Werewolf CXXV - Vegas, Baby - VILLAGERS WIN

[hoopsguy]

OK, I'm going to try and summarize information that has been revealed through "reveals" so far this game. Please chime in if I'm missing data.

Night 1 1: JAG scans Chief Rum as good
Night 1: Chief Rum posts all Day 1 bids, we learn Jackal won his bid (J23)
Night 1: NTN blocked action on PF
Night 2: Jackal protects self, scans Darth Vilus as good
Night 2: Hoops reveals having "2x vote" ability that is not related to purchases
Night 2: Hoops posts that Pass has $1000

[mauchow]

Since its apparent no one else is going admit their bets. Here are the results.

PackerFan bet on Darth Vilus
JAG bet on Chief Rum
DaddyTorgo had no bet
Saldana bet on Darth Vilus
The Jackal bet on Darth Vilus
Zinto bet on Saldana
Crimson Fox bet on Darth Vilus
Darth Vilus bet on Jackal
Chief Rum bet on Darth Vilus
Mauboy1 bet on Darth Vilus
Passacaglia bet on Lathum
Lathum no bet
Tyketimebet on Darth Vilus
Mckerney no bet
Hoopsguy no bet
cougarfreakbet on Lathum
Ntndeacon bet on packer fanatic

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Yes, Jackal that vote on you was a total joke because you provided the perfect setup for a punchline and even your reaction was funny. I didn't plan on leaving the vote there, but then something very interesting happened. For no reason, a minirun started on you. (from Lathum and DV). I hung there to see what further would happen. Lathum is now known to be a villager. DV is assumed innocent from a scan I think. But it does point to the increased amount of runs we've had so far, especially toward the end of the day.

The other thing that bothers me is the first day nightkill. Danny was the target. This happens a LOT and it was explained to me before that the reason is "because he's a good player" and that it's good to get rid of him early. Only longtime regular players know that though and say that, not the many newbies we have. Someone like (of the people left) Chief Rum or hoopsguy or Jackal or someone like that. Since I've seen hoopsguy jump onto runs so far that made me look, I think he's very suspicious.

The other thing that bothers me is mauboy. Every vote has been on mckerney. This is a very Poli-ish move to hide your intentions and cover them up with the excuse of "well I always do that" when many times poli was a wolf doing that. Compounded with the frequency of him joining bandwagons, he is suspicious to me.

But I think my first guess is right.

VOTE Hoopsguy

Hoopsguys seems very suspicious to me as well. He's been jumping on runs, and I agree with you. I know I'm kind of new at this, but I tend to agree with you. I'll get back on tonight, after Valentine dinner, but unless someone comes up with something new, I think I am in total agreement here.

VOTE Hoopsguy

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum, I guess I didn't think that my hidden role was all that important - if this makes me more of a night target then so be it. But if I was offed tonight, then I would have been taking this info to the grave and I always advocate discussion in thread. So that is why I did it now rather than waiting until tomorrow ... I didn't want to potentially be gone and have people not understanding the tie-break (at least as I believe I understand it) going forward.

How can you not think a hidden role is "all that important"? This adds to my suspicion that I'm right on you.

[mauchow]

Its funny to see wolves agreeing with each other.

[JAG]

More interesting than I thought it would be mauboy1.

Unvote mckerney
Vote Tyketime

Hoping he will show up at some point.

[hoopsguy]

Yep, I'm pretty surprised that villagers would consider me among the best candidates today.

Whatever happens, happens. But the logic that has been floated for voting for me is some of the worst I've seen in quite some time. "Supporting runs" without providing any supporting evidence is pretty flimsy, but has gotten me two votes so far. And Saldana is just playing paranoid in concocting schemes for me to be doing something different than what I'm doing - providing my information pretty freely to the group because that is what you are supposed to do as a villager.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Yep, I'm pretty surprised that villagers would consider me among the best candidates today.

