The Stock Market thread

[BishopMVP]

It will almost certainly be a let down, but I'm just happy to live in an America where "Roaring Kitty" a.k.a. "DeepFuckingValue" is going to be testifying in front of Congress alongside CEO's of multi billion dollar corporations. If he shows up in the red bandana & says "I just like the stock." it's a victory.

(And he can while skirting legal accusations because he's banked $13m+, but also held on all his other stock that was worth up to $50m then. Legally it's a perfect defense even though he got a bag for his family's future - he never sold a single thing he didn't have to, how is that a pump & dump?)

[lungs]

I thought I was really taking a haircut this week but today has put me back in the green. Bitcoin crossing the $50k barrier has helped via NXTD. I’m currently up 667% on that stock.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Markets indices have been placid (?) this week. Up-down-up-down, seemingly no direction.

Same this week.

Taking a breather from last week and maybe just waiting for the impeachment to be over and stimulus talk to start again.

I guess I was wrong since the markets didn't do much. Maybe it's the freeze in Texas and worry about oil prices.

BMBL (Bumble) shot up today, I bought a little for my fun portfolio. I've done well with my "what the hell" picks with SPCE and GBTC so far. I can see BMBL having "legs" (no pun intended).

Lost all my Bumble gains. But GBTC had a good week.

There's always next week.

[wustin]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

It will almost certainly be a let down, but I'm just happy to live in an America where "Roaring Kitty" a.k.a. "DeepFuckingValue" is going to be testifying in front of Congress alongside CEO's of multi billion dollar corporations. If he shows up in the red bandana & says "I just like the stock." it's a victory.

(And he can while skirting legal accusations because he's banked $13m+, but also held on all his other stock that was worth up to $50m then. Legally it's a perfect defense even though he got a bag for his family's future - he never sold a single thing he didn't have to, how is that a pump & dump?)

He was questioned by a congressman in the hearing saying he wouldn't buy GME at current price. He said he liked the stock and doubled down his position buying more at $45 lol.

[Lathum]

Litecoin riding Bitcoins tail. Bought it at $175 a couple weeks ago and it is hovering around $235 now.

I've also noticed Dogecoin seems to peak on the weekends. I think people get bored when the market closes so they buy crypto for the weekend action. I bought some early Friday and it has already gone up somewhat.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

It will almost certainly be a let down, but I'm just happy to live in an America where "Roaring Kitty" a.k.a. "DeepFuckingValue" is going to be testifying in front of Congress alongside CEO's of multi billion dollar corporations. If he shows up in the red bandana & says "I just like the stock." it's a victory.

(And he can while skirting legal accusations because he's banked $13m+, but also held on all his other stock that was worth up to $50m then. Legally it's a perfect defense even though he got a bag for his family's future - he never sold a single thing he didn't have to, how is that a pump & dump?)

Originally Posted by wustin

He was questioned by a congressman in the hearing saying he wouldn't buy GME at current price. He said he liked the stock and doubled down his position buying more at $45 lol.

And had his red bandana and a cat poster in the background. That's not a home run appearance but definitely a double. I can't wait until our kids have to learn about a guy known as "DeepFuckingValue" in economics textbooks.

SI

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

And had his red bandana and a cat poster in the background. That's not a home run appearance but definitely a double. I can't wait until our kids have to learn about a guy known as "DeepFuckingValue" in economics textbooks.

SI

He also stated: "A few things I am not: I am not a cat." as well as saying "I like the stock". I thought he was great.

[Edward64]

It wasn't clear to me if Musk made the Bitcoin investment or if Tesla the company made the investment. It looks as if it's the latter. Great move, not sure if it was smart, but looks it was the right thing to do.

Tesla bitcoin gambit already made $1 billion, more than 2020 profit from car sales, estimates analyst - MarketWatch

However, early estimates from prominent technology analyst Dan Ives sees the investment by the electric-vehicle maker, headed by outspoken Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, already minting a digital paper profit of at least $1 billion, as the price of the asset soars to records.

