02-19-2008, 03:06 PM | #751 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Geez, if the Teacher's pet doesn't know their role, than I think we have been making a mistake being so forthcoming with our scans.
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02-19-2008, 03:07 PM | #752 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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02-19-2008, 03:07 PM | #753 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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02-19-2008, 03:08 PM | #754 | |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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Quote:
I don't think anyone has scanned me yet, but I'm a student so there really isn't any reason to |
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02-19-2008, 03:09 PM | #755 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
Well with Path clarifying that neither the Teacher's Pet nor the Class Clown know their true roles I'm more inclined to vote no lynch so we don't eliminate a very useful role at this point. I think we should try and at least get one more day of data points either as a group or as individuals IMO |
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02-19-2008, 03:09 PM | #756 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Seattle, WA
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Current vote total as of post #747:
nfg22 2 -- Pumpy Tudors(598), Bsak16(628) No Lynch 2 -- mauboy1(733), The Jackal(736) Lathum 1 -- Dodgerchick(601) Chief Rum 1 -- Passacaglia(636) RendeR 1 -- st.cronin(707) Dodgerchick 1 -- Lathum(725) Passacaglia 1 -- ntndeacon(738) No vote: claphamsa, Barkeep49, RendeR, Chief Rum, saldana, SnDvls, nfg22, MikeVic, oliegirl, Mr. Wednesday, jeheinz72
__________________
We have always been at war with Eastasia. |
02-19-2008, 03:10 PM | #757 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Hometown of Canada
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I don't know if I'll be on here much before the first deadline, but I'll try to check in to see if I should change my vote. Right now I'll be voting for NFG because he tickles me incorrectly. I will also send in a scan for Lathum for my curiosity. I will be back before the second deadline, so that can change.
VOTE NFG |
02-19-2008, 03:10 PM | #758 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Quote:
If everybody has been honest with their scans, then we've been drawing a road map to the teacher's pet for the wolves (since they know which scans are accurate, and which aren't). |
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02-19-2008, 03:10 PM | #759 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
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02-19-2008, 03:11 PM | #760 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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02-19-2008, 03:13 PM | #761 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Only if we keep no-lynching. |
02-19-2008, 03:14 PM | #762 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Vote No Lynch
Unless a very compelling argument beyond what has been discussed today comes up there is where my vote will stay. IMO, we can get away with one more day of scans and data points and still be okay in this game. |
02-19-2008, 03:20 PM | #763 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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See this is why I hate no lynching on Day 1. Because then on Day 2, people STILL think it's a good idea. And if you follow the D1 argument's they're right. But sooner, rather than later, we need to break out of passive mode and start lynching people.
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02-19-2008, 03:20 PM | #764 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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I'm against no lynching. We need data points, IMO, like someone (olie? BK?) said. She's acted strange in a lot of instance, don't know if it was frustration or what, but I'm willing to take that chance.
Vote Dodgerchick With that said, I'm going to make my own scan-sheet (since I can't follow other peoples' very well). |
02-19-2008, 03:21 PM | #765 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
So, ya gonna vote then? |
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02-19-2008, 03:23 PM | #766 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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I still see some merit to the no lynch in this particular game, but I think if the majority of people think it's better to vote then someone is going to get lynched today. There are three of us on no lynch right now, and I don't think anyone else has expressed a strong desire to do so.
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02-19-2008, 03:27 PM | #767 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Yes I am. Just trying were best to place my vote.
At the moment I'm leaning towards Lathum. A whole bunch of people learn about the accuracy, or inaccuracy of their scan (including me, as I'm quite curious about that). Further, his willingness to think that I'm good based on the scans on me is troubling to me. It isn't any more natural for the scans to all be correct (as they are) or in correct (which they're not). Yet he thinks they're correct. A wolf would know this. Generally speaking when I'm a wolf I like to say nice things about others since it engenders some goodwill towards me. So since Lathum said something nice about me, seemingly without good cause, I'm now more suspicious of him. I'm also weary of cronin, who seems to think we should hiding our info. I don't like SnDvls, who has played in enough games on FOFC to know better, voting No Lynch Day 2. I think NFG's whole game has been to draw attention to himself, though to what ends I'm not sure and he seems to have toned this down today. |
02-19-2008, 03:28 PM | #768 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
What are the scans on you BK? 4 "students"? |
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02-19-2008, 03:28 PM | #769 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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I think we shuld all keep scanning and posting our scanns. and eventually we wil be able to tell somethign from it!
vote nfg33 i might change it later...
