldn't, but I was wrong.

[Raven]

Seems unlikely he'd be both medic and bg though.

[Raven]

I think Martin is safe for awhile though. They'd be more inclined to try and find seer/bg/cultist rather than waste a NK on vanilla villager now.

[cheekimonk]

How does Shoveler's "duke to MartinD because 2 deaths are better than one" advice look in light of D2/N2? I must admit, I guess I'm still a noob but I didn't get the logic to start with.

[Grover]

Gonna catch up on Gotham and call it a night. See you lot on the morrow.

Also, cheap shill: Going Dutch? The Incredible Tale of Gelre! - Front Office Football Central

[Autumn]

Font, you shooting me is a terrible idea, and not because it's me, or I'm super important. Because it makes zero sense. I can't see any reason why you would even posit such a strategy.

You are suggesting A) it is likely that you will be killed and thus revealed as villager. This makes very little sense because there have been mostly (all?) Hunters killed so far, and so the majority of the game right now is Dukes. So it's actually more likely your kill will work and you'll remain alive and unrevealed. Since you're suggesting confirming your villagerness is the point of this, it seems pointless.

B) You are suggesting it makes sense for one player to pick a player and force them to claim outside of the lynch process. This is a horrible idea. Time is to the benefit of the village, and the wolves want the game to end as fast as possible. We don't want to force extra claims, certainly not just because one player has a hunch or a theory. Adding one or two villager deaths to the lynching cycle just gets the wolves closer to parity.

C) Your reasoning is screwy. You say that you strongly suspect everyone who pushed to lynch Martin or Vaimes. And yet the only person you are pushing, and indeed suggesting that you are going to kill out of turn, is one of the only people who did not do that. I understand that you suspect me as not following along in order to gain credit. Fine, that's next level thinking. But why are you not showering any suspicion on any of the heaps of people who actually did what you claim to be suspicious of? I haven't heard you even mention one of their names. Oh, because none of them were up for a lynch yesterday and so are not easy targets?

You are a very good player, and shrewd, and so I am finding it hard to believe you have missed all of this. If you are a villager, I hope you can see what a poor plan this is.

[Autumn]

With that, I will be out until morning. I do hope Font was only probing for responses.

[Autumn]

Well, here is the other problem with this shenanigan of an idea.

Possible outcomes, for a villager Font:

Font hits a hunter, and both die.
--Font is shown to be village, Font hits a wolf!
--Font is shown to be village, Font kills a villager.

Font hits a duke, and doesn't die.
--Font hits a wolf! Font is good (most likely!)
--Font hits a villager, Font gets lynched (most likely!)

Because there are more dukes than hunters the second set is more likely. Because there are more villagers than wolves, the villager scenarios are more likely (though I'm sure Font thinks her wolfdar is better than random). So most likely scenario is Font kills a villager, we lynch her, and have wasted a day and lost an extra villager. Both of the hit a hunter scenarios result in an extra death. And even in the best case scenario, Font hits a wolf duke, we don't get any vote history or any more data on the wolf after Font makes a case for the player being a wolf.

There's really no shortcuts, you gotta play the game. Villagers should be saving their shots for when a wolf gets nabbed, not wasting them.

[fontisian]

Autumn:
1. There's a different between townsided kills and scum sided kills. By using a hunter kill from the scummiest hunter every Day we kill 1-2 scummy people who would have likely been lynched anyway. If we take the slow route, scum get to kill their way through a larger ratio of towny and strong players compared to scummy people we can lynch.

2. Timmae, Shoveler and EF all supported the attacks on MartinD and I have attacked them toDay.

3. I have 11 players to pick between. About 3-4 of them are probably hunters, and about 4 are probably scum (counting the cultist). Even with overlap, assume my reads are better than random, I have a very good chance of success.

4. The fact that I'm willing to shoot people without knowing if they're a hunter or not should point towards me being town, just like it points towards Shoveler being town.

5. There's no point in saving shots when only one can be used a Day.

What are your reads?

[MrBug708]

I cant say I disagree with the reasoning on #5

[EagleFan]

A lot of flawed logic by font but that seems par for the course. She has yet to show an argument to support her case and just spouts crap. If she is village as she claims and comes after me the wolves will claim another minor victory for the day.

With that said. I feel useless in this game. Other than phone posting because of insomnia I wouldn't have even checked back until sometime late in the day. I really had no desire to log in and deal with the attitude.

Either way, I am out for a while. Narc should be on soon. If I still can't sleep I will check back to see if a conversation is going on. That I will gladly be part of.

[Narcizo]

If Martin D is a villager and he duked to Vaimes then we deserve to lose. Duking to Vaimes is absolutely the least-villager friendly move he could have made. And then the wolves try to night kill him? Why on earth would they try to kill him? Why would the bodyguard protect him?

Has Font claimed the ammo clip? Otherwise what's up with the threats of shooting people? She's a duke right?

