2014 OFFICIAL NCAA Tournament Thread: Connecticut wins the title

[mauchow]

Well, all righty then. Time to watch Walking Dead as there is no basketball games to watch tonight. #1 seeds taking care of business.

[Ragone]

Heh announcers have confused Michigan and Michigan state..

[ColtCrazy]

I can't tell you how thankful I am that I'm in New Mexico for a conference and no where near home to listen to the Kentucky/Louisville hype. So rooting for WSU to have beaten the Wildcats. Their fan base will be burrowing out of the woodwork now. My only regret is not buying some MW regional tickets to scalp to the hordes that will descend upon Indy next week.
Guess this Hoosier fan is a Michigan fan for a bit.

[JonInMiddleGA]

How bad must other ESPN brackets be when I've only got 8 teams left (and only 2 of my Final 4) and I'm in the 89th percentile?

Meanwhile -- at the risk of jinxing things of course -- I went 28-4 in the first round of the women's bracket, am in the top 2000 on ESPN. There's also still 1 perfect bracket remaining there, an entry from Spain.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by B & B

SEC is gonna have 3 Sweet 16 teams.


Tenn as an 11 seed is asinine.

Originally Posted by panerd

And it's impossible to debate the narrative if you think the SEC only has 2.5 good teams. One it isn't true and two I have heard talking heads use 2.5 so I think I see where your SEC info is coming from.

Don't forget I live in St. Louis so I can see how teams can inflate their records with the Duquesnes, Fordhams, and St Bonoventures of the world.

Originally Posted by mauchow

Vegas will probably have the Michigan/Tennessee game as a toss-up next week, if that isn't proof of being well over-seeded..... They probably should have been a 6 or 7.

Tennessee is beloved by the more advanced computer models because when they win, they win big, but they also had a fair number of bad losses (UTEP, Vanderbilt, A&M twice). I had Tennessee beating UMass and going to the Elite 8, but I don't think they were underseeded based on the criteria the committee uses (basically not taking MoV into account). I believe strongly that seeding should be based on how teams performed, not how good you think they are - you can always play yourself out of a "bad" seed - and if the SEC wanted more teams in, they should've done better OOC. To use just the one conference as a comparison, they were 2-5 against the A10, including a loss by an SEC bubble team (LSU) to an A10 bottom feeder (Rhode Island).

Using Tennessee and their success to argue that the rest of the conference is good makes no sense to me. They're #6 in KenPom while Missouri - the only other SEC team in the RPI top 65, and someone who did have a decent case for an at-large berth - is 74th, behind Georgetown, and Miami, and West Virginia, and Indiana.

[MrBug708]

Well, Alford finally made it back to the S16

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

How bad must other ESPN brackets be when I've only got 8 teams left (and only 2 of my Final 4) and I'm in the 89th percentile?

Meanwhile -- at the risk of jinxing things of course -- I went 28-4 in the first round of the women's bracket, am in the top 2000 on ESPN. There's also still 1 perfect bracket remaining there, an entry from Spain.

I asked my son the same question. He had lost 2 of Elite 8 and I think 7 games overall but he's at 98.6%. He told that me his alternate bracket has 2 more losses and that knocked him down to the 70s. I guess it's a bell curve with the difference 1 loss being significant.

[Logan]

Enjoyed this one.

Future NBA stars don't need their college coaches - SBNation.com

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Logan

Enjoyed this one.

Future NBA stars don't need their college coaches - SBNation.com

I can't speak to Syracuse but the Kansas angle is a load of crap (well, Self's schemes can certainly leave something to be desired but that's neither here nor there). Self has never said anything about Wiggins or Embiid staying in school and I'm almost certain both will declare just like Xavier Henry, Josh Selby, and Ben McLemore before them. Selden might go, but, I can't see him getting drafted as high as he was projected before the season

Self has been on record as saying it should be 0 years or 3 years like baseball, which, frankly, is in the NCAA's best interest but probably not the NBA unless they want to bulk up the NBADL, but I have yet to see him hold back any players from going early.

