COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[Edward64]

Based on this clip ...

Rand Paul is saying, after you are vaccinated, why wear a mask.

Fauci is saying you have to wear a mask because there are other "variants" that your vaccine may not protect you as well. I didn't hear him say to stop spreading it also.

I don't agree with how Paul said it but do agree with his central point. If Fauci is right, we'll never be done wearing masks because there will be additional variants popping up here and there.

Now, if Fauci said variants/mutations get weaker from variant #1 to #2 to #3 but wear them now because these variants aren't "weak" (e.g. Europe), I would agree with him.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/...k-in-politics/

Republican senator from Kentucky Rand Paul challenged Dr. Fauci on why Americans should wear masks after being vaccinated during a Senate hearing. Dr. Fauci responded that wearing masks after vaccination would be a good practice considering the unknown potential of Covid-19 variants spreading in communities.

[thesloppy]

I love how Paul keeps using the fact that he was practically the first politician to get covid (and then explicitly refused to isolate) as some sort of position of superiority/knowledge. Shouldn't we all be able to dismiss his opinion immediately?

[Brian Swartz]

Health-wise, we clearly would all be better off if most people wore masks permanently. The question is whether that's a reasonable expectation to have for society.

[JPhillips]

I expect the mask guidance will change when we've reached a higher percentage of people vaccinated.

[ISiddiqui]

I don't get how Rand Paul doesn't understand the concept of varients. The word itself indicates that it isn't the same exact same thing you are getting vaccinated from.

However at some point we'll have herd immunity, and as long as there is no vaccine resistant strain out there by that time (the one in California lowers antibodies but the vaccine still works against it), we should be ok to start getting to normal.

But wearing a mask, social distancing, etc until we get to herd immunity is important so we don't help other varients along.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[sterlingice]

It's like so much of this crap. He gets it, but he wants to try and grandstand and make a really stupid point.

"Only 20% of people are vaccinated, masks do help prevent spread, and we're not sure how much being inoculated decreases the spread, especially with the virus still running wild... but my constituents think they're stupid because it was made into a culture war thing so why should we wear them?!?"

It's like Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley and their stupid points about the insurrection. They know the answers but they're just carnival barkers, whipping up crowds into frenzies with pandering even when they know better.

SI

[henry296]

I'm a little confused about how herd immunity related specifically to variants and not the base virus. I'd like clear answers to the following questions:

1. Does the vaccine reduce the chance of me getting sick from the known virus?
2. Does the vaccine prevent me from spreading known virus to others?
3. Does the vaccine prevent me from getting sick from variants?
4. Does the vaccine prevent me from spreading variants?

I'm confused about what we know about the answer to #3. If the vaccine is less effective in preventing sickness from strains, I'm not sure how herd immunity from vaccination changes anything. If the answer to #2 is No, I'd like to that stated more clearly. You need to keep wearing masks because you might be an asymptomatic carrier even if vaccinated and that applies to all strains.

[ISiddiqui]

So far the vaccine works against all known varients (although it may be slightly less effective - however the vaccine would prevent you getting seriously sick regardless). There isn't enough evidence out there that you can't spread Covid 19 after you've been vaccinated, though it is likely you wouldn't be able to.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Just a data point on Pfizer.

How effective is the first shot of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine?

Using the data from the published study of the Pfizer vaccine, Public Health England determined that vaccine efficacy was 89% for 15-21 days after dose 1 – and before dose 2 on day 21. The range was between 52% and 97%. For days 15-28, or up to the first week after the second dose, protection from the first dose was estimated at 91%. The range for this was between 74% and 97%. A second dose would not be expected to confer immunity within that time.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by henry296

I'm a little confused about how herd immunity related specifically to variants and not the base virus. I'd like clear answers to the following questions:

1. Does the vaccine reduce the chance of me getting sick from the known virus?
2. Does the vaccine prevent me from spreading known virus to others?
3. Does the vaccine prevent me from getting sick from variants?
4. Does the vaccine prevent me from spreading variants?

I'm confused about what we know about the answer to #3. If the vaccine is less effective in preventing sickness from strains, I'm not sure how herd immunity from vaccination changes anything. If the answer to #2 is No, I'd like to that stated more clearly. You need to keep wearing masks because you might be an asymptomatic carrier even if vaccinated and that applies to all strains.

Not a medical expert but from what I've read ...