Otherwise I wish you guys would kind of do what I normally do during my day but during the evening. At the moment you're playing with an 8-hour day because there's very little discussion after nightfall.

I say we shoot Font. If she's good then that pretty much clears Martin and we can deal with the ramifications of that. If she's bad then we string up Martin tonight and have a long hard look at Grover tomorrow.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by MartinD

The most obvious reason for me being targeted (in my mind) is that the wolves thought that I was the cultist, and wanted to convert me. (If that was the thinking, they were wrong - I'm now a basic vanilla villager, having used my Medic and Duke one-off powers.)

If they thought you were a cultist then none of the wolves are paying attention because were you a cultist you would have been lynched. You wouldn't be able to duke the vote.

Chief - are there any condition whereby the cultist could duke the vote if they were duke faction?

[Narcizo]

Oh I see you saw that. I should probably read through the entire thread closely before posting.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I suppose if Martin was a wolf, and felt he was done for, it could be a play to find out the bodyguard, but that seems a bit farfetched.

Why? If Martin is a wolf then he knows he's not going to be around much longer - might as well try to get as much information as possible out of the situation. Font also knows that she's not going to be around much more. However if they're converted the cultist then they want to hold on as long as possible so that they can steam-roller with day-kills and dukes and whittle the village numbers right down.

Sort of like what Martin has already done by duking to Vaimes. I'm surprised Font hasn't berated Martin for that move yet.

[fontisian]

I'm a hunter, Narc. I thought that was obvious as of yesterday? No one's shooting me because I'm shooting toDay. Why don't you weigh in on who you think I should shoot?

EF: Calling my reasons "flawed" without providing any reasoning yourself is meaningless doubt-casting. You're like the guy who shouts "fallacy" without being able to elaborate on any problems with the argument. Give reads, provide reasons, and don't dismiss arguments just "because."

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Sort of like what Martin has already done by duking to Vaimes. I'm surprised Font hasn't berated Martin for that move yet.

I did actually. I'm not going to scream at him when he made a great protection decision yesterDay and everyone had horrible ideas for the lynch.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by fontisian

Shoveler, please don't shoot me toDay.

Give me a few hours to pick my target, and I'll shoot them. If, by some weirdness, I'm still alive and not confirmed town, you guys can lynch me.

Do not throw your life away for mine, especially when you're acting this towny.

Also, Martin obviously saved both me and Vaimes. All you have to do is ask Chief to confirm.

This is nonsense. You'll duke the lynch. You're a duke. That's why we should shoot you and not Martin. I don't really understand why you're even trying to argue that you're a hunter. The whole point about Vaimes yesterday was "how did he know it was safe to shoot font"?

How did Martin save Vaimes? By lynching him?

Definitely no need for the bodyguard to reveal. We learn what we need to know by shooting font.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Raven

So Martin is def not the Cultist, since he duked, and Cultist does not have that ability.

Since the bg is a village role - wolves would not target wolf Martin in hopes that bg would be guarding him.

This means Martin is confirmed village, and isn't lying about being protected last night. Also means Cultist was not converted last night.

Or, you know, he could just be making up the story.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by fontisian

I did actually. I'm not going to scream at him when he made a great protection decision yesterDay and everyone had horrible ideas for the lynch.

Protecting anyone pretty much at random wasn't a great protection decision. It was the first in a line of moves I would designate as anti-village.

[fontisian]

Narc, why do you find it so hard to believe that I'm a hunter?

[fontisian]

Pretend I'm telling the truth. I'm about to shoot Autumn. Do you have nothing to say about that?

[Narcizo]

If you're a villager then I could get on board with an Autumn shooting to bring clarity to yesterday's vote. If you're villager then its pretty certain that Martin is and it will show whether it was villager-village or villager-wolf.

[fontisian]

Thank you.

[fontisian]

In case I die here, I have very strong townreads on MartinD and Shoveler, and a weaker townread on Narcizo.

Cheeki, Raven, britrock and MrBug708 are sort of towny.

If Autumn is town, look at The Jackal and Narc for their placement on the Zinto wagon. I'd also take a closer look at Grover, EF and timmae.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

If you use your Hunter kill on another Hunter, in addition to that player dying, you will also die. The only way to avoid this in a regular Hunter kill is to kill a Duke.

Chief - if a hunter kill on another hunter was blocked by the medic would the shooting hunter die?

[Narcizo]

If you're village font I strongly suggest you don't send in a kill order before other people get here to discuss this. I'm viewing you shooting anyone as yet more evidence that you're bad. If you've sent the order then you can take it back until Chief gets here.

I don't think you are a villager. I think you may have an ammo clip which will allow you to shoot someone. That's going to put us in a huge hole as we won't be able to lynch you tonight.

[Narcizo]

Not much more to be done really. I would argue that the body of evidence points overwhelmingly to font/Martin being bad. I'll sort out a voting record during my day. As far as I'm concerned Martin has made two move that greatly damaged the village. Maybe a villager can make one mistake, but if you get two together then it starts not to look like a mistake.