WW XCI: Office Space, the TPS Edition - GAME OVER - Insiders Win

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

I know, but I've played in a couple games here where that is what people have done, which is a cop out to an actual vote. Although maybe you and BK are right, do it publicly and then we can vote that person if we want to save his power.

I don't think CR is in nearly as much danger of being killed as others. As BK pointed out, he is more likely to use his power to hurt the village than help it at this point and if I was the wolves I would focus on finding the BG and or Drew.

[Autumn]

Well, we know Chief can do his thing if he sees shenanigans, at least. Can we get some discussion of lynch candidates though? We're spread thin right now and leaving ourselves open to last minute manipulations.

[Chief Rum]

Okay, here's my gut call. It started with this post:

Originally Posted by Autumn

Danny, your write up is good, and similar to what I was thinking. That puts Abe as one of my prime suspects now. I also wonder about Pass jumping to the defense of Lerriuqs. There was a moment there where it seemed like Lathum's intense scrutiny might have led to Lerriuqs ending up as the day 1 target, and perhaps Pass wanted to fend that off.

Barkeep, your point is valid too. I'm not not sure who I would posit as the quietest in game, but a look or two in their direction should hopefully flush them out of the woodwork.

This was from this morning. My issue? It reads exactly like the sort of post I would do if I was a wolf without much suspicion, but trying to stay above UTR. I could truly see me typing this post as a wolf. Autumn basically agrees with everyone but offers no real analysis of his own. He gives us a sizable post to digest, but doesn't really say much, but also "agrees" with several theories, so that he could logically make an attempt claim them as his own or as an ardent supporter of them down the line if need be. If Autumn is a wolf, he did this very well. It's the sorta post I write when I am a wolf when people say I'm so hard to 100% sure pin down as a wolf.

But, look, that's completely gut. I would stay silent and keep watching if I didn't find more. Only one vote matters so far, so I went to Day One. On Day One, Autumn put in a vote on clap when the battle was clap versus Abe, before hoops was really elevated, but fairly late, about 2-3 hours before deadline. He voted for clap, now known to be our seer, and stayed there after clap fake revealed.

Now to be fair, Autumn said right after his vote (Post #222, BTW) he would likely be out until past deadline dealing with his kids (and I believe him). But he also posted 14 minutes after deadline that day, suggesting he might have been around at the end and still didn't switch off of clap. Wolves would stick around for deadline if a wolf was in danger, unless they had no choice. We know hoops and clap were good, and my gut has said Abe is good, too. That means villager battle, and Autumn was okay to skip most of the deadline theatrics, knowing the wolves were safe.

Which leads to the adendum, if Autumn is a wolf, Abe's probably a villager (doesn't work the other way unfortunately).

Thoughts?

[Autumn]

Also, what do we think the murder methods might mean? One was with a powder blue dagger, I believe. The next was a slit throat and a TPS report cover on the body. Could this be clueing us in to which wolf made the attack? How many wolves are likely in a game of 18?

[Danny]

Right now it looks like four main groups of the candidates.

Group 1 is Martin D, Cartman and probably USFL Tecmo where you go for a silent new player who really hasn't contributed much.

Group 2 is Lathum, and Lerriuqs for their interactions with Pass

Group 3 is Abe who we learn about day 1 from

Group 4 is everyone else.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Also, what do we think the murder methods might mean? One was with a powder blue dagger, I believe. The next was a slit throat and a TPS report cover on the body. Could this be clueing us in to which wolf made the attack? How many wolves are likely in a game of 18?

I tried to message Eaglefan to pick up the dagger. He said it was simply because Schmidty is a MSU fan and powder blue is the color of the tarheels, so I think that stuff is added flavor only.

My original thought was either 3 or 4 plus the possible convert in Drew.

[Abe Sargent]

I refuse to vote for lerriuqs barring good info, because I haven't played with him enough to get a good style or sense.

I need to make an early SD vote, so I can vote for MartinD, cartman or Lathum, who all have one vote, bringing them even with lerriqus.

Like all of us, I have nothing on anyone. I prefer to push someone who is both utr and not, like BK has pointed out.

Vote cartman

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Okay, here's my gut call. It started with this post:



This was from this morning. My issue? It reads exactly like the sort of post I would do if I was a wolf without much suspicion, but trying to stay above UTR. I could truly see me typing this post as a wolf. Autumn basically agrees with everyone but offers no real analysis of his own. He gives us a sizable post to digest, but doesn't really say much, but also "agrees" with several theories, so that he could logically make an attempt claim them as his own or as an ardent supporter of them down the line if need be. If Autumn is a wolf, he did this very well. It's the sorta post I write when I am a wolf when people say I'm so hard to 100% sure pin down as a wolf.