SI

[Arles]

I liked Tennessee and had them winning the play in and against UMASS in my bracket, but I can't see how their resume for the full season was that much better than the #10s. Here are 5 teams:

Team 1: RPI 35, 6-5 vs top 50 RPI, 10-8 vs top 100, 13-8 vs top 150
Team 2: RPI 32, 3-6 vs top 50, 8-7 vs top 100, 11-8 vs top 150
Team 3: RPI 40, 5-9 vs top 50, 7-10 vs top 100, 12-12 vs top 150
Team 4: RPI 41, 3-7 vs top 50, 7-9 vs top 100, 13-12 vs top 150
Team 5: RPI 44, 4-7 vs top 50, 8-8 vs top 100, 12-11 vs top 150

Team 4 was Tennessee and the rest were the 10 seeds. Is it really a travesty to have them as an 11 and team 5 (Arizona State) a 10? Remember, Tennessee had two wins all season against tournament teams (home against RPI 9 Virginia and home against 48 Xavier). All these other teams had atleast 4. Even ASU, the one you could argue with, had wins over Arizona (2), Oregon (28), Colorado (31) and Stanford (40).

[molson]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I can't speak to Syracuse but the Kansas angle is a load of crap (well, Self's schemes can certainly leave something to be desired but that's neither here nor there). Self has never said anything about Wiggins or Embiid staying in school and I'm almost certain both will declare just like Xavier Henry, Josh Selby, and Ben McLemore before them. Selden might go, but, I can't see him getting drafted as high as he was projected before the season

Self has been on record as saying it should be 0 years or 3 years like baseball, which, frankly, is in the NCAA's best interest but probably not the NBA unless they want to bulk up the NBADL, but I have yet to see him hold back any players from going early.

SI

I think when Boeheim said you need to be in the top 10 picks to make sure you're going to play in the NBA, he didn't literally mean that everyone outside of the top 10 is entirely out of the league in 3 years. He just meant that if you're missing a piece or two talent-wise, you can be cast aside into irrelevance pretty quickly. Which is true, and sounds like a decent advice to college stars who think they're automatically going to be big NBA stars because they're picked in the first round. But depending on your financial situation and your goals, maybe guaranteeing that one rookie contract is enough to make the jump worth it, even if you're not a top pick.

(If Boeheim is really "lying" to his players to get them to stay longer, he's not doing a very good job...he's had a lot of marginal talent guys that looked great in his system but then flamed out quickly in the NBA after jumping early....I actually can't think of the last 1st-round talent guy that stayed in Syracuse any longer than he needed to if the goal was getting picked in the first round).

Edit: And while Boeheim, like most coaches, aren't a fan of the obvious one-and-dones, when that's part of the system, isn't that good for recruiting to have those guys? What's better for Syracuse recruiting, having 3 freshman guards get picked in the first round in 5 years, or to have one CJ Fair type for 4-years? Big talent coming out of high school want to go to a school that will put them in the NBA fast.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Arles

I liked Tennessee and had them winning the play in and against UMASS in my bracket, but I can't see how their resume for the full season was that much better than the #10s. Here are 5 teams:

Team 1: RPI 35, 6-5 vs top 50 RPI, 10-8 vs top 100, 13-8 vs top 150
Team 2: RPI 32, 3-6 vs top 50, 8-7 vs top 100, 11-8 vs top 150
Team 3: RPI 40, 5-9 vs top 50, 7-10 vs top 100, 12-12 vs top 150
Team 4: RPI 41, 3-7 vs top 50, 7-9 vs top 100, 13-12 vs top 150
Team 5: RPI 44, 4-7 vs top 50, 8-8 vs top 100, 12-11 vs top 150

Team 4 was Tennessee and the rest were the 10 seeds. Is it really a travesty to have them as an 11 and team 5 (Arizona State) a 10? Remember, Tennessee had two wins all season against tournament teams (home against RPI 9 Virginia and home against 48 Xavier). All these other teams had atleast 4. Even ASU, the one you could argue with, had wins over Arizona (2), Oregon (28), Colorado (31) and Stanford (40).

Computer models put a cap on margin of victory, at least kenpom said he did this year. He also said that he input them for prior seasons and it didnt have any drastic changes. Tennessee is highly rated because they don't have any poor losses. Yes they lost to a&m and Vandy but they weren't bad losses.

Tennessee was 13-10 against kenpom top 100. I don't know who your other teams are otherwise I'd look em up.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by mauchow

Computer models put a cap on margin of victory, at least kenpom said he did this year. He also said that he input them for prior seasons and it didnt have any drastic changes. Tennessee is highly rated because they don't have any poor losses. Yes they lost to a&m and Vandy but they weren't bad losses.

Tennessee was 13-10 against kenpom top 100. I don't know who your other teams are otherwise I'd look em up.

