The Biden Presidency - 2020

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I think there is a good chance we will be in an official recession by next year, all the while we are not going to see prices drop.

Yes, I can see it worse in 2024. But like to think 2022 was the bottom ... we are (supposedly) at the end of the Fed tightening now. If we are in the depths of a recession during election year, Trump's odds increases significantly.

If we have a recession, better to have a recession this year so Biden will have some time to recover.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I think there is a good chance we will be in an official recession by next year, all the while we are not going to see prices drop.

Fed is going all out to make it happen.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Fed is going all out to make it happen.

That is really what it looks like to me. They have timed this out for the worst of everything to hit and exact time it will destroy Biden's chances.

[RainMaker]

I don't know if they're timing it to hurt Biden per say, I just think when wages started increasing for the common folk, they got terrified and had to shut that shit down.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't know if they're timing it to hurt Biden per say, I just think when wages started increasing for the common folk, they got terrified and had to shut that shit down.

In their case, I'm not saying it was a plot. Just how it has happened.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't know if they're timing it to hurt Biden per say, I just think when wages started increasing for the common folk, they got terrified and had to shut that shit down.

This is my belief as well. They know the GOP and Dems both will help siphon money from the poor to the rich. But the poors were starting to get some wage relief for the first time since the 90s so they had to nip that in the bud.



SI

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

That is really what it looks like to me. They have timed this out for the worst of everything to hit and exact time it will destroy Biden's chances.

I think you give the Fed too much credit here.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I think you give the Fed too much credit here.

I'm pretty sure the Fed is having a pretty hard affect on the economy right now.

[Brian Swartz]

I think we are 6-8 months out from when it begins to make sense to even *start* worrying about polls.

[Edward64]

Now this is the Grandpa Joe I expect. Nice heartwarming story, essentially Biden inviting WH reporters to attend personally relevant events.

West Wing Playbook - POLITICO

While it’s incredibly rare for a member of the White House press corps to receive such an exclusive invitation, it’s becoming far less so. In what longtime White House correspondents and historians say is a return to tradition, the Biden administration in recent months has started inviting those who cover them to attend smaller, more restrictive events.
:
The shift toward inviting more journalists to White House events in their personal capacity began ahead of St. Patrick’s Day this year, when members of the press shop were given the green light to submit a list of White House reporters with Irish heritage to the social office.

Another early arrival was SEUNG MIN KIM, who, on another night, might have been standing alongside her fellow reporters taking cell phone pics of arriving guests and shouting out questions. But on this night, the Associated Press White House reporter was in a floral ball gown, walking through a doorway festooned with the American and South Korean flags along with her mother, MI RYUNG CHANG.

Kim, who is Korean American, was invited to attend the state dinner honoring South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL in a personal capacity.

... several Asian American reporters were invited to attend Monday night’s screening of the film “American Born Chinese,” an event marking Asian American, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander Heritage Month.

Some Jewish members of the press corps have also been invited to a reception marking Jewish American Heritage month, which also is observed in May.

And when Biden hosted his first state dinner last December, in honor of French President EMMANUEL MACRON, the Washington Post’s OLIVIER KNOX (one of the Frenchiest members of the press corps) drew an invite,

[Edward64]

No surprise there wasn't any movement. Game of chicken continues on Fri.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/09/debt...mcconnell.html

Debt ceiling deal appears no closer after high-stakes meeting, but leaders will huddle again Friday

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said he did not see “any new movement” on negotiating positions during his White House meeting with President Joe Biden and congressional leaders.

Hoping this is still a Plan D to keep in the backpocket.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said he would reject any three-month debt ceiling proposals. The White House denied that Biden plans to put a short-term fix on the table.

[GrantDawg]

I think in the end there will be some kind of extension, because the last thing the GOP wants is for the White House to claim the 14th amendment means the cap is moot and they lose this threat every few months.

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[RainMaker]

Just incredibly cruel what they are doing to her.




[Edward64]

Another interesting option for the debt ceiling fight.

Former Biden adviser Tribe: Just use the 14th Amendment now - POLITICO

President Joe Biden made waves Tuesday when he acknowledged he was considering using the 14th Amendment to end the debt standoff — before saying he feared it would get caught up in courts.
:
The idea of using the 14th Amendment — which says the nation’s debts “shall not be questioned” — to continue making payments on spending approved by Congress has garnered increased interest as the nation tips closer to default.

