Werewolf XCVI: The Dark One and The Order of Righteousness (GAME OVER EVIL WINS) - Page 15

claphamsa · 06-09-2009, 10:22 PM

ok, im withdrwaling, I have too much going on, and I cant say i realy care anymore. im sorry

Im sure ill be back, but i shouldnt be, this just isnt fun anymore.

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 10:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

DOLA: BTW another faulty reasoning, which is true now but not when CR posted his analysis, is that the odds of discovering Pass's auroa for today are 0. Tomorrow we get a 20% chance again. But at this point, by Day 5, we'll only have a 73% chance of finding ONE person's aura.

That's not true. It's a 20% chance for each player every night. So we'll find out each player's identity an average of 2.5 days after their jailed.

It's possible (not likely, but possible) that by Day 5 we find out the identity of every player in jail.

dubb93 · 06-09-2009, 10:27 PM

As the Woebegone Prison guards make their last rounds before night fall they discover the cell door to Passacaglia’s cell is wide open. After a search of the grounds Pass is nowhere to be found. Evidence collected suggests Pass is in fact alive and not dead. The evidence also suggests Pass’s escape was an inside job.

Abe has replaced Clap. All votes for Clap have been transferred to Abe. Pass in no longer in jail.

1. Barkeep49
2. lerriuqs
3. USFLTechmo
4. Abe
5. MartinD
6. ~~hoopsguy~~ - Vanilla Villager, Killed Night 1
7. Passacaglia
8. Telle
9. The Jackal
10. Danny
11. Autumn
12. Lathum
13. SnDvls
14. RendeR
15. Chief Rum
16. saldana
17. DaddyTorgo
18. Tyrith
19. path12
20. KWhit
21. Schmidty - Elected King Day 1

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

That's not true. It's a 20% chance for each player every night. So we'll find out each player's identity an average of 2.5 days after their jailed.

It's possible (not likely, but possible) that by Day 5 we find out the identity of every player in jail.

Ugh... Grammar police have at me... "Their" should be "they're" above.

Schmidty · 06-09-2009, 10:29 PM

What the hell?

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 10:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

As the Woebegone Prison guards make their last rounds before night fall they discover the cell door to Passacaglia’s cell is wide open. After a search of the grounds Pass is nowhere to be found. Evidence collected suggests Pass is in fact alive and not dead. The evidence also suggests Pass’s escape was an inside job.

Say what?

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:30 PM

Ok assuming 4 starting wolves as of tomorrow we have a 10% chance of finding one or two wolves. Assuming 5 starting wolves as of tomorrow we have a 13% chance of finding one or two wolves.

Assuming 4 starting wolves we have a 20% chance of lynching one tonight randomly. Assuming 5 starting wolves we have a 25% chance of lynching one tonight randomly.

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 10:30 PM

If the jailed people can be broken free at any time without the benefit of a bodyguard keeping watch, I will rethink my entire strategy.

Ugh...

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:31 PM

Um, so Pass was freed from jail somehow and judging by Schmidty's reaction, it doesn't appear it was him (at least admitting to it).

And then we now have Abe in the game instead of Clap

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

That's not true. It's a 20% chance for each player every night. So we'll find out each player's identity an average of 2.5 days after their jailed.

It's possible (not likely, but possible) that by Day 5 we find out the identity of every player in jail.

No it is right. The odds of having found Pass last night are 0, not 20%. Therefore tonight the odds of finding one person's aurora is 36%, not 49% as CR originally posted.

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Ok assuming 4 starting wolves as of tomorrow we have a 10% chance of finding one or two wolves. Assuming 5 starting wolves as of tomorrow we have a 13% chance of finding one or two wolves.

Assuming 4 starting wolves we have a 20% chance of lynching one tonight randomly. Assuming 5 starting wolves we have a 25% chance of lynching one tonight randomly.

I'd feel pretty good about their only being 4 starting and 1 convert. Based on the recent discussions we had about ideal wolf:villager ratio, I think it is unlikely Dubb gave the wolves 5 starting and 1 convert.

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:32 PM

And latest events are only reaffirming what I'm saying.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:32 PM

UNVOTE JAIL ABE

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

No it is right. The odds of having found Pass last night are 0, not 20%. Therefore tonight the odds of finding one person's aurora is 36%, not 49% as CR originally posted.

