WW XCIX: Seville High, Book Two: The Janitor Lives!!! Game Over - Blakekin Win!!!! - Page 16

The Jackal · 07-23-2009, 07:44 PM

It's not shocking that the two of you are working together being that you were going to be the two main targets today, I don't know if both of you or wolves or just one or if you're misguided villagers, but I'm not the place to go with voting.

The Jackal · 07-23-2009, 07:46 PM

lerriuqs, now that it isn't a runaway at all, do you think I'm the likelier wolf than JAG here?

nfg22 · 07-23-2009, 07:46 PM

Guys I hate to do this but I have to go and Im going to change my vote. JAG had three villagers votes compared to Jackals one and two unknown. Plus Jackal went after hoops who i think is a wolf. Im going to go with JAG I hope I am right even though I think JAG is likely good but I hate throwing votes away like I did yesterday.

UNVOTE HOOPS
VOTE JAG

lerriuqs · 07-23-2009, 07:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

lerriuqs, now that it isn't a runaway at all, do you think I'm the likelier wolf than JAG here?

I need to read through again - but I was really just checking in...I'll get back to you before the deadline...

nfg22 · 07-23-2009, 07:47 PM

Be back after deadline...get those wolves!

The Jackal · 07-23-2009, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

I need to read through again - but I was really just checking in...I'll get back to you before the deadline...

Alright.

JAG · 07-23-2009, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

It's not shocking that the two of you are working together being that you were going to be the two main targets today, I don't know if both of you or wolves or just one or if you're misguided villagers, but I'm not the place to go with voting.

If you look at my posts at the start of the day, I did not start off in hoops' camp. It wasn't until he posted his thoughts that I decided he was worthy of being trusted and that information changed my earlier vote on lerriuqs.

The Jackal · 07-23-2009, 07:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

If you look at my posts at the start of the day, I did not start off in hoops' camp. It wasn't until he posted his thoughts that I decided he was worthy of being trusted and that information changed my earlier vote on lerriuqs.

I know, but hoops is a powerful ally, and when he came out in support of you being good .. it's not surprising, I was just pointing it out in thinking back to what people were planning after the results last night.

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 07:59 PM

I'm considering taking a huge chance here, with the understanding that tomorrow, if this is wrong, is a JAG-Hoops showdown.

unvote JAG

vote the Jackal

The Jackal · 07-23-2009, 08:05 PM

Where did that come from?

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 08:07 PM

There are two groups of people that have voted together all three days:

Claph-The Jackal

and

Hoops-JAG

The Hoops/JAG voting record is the worse of the two but we've said it time and again that wolves can compile a better record. In fact, Jackal and Claphamsa have avoided actually being part of any lynch at this point. They voted Pass day 1 but there weren't the votes to lynch, day 2 they voted back-to-back but avoided voting for Pass. Day 3 they voted for ntn, 16 posts apart. The two of them seem to have played a very close game. I want to test Jackal here and then if we're wrong, go the Hoops-JAG route tomorrow.

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Where did that come from?

Sorry, took me a minute to get my explanation up.

The Jackal · 07-23-2009, 08:10 PM

Weird, I didn't even realize I had a voting affiliation with clap. And speaking of him, where has he been?

The Jackal · 07-23-2009, 08:10 PM

I just find it silly that their voting records are worse but you'd rather test me in a lynch. That seems counter-intuitive..

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Weird, I didn't even realize I had a voting affiliation with clap. And speaking of him, where has he been?

I was wondering this as well actually.

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 08:13 PM

I'm going to work up a vote count real quick, just to see how things stand.

JetsIn06 · 07-23-2009, 08:18 PM

Bah, I just did one. Should have said something. Well at least you can double check, I probably fudged it up.