Whatever happens, happens. But the logic that has been floated for voting for me is some of the worst I've seen in quite some time. "Supporting runs" without providing any supporting evidence is pretty flimsy, but has gotten me two votes so far. And Saldana is just playing paranoid in concocting schemes for me to be doing something different than what I'm doing - providing my information pretty freely to the group because that is what you are supposed to do as a villager.

hoops, who are you on again? I notice that when someone seems upset about being a possible lynch candidate, you ask them who they suspect instead, and why. So, who do you suspect instead, and why? I'm pretty sure you've already voted, so I could probably find out who you suspect, but I'm up for hearing it again, and hear your reasoning.

[Passacaglia]

Also, I notice that you're citing the lack of evidence to support it, but you're not actually refuting the argument...right? I know you said your busy today, but your argument is that no one has brought any evidence today, rather than "no, I haven't supported runs, here's why" -- just want to make sure I have your argument clear.

[Passacaglia]

blah, you're busy I mean!

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by JAG

More interesting than I thought it would be mauboy1.

Unvote mckerney
Vote Tyketime

Hoping he will show up at some point.

Just curious what was so interesting that makes that switch for you?

[The Jackal]

Well, I'm heading out to dinner. Hope we get a good result this time.

[hoopsguy]

OK, lets work through this Pass:
1.) My day 1 vote was on Darth Vilus about two hours before the deadline. At the time I cast the vote the score was 4-2-1-1 with Lathum ahead of Darth. If I was jumping on runs I think Lathum would have been the way to go here.
2.) My day 2 vote I had asked if anyone was interested in DaddyTorgo at a point where there were numerous other candidates (all either proven to be villagers or vouched for as villagers) in the line of fire. Since people were not backing it with votes, I put a vote on Darth Vilus but as soon as there was support for DT (two other votes) I moved my vote to DT. I would argue that I heavily contributed to starting the run on DT, as opposed to jumping on someone else's bandwagon. I have no idea if DT was a good vote, but the evidence we have right now suggests that all other choices were bad.

My argument is that the suggestions of my being a bandwagon voter are flawed and that I challenge anyone to present evidence backing that assertion. I've now presented my vote history for others to dissect as they will.

[DaddyTorgo]

Out all day - haven't had a chance to check in really (got a surprisingly little amount of work done today). What's going on?

Bout to head off to the gym then will be back here briefly before a conference call at 7:30PM that I have no idea how long it will run.

[hoopsguy]

mauboy, since you've had the advantage of looking at the betting records for longer than everyone else - are there any conclusions that you draw from them?

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post 765

mckerney (2) - mauboy1 689, Darth Vilus 704
crimson fox (2) - The jackal 678, zinto 726
hoopsguy (3) - saldana 708, crimsonfox 731, cougarfreak 753
daddy torgo (2) - hoopsguy 710, passacaglia 729
tyketime (2) - mckerney 733, JAG 756

[ntndeacon]

Well I am not opposed to untieing the vote.

Vote DT

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Well I am not opposed to untieing the vote.

Vote DT

Ironic.

[ntndeacon]

Well I did untie it if Hoops is to be believed. I am assuming his vote counts twice.

[Chief Rum]

I need to vote, as I will be leaving for the other job soon.

I don't feel that hoops is a wolf, at least at this point. Tyketime I haven't seen today (has he checked in?); I'm not inclined to vote for the absent. And a vote for DT probably makes this close to a two man race between DT and hoops. So I am looking at CF and mckerney, both lathum voters on Day One. It's unfortunate that that becomes a primary reason for votes, becuase Lathum himself asked for that. But still, it's logical to presume some wolves would use the "public plan" to attempt to hide their bet, even if it's also a logic that could lead to villagers being lynched.

Between mckerney and CF, CF's the one who feels more off to me, so I am going to go with him.

VOTE CRIMSON FOX

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Well I did untie it if Hoops is to be believed. I am assuming his vote counts twice.

Oh yeah! In that case, I am really glad I didn't vote for DT.