Why was it 0% last night?

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

I'd feel pretty good about their only being 4 starting and 1 convert. Based on the recent discussions we had about ideal wolf:villager ratio, I think it is unlikely Dubb gave the wolves 5 starting and 1 convert.

I agree. I feel good about 4+1.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:33 PM

In light of new events - I think this was clap being clap and not clap being a wolf.

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Why was it 0% last night?

Because the scan has happened and it failed. When the dice were rolled it was 20%. It is now 0 as we know that it didn't hit the random chance.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:34 PM

Get back in your pen.

VOTE JAIL PASSACAGLIA

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:34 PM

I feel like we are barking up the wrong tree completely today, I wouldn't be opposed to lynching someone and then even being an all new candidate.

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Why was it 0% last night?

It's important to remember this about statistics, is that past results don't affect the odds of the next roll. So if I flip a coin and it comes up heads, the next time it's still 50/50 that it will come up heads, even though only 1/4 of the time that will happen. But after I flip the coin the first time my odds of heads the next time are NOT effected by the previous flip.

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Because the scan has happened and it failed. When the dice were rolled it was 20%. It is now 0 as we know that it didn't hit the random chance.

Ah, that yeah

dubb93 · 06-09-2009, 10:35 PM

Day 2 Vote Count:

Abe/Clap Jail - 6 - USFL (528), Telle (618), DT (624), CR (626), Autumn (635), KWhit (666)
BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
Abe/Clap Lynch - 3 - Saldana (503), The Jackal (560), BK (698)
USFL Lynch - 2 - Path (557), Schmidty (558)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Clap (656)
Pass Jail - 1 - Tyrith (718)

Yet to Vote: Danny, Render, Pass

USFLTecmo · 06-09-2009, 10:36 PM

Given that we have seen the major flaw in the math that I didn't see earlier, I hereby pull off of the "MUST JAIL" theory. I'm not changing my vote at this point, but I have to wonder why we wouldn't benefit if we just took this as a normal game of werewolf, and not let The Dark One screw with us, or a bad king choice screw with us either.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:36 PM

Um, anyone want to talk about Pass? I'm remembering Tombstone right about now...

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:36 PM

The person I feel the best about voting right now is Sndvls, or Telle.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

The person I feel the best about voting right now is Sndvls, or Telle.

Why Telle?

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:38 PM

I am frustrated by how many people we have here and there's no real movement or discussion about lynching/jailing based on the points I'm bringing up. I feel pretty strongly that lynching is the way to go and would love to see some movement.

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 10:38 PM

Quote:

DOLA: BTW another faulty reasoning, which is true now but not when CR posted his analysis, is that the odds of discovering Pass's auroa for today are 0. Tomorrow we get a 20% chance again. But at this point, by Day 5, we'll only have a 73% chance of finding ONE person's aura.

I suck at statistics, but if we have 3 players in there and they each have a 20% chance of being identified, we will have a better than average chance that at least one of them will be revealed to us. And we win either way, because he's either revealed as a villager and can be released (starting a COT), or as a wolf and can be lynched.

Your statement implies that by day 5 we're likely to only have one player identified. I don't think that's right.

USFLTecmo · 06-09-2009, 10:39 PM

At this point, it's a little late for a cascade of change, no?

On the other hand, I wonder if there's something to that "inside job" thing. Does that mean Pass is a wolf? Or Schmidty? Or am I reading too much into it?

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I am frustrated by how many people we have here and there's no real movement or discussion about lynching/jailing based on the points I'm bringing up. I feel pretty strongly that lynching is the way to go and would love to see some movement.

And I feel strongly that you're wrong.

We have the ability to confirm our votes before a player is removed from the game. That is a huge benefit to the villagers.

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Why Telle?

It's a small thing, but yesterday when I voted Barkeep I thought Pass was the leading vote getter. When I made the vote, Telle pointed out that Barkeep was in the lead. I asked her to post the vote count since she seemed to know. She posted it very quickly. She obviously had the vote count done and handy, but chose not to post it until I pointed it out. And it had been a long while since there was any vote count.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

And I feel strongly that you're wrong.

We have the ability to confirm our votes before a player is removed from the game. That is a huge benefit to the villagers.

