Werewolf CLXVII - The Wheel of Time - Game Over

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

I am in fact a villager from Aiel.

I did not receive a Ter'Angreal from Chief Rum, though.

I recognize your honorable action. Thank you, fellow warrior and survivor. So the weight I bear is mine and mine alone. I await your counsel this day fellow villagers.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

It's reasonable to assume I'd be notified if someone stole from me, yes?

Not if I'm as good as I think I am (but, I'm a guy...are we ever as good as we think we are?). However, we Aiel are trained from birth in our skills. How would we survive in our harsh environment otherwise? I do not suspect you would be aware that I claimed The Fifth until you went to interact with the artifact (i.e., until you check your watch, you never know it's gone).

[Raven]

Cheeki did you get to choose who you "searched"? And if so, are you willing to share who you stole it from?

Tomorrow is make or break for us, so we may need to share all the info we have.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Ter'Angreal

These items are of use only to those who can channel, but for those individuals possession of a Ter'Angreal can greatly increase their abilities. Access to such a large source of power can allow them to amplify their weaves, or attempt things which they have never been able to do before.

Ter'Angreals are attuned to either the male half or the female half of the Source, and are useless to channelers of the wrong gender.

I have to admit that I'm confused about the channeling but cheekimonk, if I'm reading this right it certainly looks like there are at least two Ter'Angreal's -- one for male and one for female which I guess would be Aes Sedai, right? So I guess you and Vaimes could have one?

Clearly I am not the person you want to give these to. I search for something different.

[Vaimes]

That's a good point.

Mine is a female figurine.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Raven

Cheeki did you get to choose who you "searched"? And if so, are you willing to share who you stole it from?

Tomorrow is make or break for us, so we may need to share all the info we have.

I only got to choose from whom I stole, not what item I was targeting. I stole from Vaimes.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

That's a good point.

Mine is a female figurine.

Mine is female. I think it's clear that I yoinked your artifact while you, supposedly, took Chief's.

[cheekimonk]

Rethinking...Vaimes, I targeted you because I had suspicions you were aligned with the Dark. How did you come to target Chief on the very night he was chosen for nightkill and know that he would have an artifact (as a Warder, I think it's clear what artifact that is)?

[cheekimonk]

For everyone else, we Aiel do not know who has an artifact and can only choose one target. It's really luck if we snatch an artifact. Vaimes, in this past night's case, seems to have been very, very lucky. That artifact, really any artifact Chief might have had, would be gone upon his death. Did Vaimes know he was targeted for NK?

[cheekimonk]

I had suspicions of Vaimes. Given the really fortuitous nature of his steal from Chief - it has to be the Warder's Cloak - and that we Aiel can only target one person the entire game as a one-time ability (which amplifies Vaimes luck of snatching an item from Chief the night he is NK'd) I have no choice but to suspect even more that he is Dark. If he is, this could trigger the Dark attempting a counter-run on me (and likely a NK, even though I've burned my ability), but it's down to the nitty-gritty so I have to risk it...

vote Vaimes

[Vaimes]

I picked Chief Rum because of his sudden departure from the Grover Wagon. My original target was going to be Coffee Warlord.

Also, can we not base a lynch vote off of luck/convenience, because. Yeah.

[Vaimes]

Why on earth did it take you so long to admit you stole from me?

[Vaimes]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

I picked Chief Rum because of his sudden departure from the Grover Wagon. My original target was going to be Coffee Warlord.

Also, can we not base a lynch vote off of luck/convenience, because. Yeah.

Or rather, I thought he did. Looking back, I don't think he actually was.

I guess his first vote was on Zinto? On the sites where I play mafia, usually the mod also keeps track of who isn't voting in the votals.

My bad.

But anyways. It was really obvious that someone off the wagon would get shot, to maximize the number of suspects on the bandwagon. If the Wolves shot someone on the wagon, that narrows things down slightly. I thought Chief Rum was voting for Grover and then suddenly switched to Zinto, even though Grover was clearly going to get lynched (unless everyone speedvoted someone else), so I thought he'd be worth investigating.

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

I had suspicions of Vaimes. Given the really fortuitous nature of his steal from Chief - it has to be the Warder's Cloak - and that we Aiel can only target one person the entire game as a one-time ability (which amplifies Vaimes luck of snatching an item from Chief the night he is NK'd) I have no choice but to suspect even more that he is Dark. If he is, this could trigger the Dark attempting a counter-run on me (and likely a NK, even though I've burned my ability), but it's down to the nitty-gritty so I have to risk it...

vote Vaimes

This argument is persuasive. Well at least in my current state. I guess I'll see what it looks like in the morning.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

Why on earth did it take you so long to admit you stole from me?