“Based on our calculations, we estimate that Tesla so far has made roughly $1 billion of profit over the last month…To put this in perspective, Tesla is on a trajectory to make more from its Bitcoin investments than profits from selling its [electric vehicle] cars in all of 2020,” wrote Wedbush’s prolific analyst Dan Ives, in a note published on Saturday afternoon.

[Edward64]

Tough day for tech stocks.

[Edward64]

Nasdaq is approx -7% off its high. This morning's futures down -188 or -1.44% today. So not quite in correction territory but getting there.

TSLA is the biggest % in most of ARK funds and I've been building up a position in ARKK so the past 2 weeks has hurt a little. Have to keep on repeating my mantra about "think long-term".

Leading techs lower in premarket is electric-car maker Tesla TSLA, -8.55%, down 6% after a roughly 8% drop on Monday. Our call of the day comes from Saxo Bank’s head of equity strategy, Peter Garnry, who has been warning clients that Tesla is tangled up in a “risk cluster” that involves bitcoin and Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment Management firm.

Tesla announced a $1.5 billion bitcoin investment earlier this month. Along with Tesla weakness, bitcoin was down 10% early Tuesday, which some attributed to criticism from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (see below). That crypto drop will “obviously illustrate the earnings volatility that Elon Musk has delivered to Tesla,” said Garnry.

[GrantDawg]

Bitcoin is being taken to the woodshed, along with other crypto-currancies. It is almost seems like the second a ground swell of buying on something gets drummed up, it suddenly crashes.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Bitcoin is being taken to the woodshed, along with other crypto-currancies. It is almost seem like the second a ground swell of buying on something gets drummed up, it suddenly crashes.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

My litecoin has gone from $240 to $170.

[sabotai]

Sorry guys. I finally put money in crypto. That's why it's crashing. It's my fault. Sorry.

(Only a few hundred of my "gambling-slash-ready-to-lose-it-all" money so no biggie for me thankfully)

[jbergey22]

It was time for a correction(bitcoin). It will be back and on its way to 100k shortly.

Elon wanted to drop the price a bit before putting another 2.5 billion in it.

Another round of stimulus coming and tax returns. Id say bitcoin is safe until May 1st.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Sorry guys. I finally put money in crypto. That's why it's crashing. It's my fault. Sorry.

Frakker.

At least give us a heads up next time.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

It was time for a correction(bitcoin). It will be back and on its way to 100k shortly.

I agree. There is mainstream adoption going on and is a good bet for long term.

The other digital currencies are still up in the air.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Bitcoin is being taken to the woodshed, along with other crypto-currancies. It is almost seems like the second a ground swell of buying on something gets drummed up, it suddenly crashes.

I can understand Bitcoin and Tesla (and yeah, I can understand my BMBL).

But Apple is down about -15% from high in the past 2-3 weeks. There's not been any bad news that I recall so maybe just overall tech malaise.

[SackAttack]

Probably just some profit-taking. Folks locking in gains before going back for another round.

[albionmoonlight]

If folks letting some air out of the bubble keeps it from popping, I'm all for it.

[Hammer]

Amuses me that the people I speak to about Bitcoin in the real world are either convinced it is going to the moon or convinced it will all end in tears. Maybe those with both feet in want to talk others in to it, to increase their own gain. Those not in are jealous of the money made by those that have invested, perhaps. I still haven't got a clue what to think, and I don't see that changing any time soon. For every Elon Musk there is a Warren Buffet.

[GrantDawg]

The best take is that virtual currency is always going to be be erratic investment that may be more volatile than some, but no more than others.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[JPhillips]

Bitcoin is everything wrong with our financial markets. It's a nearly useless product that makes people rich or broke based on speculation and insider trading.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Bitcoin is everything wrong with our financial markets. It's a nearly useless product that makes people rich or broke based on speculation and insider trading.