Arizona State and Stanford didn't have any sub RPI 150 losses either. However, they had very good wins. I already went through Arizona State, but Stanford had a road win @UCONN, a road win @Oregon, two wins against Arizona State and a win against UCLA. To me, Arizona State and Stanford's resume are both better than Tennessee. The Vols only had two wins against tourney teams - I don't see a team with that resume getting a top 9 seed. While it's great they beatup on Vandy (but lost on the road), Auburn, Alabama and Miss State - but these are Marginal to bad teams. Miss State ranked 246 in RPI. They got swept by a below average A&M team who ranked 146 in RPI, split with Xavier and Missouri and lost to every other top 50 team they played save Virginia.

On the eye test, they are a top 5 seed, but their resume was terrible. I just don't see a rational argument to put them over a team like Stanford. They had two road wins in the top 200 (LSU and Alabama) and three wins against top 75 teams (and split with two of those teams) - none on the road. Stanford had 6 wins against teams in the top 75 and three were on the road.

[Matthean]

ESPN's reseeding of the teams.

Reseeding the Sweet 16 of the men's NCAA basketball tournament field - ESPN

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Arles

Arizona State and Stanford didn't have any sub RPI 150 losses either. However, they had very good wins. I already went through Arizona State, but Stanford had a road win @UCONN, a road win @Oregon, two wins against Arizona State and a win against UCLA. To me, Arizona State and Stanford's resume are both better than Tennessee. The Vols only had two wins against tourney teams - I don't see a team with that resume getting a top 9 seed. While it's great they beatup on Vandy (but lost on the road), Auburn, Alabama and Miss State - but these are Marginal to bad teams. Miss State ranked 246 in RPI. They got swept by a below average A&M team who ranked 146 in RPI, split with Xavier and Missouri and lost to every other top 50 team they played save Virginia.

On the eye test, they are a top 5 seed, but their resume was terrible. I just don't see a rational argument to put them over a team like Stanford. They had two road wins in the top 200 (LSU and Alabama) and three wins against top 75 teams (and split with two of those teams) - none on the road. Stanford had 6 wins against teams in the top 75 and three were on the road.

yeah, If you beat the computer models prediction of what the outcome should be then you're going to improve your positioning. I don't have time to study what all the teams did with their schedules.

They're all interesting case studies. I will, however, trust what Vegas spits out more than RPI.

[Arles]

The problem becomes in understanding how this committee of old men who rarely watch basketball select teams. History has shown us that some combination of RPI, good wins, road wins, bad losses and perceived conference and nonconference schedule strength are what matters. And, in these factors, Tennessee doesn't grade out as a top 9 seed. Is it right? Probably not, but it is the "playbook" these guys use and have used for a while now.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Arles

The problem becomes in understanding how this committee of old men who rarely watch basketball select teams. History has shown us that some combination of RPI, good wins, road wins, bad losses and perceived conference and nonconference schedule strength are what matters. And, in these factors, Tennessee doesn't grade out as a top 9 seed. Is it right? Probably not, but it is the "playbook" these guys use and have used for a while now.

Yup. Same thing with Louisville - most everyone agreed they were one of the favorites to win the title, but based on resume alone they didn't deserve higher than a 4 seed (if they even deserved that). I guess it comes down to whether you think the committee should be seeding teams based on who they think are the best teams, or if a higher seed should be a reward for a successful season. I fall in the latter camp.

[sterlingice]

I think you're arguing past each other, tho. Arles is saying "the committee grades based on resume so Tennessee got the lower seed they deserved" while mauchow is saying "Tennessee is a much better team than an 11 seed". I think both are true.

However, the criteria for Selection Sunday seems like it's always been based much more on resume and not how a team looks so that's why Tennessee got an 11 seed even if they have shown they can play better than that.

That said, of the 16 teams left in the tournament, what would you rank Tennessee's road to get there (an Iowa team that barely made the tourney and was falling apart, a paper tiger they were favored against in UMass, and an upset-hung-over Mercer)? Even with 3 games, it's, at most, the 5th easiest route (Virginia, Louisville, San Diego State, UCLA might have had it easier).

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Yup. Same thing with Louisville - most everyone agreed they were one of the favorites to win the title, but based on resume alone they didn't deserve higher than a 4 seed (if they even deserved that). I guess it comes down to whether you think the committee should be seeding teams based on who they think are the best teams, or if a higher seed should be a reward for a successful season. I fall in the latter camp.