I assumed you knew. Nothing in the mechanics or in the PM I received told me you didn't (although, in retrospect, it does make sense that the Aiel could pull that off without the target knowing). Never announce more information than you need to for strategy purposes. I wouldn't even announce I had the Ter'Angreal if my passing it tonight wasn't likely the only chance to get it right...if it helps us at all. If the target of my yoink wanted to come public, they would do so. Hell, I could even deny their claim. You did in saying that you still had a Ter'Angreal. Saying you had one made my speech, and soliciting the village's help, unnecessary so it occurred to me that you might not know. Then came the whole bit about "These items (plural)..." which would also make what I did unnecessary. Once you confirmed it was a female Ter'Angreal, I came back around to the conclusion that you didn't know, but I still had to make sure the village knows there is only 1 revealed and I need counsel on what to do with it.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

I picked Chief Rum because of his sudden departure from the Grover Wagon. My original target was going to be Coffee Warlord.

Also, can we not base a lynch vote off of luck/convenience, because. Yeah.

I may not stay on you. I am suspicious of Zinto, timmae, and/or Raven/Narc. I almost targeted Zinto with my yoink. BUT, if you had gotten NK'd last night and I made public that I had chosen to use my one-time ability on you before the deed was done, I would expect the entire village to suspect me. Then again, the village didn't know our ability was only choosing a specific person - not an item - and that it was a one-shot kind of deal. I did. And when considering the odds of two Aiel (hell, one of our faction had already burned his ability on Grover with no results) blindly picking a target and actually nabbing an item, your choice of Chief looked very, very convenient and something the village definitely needed to be able to consider in our discussions today.

Of course, you owning up to pilfering from Chief was a noob mistake given the circumstances, but that doesn't make it any less suspicious.

[cheekimonk]

RE: Vaimes. It's 99% certain the item he took from Chief is the Warder's Cloak. Everyone read up: "...this makes the warder very difficult to spot, and so difficult to attack." So difficult to attack, lynch, or both?

[Shoveler]

Day 4 Vote


Timmae [1] - Vaimes (732)
Coffee Warlord [1] - Raven (737)
Vaimes [1] - Cheekimonk (760)

[Coffee Warlord]

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

So. If I remember correctly, it was Chief that was targeted last night, with Martin linked.

They couldn't have known that they'd get a twofer there, particularly since it now establishes a pretty interesting voting dispersal.

I hate to accuse an Aiel of serving the Shadow, but I think we have to strongly consider Vaimes today...unless we got very lucky / unlucky on Day 1 and Timmae is a wolf.

[Vaimes]

Uh. The mod just forgot to PM me is all.

I checked my watch and it is indeed gone.

[Grover]

[cheekimonk]

So...remaining we have:
britrock88
cheekimonk
Coffee Warlord
Glengoyne
Narcizo
path12
Raven
timmae
Vaimes
Zinto

3 of the 5 Aes Sedai are dead. At least 1 of the remaining 2 is likely Black Ajah. The mechanics state that there is "...There is exactly 1 Forsaken in the game, and a number of Black Ajah and Darkfriends..." so could both remaining Aes Sedai be Black Ajah?

We know of 3 Aiel who are all alive and have all used their one-time ability to pilfer an item (1 unsuccessful - Coffee Warlord; other 2 are cheekimonk and Vaimes).

We know of 2 Tear who are both dead (Chief Rum, fontisian) with Chief Rum being the Warder and font being a Tinker.

We know of Illian (Grover) who was a male channeler and possible Dragon Reborn or false Dragon (I think the phrase "possibly the Dragon Reborn" in his obit and Grover himself saying he could be the Dragon Reborn is significant...male channelers grow insane and all false Dragons and the actual Dragon have been male channelers in the past).

We know that cheekimonk holds the female Ter'Angreal and Vaimes holds the Warder's Cloak. It's important to note that we don't actually know what the Warder's Cloak does because Vaimes would have yoinked it before Chief was NK'd.

[Vaimes]

I need to be shot twice to die.

That's it.

It's kinda useless to me because someone is likely going to steal it toNight and then keep quiet.

(Also...if I were scum...pretty sure I wouldn't have admitted to stealing something from the NK target...like. Come on. I'm not that new to mafia.)