1) Yes
2) I think officially this is not known thru studies but most will say yes
3) Yes
4) Yes

The deeper question I think to the "yes" is by how much. Question #1 is probably the most studied and there are stats out there. The % chance with other questions is not known as much.

[miked]

First off, Fauci is much smarter than Rand Paul, and not by a little. In this area, he may as well be Einstein (hyperbole, but not by much). Rand Paul loves to be snarky and pretend like he doesn't get it...but he does. It is clearly obvious that a) we do not know how long the immunity from the vaccines lasts, b) we do not know the full efficacy of the vaccine against all variants, c) there are no guarantees that anyone is 100% immune, and d) herd immunity will reduce the prevalence of the virus in the population. Rand Paul is an idiot.

[Brian Swartz]

I'm constantly amazed at the number of people who think it's possible to be an idiot and also earn a medical doctorate and be elected to the Senate multiple times. Those are both accomplishments more impressive than I'll ever achieve in my life, or most other people with above-average IQ will.

[sterlingice]

I thought the point is that he knows better but was knowingly misleading the public to get votes.

Personally, I'd call that more selfish and evil than stupid, though. Self interest over country and all.

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I'm constantly amazed at the number of people who think it's possible to be an idiot and also earn a medical doctorate and be elected to the Senate multiple times.

I'm amazed that anyone thinks any of those things are mutually exclusive with being a general idiot.

{shrug}

[JPhillips]

I've never met Paul, but I will say that Ben Carson is both one of the smartest and one of the dumbest men I've ever met. He's clearly a brilliant neurosurgeon, but he's barely able to put two sentences together about anything else.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm amazed that anyone thinks any of those things are mutually exclusive with being a general idiot

Sociological science is pretty clear on this point. IQ is more strongly associated with success, ability to accomplish complex tasks, etc. than any other factor. It isn't close. It simply isn't possible to be an idiot and acquire any sort of advanced degree, nevermind a doctorate.

[Edward64]

Good article breaking out skeptics of "health care workers".

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...professionals/

The Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation poll shows 35 percent of health-care workers aren’t too confident or aren’t confident at all that the vaccines have been properly tested — a number that’s very similar to the general population. What’s more, 3 in 10 either don’t currently plan to get vaccinated (18 percent) or haven’t yet decided (12 percent). And 1 in 6 says they would actually quit if their employer required them to get vaccinated.
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But it’s worth a closer look at just where the hesitancy comes from.
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For example, about one-quarter of those working in nursing homes, patients’ homes or assisted-living facilities say they don’t plan to get the vaccine, vs. 14 percent who work in doctor’s offices or hospitals.
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The difference is similar when it comes to the type of work they do at those facilities. While 24 percent of those whose job is to assist with patient care say they won’t get the vaccine, the number is halved (12 percent) for those responsible for treating and diagnosing people.
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The biggest gap in the poll, though, is in education.

While 24 percent of those with less than a bachelor’s degree say they don’t plan to get the vaccine, that number is just 11 percent for those with college degrees and just 8 percent for those with postgraduate degrees.

[miami_fan]

Lots of freedom being expressed on South Beach over the last couple of weeks, huh?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Lots of freedom being expressed on South Beach over the last couple of weeks, huh?

I would like to see stats for the reference group up to college age 22 years but the below statistics does show that teenagers and younger adults don't have the same concerns.

Other than the much lower risk of them hospitalized/dying of Covid, the key risk is spreading it to others ... and don't think we know the stats for that. But it is probably lower borne out by no widespread outbreak in HS or College. My kids are both in college, doing majority of work remote but they live in dorms, have labs etc.

[miami_fan]

I hear what you are saying. However, it feels like I could go back in this thread during Spring Break 2020 and the two weeks after that and find the same exact discussion. The kids are not going to die, the risk of spreading it to the less vulnerable etc. Has learning been accomplished?

To be clear, I am not talking about canceling Spring Break, going into lockdowns or anything like that. That ship has sailed. As I have said, I believe as more people are vaccinated, things should be more open. I also agree that we have to determine what our tolerance levels are for an increase in cases, hospitalizations, deaths etc. as we open up. It is more a commentary on local officials eliminating all the Covid restrictions, being shocked that the numbers have shot up again and then telling us of their concerns about those numbers.
That sort of outrage feels very hollow. I would prefer that they just say it is the cost we are willing to pay to get back to normal.

