2019 MLB Thread

[PilotMan]

Oof. Felipe Vazquez...21 NEW felony counts.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Oof. Felipe Vazquez...21 NEW felony counts.

Nothing to see here. Please focus solely on the Houston Astros.

Thx

[Bobble]

Saw this interesting link on reddit. For each MLB team, there's a theoretical genie to grant your team a wish ... but with a catch:

The MLB genie -- One wish for fans of all 30 teams ... with a catch

[stevew]

They’re filming a Jason Mamoa FBI movie in PNC Park this week. Totally surreal that they have the stadium open. It usually never lights up past October.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Arles

If this is legit, it's not good:

Astros using cameras to steal signs, a breakdown pic.twitter.com/rncm6qzXxw

— Jomboy (@Jomboy_) November 12, 2019

BP has an article up that breaks this down. They were using audio software to pinpoint where the banging started and it likely went fully into effect on May 19th of 2017. From that point on during the 2017 season they had the 4th best improvement at swinging strike rate and the 9th best improvement in swinging at likely balls. And to quote BP:

No team in the last seven years, 209 other rosters, has ever had both plate discipline metrics improve so rapidly and massively over the same timeframe within the same season. (The Astros also gained the 22nd-most exit velocity and the most launch angle from this point forward in the season compared to all other teams in the Statcast era.)

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

BP has an article up that breaks this down. They were using audio software to pinpoint where the banging started and it likely went fully into effect on May 19th of 2017. From that point on during the 2017 season they had the 4th best improvement at swinging strike rate and the 9th best improvement in swinging at likely balls. And to quote BP:

Likely continued in the post season, but by using different notification techniques. Since crowd noise was too much for the banging, supposedly there was a number of different things that were used.



I was chatting with our old buddy SI the other day, and we agree, and I think that everyone does do some sign stealing to some extent, but what the Astros did was a massive outlier from the standard. That's why they got caught, and you can't argue that it didn't help them that year either.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Likely continued in the post season, but by using different notification techniques. Since crowd noise was too much for the banging, supposedly there was a number of different things that were used.



I was chatting with our old buddy SI the other day, and we agree, and I think that everyone does do some sign stealing to some extent, but what the Astros did was a massive outlier from the standard. That's why they got caught, and you can't argue that it didn't help them that year either.

Yeah BP also said there were different sounds you could hear prior to May 19th and they were likely testing what worked and what didn't as they put their system into place. May 19th is when it became consistent though.

I expect punishment to be beyond loss of draft picks, fines, and suspensions. MLB is going to make a serious example of the Astros. I'm wondering if the possibility of a postseason ban is on the table.

And because the Mets have to find their way into everything bad in MLB, their newly hired manager is likely going to end up suspended because he was apparently a central figure in getting the system in place.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Yeah BP also said there were different sounds you could hear prior to May 19th and they were likely testing what worked and what didn't as they put their system into place. May 19th is when it became consistent though.

I expect punishment to be beyond loss of draft picks, fines, and suspensions. MLB is going to make a serious example of the Astros. I'm wondering if the possibility of a postseason ban is on the table.

And because the Mets have to find their way into everything bad in MLB, their newly hired manager is likely going to end up suspended because he was apparently a central figure in getting the system in place.

This is what I'm not so certain of. It's either going to be put onto teams as a new normal, a change perhaps to the way that signs are disseminated might be made, or the allowing of some form of it, like from a player on 2nd, like has always been done.


The larger discussion is the encroachment of tech and how it's impacted the way the actual game on the field is played. Recording, decoding and relaying signs in real time though, can't be a thing. That's a bridge too far, imo.

[tarcone]

Id like to see the cards trade Bader and Ponce de Leon to the Pirates for Marte.

Thats a defensive CFer and a #3 starter for them. For a big contract. And the Cards get a 20/20 guy.

Its a win-win.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Id like to see the cards trade Bader and Ponce de Leon to the Pirates for Marte.

Thats a defensive CFer and a #3 starter for them. For a big contract. And the Cards get a 20/20 guy.

Its a win-win.

Two controllable, MLB ready contributors sounds like an offer that the old front office would have jumped at (probably a pretty fair offer).

Hopefully, the new team will go for higher ceiling, lower level guys. We have enough average guys and Marte (along with Kela, Bell and Reynolds) is one of the only above average, healthy guys we have left (Polanco and Taillon can be pretty good if they manage to ever get healthy before they reach free agency).

If we are going to reboot and trade the handful of legit contributors we have, I hope they go for the high upside prospects even if they are 2-3 years away. Pirates’ payroll only has about $35M in guaranteed contracts (probably lower, assuming Vazquez spends the next 50 years in prison), and another $25M after arb cases. If we are trading guys like Marte solely to dump salaries, rather than to get talent, just to have a payroll under $70M then I give up.

Marte, Archer, Polanco, and Vazquez (his career is 99% chance over) are the only guaranteed contracts left (and I’m sure every one of them have buyouts for either 2020 or 2021).