Bitcoin is also a hedge or a bet against the US dollar, but if you're going to do that I'd rather just go with physical Silver or Gold, especially now that JP Morgan has been charged with RICO charges and can't manipulate as blatantly as they were for the last decade.

PS GME going brrrrrrrrr again, even in after hours. I'm glad I held on to my measly 8 shares after cashing out the principal. PS it's not "retail" doing this...

[JPhillips]

The dollar is infinitely more stable than Bitcoin. Nobody blinks from day to day when it changes value by 10% or more.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

PS GME going brrrrrrrrr again, even in after hours. I'm glad I held on to my measly 8 shares after cashing out the principal. PS it's not "retail" doing this...

I didn't even notice. What the hell is going on

SI

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The dollar is infinitely more stable than Bitcoin. Nobody blinks from day to day when it changes value by 10% or more.

Of course the dollar is more stable than BTC, and of course the US government will never let an unregulated transnational currency become fiat. There's 300 million people in the US, a significant enough % think the US dollar is at risk of collapse due to hyperinflation or want to have something "off the books" (LoL go ETH & de-fi instead at least) that it's driven $$$ into that as a hedging mechanism. It's that & speculators driving the price up, and idk about y'all but when I go to a casino I'd rather put it into something with a lot of upside instead of one like BTC that might have 2?3?x upside but a huge downside too.

Call me Pollyanna on that one if you want - and I know a lot of people were wrong before the huge run up - but if I wanted to put more $$$ into crypto I'd be hitting up Ethereum based stuff or a bundle of small cap de-fi related companies that could make a jump.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I didn't even notice. What the hell is going on

SI

I'm not sure if anyone knows (and those who come closest and have $$$ in the mix are smart enough to avoid publicly saying anything that will either go down as market manipulation if they're right or be mercilessly mocked if they're wrong), but my favorite theory is that the big shorts (Melvin Capital as the canary - though they may have actually gotten out when they took the bailout $$$ - or places like Citadel never really left, and other giant firms that were long on GME (Fidelity, Morgan Stanley, Blackrock) are using the possibility of a short squeeze to bleed them a lot in the short term, and possibly even bankrupt them & take their market share if they can trust each other & not be the first whale to start shorting this time

Amongst the FUD, general idiocy, occasional great meme, there are also the occasional great post in the Reddit world. This one was posted around 1pm & gave a prediction for how there would be a big fight to finish above or below $50 EoD because of what it would mean for Friday call options & how that would trigger a gamma squeeze, & then it actually happened. (Possibly even more than anticipated today...) My Theory for todays market close. Get ready for a BATTLE. : GME

I could be (/probably am!) wrong about a lot, but no question it's major players driving this now, not Reddit/"retail". Also that GME is definitely overvalued on the fundamentals at it's current price point, but major players have still been holding (Fidelity has between 20-40 million shares, and the data they released showed they basically sold none of that by 1/31 despite GME's 1st run up happening 1/27-1/29 & an opportunity to lock in hundreds of billions in gains), and some have even been buying back in with massive positions at $45ish (Morgan Stanley picked up 4.2m shares in February, someone else I can't remember picked up 5m).

[Flasch186]

I gambled on KOSS at the close yesterday that something stupid might be in the offing again.... now to sell sometime today.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I'm not sure if anyone knows (and those who come closest and have $$$ in the mix are smart enough to avoid publicly saying anything that will either go down as market manipulation if they're right or be mercilessly mocked if they're wrong), but my favorite theory is that the big shorts (Melvin Capital as the canary - though they may have actually gotten out when they took the bailout $$$ - or places like Citadel never really left, and other giant firms that were long on GME (Fidelity, Morgan Stanley, Blackrock) are using the possibility of a short squeeze to bleed them a lot in the short term, and possibly even bankrupt them & take their market share if they can trust each other & not be the first whale to start shorting this time