__________________
Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!! |
02-19-2008, 03:28 PM | #770 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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3-2 nfg over DC now, with no lynch also at 3. Still plenty of time to deadline. Thinking about this, I'd rather vote for somebody like Lathum or BK or Pass than either of those two, as it will help neutralize the wolves advantage in finding the teacher's pet. I'll go with Pass, since he was pinging my radar yesterday. This will give Pass 2 votes, making it nfg and no lynch 3 apiece, and DC and Pass 2 each.
UNVOTE RENDER VOTE PASSACAGLIA |
02-19-2008, 03:29 PM | #771 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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02-19-2008, 03:30 PM | #772 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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02-19-2008, 03:31 PM | #773 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
Cronin are you REALLY suggesting we should just keep our info to ourselves and if we die take it down with us? You really don't think that through multiple scans we can gather an accurate aggregate picture of not only how accurate individuals are, but also which sides players are on? |
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02-19-2008, 03:32 PM | #774 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
While I'd say your right, I guess the way I'd look at that is that you're much much LESS likely to be a wolf than our other people. I mean let's say we're all, on average, a 1/3rd correct Seer. So 2/3rds of the time we're wrong. With 4 scans of a 1/3rd seer, it's less than 20% chance you're a bad guy. Sure, if I was voting for good-guys maybe that isn't enough, but I look at it right now as you'd be in the pile of "People I don't need to worry a ton about" KnowwhatI'msayin'? |
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02-19-2008, 03:32 PM | #775 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: non white trash MD
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color blind.....
__________________
Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!! |
02-19-2008, 03:34 PM | #776 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Quote:
The problem is that the wolves already have the correct information - so they will simply target the more accurate scanners each night, before we know who they are. Am I wrong about that? And if I'm not wrong, how do we counter that? |
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02-19-2008, 03:35 PM | #777 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
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02-19-2008, 03:36 PM | #778 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
Actually I was assuming even less than that, 33% accuracy (to play it safe with the numbers) |
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02-19-2008, 03:38 PM | #779 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
You've stated the advantage that the wolves gain. I get it. What's the advantage to the villagers by staying quiet? I think going public has its clear advantages and we shouldn't not do something just because it helps the other side. We should do what makes the most sense for the villagers. And in this game, like nearly all others, that means sharing info. I hate to have to get on that high horse again, and was quite thankful when it seemed like people had finally seen the common sense of that in this game at least. |
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02-19-2008, 03:40 PM | #780 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Why assume 1/3 accuracy? It's a bad assumption. But rolling with that 1/3 accuracy rate, assumption they're all going to get me wrong 1/5, if I were a wolf. That's not an insignificant error rate.
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02-19-2008, 03:41 PM | #781 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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The advantage the village has to staying quiet: potentially the teacher's pet and class clown live an extra day or more. Hypothetically, if we lose one tonight and one tomorrow night, we are pretty much fucked. Am I wrong?
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02-19-2008, 03:42 PM | #782 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
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Ok, I'm out, if I'm back befofre the deadline I'll certainly re-join the conversation.
And by the way, I noticed someone asked who hadn't been scanned earlier, and I don't think anyone has scanned me yet - so feel free. |
02-19-2008, 03:42 PM | #783 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
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Quote:
I'm just saying it's not to be scoffed at. 80% chance of a villager looks pretty good when I'm a big "?" on a LOT of people. |
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02-19-2008, 03:44 PM | #784 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Yes you are. So we lose one today and one tomorrow. I don't see how we lose them both so quickly, as that would have to be some really bad luck, but alright I'll go with it. The average scan accuracy is 52.2%. CR did the distribution chart yesterday and the odds are that we have at least 1 or 2 other well above average players for both accuracy and inaccuracy. Sure it's not perfect, but don't let perfection stand in the way of good enough.