But, look, that's completely gut. I would stay silent and keep watching if I didn't find more. Only one vote matters so far, so I went to Day One. On Day One, Autumn put in a vote on clap when the battle was clap versus Abe, before hoops was really elevated, but fairly late, about 2-3 hours before deadline. He voted for clap, now known to be our seer, and stayed there after clap fake revealed.

Now to be fair, Autumn said right after his vote (Post #222, BTW) he would likely be out until past deadline dealing with his kids (and I believe him). But he also posted 14 minutes after deadline that day, suggesting he might have been around at the end and still didn't switch off of clap. Wolves would stick around for deadline if a wolf was in danger, unless they had no choice. We know hoops and clap were good, and my gut has said Abe is good, too. That means villager battle, and Autumn was okay to skip most of the deadline theatrics, knowing the wolves were safe.

Which leads to the adendum, if Autumn is a wolf, Abe's probably a villager (doesn't work the other way unfortunately).

Thoughts?

Right now, I like BK's analysis of cartman, even though that's where Autumn went. But I like it, and I have no problem with you testing the theory with your Duke powers. I would not hold that against you at all, and I say go for it. It's more than we have for most.

[Autumn]

Chief,

Well, that's fair enough. I think I've made enough other useful posts that you wouldn't pin a kill on that one post. In my defense I then went on throughout the day narrowing my suspects and casting a vote. I prefer to offer something even if my mind is still not made up, but I did make up my mind.

And the day one vote certainly doesn't look good in retrospect. I voted clap because I wanted to get us away from a possible tie, which I thought would be bad news. That's the only reason I picked him. I got back around deadline but by the time I read it through and understood what was happening deadline was over and someone else was lynched anyway.

Obviously, if I'm your gut call I'd much prefer you don't waste your power. I'd be glad to explain more if it would help, because you're our one good guy and I don't want you wasting time barking up this tree.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Danny

I tried to message Eaglefan to pick up the dagger. He said it was simply because Schmidty is a MSU fan and powder blue is the color of the tarheels, so I think that stuff is added flavor only.

My original thought was either 3 or 4 plus the possible convert in Drew.

That's too bad. I suspect that the wolves have to take turns making a kill, or at least specify which of them will. I thought maybe the murder weapons would clue us in to that.

[dubb93]

VOTE Barkeep

I have very strong strong feelings that he may be on the side of the side of no good. Barkeep was the direction I was going to go yesterday if not for the Pass reveal and since he is still around today nothing has changed. I will quote my post from yesterday I posted.

Schmidty was not a random killing FYI. Someone very good at this game is calling the shots. I had Schmidty pegged as the seer as there was a link between him and Clap on day 1 that I picked up on. Someone who thinks like me is on the side of no good. If I had to make a guess I would say Barkeep as he always seems to pick up on the things I pick up on.

[Abe Sargent]

You guys are almost as scattered today as a Day One vote!

[lerriuqs]

UNVOTE LATHUM

I'm pretty sure this won't go anywhere today and I have no more detailed proof on him anyways.

[Poli]

Just caught up. Unlike dubb, I think I can support voting for some of the people not posting much. That kind of puts me in the fire, I think. Unfortunately, I've been kind of busy at my work sites and haven't been able to post much while at work. I hate that it puts me in a UTR status, but I can only do what I can do.

I do find dubb's last comment interesting. I was thinking at work today that someone pretty darn smooth might be in running the wolves as well. Actually, dubb crossed my mind first. BK fits the bill as well. It's been a while, but I seem to recall autumn being a pretty intelligent player as well.

That said, I'd like to hear more from Martin.

VOTE MARTIND

[Poli]

I have to go pick up some Cardinal tickets for this Sunday, I'll be back...shoot, I'm not sure, depends on how long he's going to talk to me before I get the tickets.

[cartman]

I'm definitely a simple cube dweller, so if I get offed, take a close look at those who are pushing for my demise.

[PurdueBrad]

CR- I should be back by deadline but in case I'm not, I support your move. I don't necessarily have any read on Autumn but I say go for it if that's what you believe.

[Poli]

I'm still here for another half hour it appears. Meeting him at 5.

[Danny]

Looks like we now have

As of 747:

MartinD 2 - Barkeep49 (660), Poli (768)
lerriuqs 2 - Lathum (677), cartman (686)
cartman 2 - Autumn (692), Abe (757)
Abe Sargent 1 - PurdueBrad (681)
Barkeep 1- Dubb (761)

yet to vote: USFLTecmo, The Jackal, Chief Rum, Danny, MartinD, Leriuqs

[Danny]

I'm leaning toward Lerriuqs at this point, but I'm not really opposed to any of those candidates. The one I feel the best about is probably Abe even though we do learn from the day 1 vote that way.