Amongst the FUD, general idiocy, occasional great meme, there are also the occasional great post in the Reddit world. This one was posted around 1pm & gave a prediction for how there would be a big fight to finish above or below $50 EoD because of what it would mean for Friday call options & how that would trigger a gamma squeeze, & then it actually happened. (Possibly even more than anticipated today...) My Theory for todays market close. Get ready for a BATTLE. : GME

I could be (/probably am!) wrong about a lot, but no question it's major players driving this now, not Reddit/"retail". Also that GME is definitely overvalued on the fundamentals at it's current price point, but major players have still been holding (Fidelity has between 20-40 million shares, and the data they released showed they basically sold none of that by 1/31 despite GME's 1st run up happening 1/27-1/29 & an opportunity to lock in hundreds of billions in gains), and some have even been buying back in with massive positions at $45ish (Morgan Stanley picked up 4.2m shares in February, someone else I can't remember picked up 5m).

I love reading the wild speculation on r/wsb and other assorted places. It reads like financial fan fiction to me and I have no way to discern what's real or not. I've got my share of GME for the ride ticket (I actually have 2; had 3 until this morning) and to "feel" how it moves but I don't have any money in it worth fretting over or jamming the F5 key over and over again.

SI

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Sorry guys. I finally put money in crypto. That's why it's crashing. It's my fault. Sorry.

(Only a few hundred of my "gambling-slash-ready-to-lose-it-all" money so no biggie for me thankfully)

I threw some more money into my index based Mutual Fund yesterday and now the S&P 500 is down 50.

I guess I should've dumped it into Gamestop.

[Flasch186]

Got out of Koss with a nice gain this am.

[Edward64]

Frakking fugly today

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Frakking fugly today

I see nothing but green today! GME up 88% currently

SI

[sabotai]

Fuck it.

10 shares at $150. Let's see what happens.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Fuck it.

10 shares at $150. Let's see what happens.

Dammit Sabotai you killed it!

Nah, just kidding, but the more I read I really do think there is going to be a huge war tomorrow over where it ends because of all the calls that end at certain prices.) Options trading definitely seems like a ticking time bomb if left unregulated - here's a cut of the head of IB talking about how it almost ran up into the thousands the first time Repost, but you might want to watch this again : wallstreetbets

I have zero idea which way it will go tomorrow, but it's fascinating to watch it play out & I've learned more about how the markets work during this than any time before, so it's worth it in that regard!

(PS sorry Edward, but there's enough evidence by now that if/when GME does shoot up it's clearly paired with a big market downturn, because super over leveraged places are unwinding positions in multiple companies to get cash on hand to cover their exposure. Personally I'd love GME to moon, the whole market to dip as chaos occurred, and then the chance to buy back in to those now undervalued assets that'll keep going up as the Feds keep interest rates super low. But make no mistake, if GME does soar it will hurt the entire market...)

[sabotai]

Yeah, it's what I do.

But these hands are not made of paper!

[sterlingice]

It's just fascinating to watch

Also, I kindof laugh at the people who are like "real" investors* blanching at this volatility or how this isn't the real market. Like there isn't a metric ton of bs manipulation, speculation, and valuations divorced from fundamentals with every other stock. Like Tesla is worth its crazy stupid valuations. Or cryptos or whatever. It's baseball cards and beanie babies but for grownups. This is just the crazy visible version of it, amped up to 11, and hyped up by a bunch of morons. I especially love watching Jim Cramer lose his mind over it, tripping over himself to protect his hedge fund buddies, and pretending to not get what's going on like he wasn't taken to the woodshed over this exact same crap by Jon Stewart over a decade ago.

*Especially the ones who are like "I've been making money hand over fist the last 10 years so I'm super investor"; no kidding: index funds have made money hand over fist the last 10 years because of this hyper-inflated market where the Fed is buying up bad corporate debt like a drunken sailor and Trump was busy super-charging the economy for the rich

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Yeah, it's what I do.

But these hands are not made of paper!

Diamond hands! Stock goes brrr! Rocket ship emoji! Not financial advice: this is a casino, sir!

