2012 Presidential Campaign

[JPhillips]

Probably, but not nearly at the level of the rest of the GOP field.

[RainMaker]

I'm still blown away by the fact that Romeny is going to win this thing. The GOP spent a year trashing Obamacare and then turn around to elect the guy who created it.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Probably, but not nearly at the level of the rest of the GOP field.

Oh, we don't disagree there. Love him or hate him, or a little from both, the man sticks to his guns.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I'm still blown away by the fact that Romeny is going to win this thing. The GOP spent a year trashing Obamacare and then turn around to elect the guy who created it.

Shows you just how horrible the field is.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Y'know, I'm at least starting to wonder if Herman might have at least a slight chance. He's certainly coming across as more viable than I expected.

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I tend to think that the people posting so far in this thread are underestimating Cain's chances. I'm not sure about his staying power and who might throw a hat into the ring later on, but I suspect that at some point he will be the "#1 contender," for whatever that's worth.

Originally Posted by miked

I can't believe people thought Herman Cain would be the darkhorse. I know you can energize your base by saying you don't trust Muslims and will force them to take loyalty oaths on the rare chance you hire one...but that doesn't really sound like somebody people will comfortable with as president.

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

"Uh, Mike." At the time I said that, Cain hadn't made any of those comments. He's a very bright guy, and I, for one, thought he was bright enough to steer clear of making statements like that. I hold to my contention that if he had stuck with his original message, he would be faring much better than he is.

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Before his comment(s) about Muslims in the cabinet really started getting national press (early/mid June best I can tell from Googling) RCP had him at somewhere in the 7% of primary voters range. Less than a month later he peaked at just over 10%. He's settling right back just under 7% again.
Even with the lag inherent to the RCP cumulative polling data method, there wasn't much indication that it hurt him with primary voters & if anything enhanced his standing.

Too early for me to be comfortable making a call on how much his recent backtracking will hurt him, that timeframe hasn't even shown up in most polls yet & his decline seems to more be attributable to surges by other candidates taking support from him rather than him losing it on his own.

Humpty Bumpty.

[Crapshoot]

I will gladly bet a $1,000 that Herman Cain is the not the GOP nominee.

[lungs]

Trying to figure out what my dad sees in Herman Cain when in one sentence he was talking about how he agrees with a lot of what the Occupy Wall Street protesters say and the next sentence says he might vote for Herman Cain?

Umm.... dad, did you see what Cain said about occupy wall street?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by lungs

Trying to figure out what my dad sees in Herman Cain when in one sentence he was talking about how he agrees with a lot of what the Occupy Wall Street protesters say and the next sentence says he might vote for Herman Cain?

Umm.... dad, did you see what Cain said about occupy wall street?

I have a student that today told me her two top choices for President are Hillary and Donald Trump. I told her it was impossible to be a supporter of both of them.

[Crapshoot]

I knew the idiot buddies who said they were fans of Obama or Ron Paul in 2008. Its not logically coherent, but it didn't stop them.

[stevew]

9/9/9 means there is a 11% chance Cain gets the nom.

[bronconick]

I've got a friend here from Canada (might still be a citizen, for all I know) where last year, she was 100% against the Conservatives up there (all sorts of anti-Stephen Harper stuff,etc.) , but down here, is for Ron Paul in particular and the Republicans in general.

I cannot find a way to rectify those positions.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

I knew the idiot buddies who said they were fans of Obama or Ron Paul in 2008. Its not logically coherent, but it didn't stop them.

I don't know that I agree with that at all. Somehow the two parties have convinced people that you have to be either socially conservative and economically conservative or liberal on both cases. Why can't somebody fall outside that paradigm?

I would agree that Obama never really lived up to the anti-war rhetoric of his campaign but I could see someone at the time being very anti-war and pro-personal freedom that didn't care that much about the economic side being a fan of both. The two parties really aren't any different on that point anyways.

I voted for Bob Barr but thought at the time that Obama would come through on the war cutback and getting rid of the patriot act.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by bronconick

I've got a friend here from Canada (might still be a citizen, for all I know) where last year, she was 100% against the Conservatives up there (all sorts of anti-Stephen Harper stuff,etc.) , but down here, is for Ron Paul in particular and the Republicans in general.

I cannot find a way to rectify those positions.

