Werewolf XCVI: The Dark One and The Order of Righteousness (GAME OVER EVIL WINS) - Page 16

Telle · 06-09-2009, 10:48 PM

Could Pass have some sort of ability that allowed him to escape? It didn't sound like it was done by the wolves.

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Yeah the math on that is tricky. I'm having a little trouble putting it together. But, according to my calculations, there's only a 4% chance that we learn 0 people's auras by Day 5. But remember just because we learn an aura doesn't find us a wolf. Randomly picking someone to lynch is going to produce better results until we've got a fairly long timetable.

I disagree since we're likely to kill a villager by lynching (just based on numbers). At least by jailing, we won't lose any of the good guys and we'll be establishing a COT.

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

If Pass isn't lynched or put back in, I am tempted to change the vote to him.

I'd be fine with you changing this vote. I wouldn't rule out changing it to a lynch either.

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

BK, considering changing your lynch candidate based on clap dropping out?

Sure. Give me someone else who is viable. Frankly I think clap is equally likely to drop out here as wolf or villager. I think we've made the mistake before of assuming a wolf wouldn't drop out.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

I disagree since we're likely to kill a villager by lynching (just based on numbers). At least by jailing, we won't lose any of the good guys and we'll be establishing a COT.

We MIGHT be establishing a COT. Not that I disagree with the jail plan.

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

I disagree since we're likely to kill a villager by lynching (just based on numbers). At least by jailing, we won't lose any of the good guys and we'll be establishing a COT.

We are lsoing good guys though through the nightly kill.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Sure. Give me someone else who is viable. Frankly I think clap is equally likely to drop out here as wolf or villager. I think we've made the mistake before of assuming a wolf wouldn't drop out.

No, but it means we have zero evidence at this point.

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

I disagree since we're likely to kill a villager by lynching (just based on numbers). At least by jailing, we won't lose any of the good guys and we'll be establishing a COT.

I just don't see your point here. With only a 20% chance to hit it will take forever to establish a COT.

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

We are lsoing good guys though through the nightly kill.

Yeah, I know. But you know what I was referring to (at least we are cannibalizing ourselves).

But, given that jailed people can be broken free willy-nilly changes a lot.

I almost think we should lynch Schmidty tonight, but doubt we have time to do so.

Schmidty · 06-09-2009, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

I'd be fine with you changing this vote. I wouldn't rule out changing it to a lynch either.

Oh, it would be a lynch.

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 10:53 PM

I would be willing to lynch KWhit based on what I perceive as him selling faulty logic that he should no bettert hen

Telle · 06-09-2009, 10:54 PM

I'm not fond of voting Pass until we have a chance to hear from him about his breakout. I wouldn't mind moving off of Abe, but there's not currently another jail candidate other than myself and Pass.

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:54 PM

OK as I actually do this out the math is looking better for finding an aura of 1 person. It actually looks that assuming we have 2 people in jail it's nearly 50/50 that we find out one of them on Night 3. HOWEVER that doesn't reflect the fact that the overhwelming odds are that we find a villager.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:54 PM

I think we deal with Schmidty tomorrow. He's probably going to do whatever he wants today anyway.

Danny · 06-09-2009, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Yeah, I know. But you know what I was referring to (at least we are cannibalizing ourselves).

But, given that jailed people can be broken free willy-nilly changes a lot.

I almost think we should lynch Schmidty tonight, but doubt we have time to do so.

No point in lynching Schmidty yet as there is no one trusted to replace him with.

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 10:54 PM

can I vote to jail and lynch?

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 10:54 PM

Lynch KWhit

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I just don't see your point here. With only a 20% chance to hit it will take forever to establish a COT.

Well, depends on what you mean by forever, but with more people in the jail, the numbers move in our favor pretty quickly since it's 20% for each person. If we were to get 2-3 people in there and keep moving them in, we could be looking at at a handful of identifications happening.

But then there's the problem of them randomly escaping like Pass.

Sigh.

Barkeep49 · 06-09-2009, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I would be willing to lynch KWhit based on what I perceive as him selling faulty logic that he should no bettert hen

What's the faulty logic? With me it's just been not understanding probability.

Autumn · 06-09-2009, 10:55 PM

unvote jail Abe (clap)
vote jail passacaglia

I want ot get this in while I'm tring to catch up on these shenanigans.

dubb93 · 06-09-2009, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Lynch KWhit

This vote is not valid.

Schmidty · 06-09-2009, 10:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

I think we deal with Schmidty tomorrow. He's probably going to do whatever he wants today anyway.

Maybe I will, Tyrith.

Schmidty · 06-09-2009, 10:56 PM

I don't like your threatening suggestion one bit, btw.

