Werewolf CXXIX - Doctor Who and his Trusty Yak - WOLVES WIN

[JAG]

I would vote J23.

[dwardzala]

Vote Lathum

For two reasons - one he's lathum and alive on Day 5 which means he's got to be a wolf.

Secondly, he wants to go to future (yeah, yeah - I want to go to future too, but I know why I want to go to future and it has nothing to do with being cunning in future or being a wolf at all)

[Darth Vilus]

what's your reasoning behind J23?

[J23]

I assure you that I would be a bad lynch JAG. Clearly not the worst, as I've said I don't have a major role, but any villager is a bad lynch right now.

I can detail the era and power I have if necessary, but don't think it would particularly help things.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

what's your reasoning behind J23?

Sure, seems like as good a time as any. Give me a sec.

[Darth Vilus]

who would you offer up then J23?

[JAG]

Really short version: I think the wolves are J23, tyketime, dubb, and Mau (cunning) and that we should travel to the future but don't want to give the main reason why. Support for most of this is below.

I did a pretty reasonable bit of scratch work for this, but considering this will be long enough, I am going to leave most of it out and submit the most important parts:

Grand "summary": *In my opinion, the worst votes for today are EF, DV, and Lathum. *Of EF/DV, it is highly unlikely both are wolves based on them voting each other separate days, it's possible that neither are or one is, but that leaves us with lower than 50% odds of getting a wolf.

0-1 wolf
EagleFan
DV

3-5 wolves (3 if cunning has been scanned, 4 if cunning not scanned or if cunning scanned + neither EF/DV are wolves, 5 if not + neither EF/DV are wolves) or 2-4 wolves if there were only 4 wolves to begin (which is where I'm currently leaning)

J23
Zinto
dubb
tyketime
Lathum

Lathum comes up unlikely to very unlikely to be a wolf in three different scenarios of others being wolves and only slightly more likely to be a wolf in one case, so he would be a risky vote today, he also came out against one of the better unknown choices. *Of the four unknowns left besides him, tyke came out against DV with quite weak reasoning and as I pointed out above, DV is likely to be a poor vote for today. *He was also subtlely against Autumn yesterday (with his comments to me suggesting Autumn was making a fantastic wolf play) though did not vote him. *dubb hasn't posted yet today, but comes out as a wolf by process of elimination when you consider that Zinto came out today contemplating J23/tyke (which is good strategy) and voted mau yesterday, who I suspect is the cunning, as outlined below:


Case for mau as cunning:

D1: If EF is good (as he's leaning), mau is the only wolf possibility
on ntn. *After he got a vote with 5 others having 1, dubb posted that he thought consolidation should occur. *mau never got another vote (nor did tyke for that matter).

D3: If Lathum is good (as he's leaning), he (and CR) are the only wolf possibilities on Autumn.

D4 (pre-reveal): 3 posts after mau got a vote from Zinto with the vote tied 2-1-1-1-1 (Autumn-EF-juggler-Lathum-mau), tyke voted juggler up to 2 votes. (also another mark against tyke) *

D4 (post-reveal): If EF and Lathum are good (as they are leaning), mau is the only possible wolf on DV. *Had a lot of vote switches at the end, possibly to try and garner suspicion to get scanned, further supported by Autumn not being NK'ed.

D5: Came out against EF+DV, likely to be a losing strategy. *


(and as an aside, what the hell is this that I have to make a case against mau two games in a row post-scanning?)

I strongly suspect the wolves are J23, tyketime, mau (cunning), and dubb (clearly I think *this list is a good place for a scan, in the unlikely event Autumn isn't NK'ed). *But the intrigue doesn't end yet for us, because:

1. The bad guys still have a possibility of doing a conversion unless we get lucky and kill *off their recruiter or somehow they don't meet whatever conditions they have to meet to be able to do their conversion.

2. mau (suspected as The Master) might have some additional unknown powers up his sleave. *

Timewise, I'm thinking it might make sense to go to the future now as
Lathum suggests. *If Autumn isn't killed tonight, he can scan tyke or dubb from the list above. *If one comes back as human, they are likely the brutal (who scans as human in the future) and we can avoid voting them for now in favor of one of the others to keep our numbers higher temporarily. *juggler posted that he apparently doesn't have a problem with leaving the Ancient era now (perhaps there was some power up benefit to spending a couple days in the Ancient time period for him) and I'm wary of there potentially being a hidden disincentive to remain in the same time period for too many days in a row, potentially evidenced by those I suspect as wolves voting to stay in the Ancient Era (either that or they're simply trying to blend in, but I don't see a reason to take that chance). *I also have another reason for wanting to go to the future, but I'm not going to lay all my cards on the table just yet.