[path12]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

3 of the 5 Aes Sedai are dead. At least 1 of the remaining 2 is likely Black Ajah. The mechanics state that there is "...There is exactly 1 Forsaken in the game, and a number of Black Ajah and Darkfriends..." so could both remaining Aes Sedai be Black Ajah?

It would be just our luck this game if both remaining Aes Sedai were Black. I have to think 2 of five would be a bit much balance-wise.

Besides, if both of them were black you'd have had someone trying to claim it by now right?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

God, being a Bulletproof Lover must suck.

Originally Posted by Vaimes

I need to be shot twice to die.

That's it.

I feel better about Vaimes than I did. Not sure where to vote but it won't be here.

[path12]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

3 of the 5 Aes Sedai are dead. At least 1 of the remaining 2 is likely Black Ajah. The mechanics state that there is "...There is exactly 1 Forsaken in the game, and a number of Black Ajah and Darkfriends..." so could both remaining Aes Sedai be Black Ajah?

We know of 3 Aiel who are all alive and have all used their one-time ability to pilfer an item (1 unsuccessful - Coffee Warlord; other 2 are cheekimonk and Vaimes).

We know of 2 Tear who are both dead (Chief Rum, fontisian) with Chief Rum being the Warder and font being a Tinker.

We know of Illian (Grover) who was a male channeler and possible Dragon Reborn or false Dragon (I think the phrase "possibly the Dragon Reborn" in his obit and Grover himself saying he could be the Dragon Reborn is significant...male channelers grow insane and all false Dragons and the actual Dragon have been male channelers in the past).

Don't see any reason not to share my faction at this point. Like Grover I'm Illian but not a channeler, I have no special abilities except for being able to search one player per night for the Horn.

So far I've checked Britrock, Narcizo and Vaimes on N1, 2 and 3 with no success.

[path12]

Vaimes, I feel like you are coding something in your replies but I'm not smart enough to figure out what it is.

[Vaimes]

I don't code. It tends to go unnoticed or it gets completely misunderstood.

I try to be as open as possible as town.

[cheekimonk]

Thinking on the basis of my argument against Vaimes - that he was so incredibly "lucky" to have use his one-time ability on Chief - he and I had these targets from which to choose for our one-time ability last night:

omit Grover because he was toast
omit Coffee Warlord because he already copped to attempting a steal and getting nothing

britrock88
cheekimonk (for Vaimes)
Chief Rum
Glengoyne
MartinD
Narcizo
path12
Raven
timmae
Vaimes (for cheekimonk)
Zinto

Let's assume that no one has the Callandor and that there are 2 Ter'Angreal. That leaves 4 items (Ter'Angreal plus Horn - which could actually be lost, but I doubt it - and Warder's Cloak) among 10 targets for cheekimonk and 3 items among 10 targets for Vaimes (since he already had the female Ter'Angreal).

The odds of any of the 10 targets holding one of 4 items (for cheekimonk) was 40%. The odds of cheekimonk actually choosing a person with an item - with no other information - was [b]16%[b/b] (40% that anyone could hold an item and 40% that cheekimonk would pick one of them).

The odds of any of 10 targets holding one of 3 items (for Vaimes) was 30%. The odds of Vaimes actually choosing a person with an item - with no other information - was 9%.

Now, this means the odds of Vaimes choosing a person with an item who was also NK'd that night - with no information - were 0.9%. If he did know who was going to be NK'd and nothing else, his odds of nabbing an item go back up to 30% (because his choice of targets was reduced to 1 out of a possible 1, and that target had a 30% chance of having an item).

The odds of both cheekimonk and Vaimes choosing targets that had items remain at 16% for cheekimonk and 9% for Vaimes because they are independent outcomes.

In summary, the odds that what Vaimes did last night was random is 0.9% (that's not 9%...that's 0.9%). The odds that he did it with knowledge that Chief was getting NK'd are 30%. It is 33 times more likely that Vaimes knew Chief was getting NK'd

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by path12

I feel better about Vaimes than I did. Not sure where to vote but it won't be here.

He needs to be shot twice to die because he stole the Warder's Cloak from Chief. That's such an obvious point that to overlook it is suspicious in itself.

[Vaimes]

I won a game of poker once with a hand that was statistically unlikely to have been possible. The club leaders, who are much better at poker, were very angry with me for getting so lucky.

So I don't really care about fancy numbers. I got super lucky and that's all there is to it. Sorry.

