Werewolf XX - Of Demons and Elementals (Humans Win!)

[Blade6119]

anyone else find it funny that 3 of the 4 people im most suspicious of are vouching for eachther and asking me to kill someone i felt was good? And saying if i dont its game over...either im way off on all my reads or the wolves are trying to pull a dubb like move

[hoopsguy]

Well, it would take elemental kills for the 2nd human kill tomorrow night because the assassin is traditionally a one-kill per game deal.

13 players left, human lynched, leaves 12 players (2 elemental, 4 demon, 6 human)
Double night kill could end it.
I don't pretend to understand the motives of the elementals, but everything I've picked up so far indicates they don't want the game over quite yet.

Still, I believe it is very important that we find a demon during the next kill.

[hoopsguy]

Dacman, are the elementals concerned with the survival of the warlock and sorceror? I would think they might be, since they would want sacrifices to continue ...

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

...the assassin is traditionally a one-kill per game deal...

I think tradition is more or less thrown out in this game.

[Blade6119]

on top of my other comment, when did we move from 3 to 4 demons?? I thought everyone agreed three demons and that included the warlock

[hoopsguy]

Blade, all I think I'm doing is providing more and more inputs for you to evaluate when making your decision.

Ask me questions and I'll give you answers that I think I can give you without revealing damning information to the demons.

[hoopsguy]

I still think there are 3 demons. Four is a worst-case scenario - we haven't had anything in descriptions up to now that indicates a conversion and I doubt they started with 4.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Ask me questions and I'll give you answers that I think I can give you without revealing damning information to the demons.

You claim to trust st. cronin....fine, but explain why st. cronin says to trust sundvls...i wasnt really all that suspicious of st. cronin till he and sun acted in concert...sun was tied with you for most suspicious, but the guy your trying to clear is trying to clear sun...seems convenient, so why should i trust it?(if i was to trust it i would kill either barkeep or gramat, which wasnt the way i was planning in going

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

You claim to trust st. cronin....fine, but explain why st. cronin says to trust sundvls...i wasnt really all that suspicious of st. cronin till he and sun acted in concert...sun was tied with you for most suspicious, but the guy your trying to clear is trying to clear sun...seems convenient, so why should i trust it?(if i was to trust it i would kill either barkeep or gramat, which wasnt the way i was planning in going

It's also possible that you're a demon, trying to separate the humans from the elementals for your own devious purposes.

[hoopsguy]

Blade, I'm concerned about this as well. Give me a minute or two to work on my long version of this answer ...

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

It's also possible that you're a demon, trying to separate the humans from the elementals for your own devious purposes.

Very possible, so i guess you should keep accusing me and see what happens at the deadline. It seems like you want me to die, and i do let my emotions block my thought sometime...keep on if you want to die.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I know. If we lynch SnDvls instead of Grammaticus, I am 99% sure that it's game over, demons win. There is somebody who can back me up, but I'm not sure who that is yet.

This is completely absurd. We haven't had many kills, and it's still early in the game. How can you be so confident that the game is over?

I know the working theory is that the wolves are going for some kind of frame-up of st. cronin, but he's not helping matters any. I think that at worst he's a wolf, and at best he's an elemental. I was already wary of him before, but I'm even moreso after this.

VOTE ST. CRONIN

[Barkeep49]

I forgot about the elementals when doing my math. Regardless, I agree that it is still likely that there are 3 demons, which again suggests that we have just a BIT, though not much breathing room.

In many ways I think voting seems silly today since we know that it doesn't matter. Therefore let me appeal to the single person whose vote matters. Blade let me say that if you kill me it will effectively be a -2 to the villagers, and no it's not because of me being a lover.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I forgot about the elementals when doing my math. Regardless, I agree that it is still likely that there are 3 demons, which again suggests that we have just a BIT, though not much breathing room.

In many ways I think voting seems silly today since we know that it doesn't matter. Therefore let me appeal to the single person whose vote matters. Blade let me say that if you kill me it will effectively be a -2 to the villagers, and no it's not because of me being a lover.

I disagree that it seems silly. There are still voting patterns to be established, arguments to be made, etc. And, we might save Blade's ability for a later date. Or, he could be lying. I get your point, but I think voting definitely matters.

[hoopsguy]

I think it is 50/50 that SnDvls is a demon.
I am 100 that Cronin is not a demon.
The dots here are not very hard to connect ...

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

This is completely absurd. We haven't had many kills, and it's still early in the game. How can you be so confident that the game is over?

