Snakebitten: A Real-Time MP FOF thread

[QuikSand]

Anyway... file is in. I think I am going to end up using at least my first two draft picks this year. Have a few intriguing targets who look likely to fall into the late first. So, that looks like fun.

Offers in to 11 free agents. Some serious, some flimflam, per usual. We'll see. The stage tomorrow morning will be very telling.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

The stage tomorrow morning will be very telling.

...so this teaser was leading up to the big first FA stage. I put in TWO monster offers to free agents, who wanted to settle up in rounds 2-3 (run at once in this league). So, I tried to thread the needle, and offer both guys bonus-heavy deals but affordable to me in the unlikely event we won out on both guys.

"Mr. Wonderful," despite being a non-affinity, is indeed wonderful, and I went in with a ton of bonus money hoping to outdo AVAILABLE but knowing that other human teams could get this guy over my offer if they really wanted. I am unconvinced that linebackers win championships, and on this team, investing monster money into a LB who doesn't even fit the chem system seems odd. I'm willing to let him walk, but if my $47m (or whatever it was) turns out to be enough, I'm game to keep him aboard as a "position we don't have to worry at all about for along time."

And, a very good veteran CB, an affinity fit but with a 0 personality, got even more of my money, like close to $60m/season. Just feel like this is a major roster need, after basically whiffing on two first round rookies last year - so this guy would step into CB1 job and it would give everyone relief, sort of like adding an ace to the pitching staff in baseball. If he had real chemistry gains, he'd be a perfect play, as it is, i still hope we get him even at this king's ransom.

(Sorry, drama would have been better had I posted this before the file was posted, but there's a longshot chance that a league rival reads this and uses it against me)

My ordered preference of outcomes here:
Sign just the CB
Sign just the LB
Sign both
Sign neither

[QuikSand]

Drum roll, please.

LB Harris (Mr. Wonderful) to Houston (human) for $55m/yr

CB Woodson to Atlanta (Ben E Lou) for $63m/yr (I offered $57m/yr)

Womp womp.



I genuinely have no idea what to do with my cap space now. Just lost arguably our second best player for nothing. Doing great here, everyone.

[QuikSand]

So, under a $662m cap, we have about 25% open. Plenty of money short term to pay guys like CB Wordehoff his $7m and whatnot... but we're shut out from both of the two guys who actually deeply interested us in the entire offseason.

[QuikSand]

fcuk

[QuikSand]

So, some news, at least. We put in a half hearted offer to move up to pick 2 overall, and it gets accepted. So, all 8 of our picks (including an extra late 1st) go out the door to get pick 1.2. There's a superstar RB there, he's probably the right play, but I'm committed enough to my chemistry system that I reach down to the #30 guy on the big board and take an affinity WR who looks good, came back as "very underrated" by my scout, and will be a chem fit. Need position, critical position, and good fit for our system. Good deal.

http://gml.fof-belco.com/forum/showt...ll=1#post56533

[QuikSand]

Free agency continues, a good update here.

G Donald Foreman, a had-to-have free agent, re-signs with us. Looks like we nailed it, too - $23m/yr beats out some fatter (but less bonus-heavy) offers from other teams, one worth $30/yr. So, yay. The OL ought to be okay, at least - losing stud C Castillo hurts, but we have five legit players if we count the one-trick pony run blocking C Borelli as being good enough, overall.

We also grab a late-career fill-in LB, given our immediate paucity there, in Caiden Layman. Honestly, if he had 6 years left in him I'd be thrilled with the skills combo - huge run D and special teams skills, just what I'd like. I doubt I will use him as a pass rusher at <240 lbs, but yowza. Anyhow, he will get some immediate field time for sure, likely at WILB.

[QuikSand]

Roster math, updated:

36 players signed
10 targets in free agency
01 draft pick coming
---
47 players

We still have a few more guys to be talking to. RB Lester and Podolyak, maybe for just one season each, are starting to make sense give our largely unusable cap space.

I put in some more offers to my own guys, not loving the "value" but just doing the math.

[QuikSand]

Free agency update.

Re-signed DT Ramon Calhoun, overpaying against no opposition. But had to get him, he's a solid starter, huge cohesion guy, and great for affinity.