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02-19-2008, 03:45 PM | #785 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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02-19-2008, 03:45 PM | #786 |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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You guys are hysterical! I was really upset earlier but now it's laughable, it truly is. So the reason why I'm suspicious is because I was "defending" nfg? Puhleez. THINK ABOUT IT: 1 person says I'm a wolf.. 1 person! This same person came out as a wolf scan by 3 people. Lynching me will give you shit for information other than I'm a student. Lynching Lathum will at least give us a little information on how this scan thing works.
I guess since no one is following me on Lathum, I'm going with nfg.. self perservation, obviously. unvote lathum vote nfg |
02-19-2008, 03:46 PM | #787 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Mar 2004
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Since I am most likely going dow at this point, I have one request kill Lathum tommorow when I come up clean. As of now I know I am clean. Lathum is getting the masses behind me over two words I said. Whatever, tommorow you will see.
Vote Lathum |
02-19-2008, 03:47 PM | #788 |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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02-19-2008, 03:47 PM | #789 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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DC, would you rather vote for Lathum? I know I'd rather vote for Lathum than any of the others out there and so I would join you in voting for him if it made you feel better.
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02-19-2008, 03:48 PM | #790 |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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02-19-2008, 03:48 PM | #791 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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With nfg's vote (and hopefully DC going back) I'm ready to go onto Lathum for reasons previously stated (gain lots of info, suspicious of his trust in me).
Vote Lathum |
02-19-2008, 03:49 PM | #792 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Quote:
My point is if we lose the Teacher's pet four days from now, we get four days of posts and information to go over - even if he hasn't published his scans. I agree its a difficult spot for the village to be in, but I think the "release all information" is a wolf-helping strategy, not a village-helping strategy. Which has me looking at you quizzically. |
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02-19-2008, 03:49 PM | #793 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Mar 2004
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OK. Seriously. I have one scan on me, and from an unreliable source none the less. Lathum has 3 scans saying wolf, which looks good to me. He then convinces all of you, somehow that I am a wolf, so we all jump on that bandwagon. Can someone please layout why I am a wolf?
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02-19-2008, 03:51 PM | #794 | |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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Quote:
If you wanna vote for Lathum, by all means, go ahead. The only reason why I moved off of him and onto nfg was to save my ass. |
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02-19-2008, 03:52 PM | #795 | |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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Quote:
cuz you said, "even though".. how's that for proof!! |
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02-19-2008, 03:52 PM | #796 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
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02-19-2008, 03:53 PM | #797 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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If you vote Lathum, he'll have 3 votes on him. NFG has 4. You have 1. Hell no lynch has 3 votes at the moment, which is ahead of you. I don't think you're in danger. Instead you should join us in putting the man who slandered you in danger
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02-19-2008, 03:54 PM | #798 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: South Bend, IN
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Quote:
That having been said, one way to address that deficiency is to start lynching people. Otherwise, we're relying on the wolves, and they're going to have a 100% villager hit rate.
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Hattrick - Brays Bayou FC (70854) / USA III.4 Hockey Arena - Houston Aeros / USA II.1 Thanks to my FOFC Hattrick supporters - Blackout, Brillig, kingfc22, RPI-fan, Rich1033, antbacker, One_to7, ur_land, KevinNU7, and TonyR (PM me if you support me and I've missed you) |
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02-19-2008, 03:55 PM | #799 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: New Mexico
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Quote:
I'd like to hear from one of the statisticians on board. What are the odds, given that the wolves know who the wolves are, that they could get to the teacher's pet tonight? My instinct says its quite high ... but I guess I don't know, and I don't know how to do the math. |
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02-19-2008, 03:55 PM | #800 | |
Unregistered
Join Date: May 2004
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Quote:
yeah sure unvote nfg vote lathum |
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