His argument below seems logical to me but would be worried about unintended consequences. My guess is they'll try a Plan D ... prioritizing payments before doing the 14th amendment (but plan for it as a Plan E).

But if I was an impartial 3rd party observer, would love to see how this plays out in courts.

Tribe, in an interview, said that House Republicans — who have hinted they would challenge the president’s use of the 14th Amendment — can’t sue the president for not violating the Constitution. He anticipated the Supreme Court would reject such a case.

“Even bending their standing doctrine, I don’t know how they or how anyone could find somebody with standing to sue the president and the secretary of the Treasury for spending the money that Congress has said they’re supposed to spend,” Tribe said. “What would a court tell them not to spend the money on?”

[GrantDawg]

I didn't know where to put this, but it is an interesting case decision from the Supreme Court. Interesting in it one of the few that there were liberal and conservatives on both sides. Basically it allows California to set restrictions on what pork can be sold in the state, and it is a pretty clear indicator that the court is allowing states to set their own restrictions even if it affects other producer states. Mostly, just fascinated by the strange bedfellows on both sides.

The Supreme Court rejected a challenge to a California animal cruelty law that affects the pork industry, ruling that the case was properly dismissed by lower courts. https://t.co/bITqCS3qXC

— The Associated Press (@AP) May 11, 2023

[albionmoonlight]

Reports are that there is good progress on the behind the scenes negotiations concerning the debt ceiling. Remember, these are the negotiations that President Biden swore would never happen.

Now, he took that position when he expected the GOP to infight so much that it would not have a coherent plan. And he expected outside groups (business leaders, etc) to put pressure on the GOP. But that never materialized.

So I think he was smart to see that the game was playing out very differently than he had hoped and to change strategies. But (assuming that a deal is reached) it will be very interesting to see how the GOP plays this. Because they got what they wanted from him. But the thing that they want it from him was reasonable negotiations, so it is hard to criticize him for agreeing with you to be reasonable.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Just incredibly cruel what they are doing to her.

She's 89 and has served in the Senate for over 30 years. Barbara Boxer, who is "only" 82, was also elected to the Senate in 1992 (Feinstein's election in 1992 was a special election to finish Wilson's term), but retired in 2017, at age 76, after 25 years in the Senate, which is still way too old and way too long but is still a whole lot better than the ego trip Feinstein has been on (and RBG before her and Ted Kennedy before her, etc...).

It may be cruel, but hopefully it serves as a kick in the ass to some of those geriatrics to plan a reasonable succession timeline and stop fucking things up for their party because they're too fucking old.

The list of Senators 72 & over contains 6 Republicans, 16 Democrats, and both Independents.

[albionmoonlight]

Or what about the 95 year old federal judge whose court is seeking to remove her because of concerns about her ability--and she is suing them, arguing that only Congress can remove a judge via impeachment, and that any attempt to de facto remove her is thus unconstitutional:

Judge Newman Sues Fed. Circ. To Halt Probe Of Her Fitness - Law360 Pulse

FWIW, I think that she is right. I could easily see "fitness" being weaponized by partisan court to get around life tenure.

But, come on, you are 95 years old and have your salary for life. Just retire.

[Edward64]

What's in Lebanon that justifies the $1B embassy? I'd think maybe Jordan, at least they've shown they can be friendly to US interests.

I'm sure there's a reason, I hope its a really good one. Just seems we are a sitting duck whenever Syria wants to apply some pressure.

A massive new US embassy in a tiny Middle East nation is raising eyebrows | CNN

A massive new US embassy complex in Lebanon is causing controversy for its sheer size and opulence in a country where nearly 80% of the population is under the poverty line.

Located some 13 kilometers (about 8 miles) from the center of Beirut, the US’ new embassy compound in Lebanon looks like a city of its own.

Sprawling over a 43-acre site, the complex in the Beirut suburb of Awkar is almost two-and-a-half times the size of the land the White House sits on and more than 21 soccer fields.

Plans for the embassy complex were announced in 2015 and it is reported to have cost $1 billion.

Yeah, old enough to remember this one vividly.