Also re-up with PR Mathews, CB Wordehoff, and LB James - all solid returners. Mathews asks for real money every year, and I keep thinking I can improve on him... but last year (admittedly supported by a freakshow of special teams talent on our roster) he earned Special Teams POY by BELCo metrics, with 24.2 punt return average and 3 TDs. So, he's a high affinity guy who delivers on the one thing we ask of him... okay, then, welcome back.

Filling out roster predictably now. Overnight, up to 46 signed.

[QuikSand]

WR Corps is replenished, and (pending Bernal re-signing) should be...okay...for this year. Big drop in cohesion losing a veteran (and our only really productive guy from last season), but we look... okay.

WR1 Franz, will be asked to do a LOT but 21 endurance hurts
WR2 Rookie, hopefully carries his solid-at-everything ratings to play now
WR3 Barlow, maybe play him outside? Last year under 6 ypt, ugh
depth Bernal, Slade, Mathews - all good cohesion, chem, but really low RR

[QuikSand]

Wow, all that "unusable" cap space disappeared fast. I just lose track of the demands of players in a league with a $660m salcap. Just re-signing these pedestrian players at $7m and $9m really adds up. No clue what we would have done here if the two stud free agents had both signed... heh.

Anyway, my "max for new player" is down to $12m or so. Puts a guy like WR Barlow (decent depth contributor, decent P/K return man) and his 1yr $8m all-sal contract in jeopardy.

[QuikSand]

Also, RB Podolyak is signed for 1yr. Lester now appears unaffordable, will likely go land elsewhere on a minsal 1yr deal. Will probably fill in RB1/2 slot from undrafted rookie field.

[Chas in Cinti]

Podolyak for 1,500 this season?

[QuikSand]

I think his low endurance will keep him from posting serious numbers, but we'll see. Right now, I have him, an affinity gimp leader who is destined for the inactive roster, and a special-teams only FB who's just there for cohesion. FOF requires two RBs, so we will add someone. But certainly a chance for Podolyak to post... idano... 250-1125-7 and another 300 receiving yards?

[QuikSand]

	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	TE Darnell Barrett	2 years, $8,700,000 (Bonus: $20K. Salary: $4.3M, $4.3M.)	17	17
	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	SE Moe Bernal	1 year, $8,800,000 (Bonus: $0K. Salary: $8.8M.)	36	36
	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	SE Marco Conway	2 years, $6,170,000 (Bonus: $20K. Salary: $2.9M, $3.3M.)	29	29
	Baltimore Ravens	QuikSand	LCB Sammie Metzenbaum	1 year, $6,000,000 (Bonus: $0K. Salary: $6.0M.)	23	23

[QuikSand]

Ooh, that pasted in nicely, cool. Anyway, WR group basically set after this FA stage. missed out on a new guy who could have stepped in as our WR leader and maybe sot guy, but that's ok.


Not expecting a lot in the stage ahead, just two late offers out there. Anxious to see the rookie WR, I need him to at least be a solid B+.

[QuikSand]

Okay, into late free agency. 51 players signed, my "max offer" is just barely over veteran minsal. I'm still short a RB and OL from being a legal roster, that's a good look for a team that theoretically is a contender this year.

Rookie WR looks good. Not great, but pretty good. Like pick 1.12 good... not 1.02 good. So it goes.

We have ways to clear cap space if needed, a couple capouts left, and a couple veteran cuts that loom as reasonable. Depends on what additions we may have yet to make. I do not expect major fireworks.

[QuikSand]

(teaser: I'm taking a stab at re-signing RB Grant Lester on a one year deal)

[QuikSand]

Having trouble with the game file, but for right now...

QuikSand

BAL

RB Grant Lester (51/51) (Yr. 3)

re-signed as an unrestricted free agent

1yr, $11.0M (Bonus: $8.1M. Salary: $2.9M.)