I know the working theory is that the wolves are going for some kind of frame-up of st. cronin, but he's not helping matters any. I think that at worst he's a wolf, and at best he's an elemental. I was already wary of him before, but I'm even moreso after this.

VOTE ST. CRONIN

Everybody thinks that two humans died last night as a result of a one time action. I am telling you that if the right things happen, FOUR humans could die with the right lynch and right night actions.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I disagree that it seems silly. There are still voting patterns to be established, arguments to be made, etc. And, we might save Blade's ability for a later date. Or, he could be lying. I get your point, but I think voting definitely matters.

I still will hold off on my power if im convinced the bodyguard can protect me tonight as my shot will still be fairly random...id love to lynch someone(prob. st cronin) to see if hoops and sun are bad, or if they are on the level...would make a shot tomorrow much easier

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think it is 50/50 that SnDvls is a demon.
I am 100 that Cronin is not a demon.
The dots here are not very hard to connect ...

100?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I disagree that it seems silly. There are still voting patterns to be established, arguments to be made, etc. And, we might save Blade's ability for a later date. Or, he could be lying. I get your point, but I think voting definitely matters.

I agree that we need to vote for the reasons you mentioned. Just wanted to make my point.

[Barkeep49]

Blade, I think after today there will be more valuable people than you to protect.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think it is 50/50 that SnDvls is a demon.
I am 100 that Cronin is not a demon.
The dots here are not very hard to connect ...

Im working here, but its hard to override my feelings that you 3 were the highest on my list(barkeep was 4th)...if you trust st.cronin, why dont you trust sun 100%? It would seem if i was sure someone was good, they person they vouch for would be too...thats where i see a discrepency

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I agree that we need to vote for the reasons you mentioned. Just wanted to make my point.

Yeah, I hear ya. I know it's tempting just to say, "Ah, screw it, let Blade decide who gets lynched." Maybe you do have a point, though. We might as well just ask Blade who we should vote for. Except for that I don't think he knows who he wants to lynch anyway. And, he could still be lying.

[hoopsguy]

100% certain.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Blade, I think after today there will be more valuable people than you to protect.

Who might i ask in your mind...id love to see hoops/sun/st.cronin die at night by wolves to learn a lot...who else has really revealed a lot? And note, im not sure how to take what you said about 2, so im somewhat ignoring it as i dont expect or want you to elaborate much

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yeah, I hear ya. I know it's tempting just to say, "Ah, screw it, let Blade decide who gets lynched." Maybe you do have a point, though. We might as well just ask Blade who we should vote for. Except for that I don't think he knows who he wants to lynch anyway. And, he could still be lying.

The element of him lying is why it is essential he use his power today and why we still vote, just in case.

Blade if you're telling the truth, and I think you are, I think you are far less likely to get killed after you use your power than before, as there will be still players out there who can do far more harm to the demons then you. That and I think the bodyguard will need to be free tonight, is why I urge you to go ahead and use the power today. Just not on me

[hoopsguy]

Blade, with as public a game as I have played up to now do you really think that a seer would not have scanned me to figure out my motives? Just throwing that out there for you to factor into making the right decision. I'm not a demon and I'm doing everything I can to help us make the right move on this next lynch. That is whether you decide it or it is left for a general vote.

And I agree there are probably others out there that will merit protection more than Blade after tonight. So if he has this power he should use it today.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, with as public a game as I have played up to now do you really think that a seer would not have scanned me to figure out my motives?

I'm having trouble rationalizing this sentence with the fact that you're 100% certain about st. cronin.

[Blade6119]

fair enough, i will use it today then...i think st. cronin is now my #1, and thats hard with hoops clearing him.

Hoops, i thought king was the seer, so even if he did scan you it doesnt do any good now that he is dead and told us nothing really. Im going to review his posts right now, but i dont think he did much.

[Barkeep49]

Cronin I'm mighty confused here. Mighty confused indeed. Are you saying that one of the demon powers was the ability to break ties? Considering voting is about the only thing we have in our favor that seems like an awfully powerful ability to give the demons.

I'm willing to beleive your little circle of trust, but if I do believe it I just can't reconcile Gram being on the outside of it.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

FWIW, I've had Grammaticus as a top suspect in my book ever since post #282:


Followed by St. Cronin's response in #283:


Followed by Grammaticus' post #284:



Then the no kill at night happens. I just have a feeling that Grammaticus is not a human.