Last month marked 40 years since the 1983 bombing of the American embassy in Beirut, which killed 63 people, including 52 Lebanese and embassy employees. In October that year, a bomb struck barracks in Beirut housing American and French peacekeepers, killing 299 people.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Edward64

What's in Lebanon that justifies the $1B embassy?

Well, maybe not in Lebanon, but all those construction and ancillary companies that bid on government contracts but mainly live below the poverty line need work so they can feed their kids.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

She's 89 and has served in the Senate for over 30 years. Barbara Boxer, who is "only" 82, was also elected to the Senate in 1992 (Feinstein's election in 1992 was a special election to finish Wilson's term), but retired in 2017, at age 76, after 25 years in the Senate, which is still way too old and way too long but is still a whole lot better than the ego trip Feinstein has been on (and RBG before her and Ted Kennedy before her, etc...).

It may be cruel, but hopefully it serves as a kick in the ass to some of those geriatrics to plan a reasonable succession timeline and stop fucking things up for their party because they're too fucking old.

The list of Senators 72 & over contains 6 Republicans, 16 Democrats, and both Independents.

I don't think this is on her. She has dementia and doesn't know what's going on. This isn't something that just sprung up either. Sure she shouldn't have run again, but I don't know if she even knew she was.

This is on her staff for continuing the Weekend and Bernie's act and other Democrats who haven't spoken up about her health. Like I said, it's just cruel to do this to someone with dementia.

[Flasch186]

She’s been diagnosed with dementia

Or

Is that just rhetoric?


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[RainMaker]

She was introducing herself to reporters as Mayor a few months ago. One of her staffers resigned and said that she is no longer mentally there and that her Chief of Staff is essentially acting as the Senator. There are videos of people bringing her in for votes, her being confused as to where she is, and them telling her what to vote.


I'm not knocking her in any way. This is just flat out elder abuse.

[flere-imsaho]

It's on her much the same was it was on RBG: retire before you become cripplingly old and lose your agency (and, in RBG's case, the legacy of everything you fought for).

She could have retired ~15 years ago at the age of ~74 after having served for ~15 years and would still have left a good legacy.

[PilotMan]

The Democrats are making the same mistake they did with Hillary if they think Biden is the right choice in '24. They have a great chance to change the narrative and routine if he walks away. There's no way whoever it loses the party momentum if the incumbent. It'll be seen as the right choice and the Republicans will scramble to deal with the change. They couldn't see the importance of 16 when it canev to the SC and they are missing the real life importance of what happens should they lose. They already know Congress is stacked against them and trump or someone like him will have 2 years minimum fee reign to burn at the speed similar to Florida. It'll set back causes and all the progress the left has spent 50 years fighting for, and it'll be fine in 2.

Where is our Zalensky?

Jon Stewart may be the best hope, but the old men politicians can't think that way. Strategically, they are fighting the battle they think they can win and they are missing the why they'll lose if they stick with tired tactics of another ancient white man.

[Brian Swartz]

I think it's totally different than Hillary. Hillary wasn't the incumbent president.

I agree that it's the right thing to pick someone else in a utopia, but politics is the art of the practical/possible, etc. Part of choosing Biden to run in 2020 was choosing him to run again in 2024 if he won and wanted to run again. They are the same decision, and you take the good with the bad on those things.

[albionmoonlight]

Biden does well with old white moderates in the Midwest.

And that's who you need to win elections right now.

[flere-imsaho]

As a follow-up to albion....

In 2020, the 10 closest states were:

1. Georgia
2. Arizona
3. Wisconsin
4. Pennsylvania
5. North Carolina
6. Nevada
7. Michigan
8. Florida
9. Texas
10. Minnesota

Show me a potential Democratic candidate with a better shot in most of those states than Biden. Serious proposal - I'm interested in seeing ideas.

[Edward64]

Too early to tell but I'm grasping for any good news, and Yellen's comment is somewhat positive.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hinted over the weekend that the U.S. would avoid a default.

“I’m hopeful. I think the negotiations are very active. I’m told they have found some areas of agreement,” said Yellen in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Saturday from Japan during a meeting of G-7 finance ministers.

[albionmoonlight]

This will be a huge test for McCarthy. It sounds like he and Biden will come to a deal. If McCarthy can get the MAGA caucus to agree to it, then he's a more powerful/better Speaker than we all assumed coming out of his clown show of an election.