Stephen Harper is a big government, pro-war guy who hides under the conservative label. Why would being a fan of Ron Paul be inconsistant at all?

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by stevew

9/9/9 means there is a 11% chance Cain gets the nom.

Also known as...if the 11% or so percent of people who actually profit from his plan all decide to vote, and the remaining 90% stay at home.

[Ben E Lou]

To clarify what I said back then, and still believe now: I doubt he'll get the nomination. I was just saying that I figured he had a shot at leading in the polls, and sure enough, we're there now, at least in some. I still don't think he'll get the nomination. The 9-9-9 plan will never become law, but it'll make him $9,999,999 or more in additional income when he hits the speaking circuit, writes another book, and/or gets a FAT talk show deal after this run is all said and done. I suspect that running for President will have been an enormously profitable move for him when all is said and done.

[kcchief19]

Originally Posted by kcchief19

That said, I agree with Ben and JiMGA ... I think Cain will see a serious bump in the next few months, maybe even crack into the top tier. But I think as people get to know more about him, the less they will like. The businessman-politician will start to look like a real politician.

From May, and I still stand by it. The bump took longer to get than I expected, but his debate performance and the 9/9/9 plan is finally generating heat.

I stand by the last two sentences as well. So far, voters are finally seeing the surface and like what they see. Once the media starts doing the math on his tax plan, voters learn his ties to the Koch brothers and learn his complete disdain for foreign policy, the luster will fade.

Still have no idea who the nominee will be, but Romney is right where he wants to be. In the 2008 cycle, Giuliani had a commanding lead in the polls into late November and was still neck-and neck with Romney in December. McCain didn't finally start emerging to the top until late December and by Feb. 1 the race was over.

[JPhillips]

Cain's fascinating because he's barely trying to campaign. At least half the days in October were listed as free and he isn't fundraising. He apparently has done little to build infrastructure in the early primary states and I think I saw it's been over two months since he's been to Iowa.

He's doing everything wrong, but in this field he's currently the not-Romney.

[SirFozzie]

I'm actually shocked that this review of the 9-9-9 plan hasn't atom-bombed Cain's chances

The Cain 9-9-9 Plan: How Much Would the 99% Pay - The Curious Capitalist - TIME.com

A friend of mine joked that the current republican party "is a bunch of middle class and lower middle class people being led by nose rings into claiming that the rich people pay too much taxes"

[molson]

Do presidents get to impose tax plans? What's Obama going to impose his?

But anyway, it's kind of strange to me in the facebook/social networking/internet age candidates are so dependent on established political parties. You don't need parties to reach the people anymore. Down the road a bit, when some of the older established people die out - does anyone see the possibility of a social networking candidate or candidates?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by molson

Do presidents get to impose tax plans? What's Obama going to impose his?

But anyway, it's kind of strange to me in the facebook/social networking/internet age candidates are so dependent on established political parties. You don't need parties to reach the people anymore. Down the road a bit, when some of the older established people die out - does anyone see the possibility of a social networking candidate or candidates?

At this stage you do need parties for organization. GOTV operations are time consuming and expensive and you just can't put together a strong operation without previous infrastructure.

[molson]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

At this stage you do need parties for organization. GOTV operations are time consuming and expensive and you just can't put together a strong operation without previous infrastructure.

I guess, I just wonder why you need organization, GOTV operations, and infrastructure. Most people know about candidates through news clips, internet news and comments/message board posts, and social media. Dominate the third and can't you eventually get the first and second?

Edit: Anyway, I'm talking 20 years down the roadish, or longer.

[JPhillips]

Turnout makes the difference in a close election. Get .5% more of your voters to the polls and it might make the difference. You need voter lists, transportation, callers, poll watchers, etc. It's a very labor intensive operation that the parties can develop and fund from year to year.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

in this field he's currently the not-Romney.

And that's the only thing that I can find that would really account for his recent surge. Among my friends, the folks most enamored with him seem to be the ones that, well, let's say they aren't particularly notable taxpayers in the first place. Oddly, the most common shared priority (among my friends who are beating the Cain drum) seems to be that they're staunchly pro-Israel ... leaving me to wonder if I missed a Cain memo or something.

(note: they aren't making any particular connection between Cain & that subject, I'm just saying that's probably what I identify these friends most closely with politically, along with some general anti-government rants & the occasional social conservative position)

In some ways, I'm even more puzzled by his abrupt rise than I was by Palin's base of support.