Untime Ancient
Time Future
Vote J23

[J23]

I don't see a single thing in what you listed that gives reason for me being a wolf Jag, other than you say that you "strongly suspect" me. Did I miss something in that?

[dwardzala]

Apparently I am easily swayed

Unvote Lathum
Vote J23

[Coffee Warlord]

#759

4: J23
2: Darth Vilus
2: tyketime
1: Eaglefan
1: Zinto

[Darth Vilus]

so why j23 over mau or one of the others?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by J23

I don't see a single thing in what you listed that gives reason for me being a wolf Jag, other than you say that you "strongly suspect" me. Did I miss something in that?

Among other things I mentioned, today you have come out against the three worst statistical unknowns for catching a wolf.

[Zinto]

I am leaning to following Jag since his analysis as a villager is close to spot on and we need to get a wolf tonight. I will do this for now as I ponder everything Jag had to say.

Time Future

[J23]

Well, that's pretty ridiculous. Absolutely nothing to support your vote on me and yet people follow you.

I'm a citizen of the future era, and I still don't think it's wise to go to an era that has an extra cunning. The fact that you suggest going to the future era so you can scan a suspected wolf and then lynch them when they come up villager is pretty crazy as well. I really don't know where you're coming from in all this Jag.

[Darth Vilus]

what did you find out Zinto when you searched JAG? Anything at all interesting or reason to believe he is good? you don't have to get specific

[mauchow]

Because I am cleared. And give me a second. It should rest my case with JAG.

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by J23

Well, that's pretty ridiculous. Absolutely nothing to support your vote on me and yet people follow you.

I'm a citizen of the future era, and I still don't think it's wise to go to an era that has an extra cunning. The fact that you suggest going to the future era so you can scan a suspected wolf and then lynch them when they come up villager is pretty crazy as well. I really don't know where you're coming from in all this Jag.

i don't think he gets a scan

[mauchow]

JAG,

How was your time in the yak dung? Did you eat some of it? Hah!

[J23]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

i don't think he gets a scan

He suggested using Autumn's scan on Mau, and if he came up clean, he was the brutal. Read the last paragraph.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

so why j23 over mau or one of the others?

Going for the cunning with 3+ wolves out there is a low percentage play. For J23, his reasoning for voting EF over Autumn yesterday did not make sense and he has suggested the lowest possibility plays today. Feeding kids now, so can't elaborate more.

[Darth Vilus]

Exactly, AUTUMN'S SCAN, not his own

[J23]

Originally Posted by JAG

Among other things I mentioned, today you have come out against the three worst statistical unknowns for catching a wolf.

Maybe the other things you mentioned are what you left out of your lengthy post.

I came out against EF and I questioned Lathum still being alive, hardly a stretch. The only reason that you say they are the worst statistically unknowns is just that, because you are leaning towards good on them for some reason.

I had thought you were likely a villager, but this warped logic is really making me wonder.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

JAG,

How was your time in the yak dung? Did you eat some of it? Hah!

This proves one thing, but not why you would send something so bizarrely cryptic.

[J23]

Well, I need to leave shortly for the night. Hopefully people will actually read and consider the "evidence" brought up rather than just following blindly.

I still think EF and Lathum are both reasonable votes, and Jag is either a misguided villager or a wolf making a power play.

I'll leave my vote on EF and let the chips fall where they may. If I'm lynched, at least the group most likely won't have to figure out how to handle the weekend votes.

[JAG]

If I were a wolf, the real Companion should've come out now, so that's obviously wrong. Lathum as wolf would likely not have tried to save mckerney who would've been essentially cleared today had he survived the lynch vs. Darth who is uncleared.

[dubb93]

Gah. Been a super busy day. Getting caught up.

[J23]

Originally Posted by JAG

If I were a wolf, the real Companion should've come out now, so that's obviously wrong. Lathum as wolf would likely not have tried to save mckerney who would've been essentially cleared today had he survived the lynch vs. Darth who is uncleared.

I guess I missed the companion reveal. In that case, I urge you to re-examine why you are so bent on voting for me here Jag.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by JAG

This proves one thing, but not why you would send something so bizarrely cryptic.

i wasnt going to send anything that night but since you beat me up good last game i wanted to kinda toy with you a little. i would have sent you or anybody a more detailed post stating who i was and what i could do. the first night i had a good feeling danny was a villager so i let him know cryptically who i was. and he would have cleared me had he not died that night. you can refer to a post where i quoted him and said something that started with "good 'ol partner ...". He would have connected the dots pretty easily as i referenced the aazing race game a little.

now everyone knows my role. i can pm someone anonymously when in the modern era only. my time vote also counts as 2 in the modern era.

good enough? scratch me off as cunning.

typed this one handed while feeding baby.