Code:

hoops - 2 (claphamsa #623, MartinD #713)
JAG - 4 (Jets #653, Jackal #674, ntndeacon #711, nfg #753)
The Jackal - 5 (hoops #664, JAG #670, lerriuqs #712, Schmidty #736, PB #759)

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 08:18 PM

Good as of post #766

JAG 4- Jets (653), Jackal (674), ntn (711), nfg (753)

Jackal 5- Hoops (664), JAG (670), Lerriuqs (712), Schmidty (736), PB (759)

Hoops 2- Claphamsa (623), Martin (713)

No votes: The Norm

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 08:19 PM

We match Jets, thanks.

JetsIn06 · 07-23-2009, 08:20 PM

Something about the Jackal vote seems strange. I have no idea if he's wolf or not, but after going through the votes it's clear that there were already six or seven votes out with none going to the Jackal, and then all of a sudden people start coming to his rescue, it seems. Not quite sure what to make of that yet.

JetsIn06 · 07-23-2009, 08:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

We match Jets, thanks.

Thank you. Sorry I didn't let you know.

The Jackal · 07-23-2009, 08:22 PM

Well it was started by hoops, then when JAG realized hoops wasn't after him and that they could use an argument against me, that was 2 on me. Then lerriuqs switched from jag to me because he didn't want it to be a runaway, but it never was, and he's still on me. Schmidty gave his reasoning, and now PB gave his, but it all seems kind of counter-intuitive if we're talking vote analysis.

JAG · 07-23-2009, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JetsIn06

Something about the Jackal vote seems strange. I have no idea if he's wolf or not, but after going through the votes it's clear that there were already six or seven votes out with none going to the Jackal, and then all of a sudden people start coming to his rescue, it seems. Not quite sure what to make of that yet.

Who's been coming to his rescue? The only thing I could see nfg who moved from hoops to me.

JetsIn06 · 07-23-2009, 08:23 PM

Okay, newbie question. Do we know what the villager/wolf ratio is? Is that something that is always the same in every game or will we not know until the end?

JetsIn06 · 07-23-2009, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Who's been coming to his rescue? The only thing I could see nfg who moved from hoops to me.

Not necessarily people moving votes...I just noticed that there were quite a few votes before the Jackal got named. Could be coincidence, honestly, but it was something that I noticed.

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JetsIn06

Okay, newbie question. Do we know what the villager/wolf ratio is? Is that something that is always the same in every game or will we not know until the end?

We don't know, in an 18 person game, it's likely 3 or 4 wolves. The only reason I say it could be three is that there are several independent roles out there, which may cut the number of wolves.

JetsIn06 · 07-23-2009, 08:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

We don't know, in an 18 person game, it's likely 3 or 4 wolves. The only reason I say it could be three is that there are several independent roles out there, which may cut the number of wolves.

Cool. Thanks.

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 08:28 PM

If I had to guess Jets, I would say 4 (including Danny).

JAG · 07-23-2009, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Well it was started by hoops, then when JAG realized hoops wasn't after him and that they could use an argument against me, that was 2 on me. Then lerriuqs switched from jag to me because he didn't want it to be a runaway, but it never was, and he's still on me. Schmidty gave his reasoning, and now PB gave his, but it all seems kind of counter-intuitive if we're talking vote analysis.

Voting analysis is only one tool for selecting a vote though. PB pointed out that wolves ofttimes compile a better voting record than villagers. I've helped out as much as I could have outside of voting and I'd like to think I've come across fairly villagery. I also think hoops has put together pretty good analysis and been helpful in that way. I don't feel comfortable about your posts. If you're a villager, you can yell at me after the game (EF deserves to already, what's another person?), I just feel like you're a more credible wolf at this point.

JAG · 07-23-2009, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JetsIn06

Not necessarily people moving votes...I just noticed that there were quite a few votes before the Jackal got named. Could be coincidence, honestly, but it was something that I noticed.

Ok, just curious.