[Vaimes]

And really, it's not even all that lucky because it's just going to get taken.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by path12

Don't see any reason not to share my faction at this point. Like Grover I'm Illian but not a channeler, I have no special abilities except for being able to search one player per night for the Horn.

So far I've checked Britrock, Narcizo and Vaimes on N1, 2 and 3 with no success.

Jeebus. If I factor in that those 3 didn't have the horn the odds of Vaimes pulling off what he did are even more extreme!! (the possibility that any one person held an item goes down for both me and Vaimes)

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

I won a game of poker once with a hand that was statistically unlikely to have been possible. The club leaders, who are much better at poker, were very angry with me for getting so lucky.

So I don't really care about fancy numbers. I got super lucky and that's all there is to it. Sorry.

How many hands of poker had you played in your life? Now how many games of this particular flavor of WW? I'm very angry that you got so super lucky. So angry, I'm voting that you serve the Dark.

[path12]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

He needs to be shot twice to die because he stole the Warder's Cloak from Chief. That's such an obvious point that to overlook it is suspicious in itself.

I know that. My point was that he or she told us what they got in the first quote and then confirmed in the second one. That strikes me as a helpful thing and so I feel better about him or her.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by path12

Vaimes, I feel like you are coding something in your replies but I'm not smart enough to figure out what it is.

path, you are not helping yourself. It seems that you are giving him small windows out of his predicament...small enough that you can flip on him if he can't take advantage.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by path12

I know that. My point was that he or she told us what they got in the first quote and then confirmed in the second one. That strikes me as a helpful thing and so I feel better about him or her.

What does that change? It didn't even occur to me until some time had passed how suspicious it was that he use his one-time ability, that he could use on only one person, on someone about to get NK'd. He only admitted that he tried to steal from someone after my speech about having the Ter'Angreal and then only because he thought he still had the Ter'Angreal.

As far as I'm concerned, admitting that he stole from Chief was a terrible noob mistake. One where the evidence that implicates him is buried in the subtleties of the mechanics (mechanics that, in this case, only he, I, and Coffee Warlord knew because the fact that our ability is one-shot, one-target was only known to the Aiel).

[path12]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

path, you are not helping yourself. It seems that you are giving him small windows out of his predicament...small enough that you can flip on him if he can't take advantage.

Look. I appreciate your analysis. I'm not convinced by your conclusion.

But don't come around and tell me that I'm not helping myself because I could not give the slightest shit about helping myself. That is pure bullshit right there.

[path12]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

What does that change? It didn't even occur to me until some time had passed how suspicious it was that he use his one-time ability, that he could use on only one person, on someone about to get NK'd. He only admitted that he tried to steal from someone after my speech about having the Ter'Angreal and then only because he thought he still had the Ter'Angreal.

What it changes, for me, is that it is not information he needed to share but did unprompted.

If I were a wolf and killed a guy and got an item that would help protect me, my instinct would not be to tell everyone about it. Maybe he is cleverer than I, though I've never played a game with him before clearly he's not a novice.

And the fact that I have search abilities, and Grover said he did makes me think that at least the Illians are all searching, and clearly the Aiel have some sort of search ability and generally there is probably a lot of searching going on at night -- that is hinted but not spelled out in the ruleset but I think is an easy jump to make. So yeah, though any one search is unlikely to succeed, some are going to despite the odds.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by path12

Look. I appreciate your analysis. I'm not convinced by your conclusion.

But don't come around and tell me that I'm not helping myself because I could not give the slightest shit about helping myself. That is pure bullshit right there.

Fine. Then explain how these two statements do anything to exonerate Vaimes as you claim:

Originally Posted by Vaimes

God, being a Bulletproof Lover must suck.

We all knew Chief was a Warder at this point, and a lover by that fact.

Originally Posted by Vaimes

I need to be shot twice to die.

So, he has the Warder's Cloak. We all know that because we all know he stole it from Chief.

[Coffee Warlord]

By the by. Since I see you on, Raven.

Why have you had a hardon for me for like...the entire game?

[path12]

We didn't know Chief had a cloak though we might have inferred. The bulletproof lover comment refers to that.

Then later he explains explicitly. I'm alright with that. You're not. Fine.

But now that I type that out I have a question -- if Chief was wearing a Warders cloak why did he die? It must be that searches/steals happen before night kills?

[path12]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

Fine. Then explain how these two statements do anything to exonerate Vaimes as you claim:

Also, let me be very very clear. I am not exonerating anyone. What I said is that I feel better about Vaimes.