[stevew]

Give up Swaggs. There’s no reason to put a cent of your money or time into this franchise. Pretend the team relocated to another city.

[Atocep]

THE WILPONS ARE ARE SELLING THE METS!!!

It's a glorious day. We just have to wait out he 5 year transition.

[Arles]

ESPN kicked around a potential Cards-Red Sox trade for Mookie Betts. The trade was Tommy Edman, Jose Martinez, Randy Arozarena and Brett Cecil for Betts and Eovaldi. I can't imagine this is a legit option, but if it is I would jump if I were the Cards. I love Edman, but he overachieved last year and Martinez really doesn't have a position. Betts is a blue-chipper and exactly what the Cards need.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by Arles

ESPN kicked around a potential Cards-Red Sox trade for Mookie Betts. The trade was Tommy Edman, Jose Martinez, Randy Arozarena and Brett Cecil for Betts and Eovaldi. I can't imagine this is a legit option, but if it is I would jump if I were the Cards. I love Edman, but he overachieved last year and Martinez really doesn't have a position. Betts is a blue-chipper and exactly what the Cards need.

I would cry tears of joy if this happened.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

I would cry tears of joy if this happened.

Would be awesome.

[jbergey22]

Why does it make no sense to me that a team that historically will overspend to bring in top caliber players is willing to trade one of the top 2-3 young players in the game?

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Arles

ESPN kicked around a potential Cards-Red Sox trade for Mookie Betts. The trade was Tommy Edman, Jose Martinez, Randy Arozarena and Brett Cecil for Betts and Eovaldi. I can't imagine this is a legit option, but if it is I would jump if I were the Cards. I love Edman, but he overachieved last year and Martinez really doesn't have a position. Betts is a blue-chipper and exactly what the Cards need.

One year rental isn't really the Cardinals way though

[molson]

I feel like one-year rentals are out of style.

The Sox would like to move Betts but I think they'll go for it this year and move him for scraps at the deadline if they're not contenders. I don't think there's a deal out there for him that would be worth sacrificing even this one season for.

But maybe we don't know how motivated they are to cut budget. Maybe one of those Dodgers-style trades where the unload all their bad contracts, plus Betts. But that would still be sacrificing a season where they have a shot to contend.

[molson]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Why does it make no sense to me that a team that historically will overspend to bring in top caliber players is willing to trade one of the top 2-3 young players in the game?

Every year they're over the luxury tax threshold the tax rate goes up, to the extent it's now a 50% tax over a certain amount if they pass that threshold again. So they've been kind of warning fans through the media the last year or so that they're planning on being under that threshold to reset the tax clock. J.D. Martinez picking up his option complicated things. So, if they're true to their word, they have to unload at least one of these contracts - either J.D., or Betts, or some kind of salary dump of Price and Eovaldi.

Or they could say fuck it and spend the money. But they've been talking to the contrary for a long time.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by stevew

Give up Swaggs. There’s no reason to put a cent of your money or time into this franchise. Pretend the team relocated to another city.

Just let me have this.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

One year rental isn't really the Cardinals way though

They did it with Goldy last season. My guess is they would try to extend him like they did with Goldschmidt (had only 1 year left when they got him).

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Arles

They did it with Goldy last season. My guess is they would try to extend him like they did with Goldschmidt (had only 1 year left when they got him).

Mookie Betts is already expected to hit FA. Paul Goldschmidt had no such rumors about him. I also dont see the Cards paying 300 million for a guy like Betts, either

[Arles]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Mookie Betts is already expected to hit FA. Paul Goldschmidt had no such rumors about him. I also dont see the Cards paying 300 million for a guy like Betts, either

Yeah, he would be expensive. But, the question is would one year of Betts, 3 years of Evoldi plus a high comp draft pick be worth the price here? It might be, plus you have a chance to extend or re-sign Betts as well. The Cards have Goldy, Wong, DeJong and Carp on long-term deals. Plus they have Nolan Gorman (and even Montero) ready in the wings for 3B - so Edman probably isn't a starter after this year. Arozarena is in the same boat with Dylan Carlson being the long term option in the OF over him. So, the deal is basically two utility guys, a DH with 2 years of control left and a bad 1-year contract for Betts, Eovaldi and a 1st round pick. I think I might still do the deal.

[miami_fan]

The Modern Era Committee has elected Marvin Miller and Ted Simmons to the HOF.

[stevew]

Ted Simmons?

[miami_fan]

I wondered about that myself. I did a bit more reading and it seems modern metrics helped his case.

[Breeze]

Originally Posted by stevew

Ted Simmons?

YES!!! - I hadn't seen vote total yet...so glad to hear this. I've been in his camp for election for a while...So Underrated.

[miami_fan]

Sources - Stephen Strasburg stays with Nats on $245M deal

[bob]

I'm not sure how I missed this before now:

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/rules/three-batter-minimum

Seems like baseball strategy drastically changes based on this.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by bob

I'm not sure how I missed this before now:

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/rules/three-batter-minimum

Seems like baseball strategy drastically changes based on this.