[tyketime]

Sorry all. I've been in bed with a fever spiking at 101.7. I missed both of my sons playoff hockey games yesterday, and have been in bed all day today. I've been more active on previous days so I hope you'll take me at my word.

As for my votes... they've been pretty straightforward. Nothing sneaky or wolfy about them:

I bet Lathum on Night0. Why? Because it seemed likely he was going to get votes based on how he started the game. I followed that up with this saying that I obviously didn't understand the multiple layers to this game. And before the "run" of votes started on Lathum, I bet on him and stuck with it:

Originally Posted by tyketime

OK - so it is 1/2-way through my first day, and here is what I've already learned. No matter how many threads I read to get an idea how to play this game, it's not until I'm in it that I begin to understand the "level of complexity" to it.

I'm likening it to chess. Instead of worrying about just my move, I need to think about my opponent's move, and then my move in response to that. So while I am currently operating at just the basic level, the rest of you are at a factor of two or three times greater.

I bet on who I thought seemed obvious based on previous postings. But now I see that there's a whole 'nother game going on. It seemed to me that winning the bet made the most sense. But now I read these points that by winning, you may in fact be losing in the long term. Sheesh.

Anyway, so it doesn't look as if I am piling on, I will go ahead and make my vote now.

VOTE LATHUM

On the next vote, I went with Darth Vilus because he was one of the lead vote getters the day before, and I thought momentum would carry into the next vote (which it did, by the way). I only switched my vote because I typed in the wrong name the first time:

Originally Posted by tyketime

That's because I'm an idiot noob Pass. The first part of my statement was to try and disprove Lathum's assertion that The Jackal won the bet and thus the services of Knuckles. I agree that Knuckles was very likely won with pooled mafia money.

The second part of my statement was me being confused. Especially in light of my own analysis from the previous page.

UNVOTE: THE JACKAL
VOTE: DARTH VILUS

Both of these votes are consistent with my analysis (no matter how feeble it might be) posted here.

I will read through the last couple days activity again, go ahead and make my vote, and I'm back to bed.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

mauboy, since you've had the advantage of looking at the betting records for longer than everyone else - are there any conclusions that you draw from them?

I had asmall bit of analysis on my spreadsheet...but that was on my other laptp that I left home for my business trip. And since my new laptop came in yesterday I felt the need to bring this one to play around on it.

Ayway, there wasn't a whole lot to get from the bets because SO many people bet on Darth that it just wasn't really all that important in my opinion. The more and more I think about it, the sillier I think this service is because people aren't necesarily betting on who they're voting to go home and just because they do doesn't mean they're guilty. Perhaps to some but we don't have any incriminating evidence saying so.

CrimsonFox I believe was at the top of my list in who I suspected for some mundane reason or another but again, I'm not sure you can really deduce anything from the bets. Do we go after ntndeacon because he picked Packerfan and PackerFan ended up going? HE DUKED THE VOTES!!!??? Probably not.

So, I'm not really sure what to think when looking at this stuff. I may be able to

[mauchow]

unvote mckerney
vote crimson fox

It's your time crimson, sorry. Nobody is hopping on the mckerney wagon with me and you were on my short list to vote for.

[mauchow]

If we do believe hoops, it would be 4-4 in votes now, crimson and DT. Both of whom I believe are okay candidates, I think crimson is a bigger one though, partially for what I said before and what chief brought up (my SS did show all that. I may have my wife email that to me while I'm out for dinner.. lol

[tyketime]

I'm willing to see whether the trend towards D1 Lathum voters points us towards a wolf.

VOTE: MCKERNEY

[tyketime]

Sheesh mauboy, you just blew my strategy out of the water. Well, at least who I wanted to put some heat on.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Sheesh mauboy, you just blew my strategy out of the water. Well, at least who I wanted to put some heat on.

I'm happy to switch back for now..

unvote crimsonfox
vote mckerney

As it stands right now then, we've got 4-4-3-3...

