Werewolf LXIII - Fall of the Elementals (Game Over - Avatars Win!)

[Coffee Warlord]

My bad, missed that last vote by Schmidty.

Current tally is Clap 5, Mr W 4.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, I've had some other thoughts on who it was as well.

From what I can tell, the only downside to an Elemental announcing it today would be that they would indicate that they don't have a night action tonight.

[path12]

Quietest deadline yet.

[Mr. Wednesday]

That doesn't strike me as much of a downside.

I don't think there's enough time to orchestrate a switch.

[Mr. Wednesday]

@path12
hoops is on me, I think you're on me, I'm on claphamsa, I don't see the momentum for anything interesting to happen.

[hoopsguy]

For what it is worth, I'm intrigued that we haven't really pursued the whole "learn something from previous vote" strategy this game.

Day 1 - three way action with me, Pass, and SnDvls
Day 2 - Cronin, Swaggs, and SnDvls
Day 3 - MrW and Clap

I know that Day 1 was three Elementals, but most people probably can't be sure. Today we didn't really seem to consider Cronin or Swaggs.

We don't have much to show for voting records at this point if we whiff today.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

@path12
hoops is on me, I think you're on me, I'm on claphamsa, I don't see the momentum for anything interesting to happen.

If you felt like there was time to orchestrate a switch, would you want to? Where would you go if you felt people would follow?

[claphamsa]

peace out all!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Well, I didn't go after cronin because there was some sentiment in his favor from Lathum, and I don't trust my vibes with cronin because it seems like I always get a bad vibe from him.

[claphamsa]

ill follow anywhere

[hoopsguy]

Let's see what the Trout has to say for himself. I'm hoping for a good result, but not really expecting one.

[Coffee Warlord]

Ding.

[claphamsa]

:'(

dying sucks!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If you felt like there was time to orchestrate a switch, would you want to? Where would you go if you felt people would follow?

I don't know that I would have wanted to. I tend to be too ready to change my mind about who to vote for. And, I don't think there would have been any momentum for it. Too many people who had more or less settled on their vote, not enough actually in the thread at the end.

[Coffee Warlord]

The Trout is expecting you as you reach the sacred altar. Unlike his companions, he, in his fishy goodness, speaks. His voice is terrible and beautiful at the same time.

"A shame you did not select the Trout option, but cosmic rules are cosmic rules."

With that, the fish grows to Colossal proportions, summoning claphamsa to the altar. But he is not going to go quietly. Seconds before he is to be consumed by the Holy Trout, he shrieks, "I am the Avatar of Fear! I shall haunt your dreams for all eternity! None can oppose the Ava....."*chomp.*

Trout don't have a lot of patience for speeches.

Clap was the Avatar of Fear.

Trout 1, Squid 1, Yak 1, Elementals 1!

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If you felt like there was time to orchestrate a switch, would you want to? Where would you go if you felt people would follow?

I was OK either way. No reason to switch.

[path12]

How 'bout that?

[hoopsguy]

That was exactly the shot in the arm we needed. Nice job by all the Clap voters, especially Schmidty who came in to bust the tie late.

[Coffee Warlord]

Weekend schedule, if people approve.

We're looking pretty good, schedule wise, so I'll run night tonight, deadline around, say...noon tomorrow. From then, we'll let Day 4 run from noon tomorrow to 9pm SUNDAY night. That should give everyone time to get their 2 cents in.

Cool?

[Mr. Wednesday]

W00t!

[hoopsguy]

Now why did Clap cook up that story about his scan failing?

OK, he posted a lot so there should be some stuff to find over the weekend.

[hoopsguy]

Is it worth posting thoughts on trust and the like now, or would people prefer to have that conversation at the start of Day 4 instead?

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Now why did Clap cook up that story about his scan failing?

OK, he posted a lot so there should be some stuff to find over the weekend.

Yeah, it's gonna be post recap time.

[hoopsguy]

BTW, schedule is cool with me.

[Mr. Wednesday]

OK, the odd move that claphamsa did the other day was not vote for SnDvls and instead vote for st.cronin. Can we read anything into that? Do we suppose that cronin is an avatar and clap knew that a vote for cronin would not carry?

(I think a reasonable possibility is that as often seems to be the case, we voted for the right guy for the wrong reason, which would have been driving clap nuts if he's anything like me.)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Schedule works.

[claphamsa]

damnit hoops you were supposed to help me!

{x} go AVS!

[Mr. Wednesday]

How's hoops supposed to help you when he's already voting for me?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

OK, the odd move that claphamsa did the other day was not vote for SnDvls and instead vote for st.cronin. Can we read anything into that? Do we suppose that cronin is an avatar and clap knew that a vote for cronin would not carry?

(I think a reasonable possibility is that as often seems to be the case, we voted for the right guy for the wrong reason, which would have been driving clap nuts if he's anything like me.)

I tend to think that would mean that maybe it was an elemental/elemental choice.

[path12]

BTW, no problem with the schedule here either.