[QuikSand]

Late free agency, we make some moves... we re-up for one fat year with RB Lester, feeling that was by far our best move short term. Some other alternatives below serve mostly to underscore that point:

LS Toby Tamburrino	Late FA Stage 1	signed as an unrestricted free agent from New Orleans: 2yrs, $6,970,000.	affinity OL
WLB Floyd Sumner	Late FA Stage 1	signed as an unrestricted free agent from Minnesota: 2yrs, $7,010,000.	needed body
RB Grant Lester	Late FA Stage 1	re-signed as an unrestricted free agent	dire need
LT Josiah Fonda	Late FA Stage 1	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $6,170,000.	cheap aff OL if we get him starts
FB Harvey Vera	Late FA Stage 1	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,040,000.	longshot to switch to RB
FL Aiden Dugas	Late FA Stage 1	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,040,000.	whoa, possible keeper w 74 BPR
K Glen Morris	Late FA Stage 1	signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $2,800,000.	cheap option
FS Allen Rivers	Late FA Stage 1	signed as a free agent: 1yrs, $6,000,000.	very interesting
FB Blaine Bunch	Late FA Stage 2	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $4,640,000.	nah
RB Vince Vaughn	Late FA Stage 3	signed as an unrestricted free agent from Tennessee: 2yrs, $7,360,000.	minsal Plan B for RB2 if no Lester...culd stick anyway w 99 pers
SS Erik Dugas	Late FA Stage 3	signed as an unrestricted free agent from Cincinnati: 2yrs, $6,170,000.	like him but needs starts for chem
LS Jermaine Tedeschi	Late FA Stage 3	turned down a contract offer: 2yrs, $4,660,000.
SS Harris Creel	Late FA Stage 3	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, $5,040,000.	like him, but starts tho
FS Juan Jefferson	Late FA Stage 3	signed as a free agent: 2yrs, ST$5,040,000.

[QuikSand]

sorry, still trying to work out when the formatting will import correctly...obv don't have that dragon slain yet

[QuikSand]

Into training camp, we grab one veteran player - but potentially a serious addition for us:

S Bobby Richmond is a 7th year vet, a decent zone-first safety (we've been running with only two guys active there), a tenured affinity guy with 76 personality, and rated 60 in kick returns, where we were basically voided out. For minimum salary, two years.

If there's a downside here, it's that him showing up gives us a stable third safety option, which might have been a shot for one of my young'ns to get some chemistry reps (starts). Less likely now, I reckon.

Great pickup. Richmond has very limited work actually returning kicks, but with the supporting cast here, I think a KR average of 30 yards or better is definitely within reach. He could be a very valuable player for us.

Hard for us to do better on a shoestring budget.

[QuikSand]

So, we drag 64 through camp. I typically have a lot of anguish on both cutdowns... this season, that's basically all deferred until the 53 stage. We'll get a look at the preseason movement for nearly everyone here.

Thought process on cuts to 60:
RB Vaughn - that 99 affinity is nice, can we keep him?
FB Bunch and Vera, both look useless CUT CUT 62
WR Conway and Dugas, can both these guys get fake starts this year?
OL, we have 8, can we force starts for T Fonda? Hard. CUT 61
LB Trent Myers, wait we will never get him starts, CUT 60
geez these rookie DBs look weaker than they did yesterday
ok, guess we'll carry a second kicker through preseason, for some reason

fin

[QuikSand]

Okay, preseason in the bag. What do we have now?

First, a quick eval of the rookie "class."

WR Stocz...my scout bumps him from potential 67 to 57. Dimwit league scout has him at 51 from 67. He's a mild bust. Should have known better than to move to pick 2 to take a guy listed 30th on the in-game big board. Alas. I got a 2nd round RB with a big trade-way-up pick. Dumbass.

WR Dugas jumps 40-48 by the league scout. He's good enough to make the team and force feed starts. Long term WR4, but with no major skills - no ST, no PR/KR, etc. Just a 76 BPR.

CB Creel - drops but my scout still likes him. I feel I could use a guy with 70+ bump and picks. But can I force him in for starts? Unlikely. So, a cut, for this veterans-first team, I guess.

S Jefferson - the least promising of my rookie DBs booms in preseason, now looks like a solid bump-first corner with great special teams potential. Same story, though, am i gonna start him?

S Rivers falls apart, easy cut...that $6m base salary easy come, easy go. Sucker.