[Raven]

Because your reactions to the whole Grover situation, since Day 1, seem contrived and misleading.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by path12

What it changes, for me, is that it is not information he needed to share but did unprompted.

If I were a wolf and killed a guy and got an item that would help protect me, my instinct would not be to tell everyone about it. Maybe he is cleverer than I, though I've never played a game with him before clearly he's not a novice.

And the fact that I have search abilities, and Grover said he did makes me think that at least the Illians are all searching, and clearly the Aiel have some sort of search ability and generally there is probably a lot of searching going on at night -- that is hinted but not spelled out in the ruleset but I think is an easy jump to make. So yeah, though any one search is unlikely to succeed, some are going to despite the odds.

I am Aiel. Vaimes has admitted to being Aiel. That means I know EXACTLY what ability he has: a one time per game, one target (not item) opportunity to steal something if that target actually has an item. We have no ability to know whether the target has an item or not ahead of time (unless someone told us). Point remains that our ability is very likely to fail. It's insanely unlikely that it would a) succeed AND b) succeed on someone about to be NK'd (which is the last chance to target them with the ability).

His admission of targeting Chief was a mistake. No reason to do it whether he's Light or Dark. Given what was going on, it's the kind of mistake that could be stumbled into by a noob. And one that can only mean he's Dark. There is virtually no other conclusion to draw from his action.

[Vaimes]

"There is no other conclusion to draw."

Gee, that sounds awfully similar to "we have no choice" when everyone was lynching Grover.

Hang on, I need a computer.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by path12

We didn't know Chief had a cloak though we might have inferred. The bulletproof lover comment refers to that.

Then later he explains explicitly. I'm alright with that. You're not. Fine.

But now that I type that out I have a question -- if Chief was wearing a Warders cloak why did he die? It must be that searches/steals happen before night kills?

We did know Chief had the cloak because he was the Warder. Once Vaimes admitted he stole something from Chief, it made no sense to assume anything else (and he later confirmed that he did, in fact, steal the Cloak).

Your last point is the most important. The ONLY way Chief could have died so easily (in one night, since Vaimes has now confirmed that the Cloak means one has to be NK'd twice to die) is if someone stole the Cloak off him prior to the attempt to kill him. The only one who can do that is an Aiel. So it would take an Aiel who knew ahead of time that Chief was going to be targeted.

[path12]

Well to be fair, if steals happen before kills, it could be a steal and a kill by two different people. I am not going to surmise the likelihood of that.

Are you saying that only Aiel's can steal? I don't think that is true because if I searched the person who has the Horn I would get it, which is stealing and I am Illian.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Vaimes

"There is no other conclusion to draw."

Gee, that sounds awfully similar to "we have no choice" when everyone was lynching Grover.

Hang on, I need a computer.

Uh-huh. Because someone intervened on Grover's behalf. That could have been someone saving his bacon (a fellow Dark) or him saving his own (which turned out to be the case). In Vaimes' situation, someone who had to be a specific faction (Aiel) took a specific, one-shot action on a target (not an item...Aiel can only choose the person...Chief in this case) that not only assured that anything he had would be taken before he died (meaning the someone had to know before night actions that Chief would be NK'd) but, conveniently, was the one thing that HAD to be removed from Chief for him to die. We know 3 Aiel: Coffee Warlord burned his steal, I stole from Vaimes, Vaimes stole from Chief. Is it possible that Vaimes was lucky in choosing to steal from Chief (meaning the Dark was lucky, too, because they couldn't have NK'd Chief otherwise)? Yes. It is precisely 0.9% possible...meaning it's 99.1% certain that Vaimes knew exactly what he was doing.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by path12

Well to be fair, if steals happen before kills, it could be a steal and a kill by two different people. I am not going to surmise the likelihood of that.

Are you saying that only Aiel's can steal? I don't think that is true because if I searched the person who has the Horn I would get it, which is stealing and I am Illian.

First, why are you deflecting the fact that it was Vaimes who stole from Chief? We know that. And I've demonstrated to everyone the odds that Chief would both have an item AND be NK'd.

Second, it wasn't the Horn that was stolen. We Aiel get our ability to steal from our Code of Honor which allows us to Claim the Fifth (1/5th of the plunder from a target, but interpreted as a chance to pilfer any item a target might have). If there is any other person that the Dark would have known to instruct to steal from Chief prior to NK, please speak up.

Actually, don't. Because we know who stole from Chief and how insanely unlikely it was that Chief was also about to be NK'd.