[miked]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm amazed that anyone thinks any of those things are mutually exclusive with being a general idiot.

{shrug}

Somebody gets it.

I did not say Paul was not smart, he is. He knows exactly how to play his constituents and the public. I was not referring to an IQ, he has a medical degree and should know the answers to the questions he was asking Fauci. He was calling wearing masks theater if you've been vaccinated, but that is just not the case. He knows this as a doctor (or maybe he forgot his oath), but as a politician trying to get elected and keep in the spotlight, he knows exactly what he is doing. He is an idiot, but not in an IQ sense, but in the sense that he is allowing the spread of bad knowledge and condoning it as a doctor.

[Atocep]

Last Thursday my supervisor decided we should have a in person branch meeting. Great idea, right? Today I got a contact tracing phone call and was sent for testing and then home to quarantine until next Friday because someone in the meeting tested positive.

I'm fully vaccinated so I'm fine, but hospital policy still requires a quarantine if close and extended contact is made with someone that tests positive and has symptoms.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Last Thursday my supervisor decided we should have a in person branch meeting. Great idea, right? Today I got a contact tracing phone call and was sent for testing and then home to quarantine until next Friday because someone in the meeting tested positive.

I'm fully vaccinated so I'm fine, but hospital policy still requires a quarantine if close and extended contact is made with someone that tests positive and has symptoms.

Paid vacation. What are you complaining about?

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by miked

He is an idiot, but not in an IQ sense, but in the sense that he is allowing the spread of bad knowledge and condoning it as a doctor.

The core of what you're trying to say is a defensible argument (though it's also unknowable, because we don't know what's in Paul's mind, only what he says). What you've described here though is not what an idiot is. The term literally means a stupid person or someone of low intelligence. I fully accept that's not what you meant, but in that case he's simply not an idiot - because that's what an idiot *is*.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Paid vacation. What are you complaining about?

At least for me, it wasn't paid vacation, it was work from home while also not being able to shop or do anything.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

At least for me, it wasn't paid vacation, it was work from home while also not being able to shop or do anything.

This is exactly it. On top of that it's not like it was in April/May when I was teleworking and nearly everyone else in the hospital was as well. Way lower work load then so telework had no impact on my day to day work. Everyone is mostly back now so the work I can't complete while teleworking is just going to be waiting for me and I'll be behind the day I get back.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I've found the further I get into my analytical/administrative career, the more "time off" means "more work when I get back." I need to figure out how to avoid the horror that is returning from vacation.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

I've found the further I get into my analytical/administrative career, the more "time off" means "more work when I get back." I need to figure out how to avoid the horror that is returning from vacation.

I find this especially true for any vacation less than 1 week.

If it's more than one week, people kindof bugger off for bothering you for the mundane day-to-day stuff and go find someone else to help. But I've been taking a number of 2-dayish vacations during the pandemic and it just means more double work days when I get back.

SI

[molson]

I bring work on vacations, which, nobody seems to understand except people I work with. To have a little "free time" to chip away at some things in a relaxed manner so I can be ahead of them when I get back, gives me a peace of mind that makes my vacations more relaxed, and which makes life easier when I return. It also helps remind me what I love about my job, because the work stuff I pick at on vacation is limited to the stuff I enjoy most.

[albionmoonlight]

And now, formally, all adults are eligible in NC on April 7th.

[bhlloy]

CA is going to 50+ April 1st and all adults April 15th, which is a pretty massive jump from where they were (only just opened it up to underlying conditions mid-March).

Barring a really nasty variant that just wipes out vaccine immunity it does feel like we're getting a handle on this thing (at least in the US and the UK). Famous last words.

[Edward64]

I'm all for sharing excess vaccines after US has taken care of the US. But say we should be sharing the excess with non-western allies first, and then after give the rest to COVAX or whoever.

Canada, Mexico (India, Australia if they need it). Any place that has a US base or friendly to the US.

However, I do think the US should continue to help fund/subsidize other neutral developing countries, similar to the $4B contribution to COVAX.

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden...80228bebf75d79

A coalition of nongovernmental organizations is calling on President Joe Biden to immediately begin developing plans to share an expected surplus of hundreds of millions of COVID-19 vaccine doses with the world, once U.S. demand for shots is met.