As someone who does not want a global recession that will forever diminish the United States, I hope that (1) they come to a deal, and (2) the MAGAs go along with it.

Then we can lurch to the next crisis.

[Edward64]

Well, you are obviously wrong about a global recession.

Just a moment...

Trump told CNN moderator Kaitlan Collins at a town hall on Wednesday, "I say to the Republicans out there – congressmen, senators – if they don’t give you massive cuts, you’re going to have to do a default."

Trump said while he doesn't believe a default is going to happen, "it’s better than what we’re doing right now because we’re spending money like drunken sailors."

He also suggested that the effects of a default may not be as calamitous as economists have warned, musing that "it’s really psychological more than anything else" and "maybe it’s, you have a bad week or a bad day."

It's good there hasn't been a upswell of support for Trump's position. Article has some GOP publicly disagreeing.

So yeah, if it was between DeSantis or Trump, I'd take DeSantis any day. Much less dangerous to the country (and world).

[Edward64]

Another headache for Joe.

I'm sure additional funding will get approved (not all GOP are against it) but Joe may have to compromise on something.

The end of Ukraine aid is rapidly approaching. Reupping it won’t be easy - POLITICO

Move over, Treasury. You’re not the only one with an X-date.

The $48 billion Ukraine aid package that Congress approved in December has about $6 billion left, meaning U.S. funding for weapons and supplies could dry up by midsummer.

[RainMaker]

At this point, I'm fine with a default. Seems silly to go through this song and dance ever year and maybe the fuck around crowd should find out what happens.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

At this point, I'm fine with a default. Seems silly to go through this song and dance ever year and maybe the fuck around crowd should find out what happens.

It's one of the dumbest parts of our government. Congress can pass bills to spend money, and the president is constitutionally required to make sure that money is spent correctly, but we have an arbitrary debt ceiling that prevents him from doing his constitutional duty unless congress agrees to let him spend the money they allocated.

Either the 14th ammendment or the duties of the presidency should make a debt ceiling unnecessary.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

So yeah, if it was between DeSantis or Trump, I'd take DeSantis any day. Much less dangerous to the country (and world).

Eh....
some of the stuff DeSantis is doing n Florida would destroy us as a nation. Trump is an idiot, but I'm not sure the ling term damage would be as bad a what DeSantis would do.

I think it is safe to say we really can't afford as a nation for either of them to win.

[Ksyrup]

They are both dangerous. Trump would turn the entire government into a Trump state. DeSantis would do a lot of damage in a more or less "within norms" way (using the legislature and executive branches kinda like he's done in Florida). They are both bad but DeSantis actually worries me more because, outside of court challenges to the constitutionality of any of it, it will be done within the system.

[JPhillips]

RFK Jr. is so desperate to be Trump's "unity" running mate. Dems aren't looking for a candidate that endlessly praises Trump.

[RainMaker]

I was wrong. Feinstein didn't miss any time at all according to her.

Dianne Feinstein's health: The senator seems not to remember being absent from the Capitol.

By the way, I'm not knocking her at all. This is flat-out elder abuse and everyone carrying on this charade should be ashamed of themselves.

[Edward64]

Thank you Turbo Tax (and like) for paving the way, but think it's a no-brainer for the IRS to do this.

I chatted with someone from Australia that said his tax information was preloaded into the tax system for him. So all he had to do was review and maybe do some exceptions to complete his taxes. This is where we should be, everything from employers, banks, investments etc. pre-loaded.

It won't get everything but 80-20 is good enough.

The IRS is working on software to allow taxpayers to file online : NPR

The IRS is developing a system that would let taxpayers send electronic returns directly to the government for free, sidestepping commercial options such as TurboTax.

The agency plans a pilot test of the program next year.

Many other countries already offer taxpayers a government-run filing system. But the IRS plan is likely to face stiff opposition from the $14 billion tax-preparation industry.

Americans already spend significant time and money preparing their taxes. The average individual filer pays $140 per year, according to the IRS.

While an alliance of industry players offers a free-filing option through the IRS website, only about 2% of taxpayers use it.

"That's because the tax prep companies sabotaged the program, so they could keep raking in money," Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., said last month.