The Jackal · 07-23-2009, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Voting analysis is only one tool for selecting a vote though. PB pointed out that wolves ofttimes compile a better voting record than villagers. I've helped out as much as I could have outside of voting and I'd like to think I've come across fairly villagery. I also think hoops has put together pretty good analysis and been helpful in that way. I don't feel comfortable about your posts. If you're a villager, you can yell at me after the game (EF deserves to already, what's another person?), I just feel like you're a more credible wolf at this point.

I don't anticipate being able to convince you to come off of me, likely because you are a wolf. So I'm sorry you find my posts uncomfortable, but this whole turn on me has been very fishy.

hoopsguy · 07-23-2009, 08:37 PM

Caught up on the reading, but I'm not here for the duration just yet. Should be around down the stretch if people have questions they would like to ask me.

PB - I'm in agreement with you on the showdown for tomorrow (with JAG) if Jackal shows up good. Even though my WW playing style says otherwise, I don't really like being the subject of a ton of scrutiny every day

But I would completely understand it based on voting records, lack of seer availability to clear, etc. Final thought on this paragraph: this is not me setting up the dominoes for tomorrow as an evil wolf. It is just commenting on an observation by the one cleared guy in the game.

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 08:38 PM

Hoops, I can appreciate that, but I may have to push it for today. What is it about JAG, other than that your voting records match each other, that has you siding with him over Jackal?

JAG · 07-23-2009, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I don't anticipate being able to convince you to come off of me, likely because you are a wolf. So I'm sorry you find my posts uncomfortable, but this whole turn on me has been very fishy.

I'm a villager, so I'm all ears if you can give me a real good argument.

JAG · 07-23-2009, 08:42 PM

Humor me Jackal, pretend that you KNOW I'm a villager. Who would you convince me to vote for and why?

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 08:44 PM

Well, I'm kind of bored with nothing good on tv tonight and the 1 minute quarter Madden demo is a horrible idea (looks good but not long enough to make a good judgment), so let's keep things interesting.

unvote The Jackal

vote JAG

The Jackal · 07-23-2009, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Humor me Jackal, pretend that you KNOW I'm a villager. Who would you convince me to vote for and why?

Hm. If this was a fresh vote and you were cleared I would probably push for either TheNorm or hoops.

Norm because it seems likely that at least one wolf would be on Danny on the first day to try and gain trust, and I find it much more likely it would be at Norm's placement than where nfg did it.

hoops because of the voting record, and now also that he's come after me instead of clap, which I found odd to begin with, when a wolf comes after you when you are a villager it generally feels different than when a villager comes after you

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Good as of post #786

JAG 5- Jets (653), Jackal (674), ntn (711), nfg (753), PB (786)

Jackal 4- Hoops (664), JAG (670), Lerriuqs (712), Schmidty (736)

Hoops 2- Claphamsa (623), Martin (713)

No votes: The Norm

Would be kind of fun if Norm voted Hoops, I could throw a vote there, and let Abe's three-sided coin do its worst.

hoopsguy · 07-23-2009, 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hoops, I can appreciate that, but I may have to push it for today. What is it about JAG, other than that your voting records match each other, that has you siding with him over Jackal?

I think that JAG's analysis has seemed consistent with a player who is trying to make sense of the voting records rather than someone who has a pre-determined outcome with his posts. I haven't seen much of his posting that felt "loose", like he was fishing for candidates that would gain traction.

In short, I think that this is a tougher way to play as a wolf and I have yet to see him pull it off. It does not mean he isn't capable of doing it, but when looking at candidates that are equal in terms of voting records this comes into play.

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 09:04 PM

Hmmm, just under an hour. I'll be curious to see if the Hoops voters or Norm pop in to change things some.

Abe Sargent · 07-23-2009, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Would be kind of fun if Norm voted Hoops, I could throw a vote there, and let Abe's three-sided coin do its worst.

The scene is already written in my head....

hoopsguy · 07-23-2009, 09:08 PM

Abe, I would not spend too much time on it. I'll change the vote to save myself, if I have to do so. I would expect JAG to do the same if he has a meaningful role and is not convinced that I'm a villager.