[hoopsguy]

Clap, what more do you want than me voting for the other guy? Sheesh.

I felt like we had a better twosome for this vote than I did yesterday based on the lack of verifiable actions by/against the people on the block. I'm glad it worked out, even if I was on the wrong side of the tally at the end of the day.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by path12

I tend to think that would mean that maybe it was an elemental/elemental choice.

I'm not saying I disagree with this, but what's your thinking on that? How do you see clap's vote to cronin (pushing toward a tie or one-vote lead ahead of himself) instead of SnDvls indicating that cronin is elemental?

(I don't think this is necessary a bad conclusion, and I have my own ideas about how to reason it, I just want to see yours.)

[Mr. Wednesday]

I think we might have just rescued the game, depending on how many elementals there were to start.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Er, never mind, there are more people left than I thought. :o

It would have been touchy tomorrow, though.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Er, never mind, there are more people left than I thought. :o

It would have been touchy tomorrow, though.

Might also depend on if there are any more 3rd parties out there like Saldana and how they factor in end-game. I haven't spent a lot of time looking at those scenarios yet because I figured even with a bad vote today we still would see Day 4.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I'm not saying I disagree with this, but what's your thinking on that? How do you see clap's vote to cronin (pushing toward a tie or one-vote lead ahead of himself) instead of SnDvls indicating that cronin is elemental?

(I don't think this is necessary a bad conclusion, and I have my own ideas about how to reason it, I just want to see yours.)

OK, I didn't go back and see the vote count and that it was a three-person race, I was just going by what you said about voting cronin instead of the now-known elemental SnDvls.

[Schmidty]

Glad to see that that worked out.

[hoopsguy]

Swaggs, I'm hoping that you can let us know (either tonight or tomorrow after deadline) if it was you that lowered the boom on Saldana earlier today.

[Swaggs]

I'm caught up... looks like I missed quite a bit.

Good job nailing Clap. I'm not sure who I would have gone with between the two of them (MrW and Clap), so probably good that it worked out the way it did.

[Swaggs]

Hoops, any thoughts on whether there are/were more than one human?

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm not hoops, but I would imagine that the human would be one of the lone "you win if you survive" types, possibly a sorceror "plays like an elemental but wins with the avatars" type. Which is to say, I wouldn't expect there to be more than one.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Hoops, any thoughts on whether there are/were more than one human?

I haven't yet sifted through the posts of Saldana (or Clap) but my gut is that he was acting alone.

However, *here comes big-time speculation* knowing Coffee Warlord, it would not surprise me if there is another personal with an individual victory condition. Potentially another solo player?

We started with 15 players. I would think something like 10-3-1-1 could be the ratio, as long as the 1-1 don't both count against the Elementals.

My victory conditions don't give me any reason to think this is the case, as they are pretty straight-forward. This is more me thinking out loud about what I would expect from CW after a review of the rules set.

[hoopsguy]

That said, I don't see any edge to be gained at the moment speculating on what CW might, or might not, include in the game as far as mystery factions. If you have an angle that you are pushing here I'm probably not seeing it.

[hoopsguy]

Dola - I know you asked earlier in the game about 3rd factions and didn't get much response. Since you are returning to this topic, I'm guessing you have some kind of info in your PM that talks about this?

I wonder if that first comment on a third faction is what set Saldana on you?

[Swaggs]

I am more asking because I was thinking about the number of Elementals vs Avatars vs Humans. I had originally assumed that there were 3-4 Avatars, but now I'm thinking there were 2-3, with some other folks (possibly 2 humans?) mixed in to mess with us.

I'm guessing my comment did lead Sal to scrutinize me, which was unfortunate for him, because it lead me to look at him a little closer, as well.

I am a little hesitant to overplay things just yet, but hopefully my moves and posts have been pretty transparant. We had a pretty good day today.

[Lathum]

I know it was mentioned earlier but I am wondering if part of Saldanas win condition was to kill swaggs.

He went after him pretty hard, and that is very unlike Saldana early on, he usualy sits back the first few days and takes everything in before going after someone the way he did Swaggs.

[Coffee Warlord]

A wild night, as all of you feel the power of a wide range of forces at work. People were definately up to quite a variety of things.

As you commence the day's activities, you come across the lifeless hulk of Schmidty, his body mauled by some wild beast, his brain literally removed from his body. Ethereal goo is covering his very dead body, which beings its slow retreat into nothingness. Another Elemental has fallen.

A louch belch is heard from behind you, and the drunk of the Elementals states, hey, I thought it was supposed to be the Sign of the Squid today!. It is however, not. The Sign of the Rhino is overhead.

[Lathum]

hmmm.

OK, it couldn't have been swaggs who killed schmidty, I used my ability to stop Swaggs from using his ability. I was succesfull.

[Swaggs]

Anyone want to fess up to casting a spell on me last night?

Unless it was Schmidty, that person should be, at least, cleared of the murder.

[Swaggs]

Heh... scratch that previous post.