We have the ability to potentially confirm our votes over a long period of time, in an unpredictable way. I think a mix strategy is called for, personally.

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

And I feel strongly that you're wrong.

We have the ability to confirm our votes before a player is removed from the game. That is a huge benefit to the villagers.

Of course, I have no idea of the mechanic that allowed Pass to escape, so my strategy may be completely off base.

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

At this point, it's a little late for a cascade of change, no?

On the other hand, I wonder if there's something to that "inside job" thing. Does that mean Pass is a wolf? Or Schmidty? Or am I reading too much into it?

We have a lot of players here right now. It's only too late if you decide it is.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:41 PM

Does anyone really think Abe/clap is bad at this point?

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:41 PM

I'm going to go with that even though it's not something definitive.

Vote jail Telle. I am not necessarily opposed to a lynching either and will switch if others want.

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 10:42 PM

so why would Pass bust out?

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

At this point, it's a little late for a cascade of change, no?

On the other hand, I wonder if there's something to that "inside job" thing. Does that mean Pass is a wolf? Or Schmidty? Or am I reading too much into it?

I think we should let that play out and not make rushed assumptions in the next 15 minutes.

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 10:43 PM

My "Must Jail" strategy assumed that the wolves would have to break out the jailed person in their night action which would give the BG a chance to guard the prison. But that doesn't seem to be the case.

Color me seriously confused.

USFLTecmo · 06-09-2009, 10:43 PM

Okay BK. I'm around. Convince me to change my vote.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:44 PM

Well, no one is saying anything and we're just sitting on the fact that the person about to go to jail is mostly going to jail because the player they succeeded seemed to be on some kind of tilt today.

Telle · 06-09-2009, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

It's a small thing, but yesterday when I voted Barkeep I thought Pass was the leading vote getter. When I made the vote, Telle pointed out that Barkeep was in the lead. I asked her to post the vote count since she seemed to know. She posted it very quickly. She obviously had the vote count done and handy, but chose not to post it until I pointed it out. And it had been a long while since there was any vote count.

Umm.. no. I keep it up to date in Excel in a slightly different format. I tend to post it whenever somebody asks for it.. takes a couple of minutes to do.

USFLTecmo · 06-09-2009, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

My "Must Jail" strategy assumed that the wolves would have to break out the jailed person in their night action which would give the BG a chance to guard the prison. But that doesn't seem to be the case.

Color me seriously confused.

Ditto. I hopped off the bandwagon when I realized that could happen so easily. That's why I'm a bit worried about Schmidty at this point.

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

Ditto. I hopped off the bandwagon when I realized that could happen so easily. That's why I'm a bit worried about Schmidty at this point.

Well, I was worried about Schmidty when he seemed to lobby to be King so adamently, but we all know the king has to be replaced at some point, so I'm not too worried about going his direction yet.

But the inside job thing does make me wonder about him.

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle

Umm.. no. I keep it up to date in Excel in a slightly different format. I tend to post it whenever somebody asks for it.. takes a couple of minutes to do.

Like I said, it is a small thing, but it pinged me a little bit. It's not something damning, but I don't really like the current candidates.

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

I suck at statistics, but if we have 3 players in there and they each have a 20% chance of being identified, we will have a better than average chance that at least one of them will be revealed to us. And we win either way, because he's either revealed as a villager and can be released (starting a COT), or as a wolf and can be lynched.

Your statement implies that by day 5 we're likely to only have one player identified. I don't think that's right.

Yeah the math on that is tricky. I'm having a little trouble putting it together. But, according to my calculations, there's only a 4% chance that we learn 0 people's auras by Day 5. But remember just because we learn an aura doesn't find us a wolf. Randomly picking someone to lynch is going to produce better results until we've got a fairly long timetable.

Schmidty · 06-09-2009, 10:47 PM

If Pass isn't lynched or put back in, I am tempted to change the vote to him.

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 10:48 PM

BK, considering changing your lynch candidate based on clap dropping out?

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

If Pass isn't lynched or put back in, I am tempted to change the vote to him.

Honestly, I think the vote should be just about anything other than what it is at this point.

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:48 PM

BTW: These calculations are even more shot with Pass not being in jail. That 4% actually is 12% now because we'll only have 1 person in jail tonight. And that assumes no more breakouts.