Hmm... ouch, my veteran pickup S Richmond died on the vine, dammit. KR down to 32, most importantly. That sucks. CB Wordehoff has a 12 in KR, that's the only other non-void on the roster. Ugh.

[QuikSand]

Ok, I reluctantly cut S/KR Richmond. My last cut-down decision is between two DBs... Rumans, who has eroded to being basically un-playable but has a 98 personality affinity... and rookie CB Creel who looks like he could be useful on the field, and himself has an 85. Creel could develop into a role like we use Baskerville for today... bump specialist, can grab a pick here and there, and high chemistry. Baskerville has gotten lots of snaps over the years, even once he faded at ST beyond my high threshold.

[QuikSand]

File sent. Kept rookie Creel, who will start in base 3WR formations, which got us 9 starts last year, fingers crossed.

Are we an elite team? I'm treating this like the last year of that window. Teddy, by the way, is on an expiring contract. I'd be surprised if AVAILABLE wants him, would a human team with a ton of cap space? He's nothing special on paper.

Anyway... we'd better be at least good. Like, 11 wins good. Dammit, this'll suck if it all falls apart and all we got from it was a couple crappy wild card berths.

[Chas in Cinti]

Agreed, thought we were on a path to a bit more dominance... Hoping for a big result this season, and intrigued for the go-forward QB plan...

[QuikSand]

Okay, that's more like it... a #2 seed.

GML: Baltimore Ravens 2114

Quick observations:

The #1 pass offense in the league this year, Farrell w/a 92 rating - nice!
We're #3 in ypa there, very solid in a league with some all stars
Basically, that alone is enough to explain a bye week, tbh
My $20m tandem at RB was... meh...Podolyak better (?)
WR Franz stepped up as workhorse, his best season by far
Encouraging rookie season from WR Stocz, nearly 8 ypt
WR Bernal put up a legit non-awful season as a WR3, for once
WR Mathews remains the #1 PR league wide, avg 16.7 insane
Dead even on turnovers, I'll take that I guess (5 picks from backup QB)
Welcome to the bigtime, DE Banks and your 14 sacks for $45m
Soph CB Gallop played nickel all year, and posted sneaky great yr w 15 PD!
Frosh CB Creel got his starts, was not embarrassing, and stays long term

Ok then, at least one solid regular season in the bag. 11-4-1 isnt top-tier (that would be rgvicedo's Eagles) but I'm genuinely pleased with the output, for the first time in a while.

I would set us at about 11-1 to win it all. Not the very top, but not an absurd outcome, were it to happen out of the blue.

[QuikSand]

Without dragging too much here, the "plan" is to wait and see at QB. But, Teddy makes $40m now. LB Randolph drops by nearly $30m this year to next year. There will obviously be puts and takes, but that there should put us into the mix to afford Teddy to come back at anything reasonable, if it makes sense to do that.

[QuikSand]

Ouch. We not only go one and out, we go one and out HARD, getting blown out at home by Miami. Awful.

The #1 seeds face off in the title game, with the Eagles winning it all. Yay for them.

Moving on... dammit.

[QuikSand]

So, Chas, what now? I will presumably make a run at re-signing Teddy Tightends, to have continuity at QB. We have a decent roster around him, with outstanding chemistry, cohesion, and special teams. It feels like the right play here is just to ride it out... right?

Our only retirement is CB Metzenbaum, and he was a marginal contributor last season anyway - basically a CB5/6 gunner.

So... if we can sign Teddy, G Darby, and most of the other guys we let walk out into free agency, I can basically take another swing at it with this same team. Maybe we draft a RB to plug and play? (Maybe dump our later draft picks, as has become my usual move)

Any reason to tear this down now?

[QuikSand]

Fun side conversation... who is the NFL analog to Teddy?

Unheralded (late round pick), needed a change of scenery to get his real shot, developed into an effective system guy without a big arm, has a bit of mobility, lots of "intangibles," and somehow ends up among the top passers in the league, despite not really being highly regarded by scouts.

My thoughts are maybe Steve McNair? Late career Rich Gannon?

