The 2024 Presidential Nomination Thread

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Been reading through all of this today, and I’m impressed and still sad by it.

Most of you guys are way smarter than me, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. The thing that I don’t understand is how smart people can still play party versus party stuff. Obviously, you all know every politician is still bought and paid for. There are no Mr. Smiths Going to Washington anymore. So how do people still Jedi Mind-trick themselves into thinking one party is intrinsically any better than the other? Cognitive dissonance gets thrown around by everyone now, but isn’t that the definition? Surely, like me, most people vote based on one or two issues that they agree with and suck it up and vote for that politician. Because they don’t agree with every single thing another human stands for, right? I truly can’t wrap my head around voting at all otherwise.

And if that was all poorly worded, I apologize.

Read back your own words and I believe you'll find the basic answer to what you're asking.

Let's set aside the fucking drones -- in both parties -- that don't have two brain cells to rub together. As I've said many times, NOBODY gets elected without votes from a certain number of complete idiots.

Setting them aside though, there's still plenty of people who are pretty consistently aligned with one major party or the other, typically only varying when they can't manage to hold their nose tightly enough to vote for a stray candidate here and there.

The answer to those is right there in what you said yourself.


If your question is

The thing that I don’t understand is how smart people can still play party versus party stuff

Then you answered it already:

Surely, like me, most people vote based on one or two issues that they agree with and suck it up and vote for that politician

Right. And when the right answers on those one or two key issues consistently align with candidates from one party or the other, well ... after a while it doesn't take a house to fall on someone to for them to figure out where the highest chance of your issues/party alignment resides.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Been reading through all of this today, and I’m impressed and still sad by it.

Most of you guys are way smarter than me, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. The thing that I don’t understand is how smart people can still play party versus party stuff. Obviously, you all know every politician is still bought and paid for. There are no Mr. Smiths Going to Washington anymore. So how do people still Jedi Mind-trick themselves into thinking one party is intrinsically any better than the other? Cognitive dissonance gets thrown around by everyone now, but isn’t that the definition? Surely, like me, most people vote based on one or two issues that they agree with and suck it up and vote for that politician. Because they don’t agree with every single thing another human stands for, right? I truly can’t wrap my head around voting at all otherwise.

And if that was all poorly worded, I apologize.

It isn't that one party is intrinsically better than the other. It is that they are nonetheless pretty different.

The GOP wants to ban abortion b/c they consider it infanticide.
The Dems want to legalize abortion because they consider it health care.

The GOP wants to lower taxes on rich people to spur investment and cut funding for poor people to reduce dependency on the welfare state.
The Dems want to tax rich people to reduce the deficit and pay for services and increase spending for poor people to help them out of poverty.

The GOP wants to reduce regulations to free up businesses to operate without needless red tape.
The Dems want aggressive regulations to protect health and welfare.

The GOP wants to outlaw gender affirming health care for trans youth because they think that it is liberal brainwashing.
The Dems want to protect gender affirming healthcare for trans youth because they think that it is a net positive.

The GOP thinks that funding the Ukraine war is a waste of American money.
The Dems want to fund the Ukraine war to stop Putin.

The parties are really different.

[RainMaker]

I don't think Dems actually support half that stuff. They absolutely don't care about taxing the rich. They don't care about welfare programs. And they haven't exactly put up much of a fight on abortion. The party still supports pro-life candidates if they fundraise for the party.

Also the GOP is correct that Ukraine money is a waste. Some tepidly support it because it's a welfare check for the defense industry. But it's essentially lighting our tax dollars on fire.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Read back your own words and I believe you'll find the basic answer to what you're asking.

Let's set aside the fucking drones -- in both parties -- that don't have two brain cells to rub together. As I've said many times, NOBODY gets elected without votes from a certain number of complete idiots.

Setting them aside though, there's still plenty of people who are pretty consistently aligned with one major party or the other, typically only varying when they can't manage to hold their nose tightly enough to vote for a stray candidate here and there.

The answer to those is right there in what you said yourself.


If your question is

Then you answered it already:


Right. And when the right answers on those one or two key issues consistently align with candidates from one party or the other, well ... after a while it doesn't take a house to fall on someone to for them to figure out where the highest chance of your issues/party alignment resides.

Thanks for your post, because you’re right and guess I did answer my own question. Sometimes I can’t see the forest for all the trees in my reasoning.

[cuervo72]

Trump: And you will have the rogue cop, the bad apple, and perhaps you'll have that also with president But there's nothing you can do about that. You're going to have to give the president immunity. I hope The Supreme Court will has the courage to do that pic.twitter.com/QbBNF8zpOF

— Acyn (@Acyn) January 21, 2024

[JPhillips]

DeSantis out and endorses Trump.