[Autumn]

For what it's worth, I took Martin's explanation for his quiet at face value, and I'd give him the benefit of the doubt at this point.

Whereas Cartman, I notice, tends to only offer fluff or try to fan the flames of suspicion. I suspect anybody who come in with hit and run statements like his last one, especially if that's what most of their contribution is. That seems wolfish to me, not offering analysis but only encouraging suspicion.

I don't recall if USFL made an explanation of his absence, I need to check back on that.

[Danny]

USFL is here right now.

[Danny]

I'm leaving in about 30 minutes as well and unlikely to be back before deadline, so I'm hoping we get some more discussion before I have to vote.

[USFLTecmo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Question for Barkeep and USFLTechmo, Why did you guys leave your votes on Abe day 1 when Clap revealed and it was obvious there was going to be an Abe-Hoops run off?

Originally Posted by Autumn

For what it's worth, I took Martin's explanation for his quiet at face value, and I'd give him the benefit of the doubt at this point.

Whereas Cartman, I notice, tends to only offer fluff or try to fan the flames of suspicion. I suspect anybody who come in with hit and run statements like his last one, especially if that's what most of their contribution is. That seems wolfish to me, not offering analysis but only encouraging suspicion.

I don't recall if USFL made an explanation of his absence, I need to check back on that.

I've actually been around quite often the last few days, but I don't have much to say that would actually help us take out a wolf. About the only thing I can contribute is knowledge about lerriuqs' game tactics, and nothing he's doing is pinging my radar at this point. As for tonight's vote, I'm in between a rock and a hard place. I don't know where to go with it, but I know I'll be suspicious for not voting at all, too.

[Autumn]

I looked back through USFL's posts and he seems to be offering real content, and nothing stood out as suspicious to me.

Cartman seems the clear suspect out of that crowd. To me it's between him and Abe. Lerriuqs has gotten some hairy eyeballs but I don't see his behavior as wolf-ish. In the Marvel game I last played in we lynched a bunch of villagers because they were playing aggressively and seemed suspect, that seems like what's happening here.

[Poli]

What do we learn from an abe lynch?

[dubb93]

I stand by my Barkeep vote at this point. Do not see myself changing it barring new information coming out at this point, which is unlikely.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Autumn

For what it's worth, I took Martin's explanation for his quiet at face value, and I'd give him the benefit of the doubt at this point.

Whereas Cartman, I notice, tends to only offer fluff or try to fan the flames of suspicion. I suspect anybody who come in with hit and run statements like his last one, especially if that's what most of their contribution is. That seems wolfish to me, not offering analysis but only encouraging suspicion.

I don't recall if USFL made an explanation of his absence, I need to check back on that.

Like I've said all along, since I'm just a simple office person, with no special role, there isn't a whole lot to offer. Other than the first day with a vote that was as much a guess as anyone's, the past two votes I've only agreed with someone else's take.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I stand by my Barkeep vote at this point. Do not see myself changing it barring new information coming out at this point, which is unlikely.

I actually feel like Barkeep may be a better candidate than those with two votes, but we already have three candidates with 2 votes. Considering I won't be around to potentially change it if it never develops, I'm not sure I want to make that vote.

[cartman]

looking back on this, I'm agreeing more and more with CR's last post from the gut. Autumn seems to have zeroed in on me, and is trying to move some votes against me. I think he scanned me or came across the info some other way, and is trying to get a lynch organized because he saw I was just a cube worked. I still think there is a chance that lerriuqs is the other Bob, but I'm more convinced now that Autumn is on the side of evil.

UNVOTE LERRIUQS

VOTE AUTUMN

[Danny]

Originally Posted by cartman

I think he scanned me or came across the info some other way, and is trying to get a lynch organized because he saw I was just a cube worked. I

That makes no sense??

[cartman]

I'm not familiar with all of the official WW terms, but via whatever channel there exists, he found out I am a simple, unadorned office worker.

[MartinD]

After a couple of relatively easy days (from the point of view of working out who to vote for), it's definitely a tougher decision today... Abe made a good point - it does feel like a Day 1 vote (although that opinion is based on my very limited experience of WW!)

I'm having a bit of difficulty working out who to vote for - will have another look over the thread, and post my vote in half an hour or so before I call it a night.

For the guys who have voted for me - I get what you're thinking (that I'm deliberately being quiet to stay in the background and avoid attention), but I simply haven't had the time over the last couple of days to participate as I would have liked. The votes have definitely had a positive effect - in that they've forced me to do a bit of posting to defend myself - but they're misplaced, as I'm just your run of the mill cube dweller.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by cartman

I'm not familiar with all of the official WW terms, but via whatever channel there exists, he found out I am a simple, unadorned office worker.