[QuikSand]

Okay, first FA stage is underway in GFL. Chas is on assignment. My 7yo son doesn't get into FOF because there aren't little guys running on the screen like in FM. So, I'll forge ahead solo.

Intriguing switch at DC for us... we had been with a guy who was GREAT at everything except scouting. In theory, our on-field play should have been maxed out with him. However, I now put at his feet the terrible DB picks we made a couple seasons ago in round one, and replaced him with a more balanced guy who can avoid being a rotten influence in scouting. Plus, he's Diego Wordehoff's dad or something, and that gives us some narrative too. Anyway... not much for development, but this is an old team, that's not our focus now.

[QuikSand]

By the way, the Jim/Diego connection is not lost on me, I'll fill in the narrative that Jim wanted Jim Jr. but his wife Lupe felt it better to keep the names eclectic, and thus little Diego (kinda Spanish for "Jimmy").

[QuikSand]

Headcount right now:

Cap is $674m, we have $160m in space, $136m max offer
We have a HUGE wave of guys with contracts ending this year, though

41 players signed
00 sure-thing RFA re-signings
07 draft picks in hand (standard set, slot 28)
---
48 players essentially in hand


Ideally, we will once again deal away much/most/all of our draft. I just want to keep all these high cohesion, high chemistry, high special teams guys rolling. I have been clearing space and forcing starts for a couple guys a year, but I think our best shot is stability. I say that without a legitimate QB signed for this year, I understand the WTF factor at play there.

[QuikSand]

Mental math on contract extensions - how much $ do we really have to work with here?

In descending order of "must extend, don't want to expose to free agency"

25 WR Franz (WR1 anchor to offense)
15 S Douglas (chem leader, really good starter)
08 LB Tanner (chem leader, really good starter)
06 S Anthony (solid starter, no depth)
10 DE Anthony (solid all around, great chem)
03 LB Layman (solid limited skills guy, fading a bit)
08 RT Tompkins (starter but meh talent and chem)
10 DE Banks (fading veteran)

So... if we re-up with the top six guys there, it likely costs me about $70m against this year's cap. So, let's not get all carries away with that max offer number of $136m. I am likely out of the market for a bigshot new addition, unless we go cheap at QB (like we miss out on Teddy).

This adds up as a "stay the course" offseason, yet again.

[QuikSand]

Okay, the real story here. Teddy Tightends is looking for 2/$120m. I can probably afford to pay him around that much. Would any other human team be interested?

He's rated 42/42 by my scout. Has a few standout ratings, in good places. He has been very productive, but we all know that the team plumbing has a lot to do with everything going well here in Birdland.

There is a conventional "stud QB" in free agency, an 11th year guy I rate at 69/69. He should fetch a huge haul, in this league with no cap crunch effects. He's asking for 3/275, but the top QB earners in this league make north of $100m/yr in cap hit, and I don't see why this guy wouldn't join them. Teddy is ranked 6th on the leaguewide sorted list, and as a 13th year guy, nobody's building around him (except me). So... my calculus is it's pretty unlikely another human run team will pursue him, and that AVAILABLE is only a possibility, not a certainty. I may have a clean shot. He wants to settle up in week 5, that will presumably shut me out of the early star-caliber bidding, but that's probably for the best anyhow.

Plan: pursue Teddy, with an offer designed to get him ahead of an AVAILABLE generated offer. Two years sounds fine.

[QuikSand]

I peruse the draft class. It doesn't look great overall, but there are players who would be really nice fits for us in the late first. The #1 guy on the big board is a maxed-out LB who looks awesome...I don't see how we could make that happen, though, and LB isn't the place I'd want to do it, even if I could. Ideally, a top target falls through a ways, and we use some later-draft capital to move up and grab him. A one or two pick draft would suit me just fine.

[QuikSand]

So, twist at RB. Our too-pricey guys from last season are now much more affordable.

Lester is asking for around $9m/yr, and Podolyak around $7m. That's a lot less than last year, where they started around $30m combined. So, it's in play that we just re-up with these two guys for this year, either short term or longer. We didn't blow anyone out of the water with our running game last season, but whispers: I don't give a rat's ass, just don't fumble a lot.