06-09-2009, 10:22 PM	#701
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	ok, im withdrwaling, I have too much going on, and I cant say i realy care anymore. im sorry Im sure ill be back, but i shouldnt be, this just isnt fun anymore. __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

06-09-2009, 10:29 PM	#705
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	What the hell? __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

06-09-2009, 10:47 PM	#747
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	If Pass isn't lynched or put back in, I am tempted to change the vote to him. __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

06-09-2009, 10:30 PM	#707
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Ok assuming 4 starting wolves as of tomorrow we have a 10% chance of finding one or two wolves. Assuming 5 starting wolves as of tomorrow we have a 13% chance of finding one or two wolves. Assuming 4 starting wolves we have a 20% chance of lynching one tonight randomly. Assuming 5 starting wolves we have a 25% chance of lynching one tonight randomly.

06-09-2009, 10:30 PM	#708
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	If the jailed people can be broken free at any time without the benefit of a bodyguard keeping watch, I will rethink my entire strategy. Ugh...

06-09-2009, 10:31 PM	#709
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Um, so Pass was freed from jail somehow and judging by Schmidty's reaction, it doesn't appear it was him (at least admitting to it). And then we now have Abe in the game instead of Clap

06-09-2009, 10:32 PM	#712
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	And latest events are only reaffirming what I'm saying.

06-09-2009, 10:32 PM	#713
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	UNVOTE JAIL ABE

06-09-2009, 10:33 PM	#716
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	In light of new events - I think this was clap being clap and not clap being a wolf.

06-09-2009, 10:34 PM	#718
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Get back in your pen. VOTE JAIL PASSACAGLIA

06-09-2009, 10:34 PM	#719
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I feel like we are barking up the wrong tree completely today, I wouldn't be opposed to lynching someone and then even being an all new candidate.

06-09-2009, 10:36 PM	#723
USFLTecmo H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, Wisconsin	Given that we have seen the major flaw in the math that I didn't see earlier, I hereby pull off of the "MUST JAIL" theory. I'm not changing my vote at this point, but I have to wonder why we wouldn't benefit if we just took this as a normal game of werewolf, and not let The Dark One screw with us, or a bad king choice screw with us either.

06-09-2009, 10:36 PM	#724
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Um, anyone want to talk about Pass? I'm remembering Tombstone right about now...

06-09-2009, 10:36 PM	#725
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	The person I feel the best about voting right now is Sndvls, or Telle.

06-09-2009, 10:38 PM	#727
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	I am frustrated by how many people we have here and there's no real movement or discussion about lynching/jailing based on the points I'm bringing up. I feel pretty strongly that lynching is the way to go and would love to see some movement.

06-09-2009, 10:39 PM	#729
USFLTecmo H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, Wisconsin	At this point, it's a little late for a cascade of change, no? On the other hand, I wonder if there's something to that "inside job" thing. Does that mean Pass is a wolf? Or Schmidty? Or am I reading too much into it?

06-09-2009, 10:41 PM	#735
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Does anyone really think Abe/clap is bad at this point?

06-09-2009, 10:41 PM	#736
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I'm going to go with that even though it's not something definitive. Vote jail Telle. I am not necessarily opposed to a lynching either and will switch if others want.

06-09-2009, 10:42 PM	#737
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	so why would Pass bust out?

06-09-2009, 10:43 PM	#739
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	My "Must Jail" strategy assumed that the wolves would have to break out the jailed person in their night action which would give the BG a chance to guard the prison. But that doesn't seem to be the case. Color me seriously confused.

06-09-2009, 10:43 PM	#740
USFLTecmo H.S. Freshman Team Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Madison, Wisconsin	Okay BK. I'm around. Convince me to change my vote.

06-09-2009, 10:44 PM	#741
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Well, no one is saying anything and we're just sitting on the fact that the person about to go to jail is mostly going to jail because the player they succeeded seemed to be on some kind of tilt today.

06-09-2009, 10:48 PM	#748
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	BK, considering changing your lynch candidate based on clap dropping out?

06-09-2009, 10:48 PM	#750
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	BTW: These calculations are even more shot with Pass not being in jail. That 4% actually is 12% now because we'll only have 1 person in jail tonight. And that assumes no more breakouts.

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)