It's a cult, afterall.

[GrantDawg]

Yes, DeSantis may have trashed his own state to score points with the base. Yes, DeSantis started a blood feud with a theme park. Yes, DeSantis talked to normal humans like a newborn Ferengi. But the important thing is he got absolutely nothing.

— Mike Drucker (@MikeDrucker) January 21, 2024

[albionmoonlight]

Trump endorsement makes sense. He was the Trumpy candidate.

In 2016, people assured us that the GOP nominated Trump because too many non-Trump candidates stayed in. That is not the case this year. Let us see what the non-Democrat electorate really wants.

[Lathum]

Ron DeSantis should have to carry his Presidential run to term even if it threatens the life of his party.

— Dana Goldberg (@DGComedy) January 21, 2024

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Trump endorsement makes sense. He was the Trumpy candidate.

In 2016, people assured us that the GOP nominated Trump because too many non-Trump candidates stayed in. That is not the case this year. Let us see what the non-Democrat electorate really wants.

It will be Trump easily. Who are the DeSantis supporters that are going to back Haley now? I don't think there are many. I would imagine most DeSantis supporters look at him like Trump without the baggage. Now that he is gone they will hold their nose and back Trump over a woman.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Trump endorsement makes sense. He was the Trumpy candidate.

In 2016, people assured us that the GOP nominated Trump because too many non-Trump candidates stayed in. That is not the case this year. Let us see what the non-Democrat electorate really wants.

This is not really a question that we don't know the answer to. They want Trump. At one time Trump was a lot like Bernie in the Democratic Party (strong 35-40% of the part with the rest firmly against). That's just not the case anymore. He holds more like 55-65% of the parry now, along with most of the leadership. His only path of losing is if the minority of the party joined with the majority of Independents, many of whom are former Republicans ran out of the party by Trump. States that allow independents to vote in their choice of primaries along with states that had open primaries that allowed Democrats to vote on the Republican side are his only possible danger, and even that danger is tiny. Why do you think big Republican donors are propping up Dean Phillips? They were hoping to keep Democrats from voting the Republican primaries in open primary states. Anything to try to keep Trump ahead.
This will all be moot by the time the South Carolina primary is over. It looks like he is going to roll that with about 60% of the vote. If Hailey can't prevent a majority vote in her home state versus Trump, then she is done.

[Thomkal]

Thank god we don't have to live through a DeSantis Presidency

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

DeSantis out and endorses Trump.

It's a cult, afterall.

[Ksyrup]

I feel like it was pretty on point that DeSantis got out not only on a weekend, not only a Sunday, not only an NFL playoff Sunday, but also while a Florida team played in said playoffs.

This was a masterclass in taking the "news dump" to new heights of trying to be buried.

[Ghost Econ]

I'm just wondering if DeSantis will now revert to his previous height.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

DeSantis out and endorses Trump.

It's a cult, afterall.

Hey! You guys promised to keep him out of this state until at least the GOP convention! WTF?! At least keep him campaigning for Trump in every state but Florida.

[BYU 14]

Apparently the cult is one of forgiveness

“I just want to thank Ron and congratulate him on doing a very good job,” Trump said at the outset of his remarks. “He was very gracious, and he endorsed me. I appreciate that, and I also look forward to working with Ron.” Trump described DeSantis as "a really terrific person.”

[Edward64]

Welp, up to Haley now.

Hoping for a strong 2nd place tomorrow.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Welp, up to Haley now.

Hoping for a strong 2nd place tomorrow.

she's losing her home state which is the next primary by a lot to Trump. Can't see her embarassing herself with the result there-she drops out before then i think.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Apparently the cult is one of forgiveness

“I just want to thank Ron and congratulate him on doing a very good job,” Trump said at the outset of his remarks. “He was very gracious, and he endorsed me. I appreciate that, and I also look forward to working with Ron.” Trump described DeSantis as "a really terrific person.”

A week or so after chiding people for kissing the ring... he kissed the ring.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

A week or so after chiding people for kissing the ring... he kissed the ring.

And Haley will as well. Trump is the Republican party.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Thank god we don't have to live through a DeSantis Presidency

He’s like 45 years old which makes him viable for the next 8 or so cycles.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by stevew

He’s like 45 years old which makes him viable for the next 8 or so cycles.

I don't think he has any real chance. The dude is just so unlikable. For all his warts Trump would probably be fun to play a round of golf with. DeSantis acts like he hates his supporters and probably does.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I don't think he has any real chance. The dude is just so unlikable. For all his warts Trump would probably be fun to play a round of golf with. DeSantis acts like he hates his supporters and probably does.

