Sports betting?

[Vegas Vic]

Man, these guys have no shame. Degenerates gotta gamble, I guess.

[stevew]

Raptors at 20:1 and Celtics at 22:1 both seem like interesting odds.

[henry296]

So Fan Duel is boosting bets on Tiger to make the cut at +100. They still have him at +225 to miss the cut. Max bet is 50. I have already arbitraged it once as well as the boost on DraftKings. Draft kings limits you to one bet but it appears that Fan Duel would let me place multiple bets at those odds. Any risk they would cancel my bet if I did it again?

[Butter]

Only one way to find out

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Butter

Only one way to find out

I'm afraid of them cancelling the boost bet and leaving me with the hedge bet only.

[Lathum]

Are you asking if they will let you bet the +100 and the +225 so you are freerolling the miss the cut?

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Are you asking if they will let you bet the +100 and the +225 so you are freerolling the miss the cut?

I'm asking if I can do that more than once. I've already done that and in fact, I bet a little less on the miss cut, so I've locked in about 12% ROI.

[Butter]

Sports are almost back.

Got Chicago 1H -0.5, +105 v. Vancouver this morning in MLS.

Been hitting World Team Tennis (yeah, I know) with Springfield and Chicago against just about anybody (except each other) as long as the odds are reasonable (like -150-ish) because they have by far the top-2 rosters in the league and are rolling everybody. Keep an eye out for that, season is about another week and a half long there.

[henry296]

Two good NBA promo offers available depending on your state:

Fan Duel is increasing the odds on the Lakers vs. Clippers game based on how many people bet. Already up to Lakers +10 when it started at Lakers -4. Max bet is $50.

DraftKings is letting you get 5/1 odds on any NBA team for games today and tomorrow. Really good value on either Magic vs. Nets or Suns vs. Wizards. Both games around -275 and about 7 point spreads without the offer. Max Bet is $20. Could hedge and lock in about $65 in profit.

[Butter]

WTA is back, baby! ATP and WTA both will restart on 8/21 with the usual Cincinnati Open being played on the site of the US Open, which will be followed a week later by... the US Open. With the French Open starting less than a month later.

Tennis
Men's pre-match: 51-56, -9.92u, Live: 68-49, +22.76u
Women's pre-match: 8-23, -10.36u, Live: 62-52, +26.61u
Futures: 2-12, +0.75u
Total: 191-192, +29.84u

This week (before today):
W PM: 2-3, -1.15u
W Live: 6-2, +3.65u

Today:
W PM: 1-2, -2u
W Live: 1-1, -1.95u



Bets prior to today:

Live
Bouchard -135 v. Kudermetova WIN
Sorribes Tormo +4.5, +110 v. Strycova WIN
S. Williams 2-0, -165 v. Pera LOSS
S. Williams -110 v. Pera for 1.5u WIN
Halep -0.5, -185 v. Krejcikova WIN
S. Williams -115 v. V. Williams WIN
Gauff / Dolehide Set 1 U8.5 games, -150, LOSS
Gauff 2nd set +1.5, +120 v. Dolehide, WIN

Pre-Match
Fernandez -115 v. Stephens WIN
Sorribes Tormo +115 v. Strycova WIN
Bogdan +105 v. Tsurenko PUSH, Tsurenko w/d
Jabeur / Sabalenka parlay, +128 LOSS
S. Williams -3.5, -130, v. V. Williams LOSS
Putintseva / Halep / Begu parlay +132, LOSS


Today

WTA Prague
Bouchard +225 v. Mertens, LOSS

LIVE:
Bouchard 2nd set ML -110 v. Mertens WIN
Begu / Sorribes Tormo O21.5 games, -140


WTA Lexington
Bellis -200 v. Teichmann, LOSS
Gauff -125 v. Jabeur, WIN

Live:
Williams ML v. Rogers, -170 for 1u, -125 for another unit, LOSS

After I put in those last bets, I told my wife that I shouldn't because yesterday Serena literally said that she's "not really trying to win, just want to get some matches in. " Oops

[stevew]

Jamal Murray's 'meaningless' 3 worth $215,000 to one bettor

[Butter]

Tennis
Men's pre-match: 51-56, -9.92u, Live: 68-49, +22.76u
Women's pre-match: 11-28, -13.71u, Live: 70-55, +29.31u
Futures: 2-12, +0.75u
Total: 202-200, +29.39u

Today:
M PM: 0-3, -3.55u
M Live: 2-2, -0.45u
W PM: 1-3, -2u
W Live: n/a

US Open

Men's Pre-match
Isner -1.5 sets v. Johnson -125, LOSS
Martinez +7.5 v. Struff, -130, LOSS
Shapovalov / Jung / Schwartzman parlay, EVEN, LOSS

LIVE:
Gerasimov / Novak parlay, -125, LOSS
Safwat / Simon O32.5 games, -120, LOSS
Sock -165 v. Cuevas, WIN
Mannarino / Zverev parlay, -110, WIN


Women's Pre-match
Kerber / Tomljanovic O20.5 games, -115, LOSS, got to 20 games
Baptiste +5.5 v. Mladenovic, -135, LOSS, got to +6
Blinkova +400 v. Brady, LOSS 0.5u
Kozlova -140 v. Osuigwe, WIN

[henry296]

Here is what I have for the US Open. Match bets are 0.5 units and the futures are 0.25 units.