If hoops is indeed a 2 vote party it'd be a tie and either mckerney or hoops would go home being the 3rd place vote getter if we are to believe that the tie makes 3rd place go home. I'll be curious to see if hoops makes a switch because of that situation.

[DaddyTorgo]

Half hour before the conference call to try to figure out what's been going on today and get a vote in.

When did I become one of those WW players I used to scoff at who wasn't around all day?

[DaddyTorgo]

I just want to state for the record (back on page 14 catching up) that I'll bet on anyone to get killed. The objective isn't only to bet on people who you think are going to be bad, but to bet on who you think is going to be killed.

So yeah - I bet on Lathum because he can be an early D1 lynch target often - doesn't say anything abuot me as a wolf or a villager. Just says that I thought he was likely to be killed and I wanted to make some money.

I don't get the idea behind trying to use who people bet on to die to try to suss out wolves - I think we're barking massively up the wrong tree there and I'm looking very skeptically at those who are advancing that as some sort of extra information for the village - it's a wild goose chase.

[JAG]

Unvote Tyketime
Vote Crimson Fox

Alright, going to put my mouth where my money is, get info on a D1 Lathum voter, and a hoops voter.

By the way, even if hoops is a mobster, I wouldn't be surprised if a mobster from the other side jumped in the voting, one because he's an obvious target in general and two, because he was probably 1 of 2-3 likely bets for today.

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE JAG

[DaddyTorgo]

Hopefully will be back before deadline to make a self defense vote if such is necessary, but I have no idea how long this conference call/contract negotiation will take.

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post #783

mckerney (3) - Darth Vilus 704, tyketime 776, mauboy1 778
crimson fox (4) - The jackal 678, zinto 726, chief rum 770, JAG 781
hoopsguy (3) - saldana 708, crimsonfox 731, cougarfreak 753
daddy torgo (3) - hoopsguy 710, passacaglia 729, ntndeacon 767
tyketime (1) - mckerney 733
JAG (1) - DaddyTorgo 782

[saldana]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, lets work through this Pass:
1.) My day 1 vote was on Darth Vilus about two hours before the deadline. At the time I cast the vote the score was 4-2-1-1 with Lathum ahead of Darth. If I was jumping on runs I think Lathum would have been the way to go here.
2.) My day 2 vote I had asked if anyone was interested in DaddyTorgo at a point where there were numerous other candidates (all either proven to be villagers or vouched for as villagers) in the line of fire. Since people were not backing it with votes, I put a vote on Darth Vilus but as soon as there was support for DT (two other votes) I moved my vote to DT. I would argue that I heavily contributed to starting the run on DT, as opposed to jumping on someone else's bandwagon. I have no idea if DT was a good vote, but the evidence we have right now suggests that all other choices were bad.

My argument is that the suggestions of my being a bandwagon voter are flawed and that I challenge anyone to present evidence backing that assertion. I've now presented my vote history for others to dissect as they will.

you are making me more confident that you are a wolf every time you post

as the person leading the charge against you, i havent once brought up your voting record. I am, and will continue to be, convinced that you are pulling a fake reveal to cover some sort of mafia only service or role that let you get a double vote or duking. you decided to claim it as a secret villager role because there is no one that can contradict you.

i am also seriously having doubts about the Jackal...if hoops were claiming special villager power, why wouldnt you use the scan you bought on him to actually clear him, instead of on Darth, who is actually worth more to us dead at this point because of the way the votes fell on day 2

[JAG]

Disagree Sal on your last point. If Jackal hadn't " cleared " DV, we would've wasted yet another day talking about him.

[hoopsguy]

Sal, it isn't like I'm expecting an apology after the game -especially if you are a mobster - but by forcing the issue this hard you are only going to make yourself look more wrong if/when I do come back villager.