If we find the three-way tie I think we could see a ton of movement, regardless of how many of the three players are wolves.

Abe Sargent · 07-23-2009, 09:13 PM

I'm not

claphamsa · 07-23-2009, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Weird, I didn't even realize I had a voting affiliation with clap. And speaking of him, where has he been?

right here, just nothing to say

claphamsa · 07-23-2009, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

If I had to guess Jets, I would say 4 (including Danny).

ive thougt about that one... they had one wolf who doesnt know hes a wolv, and we had a backup to our seer, i could easly see 5.

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 09:22 PM

Clap, who would you choose, assuming you were going to move your vote, between Jackal and JAG?

claphamsa · 07-23-2009, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Clap, who would you choose, assuming you were going to move your vote, between Jackal and JAG?

well i noticed earlier that my votes have been pretty bad, and you just pointed out that me and jacyl have voted together... but then again, having avoided two bad lynches isnt terrible (day 1 is nothing but luck).

I think hoops is a wolf, ergo i will not be moving

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I think hoops is a wolf, ergo i will not be moving

Hoping that a Hoops lynch gets some traction?

TheNorm · 07-23-2009, 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

My preference would still be TheNorm, but that isn't happening today.

I'm just curious what you think makes me a baddie here. Voted for Danny in day 1 partly because of the broken iPod (roleplay, obviously) and partly because it's day 1 and it's just a wild assed guess. I admitted screwing up the no vote on day 2, and based off of the info I saw yesterday I thought ntn was the best vote.

Someone posted above if there were actually any vanilla villagers in this game, and that's all I am. All a vote for me does is cast suspicion on you...especially after your vote yesterday.

PurdueBrad · 07-23-2009, 09:28 PM

Claphamsa, why do you so strongly believe that Hoops is a wolf?

07-23-2009, 08:18 PM	#767
JetsIn06 Pro Rookie Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Rahway, NJ	Bah, I just did one. Should have said something. Well at least you can double check, I probably fudged it up. Code: hoops - 2 (claphamsa #623, MartinD #713) JAG - 4 (Jets #653, Jackal #674, ntndeacon #711, nfg #753) The Jackal - 5 (hoops #664, JAG #670, lerriuqs #712, Schmidty #736, PB #759)

07-23-2009, 09:13 PM	#793
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	I'm not __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

07-23-2009, 07:44 PM	#751
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	It's not shocking that the two of you are working together being that you were going to be the two main targets today, I don't know if both of you or wolves or just one or if you're misguided villagers, but I'm not the place to go with voting.

07-23-2009, 07:46 PM	#752
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	lerriuqs, now that it isn't a runaway at all, do you think I'm the likelier wolf than JAG here?

07-23-2009, 07:46 PM	#753
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	Guys I hate to do this but I have to go and Im going to change my vote. JAG had three villagers votes compared to Jackals one and two unknown. Plus Jackal went after hoops who i think is a wolf. Im going to go with JAG I hope I am right even though I think JAG is likely good but I hate throwing votes away like I did yesterday. UNVOTE HOOPS VOTE JAG

07-23-2009, 07:47 PM	#755
nfg22 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Mar 2004	Be back after deadline...get those wolves!

07-23-2009, 07:59 PM	#759
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	I'm considering taking a huge chance here, with the understanding that tomorrow, if this is wrong, is a JAG-Hoops showdown. unvote JAG vote the Jackal

07-23-2009, 08:05 PM	#760
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Where did that come from?

07-23-2009, 08:07 PM	#761
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	There are two groups of people that have voted together all three days: Claph-The Jackal and Hoops-JAG The Hoops/JAG voting record is the worse of the two but we've said it time and again that wolves can compile a better record. In fact, Jackal and Claphamsa have avoided actually being part of any lynch at this point. They voted Pass day 1 but there weren't the votes to lynch, day 2 they voted back-to-back but avoided voting for Pass. Day 3 they voted for ntn, 16 posts apart. The two of them seem to have played a very close game. I want to test Jackal here and then if we're wrong, go the Hoops-JAG route tomorrow.