[MalcPow]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

whispers: I don't give a rat's ass, just don't fumble a lot.

[QuikSand]

Heh, nice.

Anyway...file is in for FA 1:2. Big stage. Small file. I think I am offering a total of 10 guys, including some of my nobody-wants-him likely returners. Two guys I'm semi-excited about. But all eyes on the second FA file, where we'll see whether we're back with Teddy, or cast adrift with... well, prolly with 27/27 cohesion guy Richie Bryant.

[Chas in Cinti]

LOL... sorry, busy weekend with the kids... didn't mean to let you down!

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Chas in Cinti

LOL... sorry, busy weekend with the kids... didn't mean to let you down!

Naw, you and me, we're good. My son and me... another story.

[QuikSand]

Okay, FA 1:2 in the bag. Only one result, one I already regret.

I decided to only make a half-hearted offer to OT Clyde Hopper, and I already feel like it was a mistake. The guy we have on hand at RT is a lesser talent, a lesser strength affinity, and in a year will probably demand the same money as this cat. If I had put in what I would have considered a legit offer, I would have prevailed and had myself a solid young-ish LT/RT for the next 8 seasons. Damn.

[QuikSand]

For today's file, basically the big news is we are making our offer to QB Teddy (goes to luck up actual last name, which is apparently not TightEnds) Farrell.

I expect we will be the only suitors. I'd rather have him at more than he's "worth" than watch him walk, so I'm making a pretty strong offer. He is worth a good deal to us, at least. Sort of like... idano...Ben Roethlisberger? Anyway, I'm hopeful and optimistic we will get him back on a 2 year deal in the next stage. But a lot pivots on that, to be honest.

[QuikSand]

Okay, we trade up in round one...just a few slots, but it only costs us our day three (picks 4-7). There's a DL I really like sitting there, but I draft for need, because this guy just looks too plug-and-play to skip here, given our team setup:

Originally Posted by GML Postbot

Baltimore: QuikSand takes RB Bernie Schweigert with the 1.22 pick.

So... given the things I value here, and my strive to "complete" this team, it's hard to do a ton better than this guy.



First - he appears to have at least solid ratings in the big three areas that wizened people seem to like in their run-the-ball backs... Breakaway Speed MAX, Hole Recognition 50+? and Endurance 60+? So, that's solid, at least. Like, a better set of ratings than anyone we have had in quite some time. RB1, CHECK.



Next - he's a kickoff returner. We put a guy with KR <10 out there last season. Not sure whether he'll live up to the 60+ projection, but even at 40-50 he'd be a huge gain there. So, another need, CHECK.



Also, he appears to be maxed out in special teams. We'll see, but on this roster you need to be very, very good - nobody without a max rating there at this stage need apply. So, gunner/specialist, CHECK.


Oh, by the way, he shows as "sociable" in-game, so useful chemistry asset, CHECK.




Also, his name is Jewish AF and that'll play well in Pikesville, just like it did down in Coral Gables. Welcome aboard, Bernie.

[Chas in Cinti]

He's no Podolyak... but then, who is...

[QuikSand]

Well, this guy almost definitely steps into the first-and-ten role but isn't much of a backfield target for the passing game... so if I re-up with one of our younger guys, Podolyak now has the clear advantage. So - you got that going for you.

[QuikSand]

Big news: Teddy is back.

Just as expected, we are his only suitor... $49m/yr over two seasons, and he will return to steer the ship. Big bonus brought down the price tag, but I wasn't gonna cut him anyhow. Yay.

We also re-up with DE Terrell Mealey, my classic Curly guy ("do one thing"). If there's room for one more theme here on this absurd team, maybe it's "economize on defense by using role players," and he's that guy. DE Banks is my all-around DE1, but maybe we could get by with Anthony as DE1, and then just a handful of cheap-ass run stuffers and ear pinners? Not spending $50m on an edge player would be nice, as this roster remains tough to hold together. Anyway, glad Mealey returned, and cheaper than had we extended him last season.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by GML Postbot

Baltimore: QuikSand takes K Mario Thomas with the 2.28 pick.

Had lots of meh options, went with a guy who might move the needle