Biden has repeatedly said his primary focus is on ensuring all Americans can get vaccinated, and on Thursday he outlined a new goal to deliver 200 million doses cumulatively over his first 100 days in office. But with all adults set to be eligible for shots by May 1, and the U.S. set to have enough vaccine for its entire population by the end of July, Biden is being asked to facilitate the sharing of excess doses with the world — and to do so without putting strings on the injections or engaging in “vaccine diplomacy.”
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They argue COVAX would ensure the vaccines are distributed in a way to “maximize equity.” Other countries, such as Russia, China and Israel, have sought to use vaccine sales to bolster their geopolitical positioning.

Biden has moved to have the U.S. contribute financially to the COVAX alliance, which will share vaccines with more than 90 lower- and middle-income nations, but the U.S. has yet to commit to sharing any doses. To date, Biden’s administration has only approved the export of about 4 million doses of AstraZeneca’s vaccine, which is not authorized in the U.S. but is in use around the world, to Canada and Mexico.

In the coming months, the U.S. surplus is expected to reach into the hundreds of millions of doses, allowing for what the White House calls “flexibility” in responding to any shortfalls and future developments on the potential need for booster shots and vaccinating children.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I find this especially true for any vacation less than 1 week.

If it's more than one week, people kindof bugger off for bothering you for the mundane day-to-day stuff and go find someone else to help. But I've been taking a number of 2-dayish vacations during the pandemic and it just means more double work days when I get back.

SI

For me this is true to a point. I think part of my issue is I've never been one to let things be; I always want to tinker and create new ways for my workgroup to look at data. It's been very difficult to find backups who are willing to do that / get their hands dirty learning some of the things I've implemented. I really need to get better at making sure the things I create can live on if I'm not around to support them.

Originally Posted by molson

I bring work on vacations, which, nobody seems to understand except people I work with. To have a little "free time" to chip away at some things in a relaxed manner so I can be ahead of them when I get back, gives me a peace of mind that makes my vacations more relaxed, and which makes life easier when I return. It also helps remind me what I love about my job, because the work stuff I pick at on vacation is limited to the stuff I enjoy most.

See, for me the real joy of vacation is being completely unplugged. I'm not so good at just chipping away at little things; if I open that laptop, I'm going to end up looking up several hours later. Which might be the answer anyway...but just isn't something that I would enjoy, I don't think.

[angela2000]

Wery interesting. Fortunately, there are vaccines

[BYU 14]

So Krispy Kreme is catching grief for offering a free donut to people have been vaccinated against Covid-19, because Donuts are unhealthy too. LOL, why are there so many people that feel a need to call out/'cancel' such trivial shit.

We all know donuts aren't healthy, don't eat one if your are worried about it, or better yet, maybe just eat one instead of the whole fucking box. No good deed goes unpunished.

Krispy Kreme CEO defends COVID vaccine promotion: 'If folks don't want to visit a donut shop, they don't have to'

[Edward64]

For the second time in a year, wife and I ate at an restaurant at their outdoor seating. I can definitely see this happening more and more frequently now. It was really nice to enjoy the outdoor weather, watch people and cars going by.

FWIW, a restaurant, beside the one we were at, closed last year presumably because of covid but place was having a grand opening as a Chinese restaurant. One of those burger joints on the other side had recently closed also.

There's a Dec stat that 17% of restaurants closed (another one said 110,000 restaurants closed). I'm kinda surprised only 17%, would have thought more.

BTW - if I ever got a subway franchise (or any restaurant franchise), it must have a drive through and covered outside sitting

[Edward64]

In a way, a great sign but who knows what will happen. Admittedly, I fall in the below group.

Biden's 100 days of mask wearing is coming up. I know it's not meant to be "hey, we are done, free to do your thing now" but it will become something like that. The real traction in vaccinations (finally!) is making everyone feel better.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/28/inves...ead/index.html

"We've had a phenomenal recovery," said Vrbo president Jeff Hurst in an interview with CNN Business. "We could be looking at a real boom period for leisure travel."

A resurgence in vacations could lift all boats in the sector. Hurst, who also serves as Expedia's co-lead of marketing, said the company's numerous other brands, which include Hotels.com, Travelocity, Orbitz and Hotwire, are starting to bounce back too.

"More people are searching for core urban destinations that had a falling out during the pandemic. People are interested in going to Las Vegas again," Hurst said, adding that there is a certain degree of freedom that people who have already gotten coronavirus shots now feel.

"People will start booking more flights and hotels and resorts will have a big comeback," he said.