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I would be willing to lynch KWhit based on what I perceive as him selling faulty logic that he should no bettert hen

Huh? Actually my logic is perfectly sound (with the caveat that there's nothing in the rules to suggest that Pass could just escape when he did).

And my understanding of probability is fine too.

Schmidty · 06-09-2009, 10:57 PM

Are you oushing me to lynch Pass, Tyrith?

dubb93 · 06-09-2009, 10:57 PM

Day 2 Vote Count:

Abe/Clap Jail - 6 - USFL (528), Telle (618), DT (624), CR (626), KWhit (666)
BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
Abe/Clap Lynch - 3 - Saldana (503), The Jackal (560), BK (698)
USFL Lynch - 2 - Path (557), Schmidty (558)
Pass Jail - 2 - Tyrith (718), Autumn (770)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Clap (656)
Telle Jail - 1 - Danny (736)

Yet to Vote: Pass, Render

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I don't like your threatening suggestion one bit, btw.

Deal with doesn't mean lynch. Deal with means figure out what to do with. This is nothing we haven't said before. KWhit wants you dead now, as an alternative.

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Are you oushing me to lynch Pass, Tyrith?

I'd rather not - this seems like something that needs to be talked about. But I really don't like putting Abe in jail; this whole clap thing was just a mess.

Schmidty · 06-09-2009, 10:58 PM

Sorry Tyrith, but my radar is going off.

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Well, depends on what you mean by forever, but with more people in the jail, the numbers move in our favor pretty quickly since it's 20% for each person. If we were to get 2-3 people in there and keep moving them in, we could be looking at at a handful of identifications happening.

But then there's the problem of them randomly escaping like Pass.

Sigh.

but you aren't factoring in the time it takes to get 3 people in jail! and even then, it is 3 20% chances to hit!

Do you play poker?

How many times have you had 44 and your opponent had AA, thats the odds we have here of the king hitting.

Telle · 06-09-2009, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

Day 2 Vote Count:

Abe/Clap Jail - 6 - USFL (528), Telle (618), DT (624), CR (626), KWhit (666)
BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
Abe/Clap Lynch - 3 - Saldana (503), The Jackal (560), BK (698)
USFL Lynch - 2 - Path (557), Schmidty (558)
Pass Jail - 2 - Tyrith (718), Autumn (770)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Clap (656)
Telle Jail - 1 - Danny (736)

Yet to Vote: Pass, Render

That's 5 for Abe/Clab Jail, not 6

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

This vote is not valid.

can you at least tell me why?

RendeR · 06-09-2009, 10:59 PM

Vote Jail PASSACAGLIA

Telle · 06-09-2009, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

can you at least tell me why?

Probably because you didn't unvote Barkeep jail.

RendeR · 06-09-2009, 11:00 PM

had to get that in, not sure it as gonna make a difference though, I'm fine with the abe vote working.

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I would be willing to lynch KWhit based on what I perceive as him selling faulty logic that he should no bettert hen

Expand on this, as I think I have been completely logical and striving to do what was clearly best for the village (based on what we knew of the rules).

Autumn · 06-09-2009, 11:01 PM

no, never mind

unvote pass for jail
vote abe (clap) to jail

Danny · 06-09-2009, 11:01 PM

Pass was freed and didn't even bother being here for it. The whole thing seems odd. I'm still not sure what to make of it.

Danny · 06-09-2009, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

no, never mind

unvote pass for jail
vote abe (clap) to jail

Two minutes too late

Autumn · 06-09-2009, 11:01 PM

I'm not sure what the heck is going on, but I guess it's possible clap flaked out and the wolves told him to get in here and get out of the lynch. Best to have him in jail (abe) and see.

Danny · 06-09-2009, 11:02 PM

The amount of people here with no movement bodes well for this being villager/villager.

KWhit · 06-09-2009, 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

but you aren't factoring in the time it takes to get 3 people in jail! and even then, it is 3 20% chances to hit!

Do you play poker?

How many times have you had 44 and your opponent had AA, thats the odds we have here of the king hitting.

But if you have 3 people with that hand, the odds are that one of them will beat AA.

And early on in the game we're more likely to be lynching villagers than we are wolves.

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Expand on this, as I think I have been completely logical and striving to do what was clearly best for the village (based on what we knew of the rules).

you keep harping on building a CoT by sending people to jail, I am saying that will take way to long, not sure why you don't get that

dubb93 · 06-09-2009, 11:02 PM

Day 2 Final Vote Count:

Abe/Clap Jail - 5 - USFL (528), Telle (618), DT (624), CR (626), KWhit (666)
BK Jail - 4 - Lathum (497), MartinD (527), Sndvls (532), lerriuqs (547)
Abe/Clap Lynch - 3 - Saldana (503), The Jackal (560), BK (698)
Pass Jail - 3 - Tyrith (718), Autumn (770), RendeR (783)
USFL Lynch - 2 - Path (557), Schmidty (558)
KWhit Lynch - 1 - Clap (656)
Telle Jail - 1 - Danny (736)

Did Not Vote: Pass

Tyrith · 06-09-2009, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

The amount of people here with no movement bodes well for this being villager/villager.