I think the committee has shown for years that they're in the latter camp and it makes for a better basketball season as it gives teams an incentive to play good teams in the non-conference in basketball rather than the football route of maybe one good non-con game and then a couple of absolute rummies.

SI

[Arles]

The reason Stanford got in over an SMU or Missouri is because they won at UCONN in the non-conference. You go to a "who looks better" and the non-conf schedule would take a massive hit. Then, it's basically a race to 20 wins and "looking good" for the final 2-3 weeks.

Plus, if you get a 10-11 and feel like you deserve a 3-4, you have a game against a 6-7 you should beat first and then one against a similar 2-3 team on a neutral court. Not the worst situation.

Do you think Tennessee would be happier with the route of an 8 seed and have a 2nd game matchup against Arizona/Florida? Maybe a 5-seed where they would face a scrappy 12 like Harvard and then a Michigan State/Louisville? I've always felt it's better to get a 10-11 over a 8-9. More upsets happen on those 2-3 lines than the 1.

[SportsDino]

Well my bracket is starting to fray around the edges after the second round, down to 99.6%, but with luck should be enough to take down the pool I am in (assuming MSU wins). I unfortunately could not predict both the Syracuse or Kansas upsets, and I decided to be contrarian and pick Wichita State over Kentucky in hopes I could eke out a few more second round points betting against the young'uns.

I'm going to move my bracket math into a dynasty thread with a new target of constructing a bracket pool likely to place in the top 20 of the billion dollar challenge.

[Butter]

For grieving father, Dayton run exposes, helps heal wounds - CBSSports.com

[Butter]

I'm expecting Dayton to lose tonight, but looking at it completely objectively, they have as good a shot as any to win the game.

Stanford has the size advantage, Dayton has better depth.
Stanford blocks more shots than Dayton, UD rebounds better.
Stanford has a very good defensive rating, UD just came off of beating 2 of the best defensive teams in the country.
Dayton beat Cal by 18 early in the season but they were without Richard Solomon... Stanford split with Cal.

Stanford beat New Mexico and Kansas to reach the Sweet 16... UNM has underachieved by seed in 3 of the last 4 NCAAs they'd reached, but Kansas had reached the Sweet 16 in 6 of the last 7 tournaments.

Dayton beat Syracuse and Ohio State, two teams that have had several recent deep runs in the tournament, but also 2 teams that were probably playing some of their worst basketball of the year at the end of the season.

Anyway, I'm nervous. I'm expecting a loss but hoping for one more win.

[Karlifornia]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

I'm expecting Dayton to lose tonight, but looking at it completely objectively, they have as good a shot as any to win the game.

Stanford has the size advantage, Dayton has better depth.
Stanford blocks more shots than Dayton, UD rebounds better.
Stanford has a very good defensive rating, UD just came off of beating 2 of the best defensive teams in the country.
Dayton beat Cal by 18 early in the season but they were without Richard Solomon... Stanford split with Cal.

Stanford beat New Mexico and Kansas to reach the Sweet 16... UNM has underachieved by seed in 3 of the last 4 NCAAs they'd reached, but Kansas had reached the Sweet 16 in 6 of the last 7 tournaments.

Dayton beat Syracuse and Ohio State, two teams that have had several recent deep runs in the tournament, but also 2 teams that were probably playing some of their worst basketball of the year at the end of the season.

Anyway, I'm nervous. I'm expecting a loss but hoping for one more win.

This game is a toss-up. Coming into the tourney, I fully expected a one-and-done from Stanford. Dayton has a good, deep team. This one should come down to who has fewer turnovers. If one team gets hot from three, it will definitely swing it. I'm expecting a pretty close game. It's for a trip to the Elite 8! How fun is that?

[B & B]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

I'm expecting Dayton to win tonight, but looking at it completely objectively, they have as good a shot as any to win the game.

Fixed

and I have a thousand reasons to back this Flyer team.

[mauchow]

Wisconsin getting a lot of good looks and missing -- Baylor getting very few good looks and missing as well. At least we aren't starting out behind like against Oregon.

[MrBug708]

There is the Johnny Dawkins the PAC-12 knows and loves...lol

[Karlifornia]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

There is the Johnny Dawkins the PAC-12 knows and loves...lol

You make it so easy to root for Florida

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Karlifornia

You make it so easy to root for Florida

You guys could do better and deserve it.