Today:

Anderson +245 over Zverev
Cuevas +130 over Sock

Futures; all to make semis
Jabeur +1400
C. Garcia +1700
De Minuar +2000
Auger - Aliassime +1100
Millman +2400
Hurkacz + 2000
Schwartzmann + 1100

Also, trying my hand at DFS for night matches (starting after 4:15). Did 3 lineups each entered in double up for 1 unit and a GPP for 0.25

Lineup 1: Bouzkova, Garin, Giorgi, Isner, Opelika, Struff
Lineup 2: Isner, Pegula, Rogers, Sousa, Struff, Van Uytvanck
Lineup 3: Nokak, Johnson, Kraijinovic, Opelika, Van Uytvanck, Yastramska

[Butter]

Yesterday sucked.

Tennis
Men's pre-match: 51-59, -13.47u, Live: 70-51, +22.31u
Women's pre-match: 12-31, -15.71u, Live: 70-55, +29.31u
Futures: 2-12, +0.75u
Total: 205-208, +23.39u

Today:
M PM: 0-1, -1.4u
M Live: 2-2, -0.4u
W PM: 1-0, +1u
W Live:

US Open

Men's Pre-match
Bedene -140 v. Ruusuvuori, LOSS


LIVE:
Sinner -135 v. Khachanov, LOSS
Nishioka +2.5, -115 v. Murray, WIN
Murray 3rd set ML, +110, WIN
McDonald 3-0 v. Ruud, -125, LOSS


Women's Pre-match
Gasparyan / Puig O20.5 games, -125, WIN


Put in some futures, all of these are to win their Quarter of the draw at 0.5u each:

Men:
Raonic +450
Bautista-Agut +700

Women:
Sakkari +800
Pliskova +250
Kvitova +325

[Lathum]

Hey guys. I run a facebook group called Fans of VSIN for anyone that listens or likes discussions about gaming.

We are also doing a Fantasy Football league for members. $25 entry fee paid through leaguesafe. If you want to play Fantasy but not join the Facebook group we can work it out for sure.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/4363...ment&ref=notif

[Vegas Vic]

I'm sad to report that 5Dimes is exiting the US market. They were my favorite book over the years, with 5% juice and dime baseball lines. US players have until September 25 to cash out.

5Dimes Sportsbook Announces US Market Exit

[Lathum]

Thinking about taking the Reds at 20-1 \to win the National League and 40-1 to win the series.

If they get in with those top 3 pitchers they could be a tough out and if they make the NLCS at those odds I could hedge and guarantee a profit.

[Butter]

I see the appeal, but they can't hit.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Butter

I see the appeal, but they can't hit.

I know but in the postseason IMO not as big a deal.

[B & B]

Across 1674 at bats this year, the Reds rank 30th in BA at a robust team .213

Only the Cards have fewer at bats, b/c of COVID cancellations.

I love value / longshot bets like these but hard pass.

[stevew]

Why would you bet 8600 to win 8.60? Is it some money laundering thing or just for a selfie of the ticket? Do you get points on the site for wagering? In a casino would you get comps for throwing large bets like this out?

Bettor places $8.6K bet to win $8.60 if Clemson beats Syracuse

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by stevew

Why would you bet 8600 to win 8.60? Is it some money laundering thing or just for a selfie of the ticket? Do you get points on the site for wagering? In a casino would you get comps for throwing large bets like this out?

Bettor places $8.6K bet to win $8.60 if Clemson beats Syracuse

you wouldn't typically get comps. I believe the wager was made online, which makes it stranger. There are stories of people doing bets like this to hide money during a divorce.

[Butter]

Work really ramped up for a while there, and now tennis season is winding down. 2-3 more weeks of men's tournaments, then sporadic events for a while.

Have a couple futures bets this week:

Djokovic to win Vienna, EVEN
Tsitsipas to win his quarter in Vienna, +175

[Butter]

Trump election betting markets 2020: Offshore oddsmakers made a killing off gullible MAGA supporters.

[Radii]

That reminds, me, my -160 bet on Biden officially paid out Monday when the electoral college voted. Nothing like anything mentioned in that article, but a nice Christmas Bonus of sorts.