I just can't do it. It's like any time a parent tries to act cool. It just comes off even more lame.

EDIT: But, hey, talk of someone's butt cheeks made it onto Fox Business: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetb...e_accountable/

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

(PS sorry Edward, but there's enough evidence by now that if/when GME does shoot up it's clearly paired with a big market downturn, because super over leveraged places are unwinding positions in multiple companies to get cash on hand to cover their exposure. Personally I'd love GME to moon, the whole market to dip as chaos occurred, and then the chance to buy back in to those now undervalued assets that'll keep going up as the Feds keep interest rates super low. But make no mistake, if GME does soar it will hurt the entire market...)

I'm okay with GME stirring up the market dynamics, change is good and then the SEC, Feds et. al will figure it out for the better.

But don't think GME is the main driver of this downturn, or at least this week's. Combination of things but what I read was inflation fears and speculate lack of progress (or good news) on Stimulus 2. TBH, I don't understand the inflation fears. I could have sworn I read in previous months that inflation is a non-issue.

And then we have Nasdaq doing much worse than Dow or S&P which means (I think) a correction on the Tech heavy growth stocks vs value oriented.

Correction on currently overvalued tech stocks I can handle, expect. We all know Stimulus 2 will happen. So I'm confident that overall markets will recover in short manner if it was just those 2 things.

Inflation fears is an unknown. I don't remember having to worry about inflation in my adult years but have heard it was a bear and that is something the Fed worries about all the time. If true, this could be a multi-year thing.

FWIW, kicking myself. I've been reporting that I've started investing in ARKK even though I was concerned about 10% in Tesla. I've also been moving away from value oriented funds to tech funds. So my portfolio is sucking right now. Tech funds, no problem they will recover. ARKK and Tesla, dunno.

And on top of that, Apple has been sucking. Oh well, think long term.

[PilotMan]

20 years. In for the long haul and short moves don't concern me a whole lot.

[sabotai]

I lied, my hands are totally made of paper. I tapped at earlier today at $120. I'll take my $300 loss and I will not be doing anything this stupid again this week.

The only surprising thing is that the price didn't immediately shoot up to $300 after I sold.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by sabotai

I lied, my hands are totally made of paper. I tapped at earlier today at $120. I'll take my $300 loss and I will not be doing anything this stupid again this week.

The only surprising thing is that the price didn't immediately shoot up to $300 after I sold.

"Paper handed bitch!"

Am I doing this right?

SI

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by sabotai

I lied, my hands are totally made of paper. I tapped at earlier today at $120. I'll take my $300 loss and I will not be doing anything this stupid again this week.

The only surprising thing is that the price didn't immediately shoot up to $300 after I sold.

You can still get back in buddy...

So the analysis here that makes sense to me is that it truly is a war surrounding call options (which expire every Friday EoD, but can also be exercised earlier in the week if the stock closes above the target price on any given day). That's why there was a MASSIVE fight with high volume at EoD over whether the price would finish over or under $100. The "Longs" won, it did, and that put 4.722 million shares in the money & meant Chicago option writers need to find them by EoD Monday for that strike price alone. https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/GME/options/ (I don't know what the Failure to Deliver punishment is on option calls, it sounds a lot more severe than Shorting where you can basically get a slap on the wrist & put it off for 14 days by paying 5% or less of the price, but we're in uncharted waters here.)

There were about 10 million shares that hit ITM today and are due Monday. There are about 15 million that will hit next Friday up to $100, about double that by the time you hit $200, and that mad lad DFV (probably) dropped $2.4 million on 2,000 250c options that expire next Friday 3/5. Not like he'll get $2.4 if it hits that price, rather he spent $2.4m for the right to buy 200,000 shares for $50m next Friday regardless of the price it's actually at, and he can either pocket the difference if it's above that, or just sit on the shares. But what's creating the feedback loop is that the options writers need to actually buy the shares each Monday & transfer them, which is what led to the gamma squeeze late on Wednesday & could very well do so on Monday.