[Coffee Warlord]

Every time Michelle Bachmann speaks I wanna punch her in the face.

[Ben E Lou]

Sheesh. Perry just made a complete ass of himself there on immigration. Has he just given up?

[Coffee Warlord]

I tuned in about 15, 20 minutes ago. Perry has just come off like a total asshole the entire time.

[Coffee Warlord]

Heh. I think hell just froze over. Romney & Perry agree with Ron Paul.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I tuned in about 15, 20 minutes ago. Perry has just come off like a total asshole the entire time.

Heh. OK, so it wasn't just me then. Since posting that comment, several FB friends have said the same thing one way or another.

[SirFozzie]

Am I the only one who got a kick out of Perry channeling Hulk Hogan and calling Herman Cain "brother" twice when discussing the 999 plan?

Here's my full thoughts:

Was that a presidential debate or a Jerry Springer episode?

Thoughts:

Is Mitt Romney going to have to choke a Rick Perry?

Perry calls Cain "brother" twice. I can't tell if Perry was actually thinking that Cain was actually his brotha from another motha, was trying to belittle Cain, or was just channeling the spirit of Hulk Hogan.
No, seriously, Mitt looked like he wanted to dribble Perry like a basketball and then kick him like a football.

Ron Paul is Ron Paul. Give him credit, his answer about the OWSers is not going to earn him any new voters, but he's consistent. Too bad he's still Ron Paul. He's like Romney. He has his niche, and can't rise above it.

Are we SURE that one of these people HAVE to be the Republican Nominee? Can't we pull a Brewster's Millions and make "None of the Above" the candidate? I'm pretty sure NotA would poll rather well against Obama in a two way vote.

[RainMaker]

I think it was a hailmary attempt by Perry. Hoping that whatever he did would be a big hit. I know it didn't work, but he had to try something. His campaign was dead in the water.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Are we SURE that one of these people HAVE to be the Republican Nominee? Can't we pull a Brewster's Millions and make "None of the Above" the candidate? I'm pretty sure NotA would poll rather well against Obama in a two way vote.

Actually I'm quite certain none of the above would blow away Obama and the Republican candidate in a three way race.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by panerd

Actually I'm quite certain none of the above would blow away Obama and the Republican candidate in a three way race.

I think the quickest fix for our government would be to include none of the above on the ballot and if it wins, everyone on the ballot is forbidden from running again. We could probably clean out about 90% of Congress that way.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by panerd

Actually I'm quite certain none of the above would blow away Obama and the Republican candidate in a three way race.

Hmm ... I don't know about that. I think both sides would have a pretty fair contingent who hesitated to do that in the hopes of squeaking out some kind of 33.4% win over NOTA.

The really complicated part would be handling the electoral votes

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by bronconick

I think the quickest fix for our government would be to include none of the above on the ballot and if it wins, everyone on the ballot is forbidden from running again. We could probably clean out about 90% of Congress that way.

btw, this the quickest way to disaster - its why term limits are problematic. Impose them, and the only people who win are the lobbyists who are the only ones who know how the system works - and new congressmen are putty in their hands.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by lungs

Trying to figure out what my dad sees in Herman Cain when in one sentence he was talking about how he agrees with a lot of what the Occupy Wall Street protesters say and the next sentence says he might vote for Herman Cain?

Umm.... dad, did you see what Cain said about occupy wall street?

So my dad watched the debate last night and now proclaims himself a Paulite

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

btw, this the quickest way to disaster - its why term limits are problematic. Impose them, and the only people who win are the lobbyists who are the only ones who know how the system works - and new congressmen are putty in their hands.

Agreed. And the best example of this is when the GOP finally got rid of corrupt entrenched Dem Congressman Dan Rostenkowski, the Dem that eventually took over was none other than Rod Blagojevich. There is no shortage of corrupt politicians and I bet many of the corrupt ones would beat None of the Above, while the honest politicians who tell the public the truth (aka what the public doesn't want to hear) would lose to NOTA.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

btw, this the quickest way to disaster - its why term limits are problematic. Impose them, and the only people who win are the lobbyists who are the only ones who know how the system works - and new congressmen are putty in their hands.

And that's different from now how?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by bronconick

I think the quickest fix for our government would be to include none of the above on the ballot and if it wins, everyone on the ballot is forbidden from running again. We could probably clean out about 90% of Congress that way.