If he is a wolf, the wolves know who are cube dwellers, they want to figure out who has the roles. I know your new, but that post kind of screams panic to me and I'm not sure you panic like that as a villager

[Autumn]

Yes, Cartman, clearly I am trying to move votes to you. You are my best shot at a suspect at the moment, and we clearly are in need of a lead candidate. If everyone just votes for whoever, we're screwed.

Your defense so far to any suspicions has been simply to say you're a simple office dweller, which may be true but doesn't do much to dissuade me.

I'm open to switching to a better candidate if someone can convince me, but so far I haven't seen a strong enough argument for Abe or Barkeep, Lerriuqs or Martin, to move me.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Danny

If he is a wolf, the wolves know who are cube dwellers, they want to figure out who has the roles. I know your new, but that post kind of screams panic to me and I'm not sure you panic like that as a villager

I've only played four times (this being the 4th), and the only time I was on the evil side was in the Star Wars game. I guess I had a special evil role, because I only knew the role of one other player at the start of the game.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by cartman

I've only played four times (this being the 4th), and the only time I was on the evil side was in the Star Wars game. I guess I had a special evil role, because I only knew the role of one other player at the start of the game.

Evil worked differently in the SW game than this one.

[Barkeep49]

DOLA - There are some games where the bad guys have some sort of scanning ability. None is present in this game.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by dubb93

VOTE Barkeep

I have very strong strong feelings that he may be on the side of the side of no good. Barkeep was the direction I was going to go yesterday if not for the Pass reveal and since he is still around today nothing has changed. I will quote my post from yesterday I posted.

Noticing links like this? Not really my specialty. I can do in depth post analysis (at which point I might notice a link), I can do voting analysis, and statistical analysis, but the key to all those things is analysis. I am, by and large, not an intuitive player and my intuitions are wrong more often than right suggesting when I am right it's purely by chance.

[Danny]

I still an undecided, but am now leaning towards Cartman or Barkeep. I still don't think Abe is a wolf and MartinD is kind of in the same boat as Cartman, but his responses have been less suspicious to me.

[Barkeep49]

DOLA - dubb I don't dispute that someone noticed the link and this suggests, more likely than not, an experienced player. But we already lynched one of those, Pass. And Pass is good at that sort of thing.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

I still an undecided, but am now leaning towards Cartman or Barkeep. I still don't think Abe is a wolf and MartinD is kind of in the same boat as Cartman, but his responses have been less suspicious to me.

What responses? The guy has 5 posts. Frankly I guess I am leaning towards cartman myself at this point, but I'm clueless how you get any degree of trust from what Martin has posted.

[Autumn]

I've got to head to dinner. I'll check back in at least briefly before deadline to see where things are moving.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

What responses? The guy has 5 posts. Frankly I guess I am leaning towards cartman myself at this point, but I'm clueless how you get any degree of trust from what Martin has posted.

Certainly not trust, but less distrust than Cartman.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Noticing links like this? Not really my specialty. I can do in depth post analysis (at which point I might notice a link), I can do voting analysis, and statistical analysis, but the key to all those things is analysis. I am, by and large, not an intuitive player and my intuitions are wrong more often than right suggesting when I am right it's purely by chance.

Oh and conversation. You could say that's one of my better qualities as a player. But still not there with the link that dubb (and Danny?) have suggested.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

Certainly not trust, but less distrust than Cartman.

Fair enough. I think I"m in the same boat.

Unvote MartinD
Vote cartman

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Oh and conversation. You could say that's one of my better qualities as a player. But still not there with the link that dubb (and Danny?) have suggested.

I'm not really sure to be honest. But I have a gut feeling Dubb is good and do see his line of thinking. This is very hard vote for all of us as the spread indicates.

[cartman]

I don't get this. In the morning, people were complaining that there were too many people playing under the radar. Now that I've been more active today, the folks who are still WAY under the radar aren't getting much of a mention at all.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by cartman

I don't get this. In the morning, people were complaining that there were too many people playing under the radar. Now that I've been more active today, the folks who are still WAY under the radar aren't getting much of a mention at all.

I agree you've been active today cartman. But has there content in the posts? I ask this seriously. Reading back over your posts before I did the recap, you definitely amused me a couple of times, but I had trouble, by and large, of telling what you thought. Like I said, serious question and I'm willing to be persuaded.

[Danny]

I have to go. I think Cartman is probably the best bet to find a wolf at this point, but I don't want to make this a runaway and we can learn a lot I think by playing up Autumn and Cartman especially with CR holding his duke ability.

Vote Autumn