As for whether I would move my vote in a tie scenario - yes, almost certainly, especially with my own neck potentially at risk. Now that I think I know the tie-breaker, I would prefer that we have votes that reflect the will of the majority (provided I don't violently disagree with it) and would not risk a known villager (me) against unknown quantities. Anyone who suggests they would do otherwise in that position is almost certainly not being honest.

[hoopsguy]

As far as being scanned, whoever picks up the scan should feel free to do so. I would say that as a villager or as a wolf, but I actually mean it as a villager. It would hopefully get people to accept that the information that I'm sharing in the thread is legitimate.

[Passacaglia]

Yo MC, you're probably going to change your vote to help make sure you're not lynched, right? Any thoughts at this point?

[mckerney]

Unvote tyketime
Vote CrimsonFox

Would rather go with tyketime here, but that wasn't going anywhere. Of the four votes on Crimson three are from people who are trusted. Seems like the best thing I can go on here.

[Autumn]

Vote count as of post #790

mckerney (3) - Darth Vilus 704, tyketime 776, mauboy1 778
crimson fox (5) - The jackal 678, zinto 726, chief rum 770, JAG 781, mckerney 790
hoopsguy (3) - saldana 708, crimsonfox 731, cougarfreak 753
daddy torgo (3) - hoopsguy 710, passacaglia 729, ntndeacon 767
JAG (1) - DaddyTorgo 782

[saldana]

Originally Posted by JAG

Disagree Sal on your last point. If Jackal hadn't " cleared " DV, we would've wasted yet another day talking about him.

it wouldnt have been a waste. we would have gained valuable information on the previous days vote...hundreds of lynches have taken place in the interests of learning about who was voting which way and who was trying to make a save.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yo MC, you're probably going to change your vote to help make sure you're not lynched, right? Any thoughts at this point?

Saving myself is part of it. Don't feel too strongly on CF at this point, though along with wanting to stay in I know that we've got a better chance of catching a wolf with Crimson Fox rather than me going down. And as I mentioned, with Jackal, JAG, and Chief Rum currently voting on CF at least he's not a target the wolves are trying to bring down today.

[Passacaglia]

What do you guys think of testing to see if hoops is right about having two votes? Even if he ends up being right, does that make him more trustworthy in anyone's opinion?

[CrimsonFox]

unvote hoopsguy
vote mckerney

Self preservation and a total lack of seeing him make him a good candidate. We need a wolf today and I'm not it.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What do you guys think of testing to see if hoops is right about having two votes? Even if he ends up being right, does that make him more trustworthy in anyone's opinion?

Fine with that as long as you are not creating a tie that leaves me in 3rd.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Yep, I'm pretty surprised that villagers would consider me among the best candidates today.

Whatever happens, happens. But the logic that has been floated for voting for me is some of the worst I've seen in quite some time. "Supporting runs" without providing any supporting evidence is pretty flimsy, but has gotten me two votes so far. And Saldana is just playing paranoid in concocting schemes for me to be doing something different than what I'm doing - providing my information pretty freely to the group because that is what you are supposed to do as a villager.

Says the man who talked someone out of voting for him when even the SEER said he was a wolf. I said it was a guess but you are pinging me with your answers and moves.

[hoopsguy]

Crimson, were you even in one of those games?
Seriously, my rep gets me in more trouble when I try to play like a villager. Everyone wants to be the person who catches me, but 80% of the time I'm trying to be a helpful villager. And this is part of the 80%.

[mauchow]

unvote mckerney
vote crimson fox

this is to avoid any goofy crap from happening.

[hoopsguy]

This is what I show for vote count, as of Post #799:
crimson fox (6) - The jackal 678, zinto 726, chief rum 770, JAG 781, mckerney 790, mauboy 799
mckerney (3) - Darth Vilus 704, tyketime 776, CrimsonFox 795
daddy torgo (3) - hoopsguy 710, passacaglia 729, ntndeacon 767
hoopsguy (2) - saldana 708, cougarfreak 753
JAG (1) - DaddyTorgo 782