[Lathum]

J23, why exactly do you suspect me other than the fact I am still alive?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by JAG

Really short version: I think the wolves are J23, tyketime, dubb, and Mau (cunning) and that we should travel to the future but don't want to give the main reason why. Support for most of this is below.

I did a pretty reasonable bit of scratch work for this, but considering this will be long enough, I am going to leave most of it out and submit the most important parts:

Grand "summary": *In my opinion, the worst votes for today are EF, DV, and Lathum. *Of EF/DV, it is highly unlikely both are wolves based on them voting each other separate days, it's possible that neither are or one is, but that leaves us with lower than 50% odds of getting a wolf.

0-1 wolf
EagleFan
DV

3-5 wolves (3 if cunning has been scanned, 4 if cunning not scanned or if cunning scanned + neither EF/DV are wolves, 5 if not + neither EF/DV are wolves) or 2-4 wolves if there were only 4 wolves to begin (which is where I'm currently leaning)

J23
Zinto
dubb
tyketime
Lathum

Lathum comes up unlikely to very unlikely to be a wolf in three different scenarios of others being wolves and only slightly more likely to be a wolf in one case, so he would be a risky vote today, he also came out against one of the better unknown choices. *Of the four unknowns left besides him, tyke came out against DV with quite weak reasoning and as I pointed out above, DV is likely to be a poor vote for today. *He was also subtlely against Autumn yesterday (with his comments to me suggesting Autumn was making a fantastic wolf play) though did not vote him. *dubb hasn't posted yet today, but comes out as a wolf by process of elimination when you consider that Zinto came out today contemplating J23/tyke (which is good strategy) and voted mau yesterday, who I suspect is the cunning, as outlined below:


Case for mau as cunning:

D1: If EF is good (as he's leaning), mau is the only wolf possibility
on ntn. *After he got a vote with 5 others having 1, dubb posted that he thought consolidation should occur. *mau never got another vote (nor did tyke for that matter).

D3: If Lathum is good (as he's leaning), he (and CR) are the only wolf possibilities on Autumn.

D4 (pre-reveal): 3 posts after mau got a vote from Zinto with the vote tied 2-1-1-1-1 (Autumn-EF-juggler-Lathum-mau), tyke voted juggler up to 2 votes. (also another mark against tyke) *

D4 (post-reveal): If EF and Lathum are good (as they are leaning), mau is the only possible wolf on DV. *Had a lot of vote switches at the end, possibly to try and garner suspicion to get scanned, further supported by Autumn not being NK'ed.

D5: Came out against EF+DV, likely to be a losing strategy. *


(and as an aside, what the hell is this that I have to make a case against mau two games in a row post-scanning?)

I strongly suspect the wolves are J23, tyketime, mau (cunning), and dubb (clearly I think *this list is a good place for a scan, in the unlikely event Autumn isn't NK'ed). *But the intrigue doesn't end yet for us, because:

1. The bad guys still have a possibility of doing a conversion unless we get lucky and kill *off their recruiter or somehow they don't meet whatever conditions they have to meet to be able to do their conversion.

2. mau (suspected as The Master) might have some additional unknown powers up his sleave. *

Timewise, I'm thinking it might make sense to go to the future now as
Lathum suggests. *If Autumn isn't killed tonight, he can scan tyke or dubb from the list above. *If one comes back as human, they are likely the brutal (who scans as human in the future) and we can avoid voting them for now in favor of one of the others to keep our numbers higher temporarily. *juggler posted that he apparently doesn't have a problem with leaving the Ancient era now (perhaps there was some power up benefit to spending a couple days in the Ancient time period for him) and I'm wary of there potentially being a hidden disincentive to remain in the same time period for too many days in a row, potentially evidenced by those I suspect as wolves voting to stay in the Ancient Era (either that or they're simply trying to blend in, but I don't see a reason to take that chance). *I also have another reason for wanting to go to the future, but I'm not going to lay all my cards on the table just yet.

Untime Ancient
Time Future
Vote J23

I have been playing this game long enough to know that anytime a player gets an idea and thinks he can name all of the wolves they are always wrong. I like the analysis but I know you are barking up the wrong tree with me atleast. That alone makes it hard for me to swallow all of this.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Lathum

J23, why exactly do you suspect me other than the fact I am still alive?

I feel like you're not playing as your usual self since day2. That's what makes me suspicious, even more so than you still being alive.

[JAG]

Alrighty Mau, I do believe you, but we're gonna have a chat after the game about this. . In that case, I do have to reconsider some stuff, though that makes me feel pretty good that we have not yet scanned the cunning.