As much as I dislike the guy, I would not say he has no real chance. I expect him to make a Senate run next probably going after Rubio in 2028. Add to that a spot in a Trump administration if Trump is elected and he is right back in the mix.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by stevew

He’s like 45 years old which makes him viable for the next 8 or so cycles.

That's ok, pretty sure he'll still be a horrible candidate for them all

[Ghost Econ]

I mean, Rafael Cruz was 45 8 years ago and I don't think anyone sees him as a viable future President anymore.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

I mean, Rafael Cruz was 45 8 years ago and I don't think anyone sees him as a viable future President anymore.

Except him and his family

[Atocep]

High profile, failed presidential runs tend to put a ceiling on you. See: Cruz, Rubio, Jindal, etc.

The issue for DeSantis is he ran one of the worst campaigns ever and wasn't remotely competitive by the time he joined the race and didn't do anything particularly well. Going against Trump with his personality was a bad decision. If he had waited until 2028 he would have had a chance to back into the nomination without much competition, but i think he's done as a serious candidate moving forward.

I thought he could challenge Trump but I didn't know he was unable to organize and had no idea his personality was going to be as damaging for him as it has been. He excels at attacking people without the means to fight back, but he's shown he either folds or avoids direct confrontation with those that do.

[Ksyrup]

He ran for president on a similar campaign to the campaign Matt Bevin ran for governor of Kentucky in 2019 (as an incumbent). He leaned hard into Trumpism, figuring he could energize the same people who overwhelmingly voted for Trump by being mean-spirited and performative, figuring those same people would find him just as "entertaining" as Trump. Except, neither of them had the personality to pull it off like Trump, and they embarrassed themselves over and over. And so DeSantis failed miserably to capitalize on winning Florida while Trump was coming off of losing to Biden and mired in multiple criminal investigations, and Bevin was the only Republican to lose a statewide office in a state that voted +30 for Trump in 2016.

[Edward64]

I think he's odds are against him.

But never say never, politics is weird. Joe ran twice in 1988 and 2008. He became VP which positioned him after Hillary crashed.

Or put a little differently, he has a better shot at the GOP nomination than Bernie has with the Dems.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

As much as I dislike the guy, I would not say he has no real chance. I expect him to make a Senate run next probably going after Rubio in 2028. Add to that a spot in a Trump administration if Trump is elected and he is right back in the mix.

You're in the state so I'll defer to you, but it seems like a lot of his constituents have really soured on him after his reelection because of his culture was BS and not actually governing. Can he even beat Rubio at this point?

Based off the last Trump admin I wouldn't consider a spot on team Trump as a positive thing. Factor in his personality isn't going to change and IMO he is toast for 2028 and beyond.

[JPhillips]

He may have a future in FL, but he's done nationally. The more he campaigned the less people liked him.

[RainMaker]

I think he's toast. His term ends in 2026, so even if he were to run in 2028, he'd have been out of office and the spotlight for a couple years. His 2022 win when Republicans had a disastrous midterm was his chance, but he was too much of a pussy to come out swinging against Trump. Didn't help that he hired some of the weirdest and most repulsive campaign staffers who thought you'd reach boomers in Iowa with 4chan memes.

Florida is on a downward trajectory too. Education is in the shitter and it's near impossible to get your home insured. And perhaps most importantly, the more he is seen by the national public, the more people dislike him.

Trump was right about him. He's an empty suit who rode Trump's coattails into office.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

You're in the state so I'll defer to you, but it seems like a lot of his constituents have really soured on him after his reelection because of his culture was BS and not actually governing. Can he even beat Rubio at this point?

Based off the last Trump admin I wouldn't consider a spot on team Trump as a positive thing. Factor in his personality isn't going to change and IMO he is toast for 2028 and beyond.

He's still popular but I would say the same if Satan had a (R) next to his name. The fact that he kissed the ring helps if the GOP remains as it is. The 2022 gubernatorial race spoiled him for the primary. That was the same campaign he ran then rolling his wife out near the end to serve as his soft side. The difference is the Dems decided on GOP lite with its nominee. The race against Rubio would be interesting. Little Ricky vs Ron DeSanctimonious with the big question being who would Trump endorse.

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think he's toast. His term ends in 2026, so even if he were to run in 2028, he'd have been out of office and the spotlight for a couple years. His 2022 win when Republicans had a disastrous midterm was his chance, but he was too much of a pussy to come out swinging against Trump. Didn't help that he hired some of the weirdest and most repulsive campaign staffers who thought you'd reach boomers in Iowa with 4chan memes.