I can see the candidates' campaign signs now.

"Candidate X--Better Than Nobody"

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

btw, this the quickest way to disaster - its why term limits are problematic. Impose them, and the only people who win are the lobbyists who are the only ones who know how the system works - and new congressmen are putty in their hands.

No, because term limits would involve new people coming in. I want Washington vacant and shut down until both parties remove their heads from their asses. Belgium's gone like two years without a federal government now. Can't be that hard.

[Ben E Lou]

Although it seems that nothing good is going to come out of this Presidential Election cycle, there's at least this: I bought SimCity 4 Deluxe Edition for $9.99 last night. Thanks, Herman!

[albionmoonlight]

This might hurt Cain a bit unless he can walk it back: He seems to have given a pretty pro-choice answer to an abortion question:

http://youtu.be/B8WmqiOiUdc

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Although it seems that nothing good is going to come out of this Presidential Election cycle, there's at least this: I bought SimCity 4 Deluxe Edition for $9.99 last night. Thanks, Herman!

For the full effect, set your commercial, residential, and industrial taxes all to 9/9/9.

[SackAttack]

I think that's the default setting, CW.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

This might hurt Cain a bit unless he can walk it back: He seems to have given a pretty pro-choice answer to an abortion question:

http://youtu.be/B8WmqiOiUdc

I like his answer a lot actually.

[ISiddiqui]

So at trivia tonight the final question was name the 7 candidates in the debate in Nevada - I completely forgot about Santorum. Why exactly is he still running?

[RPI-Fan]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

So at trivia tonight the final question was name the 7 candidates in the debate in Nevada - I completely forgot about Santorum. Why exactly is he still running?

That must be (by far) the easiest trivia final question I have ever heard of. Was it some sort of "Teen Jeopardy" style version of trivia?

[RPI-Fan]

Here's a great blog post by a friend of mine explaining (in plain English) why Herman Cain's tax plan is so idiotic.

TONIGHT'S FORECAST: DARK: TFD Opinions: Herman Cain's 909 Plan is Even Worse Than the 999 Plan

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I like his answer a lot actually.

I like it too, although am not necessarily pro-life. But I don't think the government should be making decisions like this for people. He is getting hit hard over it though. Not enough shaming of women and gays for guys like Santorum's liking.

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by RPI-Fan

Here's a great blog post by a friend of mine explaining (in plain English) why Herman Cain's tax plan is so idiotic.

TONIGHT'S FORECAST: DARK: TFD Opinions: Herman Cain's 909 Plan is Even Worse Than the 999 Plan

I think Herman Cain is stupid for changing the 999 plan around but I suspect its because there doesn't seem to be widespread agreement that the price of items will go down enough to compensate for the income tax raised on the lowest income group. Or...going down enough, fast enough, anyway. If I were him, I would have revised it to be phased into the 999 approach over time (or something like that).

I actually think that type of concept is where we need to get to. It probably isn't his plan but I do think having everybody paying into a system puts more eyeballs on that system. So even if you started taxing low income people just enough to compensate for the lower price by removing tax from the cost of the good they purchased...I think that's a net positive for the country. And I do like another big concept of his plan...put the cost of REAL taxes on the table so the general public can see them rather than regulating an industry selectively (i.e. which side of the industry lines the right pockets) and obfuscating the costs of items.

Having said all that...even if the guy were president...none of this crap would get passed.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by SteveMax58

I think Herman Cain is stupid for changing the 999 plan around but I suspect its because there doesn't seem to be widespread agreement that the price of items will go down enough to compensate for the income tax raised on the lowest income group. Or...going down enough, fast enough, anyway. If I were him, I would have revised it to be phased into the 999 approach over time (or something like that).

I actually think that type of concept is where we need to get to. It probably isn't his plan but I do think having everybody paying into a system puts more eyeballs on that system. So even if you started taxing low income people just enough to compensate for the lower price by removing tax from the cost of the good they purchased...I think that's a net positive for the country. And I do like another big concept of his plan...put the cost of REAL taxes on the table so the general public can see them rather than regulating an industry selectively (i.e. which side of the industry lines the right pockets) and obfuscating the costs of items.

Having said all that...even if the guy were president...none of this crap would get passed.

Ladies and gentlemen, your GOP frontrunner.