One side is clap. The other side is who, pass?

Autumn · 06-09-2009, 11:03 PM

damn. I've been here all day and it was like a ghost town, then you guys posted like three pages while I talked to my wife, sheesh.

Lathum · 06-09-2009, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

But if you have 3 people with that hand, the odds are that one of them will beat AA.

And early on in the game we're more likely to be lynching villagers than we are wolves.

I get that, but it will be day 4 by the time we get to that point. And then what, maybe 1 person is cleared?

Danny · 06-09-2009, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

you keep harping on building a CoT by sending people to jail, I am saying that will take way to long, not sure why you don't get that

It will definitely take far too long while the wolves pick us out with their night kills. The jail needs to be an extra bonus we can use and maybe get lucky on, but lynch needs to be the foundation for our play.

Danny · 06-09-2009, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

One side is clap. The other side is who, pass?

Barkeep, I don't know what to make of Pass yet.

Danny · 06-09-2009, 11:04 PM

BTW, if it was any other player who said the things Clap said, he would have had 10 lynch votes.

06-09-2009, 10:56 PM	#773
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	I don't like your threatening suggestion one bit, btw. __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

06-09-2009, 10:57 PM	#775
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	Are you oushing me to lynch Pass, Tyrith? __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

06-09-2009, 10:58 PM	#779
Schmidty Coordinator Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Early, TX	Sorry Tyrith, but my radar is going off. __________________ Just beat the devil out of it!!! - Bob Ross

06-09-2009, 10:59 PM	#783
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	Vote Jail PASSACAGLIA __________________ http://wotlabs.net/s...8/signature.png http://wotlabs.net/sig_dark/na/banichi18/signature.png

06-09-2009, 11:00 PM	#785
RendeR Coordinator Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: Buffalo, NY	had to get that in, not sure it as gonna make a difference though, I'm fine with the abe vote working. __________________ http://wotlabs.net/s...8/signature.png http://wotlabs.net/sig_dark/na/banichi18/signature.png

06-09-2009, 10:48 PM	#751
Telle College Starter Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Buffalo, NY	Could Pass have some sort of ability that allowed him to escape? It didn't sound like it was done by the wolves.

06-09-2009, 10:53 PM	#761
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I would be willing to lynch KWhit based on what I perceive as him selling faulty logic that he should no bettert hen

06-09-2009, 10:54 PM	#762
Telle College Starter Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Buffalo, NY	I'm not fond of voting Pass until we have a chance to hear from him about his breakout. I wouldn't mind moving off of Abe, but there's not currently another jail candidate other than myself and Pass.

06-09-2009, 10:54 PM	#763
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	OK as I actually do this out the math is looking better for finding an aura of 1 person. It actually looks that assuming we have 2 people in jail it's nearly 50/50 that we find out one of them on Night 3. HOWEVER that doesn't reflect the fact that the overhwelming odds are that we find a villager.

06-09-2009, 10:54 PM	#764
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	I think we deal with Schmidty tomorrow. He's probably going to do whatever he wants today anyway.

06-09-2009, 10:54 PM	#766
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	can I vote to jail and lynch?

06-09-2009, 10:54 PM	#767
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Lynch KWhit

06-09-2009, 10:55 PM	#770
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	unvote jail Abe (clap) vote jail passacaglia I want ot get this in while I'm tring to catch up on these shenanigans.

06-09-2009, 11:01 PM	#787
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	no, never mind unvote pass for jail vote abe (clap) to jail

06-09-2009, 11:01 PM	#788
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Pass was freed and didn't even bother being here for it. The whole thing seems odd. I'm still not sure what to make of it.

06-09-2009, 11:01 PM	#790
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I'm not sure what the heck is going on, but I guess it's possible clap flaked out and the wolves told him to get in here and get out of the lynch. Best to have him in jail (abe) and see.

06-09-2009, 11:02 PM	#791
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	The amount of people here with no movement bodes well for this being villager/villager.

06-09-2009, 11:03 PM	#796
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	damn. I've been here all day and it was like a ghost town, then you guys posted like three pages while I talked to my wife, sheesh.

06-09-2009, 11:04 PM	#800
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	BTW, if it was any other player who said the things Clap said, he would have had 10 lynch votes.

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