[Autumn]

I'm still digesting JAG's post, and some of the reveals. But without anyone countering his companion claim, I trust JAG enough to send the Tardis where he wishes.

unvote time ancient
time future

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

Alrighty Mau, I do believe you, but we're gonna have a chat after the game about this. . In that case, I do have to reconsider some stuff, though that makes me feel pretty good that we have not yet scanned the cunning.

When you reference the cunning, are you referencing the Master? Because Dwardzala could also be the Cyberman cunning.

[dubb93]

While I don't agree with the analysis I am willing to follow a villager and allow him to go somewhere where he says he gets an increase in powers. Off to the Jetson age it is.

Time Future

[Zinto]

Honestly if JAG is wrong then good game wolves. I am willing to lay my chips on the table and follow him though.

unvote tyke
vote j23

[dubb93]

I will probably be in and out the rest of the night but I am going to avoid J23 just becuase I'm not a fan of JAG's logic. I think Lathum is a better candidate today. If he is still around there is a reason. We haven't been given a good reason yet so I think there is a good chance he could be a wolf.

Vote Lathum

[Zinto]

Also I am going to be in class till the deadline so I will try and keep up with things but I can make no promises

[J23]

Good game then wolves. I'm out for the night, and it looks like for the game. I hope the village can somehow pull this one out.

unvote EF
vote Zinto

Putting out the only defensive vote that I think has a chance of gaining traction.

[Autumn]

Some things that stink: giving "Lathum's still alive" as the only reasoning for a vote. Lathum would clearly be alive either way - he's been the target of a lot of voting talk, isn't cleared, and there's no reason at all the wolves would kill him.

Other things that smell fishy - having four or five people with votes already, and then having people vote someone else. Dubb doesn't want to vote J23, and therefore votes someone new? He's not the first one to do it either today. When the block held Darth, J23 and tyketime, J23, Darth, Dwardzala and now Dubb voted for a fourth or fifth person. Especially odd given that J23 and Darth had plenty of reason to want to vote one of the other two.

[Autumn]

Now J23 moves to Zinto, with one vote, rather than Darth or Tyke each of whom already have two.

[Coffee Warlord]

#790
5: J23
2: Darth Vilus
2: Zinto
1: tyketime
1: Lathum

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Autumn

When you reference the cunning, are you referencing the Master? Because Dwardzala could also be the Cyberman cunning.

I meant the Master. Dward could be the other cunning but his voting pattern does not suggest it to me so I don't think it's worth considering yet.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Some things that stink: giving "Lathum's still alive" as the only reasoning for a vote. Lathum would clearly be alive either way - he's been the target of a lot of voting talk, isn't cleared, and there's no reason at all the wolves would kill him.

Other things that smell fishy - having four or five people with votes already, and then having people vote someone else. Dubb doesn't want to vote J23, and therefore votes someone new? He's not the first one to do it either today. When the block held Darth, J23 and tyketime, J23, Darth, Dwardzala and now Dubb voted for a fourth or fifth person. Especially odd given that J23 and Darth had plenty of reason to want to vote one of the other two.

I agree it may look odd, but I have a feeling. I can't really justify that feeling in a logical way. Today I'm voting with my gut. Logic hasn't worked so far for me so I'm going with my gut today. Lathum has just struck me as a wolf.

And you have to keep in mind all of the "logic" behind voting J23 today stems from JAG who in the same post announced he has found all of the wolves and I am one of them. Excuse me for not jumping on the "I must be a wolf" train and voting J23.

[Autumn]

So we have Darth claiming to be a medieval citizen with a power to follow someone. Zinto claims he's a medieval citizen with the ability to search for a role.

In addition Mauboy claims to be a modern citizen with the ability to send messages in the modern era. Time to compile these I think.

[mauchow]

unvote darth
vote eaglefan

Kind of a throw away vote but I reserve the right to change it again. I liked him last night but he was not a favorite, I'll go this route tonight and watch the last 40 minutes unfold and make a different move if necessary.

Votes I won't mind casting tonight: J23, EF, lathum or tyke.

[Coffee Warlord]

#796

5: J23
1: Darth Vilus
2: Zinto
1: tyketime
1: Lathum
1: EagleFan

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by dwardzala

Vote Lathum

For two reasons - one he's lathum and alive on Day 5 which means he's got to be a wolf.

Secondly, he wants to go to future (yeah, yeah - I want to go to future too, but I know why I want to go to future and it has nothing to do with being cunning in future or being a wolf at all)

Dwardzala, are you hinting that you're a citizen of the future?

[dwardzala]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Dwardzala, are you hinting that you're a citizen of the future?

Correct.

[EagleFan]

Back, will read over the thread to see what I missed.