Either way, once you start realizing the sheer numbers involved here it becomes obvious selling (at least OTM) options should probably be capped at float or at least total "available" shares, that Plotkin wasn't lying when he told Congress it was really the options activity not shorts getting out that caused the first huge spike, and the fact that that MF'er DFV is literally putting up $2.4m on a bet it should be at or above $250 by next Friday is a pretty good sign. And if I don't sound like a complete rambling lunatic by now check out the 3/19 option calls numbers...

[sterlingice]

What is up with all the $800 option calls? There were a ton today, a ton next week, and, yeah, another ton at 3/19. Like why $800?

SI

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

What is up with all the $800 option calls? There were a ton today, a ton next week, and, yeah, another ton at 3/19. Like why $800?

SI

3 theories - one is that they were so super cheap that people who thought this would squeeze picked them up for literal pennies, another is that shorts who were worried about it squeezing took them out as a last resort hedge against getting completely bankrupted, and the 3rd is that if you have an option call on the stock (at any price) you can legally create a synthetic short against that call which is technically "covered" even though you don't have the stock in hand because you have a hard option to buy the stock. Idk if they 3rd one is 100% accurate - there's other ways to create synthetic shares too.

($800 was also the max they'd allow - I think it's basically 2x of the highest closing price in the last 90 days or something.)

[Fidatelo]

I was holding 2 shares at $69 avg (giggity) but sold out on Thursday, one right at the peak ($168) to lock in profits and then the other at close ($109), kind of thinking the movement was ending.


But in the evening I started reading about some of the factors Bishop lists above and decided this thing likely still has legs, so I bought back in first thing Friday morning, unfortunately right at the peak (1 share @ $135).


It's going to be interesting to watch over the next 2-3 weeks and see if the DD on these options calls is accurate and if the hedgefunds use even more devious tricks to wriggle off the hook. At this point I've taken enough profit to cover all but $10 of that one share, so I can ride this thing right to the bottom for the price of a movie ticket, which is well worth the entertainment value

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

You can still get back in buddy...

Well I do have a very long track record of not learning my lesson.

At least it looks like I can maybe jump back in at a little over $100 Monday morning. But this time I'll only buy a few shares.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

3 theories - one is that they were so super cheap that people who thought this would squeeze picked them up for literal pennies, another is that shorts who were worried about it squeezing took them out as a last resort hedge against getting completely bankrupted, and the 3rd is that if you have an option call on the stock (at any price) you can legally create a synthetic short against that call which is technically "covered" even though you don't have the stock in hand because you have a hard option to buy the stock. Idk if they 3rd one is 100% accurate - there's other ways to create synthetic shares too.

($800 was also the max they'd allow - I think it's basically 2x of the highest closing price in the last 90 days or something.)

You see HeyItsPixeL's post this morning?

Endgame DD: How last weeks actions all come together to one specific Date. All the data analyzed. : GME

Again, not educated enough to know what of this is Wall Street fan fiction, what can derail things, or what is just pure false. But it's interesting, to say the least.

SI

[Edward64]

There is definitely something to be said for automatic 401k deduction & investing of funds. Don't ever see it, out of sight out of mind.

A good example is every month we have some excess funds after Expenses. The size of it is dependent on how much we spend of course. We send the money into our taxable account.

Right now the $ is just sitting there, I'm wondering if I want to buy more AAPL, ARKK, VIGRX, SCHD, VDIGX or wait for the market to go down more. What to do ...

[Edward64]

Good news that stock futures are up. Dow .67%+, S&P .80% and Nasdaq 1.13%. Think some of that is the J&J vaccine news and Treasury yields going lower.

Bad news is I just did my monthly financials and I'm essentially back to where I was beginning of 2021. My Bumble is down -%5% and SPCE really took a beating because of its delays. ARKK is sucking also right now.

Here's (hoping) to a great week!