Gramat is the only one he said he had bad feelings about...were still not sure he was the seer, although he did say earlier he hasnt picked up any baddies yet maybe meaning seer....he might have hit on gramat or not, not sure...

[Barkeep49]

Blade what's your reasoning behind king being the seer?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Cronin I'm mighty confused here. Mighty confused indeed. Are you saying that one of the demon powers was the ability to break ties? Considering voting is about the only thing we have in our favor that seems like an awfully powerful ability to give the demons.

I'm willing to beleive your little circle of trust, but if I do believe it I just can't reconcile Gram being on the outside of it.

If you trust me you will lynch Grammaticus. If you don't trust me, lynch me. Either way, the humans still have a chance. Lynch somebody else, and the demons will win.

Draw your own conclusions.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Cronin I'm mighty confused here. Mighty confused indeed. Are you saying that one of the demon powers was the ability to break ties? Considering voting is about the only thing we have in our favor that seems like an awfully powerful ability to give the demons.

I'm willing to beleive your little circle of trust, but if I do believe it I just can't reconcile Gram being on the outside of it.

WVU breaks all ties, so if cronin said that hes lying...and id assume if WVU dies it falls to me as it has in past games

[Barkeep49]

Whoops. Ok I got the Gramm and WVU mixed up. Ok then. Slightly longer analysis forth coming shortly.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

Who might i ask in your mind...id love to see hoops/sun/st.cronin die at night by wolves to learn a lot...who else has really revealed a lot? And note, im not sure how to take what you said about 2, so im somewhat ignoring it as i dont expect or want you to elaborate much

The way things have been, I have a feelin we'll have a role reveal, or two, before the day is over.

To me the hoops/cronin/SnDvls circle of trust is worrying.

If it's true then we're in the following situation. We already have one known villager, WVU. I know I'm a villager. I think Blade's a villager. I expect that Blade will be on the known good side after today. That leaves perhaps 1 more villager out there, perhaps none. As we have 1 known elemental and 1, or 2, unknown elementals. Finally we have 3, can't believe there are 4, demons.

So if hoops/cronin are telling the truth we have left as unknowns:
Pass
Taz
Ardent
Grammaticus
Dubb
Path

One of those players is an elemental (I've got 2 suspicions there), 1 is likely a villager and the rest demons. Based on all that Cronin has said, I think we gain a large advantage if he's telling the truth and it seems far too early for the demons to start vouching, in public, for each other. The upside to Cronin being right is pretty high.

Therefore I will Vote Grammticus

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Kingfc's room is very troubling indeed. You find various strange items, including a small altar, a crystal ball, and a whole slew of candles/herbs/potions/etc.

Active List
-----------
14 Kingfc22, Human, Poisoned in his Sleep Night 2

The crystal ball meant seer to me me, along with the other stuff...you can draw different conclusions.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

The crystal ball meant seer to me me, along with the other stuff...you can draw different conclusions.

Well that makes sense. Let me throw another possiblity out there:

We know that the dead aren't completely dead in this game. Coffee stressed it was important that the dead keep following the game. The crystal ball, combined with the altar, suggests that that perhaps he could communicate, I'm sure in some limited fashion with the dead. With Schmidty being the only death, and being away, he'd have had no chance to use it.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Well that makes sense. Let me throw another possiblity out there:

We know that the dead aren't completely dead in this game. Coffee stressed it was important that the dead keep following the game. The crystal ball, combined with the altar, suggests that that perhaps he could communicate, I'm sure in some limited fashion with the dead. With Schmidty being the only death, and being away, he'd have had no chance to use it.

Alright, if you buy that then the seer is still out, as well as the druid and bodyguard if im not mistaken...regarding the seer, if hes still alive who the hell is he scanning? It wasnt me, as most people believe me dis-believe me fairly lightly...no one has said flat out im trusted(barring one person who didnt need a role reveal from me). It wasnt hoops since no one is backing him...hoops is backing one person, and not really backing the guy that person is backing so thats not it either i think...sun isnt it either i dont think, as he hasnt cleared anyone(this is all by subtle comments, not proclomations)...that leaves the seer outside that group, as well as the bodyguard i think...i dont like those odds with the list you posted, since i trust 99% one of the people on your list. Just saying, unless one of those is the druid and gained favor or learning another humans role, i dont see the same odds

[hoopsguy]

Pass, for all intents and purposes I may as well have been the seer up to this point. I have direct knowledge of a couple of roles in the game. Those insights have made their way into my trust lists. But based on the roles I have been granted, I do not expect to learn anything else via PM from Coffee.