07-23-2009, 08:10 PM	#763
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Weird, I didn't even realize I had a voting affiliation with clap. And speaking of him, where has he been?

07-23-2009, 08:10 PM	#764
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	I just find it silly that their voting records are worse but you'd rather test me in a lynch. That seems counter-intuitive..

07-23-2009, 08:13 PM	#766
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	I'm going to work up a vote count real quick, just to see how things stand.

07-23-2009, 08:18 PM	#768
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Good as of post #766 JAG 4- Jets (653), Jackal (674), ntn (711), nfg (753) Jackal 5- Hoops (664), JAG (670), Lerriuqs (712), Schmidty (736), PB (759) Hoops 2- Claphamsa (623), Martin (713) No votes: The Norm

07-23-2009, 08:19 PM	#769
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	We match Jets, thanks.

07-23-2009, 08:20 PM	#770
JetsIn06 Pro Rookie Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Rahway, NJ	Something about the Jackal vote seems strange. I have no idea if he's wolf or not, but after going through the votes it's clear that there were already six or seven votes out with none going to the Jackal, and then all of a sudden people start coming to his rescue, it seems. Not quite sure what to make of that yet.

07-23-2009, 08:22 PM	#772
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Well it was started by hoops, then when JAG realized hoops wasn't after him and that they could use an argument against me, that was 2 on me. Then lerriuqs switched from jag to me because he didn't want it to be a runaway, but it never was, and he's still on me. Schmidty gave his reasoning, and now PB gave his, but it all seems kind of counter-intuitive if we're talking vote analysis.

07-23-2009, 08:23 PM	#774
JetsIn06 Pro Rookie Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Rahway, NJ	Okay, newbie question. Do we know what the villager/wolf ratio is? Is that something that is always the same in every game or will we not know until the end?

07-23-2009, 08:28 PM	#778
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	If I had to guess Jets, I would say 4 (including Danny).

07-23-2009, 08:37 PM	#782
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Caught up on the reading, but I'm not here for the duration just yet. Should be around down the stretch if people have questions they would like to ask me. PB - I'm in agreement with you on the showdown for tomorrow (with JAG) if Jackal shows up good. Even though my WW playing style says otherwise, I don't really like being the subject of a ton of scrutiny every day But I would completely understand it based on voting records, lack of seer availability to clear, etc. Final thought on this paragraph: this is not me setting up the dominoes for tomorrow as an evil wolf. It is just commenting on an observation by the one cleared guy in the game.

07-23-2009, 08:38 PM	#783
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Hoops, I can appreciate that, but I may have to push it for today. What is it about JAG, other than that your voting records match each other, that has you siding with him over Jackal?

07-23-2009, 08:42 PM	#785
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Humor me Jackal, pretend that you KNOW I'm a villager. Who would you convince me to vote for and why?

07-23-2009, 08:44 PM	#786
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Well, I'm kind of bored with nothing good on tv tonight and the 1 minute quarter Madden demo is a horrible idea (looks good but not long enough to make a good judgment), so let's keep things interesting. unvote The Jackal vote JAG

07-23-2009, 09:04 PM	#790
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Hmmm, just under an hour. I'll be curious to see if the Hoops voters or Norm pop in to change things some.

07-23-2009, 09:08 PM	#792
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Abe, I would not spend too much time on it. I'll change the vote to save myself, if I have to do so. I would expect JAG to do the same if he has a meaningful role and is not convinced that I'm a villager. If we find the three-way tie I think we could see a ton of movement, regardless of how many of the three players are wolves.

07-23-2009, 09:22 PM	#796
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Clap, who would you choose, assuming you were going to move your vote, between Jackal and JAG?

07-23-2009, 09:28 PM	#800
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Claphamsa, why do you so strongly believe that Hoops is a wolf?

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