Last year, TurboTax paid $141 million to settle a complaint that it advertised free tax preparation, then steered customers into costly upgrades. The company did not admit to any wrongdoing.

[Lathum]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CsTn5...c4MTIwNjQ2YQ==


VERY NSFW

[Flasch186]

Surely the republicans would be against making it easier to take care of taxes considering they’d like to completely make it harder to impossible to pay your taxes… let alone those you couldn’t avoid.


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[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Thank you Turbo Tax (and like) for paving the way, but think it's a no-brainer for the IRS to do this.

TurboTax has been actively trying to demolish that road & lobbying to keep taxes complicated, since the last millennium fwiw.

Inside TurboTax’s 20-Year Fight to Stop Americans From Filing Their Taxes for Free — ProPublica

[JPhillips]

The GOP saw Covid and decided they are anti-vax now.

This is astonishing. Between 2019 and 2023, the % of Republicans who said parents should be able to put their kids in public school without the MMR vaccine (even if it creates health risks for others), more than doubled, from 20% to 42%.https://t.co/LFxoEvzCHj pic.twitter.com/DVKunxrrRo

— Samuel Perry (@profsamperry) May 16, 2023

[cuervo72]

but God made measles for a reason

(bring on polio! their kids won't ever get it only commies like FDR)

[Edward64]

I'm impressed we've gotten to a (initial) kumbaya moment with 2 weeks before Jun 1. Good sign there's not heated rhetoric right now between Joe & McCarthy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/17/debt...-progress.html

Top leaders from both sides of the aisle reassured Americans Wednesday that the U.S. won’t default on its debt as tense negotiations over the debt ceiling continued.

“I think at the end of the day we do not have a debt default,” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told CNBC in a “Squawk Box” interview Wednesday morning.

President Joe Biden echoed that sentiment later in remarks from the White House: “We’re going to come together because these is no alternative,” he said. “Every leader in the room understands the consequences of failure.”

The House speaker’s and the president’s remarks were the latest signs that negotiations, which had been stalled for months, were now moving into a more serious and concrete phase, and potentially closer to a deal.

[albionmoonlight]

I would hate doing negotiations for a living.

Going in, everyone knows that there will end up being a deal that falls within a pretty narrow band of possibilities. You may know that months ahead of time.

But, under game theory, it makes no sense for either side to start to move toward that deal until there is real deadline pressure.

So you end up with tense last-minute negotiations to end up where you knew you were going to end up a month ago.

It would annoy my sense of efficiency.

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

That said, in this case, I do think that the delay had some effect--the GOP House was able to pass a bill, the GOP senators stood behind the House, and the public didn't buy the "GOP must pass a clean bill" take--none of which were known at the beginning of the process.

Basically, McCarthy has been getting a run of pretty good breaks here. It will be fascinating to see if his MAGA rump ends up fucking this up for him.

To get Biden from "We won't negotiate, period." to "We are open to some SNAP work requirements" without the Senate and with a narrow House majority is a legislative butt kicking.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Atocep

It's one of the dumbest parts of our government. Congress can pass bills to spend money, and the president is constitutionally required to make sure that money is spent correctly, but we have an arbitrary debt ceiling that prevents him from doing his constitutional duty unless congress agrees to let him spend the money they allocated.

Either the 14th ammendment or the duties of the presidency should make a debt ceiling unnecessary.

Agree completely, except for the 14th amendment part.

I can't get on board with 'just default and let them learn what it means' because that's not what will actually happen. People will blame those not on their political team for the consequences, not their own actions.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Agree completely, except for the 14th amendment part.

I can't get on board with 'just default and let them learn what it means' because that's not what will actually happen. People will blame those not on their political team for the consequences, not their own actions.

I'm not saying default, I'm saying the 14th ammendment states we cannot default on our debts so the debt ceiling isn't necessary and is actually unconstitutional itself. Between the 14th ammendment and the constitutional requirements of the presidency it doesn't make sense that we fight this battle at all.

[Atocep]

Dola

The right is arguing that the 14th ammendment is outdated and doesn't apply to today's debts while at the same time arguing that the 2nd ammendment applies today the same way it did in the 1700s. I'm sure the Supreme Court would see it the same way with no fucks given to the hypocrisy.