So if a reliever comes in with the bases loaded, gives up a grand slam then a solo shot to the next batter, this rule will force him to stay in the game?

Seems a bit silly

[ISiddiqui]

Yeah, probably should have been exemption in case the reliever gives up a run (or you can even make it 2 runs, if you'd like).

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Seems a bit silly

They don't care how silly it gets, nothing is too absurd in their chase for people who won't give two fucks about baseball regardless.

[JediKooter]

Welp, was kind of hoping the Padres would be able to pick up Strasburg so he could pitch in his home town. Can't blame the Expos for opening up their wallet to keep him.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

They don't care how silly it gets, nothing is too absurd in their chase for people who won't give two fucks about baseball regardless.

They really need to learn to market their players. Espn recently released its Sunday night baseball schedule for the first half of next season and the Nats aren’t in it.

[tarcone]

These spped up the game rules are garbage. If they are that concerned about the pace, change the it 2 strikes and 3 balls, quit juicing the ball and put a timer on each pitch which penalizes either the batter or the pitcher.

OR

Lets go to slo pitch softball.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Lathum

They really need to learn to market their players. Espn recently released its Sunday night baseball schedule for the first half of next season and the Nats aren’t in it.

The goal for MLB and Sunday night baseball isn't to market anything. It's to collect $5.6B dollars from their TV package.

The goal for ESPN isn't to market anything, it's to generate enough eyeballs to hope to make back their insane investment.

Can I explain why the small-market Brewers are on SNB a lot in the first half? Nope, not really, unless it's really a function of who they're playing.

But when even local ratings were down 10% for the Nationals last year vs 2018 -- and now minus Rendon most likely -- it's hard to get too upset with them not being included if you look at why SNB exists at all.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Can I explain why the small-market Brewers are on SNB a lot in the first half? Nope, not really, unless it's really a function of who they're playing.
.

Three of the first six weeks does seem excessive. But if you are looking for an explanation, I’d probably guess that Christian Yelich would be part of that.

[jbergey22]

Since Rendon and Stras got the exact same contract(7 years, 245 million). Wouldnt Nats fan have been more excited to get Rendon back over Stras? It just feels like Rendon would be more crucial to continued success because of everything he brings to the table.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Since Rendon and Stras got the exact same contract(7 years, 245 million). Wouldnt Nats fan have been more excited to get Rendon back over Stras? It just feels like Rendon would be more crucial to continued success because of everything he brings to the table.

Probably, but 3rd basemen don't age well and Rendon already has a history of injuries. I think the right call was to let both walk.

[miami_fan]

Major League Baseball Drops Marijuana, Adds Opioids, Cocaine To 'Drugs Of Abuse' List : NPR

I have so many questions.

Baseball is starting to test for cocaine and opioids in Spring 2020??!!

Cocaine and opioids just became "drugs of abuse" according to MLB??!!

What the hell I am I missing?

[JPhillips]

I have no idea why Cleveland is trading Kluber and cash to Texas for basically nothing.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Ken Rosenthal could have just taken an article he wrote about the steroids and swapped out sign stealing and such. The defenses of “Everyone was doing it” and “We only did it because everyone was doing it to us” sound very familiar.

The Electronic Sign Stealing Era.

As expected, the Red Sox accusations have arrived.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/07/us/bo...ort/index.html

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

As expected, the Red Sox accusations have arrived.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/07/us/bo...ort/index.html

I like how they mention Alex Cora being the bench coach for the Astros in 2017 and the manager of the Red Sox in 2018. That seems like a risky thing to link someone to without more evidence then "he worked for both of them."

[cartman]

whoa

Sources -- Houston Astros' Jeff Luhnow, AJ Hinch suspended 1 year

Houston Astros GM Jeff Luhnow and manager AJ Hinch have been suspended for one year after an MLB investigation found the team used technology to cheat during its World Series-winning 2017 season, sources familiar with the punishment tell ESPN.

Additionally, MLB will fine the Astros $5 million and take away their first- and second-round draft picks in the 2020 and 2021 drafts, sources tell Passan.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And Cora is reportedly named in the findings of the Astros investigation as being the person who set up the scheme while working as Houston's bench coach.

Gosh, I wonder what the investigation underway about Boston might turn up.

[Atocep]

Good job mlb. That's way more than I expected from this.

[SirFozzie]

yeah, MLB dropped the hammer. Hell, they dropped the entire toolbox.

[SirFozzie]

They said in that article that Cora's penalty is going to be harsh.

Hope the Sox have a backup plan for 2020 :/

[molson]

And of course Cora's a 2-team offender

I wouldn't surprised with an indefinite suspension and he can start applying for reinstatement after a year. Or two.

Sox should cut their losses with him

[SirFozzie]

yeah, I can see a minimum of a year suspension plus a NCAA-style "Show Cause" indefinite ban.