But there will be also some people that will want to drive a few hours to go to a rental house in the woods as opposed to flying to a beach or mountain resort and staying in a fancy hotel.

[Lathum]

We just booked a house yesterday to go to Cincinnati this summer.

[Edward64]

Talking to my neighbor today. He does home construction and also flips houses. He said work is okay but pretty difficult finding houses for sale/to flip. He said there are multiple offers and houses are going for more than asking. I read something similar on MSM about lack of houses.

There will be a certain point in time when moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures will go ahead. I don't know what will happen then. Is there even an ETA when it will be lifted?

It seems pretty weird because I would have expected a bunch of House for Sale signs like during the GR. But my guess is those have been artificially restricted because of the moratoriums.

I think that is a good model. In retrospect, should we have done something like that during the GR also?

[henry296]

Same thing in our town, people selling houses before they hit the market.
Historically low interest rates are helping to drive the housing sales.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by henry296

Same thing in our town, people selling houses before they hit the market.
Historically low interest rates are helping to drive the housing sales.

A friend of mine runs a brokerage and said the market is absolutely nuts. He's been working refinances almost non-stop for a year. We bought last June and did a refi last month.

Demand is way above inventory as well. He's seeing crazy shit like people waving inspections and other stuff just to be competitive in this market.

[Thomkal]

Went to Walmart for a grocery pickup yesterday, and people are clearly either liking the convenience of pickup and/or still concerned enough about COVID to keep using it. Had to wait about 15 minutes to get our order with 4 or 5 employees working.

Had to go in the store to get a couple of things and it was pretty well packed. Most still wearing masks-the crowd could have been due to spring break, nice weather, and Easter coming up and probably an itch for normalcy too.

[molson]

I get few unsolicited house offers a week in the mail. The market here is particularly ridiculous. The Zillow value of my house has gone up 2.5X in 3 years, and about 50% since COVID started.

That's part of a longer trend here. My initial investment in the Boise housing market was a $10k down payment in 2009. Since then, just paying a regular mortgage payment a few hundred less than what rent for a 2 bedroom apartment is here now, and moving once, I have several hundred thousand in equity.

I'm sure it will all crash down, but, I do daydream about cashing in on the house, and the retirement accounts, and figuring out what my total liquidation (my "cash in a briefcase" number) would be if I just needed to hit the road or fly to Asia or something and never return.

[Lathum]

The market in our town is bonkers also. About an hour south of NYC, 5 minutes from the beach, both bus and train stations to NYC within a few minutes. Tons of people from NY looking to buy. The house next to my buddys had an Under contract sign before a For Sale sign.

[Ksyrup]

Is Zillow accurate? We've owned the same house for 15 years so I never really have a reason to check, but I just did and there's no way I'd pay that estimate to buy my house.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Is Zillow accurate? We've owned the same house for 15 years so I never really have a reason to check, but I just did and there's no way I'd pay that estimate to buy my house.

It seems to rely on neighborhood comps pretty heavily (which you can also track through Zillow), so I think it's generally pretty solid. But it's just a metric that has its weaknesses. It doesn't know about major improvements made to houses, and it seems to a bit slow to recognize some short-term local trends.

But you may be very surprised to see how much your house would sell for if you haven't paid attention to what's going on in your neighborhood with similar house.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Is Zillow accurate? We've owned the same house for 15 years so I never really have a reason to check, but I just did and there's no way I'd pay that estimate to buy my house.

It likely varies by area, but in our area it's running low on its estimates right now.

[Ksyrup]

Mine seems pretty high - about $100K more than I paid for it 15 years ago - but like I said, I've paid zero attention to property values except as it affects my taxes (and I'm still at the original sales price). And it doesn't even factor in that I just added a $50K covered deck!

Same issue we had as a young couple in Florida in the early 2000s though - it's all great to make a killing on your current house, but it pretty much evens out when you go to find something to move into. That was one of the big factors of us moving from Florida to Kentucky back then. We hit the top of the housing bubble perfectly when we left Florida and then got 3 times the house for another $100K (which we made off the Florida house) in Kentucky.

[thesloppy]

Here in Portland I hear that houses tend to get 40-50 offers in the first day at $50K over listing.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Atocep

It likely varies by area, but in our area it's running low on its estimates right now.

Mine, too. Based on list prices for smaller homes, I think we could get 100-150 more than our purchase price.