Cronin, are we really at that point where we lose on a wrong vote? If so, it is that we have to hit Gram or just not SnDvls? For example, would game be extended if I die? Or Path, just to pick another name out of the hat? Just trying to understand if it is strictly SnDvls you are trying to protect or that we MUST get Gram tonight. Thanks.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, for all intents and purposes I may as well have been the seer up to this point. I have direct knowledge of a couple of roles in the game. Those insights have made their way into my trust lists. But based on the roles I have been granted, I do not expect to learn anything else via PM from Coffee.

Cronin, are we really at that point where we lose on a wrong vote? If so, it is that we have to hit Gram or just not SnDvls? For example, would game be extended if I die? Or Path, just to pick another name out of the hat? Just trying to understand if it is strictly SnDvls you are trying to protect or that we MUST get Gram tonight. Thanks.

I am trying to protect known humans, and also prevent a sequence of events I was warned about.

I also want to point out that I don't think there is a seer in this game.

[Blade6119]

im out for a few hours, deadline still tomorrow i hope, as im still teetering between cronin and gramat

[Barkeep49]

Blade, I'm not convinced there is a seer in this game. The way I've reconciled Hoops statements with cronin's is that if the druid successfully sacrafices a random human recieves the knowledge of one of the other humans. Perhaps the druid gets it as well.

My list only makese sense if Hoops and Cronin are telling the truth. If they're not then the only people I trust to a high degree right now are you and WVU.

The only scnenario I see working if hoops or cronin are lying, is that Hoops is a demon, and Cronin and SnDvls are villagers. After all, a demon could come out with someone that should be absolutely trusted with a good deal of certainty. The "worse" that could happen is they picked an elemental.

No matter how I look at it, I just can't make cronin out to be a demon.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So if hoops/cronin are telling the truth we have left as unknowns:
Pass
Taz
Ardent
Grammaticus
Dubb
Path

One of those players is an elemental (I've got 2 suspicions there), 1 is likely a villager and the rest demons.

You think there are 4 demons?

Again, I'm not happy with the idea of pushing the unknowns to reveal their roles.

Also, it seems a lot of people are certain of a lot of things, with no reasons given. I understand that people don't want to show their hands (as I just said in the last paragraph), but it's frustrating. Ideally, in these games I like my circle of trust to grow -- instead I feel like my list of suspects is growing.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I am trying to protect known humans, and also prevent a sequence of events I was warned about.

I also want to point out that I don't think there is a seer in this game.

Can you tell us about this sequence of events without revaling too much of your role?

[Barkeep49]

No pass, you're right. My list should have 2 villagers on it. Which makes finding a demon only a 50/50 proposition. My point remains that there seems to be no way for cronin to be a demon and have the play make sense.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

No pass, you're right. My list should have 2 villagers on it. Which makes finding a demon only a 50/50 proposition. My point remains that there seems to be no way for cronin to be a demon and have the play make sense.

Ever since saldana put it in my mind during the last day phase, I've been suspicious of cronin. I'm starting to warm up. You're right, it's a crazy play, if hoops, cronin, and SnDvls were all demons. I'm still worried about trusting them, though.

It makes me wonder if the three of them are elementals. They don't seem to be on the same page, which as elementals they should be. But maybe that's a ruse for our benefit.

[TazFTW]

Originally Posted by Blade6119

WVU breaks all ties, so if cronin said that hes lying...and id assume if WVU dies it falls to me as it has in past games

You would be incorrect.

[hoopsguy]

If saying I'm an elemental will protect me from lynching and night kills then I'm just fine with everyone believing that is what I am.

But that isn't the case. I'm a little more fragile than the elementals. On that topic, I'm dying to hear what Dacman thinks about todays revelations.

[hoopsguy]

Taz, how do you think ties play out? What are you basing your thought process on?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Ever since saldana put it in my mind during the last day phase, I've been suspicious of cronin. I'm starting to warm up. You're right, it's a crazy play, if hoops, cronin, and SnDvls were all demons. I'm still worried about trusting them, though.

It makes me wonder if the three of them are elementals. They don't seem to be on the same page, which as elementals they should be. But maybe that's a ruse for our benefit.

I think that's unlikely. There were most likely 3 elementals max to start, and most seem to think there were 2. Since we already know 1, I can't believe that whole list is elementals. I could see SnDvls and Cronin being elementals with Hoops being a demon, but from what we know about the elementals it seems unlikely that they would meddle so much in mere human affairs.