[Lathum]

My biggest bet of the year was over 52 tonight. I loved it. When Carr went down I thought I was toast. Then looked good. Then went on maybe the craziest ride I have ever had sweating an over bet. that was truly insane.

[Vegas Vic]

I don't talk about bad beats very often, we all have them, but this one tonight was one of the worst I've experienced in a long time. Had under 138.5 in the Northwestern/Indiana game tonight. The score in regulation was 54-54 (108 total). The under was still covering after the first overtime, 66-66 (132 total). The second overtime did me in with Indiana winning 79-76.

[Lathum]

I have been keeping an eye on LeBron for MVP odds. Decided to pull the trigger today. Saw him +250 at Will Hill. Think he has a great chance. He has 9/12 games left on TV, a chip on his shoulder, and plays several teams that give up a ton of points coming up. Embiid is a sexy pick, but if he sits a few more games tough to give it to a guy who doesn't play 20% of his teams games.

My plan was to make an 8 unit bet. So there is a Will Hill about 20 minutes from me. I take the cash out of the bank and head down. Check the app in my car, still at +250. Walk inside and double check with the ticket writer, who tells me it is +120! I was like, WTF, it is +250 on the app. He says the app and the book can be different and I should bet it on the app. I know from experience if I tried that they wouldn't give me the +250 on the app, and would drop it to +120, then my money would be tied up on the app because no way I take +120, no value there.

About 20 minutes away there is a Parx sportsbook so I decide to run down there. Check the app and it is actually +275 there. Get to the window and talk to the manager, who assures me the number would be the same. Put in the bet, have to wait about 3 minutes to get authorized, and am out the door.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by shazma seher

I love to go in the chicago offspring game. Winds extinguishing and Darvish likes to walk folks. when i was 8, in the Reds game, my friend Roarke isn't awful and Bassit has been splendid.

Spread I am not an aficionado of the over 6Ks for Yu. He strolls a TON of folks, and with the breeze smothering I could see an explode spot for him. best of luck with it.

Don’t ever change.

[sabotai]

There it is.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by sabotai

There it is.

[NobodyHere]

I still want to hear coconut00's opinion on doubling my bets every time I lose a game of blackjack.

[Vegas Vic]

Florida takes the first step in legalizing sports betting. I'll reserve judgment until I see how much juice they're going to be taking out.

Sports betting appears headed to Florida in deal agreed to by governor, Seminole Tribe

[Lathum]

I suspect you will be. A lot of states routinely have -115 and higher. The good thing is you can build a bankroll through bonus whoring if mobile is approved and depending on how many operators there are you can line shop.

[Lathum]

I have a bet on Thibs to be coach of the year at 20-1. It is frustrating there isn't more buzz. The guy have the fucking Knicks 6 games over 500 with the 4 seed.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Florida takes the first step in legalizing sports betting. I'll reserve judgment until I see how much juice they're going to be taking out.

Sports betting appears headed to Florida in deal agreed to by governor, Seminole Tribe

Yup.

STATE: So, we are going to legalize sports betting.

US: Great. So you'll just make it legal for us to start making bets with the established books? Seems easy enough.

STATE: Oh, you wish. You know how the DMV is? We're gonna make sports betting like that. Wait until you hear about our "integrity fees!" Gotta keep the games clean, you know? You'll be assured that when you place a bet, no fewer than six state agencies will have some say in what goes on. Those agencies don't come free, right? But it is worth it to protect the integrity of the games.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I suspect you will be. A lot of states routinely have -115 and higher.

That’s what I’m guessing. I already have several reliable offshore accounts with typical -108 football and basketball lines and dime lines on baseball and hockey moneylines.

[jbergey22]

Yeah. They need to stick in the -110 range. If they need to pay for "integrity" in sports they need to charge the books taking the wagers higher taxes. Degen gamblers have no chance at -115 juice.

My buddy bets through a DK app in Iowa and we compare lines rates from my offshore accounts. He is just getting eaten up on vig. 20 cent baseball lines crushes him. I tell him take the Tigers at +148sh. He will text me back and say I took the Tigers at +133. I will reply SMH. Its a continuous frustration that he doesnt realize the importance of that 15 cents when betting baseball.

The greedy fucks need to realize they have competition and the smart bettors are going to keep going other places(which is maybe what they want) and not pay insane vig.

[albionmoonlight]

I wonder, though, if once the state is in the business of gambling (and getting that sweet sweet -120 vig), it will start cracking down on offshore gambling that it has thusfar been ignoring.

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

It makes me think of weed growers and users who vote against legalization because they know that prices will go up once the state starts taking its cut.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I wonder, though, if once the state is in the business of gambling (and getting that sweet sweet -120 vig), it will start cracking down on offshore gambling that it has thusfar been ignoring.