Florida is on a downward trajectory too. Education is in the shitter and it's near impossible to get your home insured. And perhaps most importantly, the more he is seen by the national public, the more people dislike him.

Trump was right about him. He's an empty suit who rode Trump's coattails into office.

His term actually ends in 2027 as he officially took office again in 2023, so it is not that much of a gap. I have to believe he starts the personality makeover immediately. The people who ran his campaign won't be allowed anywhere near any other campaign again much less his.

I mean enough people voted for him to twice be elected as Governor and three times to the House including twice prior to Trump's election. I am not prepared to write off anyone who has shown a willingness to kiss the ring.

[Lathum]

I get what you’re saying but you can only put so much lipstick on a pig. He may appeal to Floridians but a large part of the country looks at him like an alien.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

I mean, Rafael Cruz was 45 8 years ago and I don't think anyone sees him as a viable future President anymore.

Joe Biden ran for president in 1988

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I get what you’re saying but you can only put so much lipstick on a pig. He may appeal to Floridians but a large part of the country looks at him like an alien.

Because he acts like one. When you strip away the government-backed performative power play/bully bullshit, there's a weird little man left.

[JPhillips]

Ron DeSantis the minute he dropped out of the presidential race: pic.twitter.com/dQqmtjEp29

— eric (@MrEAnders) January 22, 2024

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Because he acts like one. When you strip away the government-backed performative power play/bully bullshit, there's a weird little man left.

This is it in a nutshell. When your entire political persona surrounds itself around kids' sexuality and genitalia, you're just a weirdo to most of the country. Might play with sexually emasculated boomers and closet cases in Florida, but I don't think there is much appeal outside of that state.

[RainMaker]

I don't know if anyone else gets ads for RFJ Jr, but they are incredibly weird. Every ad I've seen is him complaining about not getting secret service protection. While I understand he might be upset with that, I don't know if there is a huge crop of voters who's number 1 issue is whether RFK Jr has secret service protection. I also imagine that the ad money for that could be used for protection.

Not much to add on that except it seems like a weird strategy. Especially for someone who's family should absolutely not trust the secret service.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't think Dems actually support half that stuff.

Party A wants to turn the country into a Christian totalitarian state with the Christian equivalent of Sharia Law led by a failed real estate developer with a vindictiveness obsession.

Politican Movement C (not actually a party, but a collection of folks who are good at blogging) wants all the stuff that albion said Democrats want.

Party B wants some sort of mushy middle between those two polls.

Only Party A and Party B can conceivably win national elections because of the way our system is set up, and RainMaker would be OK with years of A to potentially have C emerge from the smoking remains of civilization.

[RainMaker]

Party B is aiding and abetting a genocide.

[RainMaker]

lol

Trump, as he’s inviting Tim Scott on stage with him: “He’s engaged to be married. We never thought this was going to happen. What’s going on?”

— Kate Sullivan (@KateSullivanDC) January 23, 2024

[GrantDawg]

All 6 votes from Dixville Notch were cast for Nikki Haley. She immediately called for New Hampshire to stop the count, and with 100 percent of the vote, she said the only way she could lose at this point was widespread fraud.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[JPhillips]

Last night's Boston Globe poll of NH has it 60/38 Trump to Haley.

This might be Haley's last day.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

All 6 votes from Dixville Notch were cast for Nikki Haley. She immediately called for New Hampshire to stop the count, and with 100 percent of the vote, she said the only way she could lose at this point was widespread fraud.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

I hope this actually happened.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Party B is aiding and abetting a genocide.

You say that as if that's a point of differentiation with Party A, culpable of aiding and abetting many other genocides over the years, to say nothing of offering a home for white supremacists, a leader who copies rhetoric from Hitler, and whatever Stephen Miller was up to in the White House.

[Ksyrup]

I hate the media's framing of NH yesterday. Big test for Trump! What? He is going to comfortably win, and Haley will pull out before she can be embarrassed in her home state. There is nothing transformative taking place right now. This was always going to happen. Trump isn't gaining momentum, or passing tests, he's just continuing the same bulldozer over dying daisies he's been doing in the GOP for 8 years.

[GrantDawg]

They are looking for any story. Presidential primary season is their biggest money-maker season, but this one is just a huge clunker. It was over before it ever began, so they are trying to make it appear not so. The big sale here is that Haley is going to pull some kind d of miracle and pull such a huge number of independents that she can somehow win or make it close. It just isn't going to happen, but the media is trying to will it into existence.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[flere-imsaho]

GD has it - the usual horse race aspect of this in past year was probably a huge revenue generator and this one is going to be a complete dud.