Florida by 17

[Karlifornia]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

You guys could do better and deserve it.

Florida by 17

Is smarm your natural setting, or did you have to be taken into the shop to perfect it?

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Karlifornia

Is smarm your natural setting, or did you have to be taken into the shop to perfect it?

I was thinking snarky. Trying to retool my passive aggressiveness into something else.

[Karlifornia]

Good god. Dayton has had an unbelievable amount of and-1's. Stanford needs to just grab their arms and hold them down if they're going to hack at the basket. Dayton is playing one hell of a game. Gonna be tuff.

[mauchow]

My nerves get to settle for two more days as Wisconsin is routing Baylor. Woot!

[sterlingice]

I hate to say it, but both of the early games have been pretty boring

SI

[mauchow]

The WI/Baylor game started a full half hour after the Stanford/Dayton game and it may finish sooner.

[Karlifornia]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I hate to say it, but both of the early games have been pretty boring

SI

I haven't watched BU/Wisconsin, but Dayton/Stanford has been interesting. Maybe not beautiful, but a pretty decent game.

[sterlingice]

Interesting contrast of styles but Dayton has kept Stanford at arm's length for almost all of the game

SI

[Karlifornia]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Interesting contrast of styles but Dayton has kept Stanford at arm's length for almost all of the game

SI

yeah. Coach Miller and his team have played great. They will be a tougher matchup for Florida/UCLA than Stanford would, sadly.

[Karlifornia]

I almost wish Stanford had just gone one and done. I got stars in my eyes. That's okay, though. Glad those seniors went out valiantly. Congrats to Dayton. They deserved that win without a shred of doubt in my mind. Great passing, great job taking care of the ball, and great finishing after contact.

[mauchow]

Only two timeouts (both by baylor) were used tonight in the BU/WI game -- haha advertisers, suck it!

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Karlifornia

I almost wish Stanford had just gone one and done. I got stars in my eyes. That's okay, though. Glad those seniors went out valiantly. Congrats to Dayton. They deserved that win without a shred of doubt in my mind. Great passing, great job taking care of the ball, and great finishing after contact.

I know I wished that

SI

[ColtCrazy]

Dayton played great team basketball. Impressive performance. Their bandwagon may gain some members.

[MrBug708]

Ucla was already going to struggle...but these refs are going to make it harder

[Matthean]

Arizona/Wisconsin would be solid and winnable by Wisconsin.

[mauchow]

Would gladly take SDSU........hope the 250 Badgers fans there are hanging around and going crazy for 'em.

[MrBug708]

Florida is having a good night to hit threes

[MrBug708]

And that's it for UCLA...oh well

[jbergey22]

Nothing overly surprising tonight. Dayton/Stanford maybe a coin flip but the other favs got it done. Also, Scott Drew is just an awful coach.

The match ups look very favorable for the #1s on Saturday unless Wisconsin can hit an abnormally high percentage on their 3 point attempts. They just dont match up well in the post with Arizona.

[Butter]

It's been a good run for the Flyer Faithful. Played their best game of the tournament last night for sure, scoring well and doing enough defensively to keep Stanford 6-12 points behind most of the 2nd half. Randle had 21 points but had to take 21 shots to get there, and they got Stanford's energy guy, Nastic, to foul out.

Last night was the first time a double digit seed that won their first 2 tournament games by 2 points or less won their 3rd tournament game... the previous 5 had all lost. I was afraid UD would be tight and let Stanford's size bother them, but we pushed the issue all night and finished at the basket maybe better than we have all year. Great game.

Freshman Kendall Pollard had his first double-digit scoring game of the year last night, and Jordan Sibert was on from long range. Once Kyle Davis hit a 3 (that was maybe his 5th of the year?) I knew it was probably going to be a good night.

Will be interesting to see how long we can hang with Florida. I give it about 10 minutes. We don't do well against a full court press, but luckily have played 3 teams that haven't run it at us at all (until late in the Syracuse game). We have a bunch of guys that can play at a similar level, so it's not so much fatigue as ball-handling I am worried about. Plus Florida can score much more easily than any of the 3 teams UD has faced so far.

Florida by 10 at the half, by 25 at the end. However it goes, this has been a great run.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Florida by 10 at the half, by 25 at the end. However it goes, this has been a great run.

I would be surprised. In many of the Florid games I have seen they let lesser opponents hang around then put them away in the end after grinding them down. At some point that will come back to bite them.