With digital currency, venmo, apple pay and so many different payment options. I feel that trying to control money is going to be a hard problem for governments to tackle. If they couldnt stop it in 2000, I cant see them being able to stop it now. The internet always seems a couple steps ahead of the government

[GrantDawg]

All they have ro do is make it harder. They will never stop off shore betting, but making it harder will get most of the small bettors to drop out.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Yeah. They need to stick in the -110 range. If they need to pay for "integrity" in sports they need to charge the books taking the wagers higher taxes. Degen gamblers have no chance at -115 juice.

My buddy bets through a DK app in Iowa and we compare lines rates from my offshore accounts. He is just getting eaten up on vig. 20 cent baseball lines crushes him. I tell him take the Tigers at +148sh. He will text me back and say I took the Tigers at +133. I will reply SMH. Its a continuous frustration that he doesnt realize the importance of that 15 cents when betting baseball.

The greedy fucks need to realize they have competition and the smart bettors are going to keep going other places(which is maybe what they want) and not pay insane vig.

Most bettors don't care about the juice. They just want to throw a few bucks on the game to make it interesting. I live in NJ, we always have the highest handle among all states, including Vegas. I see some brutal lines, -120, -130. The average guy just doesn't care or doesn't know.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Most bettors don't care about the juice.

They don't, and it's a shame. For someone that makes a lot of bets in a year, it really adds up.

Let's look at a $100 player who bets on all sports year round and makes about 500 bets per year. If he does his homework and practices good line shopping, he might win about 280 and lose 220. At -110, that translates into a $3,800 profit, but playing at -105 he makes $4,900. The same principle applies to losing bettors, they lose less at -105 than they do at -110. But they don't care about the juice, and they typically don't bet numbers, they bet teams (regardless of the line).

Same thing with dime baseball and hockey lines, where doing your homework and practicing good line shopping can produce a profit. With a 20 cent or higher moneyline, it's highly unlikely for anyone to make much in the long run.

[miami_fan]

Oddsmaker's mistake causes historic line movement on WNBA All-Star Game

Even I know this is a huge mistake.

[albionmoonlight]

Cowboys at Buccaneers Bucs -6.5 52

Cardinals at Titans Titans -2.5 51

Seahawks at Colts Colts -2.5 52

Vikings at Bengals Bengals +3 48

Eagles at Falcons Falcons -3.5 46.5

Jaguars at Texans Texans +2.5 45.5

Steelers at Bills Bills -6 50.5

49ers at Lions Lions +7.5 46

Jets at Panthers Panthers -4 43

Chargers at Washington Washington +1 44.5

Dolphins at Patriots Patriots -2 45.5

Browns at Chiefs Chiefs -6 53

Broncos at Giants Giants +1 42.5

Packers at Saints Saints -2.5 51

Bears at Rams  Rams -7 45

Ravens at Raiders Raiders +4.5 51

Week one is upon us. Do folks have any best bests?

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

Titans -2.5 seems so good that I am not sure what I am missing. Losing their OC maybe? Do people believe in Arizona now?

Bengals +3 at home also looks nice. Fun to take a home dog. And Minnesota might be at the beginning of a lost season.

Keeping with the home dog love, what about Texans +2.5? The team is a dumpster fire over the long term. But Tyrod Taylor is a real QB. And the Jags preseason looked horrible.

I've been really impressed with the Saints this preseason. All signs point to them having another competitive year and not a lost season. But the Packers are really really good. I don't know if I can be giving them points.

Also temped by Lions +7.5 because you are getting over a touchdown at home. And you get to root for Dan Campbell. And the 49ers might outsmart themselves a little bit with that QB platoon idea. You know what, I'll put it on the list. Why not? The point of gambling is to have fun, and that strikes me as fun. (But see Jared Goff).

[Lathum]

Week 1 in the NFL is always so tough. Hard to say how these teams will perform.

I do like the over 63.5 in the Ohio State-Oregon game. tOSU is going to score and Oregon likely knows they will have to open the game up to keep pace. I could see a 38-28 type game easily.

[Vegas Vic]

My hats off to any of you who consistently beat the NFL betting market. I quit betting the NFL years ago. I was busting my ass just to break even. It is by far the tightest and most scrutinized sports betting market out there. A maximum of 15 games per week, with huge volume. If you can find an edge, it's razor thin.

I stick to college football and basketball sides and totals and MLB now. The college betting market has much less volume per game, and there are tons more games per season. Easier to find soft lines, especially the totals. MLB plays nearly every day for six months, with over 2,400 games. It's much easier to grind out a profit with a small edge.

[Lathum]

I rarely bet NFL anymore. Like you said, too tough. I focus mostly on DFS now for MLB and NFL. By doing just some basic research you can get an advantage over half the field.